Viewing Year: 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 16, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 16, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - October 16, 1959
View Text Version (OCR)

, ! J W—a-lIsntocn.-&– Co. Members New York Stock EXchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFJCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 16, 1959 After backing and filling the first three days of the week, the Dow-Jones Industrial average rallied sharply and, at its intra-day high of 646.53 on Friday, penetrated the rally high of 643.60. Ability to better this high indicates a reversal of the downtrend in effect since early August. Resumption of the uptrend will not mean automatic profits for many investors, however. Unfortunately, many buyers of equities, in the belief that the stock market moves as a unit, have been too inclined slavishly to hold stocks where technical and fund mental work has indicated that prospects were below average. They have, therefore, had 'small profits, or, -indeed, even losses -when the-market was moving serious losses on minor market declines. The following compilation attempts to show the shifting leadership which has been the rule during the past two years. Column 1 lists of Standard & Poor's major indus- trial averages in the order of their performance from October 1957 low to 1958 high. The figures are 1958 highs expressed as percentages of the October 1957 low. The secon column lists the same 2\groups, the figures being July 29, 1959 highs as percentages of 1958 highs, and the thiM column traces performance on the same basis from the July 29th high to date. Obviously, some shifting of investor preference was necessary during the period if optimum results were to be obtained, despite the fact that the market was in a general uptrend. Radio-TV Manufacturers, for 18 months the outstanding performer, have now dropped sharply in the group rankings. Groups that were below average hold- ings in 1958, such as Brewers, Aluminum, Chemicals and Soft DrinkS, suddenly became relatively attractive in 1959. Similar acticn should obtain in the next upmove,. and in order to 'obtain maximum results, the investor will need carefully. ff'J 'W (!jis present holdings .rrWTo–1'v1M-irs. llJo -2Radio-TV Mfrs. \..'y 3acco 10.2 -Drugs – Equip; 191 – -180 Brewers Electr – — SofLDrinks. Coal 10.1 99 Retail 99 Distillers 161 1 126 Contamer Paper 98 -Air Transport – Steel cy–. r' inery 124 Paper e als 124 Uhlities 98 98 Food gs 122 Food 97 Agric.Machinery 1 Machinery 119 Mining & Smelt. 97 .. Railroads Soft Drinks 118 Autos 96 Retail 151 Autos 117 Brewers 96 Tires 150. Office Equip. 117 Railroad 95 , Tobacco 150. Tires 116 Steel 95 – Utilities 149 Foods 112 Chemicals 94 Building 148 Steels 112 Cont, -Metals-Glass 94 – Electronics 148 Tobacco 111 Elec. Equip. 94 Textiles 146 5DO-STOCK COMPo III Distillers 94 .- Cont, Metal-Glass 145 Elec. Equip. 110. Office Equip. 94 5DD-STOCK.COMP.142 Retail 10.8 5DD-STOCK.COMP.94 Aluminum 141 Distillers 10.7 Agric. Machinery 93 Paper . Railroads Aluminum 93 Mining & Smelt. 139 Containers-Paper 106 Electronics 93 Aircraft 135 Paper 106 Copper 92 Soft Drinks 134 Building 10.4 Air Transport 91 Copper . 133 Utilities 104 Building 91 , Elec.Equip. 130. Copper 10.0 Radio-TV Mfrs. 90. Autos 127 Coal 98 Textiles 90. Chemicals 127 Textile 98 Tires 89 Machinery . Coal 126 Cont, Metals-Glass 95 Aircraft 124 Oils 95 Drugs 88 88 – Brewers 123 ' \'1… 11 r Jetter 18 not, and under Aircraft 90 Oils 87 & r;c 86 IS to be co'n'Btrued as, an offer to'1!ell or a sohcltatJon to huy any secuntles rcferrro to herein The mformntton contained herein IS nCotog, uIanrca.ntAeUedeaxsptroesasciocunrsacoyf aot-pcinoimonplealteenessusbaJnecdt thtoe fcuhraDnjllsehmWgItthhoeurteonfoItSic l-q .lbrectors. Satso.eakhroelpdreerssenantsti purcJmole, sell and may have an mtel'est in the- s(!oCurities menbonerl herem JZInI a .mformal rS1mmcntnry on q,ay news anIJ not as a complete anallof\ls AdditIonal mW!p!f9 bf.l. L I Co Jl! m t I merely ns Il general, Il!J!\ referred to herem Will be \VN JOI .

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 23, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 23, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - October 23, 1959
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co…..——-Inc…..– Members Y01'k Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 23, 1959 Last Friday's strength, based on hopes of a steel strike settlement, proved pre- mature and the Industrial average drifted back into the trading area in which it has held since early September. This week's low of 624.55 compares with the September low of 613.30. From a technical viewpoint, a break below that level on volume would be quite discouraging and would destroy the potential base area that has been building up since early September. It would mean that a new base must be formed at a lower level before the advance is resumed. However, several breadth-of-the-market indicators point to the probability that the September lows will hold. Volume has failed to pick up during periodsof price weakness.'The- heaviest downside'volu,me-was during-the first-phase 'of — . the decline in August when volume on one declining day was above the 4-million-share mark. Also, the drop in the total volume of trading has been brought about almost en- tirely by a drop in buying volume. Downside volume on a ten-day moving total basis is very close to the lowest point reached in 1959. Also, the figures on new highs and new lows are encouraging. The number of new lows was the highest since October, 1957 during September, but has dropped to a point where it is not much above the number of new highs. Probably the most encouraging potential is the sharp pick-up expected in the business pattern when the steel strike is definitely settled. Leonard H. Lempert of Statistical Indicator Associates of Great Barrington, Mass., has some interesting comments on this subject. This company's Statistical Indicator Reports have been ac- curate in forecasting business cycles. The findings are based on the action of twenty- one business indices. Some of these indicators are leaders in the sense that they usually lead the business pattern and change direction does. Another portion of these twenty-one indices are coWiiden i ge ral business pattern and move with it. Another portion are ge ection after the general business has changed its trend. Mr. October 21 st report th owing to say in his '0 A comparison of recent ' t — at the time othe -f956 steeC strike is helpful in our indicators had been under wa a neral, downturns in the leading followed by weaknesses in several of the COincidenbit'nd'C the cyclical ups or he' 1956 strike began. Moreover, by July 1956, d ay for twenty-two months. Weakness in the lead- ing indicators at t s . is virtually simultaneous with the strike and with similar weakness in he cident indicators There is no indication at all of the sequence of weakne 'rst in the leaders and then in the coincident that would char- acterize the beginning of a cyclical downturn. On the contrary, their concurrent weakness is typical of a temporary event, outside the stream of cyclical developments, which is strong enough to pervade the entire economy. Even with signs of a recession already apparent by July 1956, the rebound from the steel strike postponed its beginning by nearly a year. This time, the strike was preceded by an upswing that had only lasted fourteen months and there were no signs prior to the strike that its end was in the offing. Furthermore, the greater length of the strike this time has depleted Inventories considerably more than in 1956. Consequently, many more months of hlgh level activity are expected between the end of the steel strike and the beginning of a recession. The recent general market weakness has brought some issues down to more attractive buying levels. The aluminum stocks have been unsettled by a price cut in a type of aluminum sheet and have declined to support levels. Kaiser Aluminum (51 3/4) and U. S. Foil B (62) are well below their highs and close to support levels, Aluminium, Ltd, (33 1/4) also is attractive. Am erican Viscose (42 1/8), showed nine-months earnings of 4.48 on a consolidated basis and appears undervalued. Electric Storage Battery (50 3/4) is down from its 55 1/2 high and is recommended. Fansteel (64 1/ 2) contmues to show constructive action. Cluett Peabody (56 5/8), Great Northern Paper (50), West Virginia Pulp & Paper (47 3/4), and Singer Manufacturing (49 5/8) are othe'r favored lssues. JnternatlOnal Packers (22 1/4). reached a high of 23 3/8 during the week. It was 16 1/2 a month ago. It still has a higher potential and should be bought on dips. I also like Kaiser Industries (15 5/8) EDDaIIND jM TAREI.! ll'ft\ Or7umstancas lS to be construed as, (In offer to 'Sell or or complctenl.!'ls and the furntshlllj.( thereof II IS snooltk'\raJf!l&1t uIn!'.a,Qer'qniolc)Nlrc-umlltnlL(!CS s1;) herem bectnstrucl The mformabon as, n represent.!- of oPInion Ilre subJect to change WIthout nobee. WnlstQn & Co. Inc, and OffIcers, Directors, Stockholders and lmployccs thereof, purchnae, sell and may have an Interest Tn the sccUrttJes mentIoned herE'ln ThIS market letter IS lntendoo and presented merely as a general, 11Iformal I'ommentnry on day tQ ,Jay market news and not as a complete annlysls. ArldltJonal mformatlOn ….. ith rCpect to any securities referred to herem WIll be furnlshl!l upon requ(qt \\ X 301

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 30, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 30, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - October 30, 1959
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. – – – – – I n c – – – Opy Membe's New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 30, 1959 On Friday, the Dow-Jones Industrial average broke out on the upside of the tradin area in which it has held since early September. The upside penetration appeared more substantial than the false move of two weeks ago when the Industrials reached an intra-da high of 645.53 against a previous high of 643.60. Friday's high was 649.40. Rail action was sluggish, however. Friday's high was 155.53 as compared to a previous high of 161 However, general breadth-of-the-market action would indicate that the intermediate trend is again upward. ,- Current Price 21 With growing investor interest in the Current Dividend Current Yield .50 2. 40/0 economic revival of Western Europe, Inter national Packers, Ltd. (21), appears to have Long Term Debt Minority Interest Common Stock 2,199,805 2,164,243 2,733,180 shs. Sales – 1959-E Sales – 1958 375,000,000 376,999,565 Earnings Per Share-1959-E Earnings Per Share-1958 3.00 2.68 Market Range-1959 23318 – 12 3/4 considerable attraction as a long range spe lation with an upside potential more, than 10 above present prices. The company purcha and processes livestock mostly in Argentin , Brazil, Austraha and New Zealand, and transports the finished product throughout the world, the principal market being Grea Britain. Outlets are also maintained in the United States, Canada, Belgium, Germany, Note All above figures include parent company and foreign subsidiaries consolidated. South M,.w;keti p I eat the Phillipines. i the above areas i 'ain, for example, 1946-1950 average, compared with an 180/0 ffirc m 1958 was 430/0 above th States. This trend should continue, siilce-British meat pounds per capita in the United t .W yo pounds percapifa ii11958 vs.152' Marketing is, t problems, the main difficultie in prior years havi em d 'th production. The new constituhonal government of Argentma ha k p encourage the inflow of foreign capital and to impro the country's econ Sl a' y encouraging the export of beef. Thus, beef herds and consequently, meat vai e for export,are expected to increase sharply over the next few years. It is exp a that International Packers will have little difficulty findmg mar kets for anticipated increased slaughterings. Exchange controls and currency devaluahons have also plagued the company in re cent years. These should now be of relatively little importance as virtually all countries in which IPK operates now permit free exchange of currency to a great degree. In add1tio the company is a buyer on balance in relatively weak currency countries such as Brazil and Argentina, and a seller on balance in the United Kingdom, Western Europe and the United States. Thus, any further weakness which might take place in South American currencies would probably increase IPK's earnings, provided free exchange continues. The price of International Packers seems to reflect previous uncertainties now non-existent, rather than the bright future picture. For the six months of 1959, the compa earned 1. 80 per share on a consolidated basis, after unusually generous provisions for exchange loses without which earnings would have been 2.49 per share. Anticipated per share earnings for the full 1959 year are 3.00,after deductions of reserves, vs. 2.68 in 1958. Thus, at its current price of 21, the stock is selling for only 7 times anticipated 1959 earnings with the outlook favorable for marked earnings increases m 1960 and 1961. From a technical point of view, the stock has an initial objective of 29 followed by a long term 56. This latter objective could very easily be realized on eventual improve- ment of earnings to levels considerably above the current ones, plus re-evaluation to a more realistic pIE ratio. Dividends now at a 25 semi-annual rate could well be liberal- ized at some future date. While some degree of speculative risk undoubtedly attaches to any foreign operation, the upside potential appears substantially to outweigh the risk in- volved and the stock is recommended for purchase. ElDF;TUPJD Vi. 'f'ttDELL be con'ltrued as, an offet tn sell or a soiicltntJamM,'fY IJJNwuln The mCnrmntlOn .fiI)nOtnWln r oerncien IsS n gua ntecd eu or completeness and the furnishing thereof IS not. and lk.4SlJ' opinIon are suhJect to changc ,\\lthout notlcc Walston & Co, Inc, and OffIcer!!, as, n representa Stockholdcrs nnd J;mployccs thereof, purcnnRe, sell and may have nn mtcrest in thc s()!uritles mcntlOnoo hercm. ThIS mnrkct letter is llltenrled II.nrl ptcscnted mcrely as a !l'cncrnl, informal commentary on dny to day market news and not ns Do complete analysll; AdditIOnal mformatlon '\\lth respect to any tecuntU referroo to herem Will be furnished upon request \\ N 301

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 06, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 06, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - November 06, 1959
View Text Version (OCR)

. Opy Walston &- Co. —-Inc —….;.- Members New Y01'k Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 6, 1959 Although plagued by irregularity due to the steel strike, the marke t moved ahead after the Election Day holiday, and the Dow-Jones Industrial average reached a high of 654. 38 on Friday. As has been mentioned in previous letters, an upside penetration of the recent trading range in which the Dow average has held has taken place. Breadth-of-the- market action remains reasonably good, and further strength from these levels would con- firm a reversal of the trend, eliminating the possibility that the entire trading area since early 1959 constitutes a head and shoulder top. Once this possibility has been eliminated, the technical picture should point rather obviously to higher levels ahead. Meanwhile, how ever, be exercised until-the picture is completely clear. – V.- – As always, the best protection against unforeseen market vicissitudes is the care- ful selection of individual stocks. A number of stocks on our recommended list appear to combine sizable upside potential with limited downside risk. INTERNATIONAL PACKERS, LTD., originally recommended at 16, and re-recommended last week at 21, reached a high of 24 3/8 on Friday. The stock still has attraction on a long range basis as a specu- lation on improving economic conditions both in South America and Europe. Action of other stocks on our recommended list has been less encouraging of late. RORE AIRCRAFT (16) is selling near its low for the year. However, the 1.00 dividend affords a yield of over 6, and, despite the poor earnings (1.40 was earn d in the year ended July 31,1959 vs. 2.18 in the prior year) the dividend appears safe. As the annual report points out, the shrinkage of margins was due in large part to start-up expenses on new contracts. It is believed these expenses have just about reached a peak. While earnings in the October quarter will probably improved over the period when ll per share was earned, a fairly steady u e d ul(l; continue for the rest of the fiscal year and earnings should at b t th 'scal 1959 perfor – ance. Sales should remain at their current levels, ho 1958,and a return to normal margins could well provide a worthwhile b.aings ease later on. Another one of oucrecommendations is CHICAGO,MILWAUKEE,ST. PAUL P F 6 rnings in the normallyprosperOl.ls' months of August and Septe ers Ii the steel strike and a wheat crop smaller than last year. Thus, r e ended September, only 26 was earned per share vs. 1.01 'n t 958 period. Earnings for the year will probably not equal the 2. Meanwhile, the out 9 a In, the 1.50 dividend earnings in 1960 for this does not appear in jeopardy. highly leveraged road appears good. By contrast, AT NORTHERN PAPER (49) appears well on the road to recover Net rose sharply in the third quarter to 41 vs. 16 in the 1958 period. Earnings for the forty weeks ended October 5th were 1.04 a common share vs. 8 a year earlier. The co pany has projected continued improvement in sales for the balance of 1959,and a gradual utilization of presently idle capacity. As noted in our letter of September 4,1959, the earnings potential as capacity is approached is considerable. NATIONAL DISTILLERS (32), another recommendation, has also shown good earn- ings improvement. Sales for the nine months expanded 110/0, and the earnings increase wa at double this rate with 1.63 per share being earned vs. last year's 1.32.For the full year, earnings should be,.close to 2.25 a share, with some 45 coming from the compan chemical activities. Recognition of the increased importance of these activities should ultimately lead to a higher P IE ratio for the stocK, and growth in chemical sales and earn ings,as well as moderate expansion in the liquor bUSiness should continue into 1960. Recent earnings of FREUHAUF TRAILER (29) improved even more dramatically as the stock moved into new high territory this week. 1. 43 was earned per common sha for the nine months ended September 30th, versus a 1958 deficit as the company began to show the effect of a drastic internal reorganization. With this reorganization complete, profits should continue to grow next year from the sharply increased demand for trailer for regular trucking, piggy-back, and other functions. AWTamb Dow-Jones Ind. 650.92 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO.INC. IS to be as, an offer to sell or 11 sohcltatlOn to buy nny secUritieS referred to herem The mformatlOn ('ontnmed herem IS not IlS to accurncy or completeness nnd the furnlshmg thereof 18 not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, a representu- tion by Walston & Co, Inc All of oplllion nrc subJcct to chanJ!;Q Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and OfflC(!rs, Directors, Stockholders and Employeeo; thereof, purchase, sell and may have an mterest m the securitIes mentIOned herem ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a general, mformni commentary on dny to day market news and not as a complete analYSI'l Additional mformatlon With rE!5pect to any securities referred to herem will be furnished upon r e q u e s t . ' WN 30l

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 13, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 13, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - November 13, 1959
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. Inc fiLE COP1 Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lEnER November 13,1959 General weakness in the averages dominated the week's market action. After brea ing out of the trading range in which it has held for some time, the Dow-Jones Industrial average returned to the top of the range, reaching a low of 640 .01 on Friday. This is norm 1 technical action and current levels should constitute a fairly strong support area. In orde to confirm the upside penetration, some recovery should take place from these levels. As has previously been noted, the keynote of the market will still be selectivity. In this connection, we are reprinting below our entire recommended list. Again it is divided into two parts – the regular list, and a package recommendation of low-priced issues. on this listas co.uldbe expected.in ,anirreg)JlarmareJ, . poorly and are selling below recommended prices. Of these, six are in the oil group whic has, of course, been under considerable pressure due to heavy tax-loss selling. Retention of these stocks is recommended for the time being, although they could be candidates for sale when tax-loss pressure abates after the 1st of the year. Two other issues selling be- low their recommended levels are in the aircraft group,.Northrop Corp. and Rohr Aircraf This group has begun to act better and it is believed that the current rally could carry bo h stocks close to or above their recommended levels. Rohr was reviewed in our letter of last week. Northrop runs into heavy supply at around 35 and might be disposed of on stre into that area. Other stocks selling below their originally recommended price such as American Viscose, Great Northern Paper, Newport News Shipbuilding, Northwest Airline and Schenley, are close to support and would appear to be attractive purchases on any further weakness. Other stocks in the list, despite substantial advances, attractive. Coca-Col advanced to a high of 169 early last week, but new it appear attractive even at current levels. The meat packing group t g, Wilson & Co. des pite the fact that it has almost tripled since the or' I' ation, still seems in- teresting. Other stocks which seem especiall attr 'e at time areCluett Peabody, Electric Storage Battery,National Distille 'er f and International Packers American Viscose R4 National Distillers 27 32 Butler Bros. Chic. Mil. St. Pa Cluett Peabody Coca-Cola Consolidation Coal Dayton Rubber Elec.Storage Battery Fansteel Metallur. Getty Oil Great North. Paper Heinz, H.J. 4 36 32 54 60 28 57 56 7 56 165 41 32 56 67 18 50 85 Newport News Ship. Northrop Aircraft Northwest Airlines Pan ArneI'. World Air Pennsalt Chemical Rohr Aircraft Royal Dutch Schenley Industries Shell Transport Singer Mfg. Union Oil of Calif. 47 33 38 12 23 24 48 43 22 48 50 38 31 34 22 29 19 40 35 20 49 44 Intern'l Min. & Chern. Kaiser Aluminum Magnavox Monsanto 29 41 40 38 Rec, Price Avco 9 Chemway Curtis Publishing Decca Records 11 15 18 Divco- Wayne Fedders Corp. Freuhauf Trailer Home Oil A and B 17 19 17 20 30 U.S.Foil B 49 West Virginia Pulp 69 Westinghouse Elec. 50 Wilson & Co. L O . W – P R I C–E D – L- IST 33 49 88 15 Current Price 14 12 12 18 22 18 28 12 Hotel Corp. Intern'l Packers Kaiser Industries National Can Oliver Corp. Pacific Petroleum Publicker Ind. Rayonier United Industrial Rec. Price 7 15 15 14 19 18 11 19 13 39 56 98 43 CPurrirceen 7 23 15 9 23 12 9 24 16 15 mnr\et etter IS not. and under no circumstances is to be construed as, sWqu\lAJa'Elau seeunbe! referred to herem. The mformatlOn fMf of or eompleteness opinion are nnd thtoe fchua'WriYr' WiN,neot;, pircumsatnandces is to beDcIorencsttorurse,d Satso,cakhroelpdreerssenatnad p 11 &,e an interest in the securities mentIOned hereIn. This market letter Is intended and presented ml!rcly as a general, day marW news not as a complete analYBIB AdditIonal Information with respect to any securities referrC!d. to herein will be furmshed upon request WN 301

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 20, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 20, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - November 20, 1959
View Text Version (OCR)

fILE COpy Walston &- Co. – – – – – I n c . – – Membe,'s New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 20,1959 Technical market action is encouraging despite a divergence in the action of th Industrials and Rails. The Dow-Jones Industrials declined quite Sharply early in the wee to reach an intra-day low of 630.99 on Tuesday, and recovered rapidly later in the week The Industrial average now shows a series of higher lows with a September low of 613.30, an October low of 624.55, and Tuesday's low of 630.99. Combined with successive mont higher highs of 643.60 in September, 646.53 in October, and 658.58 earlier this month, an uptrend channel has been formed which would be further confirmed by a hlgh above 658.58. Friday's high was 649. 97. The potential base since September has now been . broadenel sufficiently toindicate a possible 705-710 witllsome temporary reSistance at 655-665. The Rail average has shown much less favorable action. The September low of 149.12 was broken on the downside at this week's low of 145.45. However, the Rail aver age is near its downside objective. In the letter of August 12th, I noted that a downside penetration of the 174-157 range in the Rail average would, from a technical viewroint in- dicate a further decline to about 143. Further tax loss selling may bring the Rail averag down to this level'over the next month. The Rails may need time to form a new base, but appear to be approaching a buying level. My thoughts on the longer term outlook for the market will be sent you next week. It will be in the form of a reprint from the!'Commer- cial & Financial Chronicle of an address to the Arizona Bankers Convention m Phoenix on November 13th. It will be sent in place of the usual weekly letter. Regarding tax-loss selling, the irregular action of the market recently wlll probably result in more tax-loss selling than in 1958. If the market has been higher for most of the year, the December low is usually reached 1onth. In 1958, with the market higher for most of the year, the low d )Wece ber 3rd. In 1957, with the market lower for the last half of the be w was not reached until December 23rd. Probably this year's . e about half-way between the above a — ould be to st;cks s-;l to establish tax losses. good relative strength action and have a considerably higher oten' 1. letter, these suggestions are for longer pull holding of six 0 O. yare not trading recommendations. They are of varied 'uality r i s are in addition to my recommended list which was published in the Ie r f N ber 13th. iday's Price Friday's price Allis Chalmers 34 3/8 Kimberly Clark 71 Aluminium, Ltd. 29 3/4 Lukens Steel 84 Amer. Broad. Para. 32 7/8 Martin Co 44 3/8 Ame r. Distilling 46 1/2 McCall Corp. 28 5/8 Amer. Optical 47 7/8 Montgomery Ward 50 3/4 Armour Co. 35 7/8 Motorola, Inc. 152 1/4 Bendix Aviation 74 Penn Dixie Cement 33 Bethlehem Steel 54 1/8 Pepsi Cola 35 1/8 Conso!. Electronics 47 Pittston Corp. 74 1/8 Copperweld Steel 49 Reynolds Tobacco 62 3/4 Cudahy Pacj;ing. Diamond-National 13 7/8 38 5/8 .- Servel, Inc. Stevens, J. 13 7/8 31 3/8 Ferro Corp. 41 1/2 Swift & Co. 42 5/8 Gen'l Amer. Trans. 52 7/8 United Eng. & Fdry 19 1/8 Great West. Sugar 30 U S. Freight 59 7/8 Hammermill Paper 31 1/8 Woolworth 59 1/4 I am leaving next week for a business trip to Walston's offices in Honolulu and will contmue around the world to TOkyo, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Paris and London. I hope to have something of interest to report on my return on December 21st. In the meantime, there will be several write-ups of individual issues in the letter. EDMUND W. TABELL tllJifllqder na IS to be eonstrued ns, an offer to sell or a sohcitalVo n cu I e E!i-em The Information c6-tbCll'i't-d 'hbMMlI! hy & Cn, Inc All as to ucct!racy e)'pregSlOnq nf or completeness and the lpinlOn are subject to furnl!;hmg thereof III not, chang-e 'Ithout notice nnd under & no circumstances IS to Co, Inc, and Officers, construcd as, a l'eprC'SentnStockholders and hmplo()(''1 Ow-rrot, ptlrChllRC, BC!! and mny have Itn mterest In the SecUlltzes meutJflnro herem. 'rhls mnrlct Jetter IS mtcnde.-l and pre'lentcd merely as n general mformal commentary on duy to day market news nng not as a complete analYSIS Addlt1maJ mfOrmatiOn With respe'!t to any securities referred to herem 'Ill furnished upon request \\ i 301 ,

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 27, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 27, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - November 27, 1959 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - November 27, 1959 page 2
Tabell's Market Letter - November 27, 1959 page 3
Tabell's Market Letter - November 27, 1959 page 4
View Text Version (OCR)

Reprinted From 17z(l COMMERCIAL and FINANCIAL CHRONICLE Thursday, November 19, 1959 What Time Is It on the Stock Market Clock By Edmund W. Tobell, Dlrector of Institutional Research, & Co,Inc, New York Clty Expert market analyst sees D..J Industrial Average topping out in 1960 to 1961 at .round 180 to 800, compared fo ra,f Augu,f', .Igh of 883, before declining to 150525 range in next five years. In revealing Investor confidence is currantly extremely high and makes tor a more vulnerable market. Mr. rabell doubts. however. that we are in a major downtrend. The arialyst explains the factors Influencing price diversity of one stock to another; examines market wave theories; observes neil emerging pattern of a narrower range for stocks and a wider Dne fDr bonds, and envisages an edvancjng market waVe over the next ten years. Investors are advised to be selective and not solve t'lair investment problems by remaining static and owning the FaVOrite Fifty,.. I Many investors arc confused by the seemingly irrational behavior of the stock market They find it dlffh'llt to understand why one stock will sell at400r50 Urnes earnings and another at 10 tim e s They become confused when the price of one stock advances while its earnings are declining and another aeclines while 1t s earnings atrreendin. Paanrtupo-f EdmUDd w. T.belJ fact that the stock market should act as a barometer rather than a thermometer, attempting to discount trends in advance rather than reflect the Immediate situation. To a larger extent, however, the seemingly irrational behavior of stock pI Ices is explained by the fact that the prIce of a stock depends, not On one slOgle yardstick but on many elements. These many elements can probably be narrowed down to four main influences on stock prices Three of these factors are tangIble (1) earnings, (2) dIvidends, and (3) money rates or bond YIelds. But there is a fourth factor that is not tangible, that cannot be expressed in terms of numbers and that is this seeming irrationality is explamed by the not easy factor is tion vme setaosru rceo.n fTi dheISn cfeo. uIrnt h- Highs and Lows of Investors Confidence – Present Market Vulnerability to Change I 1850 IT m 010.1'57 On.I1S1 4 IU, fourth wave. The fifth wave average and some d i v i d en d started from the October 1957 low. increases and extras are to be Doubts We Are in Major Downtrend expected. Tills is hardly the back ground for a market decline. Furthermore, the fifth and final phase Was' the long-term advance from 1949 completed at the August of a long-term advance is usually the most dynamic with heavy vol- 1959 high of 683 and are we now ume and overspeculation. The in a maJor downtrend It is pos- present advance does not yet fit sible, but I doubt it. There are into this category. several techmcal reasons for this The advance that started in October 1957 while a part of the broad 1949 advance to date, must be considered a bull market of its own. A study of 14 bull markets since 1884 indicates that if the present bull market ended in August 1959, it is well below average in terms of both time and percentage advance. The average time duration of the 14 bull markets has been 30 months. The present bull market lasted only 21 months if August was the top. The average percentage advance of previous bull markets was 105. The present advance to August is only 63. In addition, volume indications on the decline If we use EllIot's wave principal on the advance from the October 1957 lows, we have a number of alternative interpretations. On shorter term moves, the variOUS waves are difficult to recognize while they are taking place. One possibility is shown in FIGURE III. This would indicate that we are nOw in the fifth or final wave. An equally valid possibility, in my opinion, is the one shown in FIGURE IV. This would indicate we are only in the third wave, and the CUlmination of the advance from October 1957 will be in 1961 or possibly as late as 1962. since August have not been of the type usually associated with im- My conclusion August, 1959 high Is of that 683 Is the not portant phases. The heaviest volume of trading occurred in the first week of the decline from 683 to 640. While the decline continued to a low of 613 in September, volume failed to increase. In an important downtrend, volume increases as each new low is attained. From the viewpoint of the business cycle, the odds favor a continued upturn in business well into the top of the bull market. I believe it probable that the stock market will have a typical fifth wave climax with sharply higher volume and speculation in secondary issues. The high to be reached In 1960 or 1961 will be scoemnteawgehweriese,arothuinsd is750a-n80a0d. vPanecreonly about 20 from present levels-as compared with a rise of 300 from the 1949 lows. 1960 and maybe beyond. The Might Reach 550-525 at Most average time duration of a business cycle is 27 months to three years. The present upward business cycle started in April 1958 and is only 19 months old, The steel strike shortages will probably extend the cycle through 1960 and mto 1961. Earnings in What will follow after the market reaches a high in 1960 Or 1961 I believe the market will probably have a decline somewhat greater than we have witnessed in quite some time. This is not as omInous as it sounds. The market has not had a really the first half of 1960 could well surpass the rate of 11 earned in the second quarter of 1959. Divi- severe decline in recent years. The 1957 decline was 20. The 1946 decline was 25 . If the dend payouts have been below averages reach 750-800 on the 5 Foresees Consolidating Market – Conclusion

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 04, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 04, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - December 04, 1959
View Text Version (OCR)

\ Walston &Co. In.c, M embel's New YOl'k Stock Exchange FILE NEW YORK SAN FRANCESCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER December 4,1959 Action of the market averages over the past two weeks must be considered constru t e. On November 20th, this letter noted an uptrend channel that has prevailed in the Dow-JonE s Industrials in the past three months. This uptrend channel continued with the ability of th average to reach a new intra-day high of 668.70 on December 1st. The average has now pushed into the heavy overhead supply which exists in the 655-665 area, and the upside indication continues to be 705-710. Some strength was also noted in the Rail average during the past week. As previou I noted, the Rails had a downside objective of 143, and an intra-day low of 145.19 was on November 25th.' Since ,then, theo averages moved ahead, reaching a high 88 on Friday. Although the uptrend mayor may not continue, selected rail purchases appear to carry a minimum of downside risk at the present time. GREAT WESTERN SUGAR Price Current Dividend Current Yield 29 1. 70 5. 9 7 Cum. Pfd. Stock Common Stock Sales – 1959-60 (El Sales – 1958-59 150,000 shs. 1,800,000 shs. 110,000,000 107,380,000 Earn. Per Sh.1959-60 (E) 3.25 Earn. Per Sh.1958-59 3.13 Mkt.Range 1959-1955 317/8 – 191/4 seem to be such a stock. Great Western i -, ing for 'more than 3'quarter-of the In the advanced stages of a bull marke astronomical price / earnings ratios, and miniscule yields become the order of the day. Thus an equity with a p / e ratio of unde 10 and a yield close to 6 is somewhat of a rarity. When this stock, in addition, is of sound investment quality, has an assurec steady growth potential and, in addition, possesses as attraction near-term incre, s in eco doubly worthy of at Western Sugar would eadHig'l. beet sugar producer, accoun — been paid smce 1933, and h e of the past three years. The current 1. 70 rate a 5 n 6 based on recent prices. Balance sheet position is stro VI ,and only a small preferred issue ranking ahead of the common. In order to fu y u stand Great Western it is necessary to understand that sugar is a closely-regula ommodity with tariffs set up to protect the U. S. market, imports closely regulated and marketing quotas divided among various producers. The Sugar Act of 1948,as amended, divides up the U.S. sugar market between domestic beet producers, domestic cane producers, Hawaiian producers, and sugar imported from Puerto Rico, the Philippines, and Cuba. The provisions of the Act are extremely complicated but under the quota system as it is currently set up, U. S. producers should enjoy a growing share of a growing U. S. market. This should afford Great Western and the other domestic beet producers opportunity to increase sales at a steady rate over a period of time. Since capacity is ample, capital expenditures can be devoted to modernization of existing plant, thus im- proving profit margins. It lS, therefore, quite possible that net will increase at a great- er rate than sales in the years-ahead. In addition to its sound investment base, Great Western Sugar affords a measure of speculative attraction based on the current uncertainty in Cuba. Under the Sugar Act referred to above, over one-third of sugar consumed in the U. S. is produced in Cuba. Were Cuba's ability to deliver sugar to be impaired, either by nationalization of sugar lands, by refusal of growers to plant crops, or a change in U. S. policy, the resultant sugar deficiency would have to be made up by other sources. A major share of this deficiency would undoubtedly have to be filled by the U. S. beet sugar industry. Under such clrcumstances, the rise in Great Western Sugar's earnings could be 'quite SUbstantial. From a technical point of Vlew, the stock has an upside potential considerably abov present prices. The projection calls for an intermediate term 40 followed by a longer term objective of 55. Strong support is provided at 29-25. The stock is being added to StU I eesfflDiefle1eEllie1l rsp fHiPeRese is iRVQl!!r5J;Q.9Rt aQQQllptS seekips good income and is to be construed as, an offer to sell or a soliCitation to buy tb1\-b\rDed–ltt!relrHs tIOn by Walston & Co, Inc. All expressions of or completeness Ilnd opInion Ilre sllbJect the to fcuhramngsehm,giththoeurEtJriffld1r\f1c\i.o!u;OWJa(!tls't,rMftie&'\nitieo., purchnse, sell and mlly hMe lin mterest m the securItIes mentlOned on day to day mnrkct neWEl and not liS II complete analYSIS flirniRhcd upon r e q u e s t ' , referred to herem. The mformatlOn Is.to be construed as, a representalti'ters, Directors, Stockholders and presented merely as n general, referred to herein will be WN 301

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 11, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 11, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - December 11, 1959
View Text Version (OCR)

\ fiLE COpy Walston &Co. – – – – – Inc – – – Mem bers New Y O1'k Stock Exciw.nge NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER December 11, 1959 Action of both the Industrials and Rails continues constructive, despite profit- taking which crept into the market on Friday. As previously noted, the upside objective on the Dow-Jones Industrials is 705 -710 and the Rails appear to be slowly basing out. FERRO CORPORATION, INC. Current Price Current Dividend ,– 44 1. 60 3. – In almost any area of the United States, newly constructed office and industriaCouildirigs dot-the urban ana rural Long Term Debt Common Stock 5,962,641 748,627 shs. scenes. To any observer of this con- struction, the growing use of brightly colored porcelain enamel -pm !s, both Sales – 1959-E 63,000,000 as curtain walls and interior decoration Sales – 1958 56,380,000 must be apparent. Porcelain also con- Earn. per share 1959-E 4.30 – 4.50 Earn. per share 1958 2.76 tinues to be used in the home, not only as part of the house itself, but also as a coating for appliances. All porcelain, Market Range 1959-1951 45 5/8 – 16 wherever used, has one thing in common- the raw material used in coating the metal base. This material is called frit, and the country's largest producer of enamel frit is Ferro Corporation, Inc. Ferro produces not only porcelain frit itself, but also offers an engineering ser- vice selling the furnaces and various machines used in It is also the seller of non-organic pigments used to color 0 ti IWhes products are sold both in this country and abroad, with about coming from wholly-owned foreign subsidiaries. 1\ V;) t e c any's total sales – and relateci-products-are- – howeve-r. It is an important producer of fibre, a 0 ct .ch is now reaping record sales production, and, in addition, business and other engineering lines. With the gro i F ro s products, sales and earnings have expanded sharply in 1959. ae y reported 3.52 earned per common share for the first nine months 9 . . 5 for the same period in 1958. For the full year 1959 an considerably better than 3 million after taxes, roughly in the range of 4.30 t .50 per common share. This is expected to be achieved on sales of some 63 million indicating a pre-tax profit of close to, or better than 100/0 of sales, Significantly, this will be the best such margin in Ferro's recent history. For 1960 and beyond, the outlook is even more impressive. Sales should expand sharply as industrial construction continues to grow. Appliance companies, one of Ferro' major categories of customers, should have a banner year in 1960. Ferro's capital goods divisions, which contributed little or nothing to profits in 1959, should be on a profitable basis as capital spending increases. Thus, per share earnings for 1960 could well reach the 5.50 level. Over the long term, the growth in the use of porcelain enamel should continue. Ferro's entrenched position in Europe places it in a favorable position .in repectto sales in the European common market.Fibre gluss continues in short supply, and continued expansion of this product is foreseen. In the research field, Ferro has been working for a number of years on lowering temperatures required to bake enamel. This research is tremendously important since as this temperature is lowered, new material such as narrow gauge steel, and aluminum can be porcelainized thus widening tremendously Ferro's potential market. Despite the favorable near term and long term outlook, current prices mark Ferro at only ten times estimated 1959 earnings and eight times possible 1960 The recently raised 1.60 dividend provides a 3.6 yield and could be further liberalized. From a technical point of view, the stock has a long term upside objective of 73 with strong support at 38-35 just under current levels. It is being added to our recom- mended list for purchase in capital gains accounts. n r BBfvRJUB W.'PyrDELLTA under4.lld M-.lRflMnnces IS to be construed aB, an offer to sell or a Sc9t1)1t11f1.tronc.tfl'lltlOl.llllY to herein The mformnlion It!,funVrU''l1ltlIil.\I;I.t fIf or oompJeteneslI and the thereof I nN he' eonstruM a9 n repr(!Senta opinion are to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Offlcerll, Directors. Sto'ckholders and C'l'S thereof. purchase. sell and may ha,e an Interest m the securities mentlOTIe herem This market letter IS Intended and presented merely as a general. lri'ii. i'I'Reemllry on day to dny n1llrket news nnl not as a comDlete analysts Additional mformatJon wtth n!Spect to any securities referred to herein Will be furmll ectllpon request. . \\'N 301

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 18, 1959

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 18, 1959

Tabell's Market Letter - December 18, 1959
View Text Version (OCR)

——– Walston &CO. Inc. Members New York Stock Exchange fiLE COPY NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELl'S MARKET lETTER December 18,1959 Irregularity dominated the market during most of the past week as the Dow-Jones Industrials approached, but were unable to penetrate, the August high of 683.90. A new high for the current upturn, however, was achieved on Wednesday at an intra-day peak 0 681.00. As has previously been noted, the upside objective for the Industrials is 705-710. This letter has previously noted the fact that, when the market has been higher for most of the year, the December low is usually reached early in the month. This was the cC.se this year as the market rose through most of December and the low for the mon h ,as attained in the very first week. Tax-loss selling, of course, continues to cause som irregularity, and- an fmportant clue for 1960 will be-afforded by watching the December 3rd Dow-Jones low of 658.48. Studies previously published by this letter indicate that this low, if broken at all, is usually broken early in the following year. This study will be republished and brought up to date in an early January issue of this letter. Meanwhile, despite the fact that the averages are close to an all-time high, the stock market was kinder in 1959 to some investors than to others. It was, of course, possible to purchase American Motors at 39 5/8 in January of 1959. It was also possible at the same time to purchase United Aircraft at 60 7/8. In summary, investment succes was determined largely by stock selection. Action for 1960 is expected to be similar. As an aid to such selection we continuously maintain a recommended list of issue Among the issues on this list is AMERICAN VISCOSE (46 5/8), originally recommended at 52 and which has been acting better in recent weeks after declining to a low of 41. The company's earnings have fulfilled all expectations and, for the third quarter, the parent company reported earned per share vs. 48 in the comparable 1958 period. This brought parent company earnings for the nine to this figure must be added the 2.29 equity in earnings of giant Chem- strand Corporation. On a consolidated basis, e should run to 5.!5 – 6.00 stock pre prices. Another lssue on our hst for some SciIrrli ANUFACTURING (56), -has also shown improving action of by the excellent 1959 earn- ings picture. rise in sales over the 1958 level, which would a ne a r the company. More interesting, however, was the as earnings over last year's depressed 2.41 per share. A revita is making sweeping changes within the company and operations a eing expanded. Singer Manufacturing, with extensive overseas acilities, appears to afford an excellent participation in the future of under-de oped nations. Recent weakness in INTERNATIONAL PACKERS, LTD.(19), has stemmed from the announcement on the part of Armour & Co. that it is spinning off some 129,000 shares of International's stock. These shares are part of a total of 885,000 shares held by Armour in a voting trust and whichwere acquired in exchange for all of Armour's overseas' facilities. Pursuant to the provisions of this trust, Armour must divest itself of all of these shares by 1967. Since the stock is being distributed in small lots (each Armour holder receives 1/40th of a share for each share held) a large part of it will probably come on the market. While this may cause some nearterm weakness, International is considered an outstanding buy at this time, based on the sharply improving earnings outlOOk for 1959 and-beyond. – KAISER ALUMINUM (53 1/2), on our recommended list for some time, has also shown improving action and, after reacting to support at 46, reached a high of 54 on Friday. While 1959 earnings will probably be even lower than the 1. 43 of 1958, the company recently announced it expects to reach 900/0 of capacity in 1959. Since the business is highly leveraged, such an increase could result in a worthwhile earn- ings improvement. AWT.amb Dow-Jones 676. 65 EDMl'ND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 154.78 ThIS market letter 15 not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed 116. an offer to 'leU or a solicltatton to buy any secUrities referred to herein The information contamed herem IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the Curnlshlng thereof IS not. and under no circumstances IS to be construed as, a rcpresenta tlOn by Walston & Co., Inc All expressions of OPInion are subject to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, DIrectors, Stockholders and F.mployees thereof, purchase, sell and may have an mterest in the secuntles mentioned herem ThiS market letter IS intended and presented merely as a general, informal commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete analYSIS AddItional mformaiJon with respect to any secunties referred to herein wIll be furnished upon r e q u e s t . ' \\'N 301

Download PDF