Viewing Month: March 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 03, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 03, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - March 03, 1947
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Technical Market Action Both stock and commodity prices have recently undergone extremely erratiC and volatile price movements. In the cOQmodity field,in particular, these price movements have been wide and rapid. As a result, most investors and traders are utterly confused as to th current trend of prices, not to mention the intermediate trend of the next fw months or the longer term course of the next year or so. Perusal of nev/spaper headlines and expressions of opinion by radio cocrmentators only add to the confusion. Even an atteppt to evaluate the fundamental background of the economic situation as a whole, or as applied to individual industries, leads to conflicting opinions. What affect will the sharp rise in commodity prices have on the heretofore improving Labor situation Will the commodity rise continue or vall it result in an eventual sharp and rapid drop What affect will recent developments in England have on our price structure What vdll Congress do about taxes and Labor legislation Why do higher earnings and increased diVidends have little or no affect on security values What is the answer to these and many other questions of equal importance The answer 1s not easy to find as is evidenced by the diverse opinions of economists, industrialists and governmet officials. The investing public seems uncertain and apathetic and inclined to the peSSimistiC side. Theft what is the answer Current events and statistics Beem to present a confUSing pattern. Perhaps a look at the technical pattern of the market will fUrnish a clue to the probable course of prices. Obviously, the technical approach will not furnish the direct answer to any of the above questions. It will only reflect the pruchases and sales of an untold number of investors and peculators, large and small, informed and un- informed, domestic and foreign. Their opinion of developments and the trend of the market will be reflected in the supply and demand patterns of the variOUS averages and of nearly fifteen hundred individual stocks. The first conclusion to be drawn from the technical pattern is that the selling pressure has been declining since October. The recent reaction has shown only a moderate increase in downside volume. On the other hand, buying interest has not shown a comparable rise. The publiC is not willing to sell but neither are they interested in buying. This is eVidenced by the low volume and prfeseional character of the market. Such a background is hardly one to indicate a drastic drop in prices. The only development that would change this opinion would be a sharp increase in selling pressure. This has not yet occurred. However, until buying interest revives, no extraordinary rise is indicated, except in special situations. The second. llonclusion to be drawn from the technical pattern is that the market, as reflected by the ow-Jones industrial average, in the early part of 1946 built up a long distributional phase between, roughly, 215 and 195 in the averages. However, the majority odownside objectives for individual issues, as outlined by the extent of their &tributional patterns, were reached in the September-January decline. Since that time, a great many individual issues have built up formidable raceumulation eas in the 175-160 zone. At least, it would appear that recent upside penetrations by individual issues and the averages, indicate that 'such is the case. In that event, substantially higher prices are indiCAted. for .sel.eet.ed llsue s The. third conclusion is that the di&tributional area between 215 and 18lld .t,hEYs1lppQS9d accumulation area between 175 and 160 will present tremen- dous areas of resistance fttt .iIrl subs.equent rise or decline. Both areas are five months in duration wi-eh volume of over .J.2O..,-OOO.OOO shares. It would appear probable that, for a long while, these areas will be entered only momentrily, if trl.-.aU.. in-periods only of extreme optimism or pessimism. / ' . These co.nclusiDn& '10 be drawn bom the technical action of the market l.ead 1.0 -the ilJllow-ing. (1) The market wUl.remain for a long tim'e, except for exceedingly brief periods, in a range between,roughly, 175 and i95. . 2) theketill be extremely selective, with sharp upswings in selected issues and lethal'gic action in others. (3) At the moment, prices are nearer their lows than their highs. The probabilities are that the 1947 low pOint has already been reached ll70.15 in January) As a result we continue to advise retention of recommended issues bought in the lower part of the 175.10 area and advise additional purchases on soft apDts. EDMUND W. TABEU. ' erNP.Fl/JmThe opinions expressed in this letter are the by Mr. Edmund W. febell end ere not pre5ented at the opinions of Shietds & Comp.ny. .,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 06, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 06, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - March 06, 1947
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Technical Market Action On the news of the Lewis decision, the narket iJoved uhead ooderately on fair volULle. The industrial average gained 69 cents at 181.85 and the rails were 50 cents higher nt 51.50. The intra-day highs W8re 18.48 and 51.82. VolwJ8 of transactions totalled 1,020,000 share,s. Both averages have reached new highs since the February 26th loVis of 176.34 and 49.r4 and the ,inor trend is indicated as up. 1'.1so consider the intaTldediate trend as up with an ultildate ubjective of a!'ound 195 and 60. This \1ould be confirlded by a penetration of the February highs of 184.96 and 53,65. A penetration of these two points would undoubtedly convince nost followers of the Dow theory that tre naj()r trend I.as up, pnrt;'cularly if the penetration C'ccurred tv,o or th,ee wecksnftcr the F'ecru,9ry 26th lows. It l.'a8 th e tine e1018nt. that DF.t doubt on thE last penetration. BelieG the current rally win continue into next week with a test of the Februay highs in the offine. ContJ.nue to like Alleghany pfd, Allegheny-Ludlum, Crane &Co., Electric Power & Lig.1jt, Illinois Central, IntCJrnational I11inerals, Mead Corp, Seaboard Air Line, Union Bag and Wheeling Steel. March 6, 1947 EDMUND IV. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closing Doy-Jones Industrials DO'l;-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 181.85 51.50 65.74 The opinions expressed In this letter are tha persond interpretation of chem t,y Mr. Edmund W. labell and ere not prelented e& the opinlonl of Shield. & Comny. ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 07, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 07, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - March 07, 1947
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Technical Market Action The market sold off on Friday in the sharpest break since Septeber. The industrial average closed at 177.05, off 4.83. This closing price Vias fractionally below the February 26th low close of 177.22, but Friday's intra-day low of 176.87 held fractionally above the February 26th low of 176.54. The rail average was dov;n 1.73 at 49.77 and intra-day 101-7 was 49.66. Both these figures were below the February 26th lows. VoluIle was 1,2.10,000 of ihich '180,000 shares was concentrated in the last tiO honrs. 'Friday's action was very disappointing. Recent action led to the belief that the current rally Vlould carry through into next week with a possible nearhy testine of the February highs of 184.96 and 53.65. Friday's action obviously cancdled such ir.1plications. Inability of the rally attellpt to penetrate the February highs has broadened the possible top pattern and indicates a possible further dip to the 174-172 area if the February low of 176.54 is decisively penetrated. There is a possibility that the 175 level L1ight hold but v;ould be ;.lore inclined to anticipate the sonevlhat lower figure. / Ability to hold above the 176 level would be extremely constructive. A decline below that figure lVould be discourlleine for the nearer tern, but would not alter the larger tern pattern. The 1'15-160 area of Septeober-Decenber offers a treoendous support area not far below present levels. March 7, 1947 EDMUND II. TABELL SHIELDS & COl.PANY ClosiM Dov-Jones Industrials Do,'-Jones Rails Dov;-Jones 6(; Stock 177.05 49.77 63.95 The opinions expressed in this letter are the peROnat interpretation of charts by a.Mr. Edmund W. Taball end are not presented the opinions of Shield, I. Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 10, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 10, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - March 10, 1947
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Technical Market Action Monday's Jlarket was firm and quiet for nost of the day but sold off in the final fifteen ninutes of trading on slightly increased volume and finished the day with ninus signs. The industrials closed at 175.18, off 66 cents while the rails were down 42 cents at 48.90. VolwJe totalled 830,000 shas of which 270,000 shares were in the last hour. / In a recent letter, when the industrial average was around 180, it was stated that the technical pattern indicated heavy resistance both above and below the lJarket. Roughly, the upside resistance is between 195 and 213, the distributional area in which the Llarket held for over five nonths in the Spring and early SUJ;llJer of 1946. There is .9.1so r.Jinor resistance at the 185 level, the low of February 1946 decline. This resistance area halted the January-February advance of thj s year when the industrial average reached a high of 184.96 on February 7th. The downside resistance is the 175-160 area of Septef.Jber-DecetJber, 1946. Both of these areas, 195-213 and 175-160, are areas of heavy turnover and cQiparatively narrow r'lnge. Both of these areas, for for a long ti,;e, should furnish strong renistance to both the advance and the decline. It would appear that both these areas will be entered only tJotJentarily, in periods of either extrelJe optitJistJ or extreiile peSSimism/, At Monday's low of 174.75, the average had entered the upper part of the 175-160 support area. lI'hile the breadth of the February-March top indicates a possible dip to the 174-172 level, it would appear that the tJarket has reached, or is very close to, Cl buying level. Recent action has been disappointing, inastJuch as the luarket has shown inability to move Uiead to the upper part of the 195-175 trading area. However, the failure has been due more to lack of buying interest than to any sharp increase in selling pressure. It would appear that until the cautious and nervous attitude of the investing public ceases, the wide and erratic noves, both up and down, must be expected. Unless this possibility is realized, accounts can be definitely whipsawed. The old adage of buying on weakness 3.nd selling on strength SeelJS particularly applicable under present market conditions. Believe the market is very close to a rallnp, pOint. There may be a further dip into the 174-l72 areu but would consiner the broad area between here and 172 as a buying range. Issu8s that S1;o'7 better than market action include American Power & Light, j,rmour, Cudahy, General Cable, Howe Sound, Penn-Dixie Celuent and Republic Steel. March 10, 1947 EDMUND IV. TABELL SHIELDS & CmlPANY Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Ruils Dow-Jones 65-Stock 175.18 48.90 63.24 Th. oph,lonl exprOSed in thll tette, ..re the person. Interpretation of et..rts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and are not presented as the opinions of Shields Compeny. 1

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 13, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 13, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - March 13, 1947
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Technical Market Action In one of tho dullest sessions of the past few years, the market closed fractionally louer on Thursday. Volume totalled 650,000 shares of which 200,000 was in the f.inal hour. The industrial average closed 55 cents lower at 174.55 and the rails vlere down 6 cents at 48.82. Prices on active issues were at the day's lows at tho close. At Tuesday's low of 175.09,the avrages had reached the middle of the 174-172 support area oe,ntioned in recent letters. This support area is slightly above the January low of 170.15. Expect this area to hold but r'ith the preponderance of bearish feeling about, it would appear that the market nill spend core title around the 174l72 area in the process of building up a base pattern! This cay cause sooe further irregularity end a lapse of time before more than a trading market developes. However, believe that, at around Tuesday'sloue, the market is in a buying range in line with the opinion expressed recently that the oarket will hold in the 175-195 range for the maj or part of the lP ar Viith the outer lioits of this range being penetrated only IJomen tarily in periods of extremA pessicism or efvl'ene optimism. It would nppear that theopr.ae.en't is' ,One of r6l1ler p.seillismi !, The writer will be in California for a short time visiting our Vlest coast correspondents, Walston, Hoffman & Goodwin. However, will continue to write this letter from there. EDMUND Vi. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY March 15, 1947 Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 174.55 48.82 65.02 The opinionpressed in this lette, ere the personal Interpretation of charts by a.Mr. Edmund W. Tabell and ere not pr..ented the opinions of Shields & Campeny.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 18, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 18, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - March 18, 1947
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Technical Market Action WRITTEN IN SAN FRANCISCO At Friday's and Saturday's intra-dllY lOViS of 171.94 and 171.90, the market had reached the lower limit of the 172-174 flrea. This area has been mentioned in recent letters as a strong support zone. Individual issues also have met support at the proper resistance levels and the rally of lilonday and Tuesday has broug!1t the averages back to the 174-175 area. For the near term would expect upside resistance at the 176-179 area. Expect a continuation of irreular narket action, on snaIl volwne, as the narket builds up a base area in the niddle 170s. Continue to like the technical patterns of nerous individual issues. , Included in this group are American Rolting iJil1s, Ar.lfJrican \'ater V;orks, Chicago & Northwestern, Crane & Coznpany, Deere & Coznpany, General Cable, Illinois Ce,l'ltral, Penn-Dixie Cement, Seaboard Air Line, SiInmons, Union Bag and Wheling Steel. The air line issues have nlso shown strong resistance in the recent decline and have built up good base patterns. United Air Lines, Northwestern Airlines and TliA seezn to have the lJOst fnvorable patterns in the group. EDMUND Ii'. TABELL SHIELDS & COI,.FANY March 18, 1947 Closin Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Joncs Rails DOH-Jones 65-Stock 174.95 48.70 63.06 Th. opinions exprenea in this letter are the panon.S Interpretet10n of cham by Mr. Edmund W. lebell end are not presented .1 the opinTonl of Shield, I Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 20, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 20, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - March 20, 1947
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Technical Market Action WRITTEN IN SAN FRANCISCO This week's rally carried the industrial average back to 176.90, regaining five points of the thirteen point decline from the February highs. Thus the market has followed the normal technical pattern of regaining one-third to two-thirds of the preceding move. Would expect further backing and filling in an area between roughly 179 and the recent low of 171.90. During this period, the market may build up a base pattern for an ultUJate testing of the February highs. The importnt paints to watch are the January low of 170.13 and February high of 184.90. Penetration of either of these points would be of major significance marketwise. Continue to favor the upside and expect, after SOme further irregularity, a penetration of the February highs. However, expect any rise to be selective. Continue to advise purchase of recommeded issues on soft spots. EDiUND \.. TABELL SHIELDS & COIfrPANY March 20, 1947 Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 175.57 48.42 65.05 ..Th. oplIOI\ expre…d in this lette, .,. the personM interpretation of ch.rts by Mr. Edmund W. Tebell and 4llre not pr…nted .s the opinions of Shield, & Compilny

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 25, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 25, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - March 25, 1947
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Technical Market Action WRITTEN IN LOS ANGELES t.fter reaching n high of 177.51 last week, the J1arket turned extrer.;ely dull and for the first two days of the week \oorked irregularly lovler Oll volUl.'1e – o!11y 580,000 shares on j,ionciay and 660,000 shares on Tuesdey. Voluf.le increesed in the laGt hour dip of Tuesday after a turnover of only 400,000 in the first four hours. The industrials closed 1.11 lower at 175.29 and the rails were down 27 cents at 48.28. Expect sane furthor irregularity for the balance of the Vleek vlith the industrial average possibly working down to the 173-174 level As Dentioncd in our letter of Jast Tuesday, it was expected that the rally fron 171.90 low woulG Deet -esistance in the 176-179 area to be folloved by irregularity and another dip to build up D. larger base. So fer this pattern has worked out. Would he inclined to buy on further softness in anticipation of a Spring rally that l'Iou.ld carry above the Februa-y high of 184.90. See no chnne in the longer terrJ opinion expressed recently thnt the ot.1rket ill for the greater part of the year hold in the 175-195 rnnge. Only in periods of extrele'opessirliso or extrerJe optioislJ Viill the lJarket !Jove below or above this range nd then only for short periods of tine. Continue to advise purchase of reCOl;)!Jonded issues on dips. Like,Bnong others, Seaboard Air Line R. R., Illinois Central, Chicago Northv,estern in rail group and Republic Steel, Crane, Union B9.g, Sinnons, General Cable, United Airlines, Transcontinental & Western and D&ere in the industrial group. EDI.IUND \'/. TABE1L SHIELDS & COllPANY March 25, 1947 Closing Dow-Jones Induxtrials DOVi-Jones Rails Dor.-Jones 65-Stock 175.29 48.28 62.95 The opinions expressed in thi' tetter ate the penona1 interpretation of ch.rk by Mr. Edmund W. Taball and are not pretented e. th. optnion. of Shl.ld, 1 Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 31, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 31, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - March 31, 1947
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Technical Market Action WiRITTEN IN SAN FRANCISCO After irregular price trends in the earlier hours of Monday's narket ,weakness in 1 lerican IIoo1en and Scl)enley resulted in an abrupt selloff in final hour of tradi)j,. Volu,Je lihich had been at the extretle1y slow pace of only 430,000 shares for the first four hours of tradinc increased in the final hour ..ith vo1u;Je for the day tote-Hint; 720,000 shares. The industrials lost 1.16 at 177.20 unel the rails were 51 cents lower at 48.6,1. See no change in the general narket pattern. The narket is extrenely nervous end volatile and \lith trading largely professional in character is subj ect to / brupt swings in sentiJlent C'ngendered by newspaper and radio COLli.lent. SOD further irregularity l.lUY occur as floor traders shift positions back and forth, but sel1in6 pressure as easured by the 1.1arket as a ;,ho1e continues to decline. Consider recor.ll.lended issues a purchase on weakness mel believe the February hi..,hs lill be penetrated in the Spring interuediate upswing. Support below the IJarket is at the 174-175 rantle. Air line issues which have been recor.ulenJed in recent letters shOl,ec. early strength ,md reachecl nel. hihs but sold off rrith the ,.eneral list in the final hour. Believe they are a purchase like United Airlines, NorthYest Airlines and Transcontinental & \iestern Air; , ED!.'lUND \i. TABELL SHIELDS & COilP1.NY Mc.rch 51, 1947 DOVi-,Tcpes Industrials DOl;l-Jones Rai's Dovl-Jones 65-Stock 177.20 48.64 63.56 Tlte opinions pressed In this letter are the personal interpretottoh of cherts by Mr. Edmund W. labell .nd are not presented al the opinions of Shield. Company.

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