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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 02, 1987

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 02, 1987

Tabell's Market Letter - January 02, 1987
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– / TABELL'S MARKET LETTER …. –, I j I I, 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS,INC (609) 987-2300 January 2. 1987 -……- E()rsom-e.-yea rsnGW… we-havtuclie.9.-the-Jamilsonal.,…tendenc…….ofthestockmarketto ,tostage -a year-erfd'rally.'and it has been-the custom of this letter -poi;it out some of the' – conclusions that can be derived from a study of this phenomenon. Since 1897. when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was first computed, a rally, however small. has begun in December and continued into the new year in 87 of 89 cases. the two exceptions occuring in the mid 1970's. The following facts about the year-end rally may be noted. 1. The year-end rally often has been of great magnitude. occasionally continuing through the entire subsequent year without a 5 correction being recorded. This was the case in 1985. It has frequently continued. with only minor interruptions. for as long as six months into the new year. In many cases. with 1986 being the most recent. the rally continued into February, March or beyond. However, on other occasions, it has been of only a few day's duration. reaching a top extremely early as was the case in 1983-4 when the rally peaked on January 6. which turned out to be the high for the year. In the bear-market years of 1960. 1970. 1973. 1974. 1981. and 1982. the rally reached a peak by the first week in January. and. as noted above. the 1976 and 1977 year-end rallies failed entirely to carry into January. 2. There has been a persistent tendency for the rally to begin early in years when the market has been up, and late in years when the market has been down. In recent upward years. 1967. 1975. 1979. 1980. and 1985 are examples. the rally commenced from early December. In recent downward years. 1962. 1966. 1969. 1977. and 1981. the rally began late in the year. 1986 was an exception. an upward year with a late-starting year-end rally. 1– —3.-T-,-he,—,i,,m,p'ortant thing…ghinconnection with..!hel11arket action in the early' montlJ-s J of .lYle new year is the December low;'- This low has -been broken in 51 years out of the past 86. However. in 30 of these 51 cases. it was broken in January and February. For example in 1970. 1973. 1977. 1978. 1981. and 1982. the December low was broken in early January. Since 1937. it has never been broken later than mid-March with three exceptions 1965. 1974. and 1981. when it was finally penetrated in August. Thus. if the market is able to hold above its December low for the first 2 1/2 months of the year. chances become good that this low will not be penetrated. 4. In years when the December low has been broken. the subesequent trend has been downwards two-thirds of the time. 1962. 1966. 1969. 1973. 1974. 1977. and to some degree. 1984. are typical cases. 1965. 1978. 1980. and. most recently. 1982 are exceptions. 5. The magnitude of the rally is an important clue as to the year's market trend. For example. an advance of 10 or more from the December low has been followed by an upward or neutral market in 38 of the 44 years that such an advance has occurred. An advance of less than 10 or more from the December low before an identifiable correction takes place has been followed by a downward market in 30 of the 42 years. Iwboth 1985 and 1986. the year-end rally was well in excess of 10. In 1962. 1970. 1973. and 1977. as examples. it was less than this figure. 6. The length of time in which the rally continues into the new year is important. For example, in 26 years. the rally continued into March or later. In 22 of these 26 years, the eventual trend was upward. In 1964. 1972. 1975. 1976. 1985. and 1986. the year-end rally continued into March and in 1961. 1967. 1971. and 1980. into February. \ This year. therefore. the December low. reached December 31 at 1895.95 will become an important reference point to watch. If the Dow is able to advance from this low by 10. roughly to the 2100 level. or continue a rally into February and March. the long-term historical implications would be bullish. AWTbh Dow Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) 1914.37 S & P 500 (1200 p.m.) 244.93 Cumulative Index (12/31/86) 3129.87 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. WE WISH YOU ALL A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR! NO statement or epresslon 01 opinion or an other malter herein contained IS or IS 10 be deemed to be directly or indirectly, an ofler or the soliCitation of an offer 10 buy or sell any security referred loor mentioned The matter IS presented merely ferlhe convenience oj thesubscnber While we behevethe sources 01 our Information to be reliable we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor cllhe statements made herein Any aCllon to be \alen bylhe subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and information Oata/leld, Harvey, label! Inc. as a corporation and liS olhcers or \'lmployees, may now have or may later take, posillons or trades In respect 10 any securities men1!oned In thiS or any future Issue and such pOSItion may be drllerent from any views now 01 heleafter epressed In thiS or any other Issue Oelafleld, Harvey Tabell Inc which 15 registered with the SECas an Investment adVisor, may give advice to Its Investment adVisory and oth/Y customers Inde;lendenlly of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Inlormatron on any secunty mentioned herein IS avallabte on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 09, 1987

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 09, 1987

Tabell's Market Letter - January 09, 1987
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I TABELL'S MARKET LETTER —….. 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9872300 January 9, 1987 – – – -S18nley-ubrickexplored'regions-beyond OUI known–limiting–layers-oftimendspa-ce–as'he-',-,,,,d– took us in his filni'to 2001 A Space Odyssey. On Thursday the Dow Joneslndustrial Average took us on a similar type journey by closing at a record high of 2002.25. In the short span of five trading days this year, the DJIA has advanced an impressive 106.30 points. and in so doing has broken out of a two hundred and fifty-point trading range that has contained the averages since April, 1986. For these past few months we have tried to determine if this trading range might be a distributional top indicating lower levels. as leadership seemed to be narrowing to a select few issues. or whether we were witnessing a consolidation phase preparatory to 8 new bull market leg. as it became evident that rotational leadership changes were taking place within the market. Evidence for the latter, more positive view is clearly emerging as recent market strength is apparent in the DJIA and all of the broader-based market averages. Underlying this action for the first time in months, has been the marked internal improvement in the action of breadth statistics. As we attempt to show in the chart below, it becomes easy to see that the recent strength in the DJIA has been coupled with a strong underlying market improvement, i.e. breadth action. As can be seen since the April, 1986 high in the DJIA, the breadth of the market has been in a corrective phase throughout the entire year. Each attempt at a rally in breadth was unsuccessful, reflecting lower highs throughout the entire declining period. Since the first of this year, however, the clearly defined downtrend line of the breadth index has been dramatically broken, reaching a level currently above the two previous highs. Classical interpretation of this indicator based on the number of advancing stocks and declining stocks for each day, suggests that when successive new highs in the Dow are unaccompained by new highs in breadth, a divergence condition exists, indicating a potential correction in the market to follow. Conversely, extended periods where breadth outperforms the Dow are normally suggestive of bull market conditions. Therefore, further strength in the market would now suggest conventional breadth interpretation to indicate an intact bull market with a possible lengthy life span ahead of it, erasing entirely any potential negative divergence condition Which previously existed. Major market declines do not historically emerge overnight. They tend to be preceded by a lengthy process of deterioration, a process that does not appear to be present in the current environment. Also, highs in breadth are regularly recorded well ahead of -highs in the market, usually with substantial lead-tWes ..When we look at another measure of market leadership, the lO-day average of the difference between new highs and lows, we find another series that is also improving. and supporting an improved stock m\arket environment. How does this recent market action fit in with lour 1987 forecast It is, of course, too early to tellj however, continued new highs, accompained by good breadth could mean that the early-December upside breakout was real. As we stated in our year-end letter. !four best case scenario for 1987 would be a continuation of the trading range with a later upside breakout. Perhaps this upside breakout has happened sooner rather than later in the year. If this is the case, cash reserves should be committed to the equity market. RJSbh Dow Jones Industrials S & P 500 Cumulative Index 1988.89 256.48 3332.63 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. NO statement or expression of opinion o any other mattor herein contained IS or IS to be deemed to be, dIrectly or IndIrectly, an offer or the solicitatIon of an offer 10 buy or sell any secunty reterred to or mentIoned The matter IS presented merely lor tho convemence of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our Inlormallon to be rellabte, we In noway represent orQuaranteethe accuracy lhereof nor 01 the slat am ants made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hIS own investIgation and mformatlon DelafIeld, Harvey, Tebell Inc, as a corporation and 115 officers or employees may now have, or may later take positions or trades In respect to any SeCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such POSition may be dilierent from any views now or heleafter e'(presStld In thiS or any othellssue Delafield Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Invest men I adVisor, maYQlve adVIce to Its Investment adVISory and Olho- customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other ISsue Further Information on any secullty mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 16, 1987

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 16, 1987

Tabell's Market Letter - January 16, 1987
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U'& IBUELL'S Ia1iI&R(EU' L(EU'''U'(ER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 January 16, 1987 For years now. our colleagues have chided us for managing to be out of town at important — —–OmiirKel.9urning -P-Oi,llts Weere- able to–addtothisrecord lastweekby -takingashort,skiing..,……,– vacation just as the market initiated its runaway 1987 – rally. However, Hi last week's letter, our colleague, Bob Simpkins, was able to comment on the significance of the upside explosion. It is only necessary for us, therefore, to expand on those comments and to take a further look at the continued strength which was a feature of 1987's second week. If we gained anything at all by missing the fireworks, it was that we were required to undergo a minimal amount of blather about the Dow's upside penetration of 2000, That this phenomenon managed to occur last week is doubly ironic. since reaching 2000 is about the only acheivement of no technical significance which has taken place in the past fortnight. Last week's market, as will be seen, was truly of major-league dimensions insofar as short-term strength is concerned. However, the fuss over a number which happens to end in three zeroes managed to obscure some of the comment that this short-term strength deserved. Many aspects of 1987 to date are worthy of note and one which is difficult to quantify should probably be mentioned first. That is that market action to date seems to be typical of what can be called the Itnew-style market bottom in that it erupted suddenly and unexpectedly following a market characterized by lassitude and dullness. The same pattern, essentially, prevailed in August, 1982 and July, 1984. By contrast, major market drops prior to 1982 had tended to bottom with selling climaxes—sharp plunges, on heavy volume followed immediately by equally sharp upside reversals. We have long stated that the former should be the case in a market dominated by professional managers under pressure to perform, and if January, 1987 proves to mark a low of some importance, it will constitute yet another proof of this hypothesis. Through Wednesday of this week, the rally of 1987 had occupied nine trading days, and we attempted during the week to repeat a study which we undertook shortly after the 1982 bottom. 1–J JTJllaXQ9 consistedoLseekip,g out the strongest 50-periods of nine trading.Jlliy.-,;sm,-',te,!,r-ms'-I of DJIA advance, bread-ih advance, and volume expansion. Without going into details,- let it be said that, historically. periods following such cases have tended to show above-average strength and have been followed by declines in only a small minority of cases. The study is, of course. reinforced by Thursday's additional extraordinary strength which, in terms of the Dow. extended the rise to ten consecutive trading days. The Dow-Jones Industrials had advanced 7.33 in the nine days ended Wednesday, a figure that has been exceeded by only 19 periods in the post-1949 era. Interestingly, the nine days leading to the December 2 high of 1955 produced a slightly larger advance, and the nine days following the August, 1982 low. of course, set the record for periods of that length with a 14.36 rally. The July. 1984 advance was 10.7, but, eVen so, the current instance remains impressive. It is in terms of breadth that the recent upswing really stands out, ranking fifth in the modern era by showing an average of 58.89 of all issues traded advancing on a daily basis. August, 1982 is again the leader in this category with 61.67, but the current case is not that far off. The interesting thing is that this broad rally occurred following seven months of sub-par breadth action, a feature which we will be discussing below. Volume figures produced by the current market are somewhat suspect, since we are measuring against the two low-volume, holiday markets following Christmas and New Year's. Even so, the rise in volume as the rally got underway has to be counted as one of the leaders of recent years. We noted above that markets following the sort of strength demonstrated in this year tend overwhelmingly to be strong ones. It is, however, difficult to formulate an upside target. The small base formed during the second half of 1986 suggests nothing more than a target in the mid-2100's, hardly a startling advance from this level. Also, our daily breadth index as noted-in last week's letter, has penetrated an importantdowntrelid -lin-Cbuthas fiot yet — achieved a new peak above that of April 21 although it has recovered more than 3/4 of the loss shown during that time. The other quarter of the lost ground would have to be recovered before we could say that the divergence initiated last April had been definitely obliterated. Justice Holmes noted that Certainty generally is illusion and repose is not the destiny of man. The market's limited upside objectives and the possibility of a continuing breadth divergence continue to inject an element of uncertainty as far as the current market is concerned. It can, however, be demonstrated, as we have tried to do above, that strength, akin to that of the last two weeks has tended to beget further strength. The current investment policy, therefore, should be geared to recognize that probability. Cumulative Index Dow Jones Industrial S & P 500 3446.41 2072.69 246.46 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVE Y, TABELL IN C. No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS or IS to be deemed to be directly or Indirectly an offer or Ihe soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any secunty referred toor mantlOned The matter IS presented merely forthe convenrence 0/ the subscriber While we believe the sources of our in/ormation to be reliable we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor olthe statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Informallon Delafield Harvey Tabell Inc as a corporation and Its otfrcers or employnes, may now have or may tater take, pOSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future ISsue nd such posl\lon my be dlflemn\trorn any views now or hereaftcr e)(pressed In thIS or any other Issue Delafield Harvey Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Inestment adlsor may give adVice to lis Investment adVisory and othe' customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herein I available on reQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 23, 1987

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 23, 1987

Tabell's Market Letter - January 23, 1987
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 987-2300 January 23. 1987 .- – -'—-'c-NOTEr-,DUe9totglle-!snoWsti!so-r,!mingtli-e-NorftJj-easft-t.-tgheIines-b-'Iow.-'wel'e-co,,-mposed-OPl1!'or-to-th!!e,—,-.- 50-point rise of January 22. and today's continuing strength. They remain. however. m our Vlew. entirely appropriate in light of that rally. Thursday's New York Times featured a headline in the Business Section. noting that A Preplexing Rally Has Wall Street Jittery. Probably as good a way as any to place the current stock market in perspective is to attempt to explore some of the reasons for that jltteriness and perplexity. An initial observation would be ,that such feelings are perflectly normal at the outset of any long advance. This is a truism that many investors are prone to forget. Were one to search through financial news headlines around. say. late August. 1982. a fair number simdar in tone to the one quoted above could probably be found. Even the technician. accustomed to reversal behavior. is aware that such behavior has often been followed by a test of previous lows. One of the best signs of a bottom is the extent to Which one feels nervous shortly after it's occurance. One cure for the jitters is to remind oneself that it seldom pays to fight the tape. Any rudimentary historical analysis of market behavior will reveal that unusual strength. most of the time. tends to beget further strength. There is. moreover. little doubt. as we pointed out last week. that the strength demonstrated in 1987 is of the sort generally characterizing market bottoms. This remains true for all three of the indicators we discussed last week; percentage advance. breadth. and volume. It is the behavior of breadth on the recent rally that has been by far the most extraordinary. At Its high on January 20. our daily Breadth Index had recovered a full 80 of the ground it had lost OVer a seven-month period from April. Weekly breadth was at new highs. Also attesting to the broadness of the advance was the behavior of secondary and tertiary stocks, issues which had been relative non-participants in most of the rallying phases that 1–li——-01!lc'…- m – – – v …….. uit'C'is thi;O;;;eadth behavior which differentiates the current market from one that has been cited by some analysts. the rise into January. 1973. which ultimately turned out to be an important market top. That rise did. indeed. feature a dynamic advance and record volume. just as has the most recent instance. The early-1973 market was. however. notable for its total lack of breadth. with a two-year divergence showing no signs of reversal on the day that the Dow made its high. We have tried. as best we can. to suggest that 1987's behavior so far is likely to be a harbinger of better things to come. and that it is wise to wrestle with the natural tendency toward nervousness at reversals. There are, however. a few valid reasons for perplexity which are worth noting. First. of course. is the fact. noted last week. that a breadth divergence still exists. It would take very little market strength to erase it. but'increasing scepticism would not be improper given a continued failure to erase that divergence. Likewise. recent figures for daily new highs have been somewhat disappointing. Further improvement in this area would also be a sign of a healthy advance. Perhaps the best reason for perplexity. however. is the background out of which the current advance has emerged. We have noted that It has. in many ways. been comparable to August. 1982 and July. 1984. Periods of dullness preceded the lows in both at of these instances. However. 1982 took place after a recognizable major bear market and 1984's rise followed what was. at least. an intermediate decline. The current rally by contrast. comes following a market that was. admittedly. dull. but not all that bad. We have regularly characterized the last three quarters of 1986 as a trading range possessing a slight upward bias. The year's close of 1985.95 was. after all. some 350 pOints above the level of a year ago. It was also around the mid-point of the year's trading range. Unlike it's predecessors. the strength of January. 1987 did not arise out of a recognizable correctIon. This is reflected in the patterns of individual stocks. A great many of the upside breakouts that have taken place so far—andthey are. indeed. taking place in large numbers—are- continuation patterns. periods of a few months of backmg and filling after sharp advances in 1984-86. Such patterns tend to produce smaller rises than the major advances WhlCh generally follow the long-term bases following major individual-stock bear markets. The Dow. it must be remembered. has advanced some 170 since August. 1982. It is hardly surprislng. therefore. to find such long-term bases consplcuoUS by their abscence. As long as this remains so. it is probably proper to retain a degree of healthy sceptiCIsm regarding the current rise. Such a attitude. however. should not be an excuse for failure to participate. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. AWTbh Dow Jones Industrials 2165.49 S P 500 276.43 Cumulative Index 3465.78 NO statement or expression 01 opmlon or any other matter herem contained IS or IS to be deemed to be directly or Indirectly, an oller or the solicltahoo of an oller to buy or self any security referred toor mentlonel The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our mformatlon to be reliable, we m no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any action to be taken by the subscflber should be based on his own mves\!gatlon and mlormatlon Delafield, Harvey, Tabelf Inc, as a corporation and ItS officers or employees, may now have Of may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentlonelln thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSl\lon may be different from any VieNS nOwor hereafter e)(pressed m thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey Tabefl Inc which IS reg1slerelwlth the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give advice to ItS Investment adVISOry and othe' cuSlOmers mdependently 01 any statements made 1fl thiS or In any other Issue Further mformatlonon any secuflty mentioned herem IS available on reQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 30, 1987

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 30, 1987

Tabell's Market Letter - January 30, 1987
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (6091987-2300 January 30, 1987 Since this publication is a technical market letter, there exists an almost obligatory topic for the current issue. That topic is an examination of the rather amazing stock market day which took place on Friday, January 23, when the Dow moved over a 1l0-point range within an hour and volume reached a record 302 million shares. Most readers will have seen the chart, produced by an online computer service, which shows the index up 64 points just before 2 o'clock, down 50 points a hour later, up 10 points and then, finally, down 44 points. While we were watching all of this taking place, there occurred the distinct impression that we were witnessing intra-day volatility which exceeded that of any stock market day within our own experience. Many of our colleagues had the same impression. Once the dust had settled last week, it became incumbent upon us to quantify that impression. The best way to have done so, of course, would have been to measure the total length of the line produced on the chart referred to above. This would have been possible, but, obviously, there would be no historical experience with which to compare it. The best proxy we could think of was to take the spread between the intra-day high and low in the Dow and express that spread as a percentage of the close. The Dow's intra-day high on January 23 was 2214.57, and its low 2062.85. That spread of 151.72 points was 7.22 of the 2101.52 close. This was, at least, was a figure that could be compared with the past, or, in any case, the most recent 13 years, since our computer data bank contains comparable figures back to 1974. Friday's level was, indeed, a record for the period, although not by as much as we expected, a 6.57 spread having occurred on October 9, 1974. It was, however, hardly an all-time high, something we ve-rirled with hand calcualtions for various periods. The first day to zero in on was obviously Black Tuesday, October 29, 1929, on which date the figure was 17.24. More on this later. What was most interesting about this study, however, was the correlation between periods of high intra-day volatility and better markets over the intermediate-longer term. We had, in our data bank, a total of 3054 trading days with the high and low for the day recorded. For those days, the Dow was up six months later on 1925 occasions, 69.329 of the total number. There existed a total of 117 observations when the intra-day percentage spread, as computed above, was oVer 3 percent. Six months after the 117 high-volatility days the market was up in 108 cases or 92. Such a degree of correlation is, to say the least, highly unusual. The most important market bottoms tended tb be accompanied by large clusters of figures greater than 3, a cluster being defined as a number of consecutive days without a five-day interruption. There were, for example, 38 such days preceding and following the October, 1974 low. There were three such days around the Halloween Massacre in October, 1978, and six days around Silver Thursday in 1980. Clusters, likewise, appeared around the August, 1982 bottom and the secondary low made in October. Even the 1929 experience was partially accurate, since it occurred as part of a 28-day cluster surrounding the November 13, 1929 low, which, in turn, preceded a sharp recovery into April, 1930. It is too early to say whether the current experience qualifies as being par!.-(E.a cluster. There have been, so far, only two days, January 22 and January 23, where the high-low spread exceeded 3 percent. Through yesterday, there followed four days of trading this week in which the spread was lower. In any case, however, it seems fair to state that the sort of volatility that occurred last Friday has, with an astonishing degree of regularity, been a precursor of higher rather than lower prices. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. AWTbh Cumulative Index 3475.56 Dow Jones Industrial 2147.50 S & P 500 272.68 No statement or e..presslOn of oplfllon or any other matter herem contained IS or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or indirectly. an oller or the soliCitation of an offer 10 buy or sel! any security referred loor mentIOned The matler IS presented merely forthe convenience 01 the subSCriber While we behevethc sources 01 our mlormallon 10 be reliable, we In noway represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof norol the statements made herem Any action to bc laken by the subScriber should be based on hiS own mvestlgatlon and Information Delafield Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and liS ottlcers or employces, may now have Of may later take, positions or trades In respect to any securlhes mentioned In thiS or any luture Issue, and such position may be dlfferenltrom any views now or helcal1cr Q)(pressed mthls or anyothor Issue Delafield, Harvev, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVICe to Its Investment adlsory and othc' customQrs Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Inlorma\lon on any security mentioned herein IS available on reQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 06, 1987

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 06, 1987

Tabell's Market Letter - February 06, 1987
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– – —– v IBUSB.B.'5 IRlC;;IEV B.IEVVIEIRl 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRI NCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 – February 6. 1987 I –,- .P.!E.ary seems to be trying to start with the same vigor that January did. as the pieces —- – – – confirming- ….. o.n uptrendcl-niajorproporUonscontinuet -fall-into pla(!lr-!,he-'advance'from the– ! 1986 year-end is now 16.1 which, among other things, extends the year-end rally to well above the 10 threshold which has tended in the past, to foreshadow upward markets. Additionally. as of yesterday's close. our Daily Breadth Index posted a new high. confirming the uptrend and suggesting that it will be of some duration, since breadth peaks can lead market peaks by 8S much 88 two years. A few weeks ago. as the advance was getting under way, someone asked us if we were suprised by the sudden strength, and We answered no. We were then asked whether we had predicted it, and the only honest answer to that was also negative. The reason for this apparent paradox is that 1987. along with its predecessors. 1982 and 1984. has taken the shape of what we have called new-style market bottom. In the past, a characteristic of major lows was generally a selling climax, in which most of the action took place on the downside followed by 8 short vo1ume reversal. 1987 constitutes the third occurrence of a bottom preceded by dull. rather than precipitous. downside action suddenly and unexpectedly interrupted by 8 sharp upward thrust. Such reversals are. by their very nature. difficult to predict in advance. The key is to recognize the emerging uptrend at an early stage, rather than pin-pointing the actual bottom. It is worthwhile to compare the action of this year so far with the early stages of its two predecessors. As noted, the Dow is now up 16.1 after 24 trading days. By this measure, it falls. so far. a bit short of the 27-day 20.3 advance. which initiated the upswing of August, 1982. However, it betters the 14.1 advance over 20 days which began the upswing in July. 1984. With our breadth index reaching a new high, only 24 trading days after posting an eight-month low. it is not surprising that advance-decline figures should be exhibiting the same sort of reversal dynamics which characterized the past two upswings. Again the current 1–,I-,maueLfa11aabLof1982w.hich.on.As1U-produced 1564 advancing stocks—a record 81 of all issues traded. Early August, 1984, saw three consecutive days where more than 68 of all stocks changing hands advanced. The first two days of the present rally showed similar reversal characteristics. On January 2, and January 5, 77.3 and 79.9 of issues traded were advancing stocks. Volume in the year so far is also comparable to what occurred at the start of the two previous major upswings. Our normal standard for measuring a volume reversal has been the occurrence of a day on which daily volume exceeds 150 of its own 25-day moving average. This threshold was bettered in 1982 when. on August 18. 132 million shares or 230 of the last 25 days' average volume were traded. The 1984 low saw, on August 3, the first 200 million-share day in market history. this level being 258 of the 25-day average. The first 300-million-share day two weeks ago was not quite as impressive but still belongs in the same ballpark as the other two. Volume reached 172 of its 25-day average. We have been trying, of course. to make the point that 1987 market action to date compares favorably to that following August 12. 1982. and July 24. 1984. If one accepts this thesis. a comparison of the aftermaths of those two lows should be relevant. 1982. after its initial upswing. produced a 4.1. 7-day downtrend. followed by another 13.3 advance. No meaningful reversal occurred before the Dow had posted a high of 1065 on November 3. 58 trading days after the low at 776. A comparable advance today. would produce 2600 on the Dow before the end of this month. In 1984. the market paused for a good while following the initial upswing. remaining in a narrow trading range for some 94 trading days. If this pattern were followed in the present instance, the Dow would drift sideways, but hold above, roughly. 2050 until early April. before moving ahead once more. Finally. it is necessary to remind ourselves of the full extent of the 1982-83 and 1984-86 advances. It is difficult to pick out the high in the most recent case, since most of 1986 consisted of' asideways trading -range. At the earliest high scored. at the–end -of- March of last year. the average had advanced 67.7 from its 1984 low. At its peak at the end of November, 1983. the Dow was up 75. Comparable action would call for the average to be in the 3200-3300 range before the current upswing terminates. This is not to be interpreted as a forecast. as any number of developments could change the outlook at any time. It is simply intended as a demonstration of what the strength of 1987 so far has the potential to produce. ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD. HARYEY. TAB ELL INC. AWTbh Dow Jones Industrial S & P 500 Cumulative Index (215187) 2200.50 281.07 3592.68 NO statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contamed Is or IS 10 be deemed to be directly or mdlrectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an oller to buy orsetl any security referred toor montloned The matter IS presented merely iorthe convenience of the subSCriber While we beheve the sources of our mformatlon tobe reliable we in no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any actIOn to be taken by the subsctlber should be based on hiS own Investigation and information Detafleld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now havo, or may tater take, positions or trades m respect to any securltlos mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be dl1iel(lnt from any views nowor hereafter epressed m this or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabel! Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Invest mont adVisor, may give adVice lolls Investment adVisory and olhe' customers mdependently of any statements made In thiS Of m any other Issue Further Information on any security men\!oned herem IS available on request ,-/

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 13, 1987

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 13, 1987

Tabell's Market Letter - February 13, 1987
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 February 13, 1987 We hope we have made it abundantly clear in our last few letters that We regard the early-1987 . strengtll. aSA! h8r;binger.ofur.ther–str-eng.th……to-come.—W-e feel'tha t–8 full y-investedposition;is–the'- -0 only proper one, given that anticipated strength. Having affirmed this, we feel free to issue a few caveats. It must be noted, first of all, that the Dow is up some 183 over four-and-a-half years. In that period, there have been only two noticeable corrections, a 17 drop in the DJIA in 1983-84 and the trading range which confined the market in the first nine months of 1986.. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that a few fully exploited areas present themselves. The point-and-figure chart above, at left, a one-point chart of American Brands, is purposely chosen 8S an example of the most common chart pattern existing today. The base between 41 and 49 clearly indicates an objective in the mid 70's, and it has just pulled back into strong support. Fundamentally, the stock is expected to earn 4.75 this year. making the pIe ratio a conservative 10. However, the chart pattern is one which technicians call a continuation pattern, one that is formed by a pause in a continuing uptrend. Such a pattern must be contrasted with the sort of major base which starts an important move. Such a base attern is shown b Chevron at right. above. The stock reBched .alow of.. 24jnearly1 1982. and has spent the entire period since that time forming a broad base. Therefore. despite apparent fundamental weakness, the pattern must be considered particularly strong in comparison to the continuation-type pattern which now characterizes the majority of stocks. Another type of pattern not too uncommon today is the one in which evidence of exploitation has reached an extreme phase, typified by the two-point-unit chart of Merck above, at left. Although the potential top ia small, the stock has tripled since 1984 and recently sold at almost 30 times trailing 12-months earnings. Although a sharp earnings increase is projected for 1987. the technical pattern suggests that the stock is fully priced. One of the weaker sort of chart patterns now extant is shown by IBM, above at right, one of the most widely' held of all issues; The-stock moved to a two-year'low late last year, ana the-base f6rmed— since is miniscule. Any further upside action would be severly hampered by the overhead supply between 150 and 160, and the stock would have to be considered a sale on strength to that area. These four different patterns are shown to suggest that, while the general market outlook continues to be good, selectivity, typical of the late stages of major upside moves, is beginning to emerge. Similarly. it is late enough in terms of the major cycle that minimizing downside risk should become an important goal in the stock-selection process. For this reason, portfolios should be weighted in favor of those stocks just corning off long-term bases rather than others which appear more fully exploited. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. AWTbh Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) 2169.29 S & P 500 (1200) 275.25 Cumulative Index (12/17/87) 3596.11 No statement or expression of opinion or any other maHer herein contained IS or IS to be deemed to be dlrecllyor Indirectly, an offer or the Solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any secunty referred toor mentIOned The maHer IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our information to be reliable, wetn no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the Stat6ments made herem Any action to be !alten by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and InformatIOn Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporal Ion and liS ollicers or employees, may now have, or may fater take, pOSitionS or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue and such pOSition may be dlfleren\ from any views nowor hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield Harvey Tabell Inc which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVISor, may glveadvlcelo ItS InVestment adVISOry and olhe' customers IndependenUy of any statements made In thiS or m any other Issue Further Information on any security menhoned herein IS aVlIlable on reQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 20, 1987

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 20, 1987

Tabell's Market Letter - February 20, 1987
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 967-2300 February 20, 1987 The Dow started out the week with what has, by now, become the routine, all-time record – – – – –(m-easu.rtlin- ppi)'7i!-taeking -on–54-points -to-cloBetforthe first-'-time,–..above .Ahe-…2200 … level. After some mid-week profit taking,- the advance continued on Thursday. -Breadth -and volume were not all that they could have been. but there was little in the week's action to suggest anything more than a temporary respite in the ongoing pattern of strength. George J. W. Goodman, in one of his priceless pieces on the zany atmosphere of the late 1960s, quoted a money manager who described falling in love as being like coming off the base. It was an apt hyperbole. There is nothing quite so exciting to the technician, expecially if he is addicted to point-and-figure charts, than the prospect of a stock's moving out of a multi-year accumulation pattern. This was, indirectly, the subject of our letter last week when we suggested that one of the few noticeable signs of weakness in the current technical picture was the relatively small number of stocks just now moving off long-term base formations. That this should be the case is hardly surprising given the fact that the major averages have moved up some 180 since 1982. We did, however, cite energy issues as an example of a group of stocks that had, essentially, sat out the four-year bull market and have been just recently, moving out of long-term base formations. Selectively, another group of similar patterns may be found among the secondary and tertiary issues traded in the over-the-counter market. The hypothesis of a shift in leadership to OT C issues has at least some piausability Evidence exists, for example, that the individual investor, the normal buyer of such issues. has remained sceptical regarding the bull market to date and still has available a fair amount of investible cash. It can also be documented that the NASDAQ Industrial Index has been out of phase with the Dow for more than ten years, presenting, therefore, an alternative for those who feel that the blue-chip sector may, after a 4 li2-year advance, be fairly thoroughly exploited. 1–t—–NAS;CDA-';QEIvinddenucsetro'fitha7e1'-p,lansdetx dismalrelative first attained performance of OTC issues a high above 400 more than is 3 easy to come by. 172 years ago, in The June, 1983. At that time the Dow was under 1250. It took the OT C index three years to match that high in June of last year, at which point the DJIA was approaching 1900. Finally, in the past two weeks, the OTC average has posted a third new high, with the Dow, of course, now above the 2200 level. This lack of synchronization between the over-the-counter and listed areas can be traced all the way back to 1976. In the fall of that year, the Dow peaked at 1014 and fell steadily lower to reach 742 in February, 1978. This performance was regarded by most analysts as a major bear market, but it was, interestingly, the first such market in history during which secondary issues, instead of falling more sharply than the Dow, actually advanced. The NASDAQ index was 195.40 when the Dow made its high and was over 109 a month prior to the blue-chip low, in February, 1978. This astounding relative performance was a harbinger of the next 5 years. By April, 1981, the NASDAQ index had reached 275, a 400 improvement from its 1974 lows, vis-a-vis only a 75 rise in the Dow. Through June of 1983, as noted above, the OTC average had extended its advance above 400, behaving, in the process, at least as well as the major market indices. In June of 1983,as suggested above, the dive began in earnest. The Dow continued to a new high of 1287 in late November, by which time the NASDAQ index had barely recovered from an almost 100-point drop. As the Dow posted a relatively mild correction, to 1086 in July, 1984, the OTC indicator plumetted to 250, a low which was to be tested once more, in December, 1984, well after the Dow had started its upward path. The total decline was almost 39. Relative underperformance has continued at least through year-end 1986. At its high back in 1983, the NASDAQ index, at 408, was almost 1/3 as high as the Dow, Which was at 1241. Last year's close was 349, or 18 of the Dow, a level not seen since 1979. Only six weeks -into 1987. there exist only tentative signs of relative improvement, but they are nonetheless there. The OTC-Dow relative strength ratio has moved up some 7 1/2 recently, a rate of improvement demonstrated on only two prior occasions since the 1983 underperformance began. There are, in addition, those breakouts from multi-year bases alluded to above. We are inclined to think, in other words, that secondary issues could well be heard from before the current process is over. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. AWTbh Dow Jones Industrials (1200) 2240.16 S & P 500 (12 00) 284.95 Cumulative Index (2/19/87) 3663.00 NO statement or expresSion 01 opinion or any other mallet herein contained IS, Or IS to be deemed to be, dlrec!!y or indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation 01 an oller to buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The mailer IS presented merely lor the convemence of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 Ihe statements made herem Any action to be taf.en by the subscrrber should be based on hiS own Invesl19a1lon and Information Oela/leld, Harvey Tabell Inc, as a corpora\lon and ItS ollicers or employees may now have or may lalerlake, positions or trades In respect to any securrtles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posilion may be dll1erent Irom any views nowor hereafter expressed m thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, whiCh IS reglslered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give advice to Its /Ilycslmenl ady!sory and o/her customerS mdependenlly oj any slatemenls made In Ihls or In any Olher rssue Further Inlormatlon on any securtly rnenl10ned herein IS available on requesl

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 27, 1987

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 27, 1987

Tabell's Market Letter - February 27, 1987
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS,INC (609) 987-2300 February 27. 1987 — — …. –Readers who-are expectingithis -week,-a-precise forecast,of the.a.oirection .ofthe mBrket–'-Breduly. . -;;;;. warned at this point that they may toss thIS sheet into the nearest waste basket. Rather than providing answers. we intend to raise some questions — in line with the ancient adage about the right questions being necessary to obtain the right answers. We intend. moreover, once again to explore a ' …,.,. .., ,.. '.. ——,-,.-. .'''''……. -,—..'..-..-'-.-.-being the question which, current location START DATE DJIA JUN 1896 JAN 1901 NOV 1903 NOV 1907 OCT 1911 MAR 1915 DEC 1917 AUO 1921 JUl 1923 NOO 1929 JUl 1932 SEe 19J APR 1938 APR 192 NOO 1946 JUN 199 SEP 1953 DEC 1957 JUN 1962 OCT 1966 AY 1970 DEC 197 AR 1978 30.22 8. 91 32.17 12.79 55.52 60.83 74.38 67.11 86.91 238.95 54.26 92.63 111.28 95.35 169.89 167.2 264.04 35.69 561.28 807.07 700.H 616.24 757.36 regUlar readers know, has ofter been raised in this space, that of the Dow in terms of the familiar four-year-cycle pattern. HIOH DATE DJIA x LOW HIGH lOW DATE TOTAL DJIA OS OS '00 AODS, X AD, X OF OF DEC -PR-E-V—LO-W- PREV HIGH 'PR 1899 54.90 JAN 1901 18.94 62 -II JU' 1901 57.10 NOV 1903 32.47 5 15 -OJ JAN 1906 73.76 NOV 1907 12.79 54 NOO 1909 70.3 OCT 1911 55.52 24 -21 DEC 1912 64.37 MAR 1915 60.83 41 -6 NOV 1916 105.97 DEC 1917 7. 38 JJ 20 61 74 -30 OCT 1919 118.92 AUG 1921 67.t 1 H 22 so 60 -H 1923 102.75 JUL 1923 86.91 2J OJ 53 -15 SEe 1929 343.45 NOV 1929 238.95 76 74 ,OS -30 APR FE, 1930 1931 279.23 103.46 JUL 1932 SEe 1934 54.26 92.63 32 26 5 1937 186.11 AFR 1938 111.28 4J 30 17 -81 -10 10. -0 NOV 1938 119.82 1912 95.35 7 15 -36 JUN 1946 205.62 '00 1946 169.89 55 50 116 -17 JUN 1918 189.46 JUN 199 167.12 31 61 12 JAN 1913 289.77 SEe 1953 264.0 51 B4 73 JUL 1957 508.52 OEC 1957 435.69 51 93 DEC 1961 731.11 JUN 1962 561.28 6B -2J JAN 1966 983.51 OCT 1966 807.07 43 BJ -IB DEC 1968 943.75 AY 1970 700.14 43 60 17 -26 JAN 1973 999.02 DEC 1971 616.21 55 58 43 -3' 5EP 1976 990.t 9 1978 757.36 J9 21 61 APR 1981 997.75 JUl 1982 808.60 37 71 -19 IJ2 13. II. 90 13. 2J S6 17' 15' 165 B7 BB 123 .6 95 92 S6 m 81 37 lB. eo '37 92 153 I7S 135 .06 10. question AVERAGE – JUNE 1896-KAR 1978 15 29 61 72 -27 127 125 AVERAGE – NOVEKBER 1946-KARCH 1978 17 35 72 55 -20 131 l25 AVERAGE – OCTOBER 1966-KARCH 1978 46 26 57 10 -29 106 100 11II The tabulation above is a familiar one and shooJ!r ownin.terpretation9Utle-,-fouryearcycle since the DJIA was first computed in 1896. The cycle is measured from low to low, and for each successive wave the start, the high, and the low are given. using month-end closes. The remaining columns are self-explanatory and show the length of each cycle in months and the percentage amplitude of the advancing and declining phases. The first obvious comment is that the table has not been added to since its current form became obvious in late 198'2. It is obvious that a new upward cycle began in the summer of that year so that the only thing for certain we know about the next line is that its starting point will be July, 1982 with the DJIA at 808.60. The simpliest assumption. of course, is that that cycle which began in 1982 continues today. This interpretation. unfortunately, has by now become so implausable that it probably should be discarded as a possibility. It would stretch the advancing phase so far to 178 and make a high at 224 of the previous (1981) high. It would. in addition. stretch the cycle's length to fifty-four months without a declining phase even having begun. Furthermore, our readers are aware of our attitude that 1987's strength so far presages further strength. Thus such a phase is unlikely at any time in the immediate future. A way out of the dilemma is to call the downswing between November, 1983 and July. 1984 the termination of the last cycle. This cycle would then have a length of 24 months, of which 16, or 67. would have been advancing ones. The advance would measure to 58 and the declining phase to 13. The advancing phase of the next cycle. running from July 1984 to date would now be 31 months long. involving a 101 advance. The twenty-four month length would make the tenative 1982-84 cycle one of the shortest on record. That short cycle would. unfortunately. be comparable to the August, 1921-July, 1923 experience which. it will be noted, was followed by the longest cycle in the table which ran from July. 1923 through November. 1929. One could perform a further cycle breakdown by hypothesizing that the trading range of the last nine months of 1986 constituted a full-scale correction. This would yield a cycle of normal length. with the present upswing just in its infancy. We are. however, close enough to last years action to recall it vividly. and identIfying it as a major correction stretches credibility. One could perform the same exercise by calling the thirteen months from February, 1926 to March, 1927. which have much the same configuration as last year. a major correction. This we have chosen not to do. We have. in other words. achieved a paradoxical situation in which further strength is the likely expectation, but an excess of such strength is likely to increase the market's cyclical vulnerability. We expect, therefore, to be raising the question of the cycle environment again in future issues. AWTmjs Dow Jones Industrials (1200) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (2/26/87) 2228.06 2R4.31 3655.94 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TAB ELL INC. NO statement or expression ot opinion or any other matter herein contained IS or IS to be deemed to be directly or Inchrectly an offer or the solrcltaUoll of an offer to buy or sell any secuflty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be refrable, wern no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor ot the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own rnvestlgatlon and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabeff tnc, as a corporahon and ItS officers or employees. may now have or may later take, pOSitrons or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any fulure Issue, and such pOSition may be olfferent from any views now 01 hereafter e…pressed III thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey Tabeff Inc, which IS registered With the SECas an Investment advlsol, may give adVice tOI\S Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Inlormatlon on any security mentioned herein Is available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 06, 1987

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 06, 1987

Tabell's Market Letter - March 06, 1987
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 March 6. 1987 — – A …t-heim8jor -m8rket-averagescontinu-e-toscore'newhighs .. ,wer.e,choasing., once gl!into – focus on' afewof- the less-than-positive aspectsof- the current stock market -scene. We do this, not to suggest pessimism. but rather as a exercise in the sort of discipline that one should practice during an obvious bull market. In such an environment. there is little point in looking at those momentum indicators which simply underscore the probability of continued strength over the intermediate term. lnstead, eVen at this early stage, it is preferable to concentrate on those areas which. if they do not improve. might indicate relatively serious deterioration. Basically, despite the new highs in conventional daily and weekly breadth indices. there exist a few indicators which suggest that the current rise is not quite as broad as it should be. One such indicator is extracted from the data on new highs and new lows. The Dow, 8S of yesterday's close, was some 375 points, or 20 percent, above the level at which it had finished 1986. It was almost 300 points above the best level posted at any time during last year. Yet. for all of the strength, the best the market has been able to do in terms of individual stocks reaching new highs was 258 such highs on Feburary 18. This is. to say the least. a rather pitiful showing. , The differential between new highs and new lows generally rises sharply during the early stage of any bull market. Such was certainly the case in late 1982. when one day saw more than 600 new highs posted and when. in October. the ten-day moving average of the high-low differential moved to over 300. Similar strength was shown following the July. 1984 low with the ten-day differential moving above the 200 level in January-February. 1985. The peak for this series was scored early last year, wlth a ten-day average differential of 310. During last year's trading range, the high-low figures deteriorated and even, on a few occassions, reached negative territory. The ten-day figure moved up, of course, in early 1987, but the best level it has been able to reach this year was a peak of 152 in early January. and clIltasnotDnbe1o-PostJDW hignhsgince'7- We noted above that conventional breadth indicators have confirmed the market's current rise. There is, however, one such indicator that has failed to do so. That is breadth based on advance-decline figures for common stocks only. One has to approach this particular data set with some caution. Theoretically, the common-stock figures should provide the most accurate breadth indication. They have, however, not been available long enough to confirm this theory by observation. Indeed. based on the limited information available, the common-stock breadth index has not behaved all that differently from the all-inclusive one. In the current case, however. common-stock breadth has failed to confirm the high posted back in 1983 and. indeed. remains below its peak of early 1986. On this basis. at least, the present breadth divergence is indeed massive. Suspicion that market leadership is disturbingly narrow is confirmed by a look at the action of NYSE common stocks on an individual basis. We studied the action of 1277 such issues as of Wedensdayts close. and the results are of some interest. For example despite the Dow's strength. only 642. or slightly more than one-half of the issues studied. posted new highs during 1987. 635 Issues, in other words. at their best prices of 1987, remain below peaks scored in 1986. Obviously a fair number of issues which posted their highs last year are, at recent prices, very close to exceeding that high. This. however, is not generally true. Issues which posted their peak in 1986 have. on average. recovered 45 of the loss scored following that peak. Since there has long existed a technical rule of thumb stating that a recovery of one third to one half of any loss is normal in an ongoing downtrend, the implications of the average recovery are somewhat less than postive. It must be admitted, of course. that all of the negative figures above could indeed Change with further market strength. New highs could post the kind of rise shown in 1983 and 1986, and it would not take much further strength for common-stock breadth to attnew high ground. Also, many of the- issues that recovered only'modestly from last year's peaks currently possess- continuation bases suggesting that those peaks could be exceeded at some time in the very near future. Nonetheless. the indicators noted above should be watched closely to determine whether or not improvement takes place. If better indications do not emerge and some of the many currently-postive indicators begin to deteriorate, a weaker market could emerge as a distinct possiblit y. AWTbh Dow Jones Industrials 0200) S & P 500 (12 00) Cumulative Index (3/5/87) 2278.26 289.30 3709.94 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. No statement or expreSSIOn ot oplmon or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be directly or Indirectly, an ofter or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any secuflly reterted 1001 mentioned lhe matter IS presented merely tor the convenience of the sUbscliber While we belJeve the sources 01 our information to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herelf\ Any achon to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and information Delaftetd, Harvey, labeU Inc, as a corporahon and lIs ofhcers or employees, may now have or may later take, POSitions or trades In respeclto any seCUrities menlloned In thiS or any future Issue, and such POSition may be dlf!erent Irom any views now or herealler epressed In this or any other Issue Delafield Harvey, label! Inc which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give advice to ItS Inyestment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statemenls made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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