Tabell’s Market Letter – August 14, 1981

Tabell’s Market Letter – August 14, 1981

Tabell's Market Letter - August 14, 1981
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 081540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGe, INC MEMBeR AMERICAN STOCI( eXCHANGe August 14, 1981 Energyis1les/J.ave .!!ccounJed (Qr.8 Jag P-!\rLf. the..toglLlIl-'!!ket,story for. somethreeYears now, and in many ways they continue to do so. Certainly a large part of the rise from early 1978 through last winter can be accounted for by the action of oil stocks, as can the subsequent weakness from Spring 1981 to date. Unfortunately, recent oil-stock strength has not been able to lift the market out of the doldrums in which it has been drifting for the past couple of months. The table below gives some relevant statistics regarding the price action of the oil stocks in the S 8. P 500 These issues account for more than 20 percent of the weight of that index. -SE-C-U–R-IT-Y- ATLANTIC RICHFIELD CITIES SERVICE CO. CONOCO EXXON CORF. GENERAL AMERICAN OIL OF TEXAS GETTY OIL COMPANY GULF OIL CORP. LOUISIANA LAND EXP. MESA PETROLEUM MOBIL CORP. PHILLIPS PETROLEUM ROYAL DUTCH PETROLEUM SHELL9IL.Q. STANDARD OIL OF CALIFORNIA STANDARD OIL OF INDIANA SUN CO. SUPERIOR OIL CO. TEXACO INC. UNION OIL OF CALIFORNIA 0) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) PRICE 1980 7. CHANGE 1981 7. CHANGE PRICE 7. CHANGE CHANGE 6/28178 ——- HIGH (1 VS 2) ——– LOW (2 VS 4) 8/12/81 ——– ——- -(2–V–S–6-) (4 VS 6) ——– 24.875 71. 750 188.442 41.625 -41.986 52.875 -26.307 27.027 16.125 60.625 275.969 38.750 -36.083 68.625 13.196 77.097 26.375 72.125 173.460 47.875 -33.622 89.875 24.610 87.729 22.000 43.375 97.159 32.000 -26.225 35.125 -19.020 9.766 27.500 57.750 110.000 34.500 -40.260 47.250 -18.182 36.957 36.375 104.750 187.973 60.875 -41.885 78.375 -25.179 28.747 23.125 51.500 122.703 31.000 -39.806 40.125 -22.087 29.436 21. 750 61.875 184.483 32,250 -47.879 40.125 -35.152 24.419 8.250 33.750 309.091 23.750 -29.630 31. 625 -6.296 33.158 15.625 44,750 186.400 27.375 -38.827 31.250 -30.168 14.155 32.250 60.625 87.985 35.250 -41.856 46.375 -23.505 31.560 29.375 55.000 87.234 30.500 -44.546 35.750 -35.000 17.213 15.25.o61..25Q3j)A.9J 838';0037…65f!—,-MI.250-21. 862—-25. 325 19.875 57.750 190.566 36.500 -36.797 44.500 -22.944 21.18 24.000 99.500 314.583 50.750 -48.995 63.375 -36.307 24.877 20.750 58.500 181.928 32.375 -44.658 43.875 -25.000 35.521 10.000 47.125 371.250 36.375 -22.812 43.875 -6.897 20.619 23.875 51.750 116.754 34.000 -34.300 38.500 -25.604 13.235 11.875 54.750 361.053 29.875 -45.434 39.750 -27.397 33.054 As can be seen, oil-stock action between mid-June, 1978 and early 1981 was more or less uni- form. The 19 issues shown appreciated by amounts ranging from almost 100 to well over 300 to their highs, generally scored in November of last year. The- then, again, almost uniformly, underwent sharp corrections to recent lows posted this Spring. Since that time, as the last two columns of the table show, they have posted recoveries of rather widely varying degrees. The extent of recovery from the 1981 lows is sufficient to divide the issues into two groups on purely technical grounds, and it turns out these technical grounds correspond with the fundamental situation. The leading performer has, of course, been Conoco, about to be taken over. Following on its heels are Cities Service, Mesa and Superior, all the subjects of published speculation as possible takeover candidates. The other large companies, generally regarded as possible acquirors rather than acquirees, have shown rather more modest rebounds and remain at substan- tial discounts from their highs of last Fall. Technical potential for the group also seem to divide into two classes. By and large the take- over candidates are approaching what can be regarded as their long-range upside objectives and present a fair degree of downside risk should their projected acquisition fail to materialize. The other issues can, by and large, be said to have reached downside objectives at their 1981 lows, and the rf'coveries from those lows probably, at the very worst, constitute initial attempts at the formation of new bases. What must be emphasized, however, is that, with the lows having been scored only a few months ago, these bases may take time to complete. While any weakness from current prices may put these issues at long-term attractive levels, it is difficult to see them providing the kind of upside leadership that they contributed between 1978 and 1980, at least until such time as the bases are complete. NOTE Comments on individual issues are based on technical factors only. Further information available on request. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) 941. 97 S 8. P Composite (1200 p.m.) 133.33 Cumulative Index (8113181 1161. 24 No stalement or expreulon of opinion or any oiner moiler herCln contained Is, or 1510 be deemed to be, directly or md,reC1ly, on oHer or the SOI'Cllollon of on offer to buy or sell ony IWJnly referred to or mentioned The molter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Informa t,on to be relloble, we In no way represent or guarOfllee the accuracy thereof nor of the stotements mode herem Any ael,O!) to be Jaken by Ihe subSCriber should be bosed on ,S own inVestigation and tnfarmOlron Jonney Montgomery 5011, Inc, os a corporation, and liS offKers or employees, may now hove, or moy loter lake, position' or trades In reSpect to any seCUrities mentlaned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter exp-essed m I! or an olher luue Janney Monlgomery Scali, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its mvestrnent adVISOry anrl othel customers mdependently of any 51aternel1ls made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on ony SeC\Hlty menTioned herein ,s available on request

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