Viewing Month: June 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 01, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 01, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - June 01, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LEnER 35 WALL STREET. NEW YORK 5. N. Y. Digby 4-4141 With both averages breaking into new low territory for the year, the downtrend which has been in effect Since June, 1948 has again been re-confirmed. Wednesday's lows were 166.53 in the industrials and 44.12 in the rails. However, both averages remain in the thirty-three month range of 195-160 in the industrials and 68-41 in the rails. The' industrial low was reached at 160.49 in October, 194q and the rail low was reached in May, 1947 at 40.43. The 170-160 area has been entered on at least a dozen occasions during the past thirty-three month period and there has been a tremendous turnover of stock in the range. It should furnish an area of strong support. Actually the slow downdrift in the average since June has concealed the true pattern of the market. While the averages and certain groups have been working lower,other groups have been under accumulation and others have been in an uptrend. This diverse action is expected to continue. The seasonal pattern favors a rise from the May-June lows. In the past, such a rise has usually been a minimum of 10. This is in line with the thought of some economists that there will be a temporary reversal in the F.R.B. bUSiness index within a short time. This rise will be led by the consumers' no-durable goods group. While the market has not yet given a definite oversold Signal, the technical indications are near such a point. A selling climax down to the 165 area may be necessary before a turn. However, the low volume on this decline, the lowest of the various declines since September, may Signal an immediate drying up of the selling . EDMUND W, TABELL June 1, 1949 WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 03, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 03, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - June 03, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET. NEW YORK 5. N. Y. Digby 4-1141 On volume of only 700,000 shares, the market continued its slow downdrift'on Friday and both averages closed at new lows for the move at 167.24 and 43.76. The intra-day lows were 166.77 and 43.61, compared with the previous intra- day lows of 166.53 and 44.12 on Wednesday. As yet, the market has not given an oversold signal although, on several technical indicators, it is very close to such a pOSition. The general opinion seems to be that the decline will end only after a selling climax on heavy volume. However, a careful examination of the pattern casts considerable doubt on this conjecture. All supply and demand gauges indicate that the decline since November has been due to a buying lethargy rather than selling pressure. This is evidenced by the decreasing volume on each successive low since the post-election break November 3rd November 9th November 30th February 25th June 3rd 3,236,000 2,261,0000 1,200,000 830,000 7 00 ,00\ Wednesday's volume, the day of the previous low, was 1,140,000 shares which was above the February volume but less than November. As long as this tendency continues, it would be more logical to expect the low to be made in a slow, dragging fashion,similar to the pattern of FebruaryMarch, 1948. Of course, selling pressure could increase and destroy this pattern but as yet there has been no indication that such will be the case. It is interesting to note that while all the DowJones averages have reached new low territory, as has the New York Times Combined average and rail average, the New York Times industrial average has not yet confirmed the downtrend in the rail average. The November low was 179.05 and Wednesday's low was 181.54. Friday's low is not avail- able at this writing and may be somewhat lower than Wednesday's low. However, I presume that it is still above the November low. In ,the past the New York Times average has failed to confirm several false signals. ,It is barely possible that this might occur again. The main fact to bear in mind at the moment is that the 170-160 area has proven to be a buying range' for the last thirty-three months. At this stage, would concentrate on the action of individual stocks with strong technical patterns rather than on the minor fluctuations of the averages. June 3, 1949 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN Thl hIIOI 'InmfoIonrrmta,,na..tdsiu1omnInbI1..n0nm.o.,'t.dotor ,a.b.lnl, eocbf.ol.nthtbt,rlflsttedcnu.or.t.itienenescoemsfsfeeanrrtiIlooyrnecsdoomlhIc.p.itt.a..tltneio., nITIohf,nooftOffReQn;uoaltnroQanbteumeydatotrarllasleaU-chcauelnraybteeenocrurpifrtiIn.eal.,…andnodbmyIsumsnoaet. to tim. Walnen, Hoffman Goodwin may II matter of Information only. It II baled intended to foreclose Independent Inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 06, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 06, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - June 06, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET, NEW YORK 5, N. Y. Digby 4-4141 On my technical work, the market gave a short term buy signal at Monday's closing level of 165.15. This is based on a gauge that has proven quite accurate in the past. It has signalled almost every important turning pOint. It also has given premature signals but eventually the turn was signalled again at a lev,el not too far away from the original signal. Any rally that would ensue from present levels would be expected to meet temporary resistance at around 170. / While the averages have drifted downward, individual groups have been in an uptrend. Expect these groups to continue their favorable action. The groups include airlines, baking, department store and mail order, drugs, glass, investment companies, motion pictures, natural gas, retail food, tobaccos, utilities and variety chains. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON,HOFFMAN & GOODWIN, June 6, 1949 This memorandum Is not to be construed as an offer or &Glldtatlon of offOR to buy or sell any securTtIes. From time to tim. WalrtoIoHoffman a Goodjln ma., ha. lin Interest In lome or all of the securities mentioned herein. The for890ln.; materiel hon been prepared by UI as II matter of In rmotlon onl.,. It I bas.d upon Information b.llevod ,.Uable but not necelSarll., complete, Is not Qu.sranteed as accur&te or final, lind Is not Intended to foreclose Indllpendflnf Inquiry, —

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 10, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 10, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - June 10, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LEnER 35 WAll STREET, NEW YORK 5, N. Y. Digby 4-4141 At Friday's intra-day lows of 164.14 and 42.58, the market worked down to the previous lows of Monday at 164.27 and 42.13. The close was a fraction above the worst of the day at 164.61 and 42.70. Volume on Friday was 800,000 shares as compared with 1,380,000 shares on Monday. Almost everyone of the various gauges of selling pressure indicate that the market is at the present time in an oversold position, or very close to it. Obviously, under the stress of the current pessimism, the market might work somewhat lower, but it would appear that the next important move will be toward higher levels. From a timing viewpoint, would expect a strong upward move to start not later than late June or early July. A group that offers substantial profit possibilities is the airline group. In the last few months, the group has shown much better action than the general market. Fairly substantial potential base patterns have been built up and earnings have been showing a definitely improving trend in most instances. The airline stocks made their highs in late 1945 and early 1946, almost six months before the general market topped out. As noted in the table below, the declines have been extremely drastic with some issues,at their lows, selling at 1/6 to 1/10 of the levels reached in 1945-1946. Last High Sale 1945-1946 Amer.Airlines 3 pf. 60 98 Amer. Airlines 8 1/2 19 7/8 Braniff Airways 6 3/8 37 1/2 Capital Airlines 6 1/8 49 3/4 Eastern Airlines 13 1/2 33 1/2 No. Wst Air. pf 14 1/8 27 1/4 No. West Airlines 7 5/8 63 1/2 Pan Amer. Airways 8 1/2 29 Trans. & West. 11 3/8 79 United Air 4t pf 66 1/4 120 7/8 United Airlines 10 5/8 62 1/2 Western Airlines 6 3/8 40 1/2 1948 High Low 1948-1949 47 6 1/8 6 1/4 3 7/8 13 1/2 14 1/8 7 8 9 5/8 57 1/2 9 5/8 5 Convertible Into Shs. of Common 4.76 1 1/2 4 All the issues offer interesting profit possibilities. At the moment, American Airlines and Pan-American in the better grade group, and Capital, TWA and Western in the more speculative group ,show the best current action. June 10, 1949 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN \tf' This memorandum II not to b. conrlraed 111 an off., Of lolicltatlon of offen to buy or ..II any securities. From tim. to time Walnon Hoffman & Goodwin ma, hau an Int.red Tn 10m. or .11 of the s.curltles mentioned her.ln. Th fore;olnc;l mat.,lal hu b..n pr'p.!Ir.d by UI as a matter of Inlormatlon only. It II ba..d upon Irdormatlon btn…d rell.bl. but not necelSarll, compl.t., I. not Qllllr.antdd al accurat. or final. and II not intended to for.close Independ.nt Inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 15, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 15, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - June 15, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER Although both averages penetrated the thirty-four month trading range on Monday on the basis of closing prices, the range still remains intact as far as the intra-day lows are concerned. The Dow-Jones industrial average reached an intra-day low of 160.49 in October, 1946. The intra-day low reached in the first hour Tuesday, June 14th, 'was 160.62. The rail average made its low in May, 1947 at 40.43. Tuesdays low was 40.88. The Dow-Jones 65-Stock index also reached its low in May 1947 at 56.56. Tuesdays low was 57.43. Wednesday's rally to 164.58 and 42.43 and 58.83 brought all the averages away from the thirty-four month lows. Whether these lows hold or not is problematical. Wednesday's action gave the impression that there is a good chance that they will. But whether they hold or not is, in my opinion, not terrifically important except from a short term trading point of view. The market is oversold on all the longer term trading pressure gauges. On one gauge the index is at an oversold point that has been lower on only three occasions Since 1940. At each of these times, the market soon started on a sharp upward move. Even if the lowest level were reached it should not carry the market much below 160. A downside penetration of the thirty-four month trading range at this time might be very similar to the upside penetration of the 1946-1948 range of 160-187 in May,1948. The average at that time carried on to only 194 and then built up a distribution area that started an intermediate downtrend that today is still in effect (over a year later). The trading range of the last thirty-four months is irregular. The top has been penetrated on two occasion. The July 1947 top at 187 was above the February 1947 top at 184 and the May 1948 top at 194 was above the July 1947 top at 187. On both occasions, the advance lost momentum and the market returned to its trading range. I continue to believe that the trading range of the last thirty-four months is an accumulation area. The broad pattern would not necessarily be destroyed by a temporary penetration into the 160-150 area. In fact, the potential base area has been greatly widened by the present dip. Furthermore, the downside objectives on the point and figure charts have almost all been approximately reached. Allowing for a normal margin of error, this would indicate a nearby reversal of important proportions. It must be remembered that if all the stocks in the Dow-Jones industrial average had reached their low at the same time during the last thirty four months, the average would have reached a low of about 150 instead of 160. Wednesday's rally was impressive and could indicate the start of a reversal. Normal action would point to resistance at 165-166 followed by a consolidation or a retesting of the recent lows. June 15, 1949 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN This memorandum is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation of offers to buy or sell any securities. From time to time Walston, Hoffman & Goodwin may have an interest in some or all of the securities mentioned herein. The foregoing material has been prepared by us as a matter of information only if it based upon information believed reliable but not necessarily complete, is not guaranteed as accurate or final, and is not intended to foreclose independent inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 17, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 17, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - June 17, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER )5 WALL STREET, NEW YORK 5. N. Y. Dlvby 4-4141 I am reprinting below my letter of April 27, 1949. The airline issues mentioned in my letter of June 10th also fit into this category except for the fact that, at present prices, they are selling at more than ten times 1940 earnings. – For the speculator who likes to purchase well deflated issues I am listing below a group of stocks that are now selling at a price of approximately one-third of their 1945-1946 highs. All of these issues paid dividends in 1948 but that is no reason to assume that such payments will be made in 1949. To eliminate issues that were purely war beneficiaries, I have added an additional requirement – namely, that at present price no issue is selling at more than ten times 1940 earnings. From a technical viewpoint, while most of these issues appear to have reached their approximate lows, very few have built up sufficient base patterns to indicate any important near term move. Undoubtedly, considerable patience will be required. However, even if these issues regained only half of their threeyear declines, the percentage appreCiation would be sizeable. Approx. Price 19451946 High 1940 Earn. 1948 Earn. 1948 Div. Air Reduction 21 1/2 Allegheny Ludlum 18 Amer.Machine & Fdry 12 American Stove 8 Artloom 9 Baldwin Locomotive 9 Bath Iron Works 10 1/2 Blumenthal (Sidney) 5 1/2 Bohn Aluminum 24 Bond Stores 17 Bullard Company 12 1/2 Climax Molybdenum 12 1/2 Collins & Aikman 14 1/2 Columbia Broad. A 17 1/2 Consolo Coppermines 2 1/2 Cudahy Packing 7 Evans Products 6 1/2 General Precision Equip. 13 Hollander & Son 9 Kalamazoo Stove Lehn & Fink 9 9 1/2 Liquid Carbonic 13 1/2 Mack Truck 10 Manhattan Shirt 16 National Can 5 Niles-Bement-Pond 8 Pacific Tin 3 Pennsylvania R.R. 14 1/2 Remington Rand 8 1/2 Servel, Inc. 6 1/2 Standard Brands 18 Sun Chemical 7 Sunshine Mining 8 1/2 Symington Gould 4 U.SoInd. Chemical 19 Wayne Pump 12 White Motor 13 Yale & Towne 19 1/2 59 3/4 61 1/8 45 1/4 38 7/8 30 38 7/8 39 3/4 26 3/8 78 48 1/4 46 7/8 44 1/2 63 1/2 47 10 3/4 20 33 3/4 40 1/2 40 36 33 43 1/4 38 3/8 46 1/2 21 3/4 26 1/4 11 1/8 47 1/2 23 7/8 24 7/8 55 24 1/4 24 16 7/8 62 47 1/2 47 1/8 61 1/2 2.38 2.36 2.78 5.05 1.35 1.66 2.17 1.06 1.04 2.65 1.75 1.26 4.90 1.31 1.79 1.31 4.09 2.76 1.92 3.05 6.15 1.58 2.40 1.04 5.15 (a) .46 2.92 2.94 .51 .13 1.00 .36 .91 (d) .38 1.45 1.56 2.10 1.01 1.96 2.10 (b) 1.54 .30 2.21 3.01 1.51 1.56 2.20 2.32 .72 .19 2.29 1.55 .90 .68 3.51 2.61 .77 2.00 1.67 3.00 2.72 2.05 .86 .70 1.82 .80 1.17 .28 2.14 (a-d)3.92 3.18 (d)1.13 2084 4.98 2.90 4.17 1.00 2.00 080 1.20 1.00 1.00 1.00 .60 1.00 2.00 .50 1.20 1.00 2.00 .30 .60 .50 1.00 1.00 .95 .25 1.00 1.50 1. 75 .25 .60 .20 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 .50 .60 .50 2050 1.50 1.45 1.00 Adjusted. (d) Deficit (a) Nine months. (b) Adjusted for change in fiscal year. June 17, 1949 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFlfillN & GOODWIN This memorandum I, not to b. conlJtrued a. an offer or .ollcltatlon of offen to buy or 11 any curltl… From tIm. to tim. Walston, HCffman I Goodwin may have an lnt.rt In Orne Clf all of th. securltle. mentioned he,.In. Th. for.qolnQ mat.rial hal bun prepared by UI al III mathr 01 Information only, It Is. boll.ad cpon Informaflon bell.ved ,.lIable but not neeenllrily complete, II not QUllrat..d a. aec.urate or flnlll, and Is not Intended to 'ar.close Independent Inquiry,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 24, 1949

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 24, 1949

Tabell's Market Letter - June 24, 1949
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 35 WALL STREET. NEW YORK 5. N. Y. Digby 4-4141 The market gives increasing evidence that the lows of 160.62 and 40.88, reached on June 14th, may be the lows of the intermediate decline that is over a year old. Since the first of the month the market has shown definite signs of an oversold condition. The various gauges of short term, intermediate and longer term action all have reached levels that, in the past, has always resulted in a reversal of trend. Even while the market was declining into new low territory during the first half of June, the market was giving evidence of this oversold action. For example, during the week ending June 3rd when the average reached a low of 166.53, there vlere 1013 stocks that Closed the week lower and 167 that closed the week higher. During the week ending June lOth, when the averages reached a new low of 164.14, there were 836 declines and 322 advances. During the week ending June 17th, when the averages reached the low of 160.62, there ',ere only 684 declines as against 463 advances. This tendency of the number of declining stocks to turn downward and the number of advancing stocks to increase has continued during the week just ended. Ever since September 1946 I have consistently repeated that the 160-170 area was a long term buying range for selected stocks. After entering this range on at least a dozen occasions in the past thirty-four months, this range still holds. For the near term, some temporary resistance is to be expected as the average approaches the upside resistance at 170. Friday's high was 167.49. Most favorable action would be a quiet sell-off from whatever highs are reached on this rallying phase followed by ability to hold above the lows of 160.62 and 40.88. If all of this occurred, the market would be in a position to rally when the downward longer term pressure eases around July 1st. June 24, 1949 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN Thll memorandum I, not to bti conttrued III an offt,r or IOlIcltatlon of offen to buy or .,11 an, ncurlt'. From time to tim. Walston, Hoffman I Goodwin may he…. an Inta!'lld In 10m. or all of th .ecurltles mentioned h.retn. Ttl. fONQoln; mllt'rlel hal b.,n prepared by UI ,n a math' of tnformellon only. It 11 based llpon InformatIon believed ,.lIebl. but not neealla,lIy compl…. I, not Quarant..d al accurat. or ftnal, and Is not Intended to foredo,. Independent Inquiry. -i I )

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