Viewing Month: March 1989

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 03, 1989

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 03, 1989

Tabell's Market Letter - March 03, 1989
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U'&1B1ED..D..'S 1iUil& IFI IEU' D..1EU'''U'IER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 16091987-2300 March 3, 1989 , T frothy (at )est JyreceI1t, standard) ,o-,,markt. atmqsphere Villic1–chalac1epzedthe beginning of 1989 has entered, at least a temporary respite.—Th-e last post-crash high was scored on February 7. at 2347.14 on the Dow, and, by Wednesday of this week, the average had retreated 100 points from that figure. This was hardly calamitous, since 100 Dow points these days is less than 4 112, but for the technician the pullback is useful in that it provides a frame of reference. November 16, 1988 February 7, 1989 can now probably be defined as the latest of five rallying phases which, along with four intervening declines. have made up the curious market in which we have been immured since the test of the crash lows in December, 1987. If so, the table below becomes the final update of the data set which last appeared in this space some six weeks ago. Date ———– Dec 4 1987 Jan 7 1988 Jan 20 1988 Apr 12 1988 May 23 1988 Jul 5 1988 Aug 23 1988 Dct 21 1988 Nov 16 1988 Feb 7 1989 OJ Average ——- 1766.74 2051. 89 1879.14 2ll0. 08 1941.48 2158.61 1989.33 2183.50 2038.58 2347.14 This Swing ———- 0.00 16.14 -8.42 12.29 -7.99 11.18 -7.84 9.76 -6.64 15.14 C han g e From Hi From Lo 2.84 2.30 1.15 7.49 3.32 2.46 2.48 Number Of Days This Swing Cumulative oa 22 22 9 31 57 88 29 ll7 29 146 35 181 42 223 18 241 56 297 The latest rally was neither the largest nor the longest in the series, the December, 1987January, 1988risehaving,been .greater,.and .the ,JanuaryAprilcadvance 10nger. Itwashowever, – noteworthy in a single respect, its ability to forge into new high ground. Whereas past rises had ' moved only 1 or 2 percent above previous peaks before petering out, this one was able to move a full 7 112 above the October, 1988 high. This sort of move in the averages was clearly due to the large number of top-tier stocks showing action similar to that of IBM, which we analyzed at length last week, noting the stock's breakout from its 1988 trading range and attack on the overhead supply from its 1987 top. When one examines the internals of the most recent advance. a rather mixed picture presents itself. It would be nice to be able to say either that the upswing presented a distinct break with the pattern of 1988, or that it demonstrated a continuation of the deteriorating upside momentum inherent in that pattern. Unfortunately, the truth lies somewhere in between. The average spread between advancing and declining stocks for the 56 days of the advance was 122, notably better than August-October (79), but inferior to December, 1987 -January, 1988 (277) or May-July (172). The same mixed picture emerges when one looks at volume figures. Total volume improved over the levels of last summer and fall, but remained well below early-1988 levels. Upside volume constituted about half the total, just as it had during the other rallies of 1988, and downside volume on the advance remained around one-third of overall trading. There remains in our view, no clear-cut answer to the question of whether the recent upside move by many large-capitalization issues represents the start of a successful assault on the overhead supply or whether a further retreat and reaccumulation will be needed. As suggested above, breadth on the rally was not of the sort that has tended to characterize the start of major upswings. We went back this week and measured the extent of the rise in our breadth index to the highest levels reached in the first 56 days of the last ten major bull markets. This rise ranged from 19.3 points (in October, 1957 to 57 points (in August, 1982). The November, 1988-February, 1989 advance was 14 points. It is hard. therefore. not to conclude that much of the advance was a squeeze on institutional cash positions. confined. as it was, to large-cap issues. And, indeed. even among those issues. IBM. which we chose to highlight as typical just last week, was forced to retreat from its first attack on supply. It must now be considered to be in a neutral trend, one where a break below 114 would suggest a test of its 1988 lows. More bullish evidence may of course emerge and could even have begun to do so with yesterday's strength. Ability to bottom here would make the current correction the smallest one of the bull market. However. as suggested above, the portents remain mixed. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (12 00) Cumulative Index (312/89) AWTebh 2266.61 289.78 4190.54 No statement or eKpresslon of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlrectty or indirectly, an offer orthe soliCitation 01 an offer to buy or sell any secunty relerred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we believe the sources of our Information 10 be reliable, we In no way represent Of guarantee the accuracy thereol nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Informallon Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , as a corporallon and Its officers or employees, may now have, Of may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to any secUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posrtlon may be different from any views nowor hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment advisor, may give adVice to liS Investment adVisory and other customers Independently of any statements made In thIS or In any other ISsue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 10, 1989

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 10, 1989

Tabell's Market Letter - March 10, 1989
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\ TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 March 10, 1989 Two weeks ago, we devoted this space to an analysis of the chart of IBM, suggesting it was a fairly typicaT-current-pattern -We noted th8titssa1ient-features-were-a—1987top-.aA-sharp declin-e – -,,- . …- -(surprise!), and a subsequent base formation4 some not-uncommon variations on that theme Five other charts, also of Dow stocks, may illustrate 50 o .JO Ii' MINNESOTA lUNING. I'AIIUFACTURIHG 10 SEARS ROEBUCK l co 2 POINT The above two charts, Minnesota Mining at left and Sears, Roebuck at right, (all charts shown are on a two-point unit basis) feature, as did IBM, a 1987 top and a subsequent base. Both have broken out of that base. However the main difference in the two patterns, we think, is that the width of 3M's base in relation to its top is considerably greater than Sears'. The latter, so far, has been the better-performing stock having moved ahead 78 from its 1987 low, vis-a-vis a 54 move for 3M and a 46 move for the Dow. It is, however, appropriate to question whether the stock will be able to penetrate the heavy overhead supply between 50 and 58 without broadening its pattern further. Indeed, after reaching a high at 46 114 on November 3, Sears backed off and failed to participate in the recent rally. Minnesota Mining, by contrast, possesses a base wide enough to suggest that penetration of the overhead supply may be easier, even though it, indeed, has backed off from a peak just under 70. typi'cTahlecmolnlfjiogruitrya-tioofn-teinchnoniel!o.rIapantottehrensr,oodflliytsexvta\lrbiaitti'ontsh, ianSd;–O;IIIIIIIIIIIIIIII—1 it is our opinion that one of the most important points for I/o present-day analysis is the relationship of the base to \01- There exist numerous other variations. Bethlehem Steel, at /0 supply 11111111111111111prirgehvito, uiss oaverarhrietayd in that it has bettered its 1987 peak. It, however, has older supply to contend with, going back to the wo 1970's. (Its high was in 1976.) Nonetheless, the extent of its base suggests it may be embarking upon an upside move that BETHlEHEM mEl (ORP 2 POINT will multiple market cycles. Chevron, shown at left, displays certain aspects of the conventional pattern—a 1987 top followed by a base formation occupying late 1987 and all of 1988. It, however, along with most oil stocks, exhibits another important feature, a major base pattern traced out during the 1981-1986 period. The subsequent retracement constituted, for this stock. not so much a CIIEYROII Z POINT bear market as a pullback to a support level, and the existence of the older base suggests the possibility of long-term objectives higher than those indicated by the 1988 base pattern. A pattern like that of Goodyear, at right, is the rarest of the variations shown, although certainly not unique. The stock's first attack on the overhead supply at 66-76 turned out a total failure, and an important top than formed at 66-56, raising the possibility that the stock's 1987 low may be tested. From a technician's pOint of view. this sort of analysis is an obvious necessity in 2 POINT attempting to ascertain the relative merits of individual stocks and industry groups at today's prices. It also will be helpful, we think, in determining the course of the market. Most issues, so far, have been less than successful at their initial attempts to penetrate the 1987 overhead supply. Were many stocks to enter a pullback phase in unison. intermediate-scale market weakness might well be the result. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (3/9/89) AWTebh 2278.39 292.14 4248.64 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. No statement or expreSSion 01 opinion or any other matter herein contained IS,m IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indlreclly, an offer or the soilcltalion of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we beheve the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own investigation and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc ,as a corporaliOn and liS officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to any seCUrities mentJoned In thiS or any future Issue, and such poSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey. Tabellinc , which IS registered with the SEC as an Investment adVISor, may give adVice to ItS Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any seCUrity menliOned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 17, 1989

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 17, 1989

Tabell's Market Letter - March 17, 1989
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 987-2300 March 17, 1989 – There—-musfalays be—so -Ule'ffnancIihPress-w6uldhave-o..us'b-e1iev–.an -explanation-of-why— ..- the stock market did what it did on any given day. St. Patrick's Day, 1989, for example, will be headlined as the day the market fell out of bed in response to a 1 rise in producer prices. Any mention by us technical folk of such things as a high being tested or a short-term overbought condition will be shouted down by the conventional wisdom. In any CRse, there has emerged. over the past few weeks. a new, or not-so-new. explanation for stock-market behavior which can take its place along with interest rates, economic statistics, and the trade deficit. That explanation is program trading. A couple of weeks ago, The Wall Street Journal headed a story, They're back! Program Traders Regaining Stock Market Clout. The article did note that such activity was a shadow of what it had been in pre-crash days, but went to quote un-named traders as saying that the February 24 fall reminded them of pre-crash days. It should not have done so. Memories are short, and, indeed, we, ourselves. were jolted when, reviewing what we had written in early 1987. we read our own description of the market of January 23 in that year. The Dow, we said. moved over a IOO-point range within an hour, and volume reached a record 302 million shares. Most readers will have seen the chart. produced by an on-line computer service. which shows the index up 64 points just before 2 o'clock, down 50 points a hour later, up 10 points and then, finally. down 44 points. 11 Those were the days when men were men and program trading was program trading. As a background for our discussion of that market, we referred to a study of market volatility and subsequent price behavior, and we updated that study on April 10, 1987. The study examined all market days between 1974 and late 1986 on which the spread between intra-day high -We–a-n.d -i-n-t raal-sdca yoVIeorweanfst hseorDtJ I0A( vwoaisa tm1 Io1riey ht haadn f3oreosf htahdeowcleoas-ea.-h,Oigt hmaadrkbeetens 7.22 on ix months January 23.) later oc.n '-'-''— -I 111 of 120 occasions, i.e., 92.5, of the time. This was despite the fact that, taking all of the 3000-plus days in the 1974-1986 period, a six-month rise had occurred only 63.6 of the time. Needless to say, over the two years since that time, we have been keeping an eye on this particular statistic. There have occurred, not surprisingly, 67 more days where the high-low spread has exceeded 3. Of these, eight were part of a string in April, 1987, six of which pre-dated October 19, 1987 by just over six months, and two of which did not. These two figures were coupled with a string of eleven high-volatility days occurring at various points between May, 1987 and October 16. A total of thirteen signals, therefore, were spectacularly erroneous. However, for any day starting with October 19, it is a fact that the market has been higher after a six-month interval. Forty-five such days produced a 3-or-greater spread. The record for the indicator, therefore, now stands at 165 correct calls and 22 wrong ones. To return to our discussion of volatility, however, the relevant fact is that the last time a 3 spread between the Dow's intra-day high and low occurred was on May 31, 1988. Indeed, since that time, in 201 trading days, there have been only 36 in which the spread has exceeded 2. Only seven of these have taken place in 1989. By contrast. we have, of late, been setting records for lack of volatility. Just a week ago, on March 9, the 23.75-point spread between the Dow high of 2306.61 and the low of 2282.86 constituted only 1.04 of the close. There are only 63 lower figures in a 3722-day history. A spread of under 1 occurred on January 16, one of only 33 such cases in fourteen-plus years, and the 1988 pre-Christmas holiday figure of 0.87 was the fifth lowest instance in the record. 1t is certainly quite proper to worry about a resurgence of the sort of market conditions which preceded the October, 1987 crash, but we are demonstrably a long way from anything resembling that sort of environment at the moment. ANTHONY W. TARELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (3/16/89) 2295.54 292.95 4289.53 AWTebh No statement or eKpreSSlon 01 opInion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlreC1ly or Indlreclfy, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any secunty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we believe the sources 01 our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy Ihereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own investigation and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poSllions or trades In respeC1to any seCUrities mentIOned In thiS or any future Issue, and such POSition may be different from any views now or hereatler expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investmenl advlso!)' and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 23, 1989

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 23, 1989

Tabell's Market Letter - March 23, 1989
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 987-2300 March 23, 1989 We noted in last week's letter the fact that St. Patrick's Day, 198q . will be headlined — as theoday…. the ma-rket–fell–out-…ofbed-in–responseto-a….f–'rise in–producer -prices .-The'fall. – —'–I actually, had just begun by the time we went to press at noon. At the end of the day, the Dow had been trimmed by 48 points, this decline of 2.08 having been only twice exceeded since April, 1988. The slide continued with a 33-point fall in Monday's trading, and, after a mild recovery which fizzled out late in the day on Tuesday, Wednesday saw yet lower prices. Since just about the entire world is explaining the decline in terms of the economy, let us stick to our knitting and look at it from the perspective of the market technician. We have, at the moment, a number of benchmarks. The first is the 1987-89 bull-market high of 2347.14, attained on February 7. Following attainment of that peak, the Dow dropped a bit over 100 points in the next three weeks, declining 4.44 to a low of 2243.04 on March L The next two weeks were spent retracing the bulk of the ground lost, and, by March 16, the average was back at 2340.71, less than seven points under its high. That rise was then aborted by Friday's action. Interestingly. without any reference whatever to the Producer Price Index, we can look at all this as tediously conventional technical action. A long run-up (November 16, 1987-February 7) is interrupted by a pullback (February 7-March I). A test of the previous high ensues (March 1 to March 16), fails, and the pullback low is then tested (March 16 to date). It is also possible, totally without reference to extraneous events, to put all of this into a larger context. We have noted repeatedly here that the four short-term corrections which punctuated the upswing of 1988 ranged in extent from 6.64 to 8.42. We have also expressed our belief that, despite the strength of the November-February upswing, the market's basic characteristics were probably still those of 1988. If we are correct In this assumption, it would be plausible for the 4 1/2 correction to be extended to something approximately in the 6-8 range. Such a decline would produce a downside target in the vicinity of 2205-2160. There is nothing illogical about such a target. The average's October 21 high (at the top of the upswing preceding this one) was 2183.50. The July 5 peak was 2158.61. Thus any further —–extensionof th-e(je()linetb thehigh' 21 OO's -wouldsiffiPlY proaueearetFeat -toesta1ilisheo support–L'-I levels. If this is to occur, it could do so over the fairly short term. Thirty trading days through yesterday have elapsed since the February 7 high, and the longest of the 1988 declines lasted for 35 daysw We have, moreover, at the moment, the familiar technical situation where a decline, if it is to occur, is best gotten over with quickly without further broadening of the potential top. Recent action can be viewed from yet another purely technical perspective, that of an attack on overhead supply. We have repeatedly expressed our view that the existence of such supply is the most important technical factor in today's stock-market environment, both in terms of the general market level and the action of individual stocks. In 1987, the Dow, as late as the end of May, was at 2215.87, just a bit under today's level. Over just three months, it advanced more than 500 points, and within another three months had completed the formation of a top and undergone the ensuing freefall of the October crash. The most significant technical aspect of all this is the extent of the distributional patterns—Iater to become overhead supply—that were completed within that short six-month timeframe. As the average reached the mid 2300's in early February, many stocks were beginning to approach that supply for the first time. What has been fascinating to us as we have watched individual patterns unfold is the extent to which initial attempts at penetration of the supply have resulted in noticeable pullbacks. This has occurred even when the supply areas seemed insignificant. ,Just four weeks ago we published a chart of IBM in this space, noting that it had broken out of its 1988 base and was making its first attempt on the supply from its 1987 top. The immediate aftermath was a retreat deep into the bottom of the base formation. This sort of thing, in somewhat less dramatic form, has been repeated in a number of cases. Thus, despite last week's renewed outbreak of the market's inflation-cum-interest-rate obsession, technical action so far has been perfectly normal .. A modestextension 9f trye decline would be equally normal and not at all improbable. Beyond that, the market's further action during 1989 will depend on the success of renewed attempts to penetrate the supply overhanging from the frenzied trading of summer, 1987. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) 2263.75 S & P 500 (1200) 290.94 Cumulative Index (3/22/89) 4201.09 AWTebh No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlrectlyor mdlrectly, an offeror the solicllatlon of an offarto buy or sell any secunty referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presenled merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy Ihereol nor althe statements made herein Any action to be laken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own lIlves!lgatlon and mforma\lon Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporatIOn and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may laler take pOSitions or trades In respect to any secunbes mentioned In Ihls or any future Issue, and such posilion may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its tnvestment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or m any other ISSue Further Information on any security mentioned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 31, 1989

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 31, 1989

Tabell's Market Letter - March 31, 1989
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—————————————————– – – – – — — —- – – – TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 987-2300 – —- – – —-00– 'C' – –,-.-. —–.,…,-..,-.March31;!989 -, . – We made the assertion in last wee'k's letter that recent market action could be explained in fairly conventional technical terms. We noted that, on February 7, the Dow had closed at 2347.14. This was the highest figure it had attained in the post-crash era—since October 19, 1987 — constituting a 35 advance from that 17-month-old low. From a shorter-term point of view, it was the culmination of a 56-day, 15.1 rise that had been going on, without substantial interruption (the largest correction was less than 2), since November 16, 1988. Subsequently, a decline of slightly over 100 points took the average down 4.44 to a low on March I, and a rally in early March brought it back to within seven points of its peak on March 16. This test of the high was unsuccessful. and Qur comment last week was that a rather ordinary test of the lows was taking place. This test proved interesting, at least from a numerological point of view. The Dow wound up closing last Friday at 2243.04, exactly the same level, to the penny, as the previous Iowan March 1. The index's intra-day low, 2234.46. attained on Monday. was 36/100 of a point below the comparable March figure. Textbooks on technical analysIs write about tests of this nature. That bottom, If It was one, hardly featured melodramatic action. Monday's volume was an anemlC 113 mIllion shares, the lowest level of 1989 so far. Indeed, since January, 1987, lower volume had occurred on only fourteen trading days. Nine of those fourteen. moreover. had been associated with Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. We have, therefore, now spent almost two months. 36 trading days to be precise. in a rather restricted 100-point trading range. The obvious question is whether this range constitutes a distnbuhonal tap or a simple reaccumulation area in preparation for a further advance. We confess that we lean, without terribly firm conviction. toward the former theory and continue to think that the twice-tested March low will be broken. Following this bad news, we hasten to proclaIm the good tidings that such an interpretation, if correct, is hardly likely to produce – -,-disasferThe-ino-st-plausil5led6wnsi(reo15jecfive fortb-ellow appears to 0.,2'170; ana we notedlas-t week that. (1) a correction to that level would be about in line with the normal corrective phases which characterized 1988, and (2) that massive support was present in the high 2100's. We lean toward this short-term-top interpretation largely because of the desultory nature of this recovery. including the volume figures referred to above. During the week, moreover. our breadth index moved to a new low, and has recovered very little since. We think. therefore. that further weakness in the averages remains plausible. The patterns for averages other than the Dow differ from it only in degree. The more broadly based S & P 500 also produced a successful test of its low this week and could move back to a support level comparable to that of the Dow. At present, a downside objective of Just under 280, versus a current level around 294, is possible. The Dow Transports, in many ways, appear to be leading the Industrials. It must first be noted that the longer-term rise for this average, 65 from its December, 1987 low, is almost tWIce as great as that of the DJIA. Indeed, the Transports are, one of the few averages, on this side of the Pacific Ocean at least, to have recovered all of the ground lost durmg the crash. The August, 1987 high was 1091.41, and on February 7, they had reached 1087.97. More recently, a top formatIOn has been completed, and, indeed, the downside objective of that top has already just about been attained at recent lows around 1000. Thursday's and Fnday's takeover-fueled strength is unlikely to lead to immediate new highs, but is probably the start of a new base formation which could presage such highs. The action of the Utilities, unsurprisingly, represents the opposite extreme. The rise of the DJUA from its crash lows has been only 18. A high above the 190 level was just recently attained for the third time in the past year and a half, and, like the Industrials, the Utility index has recently been confined within a fairly narrow trading range. in this case between 191 and 182. Decisive penetration of this range on the downside could suggest a fairly significant retracement. perhaps as much as half of the rise since the 1987 low of 160. It is worthy of note, though, that this range has been able to hold so far in the face of heavy pressure from the bond market. All of this. of course, fits within the context of what we conceive to be the longer-term pattern. It has been our view that the market cycle which began in October, 1987 would ultimately come to constitute an accumulation area for a longer-range advance. Given this assumption, it would be normal to expect the rising phase of the cycle to be relatively modest in extent. ThIS largely has been the case—Iess so with the Transports and to a fault in the case of the Utilities. It remains our view that this reaccumulation pattern is likely to continue. ANTHONY W. TARELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) 2289.77 S & P 500 (1200) 294.24 Cumulative Index (3/30/89) 4212.00 AWTebh No statement or ex pression of oplmon or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any secunty referred to or menlloned The matler IS presented merely for the convemence of the subsCriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor ot the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc ,as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later taKe, poSitions or trades In respect to any secuntles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thIS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered With the SEC asan Investment adVISor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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