TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 987-2300 March 17, 1989 – There—-musfalays be—so -Ule'ffnancIihPress-w6uldhave-o..us'b-e1iev–.an -explanation-of-why— ..- the stock market did what it did on any given day. St. Patrick's Day, 1989, for example, will be headlined as the day the market fell out of bed in response to a 1 rise in producer prices. Any mention by us technical folk of such things as a high being tested or a short-term overbought condition will be shouted down by the conventional wisdom. In any CRse, there has emerged. over the past few weeks. a new, or not-so-new. explanation for stock-market behavior which can take its place along with interest rates, economic statistics, and the trade deficit. That explanation is program trading. A couple of weeks ago, The Wall Street Journal headed a story, They're back! Program Traders Regaining Stock Market Clout. The article did note that such activity was a shadow of what it had been in pre-crash days, but went to quote un-named traders as saying that the February 24 fall reminded them of pre-crash days. It should not have done so. Memories are short, and, indeed, we, ourselves. were jolted when, reviewing what we had written in early 1987. we read our own description of the market of January 23 in that year. The Dow, we said. moved over a IOO-point range within an hour, and volume reached a record 302 million shares. Most readers will have seen the chart. produced by an on-line computer service. which shows the index up 64 points just before 2 o'clock, down 50 points a hour later, up 10 points and then, finally. down 44 points. 11 Those were the days when men were men and program trading was program trading. As a background for our discussion of that market, we referred to a study of market volatility and subsequent price behavior, and we updated that study on April 10, 1987. The study examined all market days between 1974 and late 1986 on which the spread between intra-day high -We–a-n.d -i-n-t raal-sdca yoVIeorweanfst hseorDtJ I0A( vwoaisa tm1 Io1riey ht haadn f3oreosf htahdeowcleoas-ea.-h,Oigt hmaadrkbeetens 7.22 on ix months January 23.) later oc.n '-'-''— -I 111 of 120 occasions, i.e., 92.5, of the time. This was despite the fact that, taking all of the 3000-plus days in the 1974-1986 period, a six-month rise had occurred only 63.6 of the time. Needless to say, over the two years since that time, we have been keeping an eye on this particular statistic. There have occurred, not surprisingly, 67 more days where the high-low spread has exceeded 3. Of these, eight were part of a string in April, 1987, six of which pre-dated October 19, 1987 by just over six months, and two of which did not. These two figures were coupled with a string of eleven high-volatility days occurring at various points between May, 1987 and October 16. A total of thirteen signals, therefore, were spectacularly erroneous. However, for any day starting with October 19, it is a fact that the market has been higher after a six-month interval. Forty-five such days produced a 3-or-greater spread. The record for the indicator, therefore, now stands at 165 correct calls and 22 wrong ones. To return to our discussion of volatility, however, the relevant fact is that the last time a 3 spread between the Dow's intra-day high and low occurred was on May 31, 1988. Indeed, since that time, in 201 trading days, there have been only 36 in which the spread has exceeded 2. Only seven of these have taken place in 1989. By contrast. we have, of late, been setting records for lack of volatility. Just a week ago, on March 9, the 23.75-point spread between the Dow high of 2306.61 and the low of 2282.86 constituted only 1.04 of the close. There are only 63 lower figures in a 3722-day history. A spread of under 1 occurred on January 16, one of only 33 such cases in fourteen-plus years, and the 1988 pre-Christmas holiday figure of 0.87 was the fifth lowest instance in the record. 1t is certainly quite proper to worry about a resurgence of the sort of market conditions which preceded the October, 1987 crash, but we are demonstrably a long way from anything resembling that sort of environment at the moment. ANTHONY W. TARELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (3/16/89) 2295.54 292.95 4289.53 AWTebh No statement or eKpreSSlon 01 opInion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlreC1ly or Indlreclfy, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any secunty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we believe the sources 01 our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy Ihereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own investigation and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poSllions or trades In respeC1to any seCUrities mentIOned In thiS or any future Issue, and such POSition may be different from any views now or hereatler expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investmenl advlso!)' and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 987-2300 March 23, 1989 We noted in last week's letter the fact that St. Patrick's Day, 198q . will be headlined — as theoday…. the ma-rket–fell–out-…ofbed-in–responseto-a….f–'rise in–producer -prices .-The'fall. – —'–I actually, had just begun by the time we went to press at noon. At the end of the day, the Dow had been trimmed by 48 points, this decline of 2.08 having been only twice exceeded since April, 1988. The slide continued with a 33-point fall in Monday's trading, and, after a mild recovery which fizzled out late in the day on Tuesday, Wednesday saw yet lower prices. Since just about the entire world is explaining the decline in terms of the economy, let us stick to our knitting and look at it from the perspective of the market technician. We have, at the moment, a number of benchmarks. The first is the 1987-89 bull-market high of 2347.14, attained on February 7. Following attainment of that peak, the Dow dropped a bit over 100 points in the next three weeks, declining 4.44 to a low of 2243.04 on March L The next two weeks were spent retracing the bulk of the ground lost, and, by March 16, the average was back at 2340.71, less than seven points under its high. That rise was then aborted by Friday's action. Interestingly. without any reference whatever to the Producer Price Index, we can look at all this as tediously conventional technical action. A long run-up (November 16, 1987-February 7) is interrupted by a pullback (February 7-March I). A test of the previous high ensues (March 1 to March 16), fails, and the pullback low is then tested (March 16 to date). It is also possible, totally without reference to extraneous events, to put all of this into a larger context. We have noted repeatedly here that the four short-term corrections which punctuated the upswing of 1988 ranged in extent from 6.64 to 8.42. We have also expressed our belief that, despite the strength of the November-February upswing, the market's basic characteristics were probably still those of 1988. If we are correct In this assumption, it would be plausible for the 4 1/2 correction to be extended to something approximately in the 6-8 range. Such a decline would produce a downside target in the vicinity of 2205-2160. There is nothing illogical about such a target. The average's October 21 high (at the top of the upswing preceding this one) was 2183.50. The July 5 peak was 2158.61. Thus any further —–extensionof th-e(je()linetb thehigh' 21 OO's -wouldsiffiPlY proaueearetFeat -toesta1ilisheo support–L'-I levels. If this is to occur, it could do so over the fairly short term. Thirty trading days through yesterday have elapsed since the February 7 high, and the longest of the 1988 declines lasted for 35 daysw We have, moreover, at the moment, the familiar technical situation where a decline, if it is to occur, is best gotten over with quickly without further broadening of the potential top. Recent action can be viewed from yet another purely technical perspective, that of an attack on overhead supply. We have repeatedly expressed our view that the existence of such supply is the most important technical factor in today's stock-market environment, both in terms of the general market level and the action of individual stocks. In 1987, the Dow, as late as the end of May, was at 2215.87, just a bit under today's level. Over just three months, it advanced more than 500 points, and within another three months had completed the formation of a top and undergone the ensuing freefall of the October crash. The most significant technical aspect of all this is the extent of the distributional patterns—Iater to become overhead supply—that were completed within that short six-month timeframe. As the average reached the mid 2300's in early February, many stocks were beginning to approach that supply for the first time. What has been fascinating to us as we have watched individual patterns unfold is the extent to which initial attempts at penetration of the supply have resulted in noticeable pullbacks. This has occurred even when the supply areas seemed insignificant. ,Just four weeks ago we published a chart of IBM in this space, noting that it had broken out of its 1988 base and was making its first attempt on the supply from its 1987 top. The immediate aftermath was a retreat deep into the bottom of the base formation. This sort of thing, in somewhat less dramatic form, has been repeated in a number of cases. Thus, despite last week's renewed outbreak of the market's inflation-cum-interest-rate obsession, technical action so far has been perfectly normal .. A modestextension 9f trye decline would be equally normal and not at all improbable. Beyond that, the market's further action during 1989 will depend on the success of renewed attempts to penetrate the supply overhanging from the frenzied trading of summer, 1987. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) 2263.75 S & P 500 (1200) 290.94 Cumulative Index (3/22/89) 4201.09 AWTebh No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlrectlyor mdlrectly, an offeror the solicllatlon of an offarto buy or sell any secunty referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presenled merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy Ihereol nor althe statements made herein Any action to be laken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own lIlves!lgatlon and mforma\lon Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporatIOn and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may laler take pOSitions or trades In respect to any secunbes mentioned In Ihls or any future Issue, and such posilion may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its tnvestment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or m any other ISSue Further Information on any security mentioned herem IS available on request

—————————————————– – – – – — — —- – – – TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 987-2300 – —- – – —-00– 'C' – –,-.-. —–.,…,-..,-.March31;!989 -, . – We made the assertion in last wee'k's letter that recent market action could be explained in fairly conventional technical terms. We noted that, on February 7, the Dow had closed at 2347.14. This was the highest figure it had attained in the post-crash era—since October 19, 1987 — constituting a 35 advance from that 17-month-old low. From a shorter-term point of view, it was the culmination of a 56-day, 15.1 rise that had been going on, without substantial interruption (the largest correction was less than 2), since November 16, 1988. Subsequently, a decline of slightly over 100 points took the average down 4.44 to a low on March I, and a rally in early March brought it back to within seven points of its peak on March 16. This test of the high was unsuccessful. and Qur comment last week was that a rather ordinary test of the lows was taking place. This test proved interesting, at least from a numerological point of view. The Dow wound up closing last Friday at 2243.04, exactly the same level, to the penny, as the previous Iowan March 1. The index's intra-day low, 2234.46. attained on Monday. was 36/100 of a point below the comparable March figure. Textbooks on technical analysIs write about tests of this nature. That bottom, If It was one, hardly featured melodramatic action. Monday's volume was an anemlC 113 mIllion shares, the lowest level of 1989 so far. Indeed, since January, 1987, lower volume had occurred on only fourteen trading days. Nine of those fourteen. moreover. had been associated with Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. We have, therefore, now spent almost two months. 36 trading days to be precise. in a rather restricted 100-point trading range. The obvious question is whether this range constitutes a distnbuhonal tap or a simple reaccumulation area in preparation for a further advance. We confess that we lean, without terribly firm conviction. toward the former theory and continue to think that the twice-tested March low will be broken. Following this bad news, we hasten to proclaIm the good tidings that such an interpretation, if correct, is hardly likely to produce – -,-disasferThe-ino-st-plausil5led6wnsi(reo15jecfive fortb-ellow appears to 0.,2'170; ana we notedlas-t week that. (1) a correction to that level would be about in line with the normal corrective phases which characterized 1988, and (2) that massive support was present in the high 2100's. We lean toward this short-term-top interpretation largely because of the desultory nature of this recovery. including the volume figures referred to above. During the week, moreover. our breadth index moved to a new low, and has recovered very little since. We think. therefore. that further weakness in the averages remains plausible. The patterns for averages other than the Dow differ from it only in degree. The more broadly based S & P 500 also produced a successful test of its low this week and could move back to a support level comparable to that of the Dow. At present, a downside objective of Just under 280, versus a current level around 294, is possible. The Dow Transports, in many ways, appear to be leading the Industrials. It must first be noted that the longer-term rise for this average, 65 from its December, 1987 low, is almost tWIce as great as that of the DJIA. Indeed, the Transports are, one of the few averages, on this side of the Pacific Ocean at least, to have recovered all of the ground lost durmg the crash. The August, 1987 high was 1091.41, and on February 7, they had reached 1087.97. More recently, a top formatIOn has been completed, and, indeed, the downside objective of that top has already just about been attained at recent lows around 1000. Thursday's and Fnday's takeover-fueled strength is unlikely to lead to immediate new highs, but is probably the start of a new base formation which could presage such highs. The action of the Utilities, unsurprisingly, represents the opposite extreme. The rise of the DJUA from its crash lows has been only 18. A high above the 190 level was just recently attained for the third time in the past year and a half, and, like the Industrials, the Utility index has recently been confined within a fairly narrow trading range. in this case between 191 and 182. Decisive penetration of this range on the downside could suggest a fairly significant retracement. perhaps as much as half of the rise since the 1987 low of 160. It is worthy of note, though, that this range has been able to hold so far in the face of heavy pressure from the bond market. All of this. of course, fits within the context of what we conceive to be the longer-term pattern. It has been our view that the market cycle which began in October, 1987 would ultimately come to constitute an accumulation area for a longer-range advance. Given this assumption, it would be normal to expect the rising phase of the cycle to be relatively modest in extent. ThIS largely has been the case—Iess so with the Transports and to a fault in the case of the Utilities. It remains our view that this reaccumulation pattern is likely to continue. ANTHONY W. TARELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) 2289.77 S & P 500 (1200) 294.24 Cumulative Index (3/30/89) 4212.00 AWTebh No statement or ex pression of oplmon or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any secunty referred to or menlloned The matler IS presented merely for the convemence of the subsCriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor ot the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc ,as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later taKe, poSitions or trades In respect to any secuntles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thIS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered With the SEC asan Investment adVISor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

-, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 085435209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (60919872300 – April 7, 1989 The subject of this leiter will be the stock-market crash of 1987. We have no particular excuse for returning- once- again to this-rather painful- subject. –Possibly-ourchoice -was–stimulated -by -the – – – – – 1 1 – fact that the central New Jersey spring has lately been interrupted by a series of cold, gray days. Perhaps it is because the market remains locked in a narrow lOO-point trading range, which, as a subject for discussion, we have exhausted over the past two weeks. Or, conceivably. it is that a yet longer-term perspective on the events of a year and a half ago may provide some helpful insights into the current market environment. In any case. here goes. On August 25, 1987, the Dow reached its all-time high at 2722.42. As late as early October, it was still within eighty points of that high. On Tuesday, October 13, four trading days prior to the crash, it was down less than 8 at 2508.16. Then, three successive days of decline erased 262 points by the end of the week, and, Monday, October 19 brought the crash itself, a 500-plus-point plunge on 600 million shares of volume. For the Dow, that day's close of 1738.74 remains the low, although it was tested six weeks later in December. The obvious comparison. indeed the only comparison, is wIth 1929, and we. along with many others. duly noted the fact at the time. The October 19 fall, 22 in a single day, was almost twice as great as that for the worst day of 1929, and the two-day (Friday-Monday) drop also set a record. After the initial fall, the 1929 break was extended with a further leg down, so that the total 1989 drop of 36 did fall short of the earlier 48 plunge. It was scant comfort at the time. The writer's late father. whose career included the 1920's and 1930's, once became exasperated with gloomy predictions which recalled that era and used the phrase, Relax, Bustera You'll never see 1929 again. In one sense, this assertion turned out, years later, to be incorrect. and yet. in another sense, it was still prophetic. To the extent that he was using 1929 as shorthand for 1929-1932 the assertion remains correct. For the salient difference between 1929 and 1987 is that 1988-1989, so far at least, remains the polar opposite of 1930-1931. We find ourselves today, 19 months following the August, 1987 market high, having recovered almost two-thirds of the ground lost. Within a comparable timeframe 60 years ago, the Dow had moved 20 below its November, 1929 low. It would later be cut to a quarter—of 'that value. By the time 1931 rolled around. moreover. the stock market was the least of the nation's worries. The year's Gross National Product would be down 25 from its 1929 level on its way to even lower figures in 1932 and 1933. The two paths having diverged so dramatically, we should be compelled to keep asking ourselves why. One explanation, which is rapidly attaining the status of conventional wisdom, (and WIll probably continue to do so as 1987 recedes further into the past) may be called the It-Was-All-A-Bad-Dream theory. Protagonists of this hynnthesis are fond of pointin out that the market was at basically the same level (in the 1900's) at both its 1986 and 1987 close. Eliminating 1987 from a chart produces a lovely ongoing—if slowing—bull market. This thinking is buttressed by the fact that the break can be. at least partially, explained by recent structural anomalies in the market, i.e. the emergence of derivative products and such esoteric illusions as portfolio insurance. The more optimistic proponents of this theory would hold that we have now recognized the problems, put them behind us, and can get on with our business. There is much to be said for this argument. We have deplored for many years the tendency to link 1929 and 1930-32 as inseparable phenomena. The former, we have always contended, was market related. The causes of the latter, where the real damage was done, were far more fundamental. The late 1980's and 1990's may turn out to confirm this thesis. The 1929 crash will have recurred without the consequences of the 1930's depression. Yet, as market technicians, we cannot help but feel that 1987 will leave a number of footprints. Our own impression is that we are seeing some of these footprints at the momenC Our evidence for this remains largely anecdotal, although we are working on quantifying it. However, we find ourselves amazed at the number of stocks which. at this moment. are hesitating as they reach the overhea.d supply. which stems, for the most part, from the lower limits of 1987 trading ranges. Another question which 1987 raises in our own mind centers around the speed with which it developed. A 36 bearmarket fall is not without precedent. Having- it compressed into two months (the bulk of it into four days) is something else again. Not only was the break frighteningly precipitous, but the formation of the tops leading to that break took place with equally unusual rapidity. It is of course possible that this was simply an aberration. but we are, honestly, not so sure. We would be failing in our responsibility were we not to be vigilant in watChing for the same speedy formation of distributional patterns which occurred two years ago. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials 02 00) 2298.39 S & P 500 (1200) 295.91 Cumulative Index (4/6/89) 4272.48 AWTebh No statement or epresslon of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or IndlreC1ly, an offer orthe sollCltalion of an offerlo buy or sell any security referred to or menlloned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our Informallon to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Informallon Delafleld, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, POSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to rts Investment adVisory and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any secunty mentioned herem IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 r– April 14, 1989 It has been a while since the table below appeared in this space, but this will be neither the we- -,-first northe last occasion whi,,-h it has graced these pages. It outlines our own interpretation of the four'year-cycle, pattern -which, -iirmly–contIJiUe' ,to believe, iSllusefUJ. aspect fr6mwhich to view the stock market The table shows some relevant statistics for the 24 completed cycles since the DJIA was first computed late in the last century. '- LOW AS HIGH AS START —lA–TE— DJIA ——- HIGH -D–A-TE—- –D–JI-A– LOW TOTAL —D-A-TE— DJIA ——- M–O-S MOS ADV — MOS A-D-V- r. A-D-V- '- OF OF D–EC- P-R-E-V—LO-W- PREV HIGH ——— JUN 1896 30.22 APR 1999 5.90 JAN 1901 49.53 55 34 62 82 -10 0 0 JAN 1901 49.53 JUN 1901 56.53 NOV 1903 32.09 34 5 15 14 -43 164 103 NOV 1903 32.09 JAN 1906 72 .32 NOV 1907 40.83 48 06 54 125 -44 65 128 NOV 1907 40.83 NOV 1909 71.95 OCT 1911 56.22 47 24 51 76 -22 127 99 OCT 1911 56.22 tEC 1912 64.50 M 1915 58.29 41 14 34 15 -10 138 90 MAR 1915 58.29 NOli 1916 107.89 DEC 1917 70.17 33 00 61 85 -35 104 167 EC 1917 70.17 OCT 1919 113.91 AUG 19!1 66.93 44 2! 50 62 -41 1!0 106 AUG 19!1 66.93 MAR 19!3 103.87 JUL 1923 89.32 23 19 83 55 -l 95 91 JUL 19!3 89.32 SEP 1929 364.93 NOV 1929 232.60 76 74 97 309 -36 133 351 NOV 1929 232.60 AP 1930 288.17 JUL 1932 46.19 32 5 16 24 -84 260 79 JUL 1932 46.19 FEB 1934 107.26 SEP 1934 90.54 06 19 73 132 -16 20 37 SEP 1934 90.54 MAR 1937 188.40 APR 1938 112.85 43 30 70 108 -40 196 176 APF 1938 112.85 NOV 1938 151.96 AF'P 1942 97.79 48 7 15 35 -36 125 81 APR 194! 97.79 JUN 1946 207.32 NOV 1946 168.94 55 50 91 112 -19 87 136 NOV 1946 168.94 JUN 1948 191.05 JUN 11;.49 165.5Q 31 19 61 13 -13 173 92 JUN 1949 165.59 JAN 1953 288.44 SEP 1953 !61.9(l 51 43 84 74 -9 98 151 SEF 1953 261.90 JUL 1957 514.64 DEC l Q 57 436.9! 51 46 90 97 -15 158 178 lEe 1957 436.92 DEC 19Q 1 728.44 JUN 1962 57!.64 54 48 89 67 -!1 167 14! .tUN 1962 57!. 64 JAN 1966 985.93 OCT 1966 778.10 5.2 '3 83 7! -21 131 135 OCT 1966 778.10 DEC 1968 968.39 MA 1970 691.96 43 '21. 60 24 -29 136 98 MAY 1970 691.Q6 JAN 1973 10!6.82 tEC 1974 596.50 55 32 58 48 -4! 89 106 — DEC 1974 596.50 SEP 1976 994.37 MAR 1978 756.14 39 1 54 67 -24 86 97 MAR 1978 756.14 (iP 1981 1004.86 JUL 198 818.41 50 37 71 33 -19 17 101 'IUl1ge2'-'Bl–e–41ttCt19B7o-55OI—IEC19B7–19-1()-U7-65'..tfte…..944B-l0S..-264 — — — — — —- —- AVERAGE – JUNE 1896-JUI. Y 19B! 46 30 63 81 -28 126 131 – – I – The figures shown are the average price for the Dow at the start, the high point, and the end of each cycle, the cycles being measured from low to low. The following columns give the length of the cycle in months, the number of those months in an advancing phase, and the percentage of the total months spent in the advancing phase. Following is the percentage rise in the upward phase and the subsequent percentage decline. The 46-month average length is the reason for the appellation, four-year cycle. There have been exceptions (we will come to this), but note how many of the cycles have approximated that length. Some two thirds have, indeed, been between 41 and 55 months in extent. There appears to be a slight tendency, observed here in the past, for the latter cycles to be lengthening. Seven of the nine cycles since 1949 have exceeded 50 months in length. There has been little recent discussion of the four-year cycle because the last half-dozen or so years have been difficult to analyze in these terms. If we assume the last cycle to have begun in Summer, 1982 and ended in 1987, two screamingly obvious low points, we get a 65-month cycle—the second longest on record, exceeded only by the 76-month cycle from July, 1923 to November, 1929. Likewise, the 224 rise in the 1982-1987 period is exceeded only by its predecessor in the 1920's. We can get around this difficulty by dividing July, 1982-December, 1987 into two components, recognizing a high in January, 1984, a second cycle having begun in the following July. This, however, results in two abnormally short cycles, the first one of which, at 24 months, would be the second shortest on record. In any case, we are disinclined to write off the four-year-cycle pattern because of these difficulties. It seems obvious to us that October or December 1987 (take your choice) represents a major low. Thus, we have been, since that time, in a cycle bull market. –.- — It has been to date a somewhat anemic one. The advance to the February average price of 2304.30 has been 20.6 percent, but there have, in the past, been fairly short advancing phases—for example, January to June 1901, October, 1911 to December, 1912, and, especially, November, 1946 to June, 1948. So far, the advance from December has consumed only 14 months, but again, as a glance at the table will show, this also is not without precedent. There exists no certain evidence in this analysis that the current rIse is over, but, as our readers know, our working scenario is that the present cycle will complete without an unusually large advance having taken place. Likewise. we expect the subsequent correction to be relatively small. The lapse of only 16 months to date, however, suggests that the whole process may take considerably more time. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (1200) 2328.45 S & P 500 (1200) 298.27 Cumulative Index (4/13/89) 4288.66 AWTebh No stalement or expressIon of oplruon or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indlrectty, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any securIty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the converuence of the subscrIber While we believe the sources 01 our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hIS own InvestIgatIOn and information Delalield, Harvey, Tabellinc , as a corporallon and Its offIcers or emptoyees, may now have, or may later take, POSItions or trades In respect to any securrlJes mentIOned In thIS 01 any future Issue, and such pOSItIOn may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS regIstered wrth the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Informallon on any security menlloned herein IS available on request

,-. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 April 21, 1989 The shsrp, sudden upward move into new high territory on Tuesday and Wednesday suggests that -the market's short-term -corrective -phase, -which beganon .F..bruary 7.th ,-may ,have.been completed with the double low at 2243 on March 1st and March 23rd. This 4.4 pullbaok would qualify as the smallest correction of the bull market so far. This, Indeed, is encouraging, but it is hard to find other signs of Improvement. The Tuesday rise produced a tepid 173 new 52-week highs, this with the Dow having been under 2000 a year ago. Breadth action, moreover, remains subpar, and we ask the reader to bear with us In our explanation of the massive panoply of numbers set out in the table below. Pts Pc\. Pcl 1 Chanse lIe Adv lIe – Pts Pel Pel tl Chane ite Ay ile – Pt. Pcl Pcl 1 Ch.. 11e Adv ile – Ph Pd. Pel 1 D.l, Ch,n. il. Adv ile – -.6AY 31 88 ' 48 99 111 9b -3 ftAR 29 88 18.57 90 102 83 -7 HAR 31 88 9.94 76 B24' -21 FEB 7 89 4.82 61 616 1 APR 6 BS 64.16 99 1187 94 -5 JUN 30 88 19.73 89 1164 93 4 APR 3 89 11.18 7 82 61 -14 OCT '89 4.4 61 864 64 3 5EP 2 88 52.28 99 1J97 96 -3 JUH 3 88 18.85 89 946 74 -15 NOV IS 88 9.96 75 841 61 -14 MAR 8 89 4.83 61 785 4 -12 JUH 8 88 48.36 99 1306 97 -2 OCT 18 88 19.39 89 891 67 -22 JUN 17 89 9.78 74 662 30 -44 DEC 1 88 4.27 60 817'4 -6 JUL 29 88 46.40 99 1178 94 -4 MAR 6 89 20.53 89 995 81 -9 JUL 14 88 9.25 73 779 49 -24 JUH 6 88 3.91 5' 854 61 2 OCT 20 88 43.92 98 1058 86 -12 MAR 16 89 20.17 8S 939 74 -14 APR 26 BS 8.62 72 926 12 0 DEC 13 88 3.91'9 '41 16 -43 JUN 22 88 43.03 98 1144 92 -6 AUG 16 99 17.24 9 984 6S -23 OCT 29 88 9.06 72 68 61 -11 DEC 28 89 3.1'6 790 50 -8 OCT 7 ae 42.68 99 1140 92 -6 HAY 16 88 17.08 88 901 68 -20 APR 11 89 9.71 72 978 65 -7 NOU 21 88 3.'. 56 5. 19 -39 JAN 27 89 43.75 9a 929 70 -28 APR 5 99 16.91 99 915 70 -18 JAN 25 89 9.46 72 920 54 -18 SEP 12 98 3.56 56 606 24 -34 AUG 24 88 37.34 98 1089 89 -9 SEP 14 88 17.60 97 979 79 -9 APR 15 88 8.29 72 573 20 -52 JAN 89 3.'8 ' '6 16 APR 14 89 41.06 97 1074 89 -9 DEC 16 88 17.71 87 998 80 -7 OCT 10 88 8.71 71 693 38 -33 JAN 13 S' 3.75,8 836'6 -2 APR 18 89 41.61 97 1047 85 -12 JAN 31 89 18.21 66 960 75 -11 JUN 10 68 8.36 71 675 64 -7 HAR 21 8' 3.7' 56 995 69 II JAM 24 99 38.04 97 1009 91 -16 HAR 28 89 17.68 86 638 60 -26 DEC 23 88 8.57 71 651 64 -7 APR 2' 88 J.15 755.4 -13 SEP 29 88 33.79 97 1065 88 -9 DEC 29 88 16.25 85 987 78 -, AY 19 88 7.63 71 6.0 27 -.. 5EP 28 88 3.20 5' 0 46 -11 JUM 1 88 32.89 97 1290 97 0 JUL 15 88 15.83 85 787 5. -34 HAR 3 89 8.5e 70 865 64 -6 5EP 21 88 3.02'6 689 36 -20 JAM 4 89 33.04 96 1187 94 -2 HAY 3 88 15.09 85 897 66 -19 fEB 28 89 8.03 69 'II 70 1 OCT 2' 86 3.02'6 7.9 39 -18 DEC 5 88 31.48 94 929 71 -2S JAM 12 89 15.89 84 907 68 -16 APR 12 89 8.07 68 818 54 -14 NOV 8 88 2.85 56 8'2 61 , -Z' ' . 7JUL 28 88 28.63 95 884 67 -28 NOV 23 88 14.58 83 893 70 -13 OCT 17 88 7.29 68 7.9.3 AUG J 88 2. 6 -9 PR 22 88 27.67 95 940 74 -17 NOV 17 88 13.87 83 435 24 -57 OCT 13 88 '.12 68 71 45 -23 HAY 12 88 2.14 6,1 -J APR 8 88 29.02 95 1110 90 -5 APR 12 88 14.09 83 898 47 -14 AUG 26 88 6.58 67 72' 2 -Z5 NOV ' . 8 2.31'4 I JO 24 JUt S 88 27.03 94 934 74 -18 KAR 27 89 14.82 82 767 48 -34 JUH 15 88 6.93 67 781 48 -19 OCT 21 88 2.31 54 , 44 -10 JaM 21 88 25.24 94 937 7S -17 JUL 20 88 13.34 81 849 60 -21 MOU 28 88 6.76 67 110 38 -29 JUL 26 88 2.14 54 764 41 -1 lEe 6 88 25.40 94 914 69 -25 NOV 3 B8 13.51 81 781 48 -33 FEB 16 89 7.50 61 816 5 -12 APA 21 88 1.91'4 668 J2 -22 JUN 14 88 25.01 74 110489 -5 rtAR 15 89 14.29 81 798 53 -28 IAPR 19 89 7.51 67 827 55 -12 MfIJ 1 88 1.'8'2 8JO 5h – – – – ——-1;;-;1—–!-!- !.- -3–!–;–2 -!1i-;- -;- FEB 1 89 26.01 93 1095 89 -4 JAM S 89 12.86 80 837 59 -21 IAPR '5 89 6.60 65 181 50 -15 fEI 21 et i.6S,1 611 J -ze JAil 26 89 25.18 92 962 15 -17 .JAil 18 89 24.11 72 1036 B4 -8 MY 24 88 21.05 92 948 76 -16 ,JUJII 28 88 22.41 '12 905 71 -15 MR 13 89 24.11 92 878 os -21 NOV 15 88 12.09 79 FEB 17 89 13.39 79 AIL 13 88 U.91 79 IIOV 22 88 U.73 19 APR '89 12.83 78 715 38 -41 946 75 -4 782 48 -31 719 40 -39 881 66 -12 SEf 16 B8 AfR U B8 Sf 9 88 MY 24 88 IfOV Z. 82 5.87 ,I 5.eo 65 5.69 44 5.3e 64 5.e7 44 889 67 2 939 71 4 8-46 40 -4 7f!7 53 -11 468!O -J.4 MR i8 as iIWG 18 8S OCT 6 se MR z.e Be ,AOO 2 sa i.D'1 i.07 50 i.06 50 0.82 50 0.11 49 716 140 J1 42 –Ue ,ez.'2 2 .48 10 -40 1U 4i –e IUlR 11 ae 21.12 '12 995 79 -13 RAY 2 88 10.94 71 617 24 -53 11M 29 S9 5.98 64 741 42 -22 . 1 7 o.n ..' 6f1 J4 -I' 0.9.'…. n aa 2l.O'!i 92 '39 71 -21 lIAR 31 89 12.28 77 1038 as 8 AUG 11 ee 5.16 43 . u 29 -34 fSP 7 88 !' lID 88 21.91 91 841 58 -33 JlK. 25 88 10.84 77 M!2 34 -43 ..II&. U ea 516 63 '759 4' -Jt 7 a 050' f'IItI 78 MIl .2 119 22..67 91 982 80 -11 SP 6 88 10.67 71 Eel t5 -22 FEr 2J 89 553 OJ 741 44 -19 ,JM 19 eJ 016 …, e … 5J I IS 89 22.68 91 907 69 –22 SEP 13 &e 1067 7& 7B5 51 -25 – 9 S9 5.17 62 BeO 44 2 J.4 IS'f OH .., t.e,JJli -14 I!OV 29 118 20.09 90 938 73 -17 SEP.,,3 88 10.67 76 744 42 -34 1tU&l7 88 ;45 &1 660 U -10 Our breadth index reached its high on March 11. 1988. and there have been. since then. 216 trading days of which 151 saw the DJIA advance. Statistics for each of those 151 days are shown above. Although point changes are shown. the days are ranked in order by percentage change In the Dow. Thus the 74.68-point. 3.8 advance of May 31st is listed first. The next figure shown for that day is the advance's percentile within all of the 11.092 trading days since 1946. The rise exceeds that of more than 99\ of such days. (Indeed. it is the 19th largest advance in the entire period.) As the table shows, however. it produced only 1.211 advanefng stocks. 62 of all Issues traded. On this basis. the dill' ranks only in the 96th percentile of all trading days since 1946. The difference (96 less 99) is shown in the final column. Similar statistics are given for all 151 days. According to this standard. on no fewer than 135 of the 151 advaneing days in the past 13 months, breadth action WIlS subpar. The average difference between the percentile based on percentage advance in the Dow and the percentile based on percentage of advaneing stocks was 15. l8king all of the 276 days in the stndy. the average percentage of advaneing stocks out of all issues traded 1I8S 37.n Despite the fact that the period in question was a bull market. this is below the 39.71 average which includes all bull and beAr markets since 1946. This continuing beIo..-average breadth suggests that further market strength. whfJe JfkeJy. will be relatively .adest and characterized by rotational leadership. as has been the with the ad so far. no… -…s Industrials nzl!O) Z3!13.911 s P 500 (lZOO) 39i.n JUT'THOIIGY 11'. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL me. Culnu!a1live Index (4ZIl89) 0419.1111. A1FTlt No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an oHer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell anysecurrty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own InvestlQallOn and In.formatlon Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc ,as a corporation and liS officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, POSitionS or trades In respect to any securrlles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pasloon may be dlfferenlfrom any VIews now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other ISsue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, whICh IS registered with the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may gIVe advice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any olher Issue Further information on any secUrity menllOned herein IS available on request

'U'Lii.\ 1mIE Il.Il. ' S IiUiILii.\iii IEV 1l.1E'U''U'1E1Rl —- 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 April 28, 1989 – Yesterday's .strengthpovided. uS.JVitLoJ'LL-Qf.Jhos'l.. rreQPporju!'it!l .10 ,make a defin,ietl,,vce.-,..- statement about the stock market. With new highs being reached in-the Dow, we,couldSay; without fear of contradiction, that, as of last night's close, a bull market existed. That statement, unfortunately, does not help us all that much. For every bull market has a final high, and, as each successive peak is made, it is necessary to examine the question of whether it was that final high or, at least, fairly close in price and time to what will come to be known as the final high. Two weeks ago in this space we reintroduced the concept of the four-year cycle, suggesting that it might be emerging as a useful context in which to discuss the current market. Given yesterday's ascent into new high territory, let us then review current market action from this perspective. We pointed out two weeks ago that, if one views cycles from low to low, there have been 24 such since 1896, the last one having completed at the December, 1987 low of 1910.07. (Average prices for the month are used in this study.) These 24 cycles have averaged 46 months in length. Length, however, is only one of many aspects in which a given market cycle may be viewed. Another aspect is the cycle's horizontal shape, the position of the high in terms of time between the two low points. On average, past cycles have spent 30 months advancing, but there has been wide variation, with as few as 5-7 months spent in an advancing phase and as many as 74 months (more than 6 years). The market has spent as little as 15 and as much as 97 of a cycle's total length in its advancing phase, with the average being 63 The vertical shape of a cycle refers to the extent of the cycle's advance and how much of this is retraced by the ensuing decline. The record advance was the 309 rise from July, 1923 to September, 1929 and, interestingly, the July 1982-August 1987 cycle takes second place with a 224 rise. Declining phases have amounted to as little as 9 (January-September 1953) and as much as 84 (April 1930-July 1932). The final way in which a cycle can be viewed is in relation I—–to-'-the–cycle–which–precededit;' one ..suchtn-easure–being….the–cycle's-peak….expressed –as—-S — percentage of the previous one. The four cycles which occurred between October, 1966 and July, 1982 all had similar highs (1000, plus or minus, on the Dow). In the last cycle, as we all know, the market broke into new high territory with the August, 1987 high (2655) being 233 of the April, 1981 prior cycle peak. Where are we now The current cycle, from its December, 1987 low, has lasted for 16 months, all of it so far, obviously, constituting an advancing phase. Most cycles (20 of 24) have had an advancing phase longer than this. The average is 30 months, which, in the present case, would mean an advance continuing until June, 1990. The average price for April, through yesterday, was 2345.23, 22.8 above the 1910.07 average price for December, 1987. There have been bull phases that have been cut short after an advance of this magnitude, 1966-1968 being the most recent one. However, the four post-World-War-Il cycles averaged 77 advances, and even the relatively tepid advances of 1966-1981 averaged 43 In terms of comparison to the previous cycle, we remain of course, on the Industrials at least, well below the August, 1987 high, although the Transportation Average has, of course, exceeded this peak. Using all of this as a framework for a forecast, our own market scenario remains little changed from what we have been expressing. We think, given the recent strength and the relative shortness of the advance so far, that strength could be extended further into 1989, perhaps indeed into early 1990. In view of the extent of the 1982-1987 cycle advance, however, we would expect the rising phase to be smaller than most previous cycles. It is our view, at the moment at least, that this cycle peak will not significantly exceed the 1987 high before the cycle is complete. Among the reasons for this, reasons which we intend to discuss in future issues, are the relative narrowness of the advance so far and the historical tendency for the bulk of advances to take place in their early stages. . It is obviously early on to start worrying about the declining phase of the current cycle, since it may well not begin for many months. but we continue to feel that it also will be relatively limited in extent. Later evidence could change this opinion also, but we do not think that current evidence justifies the extreme pessimism expressed by a significant minority of investment commentators. Meanwhile, yesterday's strength confirms the current existence of a cycle bull phase. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (12 00) Cumulative Index (4/27/89) AWTlt 2418.80 308.75 4400.86 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an offer orthe sohcllallon of an offer to buy or sell any securrty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we beheve the sources of our Information to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Informahon Delafield, Harvey, Tabelltnc, as a corporallon and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, positions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posilion may be different from any views now or hereatter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 May 5, 1989 In a week generally characterized by dullness, with pullbacks from last week's highs.in the widely- follow,nildlca toneminor -bnght spot weilt IatgeljrunnOtici;dand-may , therefore, I)-e worthy of comment. On Monday, the Dow Jones Utility Average closed at 192.80 and extended this gain slightly (above 193) on Tuesday morning before pulling back. This marked the first time that the average had traded at the 192 level subsequent to its downward plunge through that price in October, 1987. This has produced the chart pattern below on a 2-point-unit curt of the &D c9 &10 QOO II 190 1'0 1/0 ,-.. I(Q – . .- II 150 The posting at 192 can, Obviously, be read as an upside breakout, with the most conservative upside target, resulting from a reading at B-C, of 226 which, of course, would be a test of the 1987 high. A reading of the entire base at A-C would produce a truly startling price target of 256. Now at this point, the first of a whole series of caveats must be introduced, this one relating to the massive overhead supply starting at around the 200 level. As we have noted here, many issues have already tested their comparable supply and have encountered a great deal of resistance. We would expect the utilities to experience equal difficulty. Individual stock patterns, of course, vary. A fair number of gas utilities have already broken out of their base formations, while most electric utilities have not, and those individual companies beset by nuclear problems generally have no bases at all. However, a typical current example might be Public Service Enterprise Group, now around 24, which has held, since the crash, between 20 and 26. A breakout from this range could suggest a possible 35 followed by higher levels. It may well be asked why we are discussing a laggard average at a time when the Transportation Index has posted a newall-time high and other major indices continue in cycle bull markets. The reason is the possibility that the utility indicator may be telling us something about interest rates. The current dividend for the Dow utilities is just over 15, producing a yield of 7.81 at current levels. Were the first objective of 226 to be reached, that yield would become 6.64 and, at the second objective, 256, the yield would be 5.86. At 35, PSEG would yield 5.83 versus its current 8.24. These calculations assume no change in dividends. but, allowing for modest increases. we are looking at the possibility of utility commons producing 6-7 yields in the next couple of years. Attempting to project a plausible relationship between these levels and other money rates, a yield for AA Utility Bonds might be 1.2 to 1.3 times the utility-common yield. This could mean a rate for these issues of 7 1/4-9 versus the current 9.87. Long governments returning around the 7 range would be consistent with such a structure. Given current conventional thinking at least, such yields ought to be highly bullish for stocks. This is. of course, not totally certain, since such rates. were they to come under the stimulus of extended recession, would hardly be encouraging for eqUities. Nonetheless, the action of utility stocks as potential harbingers of interest-rate changes could be an important factor in today's markets. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials 02 00) 2402.49 S & P 500 (1200) 309.86 Cumulative Index (5/4/89) 4402.17 AWTcg No statement or expression of Opinion or any other matler herein contamed IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer crthe soitCltatlon of an offerlo buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convemence of the subSCriber While we beheve the sources of our informatIOn to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any BellOn to be laken by Ihe subscnber should be based on hiS own Invesllgatlon and Informallon Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc ,as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now haye, or may later take, POSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posItion may be dllferent from any vtews now or hereafter expressed tn thts or any other tssue Delafteld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, whtch tS regtstered with the SEC as an In\Jestmen! adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers tndependently or any statements made tn thiS or tn any other Issue Further information on any security menttoned herein IS avatlable on request

U'J.ii.\ ISlE n.. n..' S J.ii.\1Rl IEU' n..IEYYIER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 May 12, 1989 We often attempt to find ideas for this letter in issues we have written previously. In searching.ou!'..ti1e.wJoundthat.-n.Aprii 8 . 1988. some six months after the crash, we published charts on four stocks which-we -til-ought -were illustrative ofiii,,- 80rtSofpatterns thathad formed -, up to that point. One way of viewing the ensuing year is to trace the development of these four since our letter. The chart at left is an exact reprint of the first year-ago exhibit. a one-point chart on Hershey Foods. covering the early 1960's to 1983. Our purpose in citing that chart was to indicate that multi-year bases. such as this one, were practically non-existent a year ago since such patterns (This one eventually produced a rise to over 200 after split adjustment for Hershey) had not. in the half-year following the crash. had time to form. In the year since that time. it is quite astounding how much base formation activity has taken place, and. interestingly, one stock that has undergone such activity is Hershey. whose pattern today. in its current capitalization, is shown at right. The base at 21-28 is almost as wide as the earlier one between 5 and 16, which took T from .1966to.1981to develop .-f-his-speedy-fomation-ofsuch48ttens-has-been.one. of-the -majo'—–I bullish developments of the past year. The second pattern we cited as typical last April was Ford. at left above on a two-paint-unit baSIS. (In all three of the graphs above. the arrow indicates the last posting of the chart when originally published.) We noted that this was the most common sort of pattern at that time. having produced a base implying a test of its 1987 high but not a great deal more. As can be seen, such a test has ensued. The subsequent lateral formation at 56-48 can now be viewed as a potential top which, given a downside breakout to 46. would imply a test of the crash lows. We cited International Paper center. 2-point, as a more bullish pattern based on the fact that its 1987 reaccumulation pattern was a great deal broader than that of Ford and was. at that time. sufficient to suggest penetration of pre-crash highs. 80 far the stack has not shown significantly better action. but the pattern has continued to develop positively. and ultimate penetration of 1987 peaks continues to be indicated now J as it was then. Finally. we showed the two-point chart on IBM (right) and noted that its pattern looked more like distribution than accumulation. the stock being at that time close to its October. 1987 low. Following interim strength (including a false breakout in early 1989), it has moved back to where it was a year ago, and the stock, despite a 700-point move in the Dow, is today within a few points of its crash bottom. Given this sort of relative strength, no immediate move appears indicated. It is. we think, the interplay between developing patterns such as these which will govern intermediate-term market action. On the bullish side, one can note the accelerated development of bases in such stocks as Hershey and the continued positive action shown in patterns similar to IP. On the other hand. potential tops, as in Ford, are beginning to develop in some cases, and desultory patterns like IBM's are still not uncommon in major issues. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY. TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (1200) 2421.74 8 & P 500 (1200) 311.44 Cumulative Index (5/11/89) 4405.66 AWTebh No statement or expression 01 opInion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to bedeemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offeror the solicitation of an offer to buy orsel1 any secunty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely lor the convenience of the subscnber While we beheve the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor althe statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own investigation and informatIOn Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and lIs officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, positions or trades In respect to any secUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSllton may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey Tabellinc ,WhiCh IS registered With the SEC as an investment adVisor, may give advice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently 01 any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any secunty menlloned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (6091987-2300 May 19, 1989 The stock market staged a satisfactory follow-up to 18St week's rally. as it posted further new 'e!- ….. bullmar.ket. highs. in…..thJs .,-Y'ek!s trading ..–..In .!hepces,s. itshrugge.!t- oie n!'lsL..a CPl increas..e, ,,,………..,.. which would. in all probability. have sent it reeling a few' months ago. Certainly. current -; behavior seems to indicate that the course of least resistance is upward4 If all this seems a bit strange to many investors, there exists some justification. Yesterday was the 400th trading day since October 19, 1987. The spectacle of a market developing new peaks in upside rnomentum—and that is what this market seems to be doing—at this late a date is. if not unprecedented, at least historically unusual. Simple measures are often the best, and a measure of market momentum which suffices for many purposes is a simple 125-day (six month) rate of change. That measure (the monthly high is plotted) is shown as the lower line on the chart below, which covers a 43-year history for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. DOW JONES INDUSTRIRL RVERRGE – – – – – – – – – 1HIGH DF 125 DW.).Cjl8NGE…., As the chart quite clearly shows, most major upswings in the past have been accompanied by well defined momentum peaks. For the most part, these peaks have tended to occur very early in the upside move. In all but two cases during the period shown, the momentum peak for major bull markets occurred in the first half of the move's timespan, and. in the majority of cases, momentum topped out in the first third of the bull market's duration. In the 21-month upswing lasting from December, 1974 to September, 1976, for example, the momentum peak was attained after six months, in June, 1975. Prior to the 1960's, the peaks also tended to occur when upside moves still had a long way to go. In the bull markets from 1949 to 1962, momentum peaks occurred before half the total move had been completed The 1957 bull market began at 420 on the Dow. Momentum topped with the DJIA at 565. It ultimately reached 735 However this pattern subsequently changed. After 1966. well over two-thirds of the bull market's percentage advance tended to be over by the time momentum topped out. Following May. 1970, momentum hit its high after the Dow had moved from 631 to 948 The final peak was 1052. The question at the moment. of course, is whether the new high in momentum indicates a further protracted market rise. On the face of it. this could be the case. But. as noted above, a momentum peak this late is unusual. A high in momentum has occurred later than 400 days into a bull market only three times in the past, in 1966-68, 1978-80, and 1984-87. In the latter case, the move was barely half over when momentum topped. but in the other two cases, more than 80 of the move, both in time and amplitude. had taken place. Thus, the message being sent by increasing upside momentum at the moment remains somewhat ambiguous. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (5/18/89) 2493.95 321.26 4497.08 AWTebh No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter hereIn contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlrecUyor mdlrectly, an offer Ot the solicl1al1on of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or menlloned The matter IS presented merely for the convemence of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our mformatlon to be reliable, we 10 no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nOt of the statements made herem Any action to be taken by the subscnber should be based on his own investigation aod Informalton Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporallon and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, POSitions or trades In respect to any securilies mentIOned In thiS or any future Issue, and such poSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adviSOry and other customers mdependently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further mformaMn on any security mentioned herein IS avatlable on request