Tabell’s Market Letter – June 10, 1949

TABELL'S MARKET LEnER 35 WAll STREET, NEW YORK 5, N. Y. Digby 4-4141 At Friday's intra-day lows of 164.14 and 42.58, the market worked down to the previous lows of Monday at 164.27 and 42.13. The close was a fraction above the worst of the day at 164.61 and 42.70. Volume on Friday was 800,000 shares as compared with 1,380,000 shares on Monday. Almost everyone of the various gauges of selling pressure indicate that the market is at the present time in an oversold position, or very close to it. Obviously, under the stress of the current pessimism, the market might work somewhat lower, but it would appear that the next important move will be toward higher levels. From a timing viewpoint, would expect a strong upward move to start not later than late June or early July. A group that offers substantial profit possibilities is the airline group. In the last few months, the group has shown much better action than the general market. Fairly substantial potential base patterns have been built up and earnings have been showing a definitely improving trend in most instances. The airline stocks made their highs in late 1945 and early 1946, almost six months before the general market topped out. As noted in the table below, the declines have been extremely drastic with some issues,at their lows, selling at 1/6 to 1/10 of the levels reached in 1945-1946. Last High Sale 1945-1946 Amer.Airlines 3 pf. 60 98 Amer. Airlines 8 1/2 19 7/8 Braniff Airways 6 3/8 37 1/2 Capital Airlines 6 1/8 49 3/4 Eastern Airlines 13 1/2 33 1/2 No. Wst Air. pf 14 1/8 27 1/4 No. West Airlines 7 5/8 63 1/2 Pan Amer. Airways 8 1/2 29 Trans. & West. 11 3/8 79 United Air 4t pf 66 1/4 120 7/8 United Airlines 10 5/8 62 1/2 Western Airlines 6 3/8 40 1/2 1948 High Low 1948-1949 47 6 1/8 6 1/4 3 7/8 13 1/2 14 1/8 7 8 9 5/8 57 1/2 9 5/8 5 Convertible Into Shs. of Common 4.76 1 1/2 4 All the issues offer interesting profit possibilities. At the moment, American Airlines and Pan-American in the better grade group, and Capital, TWA and Western in the more speculative group ,show the best current action. June 10, 1949 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN \tf' This memorandum II not to b. conrlraed 111 an off., Of lolicltatlon of offen to buy or ..II any securities. From tim. to time Walnon Hoffman & Goodwin ma, hau an Int.red Tn 10m. or .11 of the s.curltles mentioned her.ln. Th fore;olnc;l mat.,lal hu b..n pr'p.!Ir.d by UI as a matter of Inlormatlon only. It II ba..d upon Irdormatlon btn…d rell.bl. but not necelSarll, compl.t., I. not Qllllr.antdd al accurat. or final. and II not intended to for.close Independ.nt Inquiry.