Tabell’s Market Letter – March 29, 1985

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 March 29, 1985 .. By deflnitioo.–buli-market conditeri;twlbers of stocks are making new highs or remain close to recently-posted highs. We studied, this week, a sample of 1,311 New York Stock Exchange securItIes to ascertain to what extent these conditions exist today. The table at rIght shows the amounts by which Pc t . Down No. of Stocks I. of To tal these 1311 issues were, at their Wednesday close, off ——— ————- ———- from their bull-market highs. As it indicates, more Ol.-IO/. 486 37.07 than a third of all issues under study are within 10 10l.-20/. 297 22.65 of their highs for the bull market, and almost 60 are within 20' of those highs. Based on this, prospects for the bull market's continuance appear good since it would take very little strength for these issues to move On to new high territory. 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 164 128 103 47 45 20 12.51 9.7F, 7.86 3.59 3.43 I. 98 Month High Ma de Number of Stocks Cumulatlve ————— May 1983 —————- 126 Juo 1983 165 126 291 80-99 15 I. 14 The table at left shows the number of stocks Jul 1083 AU9 1983 5ep 1983 Oc t 1983 93 34 56 51 l384 which posted their bull-market highs to date in each month since May, 1983. It is the top and bottom por525 tions of the table that are interesting. 537, or 41, of No. 1983 Oec 1983 Jan 1984 29 23 78 554 the issues have posted new bull-market highs in the i(( past three months. It is these issues that are at the Fe 1984 Mac 19R4 Ap r 1984 May 1984 JU-n 1gRit 6 661 moment carryingfl the market. On the other hand, 655 12 673 issues, just about half of the total, posted their highs 16 157 gi prior to February, 1984 and have falled to achieve new '''''''7n-peaks sinceIt-is6urbelie-r-that1nefUture oftn'e—-I Jul 1984 Aug 1984 Sep 1984 0 11 12 711 bull market hinges upon the recovery prospects for 773242 these I. ssues. Oc t 19R4 Nov 1984 Oec 1984 12 14 14 746 760 774 STOCKS MAKING HIGHS BEFORE JANUARY 19A4 Joe 1985 Fe b 1985 Mac 1985 59 220 258 833 1053 1311 No. of Average t of Avg Down Oate of low Stocks Loss Regained From Hlgh Feb 1984 22 51 .81 20.14 The table at right focuses only on those stocks making highs prior to January, 1984, and, for these issues, shows the month of their subse- Mac 1984 Apr 19114 May 10 8d Juo 1984 20 40 51 38 42.68 49.27 49.92 47. 17 25.70 23.40 20.28 24.77 quent low. Also shown in the table are the percentage of their loss to that low regained as Jul 1984 AU9 1984 5p p 19A4 177 24 13 39.85 34.23 34.30 29.93 30.40 34.79 of this week and the amount J at this week's Dc t 1984 20 37 .91 30.30 prices, by which they are down from their highs. Nov 19A4 Oec 1984 24 94 19.52 19.58 49.51 45.85 A fair number of those stocks may be said Jao 19R5 Feb 19B5 62 7 22.08 13.81 43.45 55.76 to be lost to the bull market, at least for the 1985 42 5.93 54.87 time being. These are the 229 stocks that continud to post new lows in November and subsequently, and now find themselves down, on the average, 50 from their cycle highs. On the other hand, the bulk of these issues, 348 stocks, had made correction lows by July of last year. These issues, on the whole, find themselves having regained close to half of the total amount lost from their bull-market highs to their subsequent bottoms, and are, at recent prices, down on average only a bit more than 20 from their highs. Our own observatlon is that many of these stocks have completed substantial bases which suggest that new peaks could be attained. They could thus provide new fuel for the continuance of the bull market. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1261,70 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 179.70 Cumulative Index (3/28/85) 2363.92 No statement or (lJ(preSSlon 01 oplOlon or any other matter herein contalOed Is, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirect lv, an oHer or the sollcltatlon 01 an oller 10 buy or sen any secunty referred loor mentioned The mattellS presented merely lor the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of ourmformallon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereol nor of the statements made herein Any action to be \alo-en by the subsCriber should be based on hIS own mvestlgatlon and mformahon Oelalleld, Harvey, label! Inc, as a corporation and Its officers Or employees may now have or may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSItion may be dilierent Irom any viewS noy' or heleafter expressed m thiS or any olher Issue Delafield Harvey, laben Inc whiCh IS registered with the SECas an Investment adVisor, mayglVe adVice to 11S lOvestment advisory and other customers lOdependenUy of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any security mentioned herein Is 8vallableon request