, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 October 7, 1983 With these words. we are. at the same time, starting a new venture and continuing an old tradition. If The above repeats the initial sentence of this letter on August 7, 1970. That letter was the first issue of this publication under the imprint of the Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Division of what was then Montgomery, Scott, & Co. Today's issue is the first one to be published by the independent entity of Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc., Members of the New York Stock Exchange. We went on, 13 years ago. to note that we were writing fit he continuation of a letter that has been published weekly since 1944. During this period, the letter has appeared under the imprint of three different firms and under the by-line of two authors, the 'current one and his late father, Edmund W. Tabel!, who founded this publication 26 years ago, and who pioneered many of the analytical concepts still referred to herein. Delafield, Harvey. Tabell Inc., of course, becomes the fourth issuar, and the period of continuous weekly publication of the letter has now extended to 39 years. It is our hope that our readership will continue to find some use for the observations herein during the many years we expect to continue this pUblication in the future. In general terms, we think the hallenges which will be confronting us in the era beginning October, 1983 are very different from the ones which faced us 13 years ago. The issue quoted above emerged with the Dow at 722.28, two months. Lafter tha bottom of the 1970hear market had been reached. At that time, we said, We have come through a trying period over the past 18 months. Stock prices have plunged more precipitously than at any time since the 1930's. Meanwhile, the financial press informs us on a daily baSIs of a multitude of problems besetting the economy …. It is hardly our intention to claim that our economic difficulties are not real. …. But, with most stocks having declined anywhere from 30 to 90 froIIJ..!Bi.!'lY'''1cen.!..J1jghs, it is sillYl'reten.i…!hat the market is sailing along totally oblivious to surrounding deterioration. 11 – – – – — – '' …… – – ——- We had, moreover, at that point, not seen the worst. The bear market of 1973-1974 which, in many ways, made 1969-1970 seem like a picnic, was still ahead of us, with its low of 577.60 in the Dow- Jones Industrials. With the benefit of 20120 hindsight it is possible to say that we began our predeces- sor enterprise in an atmosphere of stock-market pessimism that had been unparalleled over the previous 40-odd years. There could not, in short, be a greater contrast to the atmosphere existing today as Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc. is launched. Thirteen years ago, we were two months past the low of the worst bear market in the memory of most investors. Last mght, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average achieved the highest close in its history. That high, moreover, represents the peak so far of a bull market which has, by many measurements which we have had the occasion to document over the past year,been the most dynamic one on record since the 1920's. We do not, as our readers are aware, think that bull market is anywhere near its end. Nonethe- less, as we look at the next 24 months or so, we cannot help but reflect that our task in this space will be the diametric opposite of the one to which we set ourselves in 1970. At that point it was necessary to marshal all our feeble powers of persuasion to convince our readership that Armageddon was not at hand and that common stocks represented uncommon bargains. At some point during the next two years, it will almost certainly become necessary to remind those readers that there exist such things as bear markets and that common stocks do not go up forever. Overriding all of this however, there is, we think, a fundamental change in the stock-market environment from that which existed in 1970. Four and one-half years before we wrote that first letter the Dow had reached a high around the 1000 level. It was not to exceed that high by a significant margin for 13 more years. The current bull market, whatever signs of maturity it may now be exhibit- ing or may exhibit in the future, has moved us decisively out of a secular flat trend that lasted from 1966 until early 1983. As we have noted over the past six months, the exact shape of that trend remains unclear, and it will be the task of this letter to comment on the evidence regarding that shape as it de- velops. For many reasons, however, we are confident that it will involve levels for stock prices in general which will make it obvious that the bull market which began a bit over a year ago was nothing more than a curtain raiser. In commenting on the market outlook back in August, 1970, we concluded, Bit is our belief, however, that it will usher in an era propitious for Delafield, Harvey, Tabell and. much more importantly. our clients. The same conclu'sion holds true today and. we think. happily. to an even greater degree. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dw-Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) 1270.22 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 170.59 Cumulative Index (10/7183) 2046.69 … No statement or expressIon 01 opinion or any other mailer herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Ind!rectly, an offer or the sollcltahon 01 an offer to buyor sell any secunty referred to or menl!oneo The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscfloor While we believe the sources 01 OUf Informal!on 10 be reliable, we In no way represent or guaranlee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any action 10 be taken by Ihe subscriber should be based on hIS own Investigation and informatIon Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, as a corporahon and lIs officers or employees, may flOW have, 01 may laler take, poslhons or trades In respect 10 any secufltles mentioned In thiS or any future issue, and such POSition may be dl1ferenl from any views now or herealler expressed m thIS or any other Issue Delafreld Harvey, labell Inc whIch Is regIStered with the SEC as an Investment adVIsor, may give advice to lIs Invcstment adVISOry and Olhcr customers Independenlly of any statements made In thiS or In anv other Issue Further Information on any securtly menhoned herein IS available on reQuest

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 October 14, 1983 The resumption of the march to new bull-market highs, a feature of the last two weeks of trad- ing, was not without its redeeming qualities. Particularly impressive was the action of Thursday, 'October ;6jwIYen71;tn'li'-point advance–,;nthe– Dow'to'1lnewpeakof;1268JlO 'Jeaturet-ail-millio,,! 'shares- -, ' changing hands. the best volume level since last June. Friday's session tacked on another three points, and even the Monday seSSIOn, where volume dried up to 67 million shares, probably under the influence of the bank holiday, displayed some positive tendencies, as the market sold off sharply in early-morning trading and was able to initiate a convincing mid-day reversal, even to the extent of turning what had been sharply negative breadth early in the day to positive breadth by the closing bell. The session also produced new highs in the S & P 500 and NYSE indic.es, indicators, which had hitherto' been lagging the DJIA. The lack of follow-through over the next three days, particularly Tuesday's H)-point decline, was disappointing but well within the context of recent trading patterns, where most short-term upward moves have required some fairly substantial consolidation. .L– To report the good news first, we think the market's ability to show upside strength over the past fortnight tends to suggest a reinterpretation of what has been happening over the Summer of 1983. It now becomes at least plausible that this entire process, although the Dow was never down more than 6 at worst, constitutes a correction of intermediate-term proportions and, more importantly, one of sufficient magnitude to lay the groundwork for further assaults on new high territory. Apparently dur- ing the three'month period, as upside progress in the averages simpiy staiied, a rotating correction' pro- cess in different stocks at different times was sufficient to wring out whatever excess optimism had been built into stock prices as of last Spring. This is particularly exemplified in the action since June in the Over-The-Counter market. The high in the NASDAQ Industrial Index was 408 on June 14, and at that point it had completed an advance of over 130 from its August, 1982 low, better than twice the gains posted by the Dow and the S & P 500. However, the performance of the Index itself really understates what went on over a nine'month period in the frothier areas of OTC trading where 400-500 gains were as much the rule as the exception. The OTC Index continued to post new lows through yesterday and, I–t—a,s of last nigh!., was down 16, a drop.certainly intermediateterm inscopeand,.again, one which,under- stated damage to the high flyers, which, over the three moriths I lost as much -as haTftneir-vw.ue. – — We think ,. in other words, after all this, the uptrend may be ready to resume, but, to turn to the bad news, we are afraid that those who are looking to a resumption of the heady days of last Fall and Spring are in for a disappointment. Technical work suggests the probability of another one of those markets in which the widows and orphans shall inherit the earth. While the glamourous Over-The-Coun- ter sector was being ravaged, the stodgy Dow-Jones Utilities, just to pick a good example of what has been going on, continued to move to new high territory, and most patterns in this industry, together with other relatively defensive industries such as banks, foods, etc., appear to suggest continued higher levels. Aggressive traders, in short, will probably feel uncomfortable with most of the stocks now dis- playing upside leadership. As far as the bloodied speculative sector of the list is concerned there will probably be, if any sustained market upswing gets underway, a short-term rebound, but still, we suspect, nothing more than that. It will probably, moreover, be due solely to the'inherent volatility of these stocks, rather than any Significant change in trend. Second-tier issues have had their patterns sufficiently destroyed so as to make a long period of rebasing necessary and should possess attraction only as trading vehicles for some time to come. In other words, while the probabilities for a firmer market appear to be distinctly improved, se- lectivity is likely to become a far more significant factor than was the case in the bull market's earlier, more robust stage. There remain, meanwhile, a few disturbing factors, notably the breadth divergence we have been harping on in this space for the past few weeks plus the stalling of the Dow-Jones Trans- portation Averages at around the 590 level. We have emphasized, however, in discussing the breadth divergence — and the same thing holds true of the Transport Index's failure to conf.irm — that it constitutes no particular reason for immediate bearishness. If the current divergence proves to be the final one of this bull market, an eventuality quite possible buLbY.no meanscertain, we have demonstra- ted that such divergences have led the market by anywhere from seven months to two and one-half years. Seven months from September, when the divergence first occurred, takes us into March-April, 1984 at a minimum. By that time the divergence may well have been erased, and we will be in a position to start the clock again. If it has not been erased, some fairly important decisions will have to be made next Spring, but those decisions are hardly germane to the present problem. That problem, it seems to us, lies in adjusting portfolios to participate in and possibly q,utperform what may well be a fairly strong market between now and early next year. Even for the most aggres- sive investor, it seems to us, the watchword in such an adjustment should be quality, for it is quite Clearly Investment-grade stocks that are at the moment showing the best technical action. AWT .rs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m. ) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (10/13/83) 1260.57 169.62 2038.43 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or epress!on 01 opmu)fI or any other matler herein contained IS or IS to be deemed to be, directly Of Indirectly an offer or the soliCitation of an oller 10 buyor sell any secunly referred to or mentioned The matter 15 presented merely for Ihe convenience of the subscnber While we believe the sources of our mforma\!on to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor olthe statements made herem Any action 10 be taken by the subscnber Should be based on hiS own Invesllgallon and mformatlon Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, as a corporallon and Its olllcers Or employees, may now nave, or may later lale, poSlltons or1rades m respecllo any securities mentioned mIniS or any fulure Issue and such pOSition may !.If! dlflerenl1rom any views nOwor hereal\erexprcssed in thlsol any other Issue Delatleld, Haf\'ey Tabeil inc, which IS regIstered With the SEC as an Investment advisor, may give advice to Its mvestment adVISOry and other cuslomers Independentiy of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further mlormallon on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

– TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 October 21, 1983 Sharp drops on Tuesday and Wednesday were produced by unexpected lower earnings for Digital Equipmentan!,Aec'!!1,!,e.lphp'l.e-.T.be,,!eJ!!.l.,,,cn heN.xSEl'Ll's sy!!!;!', bJ!,t ven gre!,er in the….,… -,.J,,d Over-The-Counter market. As we reported at some length last week, a large portion 'of the market's recent weakness has taken place in that sector. While the Dow is only about 2 below new highs, reached just two weeks ago, the NASDAQ Industrial Index peaked on June 24 at 408.4 and closed, Wednesday at 327.8, an almost 20 drop, reaching full-scale bear market proportions. It is interesting to try to place this decline into longer-term perspective, which we attempt to do in the chart below. The two upper lines are the Dow and the NASDAQ Index, and the lower line is the ratio of the two which, of course, moves upward when OTC issues are outperforming the Dow and vice-versa. I ''''1 INDu,rIRL RVRALt ore INDUSTRI,.N tv OTC stocks first diverged from the NYSE market in 1976. While listed stocks went through a full-scale bear market ending in Spring, 1978, OTC issues trended irregularly upward, producing a sharp rising relative-strength line. Furthermore, in the 1978-1980 basing stage, they continued to move ahead with violent but short corrections in 1978 and 1980. They then joined in the final stage of the 1978-1981 bull market. Thus, when one looks at the OTC-DJIA ratio,it shows an almost unbroken bull market running from the mid-1970's through April, 1981, at which point the OTC Index joined in the Dow's decline. The spectacular advance from August, 1982 to June, 1983 brought the ratio to new peaks.' As the chart shows, another out-of-gear phase has set in. Since mid-summer, the Dow has trended sideways, and OTC stocks have collapsed. Herewith a few thoughts on the nature and perman- ence of that collapse. '' . Measured by that ratio; the decline is already greater than 'either the 1978 or 1980 drops and is – .. approaching the magnitude of the multiphase 1982-1983 decline. The relative line haS already returned to its peak-1981 levels. On May I, 1981, the Dow was at 995 and the OTC Index 271. The purChaser of the Dow therefore, has a greater profit today. That 1981 peak seems a logical stopping place, if only temporary, for the recent OTC bloodbath. It will be the nature of any subsequent rally that will provide an important clue as to the persistence of relative OTC weakness. A rally which topped out shortly, within a month or so, would be evidence of the start of a long decline, which might carry as far as the 1983 low on a relative basis. It is this possibility, that recent OTC deterioration may be long-term, which led us, last week, to recommend an emphasis on quality in stock selection. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1252.64 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 167.08 Cumulative Index (10/20/83) 2006.51 No statement or expression 01 opinion or any other matter herem contamed IS, or IS to be deemed to be directly Of Indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any secunty referred to o' mentioned The maIler IS presented merely for the convenience of the 5ubscnber White we believe the sources 01 our Informatton to be rehabIe, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thercof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber ShoUld be based on hiS own Investlgahon and information Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may tater take, poSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views nowor hereafter expressed rn thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, which IS registered With the SECas an Investment adVisor, may give advice to Its !nvestment adVisory and other customers rndependently of any statements made In this or In any other Issue Further rnformatlOnon any security mentioned herem IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS,INC (609) 924-9660 October 28, 1983 ,,,Wall Street…pends an incredible amount of time and money exploring so-called fundamental factors – T in an-effortto preolct stock price action. Learned'treatrsesFe''Written .ontnnookfor–tlie,-economy- and hoards of analysts spend countless hours visiting and researching individual companies in an attempt to determine the earnings prospects for those companies. We have no quarrel with the basic premise behind all this activity. It is axiomatic that, in the long run, the general level of stock prices is a function of the health of the economy and that, in that same long run, earnings growth will tend to determine the course of a stock's price. Lord Keynes, however, reminded us that in the long run we are all dead, and the extent to which these factors impact the course of prices in the short-to-interme- diste term is at least open to question, as is the efficiency of the predictive process. We are all fami- liar with the recent instances of earnings reports which totally surprised the analytical community which was supposed to be intimately familiar with the companies involved and with the consequent drastic effects on the prices of the stocks in question. Paradoxically, there is some evidence that stock prices may, themselves, be fairly effiClent predictors of the factors which are supposed to predict them. The National Bureau of Economic Research, for example, is sufficiently impressed with the ability of the market to predict the economy to include the change in the S & P 500-Stock Index as a component of Its index of leadin g economic indicators. As technicians, of course, it is our task to look at stock prices themselves. and. at most times. when one observes the technical action of a wide range of stocks, there will exist a mix of those stocks WhICh are technically attractive and those which are relatively unattractive. It is impossible, during the course of this process, not to observe groups of issues having some sort of common factor either acting well Or acting poorly. It is also difficult not to infer from such an observation that the market, or, if you will, the collectivity of stock buyers, is in effect making a prediction about certain aspects of the economy. The market, in other words, is often making its own statement about what it believes the fundamentals to be. It is not always correct in such beliefs. Paul Samuelson made the immortal remark at one point 1'h'aoILihe..marlet.hadpredicted!)inLOJlLof..the1IlsL9jx recessions. NOJletheless, in m!!'!yy.ears of look- ing at stock prices, we have come to the conclusion that the market's record as a predictor, is often — rather good. A few subjective thoughts, therefore, are herewith offeredon what the stock market is Hsaying'! at the moment. We have noted in this space the recent relatively good behavior of utilites and other capital-in- tensive, interest-sensitiv!f2 stocks. We suspect that a statement may be being made here that the mar- ket expects lower interest rates over the long term and, at least, not too mucb higher rates over the shorter term. It is also possible to contrast the utilities' excellent technical behavior with the potentially disastrous technical patterns existing in many natural-resource issues .. particularly metals and most partIcularly precious metals. It is also possible to factor into this equation the excellent technical behavior of the food r,roup, purchasors of commodities and sellers to the general public. Out of all of this there emerges, it seems to us, the fact that the stock market expects a continued low rate of infla- tion and that the actual change in the Consumer Price Index over the next year or so should, at the worst, approximate the consensus forecast, which looks for inflation to rise to the 5-6 level as recovery progresses. At best, inflation might wind up lower than that. Another factor in current technical behavior which cannot escape notice is the general attractive- ness of large numbers of companies who earn goodly percentages of their income abroad. The strength of the U.S. dollar relative to foreign currencies (it has flattened out lately) has been a staple of finan- cial news over the past year. Lower relative interest rates may erode at least some of that strength and cause companies with large components of foreign earnings to possess investment attraction. The tendency toward favorable patterns for interest-sensitive stocks does not extent! to the money-center banks most of which seem to indicate over the intermediate term lower although not disastrously lower, prices. This would suggest that the ongoing problem of loans to Third-World coun- tries is likely to continue visible, in the months ahead. The fact that the distributional tops are not major, though, might further suggest that, despite its visibility, the problem is susceptible to solution in one form or another. – The market, it seems to us, is saying a number of other things. It seems, for example, to have a great deal of faith in continued economic recovery since, as a whole, smokestack issues seem to find themselves I at worst, in the advanced stages of base formations and, at best J in the course of on- going uptrends. It seems to be indicating, moreover J that the current well-advertised problems in cert- ain areas of the computer /electronics industry are not transitory, and that the shakeout in this industry is lIkely to continue. Shakeouts inevitably produce survivors, however, and the healthy minority of strong technical patterns in the industry may be pointing at the identities of those survivors. It is. of course. a matter of individual preference as to how much weight one wishes to place on these implicit predictions being made by stock-price action. None of them seerIS to us to be fundament- ally impausible. It win be interesting to see how many are borne out. AWT rs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1242.48 S & P Composite (12 00 p. m.) 164.81 Cumulative Index (10/27/83) 1977.17 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or eApresslon of Opinion or any other ma1ler herem contained IS, or Is to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an oller or the Solicitation of an offer to buyorse!l any security referred to or mentioned The matter Is presented merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we beheyethe sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereol nor of the staJementsmade herem Any acllon 10 be laken by the subSCriber should be based on hIS own investIgatIon and rnformafloll (Mla/lold HarvEly Tabel! Inc as a corporation and Its oHlcels or employees, may now haye, or may later take, posllions or trades In respect to any seCUrities mentioned In thIS or any future Issue, nd such position my be dltferenl trom any Ylews nowor hereafter epressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVIsor, may give advice to ItS Investment adVISOry and olher customers Indopondonlly 01 any statements made m thrs or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herem IS available on reQuest