, – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – — TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08!540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMEAICAN STOCK EXCHANGE August 5, 1983 Judging by recent stock market comment in the financial press, an amazing -..,—.phenomenon- has' justcometothe-attentionof –he'-investment-communitY-'llt-la!'-g.e-.-1'hatf phenomenon is the fact that the Dow-Jones Industrial Average has held, ever since late last April, in a trading range bounded by, roughly, 1180 and 1250. This manifestation can hardly come as fresh news to readers of this letter. We have, in this space, been tracing the development of this trading range, as the pattern built up, ever since mid-June. We do not lay claim, thereby, to any special acuity. It is, simply, that we are old-fashioned technicians, and it is the function of such people to keep charts, watch those charts and try to draw meaningful conclusions from patterns as they unfold. What we have here is a probable (Even after Thursday's action, the word is appropriate) top formation. It may be helpful to trace the formation of this particular cloud on the investment horizon. The Dow moved above 1180 for the first time in its history on April 18th. On May 6th, at 1232.59, it posted what was to be the first of a series of approximately equal tops. By May 20th, it had declined to 1190.02, thus defining the lower limit of the trading range. This level was infinitesimally penetrated on June 8th at 1185.50, and, just over a week later, a modest new high, the actual high to date, was scored at 1248. 30. There was, however, no follow-through to this move, and the market promptly retreated again into the by-now-well-defined trading range. By July 18th, it was back at 1189.90. The subsequent rally was so obvious a test of the low that it should perhaps have aroused suspicion. It did not, honestly, arouse ours, and we were somewhat lyrical about it – -in-thiB.-.space-illl–.lul;y-22nd–Itcontinuednlythrough.J.uly 2Bthwjth..lLcJose at 1243. 69 ,!- it is now obvious that this was as much a test of the top of the trading range as mid-July was of the low. The Average declined sharply in five consecutive sessions and, on August 2nd, found itself again at 1188.00, back around the 1180 level for the fourth time. We referred to ourselves above as old-fashioned technicians, which means that there was a time, in our youth, when absolutely nobody, with the exception of a few freaks, would have been aware of any of the foregoing or, if they were, would have believed it had any significance. Times have changed. There is a growing public awareness of the general principles of technical analysis, and among those principles is the one that says that a lateral trading range, followed by a downside breakout from that range, presages lower prices. Thus, the recent widespread comment on the trading range, even to the point of crowding out of the news columns the familiar circular references to interest rates. This growing awareness, however, has brought its own problems. Since the whole world has become aware of the existence of such phenomena as distributional tops, false breakouts have proliferated. Thus, Thursday's penetration of 1180 and the negative implications of that penetration have been widely heralded. Shortly, market weakness may even reach the 11 p. m. network news—a good latter-day indication of a mature trend. The downside breakout, therefore, is difficult to analyze. Another general prinCiple is, perhaps, useful in this connection. It is that a widely expected move will either fail to materialize or will extend farther than most people expect. On the face of it, the trading range has downside implications of, at least, -intermediate scaleimportance , with objectives in the range of 1100-1050. If the breakout turns out to be real, rather than the sort of publically-induced phenomenon discussed above, a broad decline to these levels, perhaps one sufficient to produce a full-scale selling climax, appears to be a real possibility. AWTjt Dow Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m. ) 1181. 29 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 161. 67 Cumulative Index (8/3/83) 1944.40 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No stotement or exprcnlOn of opinion or any other motter herem contained IS, or I 10 be deemed 10 be, dIrectly or Indirectly, on offer or Ihe 50!1I;llollon of on offer 10 bvy or sell any security referred to or mentIoned The moiler ,s presenled merely for the converlence of the subscriber Whl!e we believe Ihe sou'ces of our information to be reliable, we ,n no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude nereln Any action to be token by the subscriber should be based on hiS own ,veSl'9otlon and information Janney Monlgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporal lon, and liS offICers or employees, may now have, Of may laler toke, positions or trades In respect to any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thl or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With thc SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to liS Investment odvlsory ond othel customers Independently of any statements mode In Iha or In any other Issue Further IIlfarmatlon on any security mentioned herein IS available on mquest

———————————————————————— —;.. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANoe, INC. MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE August 12, 1983 Happy Birthday Bull Market, Happy Birthday to you. – We could not resist the above. It is precisely one year ago-today that the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed at what now seems like an incredible level of 776.92. Today it is 51 higher than that level, and, at its peak two months ago, it was 60 higher. It has, withall, been one of the stock market's better years. It is too bad that, on its birthday, the bull market finds itself suffering from a mild indisposition. We have been commenting on the amazing market story, as it unfolded, in the last 52 issues of this letter. Very early on. a number of things became obvious. It became apparent. for example. almost at the outset. that the stock market of 1982 and 1983 was not playing by the rules of the 1970's. As the market rise paused. first in November and then in January. many analysts found themselves becom- ing nervous and proclaiming that the market was in need of a correction. No such correction. of course, ever materialized. What we have been doing in this space for a year. essentially. is pointing out the differences between this particular bull market and bull markets of the recent past. The first major contrast became Obvious early this year. For 17 long years cycle upswings had tended to peak around the lOOO-plus level on the Dow. Beginning in February. the average began scoring newall-time highs. and it became evident. not only that we were in a conventional cycle bull market. but in a new super-cycle environment. Once this was Obvious. further analysis was much like feeling one's way in the dark. The rules had clearly changed. but it was not immediately apparent precisely what the new rules were. As an aid in solving this dilemma. we began looking further back in to history — at the bull markets of the 1950's and early 1960's. One characteristic of these markets was that each moved, at its high. into significant new high territory. just as the present one has done. Another characteristic was that they tended to proceed to their conclusion with little in the way of interim correction. We I–,,-f-.fl.ave-been–speculatin.g for some time t b eL.a….similar-Pattern mi gbt emerge-in…the-curr.e.nLmar.k.et……..especially When it failed to show significant signs of technical deterioration at the November and January consolidations. Based on recent action. however. it seems that such might not be the case. A characteristic of recent cycle upswings has been their interruption by relatively deep intermediate-scale corrections. The last previous bull market. which ran from February 28, 1978 to April 27, 1981. is a caSe in point. It was interrupted by no fewer than three sharp and rather nasty declines. c!he Halloween Massacre in the fall of 1978. a 13.5 decline. a similar interruption of 11. 25 in November. 1979. and the Silver-Thursday debacle of March-April. 1980 which produced a 16 drop. Interestingly enough, two of these interruptions, 1978 and 1980, came to an end in full-scale selling climaxes. Even more interesting. the actual bear-market low in February. 1978 went largely unanticipated and unrecognized. simply because it never produced such a climax. It is perhaps not coincidental that the low whose birthday we are today celebrating also failed to produce such a climax — record upside action. yes, but upside action not preceeded by a downside washout. It seems to us this is all worth keeping in mind in the present environment where. as we noted last week. we have just broken out of a rather substantial intermediate-term top with, as we then noted. downside objectives in the 1100-1050 range. Were the latter objective to be reached it would be a correction of just under 16. and it could wind up looking suspiciously similar to the three interruptions in the last bull market mentioned above. It could even wind up with a conventional seIling climax. The last two major bottoms have demonstrated that the institutional investors who dominate today's market, unlike the individual investors of the past. are disinclined to engage in panic selling after a long decline. 1978 and 1980 would suggest that they are more likely to indulge in such behavior when they are in the position of having comfortably established profits which they wish to protect. Certainly they are in that position today. We would not be surprised; thet'eforeto see the current weakness extend itself over the relatively short term and would be equally unsurprised bY-'icceler..tin-g-aownside–action and a typical selling-climax termination, probably producing all-time record volume. It would be most plausible for this to emerge in the 1100-1050 range. although it might emerge at a slightly higher level. Such a climax would undoubtedly be accompanied by the usual predictions of the end of the world, focusing on the current ostensible concern — interest rates. It would. of course. provide the best buying opportunity since last August. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (8/11/83) 1180.89 161. 96 1939.73 No stotement or exprenlon of opHllon or any olher moiler herein contained IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, on offer or the soilt.totlon of on offer to buy Of sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter 1 preented merely for the convenience of the substflber While we believe the sources of our Information 10 be rehoble, we m no way represent or guaronlee the occuray thereof nor of the lolemen!s mude herem Any actiO to' be token bV the s'Jbscriber should be based on his own mvestlge!lon and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may lotcr toke, positions or trades In respect to any secufltles mentioned In thiS or ony fulure Issue, and such position mey be different from any views now or hereafter expressed m thiS or ony olher luue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whICh IS registered With the SEC as on mvestment adVIsor, may gIVe adVice to Its mveslment adVISory and other ar.;tomers mdependently of any stotements mode In thiS or tn any other Issue Further Information on any secuflty menlloned herein IS aVailable on request —————————- — .- –

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAb, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY OB540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGe August 19, 1983 .,.,. – – – Rear.2..f-hisdet.t-may.-haY,eetted,a,Jljghl!,Jpg.e in. our market attitude over the past two weeks, and it is perhaps well, at this stage,to try to clarify thatraftit-uae – orclarily.,t. as much as possible in a market environment which, when examined closely, tends to defy simple explanation. Two weeks ago we commented on the fact that the Dow-Jones Industrial Average had broken below the 1180 level, although,on Thursday, August 4 and Friday, August 5, it managed to remam above that level on a closing basis. The decisive break came the following Monday when the average closed at 1163.06 which. interestingly, happens to be the closing low to date. We commented further on the occurrence last week, voicing the thought that, if a true downside breakout had occurred, significantly lower prices were a possibility and that the decline leading to those lower prIces might well produce a selling climax of notable proportions. The theory behind this suggestion was based on the fact that intermediate-term declines ending in selling climaxes were features of the early stages of the last bull market, 1978-1981. and that no real selling climax had occurred at the August 12 bottom a year ago. This particular scenario, we hasten to admit, is definitely speculative, and it remains to be seen whether or not it will hold good. The reason we were and are concerned with the breakdown from 1180 is that we are, as we have noted in the past, old-fashioned technicians. We were learning to analyze stock-market behavior back in the days when computers were machines that remained in the back office, serious quantitative analysis of stock-price data was unheard of, and a random walk was something found in an English garden. Back in those simIle days we dutifully traced the movement of stock prices on hand-drawn charts and paid serious attention to the formation Ir those charts of long lateral trading ranges. We were instructed by the sages that, when a stock or average broke out of such a lateral trading range on the downside, the range then became known as a distrIbutional top and was strongly indicative of a further downward move. The technical community likes to think it has become more sophisticated of late, and there is little question that! it has. One writer pointed out that, following the widely-heralded break of 1180, the sky has not fallen. This is indeed true, but it has not risen a heck of a whole lot either. Since the Dow -reacrreu,tsl!10'S1n-g4ow-on….A.ugust8;-fiv..f..;.the.fle.t…seven….tJ.adingsessionsw.ereJisJIlg ones. B,.yc;-;-;- Wednesday, the Dow had once more risen above 1200 to close at 1206.50. Breadth and volume statistics, however, were not tremendoUSly eltCiting. Volume remained mostly in the 70-80 million share range, the low end of the recent spectrum, and the most dynamic up day, Monday, August 15, produced only 1107 advancing stocks. A greater number of issues declined on no fewer than seven occasions when the market was receding in late July and early August. In the simple days referred to above, this used to be known as a pullback into overhead supply. It may well have ended with Thursday's 14-point decline. Having said all of the above we do not wish to give the impression that we have turned, suddenly, into rampant bears. The lUXUry of being able to be either super-bearish or super-bullish on the market as a whole is one that, unfortunately, has come to be denied us as markets have become more and more complex. A tremendous diversity among individual stock patterns has been a growing phenomenon, and such diversity, on a short-term basis at least, seems to us to be as great at this moment as it has ever been. After the market rise leveled last May, a great many issues began to break out of individual distributional tops of fairly significant proportions. That process continued right through last week. However, recent inspection of 2000 individual chart patterns shows that the downside objectives of many of these tops have been reached. In a fairly significant minority of those cases signifcant short-term bases have been formed. A still smaller subset of this select group has posted upside breakouts from those bases, and an even smaller elite has managed to move out of those bases to new highs. Meanwhile, while all this was going on, a goodly number of issues formed nothing resembling a top at all and continued in minor uptrends. Almost all of the above formations, it must again be emphasized, took place within the context of established major uptrends which are still intact. The phrase, rotating correction, is a much abused one, but it is indeed descriptive of what has recently been going on. While the Dow was, on August 8th, off only 6.8 from its-peak, an analysis of some 1600 representative issues shows that, as of Wednesday, they were, on average) sellrng for some 15 below their six-month highs.' In other words, a good deal of correction was taking place .while the averages were, until recently, moving sideways. The above should make it clear that we retain a positive position regarding the cycle bull market for reasons abundantly documented in this space over the past six months. We are not totally sure, however, that individual patterns, diverse as they are, do not leave room for more weakness in the widely followed averages on a short-term basis. We therefore, continue to hold to the old-fashioned belief that the break below 1180 does possess significance for the intermediate term, and we expect to retain this belief until solld market evidence forces us to abandon it. AWT rs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1195.12 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 163.64 Cumulative Index (8/18/83) 1967.54 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAC, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANOE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE August 26, 1983 We discussed at some length last week the fact that we considered the break below the 1180 level on the Dow, which took place in trading of August 4-8, to be sigtlificant from a technical ,- – pomt' of VlewWe also noteutnat'we 'contmuetl tofeerlhis-way despite' thefact thaI ,immeQlr'a't-ely-'–I after breakmg down and reaching an hourly low of 1158.85 at 2 p. m. on August 9, the market rallied fairly sharply and the low then achieved has held for 2! weeks to date. In that intervening 2! weeks there has. It seems to us. been less and less scare talk about interest rates and more and more confidence expressed about the resumption of the bull market later on this year. Implicit in this new view, it seems to UE', is that in the intervening period prices are unlikely to move much lower. By contrast, we see nothing in what has taken place during August, 1983 to make us wildly sanguine about the short-term outlook. We categorized this action last week as a typical rally into overhead supply, and we see no reason to alter this view. This can perhaps be clarified by the chart below, a shorter-term device than those generally used in this letter, which traces hourly chanees in the Dow-Jones Industrials during August, together with hourly volume figures. DOw ONE.S VI / /v ; d The chart clearly shows the breakdown which took place in the early part of the montn ana the subsequent rally from mid-day August 9 to a 2 p.m. high of 1202!iS-on AUgUst-rs-ri is action since then that has been particularly desultory. There have been three separate downthrusts, the last one of WhICh culminated in the lowest bottom of the three yesterday. It is the volume trend on those three downthrusts that is of interest. On each one, volume decreased as prices moved lower, generally tending to reach its lowest point, somewhere about 5-7 million shares of hourly volume, at the low point. Contrary to generally accepted theory, this is not bullish action. It suggests, rather, that lower prices were unable to generate demand and that selling temporarily ran out of steam. It is in contradIction to the action of August 5-9, when lower levels generated increasing volume which carried over at least into the early part of the subsequent upside move. This lack of demand suggests to us that the August 9 low is likely to be'tested and pmetrated, thus confimmg the SIgnificance of the break from 1180. As noted over the past two weeks, this break suggests downside objectives in the 1100-1050 range. At around that level, the sort of demand necessary to produce a meaningful turn might be generated. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P ComposIte (1200 p.m.) c 11muJ stive J pdex (8 (25 (83) ANTHONY W. TABELL 1185.67 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL 160.49 1 94L. .27L No slatemenl or expressIon of op'nion or any ather maNer hereIn contolned IS, or,s '0 be deemed 10 be, directly or IndIrectly, on offer or Ihe solICItatIon of on offer to buy or sell any security referred 10 or menlloned The molter IS presented merely for the convenIenCE of the subscnber While we belIeve the sources of ovr Informa Iton 10 be reliable, we In no way represenl or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any OClian 10 be token by Ihe subscflber should be based on h,s own InvestigatIon and Informallon Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, as a corporatIon, and Its offIcers or employees, may now have, or may taler toke, poSItions or trodes In respect to any securilles menhoned In thIS or any future Issue, and such pos,hon may be d,fferent from any v,ews now or hereafter expressed In ThIS or any olher Issue Jonney Montgomery 5011, tnc , which 15 registered WIth the SEC as on ,nvestment adVIsor, may gIve adVice to ,Is ,vestment adVISOry and othel customers Independently of any statements made In th,s or ' any OTher lSue Furlher information on any security menlloned heretn IS available on request

'V'&\IBUER..R..' S IiUiI&\R &t1E'V' LIE'V''V'IER 909 STATE ROAO, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08S40 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCk EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( EXCHANGE .-…,.-..,,….,'.,.,,.-….,….,…..,,..,,,….,,,…,,,…,…..,,-s;ept;;e,m;ber2…;;.;3.,…–.'-',..,.,,..,–,,.,-I Contrary to popular belief. the easiest market to analyze is o,e ;;'hich is moving strongly and obviously in one direction or another. either up or down. The fundamental principle of technical analysis is that a trend once established should be presumed to remain in force un less overwhelming evidence refuting that presumption presents itself. Thus. when faced with an obvious bull market. the analyst. when asked for a forecast. should have a Strong predispo sition toward calling. simply. for more of the same. We were ourselves, able to follow this proscription between late August and this summer. The existence of bull-market conditions became apparent in late August, 1982 and, once this had taken place. it became almost axiomatic that the upswing was likely to continue without much in the way of interruption. To be sure. minor reactions took place in October and December. but they totally failed to provide the sort of convincing reversal evidence which should have been necessary to override the technician'S predisposition toward a trend continuance. Life is hard. and periods such as August. 1982-June. 1983. unfortunately. constitute a relatively small portion of the totality of stockmarket history. Since reaching its effective high in mid-May. the market has obviously lost a major portion of the extraordinary momentum which it had retained until that time. By early this month. after moving above 1180 for the first time on April 18. it had held for almost four months in a range bounded by that level and the June 16 high of 1248.30. We considered this loss of momentum sufficient evidence to override our normal predilection toward doubting the probability of any correction of major . I—importance —- I We felt. moreover. that the possibility of an intermediate-term-correction became even more real when the Dow broke significantly below 1180 on August 8. reaching 1163.06. That level, however, has turned out to be the low to date. Over the three weeks since it has occurred, we have tried to convey the fact that we remained unimpressed with the vigor of the rally and looked for that low to be tested and probably penetrated. In Wednesday's trading a new complexity entered the picture. with a 20-point rally to 1216.16. a five-week high. Breadth was unimpressive. volume not all it should be. and half of the gain was retraced in Thursday's trading, but it nonetheless produced more vigor than might have been expected at this stage. The possibility. at the moment nothing more than a possibility. now exists of a full-scale move deep into the overhead supply at 1180-1248, perhaps even testing the upper part of this supply. This would raise the further prospect of a move out of the entire trading range and a resumption of the bull market. We remain disinclined to operate on this premise. The Dow has now held a trading range of just over 7 for 97 days. and rigorous analysis of past periods when something similar has occurred produces indecisive results. There have been 60 similar instances since 1926. most of them concentrated in more recent history. The ones we are concerned with. of course, are those which have occurred after sharp market rises. Such ranges have. in the past, often been simply interruptions in an ongoing bull market. They have, however, with almost equal frequency, been precursors of either intermediate-term-corrections or major tops. We do not believe at this stage (although we have some temerity about the large number of people who share our belief) that the latter is the caSe. Our faith in the ultimate viability of the bull market, shortly after its first birthday, remains unchallenged. However, in difficult-to-analyze periods such as the present one. the intermediate-correction possibility remains with us. We are not yet ready to discard it. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY, TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1213.01 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 164.59 Cumulative Index (9/1/83) 1968.55 No stotement or flxpreu,on of op'nion or any other motter here'n contolned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or Ihe SOliCitation of an offer 10 buy or sell any security referred It or mentIoned The motler IS presented merely for the conve,en of the !Ub!Cflber While Ne believe the lources of our In/armotlon 10 be relloble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy Ihreof nor of Ihe s!olemenl mude herein Any adlon to be toen by the subSCriber should be bosed on hiS own InveSligotlon and InfOrmotlon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, ond Its offiCers or employees, may now have, or mol' later lokI.', POSitionS Of trodes In retpect 10 any seCUflllel mel1tloned In Ihls or any future Issue, ond such pOSitIOn may be different from ony views now or hereafter epressed In Iha or any ather Issue. Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to 115 Investment adVISory and othel customers Independelllly of any statements mode In thiS or In any other luue Further Information on any seomly mentioned herem IS aVQlloble on request

— – – – – ; ; – – – – – – – ; – – – – – – – – – – / – — — – – – – – – – – – – TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY OB!540 DIVISION OF' MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCK EXCHANGe, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK ECCJ.jANOe September 9, 1983 Curiouser and,curiouser, was the remark of Lewis Carroll's Alice upon arriving in the wonde.rland wher-e ,eV9r.y.thin.gw.as.-t-ur-ned ron–end.. – It.4s .a….ema-kapplicable.-to–t..,he …cup-rent-. stock mar-ket-.—ln earlY'—I August, the Dow flirted for some days with the low around 1180 which-it had-been-able tohold since April. It broke that low on August 8th but, within a week, had moved back above it. This week the Dow executed the mirror image of that trading pattern. A 23-point rally on Tuesday took the Average back to the vicinity of its all-time high, and it has since been fluctuating around that high. Were the total mirror image to emerge, one would expect a newall-time high followed by a reverse failure to follow through and a return to the trading range. Whether this will be the case remains to be seen, but a new high achieved at this point would be quantitatively different than the previous string. The chart below shows the Dow together with (upper line) a daily breadth index and, below it, a weekly breadth index. The change in pattern of these two indices since June is noticeable. DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE OAILY BREAD!H INDEX . WEEKLY BEAOTH INDEX As the chart clearly shows, each and every successive high posted by the Dow between August 1982 and June 22nd was confirmed by a simultaneous high in both breadth mdicators. Action since June has been quite different. The Dow has scored three successive, approximately equivalent peaks. Each of the two breadth indices, however, shows a noticeably lower low at these peaks. Breadth, in other words, has not been in a sideways tradIng range but in a downtrend. I., What does thIS suggest Quite obviously. as far as the past 2! months are concerned, it indicates that the totally unselective phase of the rise has come to an end. This is perfectly normal ….. andwe would not expect lack of selectivity to return, even when, as we expect higher prices ultimately ensue. What is perhaps more important is that a new high, when posted, will certainly not see an immediate confir- mation by either of the breadth indicators. Any new hIgh that is scored over the near term, therefore, will set up a potential breadth non-confirmation. Thls has often appeared in the past in the middle stages of bull markets, and -breadtp has eventu- ally confirmed new highs on the Dow on a lagging basis. A fair amount of strength will be required to accomplish this, however. On Wednesday the daily breadth index was 13.3 pOints below its June high. A good day (1250 – 1300 advances) produces a 2! – 3-point rise in the index. The weekly indicator is currently 9.82 points below its peak, and a good one-week rise for this index is in the 3 – 4-point range. In other words. even a new peak scored at the present time will require some further confirmation. AWT It Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P Composite (12'00 p.m.) Cumulative Index (9/8/83) 1242.17 167.51 2012.97 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, lIARVEY, TABELL No statement or expression of opInion or any ather matter herein contained 15, or IS to be deemed 10 be, dneclly or ,nd,rectly, an offer or Ihe 50llc,tollon of an offer 10 buy or sell any scomly referred to or menhoned The moIler IS presented merely for Ihe convenience of the subscflber While we believe the source of our mforma lIon to be relIable, we 1f1 no way represent or guarantee Ihe accuracy thereof nor of the statemenls mude herein Any actIon 10 be taken by the Sub1crlber should be based on h,s own investigatIon and Informahon Janney Montgomery SCali, Inc, as a corporal lon, and 115 offICers or employees may now have, or may laler lake, poslhOM or trades In respect to any seCUritIes mentioned In thIS or any future Issue, and such pasdlon may be dIfferent from any vle ….s now or hereafter expreSSed In thiS or any other Issue. Janney Montgomery Scort, Inc, which 1 registered wtlh the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 11 Investment adVISOry and athe! customer5 Independently of cny s'clemenlS made If' Ihn or m ony other Issue Further In'ormallon on ony securlly menlloned herem 15 avollable on reque1

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE -,-,, – ….,.-.,,..–…..— '-..—- ,…–'-;-,'S.e.-p-te-m-b.e'r.,,..1-6..,.;…,,19'8'-3…..,,'—, – – – – – .- We presented here last week a chart showing the existence of a potential breadth divergence. Such a condition exists when the market averages, consisting of blue-chip stocks, move to a new bull-market high without simultaneous confirming highs by breadth indices, which are based on the advances and declines of all stocks. Such a divergence is not, in and of itself, a bearish indication. In one sense, indeed, it is just the opposite, suggesting that the bull market WIll continue to post new highs for some period of time. It does, however, suggest the necessity of change in basic attitude since, on the record, the divergence suggests that most of the bull market's amplitude is over and that subsequent new highs are unlikely to be very different from previous ones. The table below documents this tendency for the eight previous bull markets. Everyone of them ended with a final breadth divergence which can finued from 7 to 30 months before the bull market finally ended. The table shows the date of each bull market's low, the fIrst date of the' final breadth divergence, and, finally, the bull-market high. The final three columns show the number of months the divergence existed, the percent of the bull-market move already complete at the start of the divergence, and the percentage move on the Dow after the occurrence of the diver- gence. The clear conclusion is that, once a divergence has taken place, much of the bull market is over, in terms of price movement if not in terms of time. Months of Subsq. of Move Bull Market Low Start of Final Diverfrence Bull Market High Diverg. C'1tl Move June 1949 161. 60 Feb. 1951 25571 Jan. 1953 29f. 79 23 —–r.; Sept 1953 255.49 Apr. 1954 420.94 Apr. 1956 521.05 24 62 24 -i—0et-.-1957 . ,. 4H-9 Ai-l959!h-&Decd,OOl 7-34r91 30 63 1-91…..,,–I1- June 1962 535.76 May 1965 939.62 Feb. 1966 995.15 9 88 6 Oct. 1966 744.12 Aug. 1967 912.97 Dec. 1968 985.21 15 70 8 May 1970 631.16 Apr. 1972 954.55 Jan. 1973 1051. 70 9 77 10 Dec. 1974 577.60 Feb. 1976 994.57 Sept 1976 1014.79 7 95 2 Feb. 1978 742.12 July 1980 915.10 Apr. 1981 1024.05 10 61 11 Average 16 'i3 IT In the current instance, if the breadth divergence persists, it would suggest that the bull market probably has a remaining life of one to two years. That one to two l'ears is likely, however, to be a great deal less exciting than the move from August, 1982 to June, 1983. Specifically, it would suggest that the ultimate high is likely to be no more than 10-15 above the 1240 level (1350- 1425), and that some two-thirds or more of the ultimate bull-market move is already complete. Having said this, some further facts must be noted. First of all, we do not, strictly speak- ing, yet have such 8. divergence. In Monday's rather weird action, a new intra-day bull-market high( 1262. 80) was posted by some two points. The Dow, however, did not close at an all-time high. All the data in the table above is based on closing divergences. Whether Monday's action qualifies is a moot point, but it is fair to say that any closing high posted over the near term would, \n fact, produce'a divergence condition. Secondry, it must be remembered that any existing breadth divergence is taken to be cancelled by the posting of a subsequent new high in breadth indices. There exist on the record, numerous cases of divergences which have been erased on a lagging basis a few days after they first occured. However, in the vast majority of all cases, this occurs within 30 days, if it is going to occur at all. In other words, any divergence which emerged at this point, if it were not erased within six weeks, would be likely to be the final one of the bull market albeit that the divergence condition might last for as much as two years. On the basis of breadth, therefore, any achievement of a new high by the Dow over the next few months should be accompanied by broad and persistent strength which would erase the resultant divergence within a fairly short period of time. Otherwise, we would have strong evidence that the market had reached a mature stage. AWT rjs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL Dow-Jone Industrials (12.00 p.m.) 1217.1'7 S & P Composite (12 00 p. m. ) 164.64 Cumulative Index (9/15/83) 1999.09 No statement or expreulon of opinion Of ony olher matter herein contOlned IS, or 1510 be deemed 10 be, directly or Indirectly. en offer or the 50 liCitation of on offer 10 buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The mOiler IS presented merely for the convemence of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of Ollr rnferma hon 10 be reliable, we H'I no way represent or guorentee the accuracy thereof no! of Ihe statements m)de hercin Any CIchon 10 be token by Ihe subSCriber should be bosed on his own ,nvesl'go!lOn and rnformohon Jonney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, as 0 corporation and ,Is offu;ers Or employees, may now hove, or moy later take, POltIOl'lS or trades In respect to any ecurltlC!s mentIoned In thiS or any future ISSUe, and such posdlon may be hfferent from any views now or hereafter e.pressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered with the SEC as an Invel1menl odvlsor, may give ad',ce to Its Investment adsory and cthel ctJstomr mdependently of any statemenrJ made m thiS or m any other Iue Further ,nformotlon on any senmty mentioned herem IS available an request

-. , -, , I I, ,,,J\',' e09 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF ,, MEMBER NEW YOfilK STOCK ExCHANOE, INC MEMBEA AMEAICAN STOCK EXCHANGE September 23, 1983 Accompanied by widespread hoopla in the financial press, the Dow-Jones Industrisl Average moved on to a new bull-market high this week. The first such high posted, on Tuesday, was marginal., d the ,following day's trading failed to follow through, Thursday. however-; 8i\ -a -H-point rise on reasonably decent volume toadecisive new closing peak of 1257.52. Strength in the averages, coupled with noticable improvement in many individual stock patterns, renders less likely the emergence of an intermediate-scale correction, a development which, our readers are aware, we had regarded as a possibility. We are not, however, it seems to us, entirely out of the woods. The high in the Dow remains, so far, unconfirmed by accompanying highs either in the Transports or the S P 500. Most importantly, it has produced, as we related at some length in our last issue, a classic breadth divergence. The implications of this divergence are worth reiterating. First of all, as we noted last week, even assuming that it is the final divergence of the 1982-198 bull market, it does not suggest that this bull market is anywhere near its end in point of time. In every one of the last eight majocycle advances, there has existed a final breadth divergence. However, it has occurred with leads ranging from 7 to 30 months on the ultimate bull-market highs. Thus, diverging breadth action at this stage is in no way inconsistent with cycle theory, which strongly suggests that the present upswing should continue at least into 1984 and probably 1985. What it does suggest is an advancing plilSe considerably less dynamic than the August-June, sixty-percent advance. ,n ' ….n ,11 , …11 'M ' J 10M .1'1 .A, 1),1 '''' ..nn h f \I 1, .,. W . IJh .I'm rI, LIJ I' ,.11 ' ,,.11 .ru J ,.M… .. .,. . 'llll ' .kLIiI I J, .. .If ,,,,,, ru J' ,nn \'I' II , IA .,. HI f . – -. N r' ,''.'''' ''''''' – –. '''''' ''1M '''' ,m ,en .en Vi .en 11\;/ .n II , ,.m 19, 19S' – ….. 5, 'N ,.., .. …. ,. ,'''''' ….' Ill…. 15m . ,'5m ,.''1ISIl …. 12. '9SS – ….T ,2, 'ffi fA! 15. ,9S9 – lEe ,3. '9j\\. ,0 '''' lt ,.0 ''''' '2. '''''' – FIl g. ''''l'Im II' J..SSO .-'.SOl lISIl J , .J \11 'VVV V '00 '''''' .1 (i ''!M ,' II ,om IY 'I . ,,…. ,…. .' ,, . , .' r'Vl ….n ,.m ,….. i j .,.., en ' ,'','.'..' '''' ' …. ',. '967 – lEe 3. ''11m …. S. '972 – …. II. ',,!lnn ….' 11 ,', 0' .,, fEB 211. 1976 SEP 21. 197fhn .lILY IS. 1980 Ff'I 21. IfHn , This is indicated by the charts above. They show the history of the eight previous bull markets from their first bresdth divergence to their ultimate high, the dates of those two points being given on each chart. However, the charts have been adjusted to show the Dow in current terms, using Wednesday's close as a reference point, and the dating has been adjusted to run forwsrd from that close. They thus represent eight possible scenarios for activity over the next one to two years. As can be seen, the eight market periods have some similarity, in most cases show- ing a potential high in the 140D-1500 range and a possible downside risk in the middle 1100 area. Fairly wide intermediate corrections are also a feature. While the scenarios shown are by no means poor, they ddinitely represent a change from the market environment of the past year. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1254.17 S '& P Composite (l200 p.m. 169.38 Cumulative Index (9/22/83) 2042.00 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL ' No statemenl or e)(prenian of opmlon or any other moiler herein contolned 15, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or Indirectly, on offer or the s.ollCltotlon of on offer to bvy or , any seC\lrlly referred 10 or mentioned The mot'er II prnenled merely for the converlene,- 01 the 51,1bscrrber While we bellve Ihe sources of ovr Informolion to be rellobl\!, we In no way represent or guaronlee Ihe accurocy Ihereof nOI of Ihe stalements mude herem Any actiOn to be token by the subSCriber should be bosed on his own Investlgallon ond lnfolmOliofl Jonney Montgomery Scot!, Inc, 0 0 corpOlOhofl, ond lis officers or employees, moy now hove, 0'1 '!'noy loter toke, , pCIltlons or trodes In respect to ony seculltle mentioned ' 1IIS 01 ony future Inue, ond such pOllron moy be different from ony vrews now or hereafler eprened ' thIS or ony Olher ISSVe Janney Montgomery Scott. Inc, which IS reglsered wl,h Ii'll' SEC os on Investment odvlsor, may g,ve adVice to Its ,nvestment adviilOry ond othel customers Independently of any stotemellls mode In Ihls or In any other liSue FI,vlher Informolion on ony securrly mentioned herem IS avalloble on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF' MeMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE September 30, 1983 ' T-hreeweeks -Hgo.we-.Jloted-inthis,spacethattl\e.,.D.seIIled.,1l!.B-eex-J'utiIlg the mirrQ! imagf on its trading pattern of early Au.rt– That pattern'saw the Average post a new low at 1163.-06 -August T 8, decisively under the 1180-1250 trading range, which had held since June. It spent a week below the old range and promptly moved back into it. The mirror Image has now been largely completed. Monday's new high of 1260.77 was followed by a 20-point three-day retracement. Meanwhile, further to compound the confusion, the staid Utilities continued to move ahead to new peaks through mid-week, while the Transportation Index underwent a minor blood bath, shedding some 24 points from its high of last week. On the surface, the general market picture appears to be, to say the least, confused. Paradoxically, despite all the seemingly meaningless fluctuation, the market picture may have been shaping up more clearly, perhaps, than has been the case for some time. Before turning a microscope on the current status it is well to remember the broader perspective. We are in a bull market that is barely 13 months old whIch is, in turn. part of a cycle which should last approximately 48 months and spend some 50 to 80 of its total lifespan advancing. From a cycle point of view, therefore, it is hardly surprising to see the market post new peaks. Indeed, it should be expected to do so at various intervali throughout the remainder of 1983, probably through most of 1984, and possIbly into 1985 as well. We have spent the last two issues of this letter pointing out that ihere exists a potential breadth divergence, and we have indicated that we thmk it prudent to assume that this divergence will not be subsequently corrected. However, as we examined in detail last week, even under divergence conditions. it would be logical to expect the market to continue to post new highs from six months to two years. Thus, there is absolutely nothing in the existing breadth condition that conflicts with what cycle theory is telling us about the prospect for new stock-market peaks. What, then, is the divergence telling us It is telling us, a reading of history would seem to indi- cate, two things. First, the subsequent peaks, which we indeed expect, may not be significantly differ- ent than the hIghs recently attained. (In this regard, it must be noted that, with the Dow now around I–t—ce–of—–WO-poinnly 8. We wld–t-her-efor-S-rDtr-egar-d-a,.iigre of 1 400-as..being..signifi–.- cantly different from 1250.) Secondly, breadth divergence conditions have tended to create periods of uncertainty during which the market was vulnerable to moderately severe and fairly protracted intermedi- ate-term declines. The downswings of 1960 and 1965, for example, took place under divergence condi- tions. These were, however, intermediate-term corrections, not bear markets. At the risk of boring our readers with overly elementary facts, we think it worthwhile to recall that there exist two basic elements to successful portfolio management — market timing and stock selection. At various times, the importance of one or the other of these two factors overshadows the other. For the past year market timing was in one senSe absolutely vital — Le., the decision had to be made to remain fully invested in common stocks. Once that decision had been made it was best to ignore timing alto- gether. One of the pitfalls into which many advisors stumbled last Fall and early this year was the attempt to be overly clever about calling short-term turns at a time when the market was essentially doing very little but going straight up. During the last year, moreover, while some stocks obviously significantly outperformed others, the advance was essentially broad. The vast majority of common stocks participated in the rise from August, 1982 through June, 1983, and it was difficult over this period of time to choose stocks which did not offer at least satisfactory investment performance. Present indications are, however, that we are entering a period in which stock selection will assume renewed importance. The confusing behavior of the averages, together with markedly PDQr breadth and a number of other indicators, are suggesting that the bull market has entered a more mature stage. Char- acteristically in such a stage, a large number of issues do not participate in the continued upswing and indeed move counter to the major trend. We have already seen this sort of performance in a host of secondary Over-the-Counter issues, some of which have moved down as much as 50 at a time when gen- eral market indicators have been posting new peaks. . We expect, moreover, the continuance of the sort of' environment in which stock selection remains — …. the major factor in investment success, and we would therefore concentrate on it rather than trying to be overly clever about timing the market. Were the averages to move higher, say to the 1400 level on the Dow mentioned above, it is possible, depending upon market conditions at the time, that we might wish to revise this view and advocate a fundamental timing decision. i.e., the reduction of exposure to common stocks. For the time being, however, we feel that a basic investment stance should be one involving a full commitment to equities. Those equities, however, should be carefully selected with a view to funda- mental cheapness and a technical position which combines upside potential with a minimum of downside risk. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m. ) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (9/29/83) 1233.03 166.38 2025.44 ANTHONY IV. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL . No statement or expression of opr,uon Of any orher motter herein conOIned IS, or IS fa be deemed fa be, directly or mdrrectly, on offer or the soilCitohon of on offer 10 buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The motter IS pmsen1ed merely for lhe convemenct of the subscrIber While 'f'Je belIeve the sovrces of our InformalIOn to be reliable, we In no woy represent or guarantee Ihe aec.uracy thereof nor of the s'olements mude herem Pony oellOn to be to(!n by the subSCriber should be based on h,s own InvestigatIon and mformatlon Jonney Montgomery Stott, Inc., oS 0 corporotlon, ond lis offlc.ers or employees, moy now hove, or moy 10Ter loke, POSITIons or trodes In respect to ony securITIes mentioned In thIS or ony fulure Issue, ond such pOltlon moy be dIfferent from ony v,ews now or hereoher el'pressed In thIS or any other Inue Jonney Montgomery 5cott, Inc, whlc.h IS regIstered WIth the SEC os on Investment adVIsor, may gIve odvlce- to .ts Investment adVISOry and othel c.ustomers Independently of any slotemenl mode In thIS or In any other Issue Further Informotlon on ony seoJrlty mentIoned here' IS ovolloble on request

, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 October 7, 1983 With these words. we are. at the same time, starting a new venture and continuing an old tradition. If The above repeats the initial sentence of this letter on August 7, 1970. That letter was the first issue of this publication under the imprint of the Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Division of what was then Montgomery, Scott, & Co. Today's issue is the first one to be published by the independent entity of Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc., Members of the New York Stock Exchange. We went on, 13 years ago. to note that we were writing fit he continuation of a letter that has been published weekly since 1944. During this period, the letter has appeared under the imprint of three different firms and under the by-line of two authors, the 'current one and his late father, Edmund W. Tabel!, who founded this publication 26 years ago, and who pioneered many of the analytical concepts still referred to herein. Delafield, Harvey. Tabell Inc., of course, becomes the fourth issuar, and the period of continuous weekly publication of the letter has now extended to 39 years. It is our hope that our readership will continue to find some use for the observations herein during the many years we expect to continue this pUblication in the future. In general terms, we think the hallenges which will be confronting us in the era beginning October, 1983 are very different from the ones which faced us 13 years ago. The issue quoted above emerged with the Dow at 722.28, two months. Lafter tha bottom of the 1970hear market had been reached. At that time, we said, We have come through a trying period over the past 18 months. Stock prices have plunged more precipitously than at any time since the 1930's. Meanwhile, the financial press informs us on a daily baSIs of a multitude of problems besetting the economy …. It is hardly our intention to claim that our economic difficulties are not real. …. But, with most stocks having declined anywhere from 30 to 90 froIIJ..!Bi.!'lY'''1cen.!..J1jghs, it is sillYl'reten.i…!hat the market is sailing along totally oblivious to surrounding deterioration. 11 – – – – — – '' …… – – ——- We had, moreover, at that point, not seen the worst. The bear market of 1973-1974 which, in many ways, made 1969-1970 seem like a picnic, was still ahead of us, with its low of 577.60 in the Dow- Jones Industrials. With the benefit of 20120 hindsight it is possible to say that we began our predeces- sor enterprise in an atmosphere of stock-market pessimism that had been unparalleled over the previous 40-odd years. There could not, in short, be a greater contrast to the atmosphere existing today as Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc. is launched. Thirteen years ago, we were two months past the low of the worst bear market in the memory of most investors. Last mght, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average achieved the highest close in its history. That high, moreover, represents the peak so far of a bull market which has, by many measurements which we have had the occasion to document over the past year,been the most dynamic one on record since the 1920's. We do not, as our readers are aware, think that bull market is anywhere near its end. Nonethe- less, as we look at the next 24 months or so, we cannot help but reflect that our task in this space will be the diametric opposite of the one to which we set ourselves in 1970. At that point it was necessary to marshal all our feeble powers of persuasion to convince our readership that Armageddon was not at hand and that common stocks represented uncommon bargains. At some point during the next two years, it will almost certainly become necessary to remind those readers that there exist such things as bear markets and that common stocks do not go up forever. Overriding all of this however, there is, we think, a fundamental change in the stock-market environment from that which existed in 1970. Four and one-half years before we wrote that first letter the Dow had reached a high around the 1000 level. It was not to exceed that high by a significant margin for 13 more years. The current bull market, whatever signs of maturity it may now be exhibit- ing or may exhibit in the future, has moved us decisively out of a secular flat trend that lasted from 1966 until early 1983. As we have noted over the past six months, the exact shape of that trend remains unclear, and it will be the task of this letter to comment on the evidence regarding that shape as it de- velops. For many reasons, however, we are confident that it will involve levels for stock prices in general which will make it obvious that the bull market which began a bit over a year ago was nothing more than a curtain raiser. In commenting on the market outlook back in August, 1970, we concluded, Bit is our belief, however, that it will usher in an era propitious for Delafield, Harvey, Tabell and. much more importantly. our clients. The same conclu'sion holds true today and. we think. happily. to an even greater degree. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dw-Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) 1270.22 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 170.59 Cumulative Index (10/7183) 2046.69 … No statement or expressIon 01 opinion or any other mailer herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Ind!rectly, an offer or the sollcltahon 01 an offer to buyor sell any secunty referred to or menl!oneo The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscfloor While we believe the sources 01 OUf Informal!on 10 be reliable, we In no way represent or guaranlee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any action 10 be taken by Ihe subscriber should be based on hIS own Investigation and informatIon Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, as a corporahon and lIs officers or employees, may flOW have, 01 may laler take, poslhons or trades In respect 10 any secufltles mentioned In thiS or any future issue, and such POSition may be dl1ferenl from any views now or herealler expressed m thIS or any other Issue Delafreld Harvey, labell Inc whIch Is regIStered with the SEC as an Investment adVIsor, may give advice to lIs Invcstment adVISOry and Olhcr customers Independenlly of any statements made In thiS or In anv other Issue Further Information on any securtly menhoned herein IS available on reQuest