Viewing Month: August 1981

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 07, 1981

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 07, 1981

Tabell's Market Letter - August 07, 1981
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.. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 081540 OIVISION OF MEMBER N!W YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE August 7, 1981 — We-de\Toten t1iis spacetwo- weeksago -toadlcussiOho(tl1e'rather oi5V-i5us-f9. tnat'the – Dow Jones Industrial Average had, as of last April, entered into an intermediate downtrend. We advanced the argument that, on the last three instances of such a downtrend, the ultimate reversal took the form of a rather obvious selling climax, producing record levels of volume and downside breadth. We went on to suggest that such a denouement was not unlikely this time around. Climax action has been conspicuous by its absence during the past fortnight, and it is perhaps worthwhile at this stage to examine the sort of upside evidence that might accumUlate without an obvious climactic bottom's taking place. The chart at a two-point-unit point-and-figure chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since early July suggests the form such constructive action might take. The vertical drop on the left hand side of the chart took place in the first two weeks of July and reached a temporary halt on July 6, when the Dow moved for the first time below 950. As the chart clearly shows, a period of lateral action then took place roughly between 946 and 958 before the 'ISo next phase of the break on July 20. This reached a closing low of 924 on July 22, and, in the two weeks since that time, the market has rallied irregularly, returning once more to the 950 range which held for some two weeks early last month. The most bullish possible action from this point forward would be continued ability to hold at approximately these levels with some fairly fluctuation, the action of ';'0 shoulders pattern, and this sort of action, followed by a penetration above 960 would have, at the very least, optimistic short-term implications. Just where this srt of eventuality difficult, at this point to assess. The chart at right shows the action of the Dow on a much more compressed scale, a 10-point-unit base, in this case going back to the mid-80's. The formation is 1000 the heavy overhead supply from over a year's worth of trading that exists in the upper 900's. It furthermore tends to suggest rather severe downside qOO implications were the Dow to break below the 900 level. We are not sure that this latter vulnerability is as great as widely supposed. An analysis of individual stock patterns shows large numbers of issues close to strong support. It seems axiomatic, however, that a break below 900 could well be accompanied by the sort of climax action suggested in our letter of two weeks ago. – This is why the further development of the pattern in the short-term chart above is of fairly crucial importance. At the moment, the base as shown in the chart suggeats nothing more than a, rally to around 990, precisely the area where overhead supply is the highest. Were that pattern to broaden further, however, into a head-and-shoulders base formation of Significant size, a break above the prior high, around 1024, would at least become a possibility. As is always the case, whether or not such a potential pattern will complete itself is purely conjecture, and the downtrend could be resumed at any time with a new break below 940. Continued firmness at this time, however, would, we think, for the reasons discussed above, have more than usual market significance. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL Dow-Jones Industrial Average (1200 p.m.) 945.59 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 131. 91 Cumulative Index (8/6/81) 1156.62 No stalement or expression of opInion or any other moffer herein contamed 'S, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or mdlreC1tr,' on offer or Ihe ,ollcllollon of on offer 10 buy or sell ony security referred 1o or mentioned The moiler IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber Wh, e we believe tke sources of our mfor!T\a lion to be relloble, we 11'1 no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statement mude herein Any action to be token by the subscriber should be hosed 01'1 hl own Investlgahon and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, ond Its officers or employees, may now ho'e, or may later lake, poslllons or Hodes 11'1 respeo;t loony securities mentioned In thiS or any future ISsue, and such pOSitIOn may be different from any Views now or hereafter expressed In thr5 or any other 15sue Janney Montgomery Seem, Inc, whICh IS registered With the SfC as on Invostment odvlsor, may gIve adVice to liS II1vestment advisory and othef customers Independently of ony statements mode ,n thiS or In any other Issue Further mformotlon on O'ly iiecuflty mentioned herem IS avoUable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – August 14, 1981

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 14, 1981

Tabell's Market Letter - August 14, 1981
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 081540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGe, INC MEMBeR AMERICAN STOCI( eXCHANGe August 14, 1981 Energyis1les/J.ave .!!ccounJed (Qr.8 Jag P-!\rLf. the..toglLlIl-'!!ket,story for. somethreeYears now, and in many ways they continue to do so. Certainly a large part of the rise from early 1978 through last winter can be accounted for by the action of oil stocks, as can the subsequent weakness from Spring 1981 to date. Unfortunately, recent oil-stock strength has not been able to lift the market out of the doldrums in which it has been drifting for the past couple of months. The table below gives some relevant statistics regarding the price action of the oil stocks in the S 8. P 500 These issues account for more than 20 percent of the weight of that index. -SE-C-U–R-IT-Y- ATLANTIC RICHFIELD CITIES SERVICE CO. CONOCO EXXON CORF. GENERAL AMERICAN OIL OF TEXAS GETTY OIL COMPANY GULF OIL CORP. LOUISIANA LAND EXP. MESA PETROLEUM MOBIL CORP. PHILLIPS PETROLEUM ROYAL DUTCH PETROLEUM SHELL9IL.Q. STANDARD OIL OF CALIFORNIA STANDARD OIL OF INDIANA SUN CO. SUPERIOR OIL CO. TEXACO INC. UNION OIL OF CALIFORNIA 0) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) PRICE 1980 7. CHANGE 1981 7. CHANGE PRICE 7. CHANGE CHANGE 6/28178 ——- HIGH (1 VS 2) ——– LOW (2 VS 4) 8/12/81 ——– ——- -(2–V–S–6-) (4 VS 6) ——– 24.875 71. 750 188.442 41.625 -41.986 52.875 -26.307 27.027 16.125 60.625 275.969 38.750 -36.083 68.625 13.196 77.097 26.375 72.125 173.460 47.875 -33.622 89.875 24.610 87.729 22.000 43.375 97.159 32.000 -26.225 35.125 -19.020 9.766 27.500 57.750 110.000 34.500 -40.260 47.250 -18.182 36.957 36.375 104.750 187.973 60.875 -41.885 78.375 -25.179 28.747 23.125 51.500 122.703 31.000 -39.806 40.125 -22.087 29.436 21. 750 61.875 184.483 32,250 -47.879 40.125 -35.152 24.419 8.250 33.750 309.091 23.750 -29.630 31. 625 -6.296 33.158 15.625 44,750 186.400 27.375 -38.827 31.250 -30.168 14.155 32.250 60.625 87.985 35.250 -41.856 46.375 -23.505 31.560 29.375 55.000 87.234 30.500 -44.546 35.750 -35.000 17.213 15.25.o61..25Q3j)A.9J 838';0037…65f!—,-MI.250-21. 862—-25. 325 19.875 57.750 190.566 36.500 -36.797 44.500 -22.944 21.18 24.000 99.500 314.583 50.750 -48.995 63.375 -36.307 24.877 20.750 58.500 181.928 32.375 -44.658 43.875 -25.000 35.521 10.000 47.125 371.250 36.375 -22.812 43.875 -6.897 20.619 23.875 51.750 116.754 34.000 -34.300 38.500 -25.604 13.235 11.875 54.750 361.053 29.875 -45.434 39.750 -27.397 33.054 As can be seen, oil-stock action between mid-June, 1978 and early 1981 was more or less uni- form. The 19 issues shown appreciated by amounts ranging from almost 100 to well over 300 to their highs, generally scored in November of last year. The- then, again, almost uniformly, underwent sharp corrections to recent lows posted this Spring. Since that time, as the last two columns of the table show, they have posted recoveries of rather widely varying degrees. The extent of recovery from the 1981 lows is sufficient to divide the issues into two groups on purely technical grounds, and it turns out these technical grounds correspond with the fundamental situation. The leading performer has, of course, been Conoco, about to be taken over. Following on its heels are Cities Service, Mesa and Superior, all the subjects of published speculation as possible takeover candidates. The other large companies, generally regarded as possible acquirors rather than acquirees, have shown rather more modest rebounds and remain at substan- tial discounts from their highs of last Fall. Technical potential for the group also seem to divide into two classes. By and large the take- over candidates are approaching what can be regarded as their long-range upside objectives and present a fair degree of downside risk should their projected acquisition fail to materialize. The other issues can, by and large, be said to have reached downside objectives at their 1981 lows, and the rf'coveries from those lows probably, at the very worst, constitute initial attempts at the formation of new bases. What must be emphasized, however, is that, with the lows having been scored only a few months ago, these bases may take time to complete. While any weakness from current prices may put these issues at long-term attractive levels, it is difficult to see them providing the kind of upside leadership that they contributed between 1978 and 1980, at least until such time as the bases are complete. NOTE Comments on individual issues are based on technical factors only. Further information available on request. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) 941. 97 S 8. P Composite (1200 p.m.) 133.33 Cumulative Index (8113181 1161. 24 No stalement or expreulon of opinion or any oiner moiler herCln contained Is, or 1510 be deemed to be, directly or md,reC1ly, on oHer or the SOI'Cllollon of on offer to buy or sell ony IWJnly referred to or mentioned The molter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Informa t,on to be relloble, we In no way represent or guarOfllee the accuracy thereof nor of the stotements mode herem Any ael,O!) to be Jaken by Ihe subSCriber should be bosed on ,S own inVestigation and tnfarmOlron Jonney Montgomery 5011, Inc, os a corporation, and liS offKers or employees, may now hove, or moy loter lake, position' or trades In reSpect to any seCUrities mentlaned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter exp-essed m I! or an olher luue Janney Monlgomery Scali, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its mvestrnent adVISOry anrl othel customers mdependently of any 51aternel1ls made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on ony SeC\Hlty menTioned herein ,s available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – August 21, 1981

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 21, 1981

Tabell's Market Letter - August 21, 1981
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.–. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORI(. STOCK EXCHANoe, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – ——Ve'ryI1ffietookPlace during last week's trading!n'-tatherdetory -n'iltureor- the stock-market picture, at least as far as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average is concerned. At its Tuesday close of 924.37, that most widely followed of market indicators reached its lowest level of the year and came within one percent of the December 11, 1980 low, from which the year-end rally which culminated with the April 27th high of 1024.05, began. The signs of a climactic reversal, signs that we have been suggesting investors look for for some weeks now, were notable by their absence. It is perhaps worthwhile to point out, however, as we have often had to do in the recent past, that the Dow is but one facet of an ever-more-diverse market. We have listed in the table below the action of the Dow plus six other major market indicators at various points during 1981. For comparison purposes, we have restated all of them, using the low of last December as a base equal to 100. A glance at the table will show the widely divergent action. DJIA S&P 500 DJ Trans DJ Uti! S&P 400 NYSE ASE Fin'l Mkt Value Early Jan. High 110.59 108.45 108.00 106.28 108.09 114.87 109.03 Mid -Feb. Low Late April High Mid I\lay Low MidJune High Late July Low August High Recent Low 102.55 112.73 106.05 111. 40 101. 78 104.97 101. 75 99.70 106.38 101. 85 104.91 99.82 104.17 102.16 100.67 118.78 108.93 116.28 106.46 108.54 106.02 95.09 96.74 93.81 101. 62 95.86 103.45 101. 99 98.95 105.67 101.15 103.41 98.58 103.77 100.81 105.70 120.21 114.07 130.36 114.04 119.00 116.29 100.81 111. 65 109.15 115.57 109.52 116.07 112.38 –I——The-last-two–of-the-indicator,r,4heNYSE-Finllrrcia1'1md'heASEM1il'kl;t-Viilue-inai,;c'es,——-t afford little hint of the 1981 weakness suggested by the other averages. The former had, as of mid-June, advanced over 30 percent from its December low and remains, at this week's low figure, 16 percent above that low. The ASE index, while not having performed as dynamically, is the only one that suggests a continuous uptrend over the period involved, each successive high and each of the four successive lows having been higher than the previous one. That indicator, at 367.94 as of Tuesday, still remains marginally above its July figure of 358.88, and the up!rend thus remains intact. The Dow Industrials and Transportation along with the S &p 500 exhibit more or less similar patterns. All three indices posted their highs back last April and have remained well below those highs since. The recent action of the 500, though, is marginally superior, reflecting no doubt the recent improvement in energy stocks. It has m8laged to hold above its lows of both May and July, something the two Dow averages have been unable to do. The 400, which peaked back in January, has also managed to remain above its July high so far. By far the most interesting action, however, is that of the Dow-Jones Utilities. Through mid-May, as a comparison of the numbers shows, its action had been dramatically inferior to that of the other indicators, and it was the only one at that point that was substantially below its December figure. Since May, however, it has entered into a vigorous rallying phase. It has posted two successive new highs, both in June and August, and its current level is further above its July low than is the case with any of the other series. Indeed, it remains not too far from its August peak, suggesting that it might be a leader on any market upturn which occurred from these levels. It is interesting to note that this sort of action is taking place within the context of a potentially very strong utility pattern. At its high of last December, the Dow Utility Aver- age had moved out of what was essentially a three-year base suggesting significantly higher levels. All of 1981 action so far can be viewed as a correction, testing the support afforded by that base, and this support, so far, has held very nicely. The ability of this average, now at the 113-114 level, to move above 119 would confirm this pattern and suggest that utility issues might be leaders in the next upside phase. Despite possible general market weakness, therefore, utility stocks. should be watched closely as potential investment purchases. AWT rs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 925.23 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 129.96 Cumulative Index (8/20/81) 1142.15 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No stolement or expreulon of opinion or any other moIler herein contolned IS, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or ,ndlrectly, on offer or the soilcltatlon of on offer to buy or sell any seCUriTy referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenlen, of the subscriber Whllt! Ne believe the sources of our Informalion to be reliable, we In no way represent ar guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mode herein Any achon to be tal-en by the suoscnber hauld be based on his own investigation and Informallon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now haye, or may later loke, pasll10ns or trades In respect to any securities menhaned In thiS or ony future Issue, and such position may be different from any Views now or hereafter expressed In thiS of any other Inut! Janney Montgomery Scotl, Inc, whIch IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 lIs Investment adVisory anrl other customef5 Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any seCl.lllty mentioned herein 15 available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – August 28, 1981

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 28, 1981

Tabell's Market Letter - August 28, 1981
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE August 28, 1981 . To gee..Ead neys Ol!t.. of th.) y fi!t ,we …..eeno .evidence, based. on-last-week' s .tech- mcal action. that the-intermediate-term market decline. which-began on A'pril-27. 1981 at 1024.05 on the Dow. is yet over. As our readers are aware. we have. since early summer, been pointing to the general deterioration of the stock market picture. As recently as July 24. we expressed the view that the most likely termination for the current stock-market downswing would be a recognizable selling climax. We base this feeling on the most recently available market history. Since the 1974 lows were reached. long. protracted bear markets. such as those which characterized the early 1960's and late 1970's. have been conspicuous by their absence. We have had. in their place. short. but relatively sharp and vicious, intermediatescale declines. Three of these have occurred in the past few years. in the Fall of 1978, the Fall of 1979. and the Spring of 1980. All three were characterized in their termination stages by the same sort of volatile climactic action which we had come to believe was the exclusive property of bear markets much greater in extent. We see no particular immediate evidence of a change in the basic pattern of market behavior typical of the last seven years. Our feeling. therefore. continues to be that the current instance will produce a similar sort of climax. The sort of climax we have in mind would produce certain measurable characteristics. One such characteristic would be the presence of one or more downswing days on which a large percentage of individual issues declined in price. Generally in the past, a day in which 80 percent or more of all issues traded decline has been a reliable indicator of the onset of climax action. The phenomenon is rare enough to stand out. Only 40 such days have taken place in the past 33 years. Such occurrences. however. unfailingly took place around the time of major bottoms starting with .1949 and cmilirurin.ginJ.95.3.-1.95'Z.r-1962,,1-966 .-l-9'10,-and-t-he-t-hree recent downswings referred to above. It is therefore worth noting that we did have such a day this Monday. when the Dow dropped some 20 points and 80.7 percent of allissues traded closed lower. Here. however, a caveat must be noted. It is not at all uncommon for a number of such days to occur on the way down to a climax bottom. In 1978, for example, the low on the Dow was 785.26 on November 14. The two days with 80 declining issues occurred on October 17 and 20, at 836 and 838. Likewise, the 1979 low st 796.67 on November 17 was preceded by three 80-declining days in mid-October. at 857, 849, and 809 respectively. Furthermore, another reliable indicator of a selling climax is, very often, excessive volume. This has been notable by its total absence to date. A measurement we have used with some success to determine evidence of unusually heavy downside volume has been a single day on which volume increased to somewhere between 1. 5 times and 2 times its average for the past 25 days, preferably reaching a high close to the latter figure. This took place both in 1978 and 1979. The average volume for the past 25 days has been approximately 43 million shares. Therefore. it would be reasonable to expect a selling climax to produce minimum volume in the upper 6million-share range and, better still, something well in excess of 80 million. This, of course, has not occurred. Having said all this, we continue to reiterate our belief that the overall scale of this decline is unlikely to prove a great deal different than that of the recent downswings men- tioned above. The 1978 decline was 13.5. the 1979 instance 11. 2 and the Spring-1980 case, 16.0. This one has extended to 13.2 so far. Based on our reading of individual chart patterns, we think a downside objective, in terms of the Dow, of something like 850 is plausible. This would produce a correction on the scale of the drop which ended on Silver Thursday a year ago last Spring. Therefore, although further weakness seems probable, we think that attainment of these levels, especially if accompanied by the sort of climax action referred to above, would provide an above -average buying opportunity. AWT rs ANTHONY W. T ABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 891.36 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 124.07 Cumulative Index (8/27/81) 1086.01 No statemenT or expresSion of opinion or any other moIler here, contained IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, on offer or Ihe solicllotlOn of on offer To buy or sell any seCUriTy referred to or menhoned The matter IS presented merely for the convenlenCf of Ihe subSCriber While we believe the sources ef our Informo- han to. be reliable we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof ncr of the statements mude herein Any action to. be toen by the subscriber hould be based on his own 'lnvestlgallcn and Information Janney Montgomery SCCII, Inc, cs a corporation, ond Its offlcer or employee, may now have, cr may later toke, pCSlhons cr trades In respect to any seCUrities mentlened In thiS ar any future Issue, and such pasltlan may be different frem any views new er hereafter c1 p ressed ln this or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS regiSTered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to. Its Investment adVisory anrl at hel customers Independently of any staTements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further ,fermatlon on any seCIJtlty mentlel'led herem IS available on request

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