Tabell’s Market Letter – July 18, 1969

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 18, 1969

Tabell's Market Letter - July 18, 1969
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Walston &Co.Inc Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OVER 100 OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER July 18, 1969 Although half of the week was spent in a rallying phase, the market gave little evidence that it had reversed the long slide that has characterized the year to date. The decline com- tinued unabated on Monday and early Tuesday with an intra-day low of 832.79 being reached on the Dow. A rally began at mid-day Tuesday, and continued through mid-day on Thursday with an intra-day high of 863. 04 being reached, but late selling pared most of the earlier gains and on Friday most popular averages slid back to levels just slightly above the lows posted at the start of the week. The present decline on a closing basis has brought the Dow down some 14.620/0 over 149 trading days, and the Standard & Poor's 500-Composite down 12.750/0 over a period of 151 trading days. It may perhaps be worthwhile to try to devote a bit of effort to setting these declines in historical perspective. If we define a major market downswing as one extending 100/0 or more, there have been, in terms of the S&P, 58 such downswings from 1928 to date, including the present one. Of the 57 previous drops, 50 have been greater than the present decline to date In other words, on the average, a worse decline than the present case has occurred a little bit less than twice a year The present drop, therefore, cal. hardly be characterized as a unique historical phenomenon. The following table shows the 18 declines of 100/0 or more that have taken place since 1942. The reasons for beginning the list at this point, incidentally, are something more ar- bitrary The experience of the 1930's is of little use to us in this particular case since un- failingly during that period market drops were shorter and steeper than the present one, having an average length of 34 days, with no decline than 96 days without a 100/0 recovery The length of the present drop places it the context of the post-1942 pattern Date of High Date of Low S&P 500-Decline s Aver. Daily Decline Sept 1941 July 1943 Feb. 1946 May 1946 Feb. 1947 July 1947 June 1948 June 1950 Jan. 1953 Sept. 1955 Aug. 1956 July 1957 Jan. 1960 Dec. 1961 Aug. 1962 Feb. 1966 Sept. 1967 Nov. 1968 April 1942 Nov. 1943 Feb. 1946 Oct. 1946 – 28 65 I & . \\'!V 13 5W cOo 17 i' 93 Mar 1 – .3 – 4 81 182 June 20 57 281 July 19 – 14 02 24 Sept. 195 -14.82 176 Oct. 19 -10.59 12 Feb. 1957 – 14. 78 132 Oct. 1957 -20.66 70 Sept. 1960 -13.39 205 June 1962 -27.97 135 Oct. 1962 -10.52 43 Oct. 1966 -22.18 167 March 1968 -10.11 110 July 1969 (to date) -12.75 151 .157 .115 .597 .287 .190 .078 073 .584 .084 .882 .112 .295 .065 .207 .245 .133 .091 .084 As the table quite clearly shows, the present decline has so far been one of the smallest in recent market history. This, of course, affords little comfort since there is no assurance that it cannot continue further. What is more interesting, however, is that the 151 trading days so far have carried this dip longer in time than all but five of the previous drops, and the decline of 1948-49 is the only one which was significantly longer than the present one to date. The final column, which shows the average daily percentage decline, is also of interes The steepness of the recent drop has been entirely unlike that of such major bear markets as 1946,1957, 1962 or 1966. So far, it has been most reminiscent of such de- clines as 1947-48, 1953 or 1960. Again, it must be reiter& ed that none of the above constitutes evidence that the decline may not continue further over the near term. On an historical basis, however, the case again an extreme drop from these levels, or one continumg over an extended period of time, is a fairly strong one. DOw Ihd 5'; '92- -. , Dow-Jones Rails 201. 52 ANTHONY W. TABELL … ,-r.'. … …- WALSTON & CO. INC. 'ThiR mllrket (Otter lS Jluhhahen for conVenLl'nce '\nd Illformatlon and 1'0 not an offer to sellar .1 …ohltatlOn to hU) .my dL!lCus.sed The In- ormatlOn WliS obts\lned rom sOUl'ct-q we bchl'\'(' to lie lchahle, but v,e 11o nut guarRntee Its accurlcy \\'aJston 8. Co, (ne. and Its officels, directors or AWTambma.y have an mterest In or 11Ul'chale Rnd '1ell the …..cuntltS refl.'rred to herem WNsol a., , .,, ,&…..

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