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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 18, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 18, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - March 18, 1960
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—————— — Walston &Co. FILE Mem bers N elO YOT; Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER March 18, 1960 Stock market cycles have a tendency to repeat themselves. On February 17th, the Dow-Jones Industrial average made a new low at 603.34 and then rallied sharply for the next few days. At' the time, as was pointed out in this letter, short term indicators turned favorable but there was no improvement in such intermedlate term graphs as upside-downside volume, the advance-decline raho, etc. The short term buy signal shortly reversed itself and the averages made another low on Wednesday, March 9th. From that point the general market turned upward and the high..-f 90 Wednesday. Sq far, th!'\VeekslI!arket action has been very similar-to that of three weeks ago. Although a short-term buy signal has been given, intermediate term indicators remain unfavorable to neutral and, so far, the market has not built up a sufficient base to indicate an immediate upside mov of other than trading-rally proportions. However, two months have now been spent in, roughly, the 595 -640 range. Further backmg and filling within this range would be the most healthy thing that could happen to the market and, if it contmues, a base could be built up for quite a worthwhile move. Meanwhlle, prudence remams the best policy. As was pointed out last week, declmmg and consolidating markets provide excel- ent opportunities to single out individual issues which are acting better than the market as a whole. Such issues can be consldered strong candldates for purchase on any minor weakness which may take place. Relative strength measurements have recently turned sharply favorable on two major groups, grocery chains, and building materials compa- nies. Wlth this in mind, two stocks in each of these groups are being added to our recommended list. Grocery chains were one of the outstanding equity to early 1959, during which period many stocks in t ver 1000/0. Smce that hme, most issues have held m rather t 'ng ges, thus form- ing sizable potential bases. Recent improvement i(\..le)lativ ength indicates that the breakout from- these trading-ranges te'upstde-;— — — — — — WINN-DIXIE STORES (45) 1951. Latest full-year 2& gs increase in every year since for the year ending June 30,1959 and results for the first hal 1 m 'is one of the few co p tt s year were 1. 27 vs. 1.11. The stock onthly dividend and the 10 monthly rate provides a yiel 0;, c ' lly, ability to reach 47 would indicate 70. KROGER COl\ Y 5 rned 2.06 per share in 1959 vs. 1.76 in the prior year, and further ex a is possible for 1960, as an aggressive modernization program is pursue he recently-raised 1. 10 dividend provides a 3. 170 yield and upside objective is 46 followed by possible higher levels. Many of the building materials stocks have also held in narrow trading ranges recently and upside breakouts would indicate considerably higher levels. Abihty of BESTWALL GYPSUM (41) to reach 43 would indicate 71 and a penetration to 58 on GEORGIA PACIFIC PLYWOOD (49) would indicate 87. Both these patterns could broaden. Bestwall Gypsum is the third largest factor in the gypsum industry and is currently in the midst of an important modernization program designed to improve efficiency and increase capacity. While no immediate improvement in residential building activity is looked for, any future increase would probably have a more bene- ficial effect on Bestwall than on its competitors and eventual earnings could be well above the 2.40 earned per share in 1959. Heavy capital requirements have made it impossible to pay cash dividends but small stock dividends have been paid annually. Georgia Pacific has greatly enlarged its timber holdings in recent years and these holdings give the common stock impressive asset value. Earnings in 1959 were 2.55 per common share, and the current dividend rate of 1.00 has recently been ,upplemented by quarterly 170 stock dividends. The stock is regarded as an attrac- hve long term holding. Dow-Jones Industrials 616.42 Dow-Jones Rails 145.44 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTat ThiS market letter is not. and under no Circumstances IS to be constl'ucd as, an offer to sell or a sohCltatlOn to buy any securitIes referred to herem The mformation contnined herem is not gunrantced M to accuracy or completeness and the furntshmg thcrco! IS not, Bnd under no Circumstances IS to be construed as, a representa- tIOn by Walston & Co Inc All e.prCSSlOns or opmlon are 9uhJcct to chllnge wIthout notice Walston & Co, Inc, ond Officers, DIrectors, Stockholders find Employees thereof, Bell and may have an mtcrest in the SCCUrIties mentIOned ,herein Thl'l market letter IS Intended and presented merely as 11. general, mformal commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete anniYSl9 AdditIOnal mformatlOlI with respect to any secUrIties referred to herem Will be urmshed upon r e q u e s t ' \\'N 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 25, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 25, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - March 25, 1960
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Walston &- Co. Inc Members New Ym'k Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER March 25, 1960 The Dow-Jones Industnals closed lower on Friday after reaching an intra-day high of 627.86 earlier in the week. The average has now spent almost two months in roughly the 600-640 range and could be in the process of forming a base pattern. At the moment, this potentlal base is not broad enough to indicate an extensive advance. Probably more time will be needed to broaden the potential base. My technical indicators gave short term buy signals at both the February low of 603.44 and the March low of 596.20, but as yet they have not given an intermediate term buy signal. This will also probably re- quire more time. My breadth-of-the-market index, which warned of the market top in- early January, 'nas-turnerupward, but not — upward trend. The downside count of the top formed by the highs of August and January at around the 680 level indicated, from a technical viewpoint, three possible downside objectives, depending on which type graph was used. One objective was 604. a second was 578, and the third and most pessimistic was 550. The first poss1ble downside ob- jective was reached at the February and March lows. Whether these lows prove to be the lows of the move is not yet certain, but improvemcnt in my breadth-of-the-market index would go a long way toward confirming this possibility. The rail average has had a sharp recovery from the March low of 137.63 to reach 147.37. This average reached the top of the 137-133 downside indication of the d1stri- butional top formed early in 1959. The rail average is now running into heavy overhead supply in the 145-160 area and 1tS action from here on should give some clue as to the ultimate possibihty of pushing through this overhead res1stance. The utility average has been the best performer of the three. At this week's high of 88.83, the utility average was back to the January fj1is is quite re- markable when it is remembered that the January Jgh in t e tr' average was 688.21 and Friday's close was 622.47. Also, a as the only one It ' 111. well its Actually, the price interest. Harold X. in a recent talk. Despite th a e more or less of only academ1c rJJ p, Inc. pointed this out very neatly average of thirty industrial stocks at 625 is 100 r in the industrial e e high of 525, sixteen of the thirty stocks their 1955-1957 tops. One is as much as 500/0 lower, and all six lower by an average of 200/0. In fact, only e1ght of the thirty stocks hav a y acted better than the average itself smce the 1955-1957 highs, and only four e really accounted for most of the rise in the average. They are General Foods, Eastman Kodak, Procter & Gamble and American Telephone & Telegraph. Proper selection between two stocks would have been the difference of 1000/0 profit and a 500/0 loss if both stocks were bought at the 1955-1957 highs. Regardless of the movement of the various averages, indiv1dual selections of . stocks w1ll be cf considerable importance in a market that will probably hold in a rela- tively narrow price area for quite some time to come. I envision a possible 700-550 range for the Industrial average for the next few years, with individual issues and groups showing diverse action. Ab1lity to find these issues and groups will be much more 1mportant than the ab1lity to forecast the swings back and forth in the averages. In the letter of March 11th, the groups thaLhave acted better than the market smce the September lows. You will note that most of the groups fall into two categories. The first category includes electronics, radio-TV issues, elec- trical equipment and office equipment. These are mostly glamor type groups in new industries with a vast growth potential. They are 'all selling at high price-earnings mul- hples. The second category mcludes telephone, soaps, soft drinks, food, tobacco and utilities. These are more or less defensive type'lssues selling,in most cases, at rela- tively reasonable price-earnings ratios. In the March 11th letter we also listed the groups that have been acting worse than the market. In this category you will find steel, automobiles, aluminum, oils, papers, rubbers and chem1cals. It is interest- ing to note that many of the m the Favonte Fifty of institutional investors are to be found in these groups. This might indicate an important switch in mvestor preference. ' ED1V1UND tV. IABELL llTrrod and ner-e'r'n'i's &'t.. lS to be construed as. an offer to ;cll or 11 solICitatIOn to buy any seCUritIes referred to herem The InformatIon iU!t.d'nhcuracy or completen(ss and the furnishing to be construed as, n represcntn. Alll'W,SSIJ1t1J1 of opllll!)n are subJect to change wlthouPMIhl'-\Vntl3'(dti &-.xco. M, aM'IOfflters. Directors, Stockholders and an lllterest In the securities mentIOned herem ThIS '!arket letter IS mtended and presented merely ns a genernl, on day to day market news and not as a complete analYSIS Addlltonal Information With resPect to any securities referred to herem Yufni!!il1'!d

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 01, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 01, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - April 01, 1960
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Walston &- Co. '';';';;;';;Inc Members Ne, York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS CHICAGO TABEll'S MARKET lETTER April 1, 1960 There have been many forecasts concerning the shape of the economy m the 1960's. One cynic has said that, if we are to believe what the stock market is telling us about the next decade, it will be one in which everybody spends their working life pushmg buttons on computers, quitting at 3 o'clock, going boating, taking pictures, and bowling in the evening. While thIS mayor may not be the trend of the economy, it is certainly a fairly accurate description of how the stock market has been acting in recent months. While the electronics, super-growth, and leisure tim issues – the perfoThfan'ce'Oftherest offlie' many old- line favorites, has been rather desultory. Recent study of relative strength charts shows that the following groups are all acting worse than the market as a whole Aircraft manufacturing, air transport, aluminum, auto, chemical, copper, drug, industrial machinery, international oil, paper, and steel. This type of action is of a special sigmficance when it is realized that, included in the above categories, are most of the classic growth stocks which have tended to outperform the market ever since 1949 and which constitute the backbone of most investment portfolios, both in- dividual and mstitutional. If the shift in investor preference which has become marked in recent months continues, most investment portfolios WIll have to be drastically revised if below average results are not to be expected. Beside the electronics and leisure time companies, another group of stocks has also tended to act better than the classic favorites in recent months. This includes a number of more solidly based, if less spectacular ai3 grocery chains, variety chains, soft drinks, meat packers, tin fo ,OWcos nd utilIties. An attempt to demonstrate the possIble reason s pr ence was made in our letter of February 19, 1960 which compare Pi. erica acco and Union Carbide. In th,S letter it was pointed out t e' 1954-1959, while AinerfcanTobacco's 0 -u – – – .fas- Union Carbide' fl, its had risen only half as much. The ft y liP e favorite fifty ,therefore, may well indicate that pric – a a companies have already be- are seeking sec it w' I od growth prospects, which are available on a cheaper basis I e ti to nings. ThIS lette h ,recently, tried to point up securities in thIS category. Two weeks ago we gested the attractiveness of the grocery chains. Leading equities in this group are available at 16-17 times earmngs, despite the fact that earnings of many companies have increased at ratios from 10 to 20 annually over the past ten years and this growth can be expected to continue. Ferro Corporation, which has been on our recommended 11st for some time, is available at only 8-9 times estimated 1960 earnines, yet not only is the company's basic business, porcelain fnt, growing as the architectural shift to curtain wall construction continues, but it IS also the largest supplier of molded fiberglass to the boating industry. Other stocks could also be mentioned. Soft drink companies are still selling at ratios which seemingly ignore the fast expanding teen-age market of the next decade; yari !ty chail1. be mherent in store modernizatlOn programs and expanding foreign markets; utilities have done little marketwise recently although the growth trend many companies have shown is expected to continue. In short, the 1960's may well be a decade in which growth will turn up in hitherto unexpected places. The successful investor will be the one who foresees these areas of growth and who purchases stocks in a position to participate therein at bargain basement prices. EDMUND W. TAB ELL Dow-Jones Ind. 615.98 WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 143.43 AIN't. dIllb .' This market letter IS not, and under no circumstances IS to be Rb, an offer to sell or a to buy any 'lecurltLes referred to herem The mformatlOn hereHI. is not y;uarnnte(';d as to aeeUl'acy or completeness and the urrnshlny; thereof IS not, and under no cIrcumstances s to be construed as, a representa- tJ(n by Walston & Co, Inc All c.prCSS(fnl of opInlOn arc subJect to change \\oithout notIce Walston & Get. Inc, nnd Offl('Crs, Director'!. Swckholr3ers and Empnyec'l thereof purl!hase sell nor mny have an mtere!t in the Re.urities mentIoned hereIn. ThIS m.o.rket letter lS mtended and presented met ely as n general, mformal on day to d.lY marcet news not as a complete- anabsls AddJbonal lllformatton re5pect to any referred to herem furm'lhed upon reque.t ….. ….– NLi.,.acro,,,. A, .ii,, ,J -1

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 08, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 08, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - April 08, 1960
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– FILE Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– Membel's New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHJCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 8, 196C The market advanced for the first four days of the week and, at present writing, is only fractionally lower today. At Thursday's intra-day high of 634.08, the Dow-Jones Industrial average was close to the late February high of 636.30. Ability to better this high would be a constructive development. The Rail average, at Thursday's intra-day high of 146.06, was quite a bit below the comparable February high of 152.66, but the rails are close to breaking a downtrend line that has been in effect since the January high of 161.00. Ability to push above this downtrend line would also be a favorable technical development. However, only a relatively small base pattern has been form'ed so In the Industrials, the upside potential appea.;s to be 65(f to 660 and'the-Rails would meet heavy overhead supply in the 150-160 range. It would appear probable that a broadening of the base somewhere along the line is needed. It is entirely possible that broadening could take place at a level conSiderably above the lows of 603.34 and 596.20 in the Industrial average reached in February and March. The action of my breadth-of-the-market Index is much more important, in my opinion, than the action of the averages. This Index showed very poor technical action late last year and made this letter extremely cautious at the January high. This Index has not yet reversed its downtrend, but is very close to doing so. For the first time since April, 1959, this Index is moving ahead with the market. It reached its high a year ago and turned down five months before the market reached its high in August. Previous to that, the Index turned upward in January 958, some four months before the broad advance started in the general market. At the moment, the Index is at the same point where it was at the late February high in the s mI'average. Ability of the breadth-of-the-market Index to better its last high oul ' i6ate a broadening interest in the market and a probable trend it intermediate term studies of breadth-of-the-marke, ch v te term. Other e and advances- decline ratios, are showing signs of pr ' a' ,although no definite signals have been given. On the I tota or-examllle, downside'volume did not equal the volume in the r k, the number of declining stocks was smaller – which would the inability of upside olum 0 volume started to in r 'n The unfavorable factor was ah&t,- indicating no buying interest. Upside ear the level reached in December. Ability to move above t The recen nother constructive development. kn m INTERNATIONAL PACKERS,LTD .. on our recom- mended list, has occa' ed a good deal of comment. The apparent reason for this weakness would se to be the result of the recent Argentine election in which the incumbent party of President Frondizi was roundly trounced. The actual effect of this development on International is rather difficult to assess. While it is true that the Frondizi government lost ground in the election, it still retains a parliamentary majority. Thus, in the two-year interval until the next election, it will be free to pursue its current policy of encouraging foreign capital investment which, in the eyes of many observers, has largely restored the health of the country's economy. At the end of this two-year pe riod, the government may well have gained back a good deal of the popular support lost in the last election. Meanwhile, the stock has not lost a bit of the speculative merit which caused our original recommendation. The Argentine cattle population, allowed to decline under the Peron regime, continues to increase and, in some two years, the rate of slaughterings should jump sharply above present levels. Thus, the leveraged earnings of IPK could show a substantial increase. Considering the fact that it is now selling at some five times last year's earnings of 3.11, the impact on the stock of such a rise could be substantial. Obviously, some speculative risk attaches to the stock due to the political situation, but for those who can afford this risk; the stock is rerecommended for purchase at current levels f 16 1/2. Dow-Jones Ind. 628.10 Dow-Jones Rails 144.96 EDMUND W. TABELL — WALSTON & CO. INC. Thl'5 market letter IS not, and under no Circumstances IS to be construed us, an offer to sell or a solicitatIOn to) buy nny securities referred to herem The Informntion contmned herem IS not gUIllnntced as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshntg thereof IS not. and under no Circumstances is to be construed us. a representa- tion by Walston & (J(). Inc. All expressions of OPIniOn arc subJect to chanp;e Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, nnd OffIcers, Directors, Stockholders and Emplo)-Ci!s thereof, purchase, sell nnd may ha\c nn mterest In the securities mentioned herem This market letter IS mtended and pr;esented merely as n general, mformal commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete analYSIS Additional mformatIon With respect to any securIties referred to herem Will be furnished upon r C Q u e s t . . ..

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 14, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 14, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - April 14, 1960
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Walstloncn. &- Co. FILE COpy Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CI-IICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER – April 14, 196U Last week's market action failed to change, one way or the other, the analysis outlined in last week's letter. With volume and trading interest largely dulled by holiday and tax considerations, the general list was essentially trendless for the first three days of the week and staged a minor rally on Thursday. Breadth-of-the-market indicators failed to show any of the possible improvements looked for in last week's letter. Assuming that such improvement will, ultimately, take place, the longer that it is deferred, the better it is for the.market. As has been noted, thebases formed so. far in the industrials and rails indicate only minor upward moves, and further backing and filling, broadening these bases, would be essentially bullish. Meanwhile, it is probably best for the investor to maintain the reserves continually suggested by this letter and to restrict commitments to issues which show real promise of outperforming the market. One such issue is discussed below. WINN-DIXIE STORES, INC. Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt Common Stock 49 1.20 2.4 16,000,000 6,335,467 shs. Winn-Dixie has acted well since originally recommended by this letter at 45 a month ago. A major upside breakout was subsequently posted, giving an upside objective of 63-70. The high reabhed a week ago was 52 3/4. A subsequent re- Sales-1960 – E Sales-1959 730,000,000 666,370,000 Earn. Per Share 1960-E Earn. Per Share 1959 — 2.50 2.22 action has half of this move and r levels should work M of– r of time. tec ally and fundamentally – e themost interesting in .- . Price Range -1960-59 523/4 – W Y chain group. Its growth record e past decade has been truly unusual. Note Sales and earnings fig s 'arnings in the fiscal year to end June, 1960 fiscal in are expected to better 2.50 per share vs. 2.22 in the previous fiscal year. This figure represents t tlia 30 increase in earnings as against the 1949-51 aver- age. This growth ra e . ore than three times that of the average of the ten leading grocery chains, ancO-avre than twice that of the next best company in the group. , – There have been two major reasons for Winn-Dixie's success. One is the strong growth trend of the area served. The company's stores are concentrated largely along the south Atlantic coast with heaviest concentration in Florida and the Carolinas. Florida is, of course, growing better than twice as fast as the country as a whole. However, the secular growth trend has been abetted by extremely astute management. During the eleven years to June 1959, the company opened 366 new stores,acquired 174 and closed 371 older outlets. During that period, average sales per store were more than tripled. This figure is one of the most important. indicators of supermarket efficiency as larger units are more profitable to operate than smaller ones. The sales-per-store figure for Winn-Dixie is currently the second highest of the ten major companies. This, plus excellent integration and cost control, gave Winn-Dixie a 2.10/0 post-tax profit margin last year, approximately 50 better than the average margin for the ten industry leaders. Despite the fact that Winn-Dixie has perhaps thA best operating record and growth potential of any of the major food chains, only a modest premium is being paid for the stock. Current prices mark it at some 19 times earnings,slightly above the average for the industry of fourteen. This spread does not appear excessive when the record is considered. The monthly dividend of 10, which could be increased later on during the year,affords a yield of 2.4. rT1\Tn W 'TD'T T o 15 not and under no cireumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to referred to herem The InformatIon 5 or completeness and the furnlshmg thei&rf1s'-r/bt', to be construed 85, a repreeenta- ui \ttfWeJillDCrlbdons (If opimon are subJect to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and an interest In the secUrtties mentioned herein ThIS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general, to news ang not as a complete analysis Addltlontl1 mformation With respect to any seeurlttes referred to herem,W L – – – — —- – –. – — , – — — — -…….

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 22, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 22, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - April 22, 1960
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Walston &- Co. Inc —.;… .. .t..y… .;;, Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CKiCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER April 22, 1960 This week's decline has brought the Dow-Jones Industrials back to the middle of the broad trading area in which it has held since February. It is still problematical whether the consolidation shelf of almost three months duration will eventually turn out to be a base for a further extension of the rise from the March lows, or whether it is only a hesitation in the downward trend that has been in effect since the first of the year. If the March low of 596.20 holds, this week's weakness broadens the potential base. As mentioned in previous letters, the downside count of the double top formed by the highs I.. lf August, 1959 and January, 1960at.around the 680 level indicated,from a technical viewpoint, three possible downside obj ectives, depending on which type graph was used. One objective was 604,a second was 578,and the third and most pessimistic was 550. The first possible downside objective was about reached at the,February and March lows. Our breadth-of-the-market index,which turned quite unfavorable in December, has failed to reverse its trend as yet. I, therefore, continue to advocate the cautious investment policy suggested at that time. I would not aggressively enlarge portfolios until one of two things occurred. (1) A decline to the 580-550 level, (2), An improvement in my breadth-of-the-market index. I The above has, necessarily, referred to the market as a whole. For the past three years, however, we have had an increasing number of instances where many stocks tended to act well even in declining markets. Therefore, it is necessary, whatever the outlook for the average, to continually examine what industrial groups are showing the best relative strength. Following are relative strength ratings of major industrial groups, as of last week. The cOl;n meaning 1. In a definite uptrend relative to the market. 2. In a definite uptrend, -but -some q\Y 1\ gn'S15f' the following W .- 3. Neutral, with some indications 4. In a definite downtrend relative 5. In a definite downtrend, taking V' 6. Ne1ural, with s st g. t 'Lf!ie . signs of possible strength are jor uptrend to -6- – – .. 1 I Dept. Stores Drugs Elec. Equip. Elec. Util. Electronics Grocery Chains Office Equip. Packaged Foods Soft Drinks Tobacco Variety Chains Roofing & Wallboard Canned Foods Heating & Plumbing Aircraft Mfg. Air Transport Auto Mfg. Chemicals Copper Oll-Intern'l Oil Producing Paper Railroads Steel Tire & Rubber Aluminum Cement Machinery Oil – Domestic A few notes on the above classification are m order. A glance at the list of groups acting relatively worse than the market will reveal practically all the indus- trial classifications that have for years formed the backbone of the institutional invest- ment portfolio. The groups acting better than the market can be divided into two categories, so-called defenSive issues and the super-growth issues such as electronics. Dow-Jones Ind. 616.32 Dow-Jones Rails 142.38 EDMUND WALSTON & CO.IN . ThIS market letter is not nnd under no circumstances 13 to be construed as, nn offer to sell or n sohcitatlOn to buy any securities referred to herein Tho mformation contnmed herem is not as to accuracy or completeness and the fUrnIShing thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances 18 to be construed as, khreltesentad t' b Walston & Co Inc All expre'!sions of OPInion are subJect to change Without nollce. Walston & Co., Inc., and Officers, Directors, Stoc 0 ers an thereof purchase sell and may ha.ve an mtercst in the Bccurilles mentioned herein Thl!, market lelter IS Intended and presented merelyhas n on dny to day mnrket news an9 not as a complete analYSIS Addlhonal mformation With respect to nny referred to erem JoI furntshed upon rt'quest . . — – —

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 06, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 06, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - May 06, 1960
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Walston &Co. ———lnc——— Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CI-\ICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 6, 1960 Monday's decline to an intra-day low of 596.61 tested the March low of 596.20. The rail average also held above the March low of 137.63 at Monday's low of 137.77. Both averages advanced from the lows and closed higher on the week. The rally in the rails has just about broken the four-month downtrend line from the January high of 161.0 Ability to hold above the previous lows is an encouraging technical factor. Ability of the breadth-of-the-market index to show above average action would be, from a technical viewpoint, a most constructive development and would indicate a reversal of the down- trend that has been in effect since January. This has not yet occurred. In the meantime, individual issues continue to move against the trend. In most cases, the new highs are being made by specialty growth issues and defensive groups rather than the favorite fifty. BESTWALL GYPSUM COMPANY Current Price 42 Much has been written about the Current Dividend Stock virtues of expansion from internal cash Current Yield None flow without recourse to outside financin A company almost unique in this respect Long Term Debt None whole potentialities seem unrealized by Common Stock 2,004,281 shares the market, is Bestwall Gypsum. Bestwall is currently the third largE S Sales-1959 39,420,000 Earned per Sh.-1959 2.40 United S includin wa 1 of gypsum dsaeathing, and plast r Market Range 1960-1959 45 3/4 – 335/8 e dol company will ha rge y pleted a program which or virtual doubling of plant capacity over that which existed been achieved without recourse to 1 1. doubling of capacity will have i y '!1B; . g and with no long termdebt other than a relatively . idea of the program's magnitude may be gained by 860,000. This' c se ture figures. In 1956, the company spent ,20;9;OnOin1957, 1,820,000 in 1958, and 6,880,000 in 1959. For 19 i e -;1.fitures have been budgeted at 17,000,000. In 1959, Bestwall had sales a '1'40 million and carnings after taxes of 4,820,000 or 2.40 per common s Pre-tax profit margin was an extremely high 22 1/2. It would be logical to xpcct profit margins to increase on thc addition of so much new and modern plant, but even without this possibility, the potentials for sharply increased earnings are excellent. It has been estimated that capacity for the company with all new plant completed is an annual volume of around 80 million to 90 million. Taking 80 million of sales and applying a reduced profit margin of 20, would result in per share earnings on the present common in the neighborhood of 4.00. Applying a 25 profit margin to 90 mill ion sales could produce earnings of as much as 50. It is estimated that this earning potential could be reached by 1964 at the latest, and possibly much sooner. Thus, the company has room to virtually double earnings in a space of less than three to five years. The stock's technical pattern would seem to confirm an optimistic fundamental outlook. The stock has a potential objective of 67, with support at 40-38. With cash being reserved for t!xpansion, no dividends are paid,but it has been the company's practice to reward stockholders with a small stock dividend each year. Dow-Jones Ind. 607.62 Dow-Jones Rails 140.85 AWTamb EDMUND W. TABELL I WALSTON & CO. INC. This market letter is not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed WI, an offer to sell or a soliCitation to buy any SecUTlt..!S referred to herem, The Information contamed herem is not guaranteed us to nccuracy or completeness and the furnlllhmg thereof IS not, and under no cIrcumstances 15 to be construed as, a representa tlOn by Walston & Co, Inc All expressions of opinion are subJect to change Without notice. Walston & Co. Inc, and Officers, Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchase, sell and may have an interest In the securities mentioned herem ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as n general, informal commentary on day to day market neW!! not as a complete analYSIS Addlttonal Information With respect to any securities referred to herem will be utJon – 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 13, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 13, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - May 13, 1960
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Walst on &Co. FILE COff Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 13, 1960 The market turned strong and active on Friday, and the Industrials advanced 8.16 points to reach 616.03The rail average, which reached a new intila- day low for the move earlier in the week, also rebounded from its low. The broad advance on increased volume strengthened the breadth-of-the market pattern. The index is very dose to giving an upward reversal signal Current Dividend Current Yield 34 2.00 5.9 AMERICAN VISCOSE CORPORATION . -'The-hazards selecting sec- urities in today' s market are nowhere better demonstrated than by the recent – Long Tcrm Debt Common Stock None 4,953,915 shs. price action of American Viscose Corp. The stock was originally recommen l- ed by this letter less than a year ago in Sales-1959 239,800,000 Earned per Sh. -1959 5.18 the low 50's. At that time it was pointec out that consolidated earnings were expected to better 6.00 per share. with Market Range 1960-59 55 3/8-32 7/8 Note Sales & Earning Figures Include equity in subsidiaries half of thesp. earnings coming equit in the giant Chernstrand Corporation, th countryl s second largest producer of ny- lon and acrylic fibres. Subsequent developments altered the picturc rather radically. In effBrt to obtain the larger tire cord market, DuPont and ChemlOtrand posted successive price reductio 0 qire cord. The se were promptly met by Viscose and other rayon Ten sult, of course, was that American Viscose, itself a major rayon owni of an important – – its.elf in ng.hit fJ'9m.both side.f'i. iJ..a , price war. Consolidated earnings vs 1. 34 in the previous quarter. on e I quarter of 1959 dropped to n earnings were only 5. 18. The stock began a that the stock has situation has caused largely by '10 of 1960. Parent cotr,.panv. 1 carried it to a recent low of 32 7/2. ve 1 IS fair to ask just how badly the tire cord t l . That poor results in the final 1959 quarter were w -downs, was proved by the report for the first quarter nings were a share, while equity in the earnings of Chemstrand and another subsidiary, added bringing the consolidat- ed figure to 1.12. 'This would suggest that consolidated earnings for 1960 should con- siderably bctter 4.00 per share. A glance at the companys balance sheet and cash flow would indicate that there should be very little question regarding continued paying of the 2.00 dividend. In other words, a little more than 8 times earnings is being paid for the entire Viscose operation. One-half to two-thirds of these earnings derive from Chernstrand and Ketchikan Pulp. Both companies are in businesses where comparable operations are valued at anywhere from 15-25 times earnings by the market. In addition, a sub- stantial portion of parent company earnings are derived from cellophane of which aAmerican Viscose is the second largest producer. These earnings in the fast grow- ing packaging field alsO-appear deserving of more generouscapitalization. Practi cally no attention is being given by the market to American Viscose l 50 ownership of Avisun Corporation, one of the country1s largest polypropylene producers. Avisun is now in initial production. That the company itself considers the shares attractive at the present price was evidenced by the purchase of 165,800 shares for the treasury in the first quarter of 1960. From a technical point of view, the stock has reached its downside objective – and appears to be forming the beginnings of a base around current levels. The 2.00 dividend, providing a yield of almost 6, makes downside risk minimal and the sto('lr is re-recommended to long term investors both for new buying and for averaging high- er cost holdings. T-' nrkl l C !W… EDMuND IABLLLis to be construed UB, an offer to seU or n solICitation to VV. referred to herem The mformatJon rt0ntaincd. herem IS EJic;\l.uracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof 15 not,\a'fttC.ulidei! c hTnr..'Olfii'trucd as, a U0iVi,tr,.J'(l!Ie1S& IJ!.S A te'F'l!ls of opinion are subject to change without notlce wllrtat1r.!t 0', c. b'ti'nfets, –nilCt1frs, Stockholders and l'mplDYees thercif, pure ase se an 'may have an lnterest in the securities mentioned herein. Thl'' market letter IS intended and presented merely as a general. 'Pcommenbu-Y on day to dal' market news not as a complete analysis Additional mformation With respeet to any seCUrItlcs referred to herem be . furnished upon request . … . . \\ –

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 20, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 20, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - May 20, 1960
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fiLE COPl Walston &- Co. ' Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CKICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 20, 1960 0espite the incredible performance of Khrushchev in Paris and the possible consequences therefrom, the events of past ten days have not greatly altered the technical pattern of the stock market. The Dow-Jones Industrial average still remains within the confines of the 637-596 range in which it has held since February. At the 596 low, the industrials had reached the first of three possible downside potentials outlined by the August-January double top at 'the 683-688 level. The first downside potential was 604. The others are 578 and 550. The first intra-day low was reached in March at 596.-'2'0—'1 was successfully testedearly inMay-at 596, 6f. The top in the rail average, formed at the 174-170 level in the first half of 1959, indicated a downside potential of 137-133. A low of 136.29 was reached earlier this month. The utility average has a somewhat different pattern. The low in this average was reached as early as September, at 84.64. This low has been successfully tested on four occassions, and in March of this year the downtrend line from the March, 1959 ,high of 95.07 was penetrated on the upside. It thus becomes a possibility that the general market has reached its low. This would become more positive if the breadth-of-the-market index improved. This index turned down in April, 1959 considerably ahead of the general market averages. It became quite bearish in December just before the Dow-Jones Industrial average reach- ed its high. Since January, the index has moved with the market whereas it had previous ly been acting worse than the market. This could indicate that an upward reversal in the breadth-of-the-market index could occur shortly. yet. While the averages advanced with increased trading activity on e fr hF'ee days of the week, there were more declining stocks than s0 k e day indicating that the rise was due to advances in special situati s(in 11!- e, defense stocks) ratherthan,a broadeninguLancL til e — day, advances exceeded declines a d co in tio is sort could result in an upward trend in the weekly breadth ke iiex. The daily index is very close to breaking a downtrend lin r t Clfi'gh. On the favorable side also, down- cases the downtr n i e d om the January highs of 688.21 and 161.00. The potenti base med on the industrials and rails since the March lows indicate an upside ob' ve of 660-680 on the industrial average and149-51 on the rails. These objec ves could be increased by a further broadening of the potential bases. Thus the technical outlook the same as prior to the events of the past ten days, but technical indications point to an eventual improvement in the breadth-of-the-market index and an upside penetration of the broad trading range in which the averages have held since February. I have mentioned the rails in several recent letters, and I continue to be impressed by the long term potentials of this group. I believe that there will be contmued discussions of merger possibilities thaf could eventually result in considerable savings for the carriers involved. That, together with increased piggy-back operations and the elimination of the unprofitable passenger operations and terminal costs, could produce some sta,rtling earnings improvements. There is also some hope that featherbedding pressures will gradually be lessened. Uncertainty regarding strike developmen1smay hold the group back temporarily, but I would suggest accumulating rail issues during periods of minor weakness. Dow-Jones Industrials 625.24 Dow-Jones Rails 143.91 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This market letter is not, nnd under no circumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to sell or a sohcltatlon to buy any referred to herem The mformation contained herein IS not gunranteed 8.Il to accuracy or completeness and the furnlsnmg thereof IS not, nnd under no cIrcumstances IS to be construed as, a representa- tion by Walston & Co Inc All expreSSIOns of opinIon are subJect to change wIthout nobce Walston & Co. Inc. and Offlcers. Directors, Stockholders nnd therrof, scll and may have nn lOtcrest m the- secUrlUeJ mentIOned herem ThiS marKet letter IS intended and presented merely as general, mformal commentary on da) to day market news ang not as a complete analYSIS. Additional InformatIOn With respect to any seCUrltlCB referred to herem Will be upon request T .

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 27, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 27, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - May 27, 1960
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FILE Walston &- Co. Inc – – – – – Members New YOTk Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER May 27, 1960 The stock market still seems unable to develop any breadth or vitality. As was pointed out a week ago, despjj.e…h.e heavy volume of trading and a general advance in the averages, more stockWadvanced.tha1ldeclinedJ The same tendencies held true this week with declining stocks outnumbering advancing ones on four of the five days. This is one of the things the market technician refers to when he says breadth -of-the-market is poor. Advancing tendencies, in other words, rather than being spread throughout the list, are restricted to a few stocks. This phenomenon is nothing new. Indeed, it has been the characteristic feature of the stock market ever since April 1959. Since that time, on an average basis, more stocks have declined from week to week than have advanced. This weakness in breadth was, to a large extent, masked by a rise in the averages in the last quarter of 1959, and it was this poor breadth, as much as anything else, that made this letter mildly cautious in the second half of 1959, and quite pessimistic in December. When one looks at the technical patterns of all the stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange, the reason for the large number of declining stocks is not at all difficult to find. As many an investor is aware, to his sorrow, a good number of stocks have been in private bear markets of their own. Some of these declines extend back only a few months; others go back as long as two years. Included in this category of de- clining stocks are practlcally all major heavy accounting for a substantial portion of the total market value of all i te These groups include, airlines, aircrafts, aluminums, autos, h mlC ,coppers, machine ries, oils, papers, railroads, rubbers, steels, an t tiles, n ically the entire roll call of American industrial enterprises. EEnce b oduced to show that this trend began even before June of Dow-Jones Industrial Average w 0 ,at its recent price the 0 aoeve its April 1956 high, yet a 10,000 investment in Oil of New Jersey, Aluminum Company of P per, would be worth less than 7500.00 today. The price II!..emlities has been equally desultory. It has, of y been impossible to make money in the stock market. If ourtheuretical in or with his 10,000 had chosen to divide his investment among such stodgy, defen lve issues as American Telephone, General Foods, Reynolds Tobacc , and Woolworth, his 10,000 would be worth 18,000 today, and had he chosen Poloroid, Texas Instrument, Brunswick, and Zenith (stocks which, it must be admitted, are easier to pick by hindsight than foresight), his 10,000 would have grown to the rather astounding sum of 124, 335. The market over the past four years then, has become a market of specialties. It seems likely to remain so until such time as the technical position of some of the major industrial groups mentioned above improves. These improvements may still take a good deal of time. A majority of stocks in the groups mentioned above have reached, or are within 5 of, their downside objectives, from a technical point-of-view. Most of them lack any sort of base for a sustained advance. A long period of backing and filling will undoubtedly be required before any sustained advance in these stocks can be predicted. Until such time, as these bases form, it appears extremely likely that the market will continu to be an extremely specialized one where selection of individual stocks will be far more important than any attempt to guess the course of the averages. Dow-Jone s Industrials 624.78 DOw-Jones Rails 141. 12 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thls market letter IS not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, an offer to sell or a soliCitation u bu)- any '1(cUTltU!9 referred to herem The Information contamed herem 18 not gullrantceJ ru; to aecuracy or completeness and the furnlShlng' thereof IS not, and \mder no C1Tcumstanl!CS 15 to be construed as, a repre!'!enta. tlnn by 'Walston & Co. Inc All expressions of opinion arc subJect to change Without notIce Walston & Co. Inc, and Offlccrs. Directors, Stockholders and Employees thereof, purchase, sell and may have an mtcrcst In the secUrities mentioned herein This market letter IS mtended nnd presented merely as a general, Informal commentary on day to day market news and not as a completP- Addltlonnl mformatIon With respect to any SecUrIties referred to herem '\\tIl be furmshed upon request. . . . . \\ N.

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