Viewing Month: June 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 07, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 07, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - June 07, 1985
View Text Version (OCR)

. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 9249660 – June 7. 1985 Hey. hey. anybody IIstenmg Hey. hey. anybody there Hey. hey. anybody lIc;tIng ………. Anybody care!! Children's song The most remarkable fact about the current stock market. In our view, IS that it IS gomg largely unnotIced. ConSIder what IS happening. The WIdely followed Dow-Jones IndustrIal Average. along WIth the more sCIentiflC. If less notIced, broad-based indIces IS sailing along merrIly postIng newall-time hIghs. These hIghs are being confIrmed,indeed on occasion beIng led, by new highs in market breadth, WhICh has now Improved to a positIon above its peak of a year ago. Upside volume. if not setting records. can at least be saId to be satisfactory. and. as of last Frlday, a new closing hIgh in the Dow-Jones transports managed to produce an upside confirmahon according to the hoary tenets of the Dow theory. Yet thIS has all transpired WIth only the most routine headhnes in the finanCIal press, and the prospect of Time magazine' s featuring a bull on its cover in the near future must be conSIdered remote. The market, In short. has totally failed to become a media event. True. the prevaIlIng attItude appears to be one of unconcern rather than active skepticism, such as Imght have been expected to be the case a few short years ago. !!Disaster ChIC n among the trendiest of attitudes in the early 1980 ' s, has passed from the scene, and there has been a notable absence, recently, of seminars charglng hIgh prices to Instruct the publIc on the sorts of food to stock in bomb shelters. Not that the snake-oil purveyors have entIrely departed the scene. The latest fashionable tOPlC for blg-buck semInars. the weekly news ,dcu.l.,y mform us, IS how to become rich in real estate with n!Ll1)Q,Il.ey down. Theapl.l-ealofthisI newest fashion to cupIdity rather than cowardlce– mayor may riof be conSIdered -a posItIve SOCIal trend. The point IS that the stock market has not—yet—become a particular focus of pubbc interest. In terms of headlines, It has remained well behind the storIes of mega-takeovers and. In our VIew properly. the prospects for tax reform. In thIS latter Instance, the American publIc. in one of its not-Infrequent exhibitions of great good sense. appears to be amazing its appointed leaders by demonstrating a solId consensus in favor of reform, in dIrect opposition to those pundits who were assuring us earlier this year that reform had no chance of taking place. The stock market. meanwhile, seems to have excited nobody. Burled deep In the agate type of yesterday's financial pages were the pronouncements of a couple of heroes who thought that the Dow might get all the way to 1400 by the end of the year, this, of course. conslltutmg a move of all of 6. the equivalent of three pOInts on a 50 stock. If this is the best our fearless forecasters can do. it is not surprising that the stock market fails to attaIn the status of front-page news. It IS forecasts of the Dow-2000 varIety that are reqUIred to accomplish this. They. of course. have been conspicuous by their absence. A large part of the lack of Interest. It must be admItted. can probably be explained by the changed nature of today's equity markets. Institutional dominance IS now. of course. a fact of hfe I and the forces mOVIng the market upward of late tend to be buying programs. orders to Invest some number of ZIllions of dollars spread across 100 or more stocks. ThIS is not the sort of thing calculated to set the JUIces flOWIng in the same way as the latest runups in current speculative favorites tended to do a few years ago. Nonetheless. we must confess our OpInIOn that a market which IS rISIng under healthy technIcal conditions without a great deal of outcry should be viewed as an eminently healthy phenomenon. Indeed. such a rally should be a great deal more sustaInable than a rIse which has reached the pOInt of maximum publIc awareness. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P CompOSIte (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (6/6/85) 1321. 80 190.67 2528.93 NO statement or e..oresslon 01 opinion or ani other matter herem contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be drreclly or indirectly an oHer or the soliCitation of an offer (0 buyor sell any secunty referred to or mentioned The matter IS plesented merely for the convenrence of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our mformallon to be reliable we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be laken by the subscrrner should be based on his own investIgatIon and information Delafield Harvey, Tabell Inc as a corporahon and Its oilicers or employees may now have, or may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to coy secuntles mentIOned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posilion may be dlfleren\ from any views nOli or t18leai!el expressed In thiS or any other issue DeI81Ie!d, Harvey Tabell Inc which IS registered With the SECas an Investment adVisor may gIve advice to ItS Investment adVisory and other customers Independently of any statemerlts made In thIS or m any other Issue Further mformatlon on any secunty mentioned herein IS avaIlable on request

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 14, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 14, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - June 14, 1985
View Text Version (OCR)

, – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – — —- TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 June 14. 1985 – table The season has arrived for disucssion of below;'whiCnwe aiily recompute e.rch year the as nSeuwm- mfiegrurralbleycoalnfdiereapvuabilliacbalteion''ofth;e;—–II– The past few years have been particularly interesting in terms of Summer market action, specifically action during the month of August. 1982. of course. saw the first major-cycle bottom in history occur in that month, Last year. after a nine-month. intermediate-term de- cline. the Dow bottomed on July 24. and August produced a 9.78 rally in the Dow. In any case. as our readers will recall. the table below takes all one-month and two-month periods for the 59 years from 1926 to 1984, It shows the number of instances in which the Dow ad- vanced and the number in which it declined. For each period. the average percentage change is also shown. OoelIootbeeJl.ods i1226128) IwolIoo1beeJiods !122612841 EodlIootb Qdwaoces Declioes weJaseCbs. dwaoces Decll.oes aweJilaeCba. Januarw 37 22 0.97 38 21 2.19 Februarw 30 29 -0.22 33 26 0.75 Harch 33 26 -0.01 28 31 -0.32 April 34 25 1.24 37 22 1.29 Haw 28 31 -0.94 33 26 0.50 June 30 29 0.90 26 33 -0.08 Jul 36 23 1.72 36 23 2.58 Ausust Septe/aber 1- -oCt;ol;jer 38 23 31 – 21 36 28 1.58 -1.31 -0.37 40 19 3S 24 27 32 3.44 o. 23 -1.64 Noyember 36 23 0.72 35 24 0.40 December 43 16 1.18 —– 42 17 1.92 —– TO.TAL 399 309 0.45 410 298 0.94 The 59 years since 1926 have comprised a total of 708 months. Of those months. 399. or 56. produced advances, The normal expectation for any single month for the 59-year period. therefore. would be that approximately 33 months would show a rise and some 26 months. a decline, As can be seen. the record for both July and August. the latter month especially. is considerably better than this, It is on the basis of these numbers that many analysts have remarked the tendency toward a rally in the Summer months. As we have pointed out in the past. however. July and August do not constitute the most statistically significant periods in the table. The most unusual record shown is that of September which occurred as a rising month in only 23 of the 59 years. a phenomenon widely at variance with the overall history. Likewise. the year-end rally. as shown by the fact that a rIsmg December has occurred in 43 of 59 months. is a considerably more likely occurrence than an advance in July or August. Nonetheless. although the significance may be marginal. the July-August period does demonstrate an advancing propensity. This propensity becomes even more significant when one looks at two-month periods. The two months together have produced a rise in 40 of 59 years. and the average change for that two-month period is .3.44. a number 3! times as great as the average for the 708 periods under study. Given this record. the current market position with most indicators (as of a week ago at least) in gear on the up side. and the recent history of August explosions. the Summer of 1985 might well be an interesting one for the stock market. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P ComposIte (12 00 p. m. ) Cumulative Index (6/13/85) 1293,79 185.93 2493.95 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TAB ELL INC. No stnt!)ment or e)(prcSSlon 01 opinIon or any other matler herein conl'lIned IS Of IS to be deemed 10 be, dlreclly or Indlrec1ly an ofter or the sollCltallOn of an offer 10 buy or sell any security relerred toor mentioned lhe matter IS presented merely for the convenlcnce 01 the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable weir! no way represent or guarantee the accuracy Ihereol nor of the stalemcnts made herein Any acllon 10 be taken by the subscriber should be based on his o …n mvestlgahon and Inlormatlon Delafield Harvey Tabell Inc. as a corporation ano lis officers or employees may now have or may laler take. pOSlhons or trades In respect 10 any secuntles mentioned In thiS or any lufum Issue, and such pOSition may be dll1l)renl from any views nowor herealler epressod mlhls or anyolher Issue Oelafleld Harvey labell Inc which IS reglslered With the SEC as an rnvestmenl adVisor may give advice to lIs rnveslmenl adVISOry and other customers Independently ot any statements made In IhlS or In any other ISSue Further tnformatlon on any security menllonod herein Is available on request

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 21, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 21, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - June 21, 1985
View Text Version (OCR)

– TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS INC (609) 9249660 – June 21, 1985 One of the venial sins best foresworn by the Investor is impatience. This can take many forms. One is a compulsIve desire continually to do somethIng. A rising stock becomes a candidate for profit taking. A temporarily underperforming stock is thought to be a switch possibihty, etc. etc. This particular compulsion is a modern-day phenomenon and probably a reaction to the conservatism of the typical investment management proceess of 30 years ago where the making of decisions was a task to be avoided if at all possible. Things are probably better today, but, all too often, compulsive actlvity results in portfolio performance inferIOr to that which could have been obtained simply by leaving well-selected stocks alone. A similar affliction is the compulsion to read transcendental Significance into everything the stock market is doing day by day. This compulsion has led to an especial frustratIOn in recent years, since, as we have spent some time in this space pointing out, the market's recent tendency has been to spend protracted periods of time doing nothing of much Importance, followed by short bursts of action during which important price change has taken place. It is almost a year now since July 24, 1984, when the' stock market made its last important bottom at 147.82 on the S & P 500, from which point it has advanced a rewarding 35. The initial phase of that rise lasted for exactly five weeks, to August 28,and took the S & P ahead. 13.2 to 167.40, with the index advancing on 20 of the 25 trading days in I -questtClTl.''4'iTere then followetl-smnl'lirween-duringwhich the-lliarket-tiid'nuthing-whatsoever;-o with the 500 holdIng in a range between 170.41, slightly above the August high, and 161.67, a range just 5.2 from low to high. Finally, starting on January 9 of this year, there ensued another explosion. Once more, this lasted for just five weeks with 21 of the 26 trading days being on the upside. The S & P moved ahead 11, from 165.18 on January 9 to 183.85 on February 13. The aftermath was similar, a 12-week hiatus while the average held in even narrower trading range of 3.9. This finally was followed by the latest upside burst, a four-week rally from May 8 to June 6, raising the level of the S & P by 5.8, an advance somewhat smaller in scope than its two predecessors. In the two weeks since that time, the market seems to have fallen into another period of lassitude, with the trading range so far being 2.4 from low to high. The point is there will probably be no good reason to become frustrated with this sort of action, especially if it continues for some time, as, based on the record of the past year, it may very well do. When the latest new high was posted just two weeks ago, most moment- um indicators were in gear on the upside, indicating the presence of a continuing bull market. There has been a distinct lack of noticeably broad deterioration since then, just as there were no such signs during the long frustrating periods between September and the end of 1984 and from February to May of this year. Lackadaisical action may continue for some time, but there is no indication at the moment that, following the appropriate period of digestion, the rise will not agaIn resume. — ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m. ) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (6/20/85) 1304.09 187.08 2509.93 NO statement or expreSSion of Opinion Of any other maltcr herem contained IS Of IS to be deemed to be directly Of indirectly an ofler or the sollcllatlon 01 an olrer to buyor sell any security reterred toor mentioned The mailer IS presented merely lor the convenlcnceollhesubscnber While we believe the sources of our mformahon to be reliable. we In noway represent or guarantee the accuracy th'1reol nor althe statements made herem Any acllon to be taken by Ihe subSCriber should be based on hiS own mvestlgatlon and Informal Ion Oelaflekl, Harvey label! Inc, as a corporation and liS ofilcers or employees, may now have or may laler lale, poSlltons Oillades In respect to any securities menlloned In thiS or any future Issue and such POSition may be dlUerent from any views now or hereafler e.-pressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield Harvey label! Inc which IS reglslered With Ihe SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice tOllS Investment adVISOry and other cuslomers Independenlly of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 28, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 28, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - June 28, 1985
View Text Version (OCR)

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER — 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 924-9660 June 28, 1985 Today's exercise might appropriately be entitled Where the action isn't. Thursday's trading saw new closing hIghs in the Dow-Jones Industrials (at 1332.21) and in the Standard & Poor's 500 II—S tock-Il,-,-a-1-91. 23hhere .-were ,-howeer-,—large.seg.men ts.o(,the emarkeLnoLparticip atingin the festIVItIes. ThIS IS not an entIrely new phenomenon. Despite the existence'of a bull market dating back to August, 1982, there remain a fair number of market areas where performance has been mediocre at best, as the two charts below attempt to show. The chart at left, which has appeared in thIS space before, traces the action of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average vs. the NASDAQ OTC Indus- trials from late 1973 to date. As the chart clearly shows, the history of the OTC market from 1974 through mid- 1983 can be almost described as one long bull market. During that period the OTC Industrials advanced from a low in the low 50's to over 400, a rise of almost 700. The corrections were steep, but over with quickly, with the exception of the protracted downswing from early 1981 through 1982. In the first phase of the bull market, how- Ole DJIA ever, what might be termed a blowoff move took OTC issues into new high territory, both on an actual and rela- –tivebasis..EollowlIlgthat.oLcourse ,O.TCstocks..sJlllIlLal1llarJJl.d.a.half illl!.majoJ'beJU' market' -I while the broad-based indices were undergoing- only a mild correction A sharp rally in early January of this year suggested that the downtrend might be over, but the rally has since aborted and, as the right hand side of the chart shows, relative strength has again been deteriorating with the OTC Index moving sideways while the Do advanced. S&P CAPITAL GOODS I CONSUMER GOODS The chart at right shows another relative ratio, that of the S & P CapItal Goods Index to its Consumer Goods Index. Our colleague, Alan Shaw, noted in a recent letter that this ratio had declined to under I, its lowest level in years. Indeed, the inferior per- formance of Capital Goods stocks antedates the current bull market by a considerable extent, the ratio having peaked in 1980, well before the 1981-1982 bear market. The most recent declining phase is coincident with the current bull market leg from mid-1984, a rise in which Capital Goods stocks essentially failed to parti- cipate, and these issues now find themselves at the same level in relation to Consumer Goods issues that prevailed at the 1982 bottom anl previous to this, at the 1972-1973 high. As Alan pointed out, this is a repeat of a low reached many times before, going back to the 1940's. The reason for citing laggard areas at this thiie-is-that -the basIc-qiIesTion facing investors at -. the moment relates to the continuance of the current bull market. It is doubtful that a significant extension of that upswing can take place without new leadership emerging. The laggard perform- ance of the two sectors shown suggests that there are indeed areas from which such leadership could emerge. ANTHONY W. TAB ELL AWTrs DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones IndustrIals (12 00 p. m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (6/27/85) 1331. 43 191.28 2538.38 No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herem contained IS or IS to be deemed to be directly or IndlrecUy, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buyor sell any secunty referred 1001 mentlonoo The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of Ihasubscnber While we beheve the sources of our mlormallon 10 be reliable, we In no way represent orguaranleethe accuracy thereof nor of the slalemenlS made herem Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on his own Invesllgallon and Informallon Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may tater tae, positions or trades In respect 10 any securtlles mentioned In thiS or any lutura Issue and such pOSl\lon may be diliereni from any VieWS now or hereafler c(pressed m thiS or any other Issue Delafield Harvey Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give advice tOils Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made Ifl thiS or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on a ny security mentioned herelfl IS available on request

Download PDF