Viewing Year: 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 14, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 14, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - October 14, 1983
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 October 14, 1983 The resumption of the march to new bull-market highs, a feature of the last two weeks of trad- ing, was not without its redeeming qualities. Particularly impressive was the action of Thursday, 'October ;6jwIYen71;tn'li'-point advance–,;nthe– Dow'to'1lnewpeakof;1268JlO 'Jeaturet-ail-millio,,! 'shares- -, ' changing hands. the best volume level since last June. Friday's session tacked on another three points, and even the Monday seSSIOn, where volume dried up to 67 million shares, probably under the influence of the bank holiday, displayed some positive tendencies, as the market sold off sharply in early-morning trading and was able to initiate a convincing mid-day reversal, even to the extent of turning what had been sharply negative breadth early in the day to positive breadth by the closing bell. The session also produced new highs in the S & P 500 and NYSE indic.es, indicators, which had hitherto' been lagging the DJIA. The lack of follow-through over the next three days, particularly Tuesday's H)-point decline, was disappointing but well within the context of recent trading patterns, where most short-term upward moves have required some fairly substantial consolidation. .L– To report the good news first, we think the market's ability to show upside strength over the past fortnight tends to suggest a reinterpretation of what has been happening over the Summer of 1983. It now becomes at least plausible that this entire process, although the Dow was never down more than 6 at worst, constitutes a correction of intermediate-term proportions and, more importantly, one of sufficient magnitude to lay the groundwork for further assaults on new high territory. Apparently dur- ing the three'month period, as upside progress in the averages simpiy staiied, a rotating correction' pro- cess in different stocks at different times was sufficient to wring out whatever excess optimism had been built into stock prices as of last Spring. This is particularly exemplified in the action since June in the Over-The-Counter market. The high in the NASDAQ Industrial Index was 408 on June 14, and at that point it had completed an advance of over 130 from its August, 1982 low, better than twice the gains posted by the Dow and the S & P 500. However, the performance of the Index itself really understates what went on over a nine'month period in the frothier areas of OTC trading where 400-500 gains were as much the rule as the exception. The OTC Index continued to post new lows through yesterday and, I–t—a,s of last nigh!., was down 16, a drop.certainly intermediateterm inscopeand,.again, one which,under- stated damage to the high flyers, which, over the three moriths I lost as much -as haTftneir-vw.ue. – — We think ,. in other words, after all this, the uptrend may be ready to resume, but, to turn to the bad news, we are afraid that those who are looking to a resumption of the heady days of last Fall and Spring are in for a disappointment. Technical work suggests the probability of another one of those markets in which the widows and orphans shall inherit the earth. While the glamourous Over-The-Coun- ter sector was being ravaged, the stodgy Dow-Jones Utilities, just to pick a good example of what has been going on, continued to move to new high territory, and most patterns in this industry, together with other relatively defensive industries such as banks, foods, etc., appear to suggest continued higher levels. Aggressive traders, in short, will probably feel uncomfortable with most of the stocks now dis- playing upside leadership. As far as the bloodied speculative sector of the list is concerned there will probably be, if any sustained market upswing gets underway, a short-term rebound, but still, we suspect, nothing more than that. It will probably, moreover, be due solely to the'inherent volatility of these stocks, rather than any Significant change in trend. Second-tier issues have had their patterns sufficiently destroyed so as to make a long period of rebasing necessary and should possess attraction only as trading vehicles for some time to come. In other words, while the probabilities for a firmer market appear to be distinctly improved, se- lectivity is likely to become a far more significant factor than was the case in the bull market's earlier, more robust stage. There remain, meanwhile, a few disturbing factors, notably the breadth divergence we have been harping on in this space for the past few weeks plus the stalling of the Dow-Jones Trans- portation Averages at around the 590 level. We have emphasized, however, in discussing the breadth divergence — and the same thing holds true of the Transport Index's failure to conf.irm — that it constitutes no particular reason for immediate bearishness. If the current divergence proves to be the final one of this bull market, an eventuality quite possible buLbY.no meanscertain, we have demonstra- ted that such divergences have led the market by anywhere from seven months to two and one-half years. Seven months from September, when the divergence first occurred, takes us into March-April, 1984 at a minimum. By that time the divergence may well have been erased, and we will be in a position to start the clock again. If it has not been erased, some fairly important decisions will have to be made next Spring, but those decisions are hardly germane to the present problem. That problem, it seems to us, lies in adjusting portfolios to participate in and possibly q,utperform what may well be a fairly strong market between now and early next year. Even for the most aggres- sive investor, it seems to us, the watchword in such an adjustment should be quality, for it is quite Clearly Investment-grade stocks that are at the moment showing the best technical action. AWT .rs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m. ) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (10/13/83) 1260.57 169.62 2038.43 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or epress!on 01 opmu)fI or any other matler herein contained IS or IS to be deemed to be, directly Of Indirectly an offer or the soliCitation of an oller 10 buyor sell any secunly referred to or mentioned The matter 15 presented merely for Ihe convenience of the subscnber While we believe the sources of our mforma\!on to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor olthe statements made herem Any action 10 be taken by the subscnber Should be based on hiS own Invesllgallon and mformatlon Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, as a corporallon and Its olllcers Or employees, may now nave, or may later lale, poSlltons or1rades m respecllo any securities mentioned mIniS or any fulure Issue and such pOSition may !.If! dlflerenl1rom any views nOwor hereal\erexprcssed in thlsol any other Issue Delatleld, Haf\'ey Tabeil inc, which IS regIstered With the SEC as an Investment advisor, may give advice to Its mvestment adVISOry and other cuslomers Independentiy of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further mlormallon on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 21, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 21, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - October 21, 1983
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– TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 October 21, 1983 Sharp drops on Tuesday and Wednesday were produced by unexpected lower earnings for Digital Equipmentan!,Aec'!!1,!,e.lphp'l.e-.T.be,,!eJ!!.l.,,,cn heN.xSEl'Ll's sy!!!;!', bJ!,t ven gre!,er in the….,… -,.J,,d Over-The-Counter market. As we reported at some length last week, a large portion 'of the market's recent weakness has taken place in that sector. While the Dow is only about 2 below new highs, reached just two weeks ago, the NASDAQ Industrial Index peaked on June 24 at 408.4 and closed, Wednesday at 327.8, an almost 20 drop, reaching full-scale bear market proportions. It is interesting to try to place this decline into longer-term perspective, which we attempt to do in the chart below. The two upper lines are the Dow and the NASDAQ Index, and the lower line is the ratio of the two which, of course, moves upward when OTC issues are outperforming the Dow and vice-versa. I ''''1 INDu,rIRL RVRALt ore INDUSTRI,.N tv OTC stocks first diverged from the NYSE market in 1976. While listed stocks went through a full-scale bear market ending in Spring, 1978, OTC issues trended irregularly upward, producing a sharp rising relative-strength line. Furthermore, in the 1978-1980 basing stage, they continued to move ahead with violent but short corrections in 1978 and 1980. They then joined in the final stage of the 1978-1981 bull market. Thus, when one looks at the OTC-DJIA ratio,it shows an almost unbroken bull market running from the mid-1970's through April, 1981, at which point the OTC Index joined in the Dow's decline. The spectacular advance from August, 1982 to June, 1983 brought the ratio to new peaks.' As the chart shows, another out-of-gear phase has set in. Since mid-summer, the Dow has trended sideways, and OTC stocks have collapsed. Herewith a few thoughts on the nature and perman- ence of that collapse. '' . Measured by that ratio; the decline is already greater than 'either the 1978 or 1980 drops and is – .. approaching the magnitude of the multiphase 1982-1983 decline. The relative line haS already returned to its peak-1981 levels. On May I, 1981, the Dow was at 995 and the OTC Index 271. The purChaser of the Dow therefore, has a greater profit today. That 1981 peak seems a logical stopping place, if only temporary, for the recent OTC bloodbath. It will be the nature of any subsequent rally that will provide an important clue as to the persistence of relative OTC weakness. A rally which topped out shortly, within a month or so, would be evidence of the start of a long decline, which might carry as far as the 1983 low on a relative basis. It is this possibility, that recent OTC deterioration may be long-term, which led us, last week, to recommend an emphasis on quality in stock selection. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1252.64 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 167.08 Cumulative Index (10/20/83) 2006.51 No statement or expression 01 opinion or any other matter herem contamed IS, or IS to be deemed to be directly Of Indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any secunty referred to o' mentioned The maIler IS presented merely for the convenience of the 5ubscnber White we believe the sources 01 our Informatton to be rehabIe, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thercof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber ShoUld be based on hiS own Investlgahon and information Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may tater take, poSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views nowor hereafter expressed rn thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, which IS registered With the SECas an Investment adVisor, may give advice to Its !nvestment adVisory and other customers rndependently of any statements made In this or In any other Issue Further rnformatlOnon any security mentioned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 28, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 28, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - October 28, 1983
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS,INC (609) 924-9660 October 28, 1983 ,,,Wall Street…pends an incredible amount of time and money exploring so-called fundamental factors – T in an-effortto preolct stock price action. Learned'treatrsesFe''Written .ontnnookfor–tlie,-economy- and hoards of analysts spend countless hours visiting and researching individual companies in an attempt to determine the earnings prospects for those companies. We have no quarrel with the basic premise behind all this activity. It is axiomatic that, in the long run, the general level of stock prices is a function of the health of the economy and that, in that same long run, earnings growth will tend to determine the course of a stock's price. Lord Keynes, however, reminded us that in the long run we are all dead, and the extent to which these factors impact the course of prices in the short-to-interme- diste term is at least open to question, as is the efficiency of the predictive process. We are all fami- liar with the recent instances of earnings reports which totally surprised the analytical community which was supposed to be intimately familiar with the companies involved and with the consequent drastic effects on the prices of the stocks in question. Paradoxically, there is some evidence that stock prices may, themselves, be fairly effiClent predictors of the factors which are supposed to predict them. The National Bureau of Economic Research, for example, is sufficiently impressed with the ability of the market to predict the economy to include the change in the S & P 500-Stock Index as a component of Its index of leadin g economic indicators. As technicians, of course, it is our task to look at stock prices themselves. and. at most times. when one observes the technical action of a wide range of stocks, there will exist a mix of those stocks WhICh are technically attractive and those which are relatively unattractive. It is impossible, during the course of this process, not to observe groups of issues having some sort of common factor either acting well Or acting poorly. It is also difficult not to infer from such an observation that the market, or, if you will, the collectivity of stock buyers, is in effect making a prediction about certain aspects of the economy. The market, in other words, is often making its own statement about what it believes the fundamentals to be. It is not always correct in such beliefs. Paul Samuelson made the immortal remark at one point 1'h'aoILihe..marlet.hadpredicted!)inLOJlLof..the1IlsL9jx recessions. NOJletheless, in m!!'!yy.ears of look- ing at stock prices, we have come to the conclusion that the market's record as a predictor, is often — rather good. A few subjective thoughts, therefore, are herewith offeredon what the stock market is Hsaying'! at the moment. We have noted in this space the recent relatively good behavior of utilites and other capital-in- tensive, interest-sensitiv!f2 stocks. We suspect that a statement may be being made here that the mar- ket expects lower interest rates over the long term and, at least, not too mucb higher rates over the shorter term. It is also possible to contrast the utilities' excellent technical behavior with the potentially disastrous technical patterns existing in many natural-resource issues .. particularly metals and most partIcularly precious metals. It is also possible to factor into this equation the excellent technical behavior of the food r,roup, purchasors of commodities and sellers to the general public. Out of all of this there emerges, it seems to us, the fact that the stock market expects a continued low rate of infla- tion and that the actual change in the Consumer Price Index over the next year or so should, at the worst, approximate the consensus forecast, which looks for inflation to rise to the 5-6 level as recovery progresses. At best, inflation might wind up lower than that. Another factor in current technical behavior which cannot escape notice is the general attractive- ness of large numbers of companies who earn goodly percentages of their income abroad. The strength of the U.S. dollar relative to foreign currencies (it has flattened out lately) has been a staple of finan- cial news over the past year. Lower relative interest rates may erode at least some of that strength and cause companies with large components of foreign earnings to possess investment attraction. The tendency toward favorable patterns for interest-sensitive stocks does not extent! to the money-center banks most of which seem to indicate over the intermediate term lower although not disastrously lower, prices. This would suggest that the ongoing problem of loans to Third-World coun- tries is likely to continue visible, in the months ahead. The fact that the distributional tops are not major, though, might further suggest that, despite its visibility, the problem is susceptible to solution in one form or another. – The market, it seems to us, is saying a number of other things. It seems, for example, to have a great deal of faith in continued economic recovery since, as a whole, smokestack issues seem to find themselves I at worst, in the advanced stages of base formations and, at best J in the course of on- going uptrends. It seems to be indicating, moreover J that the current well-advertised problems in cert- ain areas of the computer /electronics industry are not transitory, and that the shakeout in this industry is lIkely to continue. Shakeouts inevitably produce survivors, however, and the healthy minority of strong technical patterns in the industry may be pointing at the identities of those survivors. It is. of course. a matter of individual preference as to how much weight one wishes to place on these implicit predictions being made by stock-price action. None of them seerIS to us to be fundament- ally impausible. It win be interesting to see how many are borne out. AWT rs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1242.48 S & P Composite (12 00 p. m.) 164.81 Cumulative Index (10/27/83) 1977.17 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or eApresslon of Opinion or any other ma1ler herem contained IS, or Is to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an oller or the Solicitation of an offer to buyorse!l any security referred to or mentioned The matter Is presented merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we beheyethe sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereol nor of the staJementsmade herem Any acllon 10 be laken by the subSCriber should be based on hIS own investIgatIon and rnformafloll (Mla/lold HarvEly Tabel! Inc as a corporation and Its oHlcels or employees, may now haye, or may later take, posllions or trades In respect to any seCUrities mentioned In thIS or any future Issue, nd such position my be dltferenl trom any Ylews nowor hereafter epressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVIsor, may give advice to ItS Investment adVISOry and olher customers Indopondonlly 01 any statements made m thrs or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herem IS available on reQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 04, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 04, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - November 04, 1983
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.————————- – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 , …— – . November 4, 1983 -Most-investors -areHware 'of' the-superior 'performanceof'quality-stocks-over-l-ecenC —I ' months. We conducted a study this week in an attempt to pinpoint precisely where this super- ior performance might be occurring. We studied the price action of 1494 stocks over 3b-week and l3-week periods. We computed the average change for all these stocks and then divided them into five groups or quintiles based on percentage price performance. Needless to say, the performance of individual issues varied widely, For 30 weeks, the average stock was up 4.82 and for 13 weeks, the average performance was a 4,19 decline. The best performers, however, averaged a 42 gain for 30 weeks and a 16 gain for 13 weeks. The worst perform- ers, by contrast, averaged a 25 decline for both periods. We then took various subsets of the list, and computed the average performance in those subsets and the quintile for the over- all market into which each stock in the subset fell. The results are summarized in the table below. Total Avs Q U 1 N T I L E All! QUINTILE Stocs I. Ch!J 1 2 3 4 5 I. eh 1 2 3 4 5 —— All Stocks 1494 4.82 299 299 299 299 298 – 4.19 299 299 299 299 298 NYSE Stocks 1157 6.55 3 253 254 238 189 – 1. 88. 261 271 243 214 168 ASE Stocks OTe Stocks 140 3.66 197 – 4.00 37 21 14 25 43 -11.65 15 7 19 47 52 39 25 31 36 66 -11.74 23 21 37 38 78 OJIA Stocks 30 11.83 8 6 8 6 2 4.50 11 6 10 2 1 SiP 500 All S&P 500 7.06 98 112 119 93 78 0.63 136 110 129 70 51 – – -..- – To–1-00-S-&P-1-00A., 1-6-1-4-2-1-28-.23L40.5721 2!1361.3 6 Lower 400 SiP 400 7.80 Caltal EQuip, 91 6.72 EnerS'tI 34 14.41 84 91 91 70 64 0.65 115 86 93 57 45 -16 19 23 18 15 1 t 02 14 25 22 19 11 9 9 13 3 0 – 1.57 3 6 18 3 4 Natural Res. 48 8t4 11 11 9 11 6 0.76 16 9 11 7 5 Consumer Dur. 42 8.66 15 7 3 5 12 1.18 15 8 6 10 3 Utl1itll.S 41 14.99 9 17 11 3 1 8.09 19 17 4 1 0 Cons. Non-Dur. 172 5.71 Financial 44 – !.45 Transortatlon 20 9.83 26 39 45 39 23 1.53 48 38 51 19 16 3 6 8 11 16 – 3.76 11 3 13 9 8 8 2 4 2 4 – 2.44 8 4 4 2 2 NYSE-Non-S&P 675 6.15 139 125 135 154 124 – 3.66 129 162 120 124 120 As expected, NYSE stocks significantly outperformed ASE and OTC stocks, OTC issues actually declined over 30 weeks, and a third of them were in the worst performing category, The extent to which the 30 Dow-Jones issues outperformed the rest of the list was also somewhat surprising. Their 3D-week gain was two and one-half times as great as the entire list, and they were up significantly over the l3-week period. –.- – Strangely enough, this superior performance was not shared by the top 100 stocks in the S & P 500. These issues underperformed all S & P issues for 30 weeks, although their recent performance has been a bit better. The lower 400 issues in the S & P actually outperformed the top-tier stocks. We also tabulated the performance of NYSE issues not in the S & P, and -this performance for 30 weeks at least. was,in line wit!! !he market. The table also shows the performance of various S & P stocks divided into economic sectors. In this category, the standout performers are the Energy and Utility groups over 3D-week periods while Financial issues have distmguished themselves by their relative weakness. The utllities' strength continued over the most recent period, but strength in energy stoCk/. f decreased. p' AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL !5' DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) 1220.63 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 16283 Cumulative Index (11/3/83) 1968.81 No statement or eypreSSlon of opinion or any other matter herem contained 15 or IS to be deemed to be directly or Indirectly, an oiler or the soliCitation 01 an oller to buy or sell any security referred toor mentioned The mailer IS presented merely lor the convemence of the subscriber While we oellevethe sources 01 our Informallon to bereifable, we Inno way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements made herein Any actIOn 10 be taken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Delatlald, Harvey, labell Inc, as a corporatIOn and lIs officers or employees may now have, or may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to any securilles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be dillerent from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Detafleld Harvey, Tabel! Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment advisory and other customers Independenlly of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further mformahon on any security mentioned herem Is available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 11, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 11, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - November 11, 1983
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-..'- – – – – – – – – – – , . – , ,,F '1 . TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 . – . , November 11, 1983 Any-strueture ,(bmaH…….how–large-and-complexean be'brokenowrralmos1infinitely– into individual components. This applies tothe stock market, where ft is a truism that long- term moves can be separated into a series of short-term rallies and declines. We find our- selves. at the moment, 15 months into the bull market which began on August 12, 1982. Ap- plying a filter technique with a filter threshold of a bit over 3 to that market, we find that it can be broken into 20 separate components, 10 short-term rallies and 10 short-term declines. What is interesting is that it requires only miniscule changes in the nature of these components to produce quite a drastic alteration in the long-run picture. Between August, 1982 and May of this year, the Dow advanced 58 over some nine months. For the six months from May 6 through Monday, the short-term low to date, it was actually down slightly. It is worthwhile looking at the change in the nature of the short-term swings that have produced this rather dramatic reversal of market behavior. Some of the relevant statistics are summar- ized in the table below. Advances Advances Declines Declines Number of Moves 8/12/82-5/6/83 5/6-11/7/83 8/12/82-5/6/83 5/6-11/7/83 73 6 4 Average Change 12.07 6.75 -5.26 -5.10 Largest Change 20.32 10.45 -6.99 -6.48 Average Length-Trading Days 20 18 8 18 Longest Length-Trading Days 72 44 14 22 Change Entire Period 58,65 – 1. 44 58.65 -1. 44 Length – Entire Period 186 128 186 128 The upswing from last August to this May lasted 186 trading days and consisted of seven ,advancesandixdecline8-.-he ..average4vanee-was .. 12 ev-trading-days. T-helargestc–''-ll- was the take-off rally of August 9, and the longest the 72-day advance from January through May of this year. The declining phases during this period averaged 5 and lasted for a mean of eight days. This whole structure combined to produce one of the more dynamic bull markets in history. The components did not have to alter greatly to produce a market that has done nothing for six months. What has happened is that the average rise in the three advancing phases since May has been cut in half, to 6.75, although the average length of advancing phases has remained about the same. Interestingly enough, the average decline for the four short-term drops since May has been less than the average decline prior to May, only 5.1. The most significant change is that the decline phases have lasted longer. The Dow declinEd for 22 days from May 6 through June 8, 21 days from June 16 to July 18, 9 days from July 26 to August 8, and, to date, 20 days from October 10 through Monday. While declines in the bull market's early stage were often over in a bit more than a week, recent ones have tended to last almost a month. The change in market environment, therefore, has consisted of a switch to smaller, although not necessarily shorter, advances and longer, although not necessarily deeper, de- clines. This small change has produced the switch from a dynamic bull to a sideways market. What is perhaps relevant over the short term is that a bottom on Monday of this week would fit the decline ended on that date squarely into the context of its three predecessors since May. It would wind up being 20 days long, involving a 5.4 drop. Many short-term indicators had, at some stage of the game, reached levels associated with the bottoms of the last three declines and, moreover, have acted somewhat better on the recent fall than was the case last August. Indeed, despite continued declines in the Dow, downside volume, for . example, peaked on October 31 and has been declining noticably ever since, Declines. meas- ured on a 10-day basis. topped out on October 24 and have also been improving since that time, In other words, a short-term rally attempt from current levels would be entirely consist- ent with the market environment we have seen since last May. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1242.17 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 164.40 Cumulative Index (11/10/83 1968.54 No statement or e)'pres5lon 01 oplfllon or any other matter herem contained IS or 15 to be deemed to be, directly or mdlrec1ly, an offer or the soliCltalion of an oHerto buy or sell any secunty referred to or mentlonlW lhe matter IS presented merely for the Convenience 01 the subSCriber White we believe the sources of our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereat nor of the statements made herem Any action to betaken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and mlormatlon Delafield, Harvey, label! Inc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have or may later take poSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In this or any future Issue and such POSition may be ddterent from any VieWS now or hereafter elfpressed m thl!; or any other Issue Delafield Harvey. labell Inc which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment advisor, may Qlve advice to Its mvestmen! adl'lsory and omer customers mdependently 01 any statements made In thiS or In an. other Issue Further Informal Ion on any security mentl(lned herein IS available on request ………. , .u .- .'

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 18, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 18, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - November 18, 1983
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r——————————————————————————————————————, . TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC, MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924,9660 November 18, 1983 — – It.is aasic..p.ur.poseof.,this-lettmmen t,onc,ul'l'!,ntdev.elopments,in…seitiesmarkets, and, judging by the column inches of newsprint'devoted tothe subject,' there' has been no recent such development of any importance other than the forthcoming breakup of the American Telephone & Telegraph Company. For the benefit of those who have spent the last two years in the Sahara desert. that company will, in mid-February, distribute to its shareholders shares of seven new operating companies, one-tenth of a share of each company for each Telephone share now held. Trading on a when-issued basis in the seven new companies, plus the new AT&T, will begin on Monday. The paper work that has been generated by all this and the number of people that will be affected by it both probably set records. Telephone has 938 million shares outstanding, held by some 3.1 million separate shareholders, at a current market value of some 60 billion. This size has lead to a mini-growth-industry engaged in assessing the individual values of the new compon- ents, an industry that will undoubtedly burgeon now that dividend rates and projected operating figures for the new companies were released on Wednesday. In this respect, the appropriate func- tion of this letter is a bit different. We are technicians, and we would not presume to quibble with our fundamentalist colleagues in respect to their analysis of relative values of the entitites involved. It is, however J our function to comment on numbers, and, since the issue at hand involves some rather large ones, we will assay such a comment. Among the numbers that have been floating around are some rather astronomical estimates of the projected increase in New York Stock Exchange trading volume as a result of the breakup. These projections run as high as 15. It is difficult for us to justify these figures. For the year ended this Wednesday, the average volume k AT&T common has been 1,192 million shares daily, some 1. 43 of total NYSE volume. The breakup will increase shares outstanding by 70. A 70 increase in Telephone's ,historic trading volume.would.l'roduce 834,000 shares of additional trading. This is an increase of almost exactly 1. Even on Telephone's most active'recen't day, October 19, -. I— it accounted only for 5! of total NYSE volume. Increasing this by 70 would produce a total volume rise of somewhere in the 3 range. . . Let us put it another way. Total trading volume in AT &T over the past year has been some 304 million shares. A 70 increase would produce an additional 212 million. Let us assume (unreal- istically) that, in addition to this increase, every single holder of newly-distributed shares decided to sell them in the next 12 months. This would produce 656 million more shares of volume for a total of 868 million shares. That number is a bit over 4 of total NYSE volume over the past year. There is, moreover, some real evidence that much of the anticipated volume increase in Telephone may already have taken place. The breakup has, of course ,been essentially a fait accompli since January, 1982. In the past 12 months Telephone has traded 2.66 per month of its total shares outstanding. This number is 62 of the NYSE average of 4.3. For the 1980-1982 period, Telephone's turnover ratio as a percentage of the NYSE turnover ratio averaged between 41 and 45. For prior years it was considerably lower. This would suggest that some portion of the portfolio adjustments to be made as a result of the breakup have already transpired. A number of other factors mitigate agalnst a sharp increase in volume. One is the profile of the typical Telephone shareholder. As noted above, there are 3.1 million such. producing an average holding of 298 shares with a market value of 18,774. This is in contrast with, for example, IBM, where the average holding of an individual shareholder is worth over 100,000. These are, in other words, individuals who have demonstrated an ongoing loyalty to the company, and large numbers may elect simply to hold their shares or, alter,natively, invest in Humpty-Dumpty funds. Neither course of action will produce any volume increase. Shareholders may also adjust their holdings by an option offered through the company, and, since it is necessary to hold 1000 shares of the present Telephone in order to receive round lots of the new stocks, many will make such .. adjustments via the odd-lot market. These latter two instances will, of course, produce some in- crease in round-lot trading but, to a great extent, activity in those cases will be netted out internally. There will, of course, be a short-term increase in the level of trading by professionals as the market performs the necessary process of sorting out the relative values of the new enterprises. Such trading may produce some falrly significant short-term bulges in the week ahead. It would nonetheless seem to us that, despite the magnitude of the breakup, the financial community will adjust to it without a great deal of alteration in business as usual' and without the sort of in- crease in trading activity that seem to be widely anticipated. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m. ) 1250.10 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 165.53 Cumulative Index (11117/83) 2008.78 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or expressIon of opinIon or any other matter herem contained Is, or Is to be deemed to be directly or mdlrectly, an oHer orthe soliCItation of an ofter to buyor sell any security referred to or mentIOned The maner IS presented merely lor the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements made herem Any action to be taken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own Investlgallon and Information Delafield, Harvey, laben Inc, as a corporatIOn and liS oilicers or employees may now have or may laler take, positions or trades In respect 10 any securities mentioned In this or any future Issue, and such posllfon may be dllferentlrom any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered WIth the SEC as an Investment adVisor, mayglYe adVIce to lIs Invostment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Inlormatlon on any secuflly mentioned herein Is available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 25, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 25, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - November 25, 1983
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 November 25, 1983 . '.I—Afterpausingduringt.he week-ofNovem ber '14-18.-t.herally..,from-the-N9vember..,.7low-lesumed . agam in fr'aafng early this week with an 18-!,oint advance in the Dow on Monday and a seven point follow-up on Tuesday. We have pointed out in the past that, with no justification that we know o November action tends to be a good predictor of the year ahead, and, since the Dow closed October some 50 points below its current level, November, this year, is likely to be recorded as an upward month. Perhaps even more constructively, there has been a noticable change in market character during the rallying phase which began on November 7. The problem with the market since June, as readers of just about every financial publication including this one have been told until they are sick of hearing about it, has been the dismal action of secondary issues. This action can be summarized in the following table showing key recent levels for five market indicators. June High August Low October High November Low 11122183 DJIA S & P 500 Cumulative Index 1247.40 170.99 2029.72 1163.06 159.18 1922.46 1284.65 172.65 2062.27 1214.84 161.91 1951.14 1275.81 166.84 1997.18 OTC Industrials AMEX Index 408.40 246.38 356.30 226.53 365.30 237.63 313.50 212.43 335.20 221. 02 The market's history since June has consisted of a decline to August, a rally to Ootober, a second decline, which bottomed this month, .nd a tentative rallying phase to date. The action of the first three indicators in the above table (including our own Cumulative Index of all NYSE stocks) has been quite different from that of the latter two averages, representing the more -'-',spCUlatiVl!–.egment-of-the-marketherst-three-indicatorsa1I-madighs–eH-the–i.aHy-into–I- October and, at their November low, held well above their lows of August. Of the three, the Dow, at least, is within an ace of a new high. By contrast, the AMEX and OTC indicators rallied hardly at all from August to October, posted substantive new lows on the recent decline, and, even at today's levels, find themselves below their August low. The Dow, meanwhile, is 100 points above its comparable figure. The following table, however, shows that this action may be changing. It shows the close for the'S & P 500 and the OTC Industrial Index for the 9 days through Tuesday. It also shows the percentage change in each indicator and the difference between the two. The OTC average outperformed the S & P on seven of the nine days, something that has not occurred since June. The net result is that there has now taken place a fairly substantial rally from the November 8 low in the NASDAQ Index 6.92, versus 5.02 in the Dow and 3.14 in the S & P 500. Date S & P 500 Change OTC Inds. Change Differences November 10 November 11 November 14 November 15 November 16 November 17 November 18 November 21 November 22 164.41 166.29 166.58 165.36 166.08 166.13 165.09 166.05 166.84 0.27 1.14 0.17 -0.73 0.44 0.03 -0.63 0.58 0.48 319.30 325.40 328.90 328.40 329.70 331. 70 331. 70 334.00 335.20 1.11 1. 91 1. 08 -0.15 0.46 0.61 0.00 0.69 0.36 0.84 0.77 0.90 0.58 -0.04 0.58 0.63 0.11 -0.12 This relative strength improvement is, without a.doubt, highly tentative but is does constitute the best relative action on the part of Over-the-Counter issues in five months. Certainly this improvement can in no way be taken as a suggestion that the average secondary stock is an attracive buy at this point. It is. however, an indication that, after the severe decline in the speculative sector of the market, a base formation may possibly have begun. Such a formation must inevitably start somewhere, and very often it starts with a reasonably decent rally in short-term relative strength such as the one we have just seen. If the rally is the start of a base in the Over-the-Counter area, such a formation may require some time, time possibly measured m years, and will undoubtedly involve the testing and retesting of the lows recently posted. Nonetheless, the transition of OTC issues from a fullfledged major decline to a base-building phase would remove a dampening force which has been impacting the market ever since mid-summer. AWTkag Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m. ) 1273.87 S & P Composite (12. 00 p. m. ) 166.87 Cumulative Index (11123183) 2024.69 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or expression 01 oplOlon or any other matter herem contained IS or IS to be deemed to be directly or indirectly, an offer or the solicitation of an olfar 10 buyor sell any security referred toO! mentioned The malter IS presented merely forthc convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In nowey represent or guaranteethe eccuracy threof norof the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCflbrshould be based on his own Investigation and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabel1 Inc, as a COlporallon and Its officers or empfoyees, may now have, or may lalerlake, poSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future ISSIJC, and such POSition may be different from any views nowor hereafter e)(pressed In this or any other Issue Delafield Harvey, Tabel! Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment edvlsor, may give adVice to Us investment advisory and o1t1er customers Independentfy of any stafements made In thiS or In any other ISSIJC Further Information on any secullty mentioned herein IS available on reQueSI

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 02, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 02, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - December 02, 1983
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (6091 9249660 ……. ….. .. -…..,……-……,..,., -'December 1983 . . ., …,.., —;.,..-..——-…. 2-, . . -.—-..– . With the Dow moving to a new high, however marginally, early this week, there has be- gun to appear occasional commentary on the Traditional Year-End Rally, along with speculaful that such a rally already might have begun. We confess to a certain proprietary interest in this particular phenomenon, having been writing about it for lonser (some 20 years) than any- one we are aware of, and, as we have shown many times, it is indeed a demonstrable phenom- enon. If it has already begul this year, it will have to be dated from November 7, when the Dow closed at 1214.84, from which level it has since moved ahead without noticable correction. What is the precedent for a year-end rally beginning this early The table below shows the starting months for each of the 57 year-end rallies since 1926. As can be seen, the start of such a rally in November would not be a totally unprecedented phenomenon. It has begun in November 13 times out of 57 and in November or earlier 30 times of 57. Indeed, in one year (1942), it can be defined as having started as early as April, since the average proceeded from that month's low to the end of the year without any correction of as much as 4. On numerous occasions the year-end advance can be dated from mid-summer. Starting Month 57 Year-End Rallies Apr 1 May o Aug Sep 1 4 Dec -1st 10 days Dec-2nd 10 days 6 10 Jun 2 Oct 7 Dec-3rd Ie days 11 Jul 2 Nov 13 Total '57 What is, of course, of current interest is whether an early start for the year-end rally povides.,.any..jndicationoLmaI'ketation…irl.thedllonthst!head.. In gene.rJ!I.Jt would appear to be a mildly bullish factor. Since 1926 the average monthly percentage change for the month of December has been 1.21. ,In those years where the year-end rally began early, (before Dec- ember), the average change has been 3.07!. and there has, furthermore, been only one loss in those 30 years. This is somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy, since an early rally-start implies a rising December, but it is nonetheless interesting. There is, moreover, some evidence that an early-starting rally tends to persist longer in- to the new year. The following table shows the ending month for the previous 57 year-end rallies, broken down by whether those rallies began prior to the month of December or in December. As can be seen, there is a slight tendency for rallies which begin early to persist longer. Of the twelve rallies which persisted into the new year beyond March, ten of them started prior to December in the previous year. By contrast, more thanhalf the rallies which began late ended in January the following year, including the only two cases on record (1976 and 1977) where the year-end rally failed to extend into the new year. Ending Month 57 Year-End Rallies Rally Start Rally Start Bef Dec. Dec. Total Jan 13 15 28 Feb 5 7 12 Mar 2 3 5 Apr 5 0 5 May 2 2 4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Bef Dec. 1 0 1 1 30 Dec. -0 0 0 0 F. Total –1- 0 1 1 57 The longer we can continue in December, therefore, without noticable correction, the stronger the odds become that the 1983-1984 year-end rally must be dated from November 7. This in turn would tend to suggest a reasonably good continuation of that rally into 1984. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) 1274.89 S & P Composite (12 00 p.m.) 166.52 Cumulative Index (12/1/83) 1924.65 No statement or I!KpreSSlon 01 opinion or any other matl(U herem conta!nedls, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly Of mdlrectly, an oller or the soliCitation of an offer to buyr sell any secunly referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience 01 the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our mtormatlon to be rehable, we In no way represent or guaranlee the accuracy thereof nor of fhe statements made herein Any action to be laken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own Invesl!gal!on and Information Delafield, HafV(lY, Tabelt Inc, as a corporation and lis oHlcers or employees, may now have, or may laler take. pOSitions Of trades In respect 10 any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any lulure Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In this or any otner Issue Delafield Harvev, Tabell Inc, which Is regIstered with the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to ItS Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In this or In any other Issue Further Information on any security menlloned herein Is available on reQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 09, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 09, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - December 09, 1983
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 ''' —,.,.—- – . – . …,.,.. — . D.e.c.empftl'9,J- 9Bl. – 'c' or'The' stock'market can be considered on many levels, one' ()'f'-these;levelsbeing 'that spectacle. At those times when it is moving rapidly either up or down, the market, in addition to performing an economic function, serves as an entertainment vehicle, and those of us who are required to comment thereon can function almost as drama critics. Viewed in this light, the performance since June has been, to put it simply, boring, and we would all have been better off walking out after the first-act curtain. The past two weeks have been a dreary replay of the same scene that has been being played out ever since last summer. A newall-time high a week ago Tuesday lasted for exactly one day before the market fell back, and that high has not since been exceeded. This was an even worse performance than the one in June. which saw two consecutive new highs followed by a three-month hiatus and the October experience where three successive new peaks were follow- ed by seven weeks of trading below the high ground. Meanwhile, the attainment of newall-time high territory by the Dow was confirmed by just about nothing else. On the day the high was scored, the Transportation Average, while technically confirming, had reached its peak four days previous. The Dow-Jones Utilities, which had played a standout bit part in the dull action up to early November, were 2.6 below their high on November 29, at 136.99, and have trended lower ever since closing on Tuesday at 133.96. Broad-based indicators have been equally dull. The Standard & Poor's 500 close of 167.91 on November 29 compared to its bull-market high of 172.65, achieved back in early October. The most important nonconfirmation 01 all, that 0; the daily breadth index, continued and 1 – –has .now-been..jneffect.,sinceJ.une16. Ontha!ayth,.))o.jY..,!!losed at 124B…)0 versus a breadt-.-ch,..f–j index at 1099.12. The comparable figures for October 10 were 1284.65 and '1090 26. For '.- – .. November 29 they were 1287.20 and 1085.12. There was, once, a day when the sort of information outlined above would have been al- most proprietary to a few technicians. There are now a great many more members of the tech- nical fraternity, 'and we doubt that there are many serious investors who are not aware, at this stage, that a breadth divergence exists. Fewer may be aware that such divergences often possess extreme lead times and can, equally often, be cancelled well after their first emergence — facts we have taken the trouble to point out in prior issues of this letter. Sorre bright spots exist in the midst of the dullness, although they are something less than blinding sunbursts. Margin debits balances continue to sail ahead to new highs, although this statistic, it must be remembered, is a coincident indicator and can turn down at any time. Nevertheless, the ability of debits to increase in the sideways market since June must be consi- dered encouraging. Many analysts have pointed to the record levels of the short-interest ratio, which has now exceeded twice the average daily volume for the past three months. Taken by itself, this constitutes a highly bullish figure. The problem is that such levels have histOrically been attained after a sharply declining market. A short-interest ratio of over 2.00 with the averages near bull-market peaks is an historically rarer phenomenon and must be examined im some detail, something we intend to do in future issues. A glass may be viewed as either half-empty or half-full, and, taking the optimistic view, even though it is only the Dow components and issues of like quality which are moving ahead, something, at least, is providing upside leadership. The thirty Dow issues, last time we looked, were trading on the Exchange and could, in fact, be bought. Thus profitable investment op- portunities have indeed existed since June and have not been all that hard to find. The market drama since last summer may indeed have failed to provide us with entertain- ment. However, it is arguable that it has successfully fulfilled its more important function of providing an equitable investment return and that it may well continue to do so, however long the current dreary play continues. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) 1258.74 S & P Composite (12 00 p. m. ) 165.22 Cumulative Index (12/8/83) 2026.64 No statement Of e)(preSSlon 01 OPinion Of any other matter herein contained IS or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly Of mdlreclly, an offer O!' the sohclta\!on of an oHer to buy or sell any secunty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience 01 the subscriber While we believe the sources of our mlormatlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee tM accuracy thcreol nor 01 the statements made herem Any action to be taken bylne subscnber sl10uld be based on I1lsown mvestlgatlon and mlormatlon Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, as a corporailon and ItS officers or employees, may now nave, or may later take, positions or trades In respect to any securIties menltoned In tl1lso, any fulure Issue, and such position may be dl!lerent hom any views nowor helealter expressed In Ihls or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, label! Inc, whiCh Is registered With the SEC as an Investment advisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVisory and other customers Independently 01 any statements made In lhls or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any secunty menHoned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 16, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 16, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - December 16, 1983
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\, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 9249660 I-…,–,,,-, . , Decembe.l6,t9;l-….,….,,….. Our regular readers are aware that this letter tends to be a slave to tradition. They are -, further aware that one such tradition calls for the issuance, in December, of a two-part year-end forecast, the first part reviewing the year past and the second attempting to look a year into the future. This week we are scheduled for a review of the past year, and we intend to indulge in a bit of license. First of all, it seems to us two separate revie.vs, covering two wildly divergent recent periods, are necessary, and, secondly, we intend to extend the timespan under analysis a bit long- er than a year, carrying it back to August 12, 1982. The first of the two stock-market periods we think it necessary to cover began on that date, and its end can be dated, with equal precision at June 16, 1983. In almost 30 years of writing about the stock market, we cannot recall an era on which it was more enjoyable to comment, and the records which were shattered along the way were a source of endless fascination to a student of stock-market history. The fun began on August 17, with an advance of 38 points in the Dow, the second biggest one-day percentage rise of the post-war period. The next day's volume topped 100 million shares for the first time in market history, shattering the previous record by some 40. That level of trading has subsequently been exceeded only five times and not by much. Indeed, this particular statistic was one of the first clues that a new era was being ushered in. For the eight days ended August 26, the Dow was up almost 100 points, the advance setting another post-war record, with records also being achieved in both volume and breadth. By Sep- tember 15, less than five weeks after the process had started, the advance had reached the 20 threshhold by which technicians have historically defined major bull markets, and, by early October, the Dow found itself above the 1000 level, having mov&j ahead 236 points in a couple of months. -ByRoye!!lber 4, a,new all-time high had been achieved. That high shortly receded into history. The 1982-1983 year-end rally eXtended-itselr-fo-a sustained six-manti, 26 advance, reaching 1248.30 on June 16. By the time the whole Ar.ocess was' over, the Dow was up 60.67 over ten months. That period measurably constituted the best ten- month performance turned in by the stock market since 1933-1934, and, even if the market had never moved on to new highs, the ten months from August, 1982 to June, 1983 would, by themselves, have constituted one of the better bull markets in recent history. Even more astounding, while the Dow was in the process of shattering all available upside records, it was not where the action was. The real fireworks were taking place over the counter, where the NASDAQ Industrial Index was posting an advance of 129, while new-issue activity and volume were also setting records. The rise in that capi1!iJ-weighted index probably understated the true magnitude of the advance, and moves of 400-500 were not uncommon. As we noted above, the end of that particular era can be exactly dated in mid -June, and it is necessary separately to review what has happened since. What has happened can be summarized by one word, Nothing. The Dow has continued to post new highs, the last one as recently as Novem- ber 29, at 1287.20. During the period from June 16 to date it has held in a trading range bounded by that high and the August 8 low of 1163.06, a span of just over 10. As just about everybody who can read is aware, the performance of the Dow, lackluster at best, has been better than that of most averages. The S & P 500 staggered to a new high in October and has not been able to ex- ceed it since. Ever since June, broad market measures have managed to perform considerably worse than the senior indicators,creating the widely-heralded divergence. Meanwhile, the OTC market has performed a 180-degree turn from the heady ebullience of last summer and currently finds itself in total disarray, with the NASDAQ Index down 23, a figure which, again, probably understates the case. An investor in June might well have thought he had rediscovered Golconda. By Decembe, he was probably asking the market impatiently, What have you done .for me lately. This dichotomy, it seems to us, is an essential component of a 1984 forecast. Is the desmtude of the last six months simply a corrective process, one sorely needed in the light of the unprecedent- ed rise which came before it, or is it part of a monster distributional tip which threatens to take back a substantial part of the riches amassed since last year What is the meaning of the widely diverg- ing performances in the quality and the secondary sections of the market Most important, where does the action of the past 16 months fit in to an historical timeframe We will assay our own answers to these questions next week. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (12/15/83) 1238.21 161. 84 1993.78 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or eypreSSIQn of opinion or any other mailer herein contained Is, or IS to be deemed to be, dnecily or indirectly, an oller or the sollcltallon 01 an otler 10 buyor sell any secunty referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely lor the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources 01 our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof norol fhe statements made herem AnraC/ron fa be faken by the subscriber should be based on hIS own investlgahon and mlormatlon Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and lis officers or emplOyees, may now have, or may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to any secuflhes mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such POSition may be dllferonl from any views now or hereaUer expressed In this or any other Issue Delaheld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS reglslered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may gIVe advice to ItS Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statemenls made In thiS or In any other Issue Further IIlformatlon on any security mentioned herein Is avaIlable on reQuest

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