TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (6091 9249660 ……. ….. .. -…..,……-……,..,., -'December 1983 . . ., …,.., —;.,..-..——-…. 2-, . . -.—-..– . With the Dow moving to a new high, however marginally, early this week, there has be- gun to appear occasional commentary on the Traditional Year-End Rally, along with speculaful that such a rally already might have begun. We confess to a certain proprietary interest in this particular phenomenon, having been writing about it for lonser (some 20 years) than any- one we are aware of, and, as we have shown many times, it is indeed a demonstrable phenom- enon. If it has already begul this year, it will have to be dated from November 7, when the Dow closed at 1214.84, from which level it has since moved ahead without noticable correction. What is the precedent for a year-end rally beginning this early The table below shows the starting months for each of the 57 year-end rallies since 1926. As can be seen, the start of such a rally in November would not be a totally unprecedented phenomenon. It has begun in November 13 times out of 57 and in November or earlier 30 times of 57. Indeed, in one year (1942), it can be defined as having started as early as April, since the average proceeded from that month's low to the end of the year without any correction of as much as 4. On numerous occasions the year-end advance can be dated from mid-summer. Starting Month 57 Year-End Rallies Apr 1 May o Aug Sep 1 4 Dec -1st 10 days Dec-2nd 10 days 6 10 Jun 2 Oct 7 Dec-3rd Ie days 11 Jul 2 Nov 13 Total '57 What is, of course, of current interest is whether an early start for the year-end rally povides.,.any..jndicationoLmaI'ketation…irl.thedllonthst!head.. In gene.rJ!I.Jt would appear to be a mildly bullish factor. Since 1926 the average monthly percentage change for the month of December has been 1.21. ,In those years where the year-end rally began early, (before Dec- ember), the average change has been 3.07!. and there has, furthermore, been only one loss in those 30 years. This is somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy, since an early rally-start implies a rising December, but it is nonetheless interesting. There is, moreover, some evidence that an early-starting rally tends to persist longer in- to the new year. The following table shows the ending month for the previous 57 year-end rallies, broken down by whether those rallies began prior to the month of December or in December. As can be seen, there is a slight tendency for rallies which begin early to persist longer. Of the twelve rallies which persisted into the new year beyond March, ten of them started prior to December in the previous year. By contrast, more thanhalf the rallies which began late ended in January the following year, including the only two cases on record (1976 and 1977) where the year-end rally failed to extend into the new year. Ending Month 57 Year-End Rallies Rally Start Rally Start Bef Dec. Dec. Total Jan 13 15 28 Feb 5 7 12 Mar 2 3 5 Apr 5 0 5 May 2 2 4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Bef Dec. 1 0 1 1 30 Dec. -0 0 0 0 F. Total –1- 0 1 1 57 The longer we can continue in December, therefore, without noticable correction, the stronger the odds become that the 1983-1984 year-end rally must be dated from November 7. This in turn would tend to suggest a reasonably good continuation of that rally into 1984. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) 1274.89 S & P Composite (12 00 p.m.) 166.52 Cumulative Index (12/1/83) 1924.65 No statement or I!KpreSSlon 01 opinion or any other matl(U herem conta!nedls, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly Of mdlrectly, an oller or the soliCitation of an offer to buyr sell any secunly referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience 01 the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our mtormatlon to be rehable, we In no way represent or guaranlee the accuracy thereof nor of fhe statements made herein Any action to be laken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own Invesl!gal!on and Information Delafield, HafV(lY, Tabelt Inc, as a corporation and lis oHlcers or employees, may now have, or may laler take. pOSitions Of trades In respect 10 any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any lulure Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In this or any otner Issue Delafield Harvev, Tabell Inc, which Is regIstered with the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to ItS Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In this or In any other Issue Further Information on any security menlloned herein Is available on reQuest

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 ''' —,.,.—- – . – . …,.,.. — . D.e.c.empftl'9,J- 9Bl. – 'c' or'The' stock'market can be considered on many levels, one' ()'f'-these;levelsbeing 'that spectacle. At those times when it is moving rapidly either up or down, the market, in addition to performing an economic function, serves as an entertainment vehicle, and those of us who are required to comment thereon can function almost as drama critics. Viewed in this light, the performance since June has been, to put it simply, boring, and we would all have been better off walking out after the first-act curtain. The past two weeks have been a dreary replay of the same scene that has been being played out ever since last summer. A newall-time high a week ago Tuesday lasted for exactly one day before the market fell back, and that high has not since been exceeded. This was an even worse performance than the one in June. which saw two consecutive new highs followed by a three-month hiatus and the October experience where three successive new peaks were follow- ed by seven weeks of trading below the high ground. Meanwhile, the attainment of newall-time high territory by the Dow was confirmed by just about nothing else. On the day the high was scored, the Transportation Average, while technically confirming, had reached its peak four days previous. The Dow-Jones Utilities, which had played a standout bit part in the dull action up to early November, were 2.6 below their high on November 29, at 136.99, and have trended lower ever since closing on Tuesday at 133.96. Broad-based indicators have been equally dull. The Standard & Poor's 500 close of 167.91 on November 29 compared to its bull-market high of 172.65, achieved back in early October. The most important nonconfirmation 01 all, that 0; the daily breadth index, continued and 1 – –has .now-been..jneffect.,sinceJ.une16. Ontha!ayth,.))o.jY..,!!losed at 124B…)0 versus a breadt-.-ch,..f–j index at 1099.12. The comparable figures for October 10 were 1284.65 and '1090 26. For '.- – .. November 29 they were 1287.20 and 1085.12. There was, once, a day when the sort of information outlined above would have been al- most proprietary to a few technicians. There are now a great many more members of the tech- nical fraternity, 'and we doubt that there are many serious investors who are not aware, at this stage, that a breadth divergence exists. Fewer may be aware that such divergences often possess extreme lead times and can, equally often, be cancelled well after their first emergence — facts we have taken the trouble to point out in prior issues of this letter. Sorre bright spots exist in the midst of the dullness, although they are something less than blinding sunbursts. Margin debits balances continue to sail ahead to new highs, although this statistic, it must be remembered, is a coincident indicator and can turn down at any time. Nevertheless, the ability of debits to increase in the sideways market since June must be consi- dered encouraging. Many analysts have pointed to the record levels of the short-interest ratio, which has now exceeded twice the average daily volume for the past three months. Taken by itself, this constitutes a highly bullish figure. The problem is that such levels have histOrically been attained after a sharply declining market. A short-interest ratio of over 2.00 with the averages near bull-market peaks is an historically rarer phenomenon and must be examined im some detail, something we intend to do in future issues. A glass may be viewed as either half-empty or half-full, and, taking the optimistic view, even though it is only the Dow components and issues of like quality which are moving ahead, something, at least, is providing upside leadership. The thirty Dow issues, last time we looked, were trading on the Exchange and could, in fact, be bought. Thus profitable investment op- portunities have indeed existed since June and have not been all that hard to find. The market drama since last summer may indeed have failed to provide us with entertain- ment. However, it is arguable that it has successfully fulfilled its more important function of providing an equitable investment return and that it may well continue to do so, however long the current dreary play continues. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) 1258.74 S & P Composite (12 00 p. m. ) 165.22 Cumulative Index (12/8/83) 2026.64 No statement Of e)(preSSlon 01 OPinion Of any other matter herein contained IS or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly Of mdlreclly, an offer O!' the sohclta\!on of an oHer to buy or sell any secunty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience 01 the subscriber While we believe the sources of our mlormatlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee tM accuracy thcreol nor 01 the statements made herem Any action to be taken bylne subscnber sl10uld be based on I1lsown mvestlgatlon and mlormatlon Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, as a corporailon and ItS officers or employees, may now nave, or may later take, positions or trades In respect to any securIties menltoned In tl1lso, any fulure Issue, and such position may be dl!lerent hom any views nowor helealter expressed In Ihls or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, label! Inc, whiCh Is registered With the SEC as an Investment advisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVisory and other customers Independently 01 any statements made In lhls or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any secunty menHoned herem IS available on request

\, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 9249660 I-…,–,,,-, . , Decembe.l6,t9;l-….,….,,….. Our regular readers are aware that this letter tends to be a slave to tradition. They are -, further aware that one such tradition calls for the issuance, in December, of a two-part year-end forecast, the first part reviewing the year past and the second attempting to look a year into the future. This week we are scheduled for a review of the past year, and we intend to indulge in a bit of license. First of all, it seems to us two separate revie.vs, covering two wildly divergent recent periods, are necessary, and, secondly, we intend to extend the timespan under analysis a bit long- er than a year, carrying it back to August 12, 1982. The first of the two stock-market periods we think it necessary to cover began on that date, and its end can be dated, with equal precision at June 16, 1983. In almost 30 years of writing about the stock market, we cannot recall an era on which it was more enjoyable to comment, and the records which were shattered along the way were a source of endless fascination to a student of stock-market history. The fun began on August 17, with an advance of 38 points in the Dow, the second biggest one-day percentage rise of the post-war period. The next day's volume topped 100 million shares for the first time in market history, shattering the previous record by some 40. That level of trading has subsequently been exceeded only five times and not by much. Indeed, this particular statistic was one of the first clues that a new era was being ushered in. For the eight days ended August 26, the Dow was up almost 100 points, the advance setting another post-war record, with records also being achieved in both volume and breadth. By Sep- tember 15, less than five weeks after the process had started, the advance had reached the 20 threshhold by which technicians have historically defined major bull markets, and, by early October, the Dow found itself above the 1000 level, having mov&j ahead 236 points in a couple of months. -ByRoye!!lber 4, a,new all-time high had been achieved. That high shortly receded into history. The 1982-1983 year-end rally eXtended-itselr-fo-a sustained six-manti, 26 advance, reaching 1248.30 on June 16. By the time the whole Ar.ocess was' over, the Dow was up 60.67 over ten months. That period measurably constituted the best ten- month performance turned in by the stock market since 1933-1934, and, even if the market had never moved on to new highs, the ten months from August, 1982 to June, 1983 would, by themselves, have constituted one of the better bull markets in recent history. Even more astounding, while the Dow was in the process of shattering all available upside records, it was not where the action was. The real fireworks were taking place over the counter, where the NASDAQ Industrial Index was posting an advance of 129, while new-issue activity and volume were also setting records. The rise in that capi1!iJ-weighted index probably understated the true magnitude of the advance, and moves of 400-500 were not uncommon. As we noted above, the end of that particular era can be exactly dated in mid -June, and it is necessary separately to review what has happened since. What has happened can be summarized by one word, Nothing. The Dow has continued to post new highs, the last one as recently as Novem- ber 29, at 1287.20. During the period from June 16 to date it has held in a trading range bounded by that high and the August 8 low of 1163.06, a span of just over 10. As just about everybody who can read is aware, the performance of the Dow, lackluster at best, has been better than that of most averages. The S & P 500 staggered to a new high in October and has not been able to ex- ceed it since. Ever since June, broad market measures have managed to perform considerably worse than the senior indicators,creating the widely-heralded divergence. Meanwhile, the OTC market has performed a 180-degree turn from the heady ebullience of last summer and currently finds itself in total disarray, with the NASDAQ Index down 23, a figure which, again, probably understates the case. An investor in June might well have thought he had rediscovered Golconda. By Decembe, he was probably asking the market impatiently, What have you done .for me lately. This dichotomy, it seems to us, is an essential component of a 1984 forecast. Is the desmtude of the last six months simply a corrective process, one sorely needed in the light of the unprecedent- ed rise which came before it, or is it part of a monster distributional tip which threatens to take back a substantial part of the riches amassed since last year What is the meaning of the widely diverg- ing performances in the quality and the secondary sections of the market Most important, where does the action of the past 16 months fit in to an historical timeframe We will assay our own answers to these questions next week. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (12/15/83) 1238.21 161. 84 1993.78 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or eypreSSIQn of opinion or any other mailer herein contained Is, or IS to be deemed to be, dnecily or indirectly, an oller or the sollcltallon 01 an otler 10 buyor sell any secunty referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely lor the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources 01 our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof norol fhe statements made herem AnraC/ron fa be faken by the subscriber should be based on hIS own investlgahon and mlormatlon Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and lis officers or emplOyees, may now have, or may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to any secuflhes mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such POSition may be dllferonl from any views now or hereaUer expressed In this or any other Issue Delaheld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS reglslered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may gIVe advice to ItS Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statemenls made In thiS or In any other Issue Further IIlformatlon on any security mentioned herein Is avaIlable on reQuest

— TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC.' MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC. (609) 9249660 —;r—- … h!t. – ,.. – — ecembgr …23. !,,193 , As we iioted A last week, the time has arrived for our customary year-end -forecast,. and we find the crystal ball for 1984 a bit more clouded than was the case a year ago. At that time, the occurrence of a typical bull-market takeoff in August, 1982 was well documented, and we were thus able to fore- cast, with the Dow at 1041, that 1983 will be a good market year. We noted that there exist reason- able upside targets in the mid-1300's and that the Dow, by the end of 1983, could well have made substantial progress toward that goal. With an intra-day high of 1296.95 having been attained last month, that particular projection wound up reasonably close to the mark. This year, as noted, presents a more difficult case. In our review last week, we summarized market action from August, 1982 through June, 1983 as being the typical fabric of a bull market. The problem in looking ahead to next year lies in interpreting the desultory action which has occurred since that time. Either the second-half drabness is simply a necessary corrective process to the upside fire- works which preceded it or a top formation of some importance. We are, in other words, approaching the fundamental question, What are the probabilities that the bull market is effectively over. It is always necessary to look at market swings in terms of both time and amplitude. From the former perspective, it seems highly unlikely that the upswing which began in August, 1982 should be coming to an end at this early stage. From the latter point of view, however, the prospect appears more plausible. Let us summarize where we stand today. August, 1982 began the 24th major stock- market cycle since 1896. As of December, 1983, it is only 16 months old and the average length of such cycles, measured, remember, low to low, is 45 months, with the shortest on record being 26 months. The Dow to date has advanced for only 15 months, and there exist only four cycles out of the previous 23, none since 1938, where the total number of advancing months has been less than 15. The shortest post-World-War-II advancing phase was 26 months, beginning in October, 1966. Moreover, the cycle, minimallvL.should spend 55-60 of its life (as much as 90) advancing. If the 15-month advance so far means the 'cycle is more tllan half over, It woula-15e one ofme shortestI'il1ljOl'O!lnrket-cyclelrOn-record—'-'– Very simply, the timing appears drastically wrong for a major top starting to build in late 1983-early 1984. Yet we have had, so far, a 66 advance. There are numerous major advances on record which have wound up falling short of this mark, and it is indeed necessary to go back to 1953-1956 to find a bull-market upswing (104) which exceeded it by any significant margin. We have, furthermore, moved to 126 of the previous high chalked up in April, 1981. While this falls short of the kind of advances recorded in the 1950's and 1960's, it is considerably better than the four most recent cycles. To the extent that further upside potential exists in the current bull market, therefore, it will be in the upper range of past historical experience. What then of our forecast For the time being, we prefer to let the timing argument carry the day and are willing to proceed on the assumption that what started in June does not constitute a top formation. There exists ample historical precedent for a lengthy pause during the course of an upswing; much along the lines of the six-month trading range we have seen to date. Seven of the last eight cycles have seen such pauses. They have been as short as five months, involving corrections of as little as 7, on the order of what we have seen to date, and they have, as well, inVOlved corrections as deep as 17. The aftermaths of such pauses have, likewise, been varied, but in all cases the Dow was able to equal the previous highs ,and in most cases it exceeded them comfortably. Our current working hypothesis, therefore, calls for the recent sideways trading range to end sometime in 1984, possibly with a bit more corrective action than has already taken place. We would expect, however, that 1984, once this corrective process is over, will see new highs. We would not, however, in the light of current evidence coupled with the extent of the advance so far, expect those highs to be significantly greater than the peaks already achieved. It is J moreover, in the case of any forecast, appropriate to reserve the .right… of revision, and we think it especially appropriate in this case. There has, without a doubt, been extensive market deterioration since June, and we have been pointing it out with great regularity in this letter. If this deterioration continues well into the new year, the likelihood of the upside phase of the current cycle being at an end would become much greater, even with the almost total lack of historical precedent for a major top at this early point in time. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1251. 83 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 163.19 Cumulative Index (12/22/83) 1990.77 A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL No statement or expressIon of opinion or any other matter herC\n contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be directly or indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buyor sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely lor the convenience of the subscnber While we bellel/e lhe sources of our information to be reliable, weln noway represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof norot the statements made herem Any action 10 be taken by the subscnbershould be based on his own investigation and Information Oelafletd, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporatIOn and lIs ollicers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poslIIons or trades In respect to any secuntles mentioned In thiS or any tuture Issue, and such posItion may be dillerenl from any ViewS nowor hereafter expressed In thiS Of any other Issue Delafield, HaNey, rabel! Inc, which Is regIstered With the SEC as an mveslmentadvlsor, may give advice toilS Investment adVISOry and other customers mdependently 01 any statemenls made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any secuf!\y mentioned herein IS available on request 1-