Viewing Year: 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 15, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 15, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - March 15, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 .- ….. …– March15,.-.1985- – Tile questlOn which we would like to throw before the house today 'is, Should we be becoming bearish1! The answer IS. quite unequivDcably. is no — but we should probably be thInking about it. Thinking about it, let us stress. does not involve taking any portfolio action which would in- hibit future participatlOn in a continued bull-morlet environment. It is, rather, the orientation of one's Intellectual processes to take cognizance of just where we might be. at this moment, in terms of a major stock-markct cycle. To begin with, let us recapitulnte the recent short-term developments which we have been treating, at some length. in the past few Issues of this letter. As we noted last week, the market 1s most recent upward-adjustment phase — bull-market leg if you will — apparently ran out of steam around the end of January, when the major averages hit the first of three approximately equivalent hIghs. Since that time, there has been building a potential top, a formatIon which we have shown on charts and which. we have noted, indicates a downside obJective of approximately 1225-1200. This week the Dow broke decisevely out of that top, suggesting that attainment of those objectives must be conSIdered a stron g possibility. Now as far as downside risk is concerned, what is summarized in the above paragraph is liter- ally all that now seems to exist, Furthermore, the low 1200's on the Dow, the upper part of the trading range from which the rally started, constitutes support of truly massive proportions. We are, in other words. forecasting a downswing highly unlikely to turn out to be anything more than a short-term correction. and we are furthermore suggesting that the bottom of that correction should provide an excellent buying opportunity from a trading point of view, It is, however. necessary to pursue this scenario further. Let us assume for a moment that it does indeed mater18lize as outlined above. Carrying the process to its completion will reqUIre time, and the subsequent process of building a base formation will require further time. Time, un- fortunately, IS what we are running out of. -We -will- not –burden -our–readers with further arcane – discussions–about-major—-cycle-lengths——-It–'- is necessary only to note, once again, that the current bull market IS presently 31 months old. This places it in the begInning of the timeframe within which, historically, it could come to an end. That time frame is lengthy, Indeed, it extends into 1985 and, at ItS maximum length, into early 1986. The party is still gomg strong, and the participants appear only slightly bleary-eyed. None- theless. at some point the band will play Good Night Sweetheart, and the bar will close. Despite the bull's current maturity, it is necessary to note a still robust internal market condi- tion. The rally from early December to late January demonstrated, as we noted last week, a surprising amount of vitality, and it furthermore brought us back to a condition, as far as individual stock trend analysis is concerned where the vast majority of issues once again find themselves in confirmed major or Intermediate up trends . It also, on a weekly basis .. erased any previous breadth divergence which might have existed and made the daiI y breadth divergence, at worst, ambig-uous. This in itself buys time for a new top of major proportions to form. A brand new breadth diver- gence would probably have to develop. This is not going to take place overnight. Yet, on the other hand, the rally stalled at around 1300 on the Dow, a fIgure which is not all that different from where that average was 21 months ago. This in itself suggests some degree of loss of upside momentum. Returning to the immediate picture. it is our expectation. as noted above, that the market will complete a short-term correction, and that a rally will then ensue. It will be important to gauge the strength and character of that rally. That character could vary WIdely. It could carry the Dow decis, vely back through 1300 accompanied by equivalent strength in breadth indicators, Individ ual stocks which have short term tops comparable to those in the average could also move ahead to new highs in large numbers. All of thIS would suggest the prolongation of the bull market, the festivities possibly extending through the remainder of 1985, at least. A tepid rally unaccompanied by decent breadth, however, would, at this stage,.automaticallY,be suspeet. The mal'ket h reached that point, in other words, where we should be demanding of it some proof of its continued vigor. ANTHONY IV. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. AWT rs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m, ) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (3/14/85 1261. 48 177.74 2353.46 No statement or expression of opInion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be directly or Ifldlrectly, an offer or the solicitation of an offer 10 buyor sell any securrty ret erred toor mentioned The maller IS presented merely tOf the convenience of the subSCriber White we believe the soufcesof our information to be rellabte we m no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements made herem Any action to be taken by the subscnber should be based on his own mvesttgallon and mformatlon Delafield, Harvey Tabell Inc, as a corporation and Its oltlcers or employees may now have or may later take, posilions or trades in respect to any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future ISSue, and such pOStlton may be d,ilerent from any VieWS now or heleafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield Harvey TaOOI1 Inc, which Is registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, maY.Qlvc advICe to Its Inveslment adVISOry and other customers mdependentlv 01 any statements made m thiS or in any other Issue Further information on any security menlloned herem is available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 22, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 22, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - March 22, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER — 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 March 22, 1985 Recent comments in this space have referred to the maturity of the current bull market, –The date of thnt- bull-market's-birth -is-of course-firmly–fixed -in market history .It is August – 12, 1982. Its minimum lIfespan is also a matter of record. The DJIA touched a closmg high on March 1, with the corresponding high for the S & P 500 taking place a couple of weeks earlier on February 13. In terms of the Dow, then, the current upswing is 31 months old. It has not been our intentIon. in pointing out that the advance has entered mto middle age to suggest its imminent demise. Indeed, inspectIOn of indiVlduai stock patterns at the moment reveals almost nothing in the way of the sort of advanced-stage top formations which one would expect toward the tail end of a major market advance about to turn up its toes. The potential beginnlngs of such formations indeed exist in a few cases, but even these, at the moment, constitute an infinitesimal minority and could be destroyed by any display of further strength. One of the characteristics of advanced mIddle age, however, is a tendency to settle into a rather comfortable routine, and this the bull market seems to have done. This has some implications, It seems to us, as far as its continued vitality is concerned. One of the exciting things about the early stages of any given bull market is the emergence of new and dynamIc leadershIp. This IS a qualIty which seems to be conspicuously lacking at the moment, and that lack makes it difficult to formulate a precise scenario for the remainder of 1985, or, more importantly, beyond that as we look ahead toward the shape of the next major market cycle. The above statement can be clarified by looking at the dynamics of individual stock groups. Leaders in any gIVen bull market tend to demonstrate a number of characteristics. First of all, quite obviously, they tend to out-perform the averages during the advance's entire lIfespan. Secondly, they tend to be relatively invulnerable to corrections which take place within the framework of the major upswing. There was a special opportunity to demonstrate this characteristic in the current cycle, since an unusually deep intermediate-term correction interrupted-the adance–betweenFall ,J 983 and Summer,–1984. Thir.dly,–it isoftenthecase -I that leading stocks begin to outperform the market on the previous cycle, often demonstrating resistence to the bear market preceding the upswing. There exist a number of areas which have demonstrated all of these characteristics in the course of the current rise. In terms of industry groups, a by-no-means-all-inclusive list would include Aerospace, Automobiles, Soft Drinks. Containers, Foods, Life Insurance J Newspapers, Restaurants, Tobaccos J Electric Utilities, and Regional Banks. Most stocks in these groups have conformed to the above criteria in an almost textbook fashion. Their components, at least until recently, were conspicuous by their frequency on the new-high list, and, by and large, they corrected only mildly or indeed continued to make upside progress in the trying period of late 1983 and early 1984. Likewise, a characteristic of many of the stocks in this group has been that theIr advance can be dated, not from August, 1982, but from the early part of 1980. This date, interestingly enough, was midway through the previous bull-market cycle which ran from February, 1978 to April, 1981. The groups mentioned above participated fully in the latter part of that cycle, and in additIOn remaIned largely resistent to the 1981- 1982 bear market. On the plus side, as far as many of these issues are concerned, is the fact that they do not appear to be fundamentally exploited. Often one of the attributes of bull-market leadership is that a maJor portion of that leadershipfs rise can be attributed to an advance in earnings multIples and only a mmor portIOn to earnings progress itself, the classic example being the case of the nifty-fIfty growth stocks in 1970-1973. Although the groups mentioned above tend to show somewhat higher p Ie's today than they did five years ago when their leadership phase commenced, the multiples do not seem to be all that different. To this extent the rise has been soundly based. Our own attitude toward all of this, of course. has been simply to recommend the adap– lion of a portfolIo posture weighted heavily in favor of the leading groups mentioned above and to relax and enjoy it. Such continues to be our recommendation. It would however. at least. be interesting and instructive for the market student to see new faces coming to the fore. The emergence of such new leadership would suggest a rather healthy prolongation of the current bull market and would also afford the technician some clue as to future long-term supra-cycle investment opportunities. That leadership. to date, at least,lll.5 refused to emerge. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1270.54 . S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 179.59 …. , Cumulative Index (3/21/85) 2355.50 '-. , ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No slateffi!nl or expreSSion 01 Opinion or any other matter herein contalnOOIS or IS to be deemed to be directly Of Indirectly an ofter or the sollcltallon of an oller to buy or sell any security referred toor mentioned The mailer is presented mel'()tyfor the convenience of the subSCriber While we beheve the sources 01 our Information to be reliable wem no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereol nor of the statements made herem Any action to be tal-en by the subsCriber should be based on hiS own investigation andlnlormatlon Detafield, Harvey, Tabe\1 tnc, as a corporation and ItS ollicers 01 employees, may now have Or may later take positIons or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future ISSue, and such posItion may be dlfferentlrom any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or nny other Issue Detafleld Harvey Tabell Inc, which is registered With the SEC as an Investment adVISor, may give advice to itS Inestmenl adlsory and other customers IndrlPenderllly 01 any staemerlts made m thiS or In any other Issue Further mlormaiion on any security mentioned herein IS Mailable on reQuGsl

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 29, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 29, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - March 29, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 March 29, 1985 .. By deflnitioo.–buli-market conditeri;twlbers of stocks are making new highs or remain close to recently-posted highs. We studied, this week, a sample of 1,311 New York Stock Exchange securItIes to ascertain to what extent these conditions exist today. The table at rIght shows the amounts by which Pc t . Down No. of Stocks I. of To tal these 1311 issues were, at their Wednesday close, off ——— ————- ———- from their bull-market highs. As it indicates, more Ol.-IO/. 486 37.07 than a third of all issues under study are within 10 10l.-20/. 297 22.65 of their highs for the bull market, and almost 60 are within 20' of those highs. Based on this, prospects for the bull market's continuance appear good since it would take very little strength for these issues to move On to new high territory. 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 164 128 103 47 45 20 12.51 9.7F, 7.86 3.59 3.43 I. 98 Month High Ma de Number of Stocks Cumulatlve ————— May 1983 —————- 126 Juo 1983 165 126 291 80-99 15 I. 14 The table at left shows the number of stocks Jul 1083 AU9 1983 5ep 1983 Oc t 1983 93 34 56 51 l384 which posted their bull-market highs to date in each month since May, 1983. It is the top and bottom por525 tions of the table that are interesting. 537, or 41, of No. 1983 Oec 1983 Jan 1984 29 23 78 554 the issues have posted new bull-market highs in the i(( past three months. It is these issues that are at the Fe 1984 Mac 19R4 Ap r 1984 May 1984 JU-n 1gRit 6 661 moment carryingfl the market. On the other hand, 655 12 673 issues, just about half of the total, posted their highs 16 157 gi prior to February, 1984 and have falled to achieve new '''''''7n-peaks sinceIt-is6urbelie-r-that1nefUture oftn'e—-I Jul 1984 Aug 1984 Sep 1984 0 11 12 711 bull market hinges upon the recovery prospects for 773242 these I. ssues. Oc t 19R4 Nov 1984 Oec 1984 12 14 14 746 760 774 STOCKS MAKING HIGHS BEFORE JANUARY 19A4 Joe 1985 Fe b 1985 Mac 1985 59 220 258 833 1053 1311 No. of Average t of Avg Down Oate of low Stocks Loss Regained From Hlgh Feb 1984 22 51 .81 20.14 The table at right focuses only on those stocks making highs prior to January, 1984, and, for these issues, shows the month of their subse- Mac 1984 Apr 19114 May 10 8d Juo 1984 20 40 51 38 42.68 49.27 49.92 47. 17 25.70 23.40 20.28 24.77 quent low. Also shown in the table are the percentage of their loss to that low regained as Jul 1984 AU9 1984 5p p 19A4 177 24 13 39.85 34.23 34.30 29.93 30.40 34.79 of this week and the amount J at this week's Dc t 1984 20 37 .91 30.30 prices, by which they are down from their highs. Nov 19A4 Oec 1984 24 94 19.52 19.58 49.51 45.85 A fair number of those stocks may be said Jao 19R5 Feb 19B5 62 7 22.08 13.81 43.45 55.76 to be lost to the bull market, at least for the 1985 42 5.93 54.87 time being. These are the 229 stocks that continud to post new lows in November and subsequently, and now find themselves down, on the average, 50 from their cycle highs. On the other hand, the bulk of these issues, 348 stocks, had made correction lows by July of last year. These issues, on the whole, find themselves having regained close to half of the total amount lost from their bull-market highs to their subsequent bottoms, and are, at recent prices, down on average only a bit more than 20 from their highs. Our own observatlon is that many of these stocks have completed substantial bases which suggest that new peaks could be attained. They could thus provide new fuel for the continuance of the bull market. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1261,70 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 179.70 Cumulative Index (3/28/85) 2363.92 No statement or (lJ(preSSlon 01 oplOlon or any other matter herein contalOed Is, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirect lv, an oHer or the sollcltatlon 01 an oller 10 buy or sen any secunty referred loor mentioned The mattellS presented merely lor the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of ourmformallon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereol nor of the statements made herein Any action to be \alo-en by the subsCriber should be based on hIS own mvestlgatlon and mformahon Oelalleld, Harvey, label! Inc, as a corporation and Its officers Or employees may now have or may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSItion may be dilierent Irom any viewS noy' or heleafter expressed m thiS or any olher Issue Delafield Harvey, laben Inc whiCh IS registered with the SECas an Investment adVisor, mayglVe adVice to 11S lOvestment advisory and other customers lOdependenUy of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any security mentioned herein Is 8vallableon request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 04, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 04, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - April 04, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 April 4, 1985 After 30 years of observing the stock market, it is difficult to find market behavior that does – – not produce-at71east some sense—of ded-vu;-and -the presenr case IS no exception-.-A -marKet being led – on the upside by stable. defensive groups such as Foods, Tobaccos, and Utilities is, of course, according to modern portfolIo theory. not supposed to happen. since excess reward is, theoretically, obtaInable only by assuming excess risk. Such leadership has emerged over the past four years, however. and, as veteran observers are aware. the phenomenon is not new, having similarly occurred back in the dark ages of the late 1950's. The followmg table shows the approximate price moves, low to high, of four typical stocks and the S & P 500 for the periods 1957-1961 and 1980-1985. Adjustments are made to reflect 1961 and 1985 capitalizations in the respective cases. Coca Cola FPL Group General Foods Reynolds Ind. S & P 500 1957 Low 32 22 20 13 38.98 1961 High 108 88 108 89 72.64 Change 238 300 440 584 86 1980 Low 29 10 24 27 98.22 1985 High 70 24 62 87 183.35 Change 141 140 158 222 87 Interestingly enough. the prIce moves for the stocks in question durIng the current period pale in comparison with those of the earlier one. For the two time periods, the change in the S & P 500 was approximately the same. However, in 1957-1961 the moves of the individual stocks — and they were truly representative of their groups at the time — were almost twice as great as those which have been seen to date. The reason, perhaps. is that the earlier rise featured increasing investor confidence In the stocks in question, somethmg which has been largely absent to date. The table below shows the earnings per share for the same stocks at the beginning and at the end of each of the two periods. From these earnings. p Ie ratios, at the low and at the hlgh prices for the move. are calculated. Finally, each price learnin gs- ratio is shown relative -to that-'-of–'-the-S & – p 500 rat the…time-;–a-statistic–8rrivedat-by-di— – viding the individual stock p Ie ratio by the S & P p Ie ratio. Coca Cola FPL Group General Foods Reynolds Ind. S & P 500 1957 EPS. PE Rei PE EPS 2.40 13.3 1.15 3-00 1. 52 14.5 1. 25 2.08 1. 90 10.5 .91 2.85 1. 55 8.4 .72 2.85 3.37 11. 6 3.19 1961 PE Rei PE 36-0 1. 59 42.3 1. 86 37.9 1. 67 31. 2 1. 37 22.7 EPS 3.42 1. 97 4.47 6.23 4.82 1980 PE 8-5 5.1 5.4 4.3 6.6 Rei PE 1. 29 .77 .82 .65 1985-Estimated EPS PE Rei PE 5.55 i2-6 1. 24 2.80 8.6 .84 7.35 8.4 .82 8.50 10.2 1. 00 18.00 10.2 As can be seen, 1957-1961 was a period of markup for stocks in genera!, the pie ratw for the 500 almost doubling. By contrast, in the current case, it has risen only a bit more than 50 and, interestingly. is lower than where it startea in 1957. The multiples for the four stocks also increased between 1980 and 1985 but, by and large, remam modest. The key statistIc is that, for three of the four stocks at least, the relative p Ie ratios have remained approximately the same for the past four years. By contrast, during the 1957-1961 period, the relative multiples for all four of the stocks increased substantially. They did this, furthermore, at a time when the S & P multIple itself was doubling. Thus earnings gains averagIng some 50 over four years produced price appreciation averaging 390. In the current case, earnings rises of about the same magnItude have produced only half as much appreciation. The aftermath of the sort of price exploitation which took place in 1957-1961 should also be noted. Three of the four issues (Coca Cola is the exception) did not agam exceed their 1961 highs until the 1980's. As we read today's fmancial commentary, we are already beginning to see repetitive fundamental rationalization for the moves in defensive issues which have taken place to date. These rationalizations, and they are perfectly valId, include prospects for deflation and, in the case of UtilItles. lower capitalinvestment requirements. It will be Interesting to see whether this reasoning continues to attract Investor notice. possibly resulting in the sort of price markup which took place two-plus decades ago. AWT;rs ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (400 p.m.) 1259.05 S & P Composite (4'00 p.m.) 178.42 Cumulative Index (4/3185) 2366.46 No stalOmcnt or eXpresslorl of opinion or any olher matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be directly or Indirectly an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter 15 presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our information to be reliable, we m no way represent or -guaranteo the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any acllon to be tah.en by the subSCriber should be based on his own inVestigation and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and Its ofllcers or employees, may now have or may laler lake poSitions or hades In respect to any secuntres mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSItion may be dllferent from any views now or hereafter epressed In thiS or any 01 her Issue Delafield Harvey Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may glyeadYlce to Its Investment adVIsory and other cuStomers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security men\!oned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 12, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 12, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - April 12, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 924-9660 April 12, 1985 The rcen! sht-term position of the stoc! market r.emains uncha!lged. We have, in the past. CUr-rent cycles ————-perioaically -attempted .. t9 r1easurethe-positIonor-the stOckriiarketagmnsfpast market' in order to maintmn 3 proper long-term perspective. ThIS type of examination, we feel, continues to be a useful exercise. The chart below shows the recent cycle wIth the maJor component swings in the S & P 500 from August, 1982 to date. Using a 10 filter, the high and low points are drawn to a unIform horizontal scale. The other data on the chart attempts to compare the present cycle to the eIght most recently completed cycle perlods WhICh we have identified from June, 1946 through August. 1982 and are lIsted below. The horIzontal lines drawn through the upper part of the chart show the length. in tradmg days. in each of these previous eight cycles. crCLE PERIOD 172 65 OCT 1983 FEB 19B5 55 c. \. JUL 19811 11I7 82 OCT JUN In February, 1984, this letter suggested with hindsight, after an advance of 68.57 in the S &I P 500 from August 12, 1982 to October 10, 1983, that a new bull-market cycle did, in fact. begin. More importantly, however. because of the short length of time from August, 1982 to February, 198ij cycle analysts were able to correctly describe the subsequent decline of 14.38 in the S &; P 500 which carrIed into July as an intermediate-term correction in an ongoing bull market. None of the above past cycle declines from cycle peak to cycle low has been as small as 14.38. Again, in October, 1984. we updated the position of the current cycle which was then two years old. At that time it became necessary for the market to accommodate the cycle theorist by posting a new high. Four months passed but. of course, the market, as we know,dld just that, rISIng to a high on February 13, 1985 to 183.55. an overall increase from the August, 1982 low- of 79.02. The bull-market requirements of the cycle have now been fulfilled, both in length of time and magnitude. The number of trading days of the current cycle is now 674 days old which represents 64 of the average length of the eight previous cycles (1053 days) and the average advance for the eIght cycles is approximately 80. This brings us to the present. Cycles are measured from low point to low pomt and the key question facing us now IS whether or not the high of February 13, 1985 constitutes the peak for the current cycle. Two possible scenarios exist at this stage as this current cycle matures. First. a correction to a cycle low may, in fact. have already started from the February 13 high, or second. the market could still easily rally to a new high and then correct itself from that level. In both cases. from a cycle point-of-view, it must be pointed out a correction of some magnitude will be necessary to complete the current cycle — the average correction for the past eIght cycles from cycle peak to cycle low has averaged 27.17— and time is running out. RJS rs Dow-Jones IndustrIals (1200 p.m.) 1263.80 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 180.21 Cumulative Index (4/11/85) 2381.12 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. NO statement or eJfpreSSlon 01 opinion or any other matter herein contained Is, or IS to be deemed to be directly or Indirectly, an otter or the soliCitation of an oHer to buyor sell any secunly referred toor mentioned The matter IS presented meralylor the conlfenience of the subscriber While we believelhe sources 01 our Informallon 10 be reliable we In no way represent or guaranlee the accuracy thereof nor at the stalements made herOin Any action 10 be la;-en by the subscriber should be based on his own investigation and mformatlon Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, as a corporaflon and Its officers or employees may now have, or may later take, POSitions or trades In resPect to any securihes mentioned m thiS or any future Issue, and such POSition may be dillerent from any views now or helcaftcr expressed In thiS or any olher Issue Delafield Harvev, labell Inc which IS registered with Ihe SECas an Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 liS Investment adVisory and other customers Independently of any slatemfnts made m thiS or In any olher Issue Further Information on any securltv menlloned herem Is available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 19, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 19, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - April 19, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 April 19, 1985 – – .-. -The stock market -has.. -over-thepast. seven-weeks ,-entered -into -another-one-of those – periods of lassitude which seem to be characteristic of the latter stages of the 1982-198 bull market. Almost invariably, however, even in dull markets, there exist localized areas where the action is, That action, currently, is in the area of takeovers, To the jaded market observer, the current takeover boom is hardly an unusual phenomenon. Something is needed to fill the pages of the financial press each day, and the present plethora of hostile ac quisition bids obviously provides its share of newsworthy Items. The current focus on takeover candidates, actual and putative, may be likened to the frenzy in technology stocks a couple of years back or any number of other mini-booms in specialized areas whiCh, in the past, have become the focus of investor interest and then faded from the scene, Again, like its predecessors, the takeover explosion has engendered intense debate, Characteristically, among the participants in this debate are those whose favorite phase is tch tch, This sort of commentary is not exclusively confined to the managements of those companies which have become the object of unfriendly bids. Indeed, there are aspects to the takeover boom which are, at the very least, aesthetically unattractive and which, at worst, raise serious questions as to the structure of financial markets, However, before we rush to condemn those entrepreneurs who are busy rocking so many boats, it is wise to have a framework within which to view the takeover phenomenon. Let us try, for instance, the framework of ecology. Financial markets, can be viewed, after all, as ecosystems, with multitudes of participants in a continuing dynamic relationship with each other. One similar ecosystem, with which we have some familiarity, is that of the plains of Southern Africa. There are, on thOle plains, to the delight of the observer, large numbers of elephants. The elephant, being a very large beast, eats a great deal and, in the course of the natural pro- cess of digestion, rroduces a gI'eat deal.of waste. Indeed, as anyone who has been in Africa is aware, the results of this process reach proportions that may be' described-aEtruly-aweso'me -. There exists also, in the bush, a tiny insect called the dung beetle, This creature, quite simply, feeds upon the results of the elephant's digestive process, in the process refining it into small, manageable amounts spread over wide areas where it can serve to fertilize the Imh grass. This grass, in turn, serves as the principal food supply for the myriad of other animals that occupy the plain, The beetle, therefore, however unattractive a creature he may be, performs a function which benefits the entire system. The takeover operator, it seems to us, performs a not dissimilar function in the financial marketplace, i.e., he contributes to the efficient pricing of capital assets which, to the investor ppulation as a whole, constitute a necessity much as grass is a necessity for plains inhabitants, Viewed in this light, the current emergence of takeovers is not unlike the recent proliferation of a number of market mechanisms, unknown a short decade ago, whose existence can be justified on the basis of their promotion of market efficiency. One thinks, for example ,of the emergence of options, futures contracts, and other relatively arcane and indirect means of trans- ferring the risk inherent in the very existence of capital assets. Indeed, the stock market itself can be viewed as just such a mechanism, The only point at which the financial industry contributes directly to a capitalist economy is in the provision of new capital for industry. However, it would be extremely difficult to provide such capital under the present structure without the existence of an efficient market for already-existing securities, much as the existence of a flourishing used-car market is necessary for the sale of new automobiles. All of the above is not to say that we should be unaware of some of the problems re- sulting from takeover proliferation, Inequitable treatment of different classes of shareholders is certainly, we think, a proper subject for legislation. The methods by which takeovers are financed and their implications for the entire banking and financial system also raise serious questions, Before we rush out to pass laws prohibiting this or that aspect of unfriendly takeover bids J however J it is appropriate, it seems to us, to view these bids within the context of the entire financial ecosystem. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (4/18/85) 1264.24 180.52 2392.80 No statement or epresslon of opinIOn or any other matter herein contained IS or IS to be deemed 10 be directly or mdlrectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any secunty relerred toor mentioned The malter IS presented merely lor Ihe convenience of the subscriber While 'oe believe the sources of our information to be reliable, we In noway represent orguarantae the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any action 10 be taken by Ihe subSCriber should be based on hiS own Invesllgallon and Informal Ion Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, as a corporation and Its oHlcers or employees may now have or may tater take positions or trades In respeclto any secuntles menltoned In thiS or any luture Issue, and such position may be different tram any views now or heleafter expressed m thiS or any other Issue Detafletd Harvey Tabe!! Inc which IS registered With the SECas an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment advisory and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or m any other Issue Further mfonnatlon on any security mentioned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 26, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 26, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - April 26, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 April 26, 1985 For about the umpteenth tIme in the past few years, we find ourselves compelled to write a letter about a stock-mfll'kettrnding range. r-he current-cxamplc of- such -a range was– as of'We-dnes'da' datmg28 tradmg days old and thus had conflned the market averages for six weeks -back to March 15. On that day the Dow closed at 1247.02 and the S & P 500 at 176.53, in both cases the lowest figure at- tained between then and now. In terms of the Dow. the market recovered to 1271. 09 on March 19, dip- ped again to 1259.72 on March 26, posted a slightly better peak at 1272.75 on April 1 and dropped to 1252.98 on April 18. Most recently. the Dow recovered to 1278.71 on Tuesday. In Thursday and early Friday tradIng. the major Indices fInally moved tentatively out of the sIx-week tradlng area, the Dow reaching 1284.78 at Thursday's close and the S & P, along with the NYSE Composite, actually attroning newall-tIme highs. Until the breakout, however, the range, low to high, had been 2.54 for the Dow and 3.48 for the 500. In a word, boring. We should by now, however, be accustomed to this sort of boredom. The most recent sIdeways market, descnbed above, was preceded by another similar penod lasting 27 trading days between Janu- ary 29 and March 7. In this partIcular instance the Dow was controned in a range bounded by its 811- time hIgh of 1299.36 on March 1 and the February 22 low of 1275.84, a range 1. 84 in extent. This in turn followed a lateral range of much longer duratIon, covering 71 trading days betwen October 9, 1984 and January 18. For this three-month-plus period, the outer trading limIts were 1163.21 and 1244.15, an only slightly broader 6.96 bracket. The two periods of transition between these three ranges were relatively short. The Dow moved from its 1163-1244, October-January range to the January-March range of 1276-1299 in just six trading days. The downward swmg from that range to the current one occupied all of five days. Thus the Dow spent 11 out of the last 137 tradIng days to Wednesday actually doing something and the rest of the time subjecting us to protracted dullness. Whenever a trading impaSge such as the current one exists it becomes incumbent on the technician to hazard a guess as to the direction, up or down, 1n which it wlll fmally be resolved. A great many practitioners had been professIng, with a good deal of certitude, to know precisely which direction the ultImate breakout would take, with the bulls and bears, interestingly, expressing equally strong degrees – of.-convict-ion-.-P-erhaps-we-are -less-elever.,…..but—we-are….aware-of……no-mcthod….valid—at.oLall…tImes- and 1n all — places, for determining the directIon of a breakout before it actually takes place or, indeed, of being totally certain that It is real when It does occur. We are, nonetheless, willing to hazard a guess that the ultimate resolution of the current dilemma will be on the upsIde eIther, with a continuation of Thurs- day's action or with a pullback into the range followed by an eventual broad upside move. ThIS guess is based on a number of aspects of internal market action. The past six weeks. first of all, have seen more mdividual stocks demonstrating bullish behavior than bearish. Each week, we survey upside and downside breakouts for some 3000 issues. During thIS period exactly 100 stocks have posted upside breakouts, 43 of them major, while there have occurred only 67 downside breakouts, with but 13 of them representing major tops. This sort of action hardly suggests the sort of internal deterioration which might be expected to precede an Important down- SIde thrust. Analysis of breadth strowsthat, between March 15 and AprIl 24. there occurred, on average 740 individual stock declines per day. This is almost the same as the number that occurred in the October- January trading range. where the ultimate resolution was on the upside, and perceptibly, although not sIgnifICantly, less than the 783 average dally declines wh1ch characterized the January-March short-term top. In the October-January trad1ng range, daily downSIde volume averaged 36.45 million shares and, m the current case 37 million shares. This contrasts with 47.59 million shares durIng January-March. The recent trading range, moreover, has shown a respectable 76 average d811y new 52-week highs versus only 10 new lows. We frankly do not see in these numbers anytlung which should. suggest significant underlying deterioration. AssumIng the reality of the current upside breakout, it becomes necessary to formulate an ulti- mate target. Such a target would undoubtedly mean new highs by a SIgnifIcant amount, but we find it d1fficult to project astronomical figures. The base formatIon between July and January has upside object- lYes in the 1350-1400 range, and we would certt\inly consider this a possIbility. By contrast, if the breakout is reversed and the current range is unexpectedly penetrated on the downside, it IS difficult to see prIces all that much lower. Strong support at 1225-1200 should contain any downswing. Our readers are aware that we consider the present bull market to be in a mature phase, but we still think the investment odds favor a relatively-fully-invested equity positIon. AIVTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (12' 00 p.m.) 1279.03 S & P Composite (12' 00 p.m.) 183.26 Cumulative Index (4/25/85) 2411. 51 ANTHONY IV. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. NO statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, direct Iv or Indirectly, an offer or the soliCitatIOn of an offer to buy or sel! any seC\.lflty referred toor mentioned The matter IS presented merety lor the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources 01 our Information to be reliable we 1(1 no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereol nor of the statements made herem Any action to be tafen by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and mformation Delafield Harvey Tabell Inc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take POSitions or trades In respect to any secuntles mentioned I!'\ thiS or any luture Issue, and such position may be different from any views nowor heroafter exprtssed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey Tabell Inc which Is registered with the SEC as an Investment advisor, may gIVe adVice to Its IflleS\ment adVisory and other customers Independenlly of any statements made In thiS or In any otller Issue Further Information on any secuflly mentioned herein IS aallable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - May 03, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 May 3, 1985 . . – . We hav….of1e!l !a;kedI1thel thaltl!wrliDg. 9\-.a – wekly.. stoc1smatket, letti–1iJlexe!,coS' I-,1 calculated to engender humility. Last week. for example, we noted the fact that-the Dow had spent the previous month-and-a-half in a range bounded, roughly. by 1250 and 1275. Literally as we were writing that particular piece. it moved out of that range on the upside accompanIed by new highs in the S 8 P 500 and the NYSE ComposIte. We went on to launch a scholarly discourse on the market's internal behaVIor durIng that tradIng range and suggested that, whether last week's breakout was real or not. the ultimate resolution was likely to be on the upsIde. Startmg preclsely from that point, the market headed due south, posted a 42-point decline over the next four days,and broke out of the trad- ing range on t,he downsidc. producing a five-point. point-and-figure chart as shown below. II i Now that plunge over the precIpIce on the right looks pretty scary. The problem is that the fact of the plunge is not exactly something privy to ourselves and to select readers of this letter. The above chart can currently be reproduced. with varying degrees of accuracy, on about a dozen microcomputer systems. A conventional bar chart. which shows the downside breakout Just as dramatically, appears dally In the Wall Street Journal. The ostensible message of downside breakouts is now known to just about the entire financial community and is. today. if not universally beheved. at least not. as was the case a few years ago t aggressively disbelieved. All of the above has been true for some years now. This has had a tendency to produce a phenomenon known as the false breakout. four instances of whIch are noted by arrows In the chart above. The fIrst three in question were downside breakouts which took place respectively In July, October, and December. 1984. The most recent instance was the upside breakout just last week. The chart documents the aftermath of each. We are not here advocating the heresy that analysis of trading ranges has become meanIngless. We are simply suggesting that an upside or downside breakout is becoming more and more difficult to identify at the precise time it is taking place and that such identIficatIon reqUIres corroboration by a fair amount of supportIng eVIdence. That eVIdence was conspicuous by Its absence in last week's turnaround. We suggested at that time that market breadth was not showing the sort of deterioration which should presage a major decline. ThIS has continued to be the case In the past fIve day's tradIng. Despite the market'S sharp drop. the number of dechning issues remained below its normal fIgure on three of the four days since the market turned down. The normal expected level for a daily breadth index at this point would be somewhere close to a test of its low of last December. Instead. breadth indicators remain today not all that far away from their February hIgh. The week's action was not WIthout its disappointment. Downside volume and other measurements showed the eXIstence of sellIng pressure of some intensity, intensity that, if It were to continue. would be profoundly disturbing. Nonetheless. before beIng panIcked by the pIcture shown by the chart above, it is wise to recall that. as measured by broad-based Indicators. the market achieved a newall-time high Just a week .ago. and the aftermath so far has been only four days of somewhat disappointing action. AWT rs Dow-Jones Industrials (12.00 p, m,) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (5/2185) 1248.67 179.40 2381. 01 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC, … No statement or expresSion of OPInion or any other matter herein contained IS or Is to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any secunty referred toor mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe !he sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent orguafantee the accuracy thereat nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subsCriber should be based on hiS own Investllatlon and mformalton Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporal Ion and lis officers or employees, may now hae, or may later take, poSItions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In this or any future Issue, and such position may be dllferent from any views now or hCleafter eypressed In thiS or anyolher Issue Detafletd Harvey Tabell Inc, whIch IS registered WIth the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give advIce to ItS Investment adVisory and other customers Independently 01 any statements made In Ihls Of m any other Issue Further mformatlon On any security mentioned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - May 10, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER -. 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 —1—-' . May 10, 1985 -Iwo we..ks ,ago ,–onApril ..25,.!!andarcLJI Poor's50QoStock .IndeL.closed,l!t183. 43,a,marginal. , .08 above the peak it hac!- posted more than two months before' in February.' At that level, the 500 was at n newall-time high, 79 above its 102.42 close of August 12, 1982. As of a fortnight ago, therefore. a 32-month-old bull market was still in force. Our present investment perspectIve can be summed up in the sentence that 32 months is a long time for a bull market. Now that statement IS intended to do nothing more than supply perspective, and it is certmnly not intended to imply any particular near-term pessimism on our part. The continued existence of a bull market as of two weeks ago is a fact. GIven that fact, there exist at the present time three possible market scenarios. The first is thut April 25 was the high (unlikely). The second is that the bull market will continue to score modest new highs throughout the remainder of the year (more likely). and the third is that those hIghs will be significantly above and removed in tIme from present levels (less likely). This combination of pOSSIbIlities enables us to view the market In an essentially constructive mode. preCIsely as we have been doing for the past 32 months. However, cycles must invariably come to an end and. quite probably. this one will do so within the next year. Therefore, caution is appropriate. Strangely enough. it is not too early, even with the bull market's end sitting out there at some nebulous point In the future. to try to look beyond that point and formulate some guidelines as to what might ensue. What will next take place, of course, is a bear market of as-yet-unknown severity. Like all bear markets. it will not be pleasant but will, eventually, run Its course. What wIll follow. as the night the day, is the next bull market and it is not premature. even at this stage, to engage in preliminary speculation as to whence the leadershIp for that bull market might come. One of the first places to begin looking for cycle bull-market leadership is among non-parti- cipants in the previous bull market. Two major areas which seem to fall in this category as far as the present market is concerned are the 011 and the Over-the-Counter sectors. Both of these, m different ways, are major-market segments. The GTC market, by def,m- tion. consists of smaller. and, therefore, higher-growth-po!ential companIes a…!ld &an be taken–largely, -. –I—';althOUgn nottotally, synonomous withthe-high-technology -area Gils—;-although at the exact opposite — –. end of the scale in company SIZe, tend to constitute some 20 of the broad-based indices. They also tend, empirical studies have shown. to move in their own cyclical rhythm. independent of other major market segments. That both have been underperformers is demonstrable. The NASDAQ OTC Industrials rose almost 130 between August, 1982 and June, 1983, tWIce as much as the S & P 500. They then dropped almost 40 over the next year, to July, 1984, and equalled their July low in December during a period when the market In general was moving ahead. In order to trace the Oils' underperformance, it is necessary to go all the way back to November, 1980. five months before the end of the bull market previous to the current one. At that point the S & l' Oll CompOSIte reached 392.2. To the August, 1982 low it dropped 52. twice as much as the market as a whole. The subsequent recovery, which extended to April, 1984. was more or less in line with the market as a whole but follOWIng this another period of underperformance set in. and. as recently as January of this year, the Oil index was still below Its 1984 high. The underperformance of the two groups can be summarIzed by noting that, at current prices, the OTC Industrials are just moderately above their 1980- 81 high and the Oils still remain below that high. The 500, by contrast, is today some 30 above its previous bull-market peak. It is not unusual for a group which is to lead a bull market to begin to show above-average relatIve action in the final stages of the preceding one. A notable example is basic-Industry stocks In the early 1970's. These issues began to show Improved relative action at the end of the 1970-73 up- swing and in turn led the 1974-76 bull move. Therefore. recent action in the Oil and Over-the- Counter sectors assumes some importance. From its January low, in response to takeovers and restructuring, the Oil Composite has moved from 310.6 to a level of 372.0 on May 1, a 19.8 gam. GTC improvement, by contrast, was impreSSIve during December-February, when the NASDAQ IndustrIals posted an al.n108t 25-rise. twice as great as the market. However, the subsequent follow-through has been disappOlnting. It IS. of course, not known at this stage whether these two areas will continue to show im- proved technical action, suggesting their possible leadership role in a future upswing or whether they WIll agam begin to underperform and entirely new potential leadership will emerge. Their tech- nical behavior, in any case, will be worth watching. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones IndustrIals (12 00 p. m.) S P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (5/9/85) 1272.08 183.30 2405.82 NO statement or eypresslon of OPinion or any other matter herein contained 1, or Is to be doomed to be directly or mdlreclly an oller or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any secuflty ret erred 10 or mentioned The mailer IS presentoo merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our mformatlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guaranlee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements mada herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber Should be based on hiS own Investigation and information Delalleld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporahon and liS olilcers or employees, may now have or may later ta;-e, posItions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be dllfcrent from any VieWS now or he/ealter expressed In thiS 01 any other Issue Delafield Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SECas an Investment adVisor, may give advice to ItS Investment adVISOry and Other cuslomers Independently 01 any statements made In thiS or In any othor Issue Further Information on any secunty mentioned herOin IS available on rOQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - May 17, 1985
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TABELL1S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 May 17, 1985 We will. thIS week, duly join most technical writers m celebratIng a new bull-market high In sreeecmo gsmatsi o noood f the fnct a tIme as that any such a hIgh to drag-out. was onc mdeed e agam attai . -ari- nue-pddabtyedt-hveeSstlaonndoa-rrdth&e-' P cL oors hart 500. It there 'belo';, which fho-ares—- appeared In thIS letter a number of tImes In the past and may well appear again before the entire pro- cess is over. CYCLE PERIOD LOW-HIGH AOVANCE) PEAt. CYCLE DATE UN JSIl9-SEP 1953 Pls-cell97 ocr I S7-JUN 19 2 JU 1962-0CT 1 5 OCT J966-f'lRY 1970 MAT 7 – CT 197 aCT 1 7 -MRR 7 HFIR 197e-RUG 1982 (.73 141 (119 021 196 75) JR 1953 RUG 1956 ..86 35) DEC 1961 (.79 7el F 56 173.5' JlN 197 P 197 (6 70J NOV 1980 172.65 OCT 1 1983 I-I (68 'I CtJ9/REIr CTCLE ( 24.8 JUl 1981.,\ 11.,\7 82 1811 54 MlH 1 1985 I 0Ea.1 IQI .-u,TIl '-Ir !VI! UII'I SEP..l.9S on ,ooo,e, .,L'lJ JUN I Qt;JRUG.JSa; MRT…1.S2l That process is the current major market cycle WhICh began on August 12, 1982 at 102.42 and. interrupted by the October, 1983-Ju1y, 1984 intermediate-term correction, carried to 184,54 as of Wednesday I an 80 advance. We identify this as the 24th such major cycle since 1896, and the history and shape of the eight previous cycles is shown by the horizontal lines at the top of the chart. The lines are drawn to the same horIzontal timescale as the chart Itself. and each cycle is measured from low to low. The high for each cycle is shown by a hash mark along with its date and the total percentage advance. It is well known that past cycles have averaged just under four years in length. Furthermore, the vast majority of all prevIous cycles have spent something between 50 and 90 of their total lifespan advancing. Now these figures are admittedly imprecise but, when applied to the current instance they suggest a cycle peak m the latter half of 1985, or, at the latest, early 1986. The eight prevIous cycles shown on the chart reenforce this. In terms of length. the present upswmg has lasted longer than all but two of the past eight bull markets (1949 -1953', and 1962-1966). Its percentage advance likewise is greater than that demonstrated on the five most recent upswings. We have noted repeatedly that comments of this nature are for perspective only, suggesting the strong possibIlity of a major peak's being attained sometIme In the next nine months. The internal loss of momentum whlch should proceed such a peak has occurred. so far, only to a limited degree. There exists an argument, advanced by some cycle theorists. which could vitiate the above reasoning — the theory that August, 1982-July, 1984 constItuted a completed cycle, in which case we have been. for the past year, in the first leg of a brand new bull market. ThIS argument has a few points to commend it, but we must confess we remaIn skeptical. A cycle completed WIthin 23 months has only one historical precedent. a pattern formed by recognizmg a four-month bear market in March-July. 1923 In order to dIVIde the August. 1921-September, 1929 period into two separate cycles. We think it far more conVlncmg to regard Fall, 1983-Summer, 1984 as an intermediate-term correction In a bull market context. The argument is, in any case, purely academic. Momentum indicators. for the time beIng at least, favor the fullY-Invested positIon advocated m this space for the past two-and-a-haIf years. Our precise cycbca1posltion as of May, 1985 can be left for theoretIcians to identIfy at a later date. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (12'00 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (5/16/85) 1281. 80 188,13 2450.33 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC, No statement or CKpreSSlon 01 opInion or any olher matter herein contained IS or IS to be deemed to be, drreclly or Indrrectly, an offer or the solicitatIon of an offer to buyor seff any security referred to or mentIoned The miltte! IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber WhIle we belIeve the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In noway represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the stalements made herein Any acllon to be taken by the subscnber should be based on hIS own investIgation and information Delafield Harvey, Tabeff Inc, as a corporation and ItS officers or employees, may now have or may later take, POSitIons or trades In respect 10 any seCUrities mentioned In lhls or any future ISsue, and such POSition may be dllferent from any vIews now 01 heleafter eApressed In this or any other Issue Delafield Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With Ihe SECas an Investment adVisor, may give adVice tOlts rnvestment adVISOry and 01 her customers Independently of any statements made In Ihls or In any other Issue Further InformatIon on any securlly mentIoned herein IS avaIlable on request

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