TABELL-S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE May 20, 1977 '- ..,…..,..- -Ithas -to- end'S0met-i-me;– What-we-are-referr-ing-to,–of'course-;-is. the-torpor-beingdis–. . played by the equity market which, on a macro basis, has been locked at essentially the same level for what is now longer than 15 months Expressed in terms of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, the market has held between, approximately, 920 and 1020 ever since February of 1976. To be sure, as is almost always the case when the market remains in a protracted trading range, there have been individual areas which have proved themselves either rewarding or painful. During the past five quarters, both transportation and utility issues have been edging in the direction of new highs with s orne cons istency while, at the sa me time, the action of the growth favorites of a few years ago has been something just short of catastrophic. These crosscurrents have tended to cancel each other out, so that the sideways action of the Dow more- or less fairly describes the market as a whole albeit, perhaps, with a slight downward bias. Fifteen months is, after all, a long time, and the trouble is that we are getting used to this sort of thing. We tend to forget, therefore, that this sort of action is contradictory to the great bulk of historic stock market experience. HIstorically, the market has spent the bulk of its time moving — with some rapidity and sense of direction — from one price level to another, often quite disparate, price level. It is, therefore, almost axiomatic to suggest the likelihood of a move to some price level quite different from 920-1020 on the Dow before too much more time has elapsed. Given the above rather obvious statement, it would be helpful, to say the least, to have some idea as to what the direction of that next move might be. One of the frustrating facets of .– …,.-the recentmarketisthatit -has ,..bYtechnicala ctton-tn-date, provided4.ittlein'the- wayOf such an idea, and what clues there have been tended to be contradictory, confusing and vacillating. It is, perhaps, worthwhile, therefore, to view the latest evidence. Recent market action has provided us with a few tentative gestures in the direction of the ups ide. Through Wednesday of this week, the Dow had edged ahead in four consecutive trading sessions after digesting a fairly solid advance in late April-early May. At the Wednesday intraday high of 947.34, the Dow had returned to a level approximating its May 5th high of 949.46 and the earlier April 14th high of 956.07. Internal action was once more impressive. Our Cumulative Index, at a high of 672, was only two points away from the bull market peak scored last January, and breadth indices were continuing, as was the case last winter, to diverge positively from the Dow. The downtrend in the Dow, as measured from the year-end 1976 high, is close to being broken and would be decisively penetrated were any firmness to take place this week. The stage, in a sense, is set, but it has been set a number of times in the past 15 months without the a'udience ever having shown up. Being optimists at heart, we would like to think more positively than the above paragraphs suggest, but, on the basis of current scanty evidence, we are unable to do so. The most impressive arguments in favor of the upside at the moment are negative ones. Postulating, as we have above, an ultimate decis ive move from current levels, it is difficult, in our view, to build a persuasive downside case. Where, one may well ask, is downSide leadership to come from It has centered, so far, around the growth stocks. That these issues might trend — somewhat lower-isplausible,and thatthey might- not-move up verymuch–even more plausible.Expecting them to produce major bear-market leadership from these levels, however, appears rather far-fetched. We are, at current levels, moreover, enjoying an historically low level of stock prices at a time when what may well be a protracted earnings recovery appears underway. This sort of thing is hardly a precursor of a typical bear market. As we have reiterated almost to the point of distraction, all of the evidence regarding the market's direction is not yet in. Yet, it would be unwise, in our view, consciously or unconsciously, to project the last year's action indefinitely into the future. Dow-Jones Industrials (l200 p.m.) 930.72 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 99.47 Cumulative Index (5/19/77) 669.38 AWT/jb ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or IIxpresslon of opln!on or any other mal1er herein conlcllned IS, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or Indirectly, on offer or Ihe solicitation of on offer to bvy or sell anv security referred 10 or me'llioned The motter IS presented merely for the conveJ'!nnce of the subSCriber. While .JVe believe Ihe sources of our Informa tlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guaranlee the accuroty thereof nor of the stotement mude herein Any action 10 be token by the ubcrlber should be based on hiS own mvestlgatlan and mformallon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporollon, and Its officers or e'T1ployecs, may now have, or may lotcr toke, poslt'OM or trades In respect 10 any seCUnties menlloncd In thiS or any future Issue, and such poslllOn may be different from any views now or hereofter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc which 1 registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 lis mvestmenl adVISOry and othel customeu Indcpendenlly of any stolemen! mode In this or In any other Issue Further informatIOn on cny security mentioned herein IS oVOIloble on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08!540 DIYISION OF MEM8E' NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE May 27, 1977 I…., -c hara- cter i zeWd tehealrlruidajebdr last week to the rather obvious fact 'stock-mai'Keeaverages-for-the'besrP that the sideways action which had art'bf 1976;;77 -would is-omeday;,cb-me- – — to an end. This week's action tended to suggest that that someday was still off at some in- definite point in the future. On Wednesday, May 18, the Dow closed around the 942 level. At that price, it was flirting with a breakout from the calculated downtrend channel measured from the December 31, 1976 high, and a number of stock market areas were showing some signs of underlying firmness. Bullish hopes, however, were soon dashed as the Index, in the next five trading sessions, ptunged some 40 points to return again to around the 900 level. We are once more, apparently, back at square one. It is, perhaps, worthwhile to see if we can put what is going on into historical per- spective. The Dow, at Wednesday's low, was down just over 10 from its 1976 closing high of 1004.65. Measured from the three-month-earlier September high of 1014.79, to date the absolute high for the current cycle, the decline was just under 11. Neither of these figures should be too terribly startling. Stock market history in the post-Worid-War-ll period finds itself well supplied with examples of market drops which have extended to the 10-plus level without having developed to the 20 threshold generally used to categorize major bear markets. The 1946-49 period, one not without resemblances to the current one, contained no fewer than three such drops. Most major bull markets in the period in question have been interrupted at least once during their course with intermediate-term declines of around the current magnitude. One, indeed, has occurred already during the course of the current upswing, the Dow having dropped off 11. 07 —–OetWeen JuryanaOctoJ5er, r97The last previous-Sun market-, that of 1970'73, was interrupted- by a 16 per cent drop during the middle part of 1971. We are, thus, in one aspect,at least, on not totally untrodden ground. Market swings, however, as we have often pointed out, have two attributes — those of amplitude and time. It is the latter of these two attributes that lends a somewhat dif- ferent quality to the current decline. Measured from the December high, it has gone on for 102 trading days and from last September, a dreary 172 trading days. The deep sleep actually has gone on for even longer. Although the Dow did, indeed, make a new high last fall, the current period of sideways action, by many market measurements, began sometime in February of 1976. It is this 15 months of inaction that tends to distinguish the current stock market period from so many of its predecessors. For example, the 1975 decline referred to above burned itself out in just 55 trading days, and the one in 1971, somewhat longer, was over in 146 days measured from high to low. To find a period roughly comparable to the present one, it is necessary to go back much farther into history. In 1953, the Dow took 176 trading days to go down 13, and between June, 1948 and June, 1949, it required 281 trading days to decline by 16 (Saturday sessions explain the fitting of that many trading days into a one-year period). In any case, the modest downward bias exhibited over the past year or so stands out fairly clearly as something not all that common. The central question, of course, remains. Does this week's weakness signify noth- ing more. than the continuance of this relativly modest erosion, or are w.e experiencing, with.the currentdownswing;the beginning of an accelerating drop leading into a major bear market phase — the familiar downSide breakout from an important top formation. For reasons discussed at length in prior issues, we incline toward the former view. The failure to follow through on the upside certainly suggests the possibility, nay, indeed, the probability, of somewhat lower prices. We think, however, these lower prices if they occur will fit squarely into the context of the rather dreary stock market environment which we entered some 15 months ago. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P CompOSite (1200 p. m) Cumulative Index (5/26/77) AWT/jb 903.32 96.62 651. 81 ANTHONY W . TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or exprenlon of opinion or any olher motler herern contolned IS, or a 10 be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or 'he OIiCIIOllon of on offer 10 buy or sell any security referred to Or menlloned The moiler 15 presented merely for the convef'ience of the subscnber White He belIeve the sources of our mformahan to be rei table, we m no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude '-Ierem Any achon 10 be taken by Ihe subscrtber should be based on hn own InveSligotlOn and Informahon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and Its ofhcers or employees, may now have, or may loter lake, POSItions Of trades In respect ta any seCUflliei mentioned m thIS or any future Issue, and such POSItion may be different from any Views now or hereafter expressed In thh or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, which IS regIstered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment advISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In Ihls or In any ather Issue FUr1her mformatlon on any secunty mentioned herem IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMDEII NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK. EXCHANGE – June 3, 1977 Readers of this letter by now are familiar with our view of the current dull stock market environment. The market continues to experience an erosion which to date has corrected the Dow- – – ..-.-; – – – – – – —– , – – – ..r- ……….. -'- –'' . approximately 11 from its September, 1976 high of 1014779. -In spite of the Dow'Jone's Inaustria-r— Average recently penetrating the 900 level reaching a cloSing low of 898.66 on Monday, it is diffi- cult for us to recognize this weakness as a precursor to a major bear market phase. Confirmed watchers of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average will immediately take issue with the above statement as clearly a downSide breakout from an important top formation has occurred. In the past, occasional reference has been made to Murphy's Law which states, If anything can go wrong, it will. More recently, atten- tion has been directed to O'Toole's Law which, Simply stated, says, Murphy was an optimist. Where could the Dow Watcher go wrong It is often maintained, as this letter has recently discussed, that the popular market averages because of a limited number of issues and weighting factors have been giv- ing a distorted picture of the stock market's true picture. The Cumulative Index, we feel, clearly underscores this. Started on May 1, 1964, this Index shows the average day-to-day percentage price change for all issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange. It, baSically, is computed by adding the daily percentage change of all stocks and dividing by the number of issues traded. We compute our Index by cumulating these percentage changes. In order to make the Index compatible to the DJIA, we used the DJIA April 30, 1964 close of 810.77 as a base. The Index, we feel, gives a reasonable proxy of the performance of the average New York Stock Exchange issue. Documenting the action of the Cumulative Index in relation to the DJIA can be a more valuable tool in formulating a forecast than merely relying on the DJIA. Utilizing a 20 filter on the Cumulative Index, the table below gives the value of the Cum- ulative Index at major market turning pOints since its inception, and the corresponding level of the Dow —..,c..-…,.,…….for. the. sa me .date,.toget!!E.'N,lth l'rclltag,Q!!an.ges4between el cIlpp)li,nt,. ——' 1- – Cumulative — -…,.-' Days Dow-Jones Date Index Change This Swing Industrials Change April 30, 1964 810.77 0.00 0 810.77 0 February, 1966 High 1095.03 35.06 452 995.15 22.7 October, 1966 Low 803.42 -26.63 164 744.32 -25.2 December,1968 High 1455.59 81.17 524 985.21 32.4 July,1970 Low 681.40 -53.19 390 669.39 -32.1 April, 1971 High 1060.13 55.58 205 950.82 42.0 November,1971 Low 827.06 -21.99 146 797.97 -16.1 March, 1972 High 1044.70 26.32 74 950.18 12.1 December,1974 Low 345.61 -66.92 703 577.60 -39.2 May, 1977 High 669.84 93.81 735 943.44 63.3 June 1, 1977 Low 649.37 – 3.06 9 906.55 – 3.9 A number of observations are apparent. It is interesting to note the number of trading days in each of the last two major swings. From the 1972 high to the 1974 low, a total of 703 days were ob- served, while the subsequent rally from the 1974 low to the recent May, 1977 high took 735 days. Hectic Wide swings in relatively short periods of time reminiscent of the late sixties-early seventies has given way to more orderly, albeit more lethargic, markets, not unlike recent months. If you accept the premise that the Cumulative Index is a proxy for the performance of the average NYSE issue, we find that in every case the Dow understates the extent of this performance. For example,the,Cumulatiye Index intheshort.period of,sixyears from its 1968 high'of-l'45559'foits – 1974 low of 345.61 has lost an incredible 76.26. In other words , we have seen a market which has seen the average stock lose three-fourths of its value over a Six-year period. The DJIA from its Dec- ember, 1968 high of 985.21 corrected to 577 .60 in December, 1974, a correction of 41.37 or approx- imately one-half that of the Cumulative Index. I n addition, from as recently as the March, 1972 high of 1044.70 on the Cumulative Index to its 1974 low of 345.62, a decline of 66.92was registered. What the Cumulative Index seemS to be saying is the speculative excesses of the late sixties has, in fact, been dramatically corrected. This excess has not been properly reflected in the DJIA. Conversely, the same is true in up swings. Since the October, 1966 low of 803.42 to the 1968 high of 1455.59, an advance of 81. 17 was registered in the Cumulative Index versus an increase of 32.4 in the Dow. More recently, the Cumulative Index, since the December, 1974 low of 345.61, advanced Significantly to the May, 1977 high of 669.84 resulting in a gain of 93.81. The DJIA for the same period has ap- preciated 63.3 from its December, 1974 low of 577.60 to a recent high in May, 1977 of 943.44. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 909.01 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 97.09 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cum\/j1A;t;;r\ti';n or cny ma-t(Onlamed orRJS ether IS, IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the soliCitation of on offer I buy or sell any seaJflty 'ton 10 be reliable we In referred no way to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor for of the the conver'lenCC of the subscriber stotements mude herein Any V'/llile we belIeve oct Ion to be token btyhethseo usu' ' b sscrolfbeorulrs hnf'dbou k e based on hi! own 'lnvesllgatlan and Informatlo(l Janney Montgomery posItions or trades In respect Ic any securities mentioned In thiS or any Scott, futuro tnc, 05 a 11S(le, and corporatIOn, and Its officers or such pOSitIOn may be different erflployees, may from any views now now ohra vhee,reoardf tmeraye.aprleedrsetthein, thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may gIVe adVice to ItS Investment 0 visoryon 0 er customers Independently of ony statements mode ,n Ih,s or en any other Issue Further Information on any securIty mentioned herein IS ovollable on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK eXCHANoe. INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE – June 10, 1977 , o-f-its19 77,Jt'r.ahd.e-i-nm.g-arrakne-tgeco,-nattinl–ue-ea- ss- t its schizoph –i.n—-s-o–far as-.t renic behavior, this time in the v he'Dow-J…..-t….-.-……. o-n-es-I-ndus..tr-i.a'l-A.. v-E!-r,ig'e icinity of the low end is-concerne'd;-'The, p6st'- Holiday market of May 31st saw that Index drop below 900 for the first time this year. However, the drop was quickly followed by a tepid rally which brought the average back up above that figure. It is no news to anyone that the market since the first of the year has remained in a rela- tively narrow trading range. The shape of that range, however, varies widely, depending on the aver- age at which one looks. Trading ranges are, after all, defined by J!ighs and lows, and the patterns of highs and lows have differed between the major averages. There have, during 1977, thus far, been five separate up-down cycles for the market with a sixth possibly now underway. The following table based on intra day figures, attempts to examine separately the highs and lows for each of the three major Dow-Jones Averages, the Industrial, Trans portation and Utility. HIGHS – 1977 The pattern of successive highs for the Dow-Jones Industrials shows an unrelievedly doleful pattern. No rally since the first of the year has been able to equal the high achieved by the previous one, with the average now almost 100 pOints below the year's high. For the Transportation Index, the picture is somewhat brighter. Neither the March or April rally equaled the January peak, but the early- May short-term rise brought that Index to new highs as did the subsequent advance into mid-May. A consistent pattern of higher peaks has been maintained ever since March. The best pattern, however, is shown by the Utilities. With the exception of March, every single rally has taken that average to new highs and, indeed, the intra day peak for Wednesday of this week constituted yet another yearly high, this achieved within a week of a new low by the Industrials and the day after a minor low made by the Trans portation Average. Strangely enough, the pattern of lows made by the indiVidual indices is somewhat unlike the pattern of highs. This is not true of the Utility Average which has maintained an unbroken uptrend with each successive minor low being higher than the last one, a formation similar to that of the in- dividual highs. For the Transportation stocks, successively higher lows have been posted ever since March-April, although that pattern apparently has been broken with the recent move to a new low below the May 9th bottom. It is the Industrials, however, that show the greatest discrepancy between peaks and troughs. — – -, Although'ea-ch'hew'IlIdustrial 'll'eak'nas'been-appreciablylower than the last,the'average'managed,to '-'- hold its April 5th low until just recently and, indeed, penetrated that low by only a minor amount. Thus, the Industrial pattern has been more or less one of a descending triangle — not, historically, a notably bullish formation. It is not quite clear what is to be made of this disparity in patterns. For this year, at least, the Utilities have shown a tendency to lead the other two indices, and, in this sense, the recent new high must be conSidered as being bullish. On the other hand, a similar leading tendency on the part of the Transportation Index appears to have disappeared in the recent decline, and whether it will reemerge remains to be seen. We have, in any case, one more set of numbers which strongly suggests the disparity which has existed in the marketplace during the past year. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 908 ..75 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 98.15 ANTHONYW. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (6/9/77) 658.51 AWT/jb –I , No statement or expression of OpInion or any otner motter herein contOlned IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, dtrectly or indirectly, on offer or the solicltotlon of on offer to buy or sell any secunty referred 10 or menhoned The molter Is presented merely for the convertence of the Sl,IbKrlber WhIle Ne believe the sources of our InformatIon to be reliable, we m no woy represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any action to be laken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own mvest,gat,on and mformotlon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc. as a corporat,an, and Its officers or employees, mol now have, or may later toke, pOSitions or trades In respect 10 any seCUrities mentiOned In Ih,s or any future Issue, and such POSition may be different ffom any views now or hereafter expressed In Ih,s or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whICh IS registered WIth the SEC as on investment adVisor, may give odvlce to Its Investment adVisory ond othel customers Independently of any slotements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any sccuoty mentIoned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VOAK STOCI( EXCHANGe, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOel( EXCHANGE June 17, 1977 One of the more perceptive and lucid wrlters regularly appearing in the Wall Street – . 10urilarisDr.- Irvlng Ktistol;-'res1dents-cholar a1 ther'A-merican EnterpriseInstitute and a—member'— of the Journal's Board of Contributors, which position ensures his regular appearance on the editorial page of that publication. His latest article, which appeared last Tuesday, is entitled, The Foxes vs. the Hedgehog, and it likens the current apparent disparity between the stock market and the economy to the ancient distinction between the hedgehog and the fox The clever fox knows a lot of little truths whlle the wise old hedgehog knows only one big truth. And adding up all those clever little truths never does bring one close to the one big truth — the simple wisdom — that counts. Dr. Kristol draws the distinction between the consensus economic forecast, at the moment unreservedly bullish, and the behavior of the market which, he says offers only melan- choly price/earnings ratios … and .. appears to foresee minimal economic growth (or none at all) and the probability of greater inflation. He goes on to note the prospect of a substantial increase in the 1978 Federal defiCit, the fact that consumer spending is being fuelled by debt rather than by increased purchasing power, and that productivity lags whlle Government-induced ',- inflation and high tax rates continue. The stock market, Dr. Kristol says, notes all these facts and incorporates them into its underlying theory which is hardly a theory at all, but simply an old-fashioned diagnosis of the conditions of economic growth. This is the one big truth the stock market knows the 'secret', of growth—which is no secret at all, except from certain economists and politicians. Now, we have little with which to quibble about Dr. Kristol's basic thesis, and we would hate to be put in the position of defending the rationale behind some of the economic think- , ing now coming out of Washington. As market technicians, a basic tenet of our faith has always – I -oeen thanhematKefltseU'!s-'''r!ghe'-moreoftentfian1ns'''wrong'';'i!ndwehegtlarly-p6intea.—-.–.-.1 out the utter futility of using economic forecasts to predict the stock market, since we are fully ,I, aware of the fact that the market has a far better predictive record than most forecasters. However, ; while the market often has an almost oracular record as a predictor, it often speaks in accents that are less than clear. Hence, it is probably worth some effort to decipher what the stock market is currently trying to say. I I .- – Let us take, to begin with, price/earnings ratios. They are, admittedly, historically low but they have, on the other hand, been so for some four years and, indeed, reached their low as far back as the end of 1974 — from which level they have recovered, albeit modestly. That low was reached after a high made in 1962, 15 years ago. Anyone who has studied the phenomenon is aware that the price that the market is willing to pay for a dollar of earning power tends to change over long (25 year) cycles. It is, thus, somewhat unfair to explain the current low level of this statistic totally in terms of skepticism as the prospects for economic recovery, however well-founded that skepticism might be. A much more important question is whether the long-cycle low for earnings multiples was, in fact, reached in 1974, a question to which the answer, even after three years, is not yet clear. The last time multiples reached their current levels was, of course, in the latter part of the 1940's, and conditions then were not totally disSimilar to those of today. As in the present case, recovery was underway, and, then as now, the market was evincing skepticism about that recovery, skepticism based at that time on the Depression that was supposed to follow World War II. It was the failure of that Depression to materialize that produced one of history's great bull markets. .,' . . – '—– The'problem'for-sTockniarket anilIYSls';'of course, s -noteconomic'foieiastlng7'Th-at I , i I ,i r I j ,,,. ! j activity, as Dr. Kristol rightly pOints out, is an uncertain one at best. It is, rather, the determina- tion of investment odds. Those odds shift in the investor's favor to the extent that potentially unfavorable developments become bullt into the market's price structure. Thus, whether the spectres that haunt Dr. Kristo1 — and, undoubtedly, the stock market — wlll, indeed, materialize in the present instance is a question we do not profess the competence to answer. Yet, while the market's current languor may be frustrating, we must confess our preference for a price structure obviously aware of potential trouble to one where, as was the case a decade or so ago, such trouble is blithely ignored. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p. m.) 920.45 ANTHONYW. TABELL S&P CompOSite (1200 p.m.) 99.88 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (6/16/77) 668.64 I I i 1 1 I ! j AWT /jb No statement or expressIon of opinIon or any alher matter herem contolned IS, or IS to be deemed 10 be, dIrectly or Indlrec1Ir.' on offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or selJ onr. security referred to or mentioned The matler IS presented merely for the convertenc;e of the subscriber Whl e e believe the Ources of our Informahon to be rehob e. we In no way represent or guarantee the occurocy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by Ihe subrlber should be based on hIS own If\veshgotlan and InformallOn Jenney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, as a corporation, and Its offIcers or employees, may now have, Or may rater tol.e, positions or trades In respect to ony secuntle, menltoned In thiS 0- any future Issue, and such POSitIon may be drfferent from any VleoNS now or hereafter expressed In this or any other luue Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc. which IS registered With the SEC os on IfIveslmenl advisor, may give adVice to Its Ir\Vestment advnary and other C\Jstomen Independently of ony stalements mode In thts or In any other Issue further information on any secunty mentioned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VOAI( STOCK EXCHANQE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE June 24, 1977 Trend lines have been a major weapon in the technician's arsenal for many years. – HlstoffcallY7ihese lii'ies-haveoeerldfawnUSr;tlieeyeoa11 -inetliod;,,slmply'by'ifpplylng-a–niler- -. – and pencil to a stock price chart. The advent of computer-stored price data allows employment of a more sophisticated technique — mathematical computation of a channel describing price action between any two points in time. The method involves choOSing a given prior-high and low, computing a channel which describes price action between these two pOints and projecting that channel to the present to ascertain whether it is still descriptive of current price action. The technique has been applied in the chart below. INTERMEDIATE &MINOR COMPUTED OOWNTRENDS – DJIA .J.nE 22. 1m f f — OCT ,.,. … ' Ff81m '971 -' 177 We have, in recent history, two recognizable highs for the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, that of 1014.79 on September 21, 1976, and the year-end high of 1004.65. The most ,-;orecent low is,.of course,898.66 on May.31,1977. The,chart presentsg,computed channels —-.,' drawn from each high to that low. – – As can be seen, both channels have largely contained price action since their in- ception. The wider one, from the September high, is declining at the rate of .28 DJIA pOints per day and is some 78 pOints wide. The more recent, dropping at some. 53 points per day, is 52 pOints wide. The upper limit of the first is now around 961 and the latter at 932. Both channels have now been established long enough and fit the data closely enough to assume, in our view, some importance. We think eventual upside penetration of the two channels (to be decisive that penetration must last for a few days) will constitute an impor- tant first indication of reversal of the market's current slow downtrend. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 928.77 ANTHONYW. TABELL S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 100.99 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (6/23/77) 677 ; 23 pWT/jb No totement or expression of opinion or any olher moIler herein (Contolned IS, or IS to be deemed fa be. directly or indirectly, en offer or Ihe SollCllotlon of on offer to buy or sell ony security referred 10 or menlloned The motler 15 presented merely for the conveltlence of the subscriber While oNe believe the sources of our Informa- han to be relioble. we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mode herein Any octlon fa be token by the slJbscnber should be bosed on hiS own mvestllJotlon and infOrmotlon Janney Montgomery Scott. Inc. as a corporation, and Its officers or e'l1ployees, moy now hove, or may later toke, poslhons or trades In respect to any securltlE!S mentioned In thl or ony future Isue. and such pOSition moy be different from ony views now or hereofter expressed In thiS or ony other Issue Janney Montgomery xott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may gIVe odvlce to lIs inVestment adVisory ond other customers Independer'ly of (my statements mode In thiS or In any other ISsue Further information on ony security mentIOned herein IS avalloble on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER – 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VOAK STOCK eXCHANGe, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE — …. –July …. r-,.0- …. –,.- 4. ..–..- –Y – ………. -r l;;l-977—'—-..;,;- -F-r Independence Day eve is an appropriate time for our traditional examination of the widely- heralded summer rally. Herewith, then, that examination with the usual cautionary notes. Ending Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Total ONE-MONTH PERIODS Advances Declines Avg. Chg. 34 17 1. 24 28 23 0.04 28 23 -0.08 28 23 0.93 26 25 -0.81 25 26 0.93 33 18 1.90 33 18 1.47 22 29 -1.36 28 23 -0.24 29 22 0.40 38 E 1.37 352 260 0.48 TWO-MONTH PERIODS Advances Declines Avq. Chg. 34 17 2.58 29 22 1. 28 25 26 -0.14 31 20 0.93 30 21 0.35 25 26 0.08 32 19 2.78 35 16 3.53 30 21 0.07 25 26 -1. 56 31 20 0.20 ..1! E 361 251 1.80 0.99 The table above shows the action of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average in every one-month and two-month period from 1926 to 1976. For each period the number of instances when the market ad- –..-.vanced-and-declinedis-shown,together-with-the average'PercentageChange;for–theper-i)d.-A-pre- '….,;'- liminary look at the table, indeed, supports the notion of a probable summer rally. The average monthly advance for the Dow over the period has been .48, whereas the average performance in July is an advance of 1.90, almost four times as great. Likewise, the average advance of 3.53 for the two months ended August is a good deal larger than the average two-month advance. It would, Indeed, appear that the expectation of an advancing market during July and August has some solid grounding in fact. Having made this statement, however, a few doubts must be raised. The first factor which needs to be pOinted out is that a large part of the high average advance for the summer period rests on the accident of the 1932 bottom's having occurred at the end of June. Thus, July and August of that year produced the largest two-month advance In stock-market history, an astounding 70 rise. If this single year is eliminated from consideration, the results for July and August are much closer to normal. Secondly while it Is true that July and August do show significant pluralities of advancing months over declining months, It must be remembered that advancing periods tend to outnumber declin- Ing ones over the 51 years by almost three to two. When standard tests of statistical Significance are applied, the period with the clearest seasonal action Is the month of December, wblch is why this letter has always emphasized the Importance of the year-end rally. Likewise, the tendency, toward a declining market in September Is statistically more significant than that of a rise in July or August. Interestingly enough, none of the other months show any discernible seasonal pattern what- soever. Lastly, in looking for seasonal patterns, it Is wise to examine the most recent data to see-If it seems to be deviat-lng from-the past,and'ilndeed'i thisis apparently the-Gase–T-he,eleven – – -'- 'C-t years between 1966 and 1976 have produced three rallies and eight declines in July and five rallies and six declines In August, and the two-month period ended August has produced four rallies and seven declines with an average percentage change of -1.63. Interestingly enough, a new seasonal tendency, not heretofore apparent, seems to be emerging — that of a decline In May-June. Every May, from 1965 through 1977, with the exception of 1972 and 1975, has produced a declining market, and twelve of the thirteen years since 1965 have shown a two-month drop in May-June. The moral of the whole exercise, we suppose, Is that the stock market is a difficult and changing beast, and, while certain seasonal tendencies are apparent, they constitute only one factor In what is Invariably a highly complex equation. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 910.96 ANTHONYW. TABELL So. P CompOSite (1200 p.m.) 100.06 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (6/30/77) 681.22 AWT/lb No talement or e)(preS510n of opinIOn or cny other matter herem contained 1S, or IS 10 be deemed to be, dlrediy or indirectly, on offer or the SoilCllotlon of an oHer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter I presented merely for the canver'lencc of the subscriber While He believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we m no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mode herein Any action to be token by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own mvesl1gatlon and information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and lIS officers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, positions or trades 10 respect to any seCUnlles mentioned 10 thiS or any future ,ssue, and such poslhon may be different from any views now or hereafter e)'pressed '1'1 thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, whld! 15 registered WIth the SEC as on Invcstment adVisor, may 9,ve advlf;e to Its Investment adVIsory and other customers mdependently of ony statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue forther information on ony seC\Jflfy menTIoned herein IS available on request

,———————————————————————————————- TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK eXCHANoe, INC MEMBEA AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE Tuly 8, 1977 high. We write this week in celebration of the stock market's achieving a new bull-market – — – – Noiw-ehavenot be-ensom-ewhere in70uterspace'for-the'pasts-lxmonths ;-.and;yes i we are aware that the DOW-Tones Industrial Average has spent the last seven trading days headed generally southeast toward a confrontation with its May 31st, 1S-month low. We are perfectly willing to stand by the statement above. The following chart shows, on the upper set of bars the Dow, on the middle line our dally breadth index, and on the lower set of bars our Cumulative Index. As the chart clearly shows, breadth achieved a new peak a week ago, on Tune 27th, and the Cumu- lative Index scored a new high as recently as this Tuesday. In the case of the Cumulative Index, the recent high is the second consecutive major peak scored, the last one having occurred in May. It is, of course, possible to analyze this strange phenomenon — a confirmed downtrend in the Dow while other indices move to new highs — in great depth and complexity. We suspect, however, that a simple analysis will suffice. That simple analysis hinges on a basic tenet of ' t e c h n ical 'w o r k , . l . e . ,. . th e stoc ….– k,Lmarke t t-,e-…l.. ls its own story — best, and there is .,,-. little ne. ed ….. ., to worry about a market which iso, reg-ularly, making new highs. That is precisely what the market, as measured by the latter two indices, is doing. The only other question which need be raised concerns the validity of such indices as breadth (based on numbers of stocks advancing and declining) and our Cumulative Index (rep- resenting the average percentage change of all NYSE issues). Suffice it to say both, in our view, are statistically valid representations of the market as a whole. This being the case, it seems to us, there is little need for excessive concern, whatever the Dow may do, as long as these in- dicators continue their current buoyant action. Dow-Tones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 909.35 ANTHONYW. TABELL S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 100.06 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (7/7/77) 683.06 AWT/Jb No stafement or exprelSlon of opinion or any other motler herem contolned IS, or . to be deemed 10 be, dlrect!y or indirectly, on offer or the solicitation of on offer to buy or sell ony secuflly referred to or mentioned The motter 1 presented merely for the conver-Ience of the suscllber While -Ne believe !he sources of our mforma lion to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mde herein Any action to be token by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Inveshgohon and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, aS a corporation, and Its offICers or employees, may now have, or may lofer toke, POSltlOM or trodes In respect to any SeCUrities mentioned In this or any future ISSUe, and such position moy be different from any views now or hereafter elpressed In thiS or ony other Issue Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc. which IS registered With the SEC 0 on Investment odvlsor, may gIVe adVice 10 lIs ,vestment adVISOry and other customers ,dependently of any stolements mode Ifl thiS or In ony other Issue. further 1I1formotlon on any security mentioned herein IS aVailable on requesl

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF' MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( eXCHANGe July 15, 1977 As full-time students of the stock market, we have never ceased to marvel at its Infinite ,….;.v.a..rlety. For all this variety, however, there are still occasions when the regular commentator on the market finds Itd1fficurfto'iine'arths'6if,irthlng-new abOutwnichtYwritForbecome-s'tked of harpl.ngofi … the same old familiar story. For the better part of a year now, this letter, we will be the first to admit, has been attempting to play variations on the same theme, that theme being the fact that the popular market averages are understating the performance of the bulk of listed stocks and that indeed, while the aforementioned averages are moving down, the great bulk of issues Is actually moving ahead. To this end, we featured in last week's issue, a chart — the product of one of our newest mechanical aids, a plotter linked to our computerized data base. The chart was Intended graphically to demon- strate the fact that, at the very same time that the Dow-Jones Industrial Average was moving down- ward, da lly breadth and Our Cumulative Index — two indices we feel to be most representative of the whole universe of listed issues — were actually moving to new 1974-77 highs. We have been reiterating this theme for so long now that the regular reader has undoubted- ly either tuned us out or accepted the thesis. Having proved to our own satisfaction, at least, what is, in fact, happening in the marketplace, some speculation is perhaps in order as to why it is happen- ing and precisely what the phenomenon means. Unfortunately, much of the discussion can be little more than Just that — speculation. The reason Is that this sort of action is, to a great degree, historically unprecedented. Take the tra- ditional behavior of market breadth, for example. Breadth indices, which are based on the number of issues advancing and declining, have generally moved to new highs along with the averages through- out the early stages of bull markets. As those bull markets reached a mature stage, breadth has tended to lag and, uniformly in the post-war period, has either peaked out well in advance of most market aver.l'gsor begun drastlcally.to underperform.those averages as the market began to decline. All of – thetechic;l -literature-on breadtha'r;alysls,-tlierefO're, has-c-;;-ntered On\letectlnc;j breadth underperform- ance as a harbinger of market weakness. The phenomenon of breadth outperforming the averages, as It is now doing, is one that has received little or no analytical effort. The phenomenon Is also difficult to reconcile with the normal behavior of high-grade vs. low-grade stocks. To the extent that the market averages represent highet-grade issues and unweighted indices of the broader market reflect the action of low-grade Issues, we quite clearly have the phenom- enon of second-tier stocks moving ahead while first-tier stocks decline. This, however, does not square with traditional patterns. Historically, as upswings reach a mature phase, secondary and tertiary issues tend to move ahead sharply as the speculative confidence engendered by a long bUll market begins to take hold. Generally, though, at this stage, market averages are also moving up, albeit at a slower rate. Furthermore, as noted above, the terminal phase of a bull market is generally characterized by a topping out of the broad mass of stocks while the hlgher–grade Issues represented by the averages tend to move ahead. With the Dow not having made a high since September, this Is at distinct odds with what Is happening at the present time. Furthennore, It seems to us, what is taking place with the broad bulk of listed stocks can hardly, in our view, be characterized as speculative activity. Rather, we have moved from a period 2 1/2 years ago, when all stocks were ridiculously cheap by historical standards, to a point where that undervaluation has been at least partially corrected In the case of most better-known equities. The result has been a catch-up phase on the part of secondary stocks,whlch still represent uncommon historical value. ,-0,. Weare, f.inally ,unable,to,refra.ln.from,commenting on,recentbehavlor .in the. light of-the…,.. grOWing interest in indexing — gearing an institutional portfolio to match the performance of an average. This interest arose out of a period in which many portfolios failed to match the performance of market averages. We have now, during 1977 at least, apparently entered a period where the average stock is outperfonnlng the market averages by a statistically demonstrable margin and where even randomly selected portfolios apparently have a good chance of beating the averages. The emer- gence of this unprecedented behavior at this particular point in time may, In view of indexing activity, be something more than pure accident. DOW-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p. m.) Cumulative Index (7/13/77) AWT/Jb 904.00 '99.80 684.35 ANTHONY W TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No slclemenl Of eXpression of opmlon or any other motte herein contatned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dnedly or indirectly, on offer or Ihe solicltotlon of on offer to buy or sell any setunty referred 10 or mentioned The motter I presenled merely for the converlence of the subscrIber While we belIeve the sources of our informa- tion to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor af the statements mude herein Any ac/lon to be taken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own Investlgahon and Information Janney Montgomery Sco11, Inc, as a corporation, and Its offlcer or employees, may now have, or may later toke, po,lttons or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOltlon may be different fro'll any views now or hereafter epressed In thiS or any other ISSue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which 15 registered With the SEC as an lneStment adVisor, may give adVice to 115 Investment adVisory and othel customers IIldependentJy of any statements mode III thiS or In any other Issue Further information on ony security mentioned herein IS avollable on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STA.TE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER New YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE July 22, 1977 — — — ——' .One of the things the stock market has been consuming in its meandering – around'the-9DO-I000 level in t….h-e-.Dow fo,-r'the past–s.i-x- te-en mo- nths fs-tim- e. — T- hi-s-,e-ro-s-i-on –of , time has, not without reason, caused a certain degree of malaise among investors. Most people are aware that, historically, market upswings do not tend to extend beyond a certain tlmeframe before ultimately giving way to bear markets. The date on which the current market phase began is now, of course, a known quantity. It is December, 1974, at least if one uses the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a market measure. (If the S&P 500 is used, the bottom was two months earlier.) As we conclude July, that date fades two years and seven months into the past. It is, therefore, perfectly reasonable to ask whether the current cycle is not approaching a mature, or indeed a senile, phase. A great deal of serious analytical work has been done on the stock market periodicity, and it has been discussed in this space at some length in the past. A fairly well- known phenomenon is generally called the four-year cycle. This term is only a bit of a mis- nomer. There is indeed a roughly regular pattern to stock market history for the entire 20th Century, exhibiting a cycle approximately four years in duration. The actual average length of these cycles over nineteen instances in the 20th Century has been some 42.3 months. This is a bit shorter than four years, but if one looks at more recent history, the appellation is more accurate. Taking into consideration only cycles since 193B, the mean length is 4B.3 months, and if one takes the post-war period only, it is 51 months. –,– -'—'– –. -,,——- -' At this pOint, one fact must be emphaSized. When we talk about length, we are talking about the entire cycle—both up and down phases. (All of the time periods referred to in this letter measure from market-low to market-low). Since one fixed low point is now known, we can thus use history as a guide to the possible dating of the next market bottom. Using the century-long average, that bottom should occur around June of 197B, and using only the post-war experience in computation, one would expect it in March of 1979. The shortest cycle on record in this century is 36 months, producing a possible low as early as December of this year, and the longest on record is 56 months, which would stretch the next low point out to August of 1979. However interesting the above may be from a scientific point of view, it is singularly unhelpful for practical investing at the moment. With the Dow, even at current levels, up over 300 pOints from its low, one is hardly interested in the date of the next market bottom. He is rather concerned with the shape of the cycle, knowledge of which might point out the date of a market high—possibly even a market high which has already occurred. On average, cycles in this century have spent just under 70 percent of their time advancing. This is true also in the post-war period but in this case, the pattern is interesting. The first four cycles since June, 1949 spent BO percent of their span in an advancing phase. The last two (October, 1966-December, 196B and May, 1970-January, 1973) have -only spent 60.perc!nt of ,their totalJife advancing,.-What is-interesting at the-moment is that we are now approaching, although we have not yet reached, that 60 percent figure for the current cycle. What cycle work tends to suggest, we think, is that there is still more room in the historical tlmeframe for new highs to be achieved on the current upswing. What could also be suggested by a continued rising phase throughout the rest of 1977 is a return to the highly bullish sort of cycle shape which categorized the period from the 1940's to the 1960's. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 921.26 ANTHONYW. TABELL S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 101.57 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index 692.32 AWT!jt No statement or expressIon of opinion or ony other matter herein contolned IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or ,ndirectly, on offer or Ihe SOIICllol,on of on offer to buy tlon to or sell ony security be reliable, we m referred no way 10 or mentioned The motler '5 presented merely represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor for of the the convenience Motemen!s m of ud the subSCriber e heem Any While Ne believe action 10 be fa!.;en yheIheousrucbssconfbeorursanuftdomkbee based on his own positions or trades Invesllgatlon and mformatlon Janney Montgomery In respect to any securities menlloned m thiS or any Scali, future Inc, os a Issue, and corporation, and Its a,f'eers or such posLtlon may be dlfferen employees, may from any views now now have, or may later or hereaJter e)(prese d h,n' Ihls or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whICh 15 registered With Ihe SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVICe to Its Investment a vlSoryon at I'll customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any security mentioned herem IS avaIlable on request