Viewing Month: May 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 02, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 02, 1980

Tabell's Market Letter - May 02, 1980
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER -, 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NF!!W JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE May 2, 1980 One of the most important tasks of the market analyst is the development of a forecast, that is some -to–behave -in.t-he, fut-ure.-..-A-usefulpreambleo-to-.Suc , forecast, in many cases, is ari analysis of tlie way in -which the market has behaved in Hie past along with an attempt to set this known behavior within the context of the economic background which went along with it. The object of such an exercise is to find out just how much of that economic background is built in to the current level of stock prices. Modern academicians, who theorize about the economic perfection of capital markets, would have us believe that, at any time, all known information is built in- to a given price level. The technician, needless to say, denies this assumption, but there is no doubt that, at any given time, the stock market reflects a number of assumptions about the current economy. The attempt to detect just what these assumptions might be is often an interesting one. The market's behavior is, of course, a matter of record. Most recently, that behavior has been not at all bad. We have tried in the last four issues of this letter to reflect the fact that, based on histor- ical precedent, action since March 27 must be viewed at least as an attempt to form a bottom of some im- portance. This attempt began with the classic intraday selling climax of March 27, continued with the subsequent test of that low on April 21, and was also suggested by extraordinarily good market breadth during iust about the entire month of April. Assuming the success of this bottoming attempt, it will mark the end of the third market correction since the fall of 1978. These three corrections have all had similar characteristics. All were relatively minor to intermediate-term in scope, ranging between 11 percent and 16 percent, declines well below the historic norms associated with major bear markets. All took place rather quickly with only a few weeks between the high and the initial climax low, and all, finally, started from the level of 900, plus or minus a few points, on the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. Before these three market drops, the only identifiable decline of more than short-term proportions was the two-year drop in the averages which took the Dow-Jones Industrials from 1014.79 on September 21, 1976 to 742.12 on February 28, – – –,–19780–l'-his-decline-was-of–bearmarket-pr-Opol't-ions-iIht…. 19 on the S & P 500), and its 18-month length was not unusual in the light of recent downswings. Nonetheless, it could hardly be considered a broad decline in that, during the period, many stocks advanced in the face of the fall in the averages. In one sense, it has been six years, since 1974, since we have had a classic bear market, defined as an instance in which almost all stocks decline sharply over a protracted period of time. All of the above, we think, has been taking place against a rather interesting economic background. As examples of that background, it is only necessary to cite three news stories which appeared during the past week. The first of these was the Iranian misadventure, the second was the news of financial difficulties being undergone by' a major U. S. bank, and the third was the sharp drop in March by the Commerce Department's composite index of leading economic indicators, marking the continuation of an ongoing decline that has been underway since October, 1978. The stock market's response to all three of these developments was, essentially, to ignore them. Even the weakness which set in late Thursday afternoon, while possibly associated with the last of the three items mentioned above, did not begin until the later part of the day's trading, whereas the news had been a prominent feature of the morn- ing's papers. It is worthwhile asking why this should be so. The record of stock market responses to wars and rumors of war is a mixed ,one, and there is no particular reason why the market should have declined in the light of what happened in the Persian desert. It seems axiomatic to us, however, that a more technically vulnerable market might well have done so. Those of us familiar with economic history have been trained to regard signs of strain in the banking system as a major concomitant of disaster. The stock market has apparently developed suffici- ent faith in the viability of the current system so that the emergence of such strains can be shrugged off. The lack of response to increasing evidence of recession can probably be attributed to surfeit. We have been hearing about the impending recession for more than two years now. Surely most of the investment decisions made on the basis of that recession were, in fact, made a long time ago. One of the attributes of a bear market has always been an almost pathological sensitivity to news that was even remotely bad. In contrast, ignoring bad news often constitutes evidence of underlying strength. Viewed on the surface, we think, it is very difficult to find anything good about the sort of economic news to which we been recently treated. The market's lack of response to that news is, we think, a factor which must be viewed constructively. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 PM) 810.07 S & P Composite (1200 PM) 105.45 Cumulative Index (5/1180) 747.51 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWT sla No stolement or ellprenlon of opinion or ony other matter herein contained IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or IndHec1ly, an offer or the solicitation of an oHer to buy or seJi any secufliy referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presenled merely for the convef'lence of the subscriber While -He believe Ihe sOurces of our Informa tlon 10 be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the stolements mude herein Any odlon 10 be laken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own mvestlgallon and mfC)rmatlon Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, as a corporation, and Its offICers or employees, may now have, or may later take, pOSllIOM or trades In respect to any SeCUfitles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter e)(pressed In thiS or any other Issue Jonney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whICh IS registered wllh the SEC os on Inveslment moy give adVICe to Its Investment adVisory and othel customers Independently of ony statements mode In thiS or In ony other Issue Further mformotlOn on any seCl.J1!ly menhoned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 09, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 09, 1980

Tabell's Market Letter - May 09, 1980
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER New YORK STOCK EXCHANoe, tNC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE – May 9, 1980 – … -.. '.!– Our quadrennial exercise-in analysis of the election-year stock market pattern was published somewhat earlier this time around than has normally been the case in the past. Back on November 16, we set forth our usual table detailing the stock market history of each election year since 1900 and duly arrived at the conclusions that this study normally tends to show. One of these conclu- sions pointed out the tendency of such years to have a flat or downward bias in the year's first half, a tendency which will apparently again be the case in 1980. ;;;- We generally couch this study in terms of the average price for each month in an election year, expressed as a percentage of the previous year-end close. In February of this year, the average prices for the Dow and S & P 500, respectively, were 104 and 107 of their year-end closes. The recent decline caused the average price for the Dow in April to be 94 of its yearend figure, and the comparable statistic for the S & P 500 was 95. Some recovery has taken place, but the average price for May so far is below its year-end figure in both instances. As the stock market sorts itself out, the political scene seems to be doing so also. It now appears probable that, despite media-attracting death rattles by the minor candidates and their satraps, Messrs. Carter and Reagan will be the contenders next November. The historical record of third-party candidacies, moreov.er, would suggest that, despite Mr. Anderson's efforts, one of the aforementioned two gentlemen will govern the United States beginning in 1981. We consider ourselves unqualified to comment on political subjects except insofar as they relate to the equity market, but it can be noted that the action of that market so far can be inter- as afforam-g -camp. -'l'nere -nave jeen seven elmrt10n years -1u this century in which the average April price was lower or about the same as that of the previous year-end. Those years were 1916, 1920, 1932, 1940, 1952, 1960, and 1968. In six of the seven cases, as was the case this year, the decline was modest, under 10, the only large drop being in 1932. What is interesting about the seven years, however, is that ,five of them saw the replacement of the incumbent Presidential party, Wilson by Harding in 1920, Hoover by Roosevelt in 1932, Truman by Eisenhower in 1952, Eisenhower by Kennedy in 1960, and Johnson by Nixon in 1968. The two exceptions were the reelections of Wilson in 1916 and Roosevelt in 1940. Conversely, of the seven occasions during the century when the party controlling the White House changed, five saw flat-to–lower stock markets in April. The two exceptions to this rule were the replacement of Taft by Wilson in 1912, and notably, the replacement of Ford by Carter four years ago, an interesting exception to the election-year pattern since it produced the strongest four-month rally of any of the 20 years under study. As far as the stock market is concerned, the most relevant conclusion of our election-year study at the moment points to the tendency toward a strong second half for the year, regardless of who winds up getting elected. As we pointed out last November, in 16 of the 20 election years, the .average price for December was higher than tlTe average price for June. Likewise, the Decem- ber average price was higher or the same as the April average price in 15 years of the 20. In five of the seven years in which the market was lower in April, it had recovered significantly from those lows by the year end. The only two cases where the market continued down from its -r April low figure were 1920 and 1940. –'-0' This letter, as its readers know, has been inclined toward the view that recent market action constitutes a base formation attempt which could, of course, result in a rally to take place later this summer. Such a pattern appears consistent with a year in which a presidential election is taking place. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) S & P Composite (12 00 PM) Cumulative Index (5/8/80) 809.90 105.40 771. 78 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL AWT sla No statement or expressIOn of oplnlon or any other motler herein contamed 15, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or Indirectly, on offer or the soliCltallon of on offer to buy or sell any security referred to or menlloned The mOiler IS presented merely for the convef'lenCe of the subSCriber While 'lie believe the sources of our Informe- han to be reliable, we ,n no way represent or guarantee the occuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any oct Ion to be token by the subscriber should be based on 1'115 own investigation and Informallon Janney Montgomery Seolt, Inc, as 0 corporation, and Its officers or employees, moy now have, or may loter lake, positions or trades In respect to any rrenlloned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posdlon may be different from any views nov. or hereafter expressed In thiS or ony other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVisory and othel customers independently of any stotements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS ovailable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 16, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 16, 1980

Tabell's Market Letter - May 16, 1980
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER -, 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 elVISION OF' MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGe, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – May 16, 1980 -. '.-.- . be-en – for those whose business 'it is to comment on the stock market. For the entire period, we have been duly warned of the imminence of an economic contraction ,and , until recently, at least we are told, evidence of that contraction has failed to manifest itself. With the existence of a downturn now widely recognized, most discussion now centers on the probable extent and depth of the future slide. The one question not now being raised regarding a recession is Is it over It is, of course, patently obvious that the answer to this question as of mid-May, 1980, is No. It is, however, in our view, less than obvious that the question is inappropriate and quite probable that it will become more appropriate over the coming months. , We have pointed out before and will reiterate again the fact that those of us who predict reces- sions are not predicting a future event. The reason for this is that recessions are recognized after the fact. In all cases to date, the peak of a recession has not been formally recognized by the NBER until well after it has occurred, and very often, the recession itself remains unrecog- nized until well after the whole process is over and the economy has again turned up. The ques- tion for the past two years has not been when a recession would begin but when it would become obvious that a recession already begun was well under way. It is that point that has now been reached, and the job of the forecaster, at the moment, is not picking a peak but a trough. Part of the difficulty in the current analysis of economic time series lies in the fact that their recent behavior has, in many ways, been quite different than their behavior in the past. The NBER's various indices of economic activity have tended, since World War II, to feature sharp reversals and identifiable peaks and valleys. What has generally not been a feature of these ser- ies is broad flat periods with no clearly identifiable trend. It is, however, just this sort of I numbers recognize the fact that this sort of behavior makes cycle identification difficult. Thus, I' the long delay in recognizing the onset of a recession which has been a two-year topic of discus- sion. The Bureau's leading indicator composite, however, has been in a rounding to flat formation since early 1978 with an actual peak having been reached in October, 1978. The coincident com- posite has been flat since the beginning of 1979, with a peak having been reached in March of that year. Housing starts peaked in the second quarter of 1978 and are currently at a little better than half their peak level. The rate of inventory change turned down at around the same time and turned negative last fall. Inflation-adjusted money supply was flat throughout 1978, turned down that fall, and has been trending downward ever since. The point is that, assuming the present is ultimately identified as a period of economic contraction, its peak will most likely be seen as taking place well over a year ago. We are, meanwhile, seeing various pieces of evidence that point to the maturity of the process. The recent behavior of short-term interest rates, widely described as extraordinary, suggests one such instance. Their behavior, admittedly unprecedented, is less than extraordinary, when one pictures a Federal Reserve concentrating more and more on monetary aggregates and less and less on interest rates. At a time when the talk is still of monetary restraint, the Fed may be becoming an actual supplier of funds to the banking system. Under these circumstances, behavior of inter- est rates is simple evidence of reduced loan demand due to an economic contraction in its advanced rather than its early stages. It must be remembered, moreover, that economic indicators foreshadow bottoms with a much shorter lead time than is the case with tops. In a fair number of cases, the delay in getting the figures out is just about the same as the lead time. -Thus the -condition at the bottom of a reces- sion is the announcement of new lows by most indicators. It is well to keep this in mind at the moment, since this is precisely the condition which is likely to obtain for the next few months. We do not think that the action of the stock market over the past two years suggests that it has ever disbelieved in the existence of a recession or that the recession was going to be unusu- ally mild. We suspect, therefore, that its response to the obviously forthcoming announcements of economic contraction may be more positive than many analysts suspect. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) 822.70 S & P Composite (12 00 PM) 106.89 Cumulative Index (5/15/80) 787.68 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWT sla No slalement or expression of opinion or any other motler herern contarned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convellence of the svbscrlber. While Ne believe the sovrces of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or gvarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude he'eln. Any action to be taken by the svbscrlber shovld be bosed on hiS own investigation and Information Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, as a corporation, and ItS officers or employees, may now hove, or mol' later tae, positions or trpdes In respect to any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any VieNS now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVisory and olhel customers mdependently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentIOned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 23, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 23, 1980

Tabell's Market Letter - May 23, 1980
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TABELLS MARKET LETTER .., 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCI( EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE May 23, 1980 attempting to identIfy place. – Often-these leadersh-ip shifts take place coincidentally with short-to-intermediate-term market reversals, thus making their idenhfica- tion all the more difficult. This has been especially true in the present instance. the market advance which began in early March, 1978 at 86.90 on the Standard & Poors 500 and which has continued, so far at least, through the high of 118.44 reached on February 13 of this year, a fairly conventional bull- market advance of 36. . That advance, so far, has consisted of at least three identifiable upward phases, since it was inter- rupted twice by identifiable intermediate-term corrections which took place in the fall of 1978 and in the fall of 1979. A like correction, of course, took place in February-March of this year and, since a new high is still a long way from being achieved, the question remains open as to whether that correction and the subsequent rally through yesterday, remain part of a two-year-old bull market or some other sort of process. There is no doubt, however, that the two-year period in question, even measured to current prices has not been a bad one for holders of well-selected equities. Measuring from a base date at the end of the second quarter of 1978, some 12 weeks after the bull market began, the Standard & Poors 500 was, as of this Wednesday, up almost 13. As would be expected in such a period, action has been diverse. Of 103 S & P mdustrial groups, 35 are actually down over the period and 20 have advanced less than the S & P 500. Forty-eight groups turned in an advance in excess of that of the average, with the best move so far being a 113 advance by gold issues. The low for the recent February-March correction was made on March 27, and, on the day before, the S & P 500 was at 98.68, from which point it had advanced just over 9 as of Wednesday. As could be expected over a shorter period, action has been more uniform with only 12 S & P industrial groups having shown declines over the two months involved. The largest advance to date has been the 34 -t The following table shows, on the lefthand side, the ten best-acting groups for the period June, 1978 through this week, together with their percentage change. Also shown is the percentage change for the recent rally, starting on March 26. The righthand table is the reverse of the first one. It shows the ten best acting groups on the short-term rally with their comparable performance for the two-year period. An examination shows some intersting shifts in leadership. Industry Gnoup Change Change Industry Jun 78-May 80 Mar 80-May 80 Group Change Change Mar 80-May 80 Jun 78-May 80 Gold Oil-(Crude Prod.) Machine – Tools Metals-Misc. Oil-Domestic Oil Well Equipment Home Building Offshore Drilling Distillers Textiles Apparel (S & P 500) 113 109 102 86 82 74 69 66 65 57 13 7 13 -2 -1 3 8 17 9 19 -2 9 Savings & Loan 34 4 Mobile Homes 27 -14 Tobacco 25 30 Retail Stores-Drug 24 8 Cosmetics 23 -15 Sugar Refiners 22 33 Investment Cos. -Bond 22 — Soaps 20 -10 Household Appliances 20 -15 Soft Drinks 19 – 7 (S & P 500) 9 13 Quite clearly the key word for the two-year rise to date has been energy. No fewer than four of the ten-leading groups for the June, 1978 – May, 1980 period have been associated with the oil industry. Interestingly enough, however, most of these long-term leaders have not behaved exceptionally on the recent rise. Three of the ten leading groups are actually down over the past two months, and three m0re have advanced less than the Standard & Poors 500. The only group whiCh came close to making both lists is Distillers, which just missed inclusion in the righthand half of 1Ihe table. If energy dominates the lefthand list, lower interest rates dominate the righthand side, where such groups as Savings and Loans, Mobile Homes, and Bond Funds stand to benefit. Five of the ten leaders over the past two months were actually down over the two-year period, and only two have been above- average performers for that period. Strength in the oils on Thursday may alter the picture somewhat, but it is quite obvious that the character of the market has changed quite rapidly since last March's lows from what it was over the past couple of years. It remains to be seen, of course, whether this shift in leadership will remain a permanent phenomenon. ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) 847.95 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL S & P Composite (12 00 PM) 109.95 Cumulative Index (5/22/80) 801. 38 AWT sla No statement or expression of opinion or ony other matter herein conlollled 1, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the sohcltollon of on offer to bvy or sell ony seevnty referred 10 or mentioned The mOiler IS presented merely for Ihe convel',ence of the subscriber While oNe believe the wurees of our informa- tion to be rellGble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the slolemenl mude herem Any aCTIOn to be taken by Ihe subscriber should be bosed on hiS own Invesllgollon and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, fnc , as 0 corporaTion, and ,Is officers or employees, moy now hove, or may loler lake, positions or trades In respect to any mentioned In thiS or any fu!ure Issue, and pas.on may be different from any Views now or hereafter expressed In thIS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whICh IS regisered ,,h the SEC os an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVisory and other customers ,ndependently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security menhoned here.n IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 30, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 30, 1980

Tabell's Market Letter - May 30, 1980
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( eXCHANGE May 30, 1980 market rise from March, 1978 to date. As we noted last week, the S-& P 500 during that period has scored three soccessive higher highs at 106.99 in September, 1978, 111. 27 in October, 1979, and 118.44 last February. These were punctuated by three lows at approximately similar levels of 92.49 in November, 1978, 99.87 in November, 1979. and 98.22 on March 27. During this entire period, group action has shown mazing consistency. More than half of the S & P Industrial groups, 47 out of the 90 under study, have maintained consistent uptrends or downtrends during this period. A consistent uptrend is defined. in this case, as having scored a higher high at each of the three highs mentioned above and a higher low at each of the three lows. 26 groups qualify. Downtrend groups, of which there are 21, are defined as having a consistent record of three lower highs and three lower lows. These statistics, in our view, unrlerscore the principle that long-term, relative trends tend to remain in force. The following table lists the 47 groups referred to with the uptrend group on the left and the downtrend group in the right. For ease of reference, each group is indexed so that the first column, its September 13, 1978 price, is equal to 100. The most recent price is shown in the righthand column. 9 11 10 11 2 3 5 13 15 3 7 13 26 28 78 78 79 79 80 80 80 9 11 10 11 2 3 5 13 15 3 7 13 26 28 78 78 79 79 80 80 80 Aerospace 100 82 105 96 141 117 118 Automobile 100 84 95 83 79 67 66 – Aluminum –DiatiHers 100 92 122 104 151 123 134 Auto Ex GM 100 86 89 77 74 60 55 4 Heating & PL 100 76 107 96 116 97 111 Brewers 100 81 87 72 86 71 84 Conglomerate 100 81 106 95 119 95 112 Soft nrinks 100 84 79 73 74 63 73 Copper 100 90 140 117 212 142 150 Cosmetics 100 88 86 74 67 62 77 Instrumentation100 87 125 112 149 123 129 House. App. 100 84 93 77 81 65 82 Semi-Conduct. 100 81 113 104 129 105 113 Foods 100 87 91 82 87 74 89 Fertilizers 100 75 133 121 171 131 145 Home Furnish. 100 99 99 81 93 74 74 Gold 100 80 135 117 206 171 194 Retail Dept. 100 85 92 83 89 75 90 Home Bldg. 100 58 114 95 147 103 123 Merc. 100 83 85 76 72 62 73 Machine Tool 100 77 126 122 202 168 173 100 89 88 80 80 69 84 Machin. Ind. 100 80 107 96 120 100 107 Steel 100 82 98 81 97 80 84 Metal Fabric 100 73 113 94 126 96 116 Tires & Rubb. 100 89 85 72 75 62 70 Metals Misc. 100 88 140 117 211 148 162 Ve'1(Ung 100 79 80 71 74 56 67 Oil Crude 100 82 160 156 212 165 195 Electric 100 92 88 81 78 72 88 Oil Domestic 100 91 139 136 196 158 154 Telephone 100 97 90 85 84 77 87 Oil Inti 100 93 122 115 147 125 146 Excluding ATT 100 93 95 88 90 77 89 Oil Well Equ. 100 88 126 121 169 143 156 Air Trans. 100 68 71 60 60 51 56 Steel Ex US St 100 84 106 88 109 90 94 Truckers 100 70 77 64 67 58 68 Sugar Refin. 100 74 115 98 147 103 136 Bans (N. Y .) 100 85 94 82 87 76 90 Textile App. 100 89 126 111 148 135 126 Toys 100 79 126 103 152 111 121 Nat. Gas Dist. 100 89 114 103 134 107 120 Railroads 100 86 113 103 143 119 130 Invest. Co. 100 85 105 94 113 98 111 It may be indicative of a shift in leadership that none of the uptrend groups to date has been able to post a new high above its February 13 figure. Twenty-two of the ninety groups under study have, in fact, been able to achieve this, but none of these twenty-two are groups that have fallen into consistent uptrend patterns over the past two years. As a matter of fact, ten of the groups which have achieved new peaks above those of last February appear on the rie-hthand list indicating that their trend may be reversing. These are Cosmetics, Household Appliances, Foods, Retail Department Stores, General Merchandise, Soaps, Electric, Telephone, Truckers, and Banks (N. Y .) . Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) S & P Composite (12 00 PM) Cumulative Index (5/29/80) 843.43 109.95 814.28 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL AWTsla No statement or expreSSIon of OpiniOn or any other moiler herein contomed IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dIrectly Of ind,rectly, on offer or Ihe soliCItation of on offer 10 buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the conVellenCE of Ihe subscriber V/hlle we believe the sources of our informa- tion 10 be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the acwracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and informatIOn Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, POSitiOns or trades In respect to any securiTies mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such POSITion may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, whICh IS registered With the SEC as an Investment advlSar, may give adVice to Its Investment adVisory and othel customers Independently of any stotemenlS made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Informotlon on any secuflly men honed herein IS available on request

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