Tabell’s Market Letter – June 14, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 14, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - June 14, 1985
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, – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – — —- TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 June 14. 1985 – table The season has arrived for disucssion of below;'whiCnwe aiily recompute e.rch year the as nSeuwm- mfiegrurralbleycoalnfdiereapvuabilliacbalteion''ofth;e;—–II– The past few years have been particularly interesting in terms of Summer market action, specifically action during the month of August. 1982. of course. saw the first major-cycle bottom in history occur in that month, Last year. after a nine-month. intermediate-term de- cline. the Dow bottomed on July 24. and August produced a 9.78 rally in the Dow. In any case. as our readers will recall. the table below takes all one-month and two-month periods for the 59 years from 1926 to 1984, It shows the number of instances in which the Dow ad- vanced and the number in which it declined. For each period. the average percentage change is also shown. OoelIootbeeJl.ods i1226128) IwolIoo1beeJiods !122612841 EodlIootb Qdwaoces Declioes weJaseCbs. dwaoces Decll.oes aweJilaeCba. Januarw 37 22 0.97 38 21 2.19 Februarw 30 29 -0.22 33 26 0.75 Harch 33 26 -0.01 28 31 -0.32 April 34 25 1.24 37 22 1.29 Haw 28 31 -0.94 33 26 0.50 June 30 29 0.90 26 33 -0.08 Jul 36 23 1.72 36 23 2.58 Ausust Septe/aber 1- -oCt;ol;jer 38 23 31 – 21 36 28 1.58 -1.31 -0.37 40 19 3S 24 27 32 3.44 o. 23 -1.64 Noyember 36 23 0.72 35 24 0.40 December 43 16 1.18 —– 42 17 1.92 —– TO.TAL 399 309 0.45 410 298 0.94 The 59 years since 1926 have comprised a total of 708 months. Of those months. 399. or 56. produced advances, The normal expectation for any single month for the 59-year period. therefore. would be that approximately 33 months would show a rise and some 26 months. a decline, As can be seen. the record for both July and August. the latter month especially. is considerably better than this, It is on the basis of these numbers that many analysts have remarked the tendency toward a rally in the Summer months. As we have pointed out in the past. however. July and August do not constitute the most statistically significant periods in the table. The most unusual record shown is that of September which occurred as a rising month in only 23 of the 59 years. a phenomenon widely at variance with the overall history. Likewise. the year-end rally. as shown by the fact that a rIsmg December has occurred in 43 of 59 months. is a considerably more likely occurrence than an advance in July or August. Nonetheless. although the significance may be marginal. the July-August period does demonstrate an advancing propensity. This propensity becomes even more significant when one looks at two-month periods. The two months together have produced a rise in 40 of 59 years. and the average change for that two-month period is .3.44. a number 3! times as great as the average for the 708 periods under study. Given this record. the current market position with most indicators (as of a week ago at least) in gear on the up side. and the recent history of August explosions. the Summer of 1985 might well be an interesting one for the stock market. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P ComposIte (12 00 p. m. ) Cumulative Index (6/13/85) 1293,79 185.93 2493.95 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TAB ELL INC. No stnt!)ment or e)(prcSSlon 01 opinIon or any other matler herein conl'lIned IS Of IS to be deemed 10 be, dlreclly or Indlrec1ly an ofter or the sollCltallOn of an offer 10 buy or sell any security relerred toor mentioned lhe matter IS presented merely for the convenlcnce 01 the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable weir! no way represent or guarantee the accuracy Ihereol nor of the stalemcnts made herein Any acllon 10 be taken by the subscriber should be based on his o …n mvestlgahon and Inlormatlon Delafield Harvey Tabell Inc. as a corporation ano lis officers or employees may now have or may laler take. pOSlhons or trades In respect 10 any secuntles mentioned In thiS or any lufum Issue, and such pOSition may be dll1l)renl from any views nowor herealler epressod mlhls or anyolher Issue Oelafleld Harvey labell Inc which IS reglslered With the SEC as an rnvestmenl adVisor may give advice to lIs rnveslmenl adVISOry and other customers Independently ot any statements made In IhlS or In any other ISSue Further tnformatlon on any security menllonod herein Is available on request

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