Viewing Year: 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 04, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 04, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - January 04, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 January 4, 1985 For some years now, we have studied the familiar seasonal tendency of the stock market . tptage a.,-year..end rn.yL7and-'-it … hRs..,.been-t he..Cllstom of t-his-let-te-rtopoint-outsomeMhe—con—–I– Ourelusions-that can be derived from a study of this phenomenon. original study, going back to when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average first was computed in 1897. indicated that such a rally, however miniscule, invariably had taken place. However, two recent periods, 1976-77 and 1977-78, provided exceptions, with the DJIA, in each case, reaching its year-end rally high prior to the first day of January. At this pomt, 1984-5 could be another, since the high of 1211. 57, reached on December 18 and equalled on December 31 has not been bettered. The following facts about the year-end rally may be noted. 1. The year-end rally often has been of great magnitude, occasionally contmuing through the entire subsequent year without a 5 correction being recorded. It frequently contInued with only minor interruptions for as long as six months into the new year. In 1961, 1963, 1964, 1967, 1971, 1975, and 1976, the rally continued into February, March or beyond. However, on other occasions, it has been of only a few day's duration reaching a top extremely early as was the case in 1983-4 when the rally peaked on January 6 which turned out to be the high for the year. In 1960, 1970, 1973, 1974, 1981, and 1982, the rally reached a peak by the first week in January, and, as noted above, the 1976 and 1977 year-end rallies failed entirely to carry into January. 2. There has been a persistent tendency for the rally to begin early in years when the market has been up, and late in years when the market has been down. In recent upward years, 1967, 1975, 1979, and 1980 are examples, the rally commenced from early December. In recent downward years, 1962, 1966, 1969, 1977, and 1981, the rally began late in the year. 1984, a flat year, saw an early start on December 7. -I3. The important thing to watch in connection Ylith the market action in the early.-IDonthsl –ortne new year f.Tn atorementioneo hgtire, the Dec-ember low .. This low has been broken in 51 years out of the past 84. However, in 30 of these 51 cases, it was broken in January and February. For example, in 1970, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1981, and 1982, the December low wabroken in early January. Since 1937, it has never been broken later than mid-March with three exceptions, 1965, 1974, and 1981, when it was finally penetrated in August. In 1984, it was broken on January 25. Thus, if the market is able to hold above its December low for the first 2t months of the year, chances become good that this low will not be penetrated. 4. In years when the December low has been broken, the subsequent trend has been downwards two-thirds of the time. 1962, 1966, 1969, 1973, 1974, 1977, and to some degree, 1984, are typical cases. 1965, 1978, 1980, and most recently 1982 were exceptions. 5. The magnItude of the rally is an important clue as to the year's market trend. For example, an advance of 10 or more from the December low has been followed by an upward or neutral market in 36 of the 42 years that such an advance has occurred. An advance of less than 10 or more from the December low before an identifiable correction takes place has been followed by a downward market in 30 of the 42 years. In 1963, 1964, 1971, and 1980, the year-end rally approximated 10, and in 1972, it was 17. In 1962, 1970, 1973, and 1977, for example, it was less than this figure. 6. The length of time in which the rally continues into the new year is important. For example, in 24 years, the rally continued into March or later. In 20 of these 24 years, the eventual trend was upward. In 1964, 1972, 1975, and 1976, the year-end rally continued into March and in – , – ,1961, 1967, 1971, and I1J80, into February. This year, therefore, the December low, reached December 7 at 1163.21, will become an important reference point to watch. If the Dow is able to surpass its December 31 peak and advance from this low by 10, roughly to the 1280 level, or continue a rally into February or March, the long-term historical implications would be bullish. AWT rs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P Composite (12 00 p.m.) CumulatIve Index (/3/85) 1183.86 164.15 2lO3.61 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or epresslon 01 Opinion or any other mailer herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indlrectfy, an oller or the soliCitation of an offer to buyor sell any security referred toormenttoned The matter IS presented merely forthe convenience of Ihesubscnber While \\Ie believe the sources 01 our information 10 be reliable \\Ie In no wa.y represent or guarantee the accuracy Ihmoo\ n)! 01 \hes\atemn\s made hemin A.ny action to be taken by the subscnber Should De based on his o\\ln investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation ano ItS officers or employees, may now have, or may latel take poSItions or trades In lespectto any securities mentioned m thIS or anv future Issue, and such posItion may be olHerent from any views nowor hereafter eKpressed In thiS or any othellssue Delafield, Harvey TabeJl Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment Clovlsor may gIVe advlcetol!s Investment advisory and other customers mdependenlty of any statements made In thiS or In any other ISSue Further Information on any security mentioned heretn Is avaltable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 11, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 11, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - January 11, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 January 11, 1985 a. . . .– — —Two -weeksago7 we 'issuedour–annual-stock-l11arkt-forecast.for -rheyear1985–T6- great extent it was, to be honest, a hedge, and for this we must apologize. Part of the reason for the uncertainty we expressed was outlined in our forecast letter itself. For technical analysis, central to the development of a forecast is an interpretation of past market history. However, with 1984 safely tucked away into the history books, it remains at this point, in our view, impossible to categorize that year precisely. As we noted, it remains uncertain whether last year was, (1) a bear market, (2) a top formation preceding a-bear market yet to come, or (3) part of an ongoing bull market. Part of our embarrassment, of course, was an accident of the calendar. Year's end is the traditional forecast season, and the logical forecast span is for the year just ahead. Had the last 12 months of market action terminated in any month other than December, we suspect we would have solved the problem by finding topics for discussion other than an attempt at precise formulation of the outlook for the next 12 months. A related question is the precise nature of this letter. To many of our readers, its major thrust may appear to be market timing. This is understandable in view of our practice, in recent years at least. of using it as our major vehicle for discussion of the market in general. We have not, in this space, recommended individual stocks and have only to a limited degree commented on the relative attractiveness of various broad market groups. The reason for this. however, is the simple one that we utillze a number of other vehicles for the purpose of communicating individual stock recommendations to our clientele and thus tend to reserve the letter for general market discussion. ThIS is, therefore, despite appearances, not truly a market-timing letter. It is, rather, a letter based on the discipline we have tried to practice for the past 30 years, i. e., technical -analysisc-A-few-words-on—th-e–clistinction-betwe-en—the-two,r-e–p-erhaps'in—ord-er. Market timing or, if you will, market strategy can be thought of as a sub-discipline of technical work, the other major sub-discipline, equal if not greater in importance, being stock selection — a process which interacts with conventional fundamental security analysis as an input to portfolio management. The reason for the practice of market timing is the well-documented existence of a phenomenon known as co-variance, which is nothing more than a fancy word for the obvious fact that stocks tend to move up and down together. Historically, the more intensely this phenomenon manifests itself, the more an interest in timing tends to emerge in the financial community. It is no accident that the latest such emergence was following 1973-1974, a period during which just about all stocks moved downward, in concert, and severely. Now the co-variance phenomenon has existed throughout recorded history, and we most certainly do not expect it to go away, but the extent to which it has prevailed has certainly varied widely since 1974, and we suspect that it has shown an overall tendency to diminish. A recent case in point is certainly the past 18 months, during which over-the counter stocks have been in an ObVIOUS and severe bear market at precisely the same time that vast segments of the higher-quality listed market have been moving almost uninterruptedly upward. What we are saying, in other words,is that market timing is a devise to be used selectively, and a choice always open to the investment manager is simply not to use it at all. The year just past saw a fairly sharp downswing in January-February and an equally sharp upswing in August-September. Both emerged suddenly with very little warning, and it is dubious how successful conventional timing techniques were in dealing with either one despite assorted claims to the contrary. If 1984 can be categorized at all at this point, it can be as a year in which much -intellectual- energy which could profitably have been devoted to stock selection – was frittered away on attempts to guess the direction of the market. As we look at the intermediate-term outlook at this point, we see no indication that such will not continue to be the case. It will certainly continue to be the task of this letter to monitor the market for signs of a broad move in either direction and to forecast such when it appears appropriate to do so. It is, however, equally appropriate to suggest that no evidence for such a forecast exists, and that portfolio performance is more likely to depend on portfolio content than on general market trend. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1221. 07 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 168.50 Cumulative Index (1/10/85 2154.69 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. . -' No statement or erpreSlon 01 opinion or any other mailer herein contained IS, or IS 10 IX.! deemed 10 be, directly or Indirectly. an offer or the solicitation of an 01lerlo buy or sell any security referred toor mentioned The matter IS presented merely forthe convenience 01 the subscriber While we belleve the sources of our Informal Ion to be reliable, weln no way represent or guaranteethe accuracy thereat nor of the stalements made herein Any action 10 be taken bylhe subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and information Oelafleld, Harvey, Tabel! Inc, as a corporation and lIs oftlcers or employees, may now have or may taler tare, positions or trades In respect to any secuflltes mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSItion may be dllterenl from any views flOW or herealler expressed In thiS or any other Issue Oetaf!eld Harvey Tabell Inc which IS registered With the SECas an Inveslmenladvlsor, may gIve advice 10 lis Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made III thiS or III any other Issue Further Information on any securrty mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 18, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 18, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - January 18, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 January 18, 1985 — -.oI).,. theJflce.pf dt.,. the…..marke4 has ,spnt t,.-he …last fiv–'llonths —e..vr smcethevioJenJ. J .uly-A ugust rally. 11'1 yet'iIi.other of Its familIar trndlh'g' raffg-es. this on'e'delmeated roughly …oy.. 1240 rid 1160 on the Dow. Underlying thIS achon, however, there has been marked internal improvement, and this Improvement has been even more pronounced in 1985 tradmg so far. Nowhere 15 this more noticeable than in the action of breadth statIstIcs over the past five months. We reproduce once more below the charted history of dally and weekly breadth mdices SInce the 1982 low. (As most readers are aware, these mdIcators are computed based on the number of advancmg and declimng stocks for each day or week.) The classic interpretation of these mdIcators suggests that, when successive new hIghs In the Dow are unaccompanIed by new highs In bread1h. a divergence condItIon, mdicatmg an incIpIent bear market eXIsts. Note the actlOn of the two indices between June, 1983 and January, 1984 Conversely, protracted periods when breadth outperforms the Dow are normally suggestIve of bull-market condltlons. -L3illL 1 I M I DOW JONES INDUSTIAL AVERAGE DAILY BREADTM INDEX EEKLY BREADT INDEX The action of the two breadth mdicators smce August of last year is, therefore, instructive. There has been a series of SIX successive Dow peaks at around the 1240 level. Each one has been accom- panied by a new high in both breadth indicators. Even more significant is the level of the weekly breadth mdex m relation to Its peaks of June, 1983 and January, 1984. Both these highs have been ex- ceeded, thus erasIng entIrely the potential negative divergence condition on that mdex. ThIS has not yet occurred on the daily breadth mdex, WhICh. historically. tends to have a slightly greater downward bias. but that mdex is close to bettermg its January peak and not all that far away from Its June, 1983 bull-market high, This trend, as noted above, has accelerated in 1985 so far. As our readers know, we have com- puted a normal druly relationship between the number of advancing stocks and the change m the Dow based on almost 60 years of market hIstory. Based on that relationship, the number of advancing stocks has been above normal and declining Issues below normal on 12 of the 13 trading days since December 31. Based on weekly breadth action (with druly pOSSIbly soon to follow) any potential bear-market signal has now been cancelled, or, at the very least, such a '3ignal was gIven by the June-January dIver- gence. and a tl mmi-bear-market was completed at the August low. We mentioned this latter possibIlIty last month In our 1984 reVIew, and, we admIt, perhaps prematurely. discarded It. In any case, current breadth action must at the moment be construed as hIghly posItive, and we WIll be commentmg further on its implications. Dow-Jones IndustrIals (12.00 p.m,) 1225.27 S & P Composite (12'OD p.m.) 171. 01 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC CumulatIve Index (1117/85) 2217.84 No statement or eKpreSSlon of OJIln1on or any other matter herem contained Is, or Is to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an oller or the soliCitation of an oller to buyor sell any security referred toor mentioned The matter Is presented merely tor Ihe convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our information tobe reliable, we 111 no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereol norofthe statements made herein Any aCllon 10 be taken by Ihe subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, TabeH Inc, as a corporation and Its oltlcers or employees, may now have, or may later take, pOSitIOns or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In this or any future Issue, and such position may be dlnerent from any Ylews now or haleafter expressed In Ihls or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an If'Ivestment adVisor, may give advice to liS Investment adVISOry and othel' customers mdependenlly of any statements made In thiS or m any other Issue Further mformatlon on any security mentioned herein IS ayallable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 25, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 25, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - January 25, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 January 25. 1985 —– –The. o,rrnerly-subtlelmpvovementwhlChhlld-bcen–undcrlying -mo.rketctlondurmg..thre-;Fall-of 1984 and which became more cVldent as the 1984-5 year-end rally extended iilfo -January-, finally became totally obvious this week as stock prices reached newall-time highs. The above statement wIll. we suppose. not be fully official untIl such time as the laggard DowJones Industrial Average which remains some 20 pomts below its November, 1983 closing peak of 1287.20 finally follows the more broadly-based stock-market indicators mto new high ground. The Standard & Poor's 500. however, in reachmg the 175.23 on Monday.bettered its previous all-time high of 172.65' by a considerable margin and subsequently tacked on another couple of points in later tradmg. For those who are infatuated with round numbers, the New York Stock Exchange Composite, which had never closed above 100, surpassed that level on Monday. and the Standard & Poor's IndustrIals find themselves flirting with the 200 level as against a preVIOUS hIgh of 194.84. The Dow-Jones TransportatIOn Average, it is true. despite its superior performance in recent trading remru.ns, at around 603, a hair's breadth below Its January, 1984 closing level of 612.63. Nonetheless, we feel that heraldmg a new stock-market high this week IS hardly premature. Breadth action, which was one of the major precursors of improvement in the fIrst place, remams superIOr. We noted last week that weekly breadth had moved to new high territory. Daily breadth, which had been outperformmg the market whIle remaining below previous highs, thIS week bettered its peak of January, 1984, achieved when the Dow was selling at levels slightly over current ones. and its previous bull-market high, made in June, 1983, is not that far away. The year-end rally, whether measured in terms of the Dow or the S & P, has almost achieved the 10 status which has, in the past. tended to signal good market years. Thanks to the San Francisco 4gers, even the Super-Bowl indicator, for heavens sake, IS favorable. In short, It may be said that bul- market conditions exist. As we have suggested in previous letters, the eXIstence of such conditions at this stage poses some problem for those of us obsessed with cycle indentIfication. These questions center around whether the present upswmg is the first leg of a new bull market which began on July 24 last year at 1086.57 or is an extension of the upswing which began at 776.92 on August 12, 1982 and was interrupted by a 1.4-monthJliatus .duringhlch''-the-populai'–3.JJ-exages…failed.dochieve–the-'-new-'-highs-rnost-of-t-hem-at-t-am—–\ ed thIS week. This argument, we admit, has some of the flavor of medieval scholastic discussion regarding the number of angels who could dance on the head of a pin. It is of something more than purely academIC interest however. If a bull market began at 1086, a 60 advance from that level, equivalent to the August, 1982-November, 1983 advance,lOuld suggest something in the mid-1700's on the Dow as an absolute minimum obJectIve, WIth targets well over the 2000 level certainly within the range of plausibility, (There eXlst past bull markets which have scored gains of well over 100.) By contrast. a 100 gain from 776 would put the Dow at only 1550, and, of course, it would be plausible to expect that an extended bull market migtt end well short of that target. Abandoning theory for a moment, plausible conservative objectives for the DJIA, based on point-and-flgure work, appear to exist in the hIgh 1300's to the low 1400's. The most important point to remember perhaps. is that under current conditions, a high volume advance accompanied by breadth and momentum confirmation, the most unlikely eventuahty is a sudden reversal to the downside. We all know that markets do not go up forever and that at some point and from some level, the present advance will top out and turn down. Such a reversal, however, will almost certamly be accompanied by a protracted period of noticable deterioration. This is something to be worried about when it occurs Until such time, however, the only sensible posItion would appear to be an aggressively invested one. It is a time, in other words, when market timing should take a back seat to the problems of stode selection. This will, as always, in the months ahead, present some rather thorny problems. Over the past year, leadership has centered on consumer /defensive groups, food, soft drinks, and tobacco, for example. and on the fInancial area, banks, insurance companies, and utilities. There exists some eVIdence, admittedly highly preliminary at thIS stage. that the former group may be losing some degree of ItS upside momentum. However, there IS no evidence that the market recovery will not contmue to be fueled by strength in the consumer-spending sector. It appears entirely possible, for example, that retail and leisure-time stocks may pIck up the mantle of leadershIp dropped by the consumer-product producers. Meanwhile. relative strength in the fmancial sector suggests continued above -average price action. Prospects for contInuatIon of the bull market will be importantly affected by two other major sectors. One of these IS energy, and current technical patterns here, with a few notable exceptions, suggest that little near-term leadership is likely to come from this area. The other sector WhICh could contribute new fuel to the bull market's fire is, of course, the severely depressed hIgh-technology /overthe-counter universe. RelatIve strength here has picked up In recent weeks. It is, however, diffIcult to determine, at this stage, whether this is due to a fundamental trend reversal or simply to a deep oversold condition coupled with high volatility. AWT rs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 – 00 p. m.) 1270.76 S & P Composite (12 00 p. m.) 176.88 CumulatIve Index (1/24/85) 2288.48 ANTHONY W, TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. No statement or e..presslon of OpiniOn or any other mailer herein contamed IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indlrec1ly, an ofter or the soliCitation of an oller to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The mailer IS presented merelyfof the convenience of the subscnber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In noway represent or guaranteethe accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on his own Invesflgallon and mformatlon Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, 8S a corporation and ItS offIcers or employees, may now have, or may later take, posillons or trades In respect to any securities mentioned m thiS or any future Issue, and such position may bc different from any YICWS nowor hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabell fnc which IS registered With the SEC as an mvestment adYlsor, mavglve adVice to Its mvestment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any secuflty mentioned herein,s available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 01, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 01, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - February 01, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 – February 1, 1985 Until a temporary stall finally occurred on Friday morning3 the extraordinary January market strength contmued throughout this week. Tuesday featured a 15-point rally, in which the laggard Dow finally achieved a newall-time closing high at 1292.62, eclipsing the previous peak scored some 13 months before. The Dow-Jones Transportation Average joined its sibling index In new high territory. The broad-based indicators, the S & P 500, the S & P Industrials, and the New York Stock Exchange Composite. whose new highs we celebrated last week, continued to post new peaks in this weeks trading. As might be expected. satisfactory numbers of individual issues have also been moving Into new high ground. The number of new 52-week highs has been above 100 every day for the past three weeks, with 319 such peaks being attained on Wednesday, the highest number, with a single exception. since November, 1982. The year-end rally has now reached about 11 on both the Dow and the S & P, an event which has, In the past. normally presaged a good market. However. what has contInued to be most extraordinary is the number of daily advances being chalked up in NYSE tradIng. For the first three trading days of 1985 declining stocks exceeded advanding ones by modest amounts. Following this. the entIre remainder of the month produced days on which advancing stocks exceeded declining ones. a string of 19 consecutive days. This has quite simply never occurred since breadth statistics were first compiled in 1926, — The phenomenon is rare enough that we thought it worthwhile to tabulate SImilar past occurrences. The table below shows every sequence of 12 or more successive advancing days in the past 59 years. the present case being the 15th such occurrence. Also shown are the percentage change In the Dow in the followmg 20, 40, and 80-day periods. Most interesting is the fact that, of the 14 prior occurrences of such an event. 13 occurred during periods WhICh we can historIcally identify as bull markets. The final three columns of the table give the date of the subsequent bull-market peak in each case, the number of –months until that hIgh was reached, and the percentage change in the Dow to the bull market's end. .–; —-r — -………. umbcr-of'- i.C 'a nif'-cAft' e 'r .' Iillr-'11i7Of..,.-….. ——D-a-t-e——— Da'J –D-J-IA— Jul 8-Jul 21 1936 12 165.23 Sep l-Sep 25 1942 12 109.37 Dec 3D-Jan 18 1943 16 121.56 Jarl 22-Feb 4 1947 12 182.29 Nov 26-Dec 8 1951 12 266'.90 Nov 7-Dec 2 1952 16 283.78 Jul 21-Au9 5 1954 12 347.79 AuS 4-Aus 24 1960 15 641.56 -20- – taus —- 1.46 5.35 4.48 -1. 64 1.30 2.86 -1.91 -7.70 40 Das ——- 1.56 6.8 7.40 -3.83 2.54 1. 47 3.48 -9.18 80 Da'.Js ——- 6.46 9.95 10.51 -6.85 -0.93 -0.25 11.21 -4.05 Mkt End Mth5. ——– Mar 1937 10 Ha 1946 44 Ma't 196 O Jun 1948 16 Jan 1953 13 Jan 1953 1 Apr 1956 20 tee 1961 16 —C-h-S17.65 94.29 74.81 5.97 10.07 3.53 49.8 14.55 Jul 28-Aus 18 1965 16 AuS 24-Sep 13 1965 14 894.37 9Ot92 4.12 2.36 4.82 3.34 6.39 Feb 1966 7.01 Feb 1966 6 5 11.27 8.06 Jan 3-Jan 24 1967 16 847.72 Sep 13-0ct 3 1968 12 949.47 Jan 5-Jan 26 1971 16 866.79 .Jul 25-Au9 9 1978 12 891. 63 Jan 7-Jan 31 1985 19 1286.77 -0.43 0.12 1.02 0.23 11 2.69 2.91 3.76 -1. 70 3.49 -0.04 6.53 -9.00 tee 1968 Dec 1968 Jan 1973 —— '1'i' 23 2 24 16.22 3.76 21.33 . The good news in the table, as mentioned above, is the fact that long strings of advancing days seem to be largely peculIar to a bull-market environment. The bad news is that they seem to be more characteristic of a bull market's later stages than its earlier ones. especially in recent history. All of the occurrences from 1960 to date have seen limited rises following the breadth strength, and .. in three cases at least, the remaining lifetime of the bull market was SIX months or less. The two occurrences in 1942 and 1943 and that of July-August, 1954 appear to be the only instances where a great deal of room remained on the upside. As might be expected. extraordInary breadth appeares to suggest addItional short-term strength. In 11 of 14 instances, the Dow had advanced 40 trading days, or approximately two monthslater. There appears to be a distinct upward bias for most of the other time periods under study. As is often the case. in other words. the recent extraordinary strength would seem to forecast further strength. rather than any imminent correction. AIVT rs ANTHONY IV. T ABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) CumulatIve Index (1/31/85) 1279.04 178.75 2333,68 No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlrectty or indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation 01 an ofler to buyor sell any security referred toor mentioned The maller IS presented merely tor the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources 01 our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements made herem Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hIs own Investigation and mformatlon Delalletd, HaNey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and lIs ol1lcers or employees, may now have, or may later take POSitions or trades In respect to any secufltles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be dillerenlirom any views now or Ilelealler e,pressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield Harvev laOOIl Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an investment adVisor may give advice to 115 Investment adVisory and olher customers mdependenlly 01 any statements made In thiS 01 In any other Issue Further Information on any secunly mentioned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 08, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 08, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - February 08, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 February 8, 1985 – Lt-.weeksaw–continuation …ofthe–pattern-whi-ch has-characterized.,….1985-so-far'—market—- strength approaching the level of awesome but obscured by largely desultory performance on the part of the Dow-Jones Industrials, That venerable indicator finally managed to post a newall-time high on Janury 29, but subsequently dropped back and has been unable to equal that high since, while most other indicators salled merrily along to new peaks, The following table, covering the period from January 7 through yesterday gives some of the flavor of what has been going on, Days Up Days Down – Change Dow-Jones Industrials 12 12 8.87 Dow-Jones Transportation 20 4 13.23 Dow-Jones Utilities 18 6 2,87 S & P 500 17 7 11. 08 OTC Industrials 22 2 19.90 Advances vs. Declines 23 1 Up Volume vs, Down Volume 21 3 While the Dow has advanced on only half of the 24 trading days since early January, most of the other averages have chalked up substantial pluralities of advancing days, led by the OTC Industrial Index which has been down only twice, We have noted the extraordinary action of breadth in past letters, The actIOn of upside volume versus downside volume is also worth noting. Upside activity has exceeded downside on 21 of the past 24 days, and, for the 23 days ended Wednesday, upside volume was 1,687 billion shares versus 935 million shares on the down- side, The ratio of upside to downside volume for the period was thus in excess of 1. 8, a relative- ly rare phenomenon that has occurred in only 14 periods since these statistics were first compiled in 1964, By and large, through 1976, such a ratio tended to appear in the advanced stages of a pr9trJl.ct.e1iJ4;.e…SQIll.ething whiu!,-,,eaders are aware, fits in with our current market scenario-,–. I More recently, this sort of thing has tended to occur in the initial stages of fairly important up- swings, and this has, indeed, been the case with the last five occurrences. A comparable excess of upside volume took place in April-May, 1978, shortly after the bear-market bottom in February- March, and a follow up occurred in August of that year. The next two occurrences were in Sep- tember, 1982, in the take-off stage of the current bull market, and on the second major rally in that bull market in November, 1982. The last case was August, 1984 with consequences that are well known. Also apparent in the table above is some evidence of changing market leadership. Not only have the Dow Industrials lagged, but the UtIlities, possibly the star performers of 1984, are up less than 3 from early January. Meanwhile, the Over-the-Counter sector, a virtual disaster area for a year and a half, has suddenly sprung into the limelight, with an advance in the OTC Industrial Index better than twice that of the Dow. There is nothing unusual about this if one takes a long enough view of history. Sterling performance on the part of high-risk equities is, typically, characteristIc of the mIdd1e-to-1ate stages of a bull market. Generally, such issues lag in the early stages, while nervousness persists. Toward the end, breadth narrows, and, while a few outstanding performances remain, large numbers of speculative stocks tend to fall by the wayside. The initial stages of the 1982-198 bull market were an exception in their spectacular rise in the OTC-High Technology area. All this may be saymg something to risk-averse investors, who have had the best of all possible worlds for a year and a half. Conservative equity issues over that period significantly outperformed the general market, and portfolios comprised of such issues produced worthwhile capi- tal gains. For the truly conservatIve, the bond market offered historically high yields, coupled wIth a generally rismg trend, While all this was going on, speculators on the long side were, by and large, being decimated. This happy state of affairs for the widow-and-orphan class may well be over. Exceptional returns from here on out may well depend on a willingness to accept risk. For those unwilling to do so, the remaining lifespan of the bull market should produce satisfactory results, but outperformance will probably once again become the province of the speculator. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1287.10 S & P Composite (12 00 p, m. ) 181. 92 CumulatIVe 'Index (2/7/85) 2383.99 NO statement or expreSSion of opmlon or My other matter herein contained IS, or IS \0 be deemed to be dlfccllyor Indirectly, an o1!er or the solicitation 01 an ofler to buyer sell any secunly referred loor mentioned The matter IS prrlsanted merely 101 the convemence of the subscriber White we behee the sources of our mforma\lon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee Ihe accuracy thereof nor of Ihe statements made herem Any action 10 be taken by the SUbSCflber should be based on hiS own Inestlgatlon and mformaiion Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and Its oilicers or emplovees, may now have, or may later take, pOSitions or trades In respect 10 any securities mentioned In this or any future Issue, and such positron may be dllferent Irom any views now or hereafter epressed In this or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered with the SEC as an Investment adlsor, may give advice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any securrty mentioned herem IS available on reQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 15, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 15, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - February 15, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 924-9660 ' February 15, 1985 -. Thestock -market's apparefftinfatuation -with–round–numbers-manifested-itself–oncemore- at -.,.,. .. the end of this week. as the venerable Dow approached, for the first time, the 1300 level. Twice, the ancient indicator pulled back and refused to close above that figure, the first time after a 20point Wednesday advance, in which 1304.66 was reached on an intra-day basis, but where the close. although a newall-time hIgh, remained below 1300, at 1297.92. Thursday's trading saw another attempt at penetration in the morning, but late weakness brought a ten-point retreat. The market strength which has characterized 1985 to date has engendered the usual discussion regarding the possibility of a correction. There is no particular rational reason why thlS should be so, any more than there is a reason why the market should tend to hesitate when the DJIA approaches a figure WhICh ends m two zeros. Nonetheless, the tendency exists. We can re- call that. from the first occasion we were allowed to speak to clients. many long years ago. we spent a good deal of time trying to assure those clients that protracted periods of strength did not necessarily signal the imminence of weakness that would allow them to buy stock at prices of which they had not taken advantage earher. Nonetheless. it appears appropriate at this stage to try to assess Just what current downside possibilities, if any, might be. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average. with its hesItation around 1300. (it also dropped off from an intra-day hIgh of 1305.10 on January 30) does, at the moment, possess a potential top. That top would suggest the possibility of a downside objective somewhere in the 1260-1240 area. This level, in turn is just above the broad-base formation from which the average took off in early December. However, it must be emphasized, the top remains only a potential one. For it to become real, a downside penetration to 1270 would have to take place. The implication would be cancelled were the aerage able to muster strength and finally work its way to significantly above 1300. What must further be emphasized is the fact that this potential configuration exists only for the Dow itself, the notable weak SIster of the entire advance. None of the broad-based averages, such I-a'sme-S-&-P-SOO 01 tIle N'Y-s-E–Gomposite-,–haveryetl'l'0dced-comparable-so-tsoftapJoI'nlations. To take the lower fIgure given above, 1240 would hardly be a disaster. With the Dow now around the 1300 level, large point moves are coming to have less and less significance. and 13 points. once enough to stimulate headlines, now constitutes only 1. A move to 1240 would mean a correction of less than 5. This, admittedly, would be larger than any we have seen recently. The advance from the December 7th low, at 1163.21. to Wednesday's close was 11. 58 over 46 trading days. There have been. over those 9 weeks. only three corrective phases. two just over 1 and the largest being the three-day drop from year-end to January 4th of 2.2. This strength is admittedly impressive, but it is not without historical precedent. In contrast with the 46-day advance so far, there are, on record, at least four prevIOUS cases where the market has been able to advance for over 100 trading days without a single correction as great as the 2.20 seen m early January. It did so from January to June, 1950, from September, 1953 to June, 1954. from April to November. 1958, and from November, 1963 to May, 1964. Furthermore, the current 11.58 rise, with nothing bigger than a 2.2 correction. has been eclipsed by the advances mentioned above plus no fewer than 11 other cases where an uncorrected rise extended to 15 or more. the largest on record being an almost29 move in 1958. If one uses a larger filter, say 5, to identify corrections. it is possible to fmd large portions of past bull markets, in many cases continuing for well over a year, before sudiacorrection was seen. Again, in 1957-1959. the Dow advanced 60, over 410 trading days or 20 months, with- out a 5 interruption. The terminal phase of that bull market .fullowing an intermediate- term correction not unllke the one which ended in November of last year, produced a 14-month, 30 advance without a downswing of as much as 5. None of the above is intended, necessarily, to forecast similar strength, but simply to indicate that such strength would not be implausible. Certainly, it would be possible for the current top in the Dow to broaden, along with formation of similar tops in other averages. If such an eventuality takes place, suggesting a downswing of worthwhile proportions, we would hope to be able to identify it. The point is. however, that it has not yet taken place at this writing. This being the case, there exists nothing in the historical record to suggest that the recent salutary market environment cannot continue to exist for a great many more months. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (2/14/85) 1290.53 182.45 2414.79 t Jo statement or cpfesslon of opmlon Of any other matter herein contained IS or IS to be deemed 10 be directly or Indlrectt!, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer 10 buy or sell any security referred tOOl mentioned The mal1cr ts presenlOd merety for Ihe convenience a! thesubSCrrber While we believe the sources of our Information 10 be rellabte, we In no way represent orguaral\lee the accuracy thereof nor of Ille statements made herem An) action to be taken by the subSCriber Should be based on hiS own Investlgallon and mlormatlon Defafleld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation lind 115 officers or employeeS may now have or may later tahe, posl1\ons or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS Of any lutule Issue, and such pOSItion may be dllfcrenl from anyvlflws now or hmeatter epressed m thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey Tabelt Inc which IS regtstered Wllh the SEC as an Investment adVisor may give adVice to rls Invcstment adVisory and othor customf'ls Independently of any slal'-Jments made rnlhls or In any other Issue Further Information on an security mentioned herein IS avallabte on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 22, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 22, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - February 22, 1985
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,———————————————————————– – – – – – TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 February 22, 1985 H A. ro!!10t.'J9-o-oL g!.ark..ekt'QJ!l1.!uq-e..!o J.y st ,iJm,-ce ,he Iow !.ahe E .lltime.-J;ling – hIgh of 129792 on February 13. The average dropped off to a closmg low of -1279.03 on -Thursaay and declmes actually exceeded advances for three consecutive days. Volume generally dried up as the market pulled back dropping below 100 million shares on Tuesday for the first tIme since early January. We have pomted out, in recent weeks, that the current rallymg phase from early December has. for the first time. featured action 1n the over-the counter market. While the major averages were ad- VaIIClng some 11. the aTe Industrial Index moved from 250.2 In mId-December to a hIgh of 312.4 last week, an almost 25 advance. It is perhaps worthwhile putting thIS phenomenon in longer-term perspective, which we try to do in the chart below. It shows the monthly average price for the Dow Industrials since October. 1973 and. underneath thIS, the ratio of OTC volume to NYSE volume and the raho of the NASDAQ OTC Industrial Index to the Dow. DOw JONES INDUSTRIQL RVERRGE OTC VOLUME / NYSc VGLUME OTC INDUSTRIRLS / DJIR INDuSTRIRLS – – —–I– ro BasIcally. In the period from 1973 to mid-1977. OTC performance was almost Identical to that of the Dow, with the NASDAQ Index generally tradmg at around 10 of the Dow figure. Beginning in 1977, a long steady Improvement set In. Although there were short interruptions in 1978 and 1980 and a protracted flattening of the relatIve strength curve in 1981-1982, by June. 1983. the monthly average price for the NASDAQ Index had reached 32 of the comparable figure for the Dow, Over the ten-year period. the Dow increase was 48 whIle the OTe average rose 310. Much of thIS gain has been given up in the past year and a half. By December, 1984. with the Dow about the same as a year earlier. the DTC indicator had dechned to 21 of the Dow figure. It had not been this low since early 1980 and was lower than It had been at the start of the bull market in August, 1982. The recent recovery has taken it to around the 24 level. What IS perhaps most interestIng IS the rlse In vQlume. For February. through thIS week, OTC volume has amounted to approximately 78 of NY SE tradmg. This. If It holds, v.nIl be the fourth highest monthly fIgure on record. and IS close to the peak levels of June and July, 1983. Quite obviously, based on the hIstory of the past fIve years at least. Over-the-Counter issues appear to be on the low end of theIr valuatIOn range relatIve to the Dow. The volume shown on the recent rise, moreover. suggests that they may be once more attractIng investor interest. It IS for thIS reason that we have been suggestIng that secondary and tertiary stocks may contInue to outperform the market over the short term. While this speculatIve phase might not be terrIbly long-hved. it could. however. be quite dynamIc. AWT'rs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P CompOSite (12'00 p.m.) Cumulahve Index (2/21/85) 1280.92 180.00 2400.55 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY, TABELL INC, NO stalement Of epreSSlon 01 opll\lon or anv other maller herem contained IS Of IS 10 be deemed 10 be dlfect1f or indirectly an offer or Ihe soliCItation 01 an olfer 10 buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter is presented merely lor the convenience 01 the subSCriber While we believe the sources 01 our Inlormatlon to be relrable we In no way represent or guaranlee Ihe accuracy Ihereof nor 01 the statements made herem Any action to be taen bylhe subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and mlormatlon Oelalleld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have or may later take posillons or trades In respect to any securities mentioned m thiS Of any future Issue, and such POSition may be dliferenllrom any views n.ow 01 hClealler epressed In Ihls or any other Issue Oelalleld, Harvey Tabell Inc v'hlch IS registered With the SEC as an mveSlment adVISor, may give advice to liS mvestm'3nt adVisory and other customers Independently 01 any statements made m thiS or In any other ISSue Further mlormatlon on any security mentioned herem IS available on reQuost

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 01, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 01, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - March 01, 1985
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———— —- TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 March 1, 1985 The weather in the northeast over the past week could almost have served as a metaphor for the current stock21ke!.. T!tec! !r9J!gE,.! February—t-El.E!!.!Juz;. rof (YEIT'UL.p.!3.zres , an9-. i' when we ,reverted , later on -in Hie weeK. to-.cfuite pleasant'out-more-normal winter-weather, one felt a Sense of disappointment. Similarly, there is certainly nothing all that bad about the way the stock market has behaved over the past two weeks. True, declining stocks have outnumbered advancing ones on seven of the last ten tradmg' days, but not by huge amounts. The DJIA, from February 13th through February 22nd, is off a 1. 7 closing basis. Most recently, 50-80 new highs have been chalked up daily, suffering only by comparison with the well-over-100 new peaks which were the general rule throughout January and early February. As we indicated here two weeks ago, however, all of this action has produced at least a potential top formation, and it seems appropriate at this stage to examine it in a bit more detail. The chart at the left is a 2-point-unit, point-and-figure chart of the Dow. As our readers are aware, such a chart is not time-based, but simply traces each fluctuation of two points or more in the price. The chart's starting point is the November low, and it shows the rally from that point, the interruption in late December-early January, the sharp January-February rise, and the horizontal trading range that has characterized February's second half. It is this trading range, at the upper right of the chart, that is deserving of analysis. It lies, for the most part, between 1272 and 1304, with a downside breakout at 1270–a breakout which may well be a false one, since, after its occurrence at m .. 1.Monp.ay,jL…was……a.lmost..immediately….xeversed . A principal of point-and-figure work is that the width of a given trading range is related to the extent of a subsequent upward or downward move. There are two places at which one can measure the width of the top in question, one across 1288, another across 1280. Projecting these two widths downward leads to downside projections of 1248 and 1230. The chart below is similar, but shows 5-point, rather than 2-pomt, fluctuations and covers a longer period, from mid-1984. The potential top also appears on this chart and, measured similarly, mOliOlillllllytriaedldisngdothwantsitdoeoktaprglaectes doufr1in2g35l-a1t2e201.984W,hat this chart also shows. however is the generally in the range of 1160-1240. In technical terms 1 this entire area consti- tutes support, an area at which there exists proven demand, evidenced by the market's ability to hold in this range for as long as it did. Short-term declines have a tendency to stop short of such support, making the downside objectives cited above eminently logical. The point is that, even should the current formation turn out to be a top, as would be evidenced by a volume penetration of the 1270 level, the downside risk at the moment is not all that great. It still remains entirely possible. moreover, that 1270 will hold and the advance will continue, having completed its corrective process with nothing more than a consolidation. For the long-term investor, therefore, deferring purchases in anticipation of a significant correction could prove costly. AWTjt Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S&P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (2/28'/85) 1293.07 182.62 2389.91 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. No statement Of 131preSSlon 01 oplnlOO Of any other mailer herem contained IS Of IS to be deemed \0 be, dIrectly or Indlreclly, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any seCUf!ty ret erred to or mentioned The mailer IS prcsented merely for the convenmnccof the subscnbor While we believe the sources of our information 10 be reliable, we In noway represent or guarantee the accuraCy tllercot nor of ttm slllements made tier em Any action to be taken by the subscf!ber should be blsed on hiS own investigation and information Delafmld, Harvey, Tabell Inc as a COrporation and Its officers or employees may now have, or may tater lae poSitions or trades !f) respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any lulure ISSue, and such pOSition may be dillereni from any views nowor hereafter exprcssod!f) thiS or any othor Issue Dolaflctd Harvey Tabelt Inc whiCh IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may gIve adviCe to Its lflvestment adVISOry and other customers mdependently of any statements made In this or In any other Issue Further mformatlOn on any secuflty mentioned herem Is available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 08, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 08, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - March 08, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 – March 8, 1985 – – —Aveteran airline pilot once-described-artranscontinental' flight'assix- hours-ofboredom .-beginning and ending with two minutes of sheer terror He was -referring, of course, to the fact that a plane's natural element is the air, and, once it has arrived in that element, the process of flying it tends to become pretty routine, It is the transitions to and from that natural element, the landing and takeoff, which are difficult and exciting. The stock market, at least as far as the two-and-a-half year history of the current bull market is concerned, seems to have developed some characteristics similar to that of the airplane. Basically, that history seems to reveal a number of short and abrupt takeoffs, interspersed with long periods of boredom during which the market has done nothing or trended lower. Since there exists some evidence that we may now be entering into another one of these periods, it is perhaps worth looking at that history in a bit of detail. The current bull market began, as we all know, on August 12, 1982,with the DJIA at 776.92. Fifty-eight trading days later, on November 3, it was at 1065.49, an advance of 37. Roughly annualized, this works out to a rise at an annual rate of 290, and, as we remarked at the time, it qualified as one of the steeper protracted advances in market history. There then followed a rather short hiatus of five weeks, during which the average moved below 1000 for the last time, reaching 990.25 on December 16. The next 126 trading days saw a 26 advance, to 1248.30 on June 16, 1983. This worked out to an annualized rate of 58. A series of new highs were lateLllosJ.ed in…,Jhe summer and fall 0L19.83 ….butthe-hesLof. them, on November 29 at 1287.20, was not all that different from the june peak. The first half of 1984, as we recall, was spent in a corrective phase, which bottomed at 1086.57 on July 24. That sideways move and subsequent correction occupied 279 long trading lays. Then, in yet another eruption, the Dow spurted 14, from 1086.57 on July 24, 1984 to 1239.73 on August 21. The shortness of this rise, only 20 trading days, produced an astounding annualized rate of increase Qf 320.. Three more months of lethargy ensued, in which the Dow, on four separate occasions, dropped just under the 1200 level. finally reaching a low of 1163.21 on December 7. This process occupied 76 days. Followin g this, there occurred the fourth, and most recent, takeoff phase, a move of only 11, but one which, since it was only 35 trading days long, produced an annualized rate-of-increase of 112. It reached a high at 1292.62 on January 29 of this year. Action since that time has had some of the elements of late 1983. Two separate highs above the January 29 figure have been chalked up on the Dow, on February 13 and again on March I, but neither has been significantly better than the first. The low, to date, has been around 1270, producing the potential top formation we discussed at length in last week's letter. This process has lasted some five weeks so far, and both the Dow and the S & P 500 find themselves, at the moment, at levels not too different from those attained in late January and early February. The four rising phases mentioned above comprise a total of 239 trading days or only 36 of the 649 total days in the bull market so far. If we go back to mid1983, the two advancing phases in that long process of decline and recovery have occupied only 55 out of 435 trading days or some 13. The point is that, although the market is appreciably higher than it was 21 months ago, it has spent 87 of that 21-month period declining or doing nothing. This tendency toward instantaneous price adjustment appears more pronounced in the current bull market than has been the case in the past. We will attempt to document this point and possible reasons for it in future studies. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1272.64 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 179.26 Cumulative Index (3/7/85) 2377.17 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No slatllmenl or e/presslon of opinion or any other ml'lltcr herOin contained 15. or IS 10 be deemed to be dlrec1lyor mdmClly, an offer 01 the sohcllaUOfI 01 an oflcr to buy or sell any security referred loor mentioned The m(lltf'r rs presented merely 101 the con..enll'lfIce ollhe subscriber While we believe the seurces of our Information to be reliable we rn no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 Ihe statemC!nlS made herem Any acllon 10 be taen by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Informallon Delafield, Harvev, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and Its ol1lcers or emplovees may new M.ve or may tater take, positions or trades In respect 10 any securrlles mentioned m Ihls or any future Issue, and such position may be dlHerent Irom any views now or herea1ter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delaheld, Harvey labell Inc which Isreglslered With Ihe SECas an Investment adVisor, may give advice to Its Ifwestment adVISOry and othe' customers mdependently of any statements made m thiS Of In any other Issue Further mlormallon on any secuflty mentioned herem IS available on request

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