Viewing Month: December 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 02, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 02, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - December 02, 1949
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Tabell Market Letter 3S WALL STREET, NEW YORK 5, N Y. the fact 'l!l.114ffi.e rail average was considerably behind the industrials. The letter concluded with the following Would not be surprised to see the rails take over the leadership at some time in the not too distant future. In fact, selected rails could move ahead while industrials undergo an irregular consOlidation. The rails started their move from the noon hour price of 47.98 on Thursday and closed at 50.29 on Friday. The intra-day high was 50.42 which was just about equal to the October high of 50.40. A long head and shoulders bottom appears to be forming with a left shoulder in the 47-52 range and a head at the June low of 41. The right shoulder appears to be forming now. Such a formation should result in substantially higher levels when the pattern is completed. The present advance should continue to about the 52 level. After a consolidation for a time, the really im- portant move could start. Before this happens I believe some of the poorer acting rails must broaden their potential base patterns. The industrial average reached an intra-day high of 194.16 which is just a shade below the November 23rd high of 194.35. The strength of the past few days may carry somewhat further but I would be cautious regarding new purchases at this level. I believe a better buying opportunity may be available later in the month. Long term positions should be retained. While the rails could work somewhat higher, I believe shorter term traders are justified in taking profits on further strength. Also suggest , profit-taking on several other issues in our recommended list. '. '. American Power & Light Chicago, Rock Island Denver & Rio Grande Illinois Central Phelps Dodge Shell Oil Last Sale 14 40 29 7/8 34 48 40 3/8 Approximate Originally Recommended Level 9 3/4 33 1/2 24 – 27 26 42-38 37-34 There are certain other issues in our recommended list that have shown poor action. We would take the small losses on these issues and switch into either the airline issues or wait for a correctionary move when I will list some new recommended issues. Would switch out of the following – Last ,S-al-e Approximate Originally Recommended Level Avco Corp Pressed Steel Car Reyno1.ds Metals St. Regis Paper United Mer.& Mfgrs. 5 3/8 7 3/8 19 3/4 7 1/2 12 7 6 1/2 21 7 3/4 12 1/2 The balance of the list follows – Better Grade Issues Speculative Issues Last Price Last Price Allis Chalmers American Cyanamid Amer. Home Products American News 31 1/2 47 5/8 30 34 7/8 American Airlines Budd Company Carrier Corp. Combustion Eng. Continental Baking 9 3;8 11 5,/8 16 1/8 26 1/4 17 C.I.T.Financial Comm.Credit 58 5/8 56 1/4 i4Distillers Seagram Eastern Air Lines 3/8 Crown Zellerbach 29 5/8 Lowenstein 23 7/8 Endicott Johnson 34 I/,2 Penn-Dixie Cement 22 1/2 ,. .. Federated Dept.Stores Genl.Amer.Trans. 33 1;8 47 Radio Corp Schenley 12 3/4 31 1/4 Hewitt Robins' KInretesgrteype McKesson & Robbins 15 1/2 03 311;24 lj. /. 40 1/2 .Shamrock Oil & Gas Studebaker Sunshine Mining 27 1/4 24 1/2 10 1/8 Otis EJel'ator 38 hTuahpviosenmaIennmfoiofnrmt1al\dtfiJofJnpittbHbhe..\oli&.ecJvdOe.fdt,.QeJr1ell.leiaoabfgl.tenlJsebtuJrteubnqioitllneYocmfeQisnseatrriiolyonrecdsoomhliecprilteeaitntei.,onTishoenfofotofrfgeeugrasorintaogntbemeudyateoarrsiala01c1hcausar eIRntMtfJMtr.UfrIinrlaNlfQD-'.e'FiH.wtb,..ll.jtt'.\i1\;l ..AlAfnS'fEMiL'IWr! a1l'f1Jr5'j,lofintici'\Ht6OolhfIIfSml'aUnJn'(,h&lip!eNGndoeIontdtwisIinnbqaumlireaydy. ., '—

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 09, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 09, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - December 09, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET, NEW YORK 5, N. Y. Digby 4-4141 The market contilmes its churning action In the 190-195 range. While indiVidual issues 'lave moved ahead, the ind\strial average has made little progress for over a nonth. The November 2pd high was 193.63 and the December 5th high was 195.54. That the market Should meet resistance in the 190-195 area is not unexpected. It must be remembered that there was terrific turnover of stock at this level at the May-July 1;,,48 riglls. vihether the market will overcome this heavy resistance and break into new high territory in the 1mmediate future is not certain. Technical work indicates that eventually the overhead reSistance will be penetrated but that may require more time and a moderate te!hnical c(',rr3ction first. If the upslde penetration should occur shortly, it must be remembered that here is also very hetwy supply from 200 to 210, at which level the market topped out in 1946. ' While this reSistance I more than three Jears old, it will still have some effect. While the rise in the geneal avel'a.ges rna be somewhat labored fr'om here on, tht.l.t dCrGS not &pp ly to indi',ldual issues. The technical patterns indicate extreme selectlv;,.'y. If stock A advances three points while stocks, B,C,D and E f',dvance only half a point, the ' average advance would be only one point. Regardless of this small aver- j, age advance, the price enhancement in stck A we.s very satisfactory. expect this type of acti.;n t continue for some til'!e to come. I i I am listing below two columns of better grade stocks. The first , \ column includes issues with above avera'!,;G teChlltcal patterns. '.i'his group ! should move higher over the next !lear. The 8eco.d column inc ludes issues with below average patterns. While these issues have most Jikely reached t''leir lows, any advance ''lVer the in cer,neiiate terro should be limited. Suggest tax switching frsm these issues into the first column Above Average Approx.Price Allied Stores Alpha Port Cement Amer.Ho'1le Prod. 35 35 31 American Stores 30 ,.l j Armstrong Cork Atlantic Refining 48 40 Beechnut Packing 32 Best Foods 32 California Packing 36 Caterpillar Tractor 34 Champion Paper 29 Cincinnati Gas 31 C. I. T. Financ ial Columbian Carbon Combustion Eng.Super. 59 31 26 Commercial Credit Consol.Natural Gas 59 40 Continental Baking 17 Continental Oil 61 Cutler Hammer 23 Deere Diana Stores 39 8 Doehler Jarvis 36 El Paso Natural Gas 27 Elliott Company 27 Endicott Johnson 34 ExcellO 54 Federated Dept.Stores First National Stores g Food Fair 13 General Amer. Trans. General Foods General Port.Cement 45 43'47 General Shoe 32 Hael Atlas Glass 2; Uncertain Approx .Price Acme Steel 20 Allegheny Ludlum 2 fUller .Crystal 'lug',r 19 Affier.Steel Fdries 24 I\nac 'D1l 28 Armco, Steel 28 Baldwin 10 Barker oros. 18 Bige lo; Sanford 25 Briggs Mfg 30 Brunswick-Balke 18 Can;lpbell Wyant 18 Carpenter Steel 31 Central Aguirre 15 Cerro de Pasco 18 Chesapeake & Ohio 28 Clark Equipment 25 Clev.Graphlte Bronze 27 Cluett ('c'abody 24 Ccnmercial Solvents 19 Ccntalner Corp 40 Crar,,, Co , 28 Dav j SOl' Chemical 22 DJ.a1!lOnd Matich General Refrac. 35 24 Glen Alden 17 Grl''lt,. W. T. 27 GI'oat ,orth .Paper Great ltTest . Sugar 39 18 Harbison \Talker 20 Heinz, H.J. 35 Helme (George) 30 Hercules II10tors 15 He'den Chemical 16 Interchenical Corp 18 DeCember 9, 1949 ELII1UED W.'TABELL WAT.STON,rrOFFMAN & GQQDWTN This memorandum Is not hllve 'In 1nterest In lome to or be all construed liS ,!II'J of the securities offer or solicitation of mentioned herein. The offen to buv or sell any secuTlties From foregoing materitil has been prepared by tuims easto time WalsttI, Hof!man & matter of .nformatlon only GooItd,wIinbam!eady upon Information believed reliable but not necessarily complete, Is not r;juarllnteed as lIccurate or final, and I' not Intended to foreclole Independent mqulry. ,U , …………. .. -.- At

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 16, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 16, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - December 16, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET, NEW YORK 5, N. Y Digby 44141 The industrial average has now penetrated the 190-195 resistance area in which it has held for more than a month. This week's high was 199.13 and the high on the r'ails was 52.05. The high on the industrial average is a new high Since 1946. The. rail average, however, is still below the high of 54.93 reached in January of this year. What is the outlook from here on The answer to this question I ,; believe can be found in the action of individual issues rather than in the averages. The industrial average, for example, is wedged in between the overhead resistance of che 1946 distributional top at 200-210 and a ,… support area below the market in the broad 195-185 area. On the other hand, individual issues shol, varying patterns. While some issues seem to have temporarily reached their upside objectives, others have just started their upswing. Still other2 appear to need more time in backing and filling to form a base area. As we have mentioned since the start of this rise in June, the higher grade stocks and special situations seem to offer the best appreciation possibilities. The secondary speculative issues in most cases appear to need more work in building up accumulation areas. It is obvious that after an advance of 39 points in less than six months, a corrective technical act-inn appears overdue. It could very well start from around this level. In my opinion any such correction would be mild. Very few individual issues have built up worthwhile distributional tops. From a trading vieWpoint I have B'Jggested taking profits in indi- vidual issues. I have not disturbed long term holdings as in my opinion the market in 1950 will at least test the 1946 top. I am continuing my compila.ion of last week. Listed below are two columns of better grade stocles. The first column includes issues with above average technical patcerns. This group should move higher over the next year. The second coln includes issues with below average patterns. While these issues have most likely reached their lows, any ad- 'lance over the intermediate term shculd be limited. Suggest tax switching from these issues into the first column Above Average Appr,,x, P.'ice Holland Furnace Howe Sound Inter.Min. & Chern. International Salt International Shoe 2'7 1 13 I 41 1/2 33 3/4 56 5 Intertype Jewel Tea Kern County Land Kresge 33 56 5/8 47 42 Kroger Lehman Corp. Lerner Stores Libbey-Owens-Ford 60 '3/8 56 3/8 23 ,)/8 61 5/8 McCrory Stores McGraw Hill Publ. McKesson & Robbins kLellan Stores MelVille Shoe Mercantile Stores Mid-Continent Petroleum National Biscuit National Dairy Naional Distillers 36 5/8 33 40 23 5/8 25 7/8 14 5/8 4; 3' 1/2 38 3/8 22 1/4 National Tea Newberry, J.J. 38 '18 5/8 December 16, 1949 Uncertain Approx.Price Jones & Laughlin 27 3/4 Joy Manufacturing 30 5/8 Link Belt 65 1/4 Liquid CarboniC 17 1/4 Louisville & Nash. 33 1/2 Lukens Steel 19 1/8 Mack Truck 12 3/8 Marshall Field McCall Corp. 23 5/8 22 1/2 Mead Corp. 15 1/8 Mesca Machine 38 1/2 Minn.Honeywell Mohawk Carpet Motor Wheel 60 3/8 32 7/8 22 7/8 Mueller Brass Myers (F.E.) 15 44 Nash Kelvinator 15 3/4 National Malleable National Steel Nopco Chemical 19 91 3/4 29 1/2 Not'folk & Western 49 1/2 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN , This have manemiontrellrnedtumin is not lome to or be all construed as an of the securities offer or solkltetion of mentioned herein The offers to foregoing buy or sell !Iny securities. From mate filii has been prepared by time to os as a 1ime Walston, Hoffman & Goodwin may matter of lnformlltlon only. It Is based upon information belillvBd relillble but not necBsUlflly compleie, is not quaranteed al atc.urate or final, and is not Intended to foreclole independent Inquiry. .'-. '——A- — J

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 23, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 23, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - December 23, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER lS WALL SlREEr, NEW YORK S, N. Y DIgby 4-4141 FORECAST FOR 1950 This is the time of the year for everybody even remotely connect- ed with stock market analysis to issue a prediction for the year to come. This becomes quite a burden on the poor investing public who could not possibly rrenaddealalyl inthgesthee forecasts issuance even if they wanted to. of my forecast until later in the month, I have gained the dubious advantage of perusing a great many forecasts that have already been issued. It is somewhat disconcerting to note that they are very predominantely bullish with only a very few predicting a dowmlard market. This is in direct contrast to last year when the market sentiment was predominately bearish with many predictions of 140 to 120 in the Dow- Jones industrials. Only a few hardy souls predicted a higher market. According to the accepted formula, the first part of a forecast must consist of a review of last year's pre'diction and an explanation of how accurately these predictions worked out. Sometimes this requires quite a facile pen. My forecast for the general pattern for 1949 was thet the aver- ages would reach their low point for the year in the first three months and that the low would be not much, if any, below the November 1948 low of 171, and certainly above 160. I stated that the market during the latter part of 1949 would approach or pass the 1946 highs of 213. The ultimate objective for the upward move was 240-250 in the Dow-Jones in- dustrial averages. This objective might be reached in 1950. The forecast was off a bit in timing as the low of the year was reached in the second quarter at 160.35. I Also it was a bit too optimistic as the high, at the present writing, has been 199.15. ' / . ML5;edic t iO,l\j.r 1950 is that llie illtsJ;.r.l;iayer,.a.gewill,at.tain .a high 0 f 3eaB.L225 wltha–';QQ.cLp..l.Q..1ab il ityj;Jtat-the.J;'lLO..;25LJ,e)l.el 1tl1Lll.e….le.a..9J1EW.D I also be lieve ther'.aiJ.sW'DJ.–teflJthe3;;'6lili!yel… Just when these figures wirl be reached is problematical. Most fore- casters expect the highs to be reached in mid-year. I doubt if the low of theebe.low185.., . In my opinion, tlemark..tJsLadeLil at leasJ;inJJl,e earlier l!!g; ) will continue to be the higheg,longivdend Py1ng issthat are Yielding 5-ro-8. The present wide spread between high grade bond . yields and higher grade stock yields will be sharply narrowed. la .. The market in 1950 will be featured by investment situations and such special situations as American Seating, Cities Service and Standard Gas, preferred, which we recommended in 1949. lhoepu situations maY,requiI'emoretimetodeve.lop,. —nowever, there-are some speculative groups that have already built up strong base patterns and could show substantial price appre,,!i eiation during the year. My first choice is the airlines and my second choice is the moving picture group. Both of these groups are sUbstan- tially below the 1946 highs and appear thoroughly sold. They could be the speculative leaders of 1950. December 23, 1949 A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN \. hae amorafldum rn Interost in is lo not me to Of be ,II conltrued !15 an of the securities offer or lollcltation mentioned herein. of The offers to buy or sell MY securitiOS. From foregoing material h!ls been prepo!Ired by tuims e!ISto time matt DWf aoltstoinnf,orHmoaftflmonanon&ly.GoIotdw1,inbameayd upon information believed reliable br.rt not neeeuarily complete, Is not gUi!ranfeed as accurate or final, and IS not Intended to foretlose Independent InquirY I ,/

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 30, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 30, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - December 30, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER .., th iBdothtthelindustrials and rails reached new high !!YI e n us ria average at an intra-day high of 200.91 and th i… 53.16. A glance at the point and figure charts of the various averages may ! ! L' be of interest. The November 1948-June 1949 base on the Dow-Jones industrial average indicates an intermediate term advance to 199-203. The New (' York Times 50-Stock average indicates an advance to 138-141. This average t . '. is at approximately 135 at the moment. The New York age indicates an advance to 128-131. This average is Herald-Tribune averapproximately at 126 t' !,. at the moment. The Dow-Jones rail average indicates a rally to 53-55. The longer term objectives outlined by the thirty-two month base from ;',.. October 1946 to June 1949 are considerably higher. The three-point chart i of the Dow-Jones industrials indicates a minimum of 225-230 lith the possi- bility of a later 240-250. It would appear that while the advance may have somewhat further to ,…. go, an intermediate correction would be the normal sequence over the next t month or so. Such a correction should meet support in the 195-185 range in the Dow-Jones industrials. Following such a correctionary decline, ; '. and after a period of consolidation, the next objective appears to be l 225-230. i ' I believe the leaders of the advance in 1950 will continue to be the highgrade,dividend paying stocks. Despite the already sharp advance from ''.' the June lows, there are a great many investment and se6i-investment issues that are still selling at prices to yield over . A list of 1 issues with attractive technical patterns and a yield of 6 or more is . t in the process o,f preparation. If you desire such a list, please request \''! it from your customer I s representative. Undoubtedly there will also be wide appreciation in special issues. , . We mentioned several of these situations in 1949 such as American Seating, C/i !'., Cities Service, Standard Gas pfd. and White Sewing Machine. As these situations come to light they will be mentioned in this letter. Schenley , . Industries in my opinion is a special situation that could show wide t' price appreciation during the year. It is already on our recommended '''.i list. In the speculative field my first chOice continues to be the air- . .. , i lines. These issues seem thoroughly sold out and appear extremely 1 attractive for sizeable long term price appreciation.1The airline group i ';,; is one of the few that lost practically all of the 1942-1946 bull market gain by late 1948 when prices were the lowest since 1942. The following table shows the drastic decline suffered by these issues i, . Last Sale High 1242- 1246 iLow Convertible Into 1248- 1242 Shs . of Common ! Alaska Airlines 4 16 1/2 2 5/8 L' Amer.Airlines,3t pf 69 3/8 Amer. Airlines 9 3/4 98 19 7/8 47 6 ;L/8 4.76 t' Braniff Airways 8 37 1/2 6 1/4 Capital Airlines Eastern Airlines 8 1/8 14 5/8 49 3/4 33 1/2 3 7/8 12 1/2 National Airlines 7 1/2 41 3/4 4 1/2 No.West Air,pfd 19 1/4 27 1/4 14 1/8 1 1/2 No.West Airlines 11 3/8 63 1/2 7 Pan Amer. Air United Air 4t pf 9 1/8 81 29 120 7/8 8 57 1/2 4 United Airlines 13 7/8 62 1/2 9 5/8 Western Airlines 8 40 1/2 5 1 . 1948 High My second choice is the moving picture group. Most of these issues will be split into two units of motion picture production and theatre .) owning. Their price action may be similar to the action of some of the utility holding companies after a split up into the operating units. My favorite issue in this group is 'Twentieth Cer,tury-Fox. Other issues with ;, ''''; favorable While the patterns include Columbia Pictures, Technicolor and Warner Bros. charts on new Paramount Corp .and new United Paramount Theatre, Inc .do not show sUfficie'nt technical data on which to base an opinion, i, t.,gJ;;iil,l;j ,.q,. Irl. 'b X thj,I't ', .fil A 6\ttli r;;y,f3. ;!;;6I!1I..to rruilJiloli! to ; . s A41t4'kt 1n-ts9'9'le \,b.of ….'AlJrItiUiomentlt.cbw The fore901ng materiel has tim. 0 co, 0 m , mo, een pr.epared by us liS e matter of information only. It Is bl!!ed 1 ! 'npof'rfn'fft,n Wlteveij'''rt!'ffiIbl…. .,bYnot'vt'\larttrt,.,t ft; not guaranteed as accurate or f0\-lnA.13Etclo,e Independent lnqulIY / / l;.Dlbr.3;.i.9Mf…. , A' ….. .. ,…… . W4J1.9NjJ!q &(()9…,;,,' …t…. .-

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