Viewing Month: December 1989

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 01, 1989

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 01, 1989

Tabell's Market Letter - December 01, 1989
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 December 1. 1989 ,– – Wediscuseo llfstweek tlle-lIistributional top–formed b y-th'e-1)owJones I ndu strial'Avera-ge—-….. between August and October and noted that, at the October lows', the fIrst downside objective' which could be derived from that top had been reached. We noted. though. that lower targets were possible. We went on to delineate the trading range formed following the low. suggesting that a downside breakout from that range would probably mean a move toward those lower targets. while an upside breakout. with a price objective of 2750. would suggest a test of the early October bull-market highs. That upside breakout duly took place this week. and it seems appropriate. therefore. to look for further short-term strength. A retest of the old highs at this early date is. quite honestly. not the sort of technical action we would have preferred to see. It would have been a great deal more positive had the base had time to broaden further. If short-term strength continues from these levels. only the breadth and vitality of the move will afford clues as to its continuance. Meanwhile, cross-currents abound. The truism that the advance is being led by a small number of stocks is no less valid for having been widely broadcast. Market breadth peaked back on August 8, 79 trading days ago. Without going into the details of advance-decline behavior. suffIce it to say that breadth seems to be weaker now than was the case in the last three quarters of 1988. This makes an ultimate confirmation (which, in the prior case, finally took place in summer. 1989) even less likely. Along the same lines, the number of new, 52-week highs has been contracting, and the total of new lows expanding. Monday. October 16 (when the market opened lower before the recovery from Friday the 13th took place) saw 227 new lows. a figure well in excess of 5 of all issues traded. This is an early warning sign that tends to occur somewhere around the advanced stages of bull markets. Since October 13. new-high totals generally have not been much greater. and, in most cases, have failed to exceed daily new lows. 1….,,..,. ,.J1JleJ'.Lcan. in addition, be little doubt that indivillua.LcbJ!J'Lllatterns on an overall basis – are showing deterioration. – This is not terribly surprising, since it would have been almost impossible for the number of favorable chart patterns to have increased much beyond its level of mid-summer. This weakness is, nonetheless, a factor to be considered. Finally. we have the abysmal action of the TransportatIon sector with the DJTA having reached yet another new low at 1158.25 just before Thanksgiving. That figure. to put it into perspective. was almost 18 below the Average's close on Friday. October 13. There exist, on the other hand, some favorable indications. The very fact of the advance's having been restricted to high-grade stocks has plunged the relative strength of unweighted market averages to new lows. The ratio of the Value Line Composite to the S & P 500. for example, is almost as low as it was at its all-time bottom in late 1974. No upturn in secondary issues is yet evident, but it is hard to see them continuing much lower on a relative basis. In addition, a number of short-term confidence barometers, particularly those based on option activity, appear to be giving favorable indications. Yesterday's close, moreover, makes November an up month, auguring higher prices for six to nine months ahead. As we noted a fortnight ago. we can conceive of absolutely no reason why this should be true. but the reliability of this indicator is excellent. As we have been trying to suggest in previous issues, none of this should be surprising in a bull market now over two years old. It is perfectly logical. given this age. that signs of loss of momentum should begin to manifest themselves, and, indeed, they are so doing. None of this is to say that the actual bull market high was seen on October 9. and we have been voicing the opinion. which we still hold. that further new highs will be seen in 1990. Despite the rapldity with which the last market top. in 1987. formed. we would expect the ultimate peak for this bull market to conform to the classical pattern of slow loss of momentum over a protracted period of time. That timeframe could extend well into the upcoming year, but, as higher levelsare reached, an attitude of caution would become more and more appropriate. ' Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (11/30/89) AWTebh 2735.71 348.69 4846.76 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer orthe soliCitatIOn of an offer to buy or sell any secunty referred to or menboned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we believe the sources 01 our InformatIOn to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own investigation and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabel! Inc, as a corporation and lis officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue and such POSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabel! Inc, which IS registered wllh Ihe SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to ItS tnveslmenl adViSOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Informabon on any secunty mentioned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 08, 1989

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 08, 1989

Tabell's Market Letter - December 08, 1989
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s0Lii.\IBUEn.n.' Ia1iLii.\R IEO n.1EOOIER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 December 8, 1989 – Long.. termeaders'..of …this-letterwin '-recall–that-it-' is;–at'-least ..tosome'degree,. a .. slave – – -. atof tradition. It i8 our custom-, Year'end. to issue a series of three letters. the first R reviewing the year just past, the second (however inconvenient the timeframe might be) a forecast for the year ahead, and, finally, an updated treatise on the year-end rally. The 1989 review is not due until next week, but we would like to preface it at the moment by taking a somewhat longer term perspective. We want to examine what is, by now, certainly a minority view, but one which still exists. That view is the super-bearish case. The genesis for this view can be found in the October 19, 1987, 500-point, stock-market collapse. We contributed to that genesis ourselves, at the time, by noting that. in percentage terms, both the one-day and two-day drops completed on that date far exceeded anything that tock place during the fall of 1929. Indeed, in what seemed an almost eerie similarity, the 1929 market dropped 39 over 47 trading days, and the 1987 break produced a 36 fall in 38 trading days. Both were followed by two-day rallies, 19 in 1929, 17 in 1987. From that point, although it was hard to recognize at the time, the divergence began. By mid-November, the 1929 market had penetrated its crash low and ultimately wound up down 48, In 1987, the October 19 low held both on the initial test and a subsequent one in December. As the market began rising in early 1988, it was pointed out by a legion of pessimists that the 1929 break had, after all, been followed by a pretty good rally, lasting some six months to April. 1930 and producing a 48 advance. After six months, the DJIA in 1987 had moved ahead a bit over 20, but it was from this point that the major divergence tock place. Following April, 1930, the dreary market debacle of 1930-32 began. On October 9, 1930, the November 1929 low was broken, and, by the second anniversary of that low, it had been exceeded by 46. By contrast, ten days before the second anniversary of October 19, the Dow posted a new, all-time high, up 60 from that low. Had it duplicated the 1929 -1931 experience, it would, today, be somewhere under 1000. – – Yet, the voice of the extreme bear is still-heitrd. -It is still argu,fd that; although the current market has regained over 100 of the ground lost over a two-year period rather than only half the ground lost over a six-month period, all of the past two years constitutes a major top formation. This argument is often buttressed by reference to monetary indicators pointing in the direction of deflation and to the current, admittedly chaotic, state of the credit markets, awash in third-world debt, junk bonds, and. now, real estate loans. The present savings and loan crisis may, indeed, be taken as a metaphor for what is, admittedly, the less-than-optimal state of the American banking system at the moment. It may also, however, be used as an illustration of the differences between today and 60 years ago. Before weeping and wailing over what the S & L bail out is going to cost the taxpayer, it is worth recalling what is not happening. Any set of 1930's memorabilia includes photographs of long lines outside the doors of assorted financial institutions. By contrast, in 1989, the sorry state of the banking system is front-page material, but the bank-runs which ultimately led to a 30 monetary contractIon are absent courtesy of deposit insurance. Now this has not been achieved without cost, a fact that has, of late, become quite apparent. Indeed, steps should probably be taken to reduce that cost in the future. However, it is certainly arguable that, along with the admitted cost, there have been achieved some fairly important benefits. From a technical point of view. moreover, we think the current market scene is quite different from that of 60 years ago. As we interpret the 5000 some-odd individual stock graphs we have at our disposal, we find that most major downside objectives were reached two years ago. The most surprising part of October 1987's aftermath was the rapidity with which new bases formed. Indeed, many stocks in recent months have been reaching the upside objectives of those bases. This, in itself, should hardly be surprising following a two-year bull market, but the point is that any distributional-top formations which form at these levels will be new ones, not continuationsof.existing,pattern8 going back two or more-years. It is our thesis, in other words, that the post-1987 period can be interpreted very simply as an ordinary, normal market cycle. The 26 months that the market has spent in its 60 rise are, as we have tried to demonstrate, a perfectly normal timeframe for a bull market. Now, at some point—and we will probably be spending most of 1990 waiting for this to occur—a distributional top will be completed, and there will follow, as the night the day, a bear market. We think it likely, however, that the process will be more or less conventional and not the sort of Armageddon that the super-bear minority appears to foresee. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) 2735.71 S & P 500 (1200) 349.31 Cumulative Index (1217189) 4861.24 AWTebh No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an offeror the soliCitation of an offerto buy or sell any securrty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of Ihe subscriber While we beheve the sources of our information to be rehable, we to no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscnber should be based on his own InvestlgallOn and mformatron Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporallOn and Its oftlcers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to any secufltres mentioned In thiS or any luture Issue, and such poslllon may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc ,which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to ItS Inveslment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Informallon on any securlly mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 15, 1989

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 15, 1989

Tabell's Market Letter - December 15, 1989
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'U'IBUELL' S IRlIE'U' LIE'U''U'ERl 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 December 15, 1989 As we noted last week, tradition calls for this letter to be a review of the year 1989 in -;-Pteprationfor Q-t9.90;…fpre9BSt !-aYleek..ahence .-..Qne…..problewith…..producing-,,-a .. mar-ket …prediction ata fixed l time each year is-that at some year-ends the outlook appears fairly clear, while at others vision into the future is more clouded. The latter was the case a year ago when we produced a forecast which was, to be honest, wrong. We said, on December 23, 1988, that modest new highs above the 2183.50 close of last October would likely be attained It Unfortunately, however, we qualified that forecast by saying that, we do not expect, at this stage, an approach to the August, 1987 high of 2722.42. That high, of course, was not only approached, but indeed exceeded, if only by minor amounts, in most widely followed market averages. It is often useful, in cases like this, to try to ascertain precisely where one went wrong on the theory that those who do not learn from mistakes are bound to repeat them. As 1988 drew to a close, we were barely a year beyond the December, 1987 test of the October, 1987 lows. It was our thought that a decline as broad and sharp as that one had been would require a protracted basing period before it could move to new highs, and we used as our model the aftermath of the 1946 bear market, which lasted from the fall of that year through the summer of 1949. What was not apparent to us a year ago was the fact that the necessary rebasing process following the 1987 crash was largely complete—or complete in enough stocks to provide leadership for a bull market. The 1987 crash. at 38 trading days one of the shortest bear markets on record, was fOllowed. in turn, by a surprisingly short reaccumulation phase. It thus turned out that, six weeks prior to the forecast, there had already occurred a low which turned out to be the start of the current bull-market's most recent phase—the low of 2038.58 on the Dow on November 16. The following advance carried at least as far as the high of last October 9, when the Dow posted a newall-time peak at 2791.41. The post-1987 bull market had a rather unusual pattern which contributed to making a 1989 prediction a difficult one. 1988, essentially, had consisted of a protracted trading range with a -modest-upward-bias-, -This-was.-followed….by-alynamic…..uptl'i'rust4n-whlDow—aavanced some 37,.-1–' without a correction of as much as 5 during the entire process. This is contrary to the normal bull-market pattern, in which the dynamic rart of the move appears in the earlier stages; following which the market gradually loses momentum on the way to its ultimate peak. There is, however, some precedent for this particular shape. The most recent case which comes to mind is the upthrust between February, 1978 and April, 1981. The February bottom at 742.12 on the Dow was followed by a protracted trading range, during which that low was tested no fewer than three times, in fall 1978, fall 1979, and on Silver Thursday in April 1980. From that point the DJIA posted a 35 advance. In any case, what we have at the moment (or had until October 9) is a bull market. This very fact should, technically at least, make the issuance of a 1990 forecast a bit easier than was the case a year ago, when the eventual shape of that bull market was difficult to foresee. It seems axiomatic, moreover, that the low for that bull market occurred in October-December 1987, thus further defining the current phase as a two-year-old bull market. This puts us on a fairly firm historical footing and provides a platform from which we can proceed to a market forecast for the upcoming year. In order to complete a review of 1989, it is necessary to discuss the most recent market phase, comprising action subsequent to the October, 1989 high and including the mini-crash of Friday the 13th. It must be noted that the technical strength of the recovery from that crash falls well short of impressive. Breadth, for example, has been abysmal. This, of course, could also be said about the final nine months of 1988, at which point the failure of breadth to confirm new highs was clearly pointing us in the wrong direction. It should be pointed out, however, that the failure of a single indicator at one point in time should not be cause to ignore that indicator. We have, then, the background against which we can formulate, a 1990 market prediction—a powerful year-long, bull-market upleg, followed by a t!Vo,-onth period during. which there has occurred some-degree of deterioration. Where this leads us in terms of a forecast will be discussed next week. ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (12114189) 2743.60 350.01 4841.20 AWTebh A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL! No statement or expression of opinion or any other mailer herern contarned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlrecUy or Indirectly, an offer or the soliCitatIOn of an offer to buy or sen any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convemence of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our Informallon to be reliable, we rn no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereot nor of the statements made herein Any action to be laken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and rnformatlon Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporation and lis officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, pos!tlons or trades rn respect to any secunltes mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posilion may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered with the SEC as an rnvestment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and other cuslomers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS avallable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 22, 1989

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 22, 1989

Tabell's Market Letter - December 22, 1989
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'11 IBHSn..n.'S it1jJIRl 1E'1I n..1E'1I'1I1E1Rl 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 December 22, 1989 As th!!-.-e!'l XrMQroachJJ 1he—,,i!!1arveso… B.to iss.Jl.J9!9J!ca!!h.J9 be,..8st!lct . as possible, ,we think it likely that the stock market will form -8 major top at some time during the – – — upcoming year. As our readers are aware, we do not subscribe to the theory that such a top would constitute Armageddon. We outlined the reasons for this in this space two weeks ago. At some point, however, there will indeed commence a major downswing of the sort that occurs, on average, every four years. and it seems to us likely that the next such downswing will begin in 1990, Our review of the year 1989 last week tried to make two points which we regard as essential, The first point was that October – December 1987 obviously constituted a major market low, and the second, which follows logically from the first, was that the year 1989—at least through October 9—was part of a major bull market, one that at the moment is two years old. It is this time factor that seems to us crucial. If the major upswing is now 26 months old, it will be 38 months old by the end of 1990. We have identified 24 market cycles since the DJIA was first computed in 1896, and in only seven of those cases did the advancing phase last longer than 38 months. The last such phase, which occupied 61 months from July 1982 to August 1987, was the second longest on record. We think that two record-setting bull markets in a row are unlikely. The level to which the current bull market might aspire prior to reaching a 1990 top is a bit more uncertain. The maximum readable long-term objective for the Dow has. for some time now, been 3400, and we would regard this 8S an outside limit. However, it is quite possible that the market might top out before this objective is attained and, following a bear market, reach it on the next cycle. There are, of course, two ways in which the above forecast might prove to be incorrect. The first, which worries us less, is that the market will spend the entire year sailing merrily along to new peaks, destroying, in the process, all existing top formations. The second possible source of forecast error lies in the opposite direction. We need to ask ourselves whether, since we are indeed –Iooking- for-the-forma-tion-a—toPF8Ueh-a—preeess-mighlnt eJea!y-h,,-ve-begun.-with-the2-791-.41– – figure reached by the Dow on October 9 constituting the bull-market high. We cannot deny that this is a possibility. The Dow has, essentially, remained, since last summer, in the 2590-2790 range, and the upside objective of the small base following the October 13 break has already been attained. It is certainly possible that the formation in question will come to constitute a major top. There have, moreover, been distinct signs of technical deterioration presenting themselves since well before the October high was reached. What needs to be asked is whether such deterioration is sufficient to forecast a bear market of cycle proportions. For the time being, at least, our scenario is that such is not the case. As our readers are aware, we analyze, each week, the technical pattern for some 1800 stocks. Based on this analysis, we rank each issue on a I-to-5 scale, with issues ranked 1 having exceptionally attractive patterns. and issues ranked 5 showing the greatest degree of vulnerability. The number of first-tier stocks peaked on September 8 at 599 and has since dropped off to as low as 363 in early December. At the same time, the number of potentially vulnerable issues has increased from 55 to 136. However, even after three months of weakness, the number of stocks ranked lit or 2 remains twice as great as the number ranked 4 or 5. Likewise, as we have been noting in this space for some weeks, market breadth has lately exhibited significant weakness, weakness great enough to make it highly unlikely that our breadth Index can attain new peaks on the present rise. However, breadth tops (the last one was on August 8) generally show a significant lead on market peaks. Breadth action, therefore, is consistent with the forecast of such a peak being deferred until some time in 1990. Mid-1989, in technical terms, could be described by recalling the beer advertisement—It doesn't get any better than thisII. This, indeed, proved to be true, and the technical situation J unable to get better has, indeed, gotten worse. We are not sure, however. that it is bad enough to say that bear-marke mdiil'!l! xist 8 i !ime. .. E— .- . — L –.. … We expect to be occupying ourselves, dunng the early months of next year, WIth trYIng to gauge the extend of technical deterioration. in order to see whether it is necessary to modify our present stance. Absent such deterioration, we will continue to look for the bull market's last hurrah in the year ahead. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) SAP 500 (12 00) Cumulative Index (12/21189) 2696.03 345.60 4757.62 AWTebh WE WISH YOU ALL A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR! No statement or expression of OpInion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an offer or the sohcltatlon of an oHer to buy or sell any secUrity referred to or mentioned The matler IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we beheve the sources of our information to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any action to be laken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporallon and rts officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, POSitiOns or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be dlfferentlrom any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey. labell Inc, which IS registered wlthlhe SEC as an Investmenl adViSOr, may give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or If\ any other Issue Further information on any securrty mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 29, 1989

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 29, 1989

Tabell's Market Letter - December 29, 1989
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'U IEHED.D.'S IRl&;IE'U D.1E'U'UIER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 987-2300 December 29, 1989 has fOLSp!!le–yzs….!l9!w.lL.have studied the familiar seasonal tendency of the stock market to stage a -year-end rally, and ft ,bhe CUStom oftfii''-let'terto-point- out s6iiie-ortheCo,;cIi'iSioriS-' -,-,,-, that can be derived from a study of this phenomenon. Since 1897, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was first computed, a rally, however small, has begun in December and continued into the new year in 90 of 92 cases, the two exceptions occurring in the mid 1970's. The following facts about the year-end rally may be noted. 1. The year-end rally often has been of great magnitude, occasionally continuing through the entire subsequent year without a 5 correction being recorded. It has frequently continued, with only minor interruptions. for as long 8S six months into the new year. Indeed, this year's rally continued until October. In many cases, the rally continued into February, March or beyond. However. on other occasions, it has been of only a few day's duration. reaching a top extremely early. This was the case in 1988, when an extremely dynamic year-end rally peaked on January 7, the fourth trading day of the year, and an 8 1/2 correction followed. In the bear-market years of 1960, 1970, 1973, 1974, 1981, and 1982, the rally reached a peak by the first week in January, and, as noted above, the 1976 and 1977 year-end rallies did not carry into January at all, the only two in market history so to fail. 2. There has been a persistent tendency for the rally to begin early in years when the market has been up, and late in years when the market has been down. In recent upward years, 1967, 1975, 1979, 1980, and 1985 are examples, the rally commenced from early December. In recent downward years, 1962, 1966, 1969, 1977, and 1981, the rally began late in the year. 1986 was an exception, an upward year where the year-end rally started on December 31. The 1987 -88 year-end rally started on December 4, (1987 was an up year), and the 1988-89 rally saw its December low on the second day of the month. This year's rally began on December 20 at 2687.93, unusual in that 1989 was an — -; -!!-extremelystr..Qng.-y-ear – I-I 3. The important thing to watch in connection with the market action in the early months of the new year is that December low. This low has been broken in 52 years out of the past 89. However, in 30 of these 52 cases, it was broken in January and February. For example, in 1970, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1981, and 1982, the December low was broken in early January. Since 1937, it has never been broken later than mid-March with four exceptions 1965, 1974, 1981, and, of course, 1987. Thus, if the market is able to hold above its December low for the first 2 112 months of the year, chances become good that this low will not be penetrated. 4. In years when the December low has been broken, the subsequent trend has been downward two-thirds of the time. 1962, 1966, 1969, 1973, 1974, 1977, and to some degree, 1984, are typical cases. 1965, 1978, 1980, and, most recently, 1982 are exceptions. 5. The magnitude of the rally is an important clue as to the year's market trend. For example, an advance of 10 or more from the December low has been followed by an upward or neutral market in 41 of the 47 years that such an advance has occurred. An advance of less than 10 from the December low before an identifiable correction takes place has been followed by a downward market in 30 of the 42 years. In each year from 1985 to date, the year-end rally has been well in excess of 10. In 1962, 1970, 1973, and 1977, as examples, it was less than this figure. 6. The length of time for which the rally continues into the new year is important. For example, in 28 years, the rally continued into March or later. In 24 of these 28 years, the eventual trend was upward. In 1964, 1972, 1975, 1976, 1985, 1986, and 1989, the year-end rally continued into March and in 1961, 1967, 1971, and 1980, into Febru, ary. … L .. This year so far, the advance from the December low has been small, under 2. If the rally extends itself to 10 (approximately 2950) in the early new year, it would be a bullish sign. Likewise, continuation of the advance into February-March would be a positive indication. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (12/28/89) AWTebh 2742.96 352.14 4808.70 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be. directly or Indirectly, an offer orthe solicltallOn of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matler IS presented merely for the convenience of the subSCriber While we beheve the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor oj the statements made herem Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and information Delafield, Harvey. Tabellinc ,as a corporation and 115 officers or employees. may now have, or may later take, pollIons or Irades In respect to any securllles mentIOned In thiS Dr any future Issue. and such POSlllon may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield. Harvey, Tabel! Inc. which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor. may give adVice to rts Investment adVISOry and other customers IndependenUy of any statements made In thiS or In any other ISSUI) Further information 011 any secUrity mentioned herein IS available on request

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