Viewing Year: 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 23, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 23, 1980

Tabell's Market Letter - May 23, 1980
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TABELLS MARKET LETTER .., 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCI( EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE May 23, 1980 attempting to identIfy place. – Often-these leadersh-ip shifts take place coincidentally with short-to-intermediate-term market reversals, thus making their idenhfica- tion all the more difficult. This has been especially true in the present instance. the market advance which began in early March, 1978 at 86.90 on the Standard & Poors 500 and which has continued, so far at least, through the high of 118.44 reached on February 13 of this year, a fairly conventional bull- market advance of 36. . That advance, so far, has consisted of at least three identifiable upward phases, since it was inter- rupted twice by identifiable intermediate-term corrections which took place in the fall of 1978 and in the fall of 1979. A like correction, of course, took place in February-March of this year and, since a new high is still a long way from being achieved, the question remains open as to whether that correction and the subsequent rally through yesterday, remain part of a two-year-old bull market or some other sort of process. There is no doubt, however, that the two-year period in question, even measured to current prices has not been a bad one for holders of well-selected equities. Measuring from a base date at the end of the second quarter of 1978, some 12 weeks after the bull market began, the Standard & Poors 500 was, as of this Wednesday, up almost 13. As would be expected in such a period, action has been diverse. Of 103 S & P mdustrial groups, 35 are actually down over the period and 20 have advanced less than the S & P 500. Forty-eight groups turned in an advance in excess of that of the average, with the best move so far being a 113 advance by gold issues. The low for the recent February-March correction was made on March 27, and, on the day before, the S & P 500 was at 98.68, from which point it had advanced just over 9 as of Wednesday. As could be expected over a shorter period, action has been more uniform with only 12 S & P industrial groups having shown declines over the two months involved. The largest advance to date has been the 34 -t The following table shows, on the lefthand side, the ten best-acting groups for the period June, 1978 through this week, together with their percentage change. Also shown is the percentage change for the recent rally, starting on March 26. The righthand table is the reverse of the first one. It shows the ten best acting groups on the short-term rally with their comparable performance for the two-year period. An examination shows some intersting shifts in leadership. Industry Gnoup Change Change Industry Jun 78-May 80 Mar 80-May 80 Group Change Change Mar 80-May 80 Jun 78-May 80 Gold Oil-(Crude Prod.) Machine – Tools Metals-Misc. Oil-Domestic Oil Well Equipment Home Building Offshore Drilling Distillers Textiles Apparel (S & P 500) 113 109 102 86 82 74 69 66 65 57 13 7 13 -2 -1 3 8 17 9 19 -2 9 Savings & Loan 34 4 Mobile Homes 27 -14 Tobacco 25 30 Retail Stores-Drug 24 8 Cosmetics 23 -15 Sugar Refiners 22 33 Investment Cos. -Bond 22 — Soaps 20 -10 Household Appliances 20 -15 Soft Drinks 19 – 7 (S & P 500) 9 13 Quite clearly the key word for the two-year rise to date has been energy. No fewer than four of the ten-leading groups for the June, 1978 – May, 1980 period have been associated with the oil industry. Interestingly enough, however, most of these long-term leaders have not behaved exceptionally on the recent rise. Three of the ten leading groups are actually down over the past two months, and three m0re have advanced less than the Standard & Poors 500. The only group whiCh came close to making both lists is Distillers, which just missed inclusion in the righthand half of 1Ihe table. If energy dominates the lefthand list, lower interest rates dominate the righthand side, where such groups as Savings and Loans, Mobile Homes, and Bond Funds stand to benefit. Five of the ten leaders over the past two months were actually down over the two-year period, and only two have been above- average performers for that period. Strength in the oils on Thursday may alter the picture somewhat, but it is quite obvious that the character of the market has changed quite rapidly since last March's lows from what it was over the past couple of years. It remains to be seen, of course, whether this shift in leadership will remain a permanent phenomenon. ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) 847.95 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL S & P Composite (12 00 PM) 109.95 Cumulative Index (5/22/80) 801. 38 AWT sla No statement or expression of opinion or ony other matter herein conlollled 1, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the sohcltollon of on offer to bvy or sell ony seevnty referred 10 or mentioned The mOiler IS presented merely for Ihe convel',ence of the subscriber While oNe believe the wurees of our informa- tion to be rellGble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the slolemenl mude herem Any aCTIOn to be taken by Ihe subscriber should be bosed on hiS own Invesllgollon and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, fnc , as 0 corporaTion, and ,Is officers or employees, moy now hove, or may loler lake, positions or trades In respect to any mentioned In thiS or any fu!ure Issue, and pas.on may be different from any Views now or hereafter expressed In thIS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whICh IS regisered ,,h the SEC os an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVisory and other customers ,ndependently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security menhoned here.n IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 30, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 30, 1980

Tabell's Market Letter - May 30, 1980
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( eXCHANGE May 30, 1980 market rise from March, 1978 to date. As we noted last week, the S-& P 500 during that period has scored three soccessive higher highs at 106.99 in September, 1978, 111. 27 in October, 1979, and 118.44 last February. These were punctuated by three lows at approximately similar levels of 92.49 in November, 1978, 99.87 in November, 1979. and 98.22 on March 27. During this entire period, group action has shown mazing consistency. More than half of the S & P Industrial groups, 47 out of the 90 under study, have maintained consistent uptrends or downtrends during this period. A consistent uptrend is defined. in this case, as having scored a higher high at each of the three highs mentioned above and a higher low at each of the three lows. 26 groups qualify. Downtrend groups, of which there are 21, are defined as having a consistent record of three lower highs and three lower lows. These statistics, in our view, unrlerscore the principle that long-term, relative trends tend to remain in force. The following table lists the 47 groups referred to with the uptrend group on the left and the downtrend group in the right. For ease of reference, each group is indexed so that the first column, its September 13, 1978 price, is equal to 100. The most recent price is shown in the righthand column. 9 11 10 11 2 3 5 13 15 3 7 13 26 28 78 78 79 79 80 80 80 9 11 10 11 2 3 5 13 15 3 7 13 26 28 78 78 79 79 80 80 80 Aerospace 100 82 105 96 141 117 118 Automobile 100 84 95 83 79 67 66 – Aluminum –DiatiHers 100 92 122 104 151 123 134 Auto Ex GM 100 86 89 77 74 60 55 4 Heating & PL 100 76 107 96 116 97 111 Brewers 100 81 87 72 86 71 84 Conglomerate 100 81 106 95 119 95 112 Soft nrinks 100 84 79 73 74 63 73 Copper 100 90 140 117 212 142 150 Cosmetics 100 88 86 74 67 62 77 Instrumentation100 87 125 112 149 123 129 House. App. 100 84 93 77 81 65 82 Semi-Conduct. 100 81 113 104 129 105 113 Foods 100 87 91 82 87 74 89 Fertilizers 100 75 133 121 171 131 145 Home Furnish. 100 99 99 81 93 74 74 Gold 100 80 135 117 206 171 194 Retail Dept. 100 85 92 83 89 75 90 Home Bldg. 100 58 114 95 147 103 123 Merc. 100 83 85 76 72 62 73 Machine Tool 100 77 126 122 202 168 173 100 89 88 80 80 69 84 Machin. Ind. 100 80 107 96 120 100 107 Steel 100 82 98 81 97 80 84 Metal Fabric 100 73 113 94 126 96 116 Tires & Rubb. 100 89 85 72 75 62 70 Metals Misc. 100 88 140 117 211 148 162 Ve'1(Ung 100 79 80 71 74 56 67 Oil Crude 100 82 160 156 212 165 195 Electric 100 92 88 81 78 72 88 Oil Domestic 100 91 139 136 196 158 154 Telephone 100 97 90 85 84 77 87 Oil Inti 100 93 122 115 147 125 146 Excluding ATT 100 93 95 88 90 77 89 Oil Well Equ. 100 88 126 121 169 143 156 Air Trans. 100 68 71 60 60 51 56 Steel Ex US St 100 84 106 88 109 90 94 Truckers 100 70 77 64 67 58 68 Sugar Refin. 100 74 115 98 147 103 136 Bans (N. Y .) 100 85 94 82 87 76 90 Textile App. 100 89 126 111 148 135 126 Toys 100 79 126 103 152 111 121 Nat. Gas Dist. 100 89 114 103 134 107 120 Railroads 100 86 113 103 143 119 130 Invest. Co. 100 85 105 94 113 98 111 It may be indicative of a shift in leadership that none of the uptrend groups to date has been able to post a new high above its February 13 figure. Twenty-two of the ninety groups under study have, in fact, been able to achieve this, but none of these twenty-two are groups that have fallen into consistent uptrend patterns over the past two years. As a matter of fact, ten of the groups which have achieved new peaks above those of last February appear on the rie-hthand list indicating that their trend may be reversing. These are Cosmetics, Household Appliances, Foods, Retail Department Stores, General Merchandise, Soaps, Electric, Telephone, Truckers, and Banks (N. Y .) . Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) S & P Composite (12 00 PM) Cumulative Index (5/29/80) 843.43 109.95 814.28 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL AWTsla No statement or expreSSIon of OpiniOn or any other moiler herein contomed IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dIrectly Of ind,rectly, on offer or Ihe soliCItation of on offer 10 buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the conVellenCE of Ihe subscriber V/hlle we believe the sources of our informa- tion 10 be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the acwracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and informatIOn Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, POSitiOns or trades In respect to any securiTies mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such POSITion may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, whICh IS registered With the SEC as an Investment advlSar, may give adVice to Its Investment adVisory and othel customers Independently of any stotemenlS made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Informotlon on any secuflly men honed herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 06, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 06, 1980

Tabell's Market Letter - June 06, 1980
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, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORl( STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AME RICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – June 6, 1980 — O W ' . F'- ' – -;- One of the more faniiliar s'tock'–market aphorisms is that 'a given- market does not seem'to want to- go down. Imprecise as this phrase may be, it nonetheless constitutes an accurate -description, and it can certainly be applied to market action over the past couple of weeks. After having advanced some 100 points from the double closing bottom around 760 recorded on March 27-April 21, the Dow embarked upon what could have been a correction with a 14-point declme on May 29. A normal rebound from that decline last Friday was followed by two declining days to a modest new low of 843.77 on Tuesday of this week, followed by a 14.25-point advance on Wednesday. Thursday's trading had moved the aver- age back to new high territory before profit-taking set in late in the day. The apparent lack of desire to go down remains, for the time being, apparent. There is some irony in all this since the apparent trigger for the latest rally was the official an- nouncement by the National Bureau of Economic Research that January, 1980 constituted the beginning of the seventh recession m the United States economy in the post-World War II period. This recession has, for the past two years, been the most widely advertised non-event since the Second Coming. We have been told from many quarters over those two years that the stock market, in view of the obviously impending recession, was not the place to be. Over that period, the market, with its usual perversity, tended to act rather well. Finally this week, with the actual emergence of the long-awaited Armageddon, the market's response was a move to new highs for the current rally. It is not our intention with these comments to minimize the significance of the official onset of the recession, although we do think the action of the past two years demonstrates once again the utter futility of trying to mix economic prediction and stock market prediction. The recession does, we think, have some importance in an attempt to determine just where we are in the present stock market cycle. It must, first of all, be noted that the dating of the present economic contraction is, at least, interest- ing, and we must confess to lack of total agreement of those august gentlemen who picked January, 1980 as a precise start'date. As- we hoted in.tms space three weeks ago;' the NBER's own mdex otCOinaaent- -,- economic indicators peaked in March, 1979, and various other indices commonly associated with recession peaked somewhat earlier than that. An honest reading of figures on economic activity during 1979 sug- gests that the trend for the year was absolutely flat rather than either up or down, an occurrence which, we noted, was more or less without precedent in the post-war period. Under these circumstances, it seems to us, any date over a ten-month period could have been chosen as the start date for the reces- sion. For whatever reason, the NBER chose to fix on the latest date possible. This is not without significance as far as the stock market is concerned since there does, in fact, exist a relationship between recession peaks and stock market lows, the former generally leading the latter, although in many cases, by not very much. Thus the recession peak in July, 1953 preceded a stock market bottom in September, 1953, and a peak in August, 1957 led an initial stock-market low in October, 1957. Since, as discussed above, an obvious stock market bottom of some significance occurred on March 27, the two instances cited would constitute precedent for linking that bottom with a recession beginning in January. It is true that the last two recessions, 1970 and 1974, demonstrated longer lead times, but it is also true that neither of those two recessions was as well advertised in advance, nor were they preceded by long, flat periods such as 1979 where some of the correctionary forces associated with the contraction could exert themselves. We do not regard it as improbable, therefore, that, when the history of these events is finally writ, the market low of two months ago will turn out to be the one associated with the 1980 recession. Coincidentally with all this, the market, from a technical point of view, finds itself at a crucial stage. The two-month rally which we have just enjoyed has, to date, done just about all that could be expected of it in light of the base formed in April. We have been citing, for some time, objectives in the mid- 800's in the Dow, and those objectives have, of course, been attained. We now find ourselves, once more in the overhead supply between 850 and 900 which has repeatedly turned back all attempts at a meaningful advance for the past two years. , We think, in other words, the market has done all that could be expected of it in the way of a normal technical rebound, and from here on it will have to demonstrate its own intentions. Prior to the decline which characterized February-March, 1980, the entire trading range of the 1978-1980 period was looking more and more like a base formation presaging much higher levels. That prospect was temporarily quash- ed by the debacle of last winter. If the recovery from that debacle continues as impressively as it has so far, however, the hypothesis of a 1978-1980 base formation would come to have renewed validity. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) S & P Composite (12 00 PM) Cumulative Index (6/5/80) 860.67 113.09 829.92 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWT sla No statement or expreS510n of opinIOn or Clny other moIler ht'r/!In contolned 15, or 15 to be deemed to be, direcTly or Ind,retlly, on offer or the sollcltotlon of on offer to buy or sell ony SCCUrity referred to or mentioned The mottcr 15 prcsented mercly for the conVel'lCnce of the subscriber While -HC believe the sources of our Informo tlon to be reliable, we In no woy represent or guarontee the accurocy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by Ihe subSCriber should be based on hl own Investlgotlon and Information Jonney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and I'S officers or employees, moy now have, or may later loke, positions or trades In respect to any securilies mentioned III thiS or any future Issue, ond such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In Ihl Of any olhcr Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC os on Inesl-nenl adVisor, may give adVICe 10 ItS Investment adVISOry and othel customers Independenlly of ony statements made III th.s or In any other Issue Further Informotton on any security mentioned herein LS aVOlloble on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 13, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 13, 1980

Tabell's Market Letter - June 13, 1980
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YOAI( STOCK EXCHANGE INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE – -. We live, apparently, in an era of perversity. We have been officially pronounced to be in the mIdst of a receSSlOn; each day's newspaper brings us news of rISIng unemployment. inventory glut, and other manifestatIOns thereof; in the midst of all this, the stock market continues to rise. Nor is the stock market the only institution that seems to be defying conventional WIsdom. Ever since the accession of Mr. Volcker, we have been warned of monetary restraInt being exercised by those in authority. One by-product of monetary restraint, we were all taught in school, is rising interest rates. Yet the past two months have been characterlzed by a drop in interest rates possibly unparalleled in the entire financial history of the UnIted States. YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES Pf.RCf.'l1 VERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY MONEY STOCK (MIA) 2\ 0 200 -Ll ';',,,1,, I AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES i SEASON ADJUSTED I ' U-J.-18 0 HE '- I I 1–t- -t–t———-rlII ,., -\-4l,L–1rI- ' tI- ' WAY l ,' In. !—-t-1-4–I—–t—–II AI \ u, r\l, ' I I ! /0J . 0'i i , i /1.., \ Y \I .t i ro I, / \ ' I\ I ' C ' 'Jt,. V i -1–1—–t- i \. 11 0 , – 1-.10 – — , ,1—r\- J' ! f— , ' I i i i — f— —11—' . – t' —,, ,I! , , c' ' I! I! '1'1, W. I' J .I, ,i , ' I 'n 1 II 'ItO I) l' IS I l S 10 ., n II no P lS . , ' ' ' WOV,n r i 'LLI UL Xl w..R .I,Pft 1980 6 e.D 0 ' I IS lQ .1L' 11 10 10 ,. 1 Ie )(I ,. 18 15 U r 11 I i 1 18!J- DATA CUIIJ'!NT OATA IlElI! ,N WOV lIS 1980 150,.,.0 OF QQVRS 11 15 RElEAS API! …..y JUN JUL AUG SEP 0C1 NOV DEC JoI.N fEB IAAA .rA l'01HI 1C/80 The lefthand chart tells the interest-rate story. Prime rates plunge almost daily. CD and Commer- cial Paper yields have been cut in half since early April. The yield reduction for long-term bonds, while less pronounced, has been in the area f 200 basis points. Ths is, of course, a theoretical sign of monetary ease, not monetary restraint. Restraint is, however. quite real if one looks at the right- hand chart which is the history of MlA, the simplest monetary aggregate. We have actually seen an irregular plunge in the money supply since about mid-February. Continuance of current trends would suggest that it might develop into the sharpest money-supply contraction of the entire post-war period. Somewhere there must exist an explanation for this paradox. There s one, we think, and it arises from what seems to be a gradual shift in attitude on the part of the monetary authorities. In years past, the Fed's preoccupation was with interest rates as a gauge of the tightness of money. Today, that preoccupation is being shifted to monetary aggregates. We are coming to realize the extent to which these two phenomena are over the short term, mutually exclusive. Keeping interest-rate changes gradual, one of the FedIS major concerns in the past. led to sluggiSh changes in the behavior of money stock. Attention to money stock leads, as we are learn- Ing, to wild gyrations in interest rates. — As the recession persists, we think this dichotomy will continue. Bank loans and borrowed reserves have been plummeting. The Fed, we think, will have to take measures to moderate the money-stock decline which has been going on since February. A reduced demand for funds will mitigate against this. It may well be that despite the wild gyratlOns on the lefthand chart, that we ain't seen nothing yetI! as far as dechning short-term interest rates are concerned. Meanwhile. as yesterday's New York Times pointed out, there exists something approaching 500 billion in bank certificate accounts and money market funds whose yields are plunging and may continue to do so. The attractiveness of these investments, at least from a return point of view. is, we think. hardly likely to improve. Herein may lie a partial explanation of the stock market's behavior in the face of woeful economic news. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) S & P Composite (12.00 PM) Cumulative Index (6112/80) AWT .sla 873.21 115.65 845.54 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL No statement or of opinIon or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be. directly or ondorectly, an oHer or the 501lcltoloon 01 on oHer to buy or sell any lecuflty referred to or menhoned The moiler IS merely for Ihe COnVef'lllnCt! of the Whlle.Je believe the Ources of our Informo tlon to be rehable, we In no woy represent or guarantee the accuracy Ihereof nor of Ihe statemenls mude herem Any act,on to be taken by the subKnber should be based on hiS own ,nvestrga/ron and rnformcrhon Janney Montgomery S'ott, Inc, as cr corporatron, and rts offrcers or employees, may now have, or may laler lake. or Irade' In respect to any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future ISSue, and such poslt,on may be d,fferent Irom ony views now or h8reolter In thiS or any other IHue Janney Montgomery Scot. Inc, wh,ch IS reg,stered wllh the SEC on Investment adVisor, may g,ve adVICe to Its ,nvestment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Further Information on any seo.lflty mentioned here'n IS ovarlable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 20, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 20, 1980

Tabell's Market Letter - June 20, 1980
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.; .!' ' .. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCi!TON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YOAK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMDEA AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE June 20, 1980 – – With thesfoCkmarket, -arleasttlirougnWednesday,having acted reasonalily -ins perhaps- – worthwhile stepping back and trying to reassess the longer-term picture. The chart below attempts to do this. It shows our interpretation of what constitute the major swings in the S & P 500 from June, 1949 to date. It is drawn to scale both horizontally and vertically with the vertical scale being loga- rithmic so that equal percentage changes show up as equal vertical distances. The horizontal scale is based on trading days and covers some 8,350 days ending approximately in April, 1982. lJL!' 100 \ /gO 197'-) 00 70 GO 50 40 SEP 14 1953 20 JUNE 1949 – ORTE I1033 DAYS 1177 OArS 1101 ORrs I1043 oRlS The length of each completed cycle in days is shown at the bottom of the chart, the cycles being measured from low to low. The consistent length of the swings to date is quite interesting and explains the popular, if not quite exact, concept of the four-year cycle, there being approximately 1,020 trading days in a four-year period. Most analysts would agree, we think, with the interpretations shown on the chart through 1974. For the most recent period, not surprisingly, there are conflict- ing interpretations. We have chosen to date March 6, 1978 as the end of a completed cycle, 863 trading days in length. This is somewhat shorter than the others but not out of line when contrasted with the experience of the entire century. If our interpretation is correct, the new major cycle which began on March 6, 1978 is now 579 trading days old. As the chart shows, this is barely half of its expected length of 1,043 days based on the average of all the cycles shown. An alternative view, of course, is that we remain in the cycle which began in 1974. If that is the case, that cycle is now 1,442 trading days old and would not be complete until another major low is reached. For this reason, we reject that interpretation. To our mind, the crucial issue is interpreting the cycle which we date as beginning two years ago. As the chart quite clearly shows, the four cycles through 1966 spent the bulk of their time in advancing phases. The three completed cycles since have tended to peak around the middle of their term. If the current cycle follows the pattern of those three recent ones, an imminent or even past peak is a logical expectation. If, on the other hand, it conforms to the earlier cycles and spends the bulk of its life in an advancing phase, a great deal more room exists on the upside. We, therefore, intend to try to dis- sect this cycle further next week. ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) 869.62 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL S & P Composite (12 00 PM) 114.17 Cumulative Index (6/19/80) 852.79 AWTsla No statement or of OpinIOn Of any other molter herein conlolned IS, or IS 0 be deemed to be, directly or ,ndlfectly, an offer or Ihe soliCitation of an offel to buy or sell any seturity referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the converlenCij of the subs!;nber While we believe the sources of our Informa- tion to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude hen!!n Any actIOn to be by Ihe subSCriber should be based on hi' own Invesllgotlon and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, os 0 corparollon, and liS officers or emploees, may now have, or may later toke, po,llonl or trades H'I respect to any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to IS Investment adVisory and olher cuSlomerS Independently of any statements mode In Ih,s or In any other Issue Furlher ,nformation on any seturlly mentioned herein (s cVOllable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 27, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 27, 1980

Tabell's Market Letter - June 27, 1980
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 081540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE June 27, 1980 In this space last week, we examined the record of seven major stock market cycles from June, 1949 to in-thissPl'l!e thaCa newsuch-cyCle- u began on March 6, 1978. The purpose of this week's letter will be to examine that cycle in greater detail. The chart below shows the action of the S & P 500 on the current cycle, with its major high and low points drawn to scale. As can be seen, it has consisted so far of four major upward moves, the last of which has recovered almost all, but not all, of the previous ground lost. The crucial issue, of course, is whether the current rally will carry on to new peaks and thus represent a continuation of the cycle. – NO 19GB SEP 1976 JRN 1973 jJ, J! 9S, DFr JtJL 19S) DEC 190 1 FEB 1906 ' FB P Jg, HIN 19L1qSFP 1953 F 15 , OCT 1957- !lIN 1962 II IN 10620C1 1966 r y \ r r 10 19BO 100 .JllL MAR NOV 7 1979 MAR 27 1980 NOV 14 1978 In terms of length, it seems convincingly arguable that the current cycle has a good deal longer to go. The horizontal bars drawn through the middle of the chart show the length, in trading days, of each of the previous seven major cycles. It is visually obvious that each one lasted considerably longer than the present one. Even were the present cycle to duplicate the short lengths of 1966-70 or 1976-78, it would still have well over a year remaining. However, cycles are measured from low point to low point, and the key question is whether the high of Feburary 13 constituted the peak for the current cycle. The relative times of the previous cycle peaks, again drawn to scale on the chart, are shown by the vertical tic marks on the top of the chart. It may be noted that both the 1974-78 cycles and the 1966-70 cycles peaked at about the same relative point that the present market had reached last February. Duplication of the 1970-74 cycle, with its peak in January, 1973, would result in a high to be reached fairly shortly. If, however, the earlier cycles were duplicated, the ultimate peak of this one could still be a year and a half away. As the chart shows, the peaks of 1953, 1957, 1961, and 1966 lie well to the right of the present market on the time scale. Most interesting, however, is the level of the various highs in each previous cycle based on percentage advance from their individual lows. These levels are shown with the tic marks on the righthand side of the chart. It can clearly be seen that all five of the cycles shown attained percentage advances much greater than the advance from March,1978 to date. The reason the other two cycles, with peaks in 1953 and 1957, are not shown is that they both involved advances in the area of 100, off the top of the chart. In terms of cycle analysis, therefore, it seems to us that the market is currently at a crucial stage. Ex- tension of the present advance to new highs would suggest that the now-two-year-old market cycle continues in its upward phase. If this is the case, the historical record would suppport the likelihood of a protracted period of advancing prices with further substantial percentage increase. A reversal, however, would raise the likelihood that the peak of last February was comparable to those of 1968 and 1976, and the outlook would then have to be rated as considerably less than sanguine, with a retracement of at least the entire advancing phase of the cycle a distinct possibility. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) 879.86 S & P Composite (1200 PM) 115.83 Cumulative Index (6/26/80) 865.80 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AW'f!No. ssitoatement or expresSIon of opInion or any olher moiler herein contOlned 15, or 15 to be deemed to be. directly or indirectly, on offer or Ihc soI ICltatlOn 0f on a ff er to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The moiler IS presented merely for the of the subscriber While -Ne believe Ihe sources of our informa- tion to be reliable, we In no way represent or guorl'nlee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Information Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, as a corporotlon, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, positions or trades In respect to any securities menhoned In Ihls or any future Issue, and such posItion moy be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Iflvestmenl adVISor, may give adVice to lis Investment advl10ry and other customers rndependently of any statements made rn thiS r In any other Issue Furlher Information on any securrty mentroned herein rs avollable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 03, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 03, 1980

Tabell's Market Letter - July 03, 1980
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STA.TE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JER6EY 08540 DIYISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – July 3, 1980 -For. – on mutual fund activity provided by the Investment Company Institute. The figures for stock- oriented funds, as we adjust them (see note below), have generally provided a rather dreary pic- ture. There exists, however, in the past two months, an early and very tentative indication of a possible reawakening. – ' The history of mutual fund activity since 1954 can be partitioned, very much like the stock market itself, into two eras, with the dividing line somewhere in the early 1970's. In every single month from October, 1954 through April, 1971, mutual fund sales exceeded mutual fund redemptions. Over that period, a total of 27.6 billion of public savings flowed into equity-oriented funds. This cash inflow, coupled with a generally rising stock market, caused fund assets to increase from 5.3 billion in the fall of 1954 to a peak of almost 60 billion in early 1972. The period since 1971-1972 has generally been the direct opposite of the one discussed above. May, 1971 saw the first month since the figures were compiled in which more mutual fund shares were redeemed than were sold. This pattern very quickly became the rule rather than the excep- tion. In the 119 months from that date through this March, redemptions exceeded sales in 94 of them. With a flat-to-declining stock market in effect, assets reached a low of 31 billion in Sept- ember, 1974. They have since increased to 41 billion. Under these conditions, quite obviously, mutual fund managers were required, on balance, to become net sellers of common stocks. From August, 1971 through last month, stock funds as a whole have been net sellers of 17.66 billion worth of equities. It can hardly be totally accidental that a stock market Which has had to absorb this amount of selling from a single source has been unable to generate a great deal of upside move- ment during tne-decade ill quesuon. . Most recently, however, a glimmer, however faint, has appeared on the horizon. Stock mutual funds enjoyed an influx of new investment money both in April and May of this year. This consittutes the first consecutive string of two months in which sales exceeded redemptions since 19741975. The sales side of this equation provides an even brighter picture. January sales of stock mutual funds were 522.3 million and the figure exceeded 500 million again in April. The January figure, interestingly enough, constitutes the best single month for equity fund sales since October. 1971. The only reason that the funds' cash inflow picture during 1980 has not been more positive is that by and large redemptions have increased along with new sales. However, the analysis of past figures reveals that this fits into an historical pattern — one normally associated with the early stages of market rises. During such periods in the past, both sales and redemptions have tended to increase together. As the market rise continues, sales tend to continue strong while the increase in redemptions slows down. If this turns out to be the case in 1980- 81, the results will be interesting indeed, since stock mutual funds would inevitably become net buyers of equities rather than net sellers as has been the case for the past decade. Over the short term, there exists even more potential for such an eventuality. Despite the fact that funds enjoyed a cash inflow of 88 million in April and May, they were net sellers of 550 million of common stocks, in the process raising their liquid reserve position to 10.13 of assets. Under these conditions, should the cash inflow continue, a switch to net stock purchases by equity funds could become an important market factor. There exists, also, an impressive reservoir of public savings which might be diverted to stock funds in the future. As almost everyone is aware, money market fund assets now exceed 70 billion. Almost 10 billion, in addition to this, is invested in bond and municipal-bond funds. It is certainly not beyond the realm of possibility that declining interest rates could cause a shift of some portion of these vast amounts of funds to equities. NOTE All of the above figures have been adjusted by us. This adjustment essentially involves the elimination from the Investment Company Institute statistics of bond and municipal-bond funds for so long as figures for these funds have been separately available. The numbers, therefore. may differ from those reported in the press and other sources. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) S & P Composite (1200 PM) Cumulative Index (7/2/80) 879.86 116.25 866.70 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWTsla No statement or expression of opinion or any other molter herein contained 1, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the 50ile,lollon of on offer to buy or sell ony secunty referred 10 or mentioned The mOiler IS presented merely for the converlenct of the While He believe the sources of our Informe tlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by the subscriber should be based on hIS own investigation and Information Janney Montgomery SCali, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, positions or trades In respect to any securities menl10ned In thIS or any future Issue, and such pOSitIOn may be different from any views now or hereofter expreued In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS reg!Slered With Ihe SEC as on Investment adVIsor, may give adVice to 115 Investment adVisory clnd othel customers IndCpc!ndently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 11, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 11, 1980

Tabell's Market Letter - July 11, 1980
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( EXCHANGE r July 11, 1980 In the it-maybe elementary fmancIal mathematIcs. . … here;yith ,a on .- – – The stock market has been rallying of late in response to lower short-term interest rates, albeit the unprecedented bond-market rally of this spring appears now to be entering a correctionary phase. Much of the bond-market strength, however, has been concentrated in short-term instruments, and long-term bonds are still priced to yield relatively generous returns on an historical basis. A reason- able working estimate of yields currently available from taxable bonds of high quality would be 12. Stocks, by contrast, provide current returns nowhere nearly so generous. How, then, to justify the purchase of stocks at current levels and, by extension, the sharp rally in the stock market since last March, at a time when the prospect for dividend improvement is hazy at best The obvious Justification is that bond income remains fixed while stock dividends presumably will grow. This argument can, of course, be pushed to excess, as it was, for example, in the early 1970's. In considering the purchase of a low-yielding stock versus a higher yielding bond, two key questions need to be asked. The first is how many years of dividend growth will be required before the yield for the common based on purchase price is equal to the presently available bond yield. The second is how many years will be required before the total return from the equity investment will equal that which would have been available from purchase of the bond. ' , ,I Growth Ra tel C–u-r-r-e-n-t–Y-l-d-. H 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 —-2— —-4— —6– —8– -1-0— -1-2— 14 —– 16 18 20 126/200 64/101 43/69 33/52 27/42 22/36 19/31 17/28 16/25 14/23 91/151 46/ 77 31/52 24/40 19/32 16/27 14/24 13/21 11/19 10/17 71/121 36/ 62 24/42 19/32 15/26 13/22 11/19 10/17 9/16 8/14 5 6/-99–1-9/-50-1-9/-34-14/.2 1 4 2/-13–1-/-1 45/ 81 23/ 41 16/28 12/22 10/18 8/15 7/13 6/12 6/11 5/10 36/ 65 18/ 34 12/23 10/18 8/15 7/13 6/11 5/10 5/ 9 4/ 8 28/ 52 14/ 27 10/19 8/14 6/12 5/10 5/ 9 4/ 8 4/ 7 3/ 7 21/ 40 11/ 21 7/15 6/11 5/ 9 4/ 8 4/ 7 3/ 7 3/ 6 3/ 6 15/ 29 8/ 16 5/11 4/ 9 4/ 7 3/ 6 3/ 6 2/ 5 2/ 5 2/ 4 10/ 19 5/ 11 4/ 8 3/ 6 2/ 5 2/ 5 2/ 4 2/ 4 2/ 4 1/ 3 The table above attempts to answer these questions. The column headings show various hypothetical dividend-growth rates and the row headings show various assumed current stock yields. For each junction point, the figure to the left of the slash shows the number of years required until dividends grow so that the yield on purchase price for a stock purchased at the current yield shown is equal to 12. The figure to the right of the slash shows the number of years required for the total return on the stock (assuming reinvestment of dividends) to equal that of a 12 bond (assuming reinvestment of interest). To cite an example, a stock currently yielding 5, with an anticipated dividend growth rate of 10 annually, would begin to yield 12 on cost after 10 years. After 18 years, the total return would be equal to that of a 12 bond purchased at the same time. How does this all work out in terms of actual yields available today As the most simple-minded possible example of available stock yields, we examined the dividend figures for the 20 largest companies on the New York Stock Exchange, taken in terms of market value, with no more than one representative of any single industry allowed in the sample. The average current yield for those 20 companies is 5.14 with a range between 1.1 and 9.5. The average historical dividend growth rate has been 11.075 measured from the final quarter of 1969 through the first quarter of 1980. The range of growth rates has been from 2.5 to 23. A theoretical portfolio constructed using those parameters would, after nine Ybars, provide a yield on cost in excess of 12. After 16 years, the total return would exceed that of a 12 bond assuming reinvestment of income in both cases. It should go without saying, of course, that the growth rates cited above are historical, and future projection is, at best, hypothetical. It should also be noted, however, that the above example considers income only and not potential capital gains from stocks, which presumably would accrue over the long term along with dividend growth. It is interesting, however, that if historical dividend growth rates can be projected into the future, over a reasonable period, the income from high-quality stocks might well exceed that of first quality bonds even at current near-record interest rates. j , Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) 886.01 S & P Composite (12 00 PM) 117.11 Cumulative Index (7/10/80) 885.00 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWTsla No stalemenl or e)(preSSlOn of opU'lion O( ony other molter herein contolned IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or ,nd,rectly, On offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy Of sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the of the subscnber While we believe the sources of our Informo- tlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any actIOn to be token by the subscriber should be based on hiS own investigatIOn and information Janney Montgomery SCali, Inc, as a corporation, and lIs officers or employees, may now have, or may loter toke, posltlons aT trodes In respect to ony Securities mentioned Ln thiS or ony future Issue, and such posItion may be different from any views now or herllafter eprllssed In thIS or ony other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to lis Investment adVisory and othel customers Independently of any statements mode ,n thiS or In any other Issue Further mformallon on any sentlaned herein IS available on

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 18, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 18, 1980

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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER ..- ……. 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANOE INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE July 18, 1980 — -level-on occurred, carrYing the average to its highest hivel in 22 months. The significance of this event has not, of course, gone unnoticed in the investment community. In the last three years, each time the Dow has rallied to this area, it has met with resistance, and on three occasions, serious corrections have ensued over relatively short periods of time. -Da-te 09/08/78 11/14/78 10105/79 11/07/79 02/13/80 04/21/80 -DJI-A 907.74(H) 785.26(L) 897.61(H) 796. 67(L) 903.84(H) 759. 13(L) Points -122.48 -100.04 -144.71 Change -13.49 -11.15 -16.01 Trading Days 48 24 47 Breadth (A-DIU) 721. 18(H) 669.36(L) 692.16(H) 644.16(L) 667.13(H) 621. 16(L) It would, therefore, not be unprecedented over the short term to see the market again retrace a portion of the strong advance in the Dow which, in the period of 63 trading days, has seen the Dow advance from a low on April 21 of 759.13, to a new closing high on July 17 of 915.10, or approximately 20.55. From a short-term technical point of view, the three-month rally has done just about all that could be expected. When the longer-term outlook, however, is examined, a number of building blocks seem to be . ,tn. . .. .,.. .., e. .., 80's, As of this letter are aware, a recent examination of the four-year-cycle a new major cycle began on March 6, 1978 where the Dow closed at 742.72. Our conclusion sug- gested, in part,, .in terms of cycle analysis, therefore, it seems to us that the market is at a crucial stage, Extension of the present advance to new highs would suggest that the now-two- year-old market cycle continues in its upward phase. If this is the case, the historical record would support the likelihood of a protracted period of advancing prices with further substantial percentage increase. Our interpretation of the four-year-cycle would seem to be confirmed by the market action of this week. It is interesting to note that the cyc Ie which began on March 6, 1978 is now 598 trading days old, While the average cycle length of the seven cycles studied in the post-war experience is 1043 days. The decisive penetration of the overhead supply between 850-900 which has repeatedly turned back all attempts at a meaningful advance for the past three years indicates substantially higher long-term objectives, The point-and-figure chart of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average on the reverse side of this letter properly puts into perspective the potential significance of the recent strength in the market. Since the three-year trading range of 900-760 on the DJIA was penetrated by a 920 posting on the upside, it is possible to project long-term upside objectives in excess of 1200 on the DJIA, This is not to say that there are not possible areas of concern on the horizon. Breadth of the market action, although recently in gear with the DJIA short-term, must be watched closely. Classic breadth analysis suggests potential bearish implications when a new high in the market averages is unconfirmed by a like high in breadth, While the Dow-Jones Industrial Average moved to new high territory yesterday, our breadth index at approximately 655 remains below the levels of September, 1978 (721.18), October, 1979 (692.16), and February, 1980 (667.13). This sort of action could set the stage for a divergence of the classic sort. It should be remembered, however, that breadth divergences historically have taken place over protracted periods of time, and there have often been lags between new highs in the averages and ultimate confirmation by market breadth, How this breadth action evolves should be watched closely as it could give a major clue to the long-term performance of the market. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) 921. 59 S 8. P Composite (12 00 PM) 121. 97 Cumulative Index (7/17/80) 916.73 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL RJS sla No statement or expression of opinion or any other motter herein conlolned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly Of indirectly, on offer or Ihe 501lCllahon of an offer 10 buy or sell any secunty referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for Ihe convel'lence of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Informohan to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof ncr of the statements mude herem Any action TO be la'.en by lhe !oubscnber should be based on hiS own mvestlgatlon and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now halle, or may later toke, pOSitions or trodes In respect to ony secuntles mentioned m thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSItion may be different from any IIlews now or hereafter expressed m Ihls or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered with the SEC as on Inllestment odvlsor, may give adVice to lIS Investment adllisory and athel customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further Informallon on any security mentioned herein IS available on request i 10100 1100 1'-'00 eoo lOC 0;;0 600 J )O ac.o /00 0 , l1li ,, DOW JONES 1l'Jl!U0 I -AT INDEX , 20 POINT , .i ( f / ! IV

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 25, 1980

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 25, 1980

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,…,; – – – – – – – – – -TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YOAK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGe July 25. 1980 —– —— …. – ' . – . – ' -…….. … After rocketing 169'.5'4' points from'the Aiitil 21 closing low of- 759.13 on the Dow-Jones -Indus- trial Average to a three-year closing high of 928.67 on Monday of this week. it would seem logical to examine the significance of the short-term and long-term positions of the market after this remarkable 22.33 advance. —r Clearly from a short-term point of view. the market should be ready for a rest after its prolonged advance in the short period of just 64 trading days. The familiar 10-day oscillator of total advances minus total declines is useful in measuring past oversold as well as overbought markets. An inspection of similar overbought conditions in the last few years. coupled with the breadth characteristics of this advance which have fallen to date somewhat short of expectations. would suggest a short-term pause or possibly a retracement of the advance into the strong support area of 900- 880. Assuming our interpretation of the short-term position of the market to be correct. where does this leave us in regard to the long term secular trading range of the DJIA Last week this letter suggested the recent strength in the general market supported our bullish interpretation in terms of duration and magnitude of the four-year-cycle. The recent strength in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. confirming new highs recently registered in the Standard 8. Poors 500 and the New York Stock Exchange Composite. must be put in proper perspective against the long- term behavior of the Dow. As the chart on the back page reflects. the equity market from 1940 till 1966 was supported by a secular uptrend advancing at a rate of about 8.9 a year on the Dow. It was simple to manage money within this framework — bull markets were long and profit- able while bear markets,were short. and although irritating. new highs were registered within a reasonably short period of time. However. -computed 'from slope- — – — Jones has been virtually zero. The most statistically accurate description of the market on the averages for the past 15 years is that it is a wide. flat trading area. The continuation of this trading range concept has recently become challenged. The market has spentmost oJ its time in a trading range. for. the Jast lS,ye1!rs. between 800 and 900. despite occasional excursions outside these levels in either direction. As can be seen on the chart on the opposite page. there have been occasions since 1966 when it looked as if the trading range might be decisively penetrated. However. in each case there has been no follow-through (1973 and 1976 on the upside — 1974 on the downside). The current market strength presents again the possibility of the end of this secular trading range. We know the market. in terms of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. as well as the S 8. P 500 and the New York Stock Exchange Composite. has moved decisively above all the benchmark peaks that have been established since the bear market of 1976-78. Knowing the Dow has traded within the range of 800-900 during most of this period. it is important to note the recent strength in the Dow. Penetrating. on the upside. the three-year trading range which began in the fall of 1977 constitutes breakout from this trading area or base formation The three-year-old base formation indicates a plausible long-term upside objective in the Dow in excess of 1200. If this long-term objective were to be approached. the entire 15-year trading range (1966-1980) would. in turn. be penetrated on the upside which would indicate a brand new market cycle. This admittedly bullish sequence of events we have projected, because of the recellt shortterm strength in the general market must be taken at face value. There are a nu-fiber of other technical factors that must be evaluated before confirmation of a move outlined above may be considered. However. as a child must crawl before he walks. it becomes necessary for the market to first break out of its three-year trading range decisively before it can break out of its 15-year trading range. What is being observed is the market is again trying to take its first step. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 PM) 919.37 S 8. P Composite (12 00 PM) 120.97 Cumulative Index (7/24/80) 924.16 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS. JR. DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TAB ELL RJS sla No statement or e)(pre5S10n of opinIon or ony other motter here'n contolned IS, or 15 to be deemed 10 be, directly or Indlrt!dly, on Offt!f or the SohClfotlon of on offer 10 buy or sell ony security referred to or menlloned The molter IS presented merely for the conver-Iena; of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Informo- han to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mode herein Any action to be to!..en by the subSCriber should be based on his own Investigation and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and It5 offICers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, positions or trades In respect 10 any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position moy be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or ony other Issue Janney Montgomery ScoT!, tnc , which IS registered With the SEC 0 on mvestment adVisor, may give adVice 10 lIs Investment adVisory and othel customers Independently of any statements mode In tnlS or m any other Issue Further mformatlon on any security menhoncd herein Is available on request '00 Io-t,Io-)1momoo0()o('QJo') Oo(o(r-)- 0 0 t- 0 U) eo 0 0 CD 0 U) U) 0 0 U) II I I I I I I I I I T – '– 0 til I c 0 I 0 tn 1 I c 0 0; I I 0 U) N I 0 to N I 0u- I c 0 I — — .-J a.-J CD CD J OJ Z , aZ I 0r &-E OJ (J CO 0 U) I 096i' 6/6T fItS I usr 9t6f St6T nLSf ELSI VSI IL61 OLSf 696r' fI9S. 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