Viewing Year: 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 02, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 02, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - January 02, 1947
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Technical Market Action Weakness in the liquor stocks broght disappointed selling into the market in the last hour and the, industrinl average closed 81 cents lower while the rails gained 5 cents. Volume was extremely small for the first four hours with' a turnover of only 430,000 shares. Activity increased in the final hour to 320,000 shares, bringing the total for the day to 750,000 shares. Inability of the market to immediately start a January rally evidently brought in some speculative selling which was augmented by heavy selling in the distilling shares. This last situation is a special one brought on b.Y a lowering of the liquor tax six months from now and fear of curtailed buying until that time. 'fuile it applies to other luxiry items, it should have no effect on the great bulk of issues. As for the inability of the market to immediately embark on a January rally, it is interesting to note that the market in January 1946 declined 2.01 pOints for the first three trading days of the year but between January 5th and January 14th rallied over 10 points. See no change in the intermediae term pattern and continue to advise purchase of recommended issues on weakness. This letter purposely declines' to indulge in the pastime, so popular at this time of the year, of forecasting the action of the market for 1947,/ The reason is simple. Contrary to general opinion, the real technical approach to the attempt to forecast the moves of the market does not consist of necromancy, crystal gQzing or reading the stars. It 'consists of a painstaking study of the supply and demand areas of the verages and of hundreds of individual stock formations. Such a study never indicates the exact pattern to be/followed over a given period of time. As economic developments and other news events occur, the buying and selling of investors and speculators allover the world are reflected in the formation of supply and demand areas, the penetration of which generally indicates the extent rather than the duration of the next price movement. Such a formation usually tees a considerable period of time to develop and once the indicated objectives are reached, another pattern must be formed,before another indi- cation is given. At the moment, indications point to an intermediate term rally as forecasted by this letter for the past three months. Once 'that objective is reached, any prediction would be pure guesswork until another pattern is formed. Therefore, no attempt at an exact time forecast for 1947 is possible today. owever, certain other predictions are possible. As stated before, I believe the market is now in an intermdiate uptrend. The price objective in the averages is wide, with a minimum of IS5'and a maximum of 200The inability to predict a more exact objective is unimportant. Too much stress, it would seem, is laid on the averages by most market cbmmentators. ,After all, one does not buy the averages, but one does buy individual stocks. The price objectives in many individual stocks is quite clear. The objectives of sixty or more were listed in our letter of December 12th. A great many other issues, at the moment, indicate very small rally possibilities until a further base pattern is formed. Therefore- would predict an extremely selective rise and would cOnGentrate purchases on recommended issues. After the price objectives of the individual issues are reached, no exact prediction is possible. Several patterns are possible. The most probable are (1) slow backing and filling and the gradual building up of another base pattern between the high of the move, whether it be 200 or 185, and about ISO to 175 in the industrial average. This pattern would be followed by a penetration of the high and an indication of a new bull market with price objectives considerably above the 946 high of 213. (2) a decline penetrating the 1946 low and continuation of the bear market to a point considerably below the 1946 low. At the moment, 'any attempt to choose between the two alternatives is largely, but not entirely, guesswork. However, a clue can be found in the long term pattern of the averages and of indiVidual issues. This will be fully covered in our next letter. In the meantime, consider the intermediate price trend as higher with nearer term indications pointing to new highs in individual issues if not in the averages. January 2, 1947 EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing Dow-Jones Industrial Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 176.39 51.18 64.43 Th. opinion. elpr.ecl in this letter ere the personal interpretation of cherts by Mr. Edmund W. r.bell end ere not pfMented a. the opinions of Shl.ld, I Company. . –

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 06, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 06, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - January 06, 1947
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Technical Market Action Monday's market was a two-sided affair with stIrength in the motors, steels. and various specialties and weakness in liquors, moving picture issues and the store group. strong issues consiaerably outweighed the reactionary group, however, and the industrial average gained 1.51 while the rails closed 46 cents higher. Volume remained below average at 980,000 shares; LEst week, we discussed the inadvisability of attempting to fore- cast the course of the market for 1947. We came to the conclusion that the market is noVi in a selective intJrmediate uptrend with some indiVidual issues indiccting nev, high levels while other issues show only negn.tive patterns. Once the rdly objectives are rer,ched,it will be necessary to form another pattern before the direction of the next important move is indicated, The two possible patterns were (1) a slight reaction followed, after are-accumulation phase, by a penetrc,tion of the previous high and a new bull market with price objectives conSiderably above .the 1946 high of 213 or (2) a penetration of the 1946 low5Oda continuation of the bear market to a point conSiderably below the 1946 low of 161. While an attempt to choose between thesa two Il.lternatives is largely guesswork at this stage, a clue can be found in the long term pattern of the averages and individual issues. I The base for the bull market rise was formed during thelang accumul tion priod of almost five years betwen November 1937 and April 1942. Both the averageS and individual issues formed pattErns thr.t indicated lang term price objectives. In checking these price obj ectives with 1946 highs, we find the following. (1) A great many issues reached their indicated price objectives, thus indicating an end of the move end the necessity of forming a new pattern before another move was indicated; In the great majority of cases, these issues were in the consumer or soft goods roup such as department stores, liquors, moving pictures, luxury items, etc. (2) A great many issues have not yet reached their indicated objectives and indicato much higher levels than their 946 highs. Prominent in this group are the heavy goods and allied industries such as steels, railroad equipments, machine companies, building stocks, chemicals, etc. (3) The averages have not yet reached their timate long term rally objectives which are considerably beyond the 1946 highS . These three indications lead to the possible conclusion that after present rally objective i reached the guess is that the most probable pattern is a backing and filling period followed by a new bull market. However, tte leaders of this market will not be the sensational movers of the 1942-1946 period, but a new group of the formerly backward issues. The only thing that is actually indicated at the moment is the intermediate upswing in which the market is now in. The rest is a possible pattern that has yet to be confirmed. No time pattern is indicated. However, believe the odds are in favor of such a development. Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails DonTonps 6qtock EDMUND ',1. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY 178.43 51.33 64.99 i w.Th. opinions e.prelled in this letter ore he penonel interpretation of cherts by Mr. ,und rebel! .nd are not ,,anted a. th. opinipn. of Shield, & Compeny.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 09, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 09, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - January 09, 1947
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Technical Market Action The market, on Thursday, again tried to break out of the line formation in which it has held since the coili. strike settlement. This area, between roughly 173 and 179, has been the, , )– ….,-w.' rge of the averages for the last twenty-six trading days. During this peri,particularly during the last few days, volume has been relatively small. Thursday's volume was only 710,000 shares with fractional price changes. Inability of the market to move ahead seems due to buying inertia rather than selling pressure; However, based on the pattern of individual issues, it would seem probable that the next move of importance should be on the upside with a continuation of selective intermediate uptrend. The steel stocks, as a group, present extremely interesting technical patterns. In the majority of instances they have reached their downside objectives as indicated by their February-July distribution zone. This downSide objective is noted in thesecond column below. After reaching their lows in the September-October decline, they have built tip sizeable supposed base patterns that would indicate, if the price in the third column is reached, an intermediate rally of sizeable proportions. The objectives of a number of issues in the group are listed below. Believe the group offers excellent intermediate term profit possibilities, 1946 DownSide High Object;i.ve Allegheny Ludlum 61 1/8 35 – 33 American Rolling Mills 42 3/8 32 – 26 Bethlehem Steel 114 3/4 88 – 81 Granite City Steel 27 1/4 10 Inland Steel 45 5/S 33 Jones &Laughlin 53 7/8 33 – 31 Lukens Steel 3C 3/4 15-13 Midland Steel 62 1/2 34-29 Pittsburgh Steel 22 1/2 8 Republic Steel 40 7/8 24 Sharon Steel 40 3/8 25-16 U. S. Steel 97 3/8 67-64 Wheeling Steel 62 1/2 38-32 Youngstown Sheet & T 3 7/8 60-55 Reached 38 29 5/8 85 5/8 12 1/2 33 1/2 31 5/8 14 32 9 5/8 24 7/8 23 1/4 65 l/S 36 1/8 57 1/2 Upside Rally Last Penetration Objective Sale 48 67 45 1/4 37 45 – 51 35 1/2 99 119 93 3/8 16 21 – 24 135/8 41 50 – 53 40 39 48-57 35 19 23 16 42 54-58 38 13 18 11 30 42 28 1/4 34 45 32 1/4 76 9 72 1/2 44 56-63 40 69 89 67 3/8 January 9, 1947 Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock EDMUND W. TfJlELL SHIELDS & COMPANY 178.43 50.48 64.71 , The opinions expressed in this are the personal interpretation of cherts by Mr. Edmund W. Tebel! end ate not as the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 13, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 13, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - January 13, 1947
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Technical Market Action The market declined sharply on Monday and at the day's low of 170.99, on the industrial average, down 4.16 from Saturday's close, had closed the gap which had been left open since December 9th when Lewis capi tulated and ended the coal strike. 'l'he murket rallied slightly in the final hour and, ut the close, the industrial average Vias down 2.76 on the day at 172.49, while the rails were down 82 cents at 47.77, compared with the day's low of 47.28. The closing of the December 9th gap is subject to varied interpretations. If the gap had been of the breakaway variety which usually denotes an abrupt change in market sentiment, it would have been logical to expect a continued rise in the market rather than the twenty-seven day hesitation in a narrow trading range which took place. Based on that thought it might be considered constructive that the gap has noVi been closed. In any event, I conslder the I.hole gap theory as a rather uncertain market indicator. Of more importance is the fact that the dOI7nside breakout of the twenty-seven day trading range indicates that the area was a minor top. The downside indication on the industrial average i.s 171-169, the top of which was reached today. The Herald-Tribune average doside objective is 119-117 and the New York Times 114-112. Figures are not available on these averages at present writing but believe the upper limits of these areas were approached, if not actually reached. Thus it vlould appear that at or slightly below present levels, the market sould reach a support level. The decline of the last few days end the inability of the market to move ahead prior to that time seems due to a lack of willingness to buy caused by general uncertainty rather than heavy selling pressure. On the next rally, it vlill be important to watch the action of the market leaders rather than specialties. Strength in these issues vould be constructive. In the m antime, believe recommended issues can be bought on any further weakness. Expect support in American Rolling Mills in the 32-33 area, Electric Autolite in the 54-55 areas, General Motors in the 52-55 area and U. S. Steel in the 67-69 area. These issues could be bought for a trading turn. January 15, 1947 EDMUND VI. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing Dow-Jones Industrials DOIV-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 172.49 47.77 62.25 The opinions e.prelled in this I.tt.r are the personal interpretation of charh by t.Ar. Edmund W. Tebell and are not presented as the op1nion,' of Shi.lcb I Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 14, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 14, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - January 14, 1947
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Technical Market Action The current decline in the market may bring about a rather interesting development – namely, a testing of the major trend much sooner than expected. Based on intra-day highs ahd lovls rather than on closing prices, a procedure followed by it large pp.rcentl'lge of Dow theory followers, the mr;rket at the January 7th intra-do.' high of 179025, had retraced over one-third of the 55 point decline from the 1946 high of 213,56 to the 1946 low of 160.49. This is about the minimum intermEdiate tel'm rally to be expected. However, the industrials, at Monday's 10Vi of 170.99, had lost over 45 of the intermediate term rally from thE! 1946 lOViS. Should the m&rkct ro.lly from that point, or from any point above the 1946 lows, and then penetrate the r8cent high of 1'12.25, it could be conidered u bull market signal. This rifle, of course, \'lou1d have to , be confirmeu by a new high in the rail average above the December high of 52.96. On the, other hand, a decline of both averages to a point below the 1946 lows would be considered as a continuation of the major bear market trnd. It may very well turn out that the current decline, while it is disappointing at the moment, may create a much healthier technical pattern than if'the intermediate term rise had taken place immediately. In the first place, while the majority of issues had reached the dovmside objectives outlined by the distribution tops of February to July of last year, there were a great many issues that had not yet rIO'achell these downside objectives. For example, Schenley in our compilation of such downoide objectives on October 14th indicated a decline to 41 w4en it was still selling above 60. That objctive was reached on Saturday, Quite I'. number of othr issues have just reached their downside indications. Secondly, the current decline is enlarging the base patterns of issues 'that have already reached their downside objectives and thus may indicate even greater rally potentialities. From a nearer term point of view, believe the Monday low of 170.99 and the lows of that date for individual issues should hold if a nearby test of the 179.25 high is to take place. A penetration of these lows would indicate a further testing of the October-November lows. January 14, 1947 EDMUND IV.. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 6,S-Stock i72..63 48.00 62.38 The opinions flllpressed in this letter are the personal interpretation of cherts by Mr. Edmund W. label! end are not presented as the opinions of Shiekls & Company. – —

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 16, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 16, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - January 16, 1947
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Technical Market Action After selling down to a new low for the current reaction at 170,.111 for the industrials and 47.0,1 for the rails, the market rallied in the afternoon. The rails were the leaders of the rally and regained all of the day's losses and at 48.14, finished 61 cents above yesterday's close. The industri81s regained the major part of the day's losses but were still 15 cents lower on the day at 171.95. Volume, at 1,0,40,,0,0,0, shares, was equally divided between the rally and the decline. Bearishness and confusion are rampant. Pessimistic predictions of a decline of 25 to 50, pOints are quite prevalent. While anything is possible, I do not believe that the probabilities favor such a pattern. I Vlould like to inject the following little rays of sunshine into the murky atmosphere. (1) Believe the market is still in the process of forming a base area and that any reaction will halt in the broad 170,-160, area. (2) Believe there is a good chance that the current decline will meet support in the 171-169 area of the Dow-Jones industrial average. Comparable figures are 114-112 in the New York Times average and 119-117 in the New York Herald-Tribune average. , (11) The decine, so far, has not destroyed the general market pattern. It has enlarged the base formation on issues that have already reached their dOlmside objectives and brought other issues down to down- side objectives that were indicated but not'reached in the SeptemberNovember decline. (4) The rise that ,will eventually ensue from the current uncertainty will be quite selective as many issues have already formed large base patterns 'while others are still in the process of forming such patterns and a few others indicate somewhat lower levels. (5) From here on, weakness should be viewed as a buying opportunity in recommended issues rather than worrying about the drastic implications of the price decline. January 16, 1947 EDMUND w. TABELl.. SHIELDS & COMPANY Closin& Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 171.95 48.14 62.21 Th. opinions expre5Sed in this letter are the personal interpretdton of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Taboll end are not prllsented 4S the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 20, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 20, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - January 20, 1947
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Technical Market Action After weekend strength, brought about by the easing of margin. requirements, the market opened lower on Monday anu drifted off for the balance of the session. A rally in the rails, leu by NeVI York Central, faileu to carryover into the industrials and the average closed down 1.86 at 704.06. The rail average acted relatively better with a loss of 51 cents at 48.76. Volume was slall at 800,000 shares. The rally from last Thursday's low of 170.15 to Saturday's high of 176.77 totalled 6.64. In the course of the rally, the industrial average had two gap openings on the upside. Saturday's gap between 174.87 and 175.44 was closed on Monday. Friday's smaller gap between 172.59 and 172.58 still remains open but may be closed in the course of the present dip. Monday's low was 175.69. For the intermediate term, the important figures to watch on the upside are the January high of 179.25 on the industrials and the December high of 52.96 on the rail average. Penetration of these points would be extremely constructive. Such action might even be considered-as a signal for a new bull market, although a great many Dow theory followers would not conSIder it so, due to the short time period between the recent highs and lows. On the downside, last week's lows of 170.15 and 47.01 are the important points. Breaking of these lows would indicate a further correction of moderate proportions dovU to the 168-166 level in the industrials and 46-45 on the raUs. /As for the basic pattern of tho market, see no change. Believe the market is in an accumulation range and price weakness should be used to add recommended issues to portfolios. Believe the 170-160 area is the core of the accumulation base and a strong support area. Selectivity will be of prime importance. / Some individual issues have built up extremel! large base patterns that indicate considerably higher prices. vo such issues are 'Crane (57 7/8) and Union Bag & Paper (28 1/2);' Both issues should be bought on soft spots. Union Bag increased its dividend on Monday from 25 cents quarterly to 50 cents quarterly. EDMUND il. TABELL January 20, 1947 SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails 65-Stock Average 174.06 48.76 65.05 The opinions expressed in this letter are the perJOftai interprettion of charts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and re not presented os the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 23, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 23, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - January 23, 1947
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Technical Market Action After a slow but firl!l market in t.he earlier hours, prices rallied quit.e sharply at the close on increased vollune. The intustrials closed up 1.36 at 175.15 while the rails were 66 cents higher at 49.17. Volume totalled 880,000 shares with 370,000 shares turned over in the final hour. The tcrhnical groundwork for a large price advance in the Inarket has already been formed. Ever since the September decline, with pessimism rife, the market has done nothing worse than back and fill in e comparatively narrow range. Each wave of scare selling has done nothing more than enlarge the base patterns. In some individual issues, particularly in the hevy industry group, these base patterns are of extremely substantial. proportions. !'or eXB.!lJp18, to mention a few mflrket leaders, U. 13. Steel, noV 72 1/4, has a.possible base formation that ould indicate, if upsi6.e reSE tDnce at 76 is penetrated an intermediate rally to 95 viith a possibility of 115. General lotors, now 56 1/4, shaws a comparable 70, Union Carbide, noVi 91 1/2, shows a pOEsible 147 and youngstown Sheet & Tube, now 65 7/8, would indicate 85-88. Secondary issues shJW the possibility of even more startling percentage rises. The selling pressure has been steadily decliing since early November. On the other hanC;, buying inclination has not increased in the same proportions. It n'3eds some chmge in the investor\! and speculator's psychology to increase the urge to buy. When this will happen is not known. It might be tomorrow or it might be two months from now. On the basis of present earnings, not to mention prospective earnings, many issues appear to be greatly undervalued. The techniccl background is all set for a . SUbstantial rise. It needs a spark to set it off. Obviously, there is no change in our advice of the past four months to use periods of price weakness to buy recommended issues. January 25, 1947 EDMU11D \Ii. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing Dow-Jones InCiustrials' Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock ' 175.15 49.16 65.46 The opinions a.praued in this letter ere the personal interpretation of ch.,.. by t-,;4;. Edmund W. l.bell end 6,. not presented 41 tt.e opinions of Shi.ld, & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 27, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 27, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - January 27, 1947
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Technical Market Action The action of the market in the final hour of Monday's session was extremely impressive. On a sharp increase in volume, the motors and steels paced the advance of the industrials to a level above the highs of the margin rally of Saturday a week ago. The intra-day high of the industrial average at 177.55 compares with the January 18th high of 176.77. The closing price was 177.28, up 1.93 on the day. The rails closed 24 cents higher at 49.46 and the intra-day high was -49.55 as.against,the January 18th high of 49.45. Transactions totalled 900,000 shares of vlhich 580,000 shares VIas in the -final' hour. – –; – Consider Monday's action impressive for the following reasons – (1) As mentioned above, prices were able to rally above the last minor high thus confirming the minor trend as up. (2) Ability to vlork into the heavy overhead resistance in 175-179 range in which the market held for twenty-seven trading days from the coal strike settlement on December 7th to January 11th, suggests the possibility of a penetration of the January high of 179.25 and the December rail high of 52.96. This would confirm the intermediate trend as up. (5) Selling pressure has been conSistently declining. An lncreae in buying urge, as would be evidenced by sharply increased volume on the upswing, WOuld indicate that the probabilities favor the theory that the bear market lows were made in October. For the last four months this letter has advised the purchase of recommended issues on market weakness. If this advice has been followed, purchases have already been made at prices, in mQst instances, considerably below present levels. Advise continued retention for substantially higher priCes. – – – — January 27, 1947 EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY losing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 177.28 49.46 65.96 The opInions &lpf'NSeO in this letter ere the personat interpretation of cham by Mr. Edmund W. TebeU end .re not presented 8S the opinions of Shi.td, , Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 29, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 29, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - January 29, 1947
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Technical Market Action The industrial average, on Wednesday, moved into new high territory since the September decline. Volume increased sharply to total 1,530,00 shares. The industrial average closed at 180.17 up 1.49 and the rails were up 56 at 50.86. The industrials decisively penetrated the previous intermediate rally top of 179.25. The rails are still below the December intra-day high of 52.96. In our letter of January 9th, we mentioned the excellent action of the steel group and the extended base patterns that have been built up. The steels have been amotlng the market leaders for the past several sessions, so we are reprinting the list we published on that date. It will be noted that in most instances, individual issues have reached the downside objectives outlined by the early 1946 distribution areas. In, only two instances, American Rolling Mills and Youngstown Sheet & Tube has the upside penetration been reached. Reaching these penetration pOints would indicate an advance to the rally objectives noted. However, several others such as U. S. Steel are very close to reaching these points. The group shows an excellent technical pattern. 1946 !illlli. Allegheny Ludlum 61 1/8 r..mer. Rolling ran 42 3/8 Bethlehem Steel 114 3/4 Granite City Steel 27 1/4 Inland Steel 45 5/8 Jones & Laughlin 53 7/8 Lukens Steel 30 3/4 Midland Steel 62 1/2 Pittsburgh Steel 22 1/2 Republic Steel 407/8 Sharon Steel 40 3/8 u. S. Steel 97 3/8 Wheeling Steel 62 1/2 Youngstown S &T 83 7/8 Downside ObjectNe h2l! 35 – 33 32 – 26 8f' – 81 10 33 33 – 31 15 – 13 34 – 29 6 24 25-16 67-64 38-32 60-55 38 29 5/8 85 5/8 12 1/2 33 1/2 31 5/8 14 32 9 5/8 247/6 23 1/4 65 1/8 36 1/8 57 1/2 Upside Rally Penetration Objective 48 67 37 45 – 51 99 119 16 21 – 24 41 50 – 53 39 48-57 19 23 42 54-58 13 18 30 42 34 45 76 9L 44 69 89 Last S-1.e 457/8 37 961/4 15 39 5/S 367/8 17 7/S 39 3/4 11 1/2 29 1/4 33 1/4 75 7/8 42 1/2 691/8 Advise continued retention of recommended issues which were adised for purchase on weakness over the past four months. EDMUND W. Tr..BELL SHIELDS & COMPANY January 29, 1947 CloSing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-J'ones Rails Dow-Jones 65-stock 180.17 50.66 65.17 TN opinion. expreued In th;, t…… ere the p.nonal 'ntet'pretatioa of cherts by Mr. Edmvftd W. Tebelt .nd ere not presented as the opinions of Shields Ie Company.

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