TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE August 1, 1980 The stock market advance proceeded in satisfactory fashion this week, with the Dow attaining a new cJos- on .Wednesday.. Somewber.e ,the ad5ance m!!y.laye .lost '!!pass.eDge.!, namely oil industry group whose comPonents have lieerlfeaders during mosf-cifthe 197980-market 'strength 10/3/79 11/7/79 2113/80 3/26/80 7/23/80 7/30/80 DJIA Change S & P 500 Change International Oils Change Ratio to S & P Domestic Oils Change Ratio to S & P Crude Producers Change Ratio to S & P 885.15 109.59 195.02 1. 78 245.3 2.24 455.9 4.16 796.67 -10.0 99.87 – 8.9 183.52 – 5.9 1. 83 239.3 – 2.4 2.40 445.0 – 2.4 4.46 903.84 l3.5 118.44 18.6 233.99 27.5 1. 98 345.5 44.3 2.92 603.7 35.7 5.10 762.12 -15.7 98.68 -16.7 199.63 -14.7 2.02 277.4 -19.7 2.81 470.5 -22.0 4.77 928.58 21. 8 121. 93 23.6 252.85 36.6 2.07 299.4 7.9 2.46 654.7 39.1 5.37 936.18 0.8 122.23 0.2 242.57 – 4.1 1. 98 286.3 – 4.4 2.34 639.1 – 2.4 5.23 The above table shows the Dow, S & P 500, and three major oil industry indices at selected dates since last October. It clearly documents the relative strength of the oils last fall and early this year. All three oil indices declined less than the broader averages in October-November, and advanced by considerably greater amounts on the February rise. In March, however, some weakness set in. Domestic oils and pro- ducers declined by more than did the Dow or the S & P, and the drop in international oils was about the same. On the rise through July 23, domestic oils participated hardly at all, and the rise in the other two was not spectacular. Last week's action showed fairly sharp declines in all three oil indicat9rs as the major averages movea ahead. . — .0 – – -' The table below shows some relevant technical statistics for major international and domestic oil stocks. It documents the fact that 10 of the 15 stocks shown have, so far, been unable to move above their highs of early 1980, and also shows that, at this week's lows, most stocks had moved off fairly sharply from their re- cent highs. Moreover, in the past fortnight, most issues have formed tops or potential tops. Where these exist, the downside objectives of those tops are shown in the table together with the downside breakout point if such a breakout has not already occurred. Early 1980 Spring 1980 High Low Recent High Recent Low Breakout Downside Objective Exxon 67 55 72 69 Gulf Oil 54 35 45 39 38 Mobil Oil 89 57 80 73 70 60 Royal Dutch 92 67 92 87 Standard Oil, Calif. 85 62 81 73 66 Texaco 41 30 39 36 35 32 Atlantic Richfield 53 41 49 42 38 Cities Service 37 29 39 32 30 Conoco 58 41 59 52 48 46 Getty 97 66 90 81 78 68 Phillips 61 38 51 40 38 Shell 38 28 40 34 32 Standard Oil, Ind. 60 46 65 57 Cc 54 48 Sun Co. 45 31 40 37 Union Oil 62 45 61 55 52 45 The point that must be noted is that the tops, so far, are small, and in most cases, existing patterns do not suggest objectives below the lows of last spring. Thus, the worst that can be inferred about oil issues at the moment is that they may continue to show weaker relative action than they did in early 19791980. Were the tops to broaden, however, and large numbers of oil issues penetrate their spring 1980 lows, the technical implications could be a good bit more serious. It must be recalled, for example, that oil and oilrelated issues comprise almost a quarter of the S & P 500. Weakness in this area, therefore, could constitute a heavy drag on the performance of the general market. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) S & P Composite (12 00 PM) Cumulative Index (7/31/80) 932.59 121.11 932.18 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWTsla No statement or expression of op'nion or ony other maHer herein contolned 1, or IS 10 be deemed to be. directly or indirectly, an offer or the sol,cllol.on of on offer to bvy or sell any secunty referred to or mentrcned The metier IS presented merely fa/ the converlence of the subscriber While we believe Ihe sources of our Information to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarontee the accuracy thereof nor af the statements mode herein Any action to be tolren by the ubscrlber &hould be based on hiS own Investlgotlon and Information Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, as a corpo'atlon, and Its officers or employees, moy now have, or may later toke, POiltlonl or trades In respect to any seCurities mentioned In thiS or any fulure Issue, and such position moy be different from any views now or hereafter e,.pressed In thl' or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With Ihe SEC as on Investment adVisor, moy give odvlce to liS Investment adVisory and othet customers independently of any statements mode in Ihll or In any other Issue Further Information on any security menlloned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – – .. — — — Paradoxically, stock market action of the sort displayed last week makes us feel old, reminding us that our stock market career extends back to the dear, dead days of the 1950's and 1960's. As always appears to be the case in reminiscence, it was a better and a simpler time. Many of the trappings of today's financial markets were as yet uninvented, or at least, undiscovered. Options, exchange-traded ones at least, were nonexistent. Modern portfolio theory was unheard of, and beta was still a college fraternity. This, at least, had the advantage of not requiring a graduate degree in mathematics for successful portfolio management. The most complex mathematical skill required in those days was the calculation of compound growth rates, which could then be projected indefinitely into the future. Another attraction of that bygone era, at least to one whose professional expertise centers around common-stock analysis, is the absence — or so it seems — of alternative investment media. Gold remained the exclusive province of croaking prophets of gloom and doom to whom no one paid much attention. Commodity trading went on unnoticed in dusty tombs, located in lowrent areas on the fringes of the financial district. The noun collectible had not yet been invented, and most people thought of their homes in terms of shelter rather than annual price appreciation. Investmentwise, (Come to think of it, we don't think the suffix -wise had been invented then, either.) the stock market was the place to be. Ttiere eXlstedthen, tliosEi' with-long memories will recall, a breed Of money managers tionately known as gunslingers, whose function consisted of charging inordinate fees for making investors richer than they deserved to be. This even worked for a few years, until sanity, painfully in the case of a good many clients, returned, and it was discovered that the Midas touch was a good deal less prevalent on Wall Street than many had thought. At any rate, one of our friends among this crew had the habit, when the tape was clattering away merrily, to exclaim to all who would listen, Nobody should have any cash except for subway tokens. A faint — a very faint — whiff of this sort of flavor could be detected in the stock market of last week. We know now, of course, that the era referred to above, like all speculative bubbles, came to its inevitable denouement over the past decade. Our thinking about the stock market inevitably tends to be colored by recent events rather than earlier ones, and, as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average moves toward the 1000 level for the umpteenth time, it is difficult not to view the advance with a certain degree of skepticism. This skeptiCism is particularly engendered by the atmosphere of the past two years, during which, three advances, not unlike the one from this spring, were quickly and surprisingly aborted by almost complete retracement. In the light of this sort of recent history, it is perhaps useful, as we have tried to do above, to remind ourselves that nothing is permanent, and there was, in fact, another time when the market behaved differently. Certainly, at some stage, there will take place a stock – market rise which will not find itself quickly turned back after what, by historical standards, is a rather paltry advance. We have spent the last decade, in this letter, speculating on just when such an event might happen. We intend to continue to address the question. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) 959.47 S & P Composite (12 00 PM) 124.31 Cumulative Index (8/7/80) 952.06 AWT sla ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or C)(prenlOn of opinion or ony olner motter herein contOlned IS, or Il 10 be deemed 10 he, directly or indirectly, on offer or the 501lCIIotion of on offer to buy or sell ony secunty referred to or mentioned The molter 1 presented merely for the converlena of the subscriber While we believe Ihe sources of our mforma hon 10 be reliable, we III no way represent or guarantee thC! accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any OChon to be token by the subscriber shOuld be based on hiS own Investlgotlon and Information Janney Montqomery Scott, Inc, as a oorporC/lorT, and liS offICers or employees, may now have, cr may latcr toke, positions or trades In respect to any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future usue, ond such POSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In this or ony other Issue. Jonney Montgomery Scott, In(, whICh IS registered With Ihe SEC as an Irwestmenl adVisor, moy give adVice to lIS 1Ilves!menl adVISOry and other cvlfomers Independently of any Slotements mode In thiS or rn any other Issue Further Information on onv securrty mentioned herem IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VOAK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE August 15, 1980 '-The atwariance-with 'rest 'of the financial-com- munity on a -number of basic propositions. 'There eXists, for example';- conventional wisdom which states that a market which has moved up sharply is, precisely because of this fact, vulnerable and in need of a correction. The technician, by and large, would argue that market strength is a healthy condition which is more likely than not to continue. The strength of the past four months has some claim to uniqueness. The Dow has moved up 27 over 78 trading days, through August 11, with the largest correction during that period being 2.21 . The only instance of a steeper rally in almost 40 years is the 36 move which took place over just 68 trading days between December, 1974 and March, 1975. In an effort to establish a benchmark for pre- vious rallies to compare with the present one, we have identified in the table below all rallies since 1942 which have continued for 78 days or more without a 5 correction or which have advanced more than 27. There are 22 such instances. Starting Date DJIA High After 78 Dals Subsequent Advance High No. of Days Later Advance From First High – Apr 28, 1942 Nov 30, 1943 Sep 14, 1944 Mar 26, 1945 Jun 13, 1949 Jul 13, 1950 Dec 4, 1950 1Mar 14, 1955 Feb 12, 1957 Dec 17, 1957 Oct 25, 1960 Oct 23, 1962 Nov 22, 1963 Jun 28, 1965 Oct 7, 1966 Jun 5, 1967 Jul 7, 1970 Nov 23, 1971 Dec 6, 1974 Oct I, 1975 Jun I, 1979 Apr 21, 1980 92.92 129.57 142.96 152.27 161. 60 197.44 222.33 2.5,5.-12 391. 36 454.82 425.65 566.05 558.06 711.49 840.59 744.32 847.77 669.36 797.97 577.60 784.16 821. 21 759.13 108.91 139.65 152.53 169.08 183.29 231. 81 255.71 284.19 459.42 506.04 458.65 653.62 684.86 820.25 945.84 849.89 943.08 783.68 959.18 786.53 949.86 893.94 964.08 17.2 7.0 6.7 11. 0 13.4 17.4 15.0 11. 2 17.4 11. 3 17.8 15.5 22.7 15.3 12.5 14.2 11. 2 17.1 19.1 36.1 21.1 8.9 27.0 145.82 150.50 161. 52 206.97 228.38 235.47 263.13 408.89 487.45 520.77 678.10 734.91 726.96 938.23 995.10 909.63 943.08 950.82 971. 25 786.53 I, OIl. 02 897.61 287 33.9 106 7.8 63 5.9 166 22.4 204 24.6 20 1.6 45 2.9 248 43.9 57 6.1 26 2.9 332 47.9 206 12.4 73 6.1 292 14.6 79 5.3 67 7.0 127 21.3 51 2.2 62 6.4 10 0.4 The first three columns in the table above show the Dow at the start of each of the 22 rallies, the high it had reached after 78 trading days, and the percentage advance to that high. The next column, which is the crux of the table, shows the subsequent high reached before a correction of 5 took place. The last two columns show the number of days the Dow continued to advance, uncorrected by 5, and the percentage advance at the subsequent high from the high which had been reached after 78 days. As the table shows, there are numerous instances where rallies comparable to the present one have taken place, and where the index continued to advance for periods of as much as a year with percentage increases in excess of 20. It must also be emphasized that the figure in the column ('ntitled Subsequent High refers only to the high reached before a 5 correction took place. In most instances, that correction was mild, and the following advance took the market to new highs, often by substantial amounts. It is also worth noting that every period in the past 38 years that we have come to identify as a major bull market began with a rally meeting the criteria suggested above. This included the markets of 1942-1953, 1953-1956, 1957-1961, 1962-1966, 1968-1972, and 1974-1976. The record would suggest, in other words, that the sharp market strength since last April, rather than indbating that the averages are vulnerable to a serious correction, leads, based on the historical record, to precisely the opposite conclusion. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 PM) S & P Composite (12 00 PM) Cumulative Index (8/14/80) 963.99 125.50 968.48 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWTsla No stalement or expression of opinion or any olner molter herein contolned 'S, or IS to be deemed to be, d'redly or Indorectly, on offer or the 50lu;llollon of of offer hto buy or sell any secvrlty referred 10 or mentIOned The mottcr IS presented merely for Ihe converlence of the subscriber While oNe believe the wurces ofbour n hon to be relloble we III no woy represent or guarontee the accurocy thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any octlon to be taken by the svbscfl er s au e based on hiS own'mvcstlga!ion and Information JonnC!y Montgomery SCali, Inc, as a corporation, ond Its officers or employees, may naw hove, or may later tdke. positions Of trades In respect to any seeuntles mentioned Ir' thiS or ony future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hefeaJter expredse hln thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Seolt, In.c, which IS registered with the SEC as on mvestmerlt adVISor, may give adVice to !IS Invedment a vlSoryan at el customers Independently of any stalemel'llS mode 1M thiS or In any olher Issue Further information on ony security mentioned herem IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCI( eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCk eXCHANGE – August 22, 1980 Technical colleagues whose view of Jess than sanlWine have drawn cattention to the action of market breadth indicators; pOintingouf the'existence of a breadth divergence-and adduc- ing from the existence of this phenomenon a significant degree of vulnerability for the stock market. This view is not without merit. Breadth action does, in fact, raise questions, and those questions must be dealt with if one is to do a cnmprehensive job of formulating a forecast. Breadth statistics (advances and declines) have been studied for many years, and the conventional analysis is well documented. It involves the construction of a breadth index, based on advancing and de- clining stocks, which, in a healthy market rise, is supposed to confirm new highs in the averages by itself achieving new highs. Failure to do so is considered a sign of potential market weakness. Such a classical divergence is documented on lines 2 and 4 of the table below, which shows highs and lows at selected points since 1974 in the Dow, the S & P 500, and our own daily breadth index. As the table shows, both the Dow and S & P achieved new highs in April, 1976 with breadth having peaked out two months before in February. After a decline into June, the subsequent rally took both averages to new highs by significant amounts, but breadth failed to achieve a new high. This constituted the classical sort of bear market signal'BREADTH DATE DJIA DATE S & P 500 DATE INDEX 1. Low 12/06/74 577.60 2. High 04/21/76 1,011.02 3. Low 06/09/76 958.09 4. High 09/21/76 1,014.79 5. Low 11/10176 974.04 6. High 12/31/76 1,004.65 7. Low 02/28/78 742.12 8. High 09/11/78 907.74 – –9—.-f;ow——-11-1 10. High 10/05/79 897.61 11. Low 11/07/79 796.67 12. High 02/13/80 903.S4 13. Low 04/21/80 759.13 14. High OS/15/80 966.72 10/03/74 62.28 04/05/76 103.51 06/07/76 98.63 09/21/76 107.83 11/10/76 98.87 07/19/77 101. 79 03.06/78 86.90 09/12/78 106.99 1-11-1-4-17-8- -92749 10/05/79 111.27 11/07/79 99.S7 02/13/S0 11S.44 03/27/80 9S.22 08/15/80 125.72 12/06/74 02/24/76 06/02/76 09/22/76 11/10/76 07/22/77 03/06/78 09/11/78 08/31/79 11/07/79 01/28/S0 03/27/S0 08/15/80 997.68 1,092.36 1,074.23 1,091. 39 1,079.62 1,106.76 1,083.86 1,121.14 l,098.9S 1,044.12 1,067.09 1,009.74 1,065.41 A bear market did, indeed, ensue. The Dow declined from Over 1000 to 742 and the S & P from 101 to under 87 as shown at line 7. However, breadth behavior was strange and unprecedented. Breadth reached new highs in July, 1977 (line 6) despite total failure on the part of either average to approach its old high on that rally. Although the averages collapsed in the fall of 1977 and the spring of 1975, the decline in the breadth index was minor and the first leg of the subsequent rise, shown on lines 7 and S in the table, brought breadth to a level which constitutes its high to date, despite the fact that the related highs for the averages were considerably lower than peaks reached subsequently. Lines 9 and 10 of the table show the Halloween Massacre which reached its low in mid-November, 1975, and the subsequent rally in 1979. The Dow recovered almost all the ground lost, the S & P made a new high, but breadth conspicuously failed to do so. The decline and rally on lines 11 and 12 show the new peaks achieved in the indices early this year with breadth remaining below its peaks of late 1978 and late 1979. Yet again, on the last two lines, the phenomenon has repeated itself. The best rally of the series has taken place on the averages, carrying both to post-1978 highs and the S & P to an all-time high. The breadth index, however, has remained below no fewer than three prior peaks stretching back over a two- year period. The question is what are we to make of this. It can, of course, be construed as a divergence in the classic sense. The problem is that, as far as breadth is concerned, a sort of mini-bear market has, in fact, alredy taken place. Breadth had retreated, as of last April, almost back to its low of late 1974, correcting just about all the subsequent advance. It is, at least, conceivable that the breadth correction that never took place in 1976-78, when the averages fell sharply and breadth hela firm, finally arrived in 1978-80, when the averages performed relatively well and breadth indices collapsed. Such an interpretation is admittedly less than an obvious one, and it is certainly one open to argument. It must be supported, in our view, by reference to cycle theory, an exercise we intend to attempt in future issues. It, nonetheless, does succeed in explaining the behavior of breadth without the sort of bearish prognosis which conventional analysis would call for. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) S & P Composite (12 00 PM) Cumulative Index (8/21/80) 963.23 126.56 971. 46 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWTsla No statement or expression of opinion or any other molter herein contOlned IS, or 1 10 be deemed to be, dHecl!y or mdHec1ly, on offer or the sol'cltatlon of on offer 10 buy or sell ony scc;urlly referred 10 or mentioned The mailer Is presented merely for the conVCllencc of the subscriber Whilo we believe the sources of our informatIOn to be relloble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any action to be tolen by the subscriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporahon, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke. positions or trades In respect to ony seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Inue, and such p051lion may be different from anv views now or hereafter e)(pressed 1n thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scot!, Inc, hlCh IS f(!glstered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVIS(;Hy and othel custam(!U Independently of any statements mode In thl or In any other Issue Further ,nformation on ony security menl!oned nereln IS available on request

.;, 0-' 'TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF' MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( EXCHANGE August 29, 1980 . almost linear- upward trend that iias 'characterized it since last spring. We have had, in the-p'ast'f6rt– night, three separate rally attempts, all of which were turned back around the intraday level of 970 on the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. The last of these culminated into the decline which began at midday on Tuesday and continued through Thursday's trading, the average back to a new low at 930. Action has by no means been uniform. Each of the three rallies in question carried to new highs on the Transportation Index, and the Utility Average, which remains well below its high of a month ago, really failed to participate at all. All the drops took place. furthermore, on reduced volume, with Mon- day's trading dropping to new low levels around 35 million shares. It is difficult to observe a great deal of distribution, eitner in the averages or in individual stock patterns. It is, for example, extremely difficult to read any serious downside implications in the recent trading pattern with its 970 ceiling on the Dow. In order for any further serious vulnerability to be adduced, a broadening of the potential top would have to take place. This broadening could take one of two forms. The first possible form would be for one or more rallies to develop andto be turned back at around the 960- 970 level, action which would create a possible distributional top of some importance. The second possible source of vulnerability would be for the -tradIng rarige of the past fortnight to turn out to be the head portion of a head-and-shoulders top formation. This would require a continued decline to around the levels of mid-July, 920 roughly on the DJIA, further backing and falling in the area of 920-940, and an ultimate downside penetration of that range. Such a formation would provide a downside objective of moderately serious import. If must, of course, be pointed out that we are discussing above not the content Of the technical pattern to date, but a chart pattern that or might not form in the future. All of the above could, of course be cancelled which achieved new one that was ac- camp, with proof for the view yet to be forthcoming. One aspect of the past two weeks' trading has done a great deal to weaken the arguments available to the pessimists. If there existed, throughout the recent rise, one area of potential vulnerability, that vulnerability existed in the oils and oil-related securities. We discussed this at some length in our letter of August 1, pointing out these issues, which had generally outperformed the market for as much as six years, had suddenly begun to demonstrate somewhat inferior relative strength. Interest- ingly enough, the rally through August 22 took a few oil issues to newall-time highs, thus effectively destroying whatever potential tops they may have had. This sort of action has not yet occurred in any- thing approaching the majority of the group, but, were it to follow through with a fair number of the other petroleum issues, one major source of potential vulnerability would have eliminated. This would not suggest, necessarily, that oils were about to outperform the market on a short-term basis. It would simply foreclose the possibility of the sort of intermediate-term decline for oil stocks which would invariably have a depressing effect on the general market. We attempted, in our discussion of two weeks ago in this space, to point out some of the implications of the extraordinary rise of 27 on the Dow from the April 21 low. We indicated that the rise was, by most measurements, the most dynamic rally that has occurred since the lift-off rally which ended the bear market of 1972-1974, and that it had many characteristics of the initial rallies of major bull markets in the past. It is true that the very steepness of the advance makes the possibility of a slightly steeper than normal correction all the more likely. The rally in question in 1974-1975, for example, was finally interrupted, after a three-month period, by a correction of some 6 percent. The point is, however, that once this correction was past, new highs. were shortly achieved and continued to be achieved on a fairly regular basis for the better part of two years. Such, of course, may not be the case this time. We find ourselves once more in that area on the Dow-Jones Industrial Average which has turned back every important rally attempt since 1966. The market attained this level last fall and immediately re- traced the entire advance just as it has repeatedly done over the past decade. We have talked about this secular trading range since 1971, and we have been suggesting ever since that we did not expect it to continue indefinitely. In the absence of the sort of developments referred to above, developments which are, at this point, conjectural, the possibilities for an upside penetration of that secular trading range appear to be as good at the moment as they have been at any time during recent market history. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) S P Composite (1200 PM) Cumulative Index (8/28/80) 931. 06 122.20 966.56 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWTsla No statement or expressiOn of opinion or ony other motter herein contOlned IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or mdHectly, on offer or the soliCitation of on offer to bvy or Sell! ony security referred to or men honed The malter 15 presented merely for the of the Whde we belteve the of our tnforma- han to be rei table, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the stale'T1ents mode herem Any aC'ltOn to be taken by the subscrtber should be based on hIS own investIgatIon and Informollon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporatIon, and Its offICers or employees, may now hove, or may later toke, posltlon or trades In respeC'l to any SecUflhe mentIoned In thIS or any future Issue, and such POSItiOn may be dIfferent from any vIews now or hereafter expressed In thIS or any other ISsue Janney Montgomery Seoll, tnc , whteh .s regIstered w.th the SEC as on Investment odv.sar, may give adVIce 10 lIs .nvestment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statemenh mode In Ihls or In any other Issue Furlher mformolton on any securtty mentioned hereIn IS ovollable on request

-, TABELL'S MARKET … LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE September 5, 1980 – –'-0 loss-or-wliat had been obviously-unsustaim,ble 1!'0I)lentumy!,-s'note(j-in'l,ast wee!'s- letter, stock market behavior continues reasonably satisfactorily on a short-term basis. After the triple failure to move through the 970 level at mid-August, the Dow was obviously in need of some correction or consolidation. Such a correction emerged during the last week of August, with the decline from an intraday high of 969.45 on August 22 to an intraday low of 923.04 a week, ago. This correction abruptly reversed itself in last week's action, which featured a 12-point rally with over 1300 advancing stocks on Wednesday, auspicious action despite the fact that it was halted in Thursday's rumor-clouded trading. What seems to us most encouraging, from a technical point of view, is the point from which the rally began. We had commented last week that the most discouraging possible action would have been for a downward push to the 940-920 area to take place, followed by continued activity in that area. Such a formation would have produced a potential head-and-shoulders top which might have had serious downside implications. The Dow instead reacted sharply from the middle part of that range, suggesting that the next probable pattern may be a base formation with its upper limit around the mid-950's followed, possibly later this month, by another attempt to move through the 970 triple top. This scenario gains further credibility based on the action of other indicators. The Dow Transpor- tation Average, which never had formed all that much in the way of a top, attained both new closing and intraday peaks in Wednesday's and Thursday's trading. So did the American Stock Exchange Index, for which new highs have become the rule rather than the exception. The Dow Utilities which, in a market sensitive to interest rates, had reached their downside objective in early August, also moved ahead sharply on Wednesday and, like the Industrials, moved into the area of overhead supply from their earlier peak around the 115 level, a peak which, in the case of utilities, had been scored back in is the case with the industrials, another attack on — , . , !!p'2ears a likelihood. – – – —– … – — – Perhaps the most interesting technical action over the past couple of months has been shown by the various financial averages which, unlike some other indicators, retreated relatively little in the recent market weakness. The New York Stock Exchange Financial Index had held in a range between a closing low of 65.37 on June 20 and 68.21 on August 15. It was penetrated on Wednesday, with the achievement of a new peak at 68.75. The Standard & Poor's Financial Index has held in a similar lateral formation with a low around 12.80 and a high, to date, around 13.30. That high, in turn, was just about equalled this week. Continued strength in issues could provide a new major area of market leadership. ADVANCES DaIE DJIa DIEE. Meanwhile, breadth action, a cause of possible concern as discussed last week, has been AIJS 15 966.72 4.09 871 855 – 16 satisfactory throughout the entire episode. Aug A'J9 18 19 948.63 939.85 -18.09 – 8.78 217 494 268 51 458 – J6 AU9 20 945.31 5.46 917 897 – !O The table at the left shows the actual number of advancing stocks versus the normal or expected number based on the change in the Dow, AIJ9 !1 955.03 9.72 1044 1187 143 Aug !2 958.19 3.16 853 1007 154 AU9 !5 956.23 – 1.96 696 588 -108 -AIJS 26 953.41 2.82 660 694 34 -Aug 27 943.09 -lO.3! 444 432 12 AU9 28 930.38 -12.71 -AIJ9 !9 932.59 2.21 5,.,. 2 940.78 8.19 363 386 23 800 753 47 987 1049 62- s,.1' 3 953.16 12.38 1137 1355 218 -Sep 4 948.81 4.35 628 795 167 .. a concept which we have discussed in this letter in the past. As the table quite clearly indicates, the number of advancing issues on most days since the market began its decline on August 15 has been not that different from the normal value, and on at least four days, including Wednesday and Thursday, the number of advancing stocks was significantly greater than its expected normal value. Our daily breadth index, meanwhile, has moved extremely close to a penetration of its last benchmark high, achieved last January 28. In short, more evidence appears to be required before it is possible to draw unduly pessimistic conclusions from the market correction since mid-August. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) S & P Composite (1200 PM) Cumulative Index (9/4780) 946.33 125.32 993.54 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY. TABELL AWTld No statement or expreUton of opinion or any other motter herein contolned IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, dnedly or md,re,'ly, on offer or the 501ltallon of on offer to buy or Sell any SetUrl1y referred to Of mentioned The molTer IS presented merely for the convef'lencs of the subscriber While oNe believe the sourtes of our IIlforma lion to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accvtaty thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any a,tlon to be tolecn by the 5vbsctlber should be based on hIS own Investigation and ,nformat,on Janney Montgomery 5011, Inc, as a corporation, and Its offICers or employees, may now have, or may later tOKe, positions or trades In resped to any seCurities mentioned In thiS or any future lSue, and such pOSitIOn may be d,FferenJ from any views now or hereafter epressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, which Is registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVICe to Its Investment adVisory and othe! wstomers Independently of any statements mode III thiS or III any other Issue Further informatIOn on ony security mentioned herein IS available on request

. ' ' rw.. t f , TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMSER NEW YORt(. STOCl't eXCHAoNG'i., INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE September 12, 1980 ,.stock,rriarkeLmomentum.has,slowed down somewhat.- This should not be totally surprising in light of a statistic we have investigated in this space-in-tlle past, the fact that the second-most-reliable seasonal pattern in the stock market. ranked just behind the year-end rally, appears to be a tendency toward weakness during the month of September. The following table summarizes the 1004 monthly changes that have taken place in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average since it was first calculated in 1897. It shows, from left to right, the mean percentage change for each month over the past 84 years, the standard deviation (a measure of the dispersion of individual values around that mean), and the number of months in which the Dow was up or down. As the final total shows, the mean of all percentage changes was just over one half of one percent, and, over the 84 years, the Dow has posted 574 up months and 430 down months. , tlooib Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma, Jun JIJI AIJ!! Sep Nov Dec tleao 0.99 -0.47 0.66 0.82 -0.38 0.58 1. 61 1.67 -1.27 0.52 1.41 4.59 4.02 5.59 6.99 5.96 5.79 5.79 5.88 6.30 5.95 4.33 tloot.bsUe 54 39 49 46 42 42 54 57 36 4!i 49 61 tlooibsDowo 30 45 35 38 42 42 30 27 47 38 34 22 0.78 1. 57 0.25 0.51 1. 42 0.12 1. 77 1. 88 2.85 0–.-950.03 1.45 Cbl.Souae 1. 74 3.96 0.05 0.20 1.76 1. 76 1. 74 3.92 6.45 0.12 9.03 Total 0.51 5.69 574 430 The final two columns represent bits of arcana of interest only to statisticians. The two statistics, z-score and Chi-Square, are standard tests of statistical significance. Both attempt to measure the probability of attaining by chance a subset of given characteristics from a larger set of values whose properties are known, in this case the 1004 known values of monthly percent changes in the Dow. The z-test relates to mean and the Chi-Square to fixed attributes, in this case, direction — up or down. In the case of September, we have a record of 83 months with a mean change of -1. 27. In 36 Septembers, the Dow was up for the month, and in 47 it was down. The ,z.test tells us that the chances of choosing a sample of 83 with a mean of -1. 27 by pure chance from the 1004 months are considerably less than 1 in 100, and the Chi-Square figure shows the same thing with respect to choosing a sample with 36 up-and 47 down-months. The table quite clearly shows that, in terms of mean, September shows the highest degree of statistical significance of any month under study and is second only to December in terms of direction. In the light of this evidence I the recent September consolidation should be less than surprising. A couple of interesting sidelights are, perhaps, worthy of note. Part of the downward bias in September stems from its including two of the worst declines of the 1929-32 period, September, 1931, the second worst (after October, 1929) month in stock-market history, and September, 1930. -Recent Septembers have tended not to be all.that bad. The 25 best September -performances show rises ranrring from 1. 6 to 13.5. 14 of these 25 have occurred in the recent era from, 1945. By contrast, only 8 of the worst 25 Septembers are products of the most recent period. Since the market appears to be undergoing a consolidation phase, a September close in the area of the August close of 932.59, would not be an unusual occurrence. — Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) S & P Composite (12 00 PM) Cumulative Index (9/12/80) AWTsla 938.65 125.68 993.47 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or of opinion or any other molter herem conlCllned or IS to be deemed to be, dlredly or Indirectly, on offer or the 101'(lloIIOn of on offer to buy lion to or sell any secunty be relloble we m referred no way to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely represent or guorantee the accuracy thereof nor for of the Ihe converlence of the subscriber statements mude herem Any While oNe believe oc\1on 10 be toke., btyheIhseou5r1c,1bsSCorlfbeorurS 01,1 ke based on hiS own'lnvestlgotlon ond Hlformohon Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, os 0 corporation, and 115 officers or employees, moy now have, or may loler to e, posiliom or trodes In respect to ony seCUrilleS menlloned In thiS or any fulure Issue, ond such posilion may be different from ony views now or hereoJter thiS or any other Inue Janney Montgomery Scott, Ine , which IS registered With the SEC os on Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 lIs a visoryon ot er customers ,dependently of any stotemenls mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further Informollon on any seeu'lty mentioned herein IS oValo e on request

'. ,. TABELL'S MARKET – …… LETTER 909 STATE ROA.D, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORl( STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( eXCHANGE September 19, 1980 We have been noting the slowdown in market momentum following- the sharp rise of,spring–summer 1980, and there is a natural tendency to infer from this loss of momentum a degree of downside vulner– alllifty .- A'-close- analysIs of .many however; 'fails -to suPP'!. this view. Indeed-, many such indicators are behaving as they would normally tend to do in the early to middle stages of a rise. One such device is the Group Participation Index which is simply the percentage of Standard 81 Poors industry group indices expanding over a ten-month period. The history of this indicator over the past 20 years is shown in the chart below. Major market tops are indicated by the dashed, vertical lines. DJ1R I I I I I II I'S60 I'S61 l,s62 I'S63 iIS6 iIS6S iIS66 iIS67 1,968 iIS69 iI97P iI971 I'S72 iI973 iIS7 I'S75 iI976 iIm I'S78 1,979 iI980 The general pattern of behavior for this index is that it tends to rise above 90 during major ad- vances and then begin a decline well in advance of tops in the averages. By the time this decline has passed through 70, indicated by the horizontal line on the chart, a cautionary signal is indicated. This drop through 70 occurred very shortly after the market peaks of 1961, 1968, and 1976, and considerably in advance of the peaks of 1968 and 1972. In all cases the major portions of the bear markets in question took place after the index had declined through the 70 figure. The indicator's record in the sharp declines of the past couple of years is more mixed. It tended, in general, to show the same sort of action, but coincidentally with market declines rather than in advance of them. To our mind, the crucial fact about this indicator at the moment is the fact that it has been rising since April. Furthermore, a close analysis of the action of individual groups suggests that such a rise is likely to continue until at least early next spring. At that time, we will be comparing individual indices against their April lows, and everyone of the S & P group indices at the moment is above its April low . In order to suggest vulnerability, the Group Momentum Index must first complete its rise and then begin to decline. As suggested above, this sort of action is highly unlikely at any time prior to mid- 1981. Dow-Jones Industrials (1100 AM) 959.13 S 81 P Composite (11 00 AM) 128.75 Cumulative Index (9/18/80) 1016.89 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL AWTsla No slatem(lnt or expression of opinion or any other motter herein contained or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the SOllCllotlon of an offer 10 buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The moiler IS presented merely for Ihe converlence of Ihe subscflber While Ne believe the sources of our Informa- lion to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the occurocy Ihereof nor of the Slo'ements mude herein Any action 10 be Token by the Subscflber should be based on I'll! own Invesllgal10n and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and 115 offICers or employees, moy now hove, or may 'aler lake, poltlons Of 1M respect 10 any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or ony future Issue, ond such pOSITIon may be different from any views now or hereofter c-.;pressed III IhlS or ol'ly olher lSue Janney Montgomery Scali, Int. whlth IS registered With the SEC as on IOvestment adVisor, moy give adVice 10 Its Investment adVisory and olhel customers II'Idependently of any statements made 11'1 Ihls or In ony other Issue Furlher mformollon on any secunty mentioned herem IS avollable on request

———————————————————————————————————— ,—–. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER New VORK STOCK EXCHANCle, INC, MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE September 26, 1980 We occupied this space two weeks ago by engaging in one of our periodic analyses patterns in the stock market. This was occasioned by the fact that we had arrived at September, and previous studies had shown that September, statistically, tends to be the weakest month of the year insofar as the stock market is concerned. We pointed out in that letter that an analysis of 1004 monthly changes in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average showed that the mean monthly change for all Septembers since 1897 was -1. 27. This contrasted with a mean monthly plus change of just over one-half of one percent in all of the 1004 months under study. In the 83 years, September had produced an up market only 36 times and a down market 47 times. Barring major disaster in the next two days, it appears that September, 1980 will be an exception to the usual pattern, and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average will close up from its August figure of 932.59. We were curious to see if this phenomenon, an upward September, had any particular significance as far as subsequent change was concerned and, as long as we were examining September, it was relatively easy to perform the same examination for all 12 months of the year. We, therefore, undertOOk the following exercise. For each of the year's 12 months, we isolated those years since 1897 when the Dow moved up in the given month. We then analyzed the subsequent change in each of these cases for 12 different periods ranging from 1 to 12 months. The results turned out to be of some interest. An upward September, in the 36 past occasions when it has occurred, unfortunately shows little in the way of predictive significance. However, we did come up with a phenomenon of — the…YJillle of the month .of November as. a m.arket indicator. For example, there have been 49 upward Novembers since 1897. These 49 upward Novembers were followed by an upward December 35 times and by a downturn only 14 times, a combination with odds of about 1000 to 1 against chance occurrence. The market's moving upward in November appeared to have at least some statistical significance for all subsequent periods ranging from one to ten months. It occurred at a confidence level of 95 or greater for five of the ten periods; one, five, eight, nine, and ten months. The average percentage change in the Dow for the 49 nine-month periods following an upward November was almost 9. This compares with an average for all nine-month periods of 4.8. In other words, the average market advance following a rise in November was over twice as great as might have been expected. There are some interesting minor Sidelights to the study. An upward move in August, for some strange reason, appears to increase the likelihood of a downmove in September. The same is true for the 2-month period, August-October. It is perhaps worth reiterating,.as pointed out above, that, in contrast to the usual pattern, August, 1980 was not an upward month. Other findings include the following. January is similar to August in that an upmove in that month appears to foreshadow a correction. There is some indication that the likelihood of the traditional summer rally is increased by strength in May and June. Upmoves in either of those two months increase the probability of the summer advance slightly. And finally, July action, while showing little for the near term, tends to have some predictive value for the remainder of the year.. An upward July has foreshadowed a July-December upmove 39 of the 54 times it has occurred, with an average advance from the July close of 4.7, almost twice as great as would be expected. This phenomenon may be of some interest in the light of July's strength this year. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) 947.78 S & P Composite (12 00 PM) 127.45 Cumulative Index (9/25/80) 1015.93 AWTsla ANTHONY W. T ABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No 510iement Of expression of opinion or ony other motler herein contolned IS, or , to be deemed to be, directly or ,nd,rectly, on offer or the SOl,Cllotlon of on offer to bvy or lell anI. security referred to or menhoned The matter 1 presented merely for the converllcnc() 01 the subSCriber While oNe believe the sources of our Informa- tion to be rei lob e, we In no wo,/ reprelent or guorolllee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any action to be token by the subSCriber be based on hIS own investigation and information Jonney Montgomery cotl, Inc, as 0 corporation, and 115 off,cers or employees, may now hove, or may loter toke, positions or lrodcs In respect to ony seCUrities mentIoned In thiS or ony future ond such pOSition moy be different from ony views now or hereafter epressed In Ih,s or ony other ,SS\J!;! Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC 0 on Investment odvisor, may give adVice to ItS Investment adVisory and other customers ,ndependently of ony statements mode In thiS or ,n any other Issue Further Informotlon on ony securIty mentioned hereIn IS aVailable on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE. INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE – —-''.J – -'– October 3, 1980 Analysis of the market in terms of seasonal tendency has become fashionable of late. We succumbed to the temptation ourselves last week, when we devoted an entire letter to explaining the significance of the market's closing up in September. At that point, the market turned down, and the Dow closed slightly lower for the month of September, demonstrating one more peril of the market-forecasting profession. The current popularity of seasonal analysis probably stems from the fact that, in recent years, fall has brought a chill in more ways than one. 1978 and 1979 both featured sharp and short corrections sometime during the autumn. ,This recent history, coupled with the rather noticeable loss in the market's upside momentum over the past couple of months, has produced a certain nervousness on the part of a number of stock market observers. Actually, the August-September record of the market is mixed and depends in large part on what index one looks at. Essentially, that record consists of a lateral trading range for the month of August, followed by a rally to new highs in mid-September, followed, in turn, by a total or partial retracement of that rally. In the case of certain averages, notably the DowJones Industrials, the September highs were not all that different from the August ones, and the retracement of the rally was just about complete. In other averages, new highs were achieved by a substantial margin. In a few cases, notably interest-sensitive indicators, the September rally was just about non-existent. In any case, almost all market indices (with the exception of the unusually strong transporta- l- tives are set out in the table below. Average Recent Level Downside Breakout Objective Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Utilities S & P 500 S & P 400 S & P Utilities S & P Financial NYSE Composite NYSE Industrials NYSE Financial AMEX Mkt Value 944.03 110.12 128.59 146.50 50.57 13.15 74.29 86.87 68.34 339.79 915 107 120 138 49 12.70 68 81 65 322 880-870 102-97 115 132 43 12.20-11.50 64 75 61 306 A number of facts should be noted. First of all, in no case has a downside breakout taken place. Secondly, in no case is the downside target all that significant. The worst that can be foreseen is a sort of conventional result — the same sort of autumnal sinking spell that has taken place in the past couple of years. In fact, based on present indications, such a sinking spell, if indeed it occurs, should be somewhat milder than any of the three previous ones. 1 Theif in the above sentence is the operative word. We tend to have a certain intuitive s'lspicion of obvious forecasts, and we think that the present expectation of fall weakness based on the recent history belongs in that category. If downside breakouts from ranges outlined in the table above do begin to take place, a modest decline can be anticipated, and we would conduct money management activities based on that anticipation. We would, however, await such breakouts before expecting even short-term weakness. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 PM) S & P Composite (12 00 PM) Cumulative Index (10/2/80) AWTsla 944.03 128.59 995.37 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or c)(preSSlon of opInion or any other motter hercln contolned I, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or ,ndlrec!ly, on offer or the soitcltatlon of on offer 10 buy or sell cny security referred to Or menhoned The mOiler IS presented merely for the (onverlenCE of Ihe ubscrlber While we believe Ihe sources of our Informa han 10 be reliable, we In no way represent or guoronlee the accuracy thereof nor of the ml,lde herein Any acllon to be token by the subSCriber shOUld be based on hiS own inVestigation and Informollon Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc as a corporation, and 115 off'cers or employees, may now have, or may loler lole, POSitiOns or Irades In respect 10 any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, wtllch ,s registered With the SEC os on Investment odvlsor, may give adVice to ItS Investment adVisory and othe. customers Independently of any statements mode ,n thiS or In any other Issue further 'nformotlon on any security mentioned herern IS ovollable on request