Viewing Month: December 1981

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 04, 1981

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 04, 1981

Tabell's Market Letter - December 04, 1981
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER . ……….. ' …. i. -…. ,, ,,.. …. … 808 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 MM8 NEW VOAI( STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. MEMBEA AMEAICAN STOCK EXCHANQE December 4, 1981 Rent finm.cial new has concentrated. to a great degree, ,on the. .rather. extraordinary l'ally in the bond marKet and the concomitant strength in stocks. It is possible for a skeptic to point out. first of all. that the bond-market rally was hardly all that extraordinary consid- ering the oversold position in which senior securities found themselves at the beginning of last month. It can also be suggested that the accompanying rally in equities which has moved the DJIA. BOme eight percent above its September 25th low has hardly been that dynamic in Hght of the fact that conventional wisdom has been assuring us for most of 1981 that an im- proving bond market was all that was necessary to unleash stock prices on the upside. While all this has been going on. this letter. the priBOner of its own technical bias. has been saying Httle or nothing about interest rates and has been concentrating upon a number of entirely different aspects of the stock market scene. It is possibly worth recapitulating some of those aspects. -and we The Four-Year think the only Cpfa.culsei.bleAscuorurer readers know. we are believers nt interpretation of that cycle is in the four-year cycle, that the last major stock-market bottom was seen in March.1978. Once this hypothesis is accepted. a peak and the onset of a bear phase some two and a half years after the low becomes highly likely. The Standard. Poors 50o-Stock Index did indeed peak in November, 1980 and the Dow-Jones In- dustrial Average followed six months later. achieving its high in April, 1981. Both averages have since posted proximate-20 declines, thus achieving the threshold normally used to identify bear markets. All the major averages posted their lows on September 25th and have not exceeded those lows since. The question. therefore. that we will be living with for BOme months is whether the cycle which began in March. 1978 ended in September. 1981. Such an interpretation would not be totally implausible based on the historical record. but a later term- ination date. ssy sometime in the Spring of 1982. would possess a higher degree of likelihood. The Dog That Did Nothing in the Nightime — or the Missing Selling Climax. As noted above. s four-year cycle low occuring in September, 1981 would not have been totally out of line with the historical record. However. such lows tend to be accompanied by identifiable climactic action. The means of identifying selling climaxes verge on the esoteric. and they have been reviewed at BOme length here. Suffice it to say that. in our view. such a climax did not manifest itself in late September or early October. The Subsequent Base. Given the lack of climactic action. it would have been totally unsurprising had the market. after a short pause in September-October, shortly turned around and moved to new lows. This.of course. is precisely what it has not done. Instead, most averages spent the Fall forming short-to-intermediate-term base formations. In the case of the broader-based indices. such as the S P 500 and the NYSE Composite, these bases were completed by early November. The pattern for the more widely-followed Dow-Jones Industrials lagged behind. and the bsse apparently did not complete itself until a breakout took place last week. Despite the time disparity. the current base patterns for most averages seem to call for advances in the area of 15 from their respective lows. This would involve upside targets of 960 for the Dow. 131 for the S P and 75 -for ihe NYSE Composite. The Overhead Supply. Were the targets mentioned above to be achieved, almost all the averages would have moved up to the areas of massive overhead supply. supply formed by a year's worth of trading between Summer 1980 and Summer 1981. It is, of course, possible that a move through this supply could be staged with a minimum of difficulty. It does not, how- ever. seem approp.riafe to suggest that this is the most likely eventuality. It is the above combination of factors that has caused us to view the current market with BOme skepticsm. If the market is indeed able to demonstrate broad rallying power as the supply is reached. we would. of course. be forced to admit that that skepticism was ill-founded and resume our basically positive long-term attitude toward equities. If this is the case – if. in other words. September 25 turns out to have been a cycle bottom — we shall have missed a portion of the ensuing move. It is a risk. given the currently available guidance that we are willing to assume. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL – Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 891. 55 S P Composite (1200 p.m.) 126.11 Cumulative Index (12/3/81) 1131. 89 No 1101em&nt or expreSSion of opmion or any other motter I-tere.n contolned IS, or 10 be deemed 10 be, dIreCTly or IndlreC1ly, on offer or te 50llelloll,;n of If I to buy or sell any secuflly referred 10 or mentIoned The motler II, presented merely for the converlena of Ihe subsCriber While we belkeve eturb\o ursho d tlon to be rehable we In no way represent or guarantee Ihe accuracy Thereof nor of Ihe statemenh. mude hereIn Any based on hl own'lnvestlgatlon and InformatIon Jonney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporatIon, ond Its oHlcen or dposillons or trades In respect to any secunhes mentioned In thIS or any fulure nIue, and such pOSItIon moy be dIfferent aC1lon 10 be to efmropmloyeneys,v;meway en now nOheee''urofteroIr(lpotreeuetodkei ns;ent advisory and othe, th or ony other Issue Janney Montgomery 5011, Inc, whuh Is regIstered WIth the SEC as on Investment adVISor, may gld hln, saalloble on request customers ,ndependently of ony ,Iolements mode 111 Ihls or In any olher Issue fvrther 1r'lIOrmallon on ony secuflty mer'lllO

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 11, 1981

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 11, 1981

Tabell's Market Letter - December 11, 1981
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.. ( ! t !t….. .,' TABELL'S MARKET LE.. TTER . . '…' .J t., , …) …. ,.. t. …….. ….t .1'; …. l''A.. .. '809 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVla'ON 01' MEMIlE NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANQE, INC MEMII!;A AMEIII'CAN STOCK EXCHANGE – December 11, 1981 The name of the game for the market analyst is, of course, to forecast the future, i.e. what is going Jo.happen. This task is often made difficult by the fact that,.in many casea, that which has already happened is not precisely clear. The record is there to be sure, but the meaning behind that record can be obscure, to be clarified only much later. Such is the case at the present time. We know, for example, that the major market averages posted a low on September 25, 1981 and have not exceeded that low since. The problem is where to fit this known fact into an historical pattern. The question, in other words, is whether or not September 25th constituted a major cycle low, and, as OU!' readers are aware, we hsve been wrestling with this question for some weeks. One way of attacking the problem is known as the reference-cycle approach. This con- sists of comparing current stock-market action with trading which took place following past known low points. Low dates for the previous eight major stock market cycles are known quantities, and the table below attempts to compare current action with action following the eight prior dates in terms of four variables, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, the S P 500, the Advance-Decline line and NYSE volume, smoothed vis a 25-day moving average. Through Wednesday, 53 trading days had passed since the September 25th low. and the table shows the highest level reached for each of the four market variables in the first 53 days following each previous reference date. In each case the figure is expressed as a percentage of its value on the market low date thus making market action for all nine cycles comparable. High in First 53 Days Date of As Percentage of Market Low Market Low DJ I A S & P 500 Adv-Dec Line Volume Jun 13 1949 112.64 114.47 125.09 126.43 Sep 14 1953 110.13 109.12 115.91 121.30 Oct 22 1957 107.17 107.03 116.70 109.36 Jun 26 1962 114.98 114.26 136.01 100.18 Oct 7 1966 110.29 113.39 120.00 128.58 May 26 1970 116.54 113.32 124.27 111.76 Dec 6 1974 129.81 127.09 151.03 162.52 Feb 28 1978 113.77 112.67 120.40 198.50 Sep 25 1981 108.34 112.04 113.29 112.28 As can be seen, the current market has failed to distinguish itself in any of the four categories. The Dow-Jones Industrials, now up 8.3 from their high, posted a larger advance for the first 53 days in every past market, with the exception of 1957. In terms of the S P 500, the present market fares a little bit better. Following three past market lows, 1966, 1970, and 1978. the S P posted an advance on the same order of magnitude as the current one, and in two cases its advance in early stages of the bull market was considerably less than on the present rise. Performance of the Advance-Decline Line since September has been significantly worse than at comparable stages of any of the eight prior bull markets, and this, in our view, must be considered a weakness in the present picture. Volume since September has likewise been ; disappointing. The most significant clue that a major bottom had been made following March, 1978 — a market which might, otherwise, look much like the current one —was the significant volume expansion that took place on the ensuing rise. There has been no comparable expansion of volume to date. About the only past bottom after which most indicators behaved as they are currently behaving was the one in October, 1957. There are fair numbers of similarities between that market and this one, too detailed to go into at great length here. Basically, the bottoming pro- cess in that year was the product of increasing 11lIIlness which carried on well into the Spring of 1958. It was not until Summer, 1958, more than six months after the actual bottom. that the market took off in earnest. It will be interesting to see whether or not such a pattern develops in the current instance. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (1100 a.m.) 891.36 S P Composite (1100 a.m.) 125.50 Cumulative Index (12110181) 1129.10 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL' DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No 't'ment or tlxpreulon of OPIflI/;, Of eny other metltlr herem tonto!fled is, 01 1 to bt- deemed to be, dm!etJy or !fldlfedlr,' an offer or the soltcltatlon of an offer to buy or lell any leCUTI'Y referred 10 or mentioned The motter '5 preiiented merely for the convenlenc of the subSCriber Wh, e .we believe Ihe Ourtes of our Information 10 be rel'oble. we In no way represent or guerontee the accuracy thereof nor of thll stotllmenh mudll herein, Any octlon to be token by the bscnber ihould be 'ed on hIS own Invest,gotlon and Informallon Janney Montgomery Seott, Inc, as a corporation, ond Its officers or employees, may now have, or may laler toke, poslhons or trades In respect loony seUII!.el mentioned In th or any future luue, ond lvrn POSition may be d,fferent from any views now or hereafter expressed In Ih or any other usue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc. whuh h reglstcred With the SEC a! on investment adVisor, moy give od'e 10 III Investment adVisory and olher CUslomers Independefllly of al'ly statements mode ,n IhIS or In any olher ,UVfI Furlher information on any security menhoned here.n IS OVOilabie on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 18, 1981

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 18, 1981

Tabell's Market Letter - December 18, 1981
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, r TABELL'S MARKET …….. , LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEM.!fIII HEW VOflilK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. MEMtlE,. AMUIICAN STOCK EXCHANOE December 18. 1981 It is the accustomed usage of this letter to divide a year-end forecast into .two partS. starting with a revtew of the year just past and cOncluding with a forecast for the year to come. Today's task at hand. therefore. is to present a review of the stock-market year. 1981. Probably just about everything that is relevant about 1981 as far as forecasting the future is concerned can be summarized in one sentence. It was a bear market year. This is neither an attempt to be facile or overly simplistic. The recognition of what took place during 1981 as a bear market is. to our mind. crucial in formulating a position as to what lies ahead. We have seen many analyses of recent market action that are unwilling to make this assumption. We. on the other hand. regard it as central in analyzing the long-term cyclical position of the stock market. It is therefore perhaps appropriate to review the evidence. On November 18. 1980 the Standard and Poors 500 reached a high of 140.52. Five months later. on April 27; 1981 the Dow attained a peak of 1024.05. On September 25. they had declined to 112.77 and 82401 respectively. a drop of 19.75 for the 500 and 19.53 for the Dow. The historic criteria for the recognition of bear markets which. with the single exception of 1953. has isolated every major cycle drop since World War II has been a decline of just under 20. This figure was attained during 1981 in both major averages. As soon as we become willing to accept the 1981-bear-market concept. it remains only to set it into a cyclical context. Once more. as we have stated repestedly. to our mind the only tenable hypotfteslsis that this particular downswing represents the declining phase of a major stock market cycle which began in early March, 1978. The first part of that cycle consisted of a 38 advance in the Dow and a 62 advance in the S P, to the high point mentioned above. These percentage advances. especially the former, are on the low side of historiCal experience. but appear minimally acceptable. The cycle in question. then. having'- started in early 1978 and run to. at least. September 25 of this year, covered 904 trading days at a minimum. Under this interpretation the Dow spent 88 of its total cycle length advancing and the S P apent some 77 of its total cycle length in an advancing phase. These figures would be altered somewhat if one regards the cycle as still in effect, thus adding to its length the 59 trading days aince September 25. They are. however. firmly in the range of cycle patterns going back for as long as we can construct stock market averages. 1981 emerges, then as including a rather conventional major-cycle bear market which lasted at least until September 25. It is those remaining 59 days which, of course, present the problem. During that period the Dow raIUed 7.4 to 892.69 on December 4 and the S P some 12 to 126.26 on the same date. The stock market problem at the moment. as we have pointed out ad nauseam, lies in deciding whether those 59 days constituted only an interruption in an ongoing 1978-198 cycle or whether they are part of the start of a new one. We have presented in many recent issues of this letter the case for regarding the latter assumption with some skepticism, RaIUes much greater than 59 days in length have interrupted recent bear markets as have raIUes of considerably greater than 12. That the downward phase of a major stock-market cycle covered the first three quarters of 1981 seems a virtual certainty. Whether that cycle remains in effect is a still unanswered question. The range of cycle lengths for the post-World War II period is 863 to 1177 trading days. with an average 1043 days. The 904day length, so far, suggests that a bottom on September 25 is not historically inconceivable. However, were the present cycle to equal the average of the past 33 years it would continue until April. 1982, and were it to approach maximum length it could continue for most of 1982. The latter interpretation. however, appears unlikAlv. The one inevitable fact of bear markets is that they are followed by bull markets. and what we have tried to suggest in the above review of the past year is that it can be interpreted only as a bear market which either termbated three months ago at levels not too far different from those of today or one which will terminate fairly shortly. Such a framework. when one thinks aboutit ;is not too shaky a structure on which to build a 1982 forecast. Dow-Jones Industrials (1100 p.m.) 873.86 S P Composite (1100 p.m. ) 123.40 Cumulative Index (12117181) UI0.IS ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY. TABELL AWTrs A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL No Qlement or e;llpreUlon of OPinion or ony other matter hereIn c.onlolned U, or is 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or Indirectly, on offer or the OlIe,lotlon of on offer to buy or lell any security referred to or mentIoned Tne motter I, presented merely for the convefllen. of the subscriber wtllie we believe Ihe lOurces of our Informo tlon to be rellobl, we In no way represent or 'JIIClranfee the occurocy theren! flO! ot the Iforemenr. mude herein Any OC'f,on 10 be taken by the subscrtber lhoi.Jld be based on hiS own Inveulgot,on and informatIon Jonney Montgomery Scot!, Inc, 010 (orporOllOn, and Its offlters or employees, mey now have, or moy loter toke, posItIons or trodes In respect to ony securitIes mentIoned In thIS or any future luue, and such POS',on rn.ay be dIfferent from ony vIews now or hereafter expressed In thIS or ony other 'nue Janney Montgomery Sea!!, Inc, whIch IS regIsTered WIth rhe SEC 0 on ,VestmenT adVISor, may gIve adVICe to lili Investment adVISOry ond othel C'Ustarners Independen11y of any OTemen mode In th or In any other sue Funner InformatIon on any ecunly ment.oned hereIn IS ovolloble on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 23, 1981

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 23, 1981

Tabell's Market Letter - December 23, 1981
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f ,, 1'-'. TABELL'S MARKET .. .'h' i l LETTER .,1.'..' –…. -. -. .\ e09 BTATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 081540 MEMBE NEW VOAK STOCK EXCH ….NGE. INC MEM8EA A ..' 'leAN STOCK EXCHANQE December 23, 1981 We concluded our summary of the stock-market year 1981 Isst week by saying that it can be interpreted only as a bear marker which terminated three months ago at levels not too far different from those of today or one which wiIJ terminate fairly shortly. If that 'sssumption regarding last year is correct, a forecast for 1982 becomes easy. It will be s bull-market year. Such a forecsst is. as we said. easy. but. in the early stages of 1982 at lesst. it is spt to prove less than useful. This lsck of usefulness stems from the fsct that the major unanswered question regarding recent stock-market action remains whether or not the DJIA low of 824.01 on September 25 constituted s major cycle bottom. Throughout the rmal quarter of 1981. this letter hss chosen to proceed on the assumption that such was not the case. for reasons which. we hope, we have made clear. If we are incorrect in this assumption, it has not, to date, cost us slI that much in terms of foregone opportunity. (The Dow at the moment is less than 6 above its September low.) If we are correct in our hypothesis, the possibility of another downward move in 1982 remains. This, it seems to us, would logicslly take place early in the year and might involve nothing more than a test of the lows of last September. At the worst, it could involve a full-fledged rmal bear-market leg which might carry as low as the mid-700's on the Dow. Even when considered only ss a possibility, this is serious enough to justify our present attitude of caution. There is, of course, some hypothetical justification for this expected downward leg's not materi- alizing. The table below traces the range of the Dow for various periods following the lows of October 22, 1957 and September 25, 1981. By coincidence, the Dow in the earlier period was slmost exactly one- half its level today, so figures for the post-1957 months have been multiplied by two. It is interesting to note the extent to which market action for the first three months following the two lows is similsr in each of the widely separated eras. The 1957 aftermath, as the table shows, was bullish in the extreme. W/lether 1982 can trace a similar pattern is a question yet to be answered. 1957 (times 2) 1981 Market Range Following Low First 2 weeks ext 2 -weeks- Next 2 months Next 6 months 882 – 839 878 – 859 899 – 851 986 – 873 878 – 824 873 – 847 892 – 831 Next Year 1328 – 989 1 There is no one indicator, we think, that will afford us an answer ss to whether the 1982-1981 bull market will emerge from a basing process which began last September or whether it will emerge from a new low to be made later on in the year. We think that the earliest clue will come from our regular practice of monitOring the development of individual patterns ss they unfOld in the early months of the year ahead. As we continue to observe that development, we would hope either to maintain and reinforce our present cautious attitude or to abandon it before the market hss made too much upside progress. We do not Bee this as an impossible tssk. Since we view 1982 as marking the completion of a four-year cycle, we took the occssion. this week. to review out' year-end forecast of 1977 – four years ago. We said then. If weaknells occurs in 1978, we would expt it GUrul!; the first half. This, of course, occurred, with the current cycle low reached in March, 1978. We also, however, speculated on the possibility that, 1978 might see the resolution of the dilemma — the ultimate end of the dreary sidewise action that has characterized the market since the mid-1960's. With the four-year cycle that followed that letter now completed or lsrgely completed, we now know that this did not occur. Will it occur during the cycle we expect to commence in 19821 There is, we think, accumulating evidence that points in this direction. If the past two decades can be succinctly summarized, they constituted a period of inferior performance on the part of financial assets (both stocks and bonds) vis-a-vis the performance of tangible sssets (real estate, collect- ibles, gold, etc.). No financial trend continues forever, and we do not expect this one to do so either. Indeed, we are perhaps embarking on a period when a program of government incentives toward savings and investment in financial sssets is st lesst partially replscing that of incentives toward investment in real assets that characterized the psst 20 years. That the American public has begun to discover the attractiveness of financial instruments is evidenced by some 180 billion currently residing in money- market funds, an amount equal to 16 of the market value of slI common Btocks listed in the New York Stock Exchange and equal to the market value of about six months of NY SE trading of current levels. The emergence of liberalized Individual Retirement Accounts in 1982 may produce financial shifts just as dramatic. Were these and other financial shifts to impsct even partislly, the equity market, the bull market, which we see as taking place during st lesst part of the year ahead, could indeed be one far more dramatic than the rather tepid affsirs which have characterized more recent stock-market history. Dow-Jones Industrials 869.67 S P Composite 122.31 Cumulative Index (12/22) 1108.81 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL WE WISH YOU ALL A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR No slclemen! or e;preluon of (lpm,on or any other molter herein contolned II, or II 10 be deemed to be, dHeC1ly or Indirectly, on offer or the lollcllollon of on offel to buy or sell ony security referred to or mentioned The malTel presenTed melllly for The convellence of the subSCriber While Ne believe Ihe aour'es of our Informo1101'1 to be reliable. we In no way represenT or gUO'onlee the occurocy IhelltOf nor of Ihe stoTemenh mude herein Any CIchon to be loken by Ihe subSCriber Ihould be based on hiS own II'Ivelllgcllon ond Informolion Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, os CI corporollon ond III off,eers or employees, may now have, or mCly Icter loke, PO!t,ons or trades In respeCT to any securiTIes menhoned In Ihls or ony futule usve, ond such pos,llcn moy be dlfferenl from ony v,ews now or hereofter Itltpressed ,1'1 th.s or ony olher ISSue Jonney Montgomery coli, Inc, which IS regisTered With Ihe SEC as on Investmenl odvnor, may give odvlce to 115 Investment adVISOry ond Olhe. customers Independently of onv sloteme,s mode 11'1 thiS or 11'1 any other Inve Further ….formol,on on any security rnenoned herein U aVailable on requel.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 30, 1981

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 30, 1981

Tabell's Market Letter - December 30, 1981
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jI I f L , TABELL'S MARKET LETTER .- '&08 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 Dlv,a'ON 0,. MEMUfil NEW VOIllI( STOCK I)(CMANOIE, INC MIMI!1lI AMERICAN STOCI( EXCHANGe December 30, 1981 For some years now. we have studied the familiar seasonal tendency of the stock market to stage a year-end r,ally. ,and it has been the custom of this letter to point out some of the conclusions that can be derived from a study of this phenomenon. Our original study, going back to when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average first was computed in 1897. indicated that such a rally, however miniscule. invariably had taken place. However. two recent periods. 1976-77 and 1977-78. provided exceptions. with the DJIA. in each case. reaching its high for the year on the first day of January. The last three years have seen the resumption of the usual year-end rally pattern. The following facts about the year-end rally may be noted. 1. The year-end rally often has been of great magnitude, occasionally continuing through the entire subsequent year without a 5 correction being recorded. It frequently has continued with only minor interruptions for as long as six months into the new year. In 1961. 1963, 1964. 1967. 1971, 1975. and 1976. the rally continued into February. March. or beyond. However, on other occasions. it has been of only a few day's duration, reaching a top extremely early. Thus. in 1960. 1970. 1973. and 1974, the rally reached a peak by the first week in January. and. as noted above. the 1976 and 1977 year-end rallies failed entirely to carry into January. 2. There has been a persistent tendency for the rally to begin early in years when the market has been up. and late in years when the market has been down. In recent upward years. 1967. 1975. 1979. and 1980 are examples. the rally commenced from early December. In recent downward years. 1962. 1966. 1969. and 1977. the rally began late in the year. This year was a down E– year. and the December low was probably msde on December 29th. 3. The important thing to wstch in connection with the market action in the early months of the new year is the aforementioned figure. the previous December low. This low has been broken in 49 years out of the past 81. However. in 28 of these 49 cases. it was broken in January and February. For example. in 1970. 1973. 1977. and 1978. the December low was broken by early January. Since 1937. it has never been broken later than mid-March with three except- ions. 1965. 1974. and this year. when it was finally penetrated in August. Thus. if the market is able to hold above its December low for the first 2 months of the year. chances become good that this low will not be broken. 4. In years when the December low has been broken. the subsequent trend has been downwards two-thirds of the time. 1962. 1966. 1969. 1973. 1974. and 1977 are typical cases. 1965 and 1978. along with 1980. as noted above. were exceptions. 5. The magnitude of the rally is an important clue as to the year's market trend. For example. an advance of 10 or more from the Dember low has been followed by an upward or neutral market in 35 of the,47 \rears that such an advance has occurred. An advance of less than 10 or–fii'ore from the December low before an identifiable Election takes place has been followed by a downward market in 28 of the 39 ears. In 1963. 1964. 1971. and 1980. the year-end rally approximated 10. d in 1972. it was 17. In 1962. 1970. 1973. and 1977. for example. it was less than this figure. This year. the rule failed to hold. with a rally of just over 10 being followed by a downward year. 6. The length of time in which the rally continues into the new year is important. For example. in 23 years. the rally continued into March or later. 1n 19 of these 23 years, the eventual trend was upward. In 1964. 1972. 1975. and 1976. the year-end rally continued into March and in 1961. 1967. 1971. and 1980. into February. This year, therefore. the December low. probably-868.25 on Tuesday, will become an important reference point to watch. If the Dow is able to advance from this low by 10, roughly to the 960 level. or continue a rally into February or March. the historical implications would be bullish. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials 873.10 SloP Composite 122.30 Cumulative Index (12/29/81) 1100.72 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TAB ELL No statement or exprl!lUlon of apUlIon or any other mo'1er here'n contOlned '5. or Ii 10 be deemed to be, dlfeetly or 'ndlfeclly, on offer or the lollcllotion of on offer to buy or sell ant. seCUrity refered 10 Of me.,honed The moiler IS presenTed melely -for the con….etllencf of the subscriber wtuJelII beheve the sourtes of our Informotlon 10 be reHab e, we In no way represel'll or guaron'ee the accuracy thereof nor of the stalement, mude herein Any athon to be loken by Ihe subscnber should be based on his own mveSllgallon and Infotmallon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a torporatlon, and ltl officers or employees, moy now have, or may loler toke, poslllons or trodes in respect to ony securotles menlloned In thiS or ony hJlufl' Issue, and such position mey be dIfferent from ony views now or hereafter expreued In Ihl5 or any other Inue Janney MonTgomery Scolt, Inc, whIch IS registered wlh the SEC as on ,vestment adVisor, may gIve odve 10 II, Investment advISory and other CUSTomers ,ndependently of any statemenTS mode In Ihls or in any oher Issue FU'1her Informa'ion on ony security mentioned herein IS ovolloble on request

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