Viewing Month: September 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 01, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 01, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - September 01, 1967
View Text Version (OCR)

W- – -a-lIsntocn. -&– -C-o-. MUNICIPAL BONDS UNDERWRITERS MUTUAL FUNDS Membe.. New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges TABELL'S MARKET LETTER OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS September 1, 1967 The stock market shrugged off at least part of its lethargy last week with the most significant action being Thursday's trading when the Dow scored a 7 1/2-point advance on volume of almost 9 million shares — a level that had not been seen since the early part of August. Actually, the underlying tone was a good deal firmer throughout the week than most averages indicated, and advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on all five days. Most of our short-term oscillators had rebounded by mid-week from moderately oversold terri- tory, thus indicating that another short-term rally phase is now, or may be shortly, under way. If this is the case, it is too early at this stage to suggest just what the upside objective for such a rally.might be. –. – — — Once past Labor Day, the pace in the financial community generally quickens and the lethargy which characterizes the traditional Summer vacation period tends to disappear. A great deal has been said about seasonal patterns in the stock market of late, most of the comment centering around two facts – (1) That years ending in 7 have historically tended to be weak market years, and (2) that September and October, more often than not, have often been declining months. We would be hesitant to ascribe too much practical value to either of these facts. The first we regard as one of those interesting facts not worth knowing with which statisticians are continually regaling us; the second has some validity especially inasmuch as a great many major declines have, in fact, taken place in the early Fall months. However, the two most recent major declines, i. e., 1962 and 1966, occurred during the Spring and Summer, and there are plenty of cases on record where September and October have seen reasonably good markets. Nonetheless, Labor Day is as good a time as ion, it might be worthwhile to review and codify by this letter throughout most of 1967. This policy 0 fo k and, in this connect pol- expressed consistentl sum up in two statements. 1. Most common stock portfolios position. . al\llho remain in a fully invested eir- secuFitieSoloerter–ttii11i-'average qual ity, selling at historically to demonstrated earning power. The assumption be ind t can be outlined briefly as follows The first recommendation -s n ge, on the contention that the stock market is following the sam , that have been in effect for the past 25 years. Djlring this period there ha 'no ket decline greater than 29/0, in terms of the Dow, and each such declihe has e lowed — – in a few cases after a protracted period of sideways action — by a move ew highs. For those statistically inclined, this market environment can be defined by an uptrend channel increasing at a rate of just under 9/0 – – a channel which has held inviolate from 1942 to date. At present, the lower end of this channel is around 820, and the upper limit around 1300, thus putting the Dow, currently at 900, in the lower portion of the range. Now we are, we hope, as aware as anyone else of the dangers of extrapolating past ex- perience, and the tragic disillusion that characteristically follows belief in a new era. We are, -moreover, equally aware of the problems which beset the social and economic scene at the moment – – a frustrating war in Vietnam, racial unrest at home, cont inued loss of gold prospective budget deficits, etc. etc. we do not see conclusive evidence at the moment that these difficulties are of such a the history of the past 2 1/2 decades can be blithely disregarded. We are, therefore, inclined to maintain an aggreSSive attitude toward common stock investment. The reason for the second recommendation is based on the simple mathematics of rela tive value. For the most part, rapid-growth companies, which have been the market leaders since the Summer of 1965, have been rather fully exploited by the present market, whereas cyclical and slower growth companies despite what is, in many cases, a favorable outlook, have been largely ignored. To us, the earnings growth potential inherent in stocks in the for mer category is outweighed by the risks inherent in a possible downward evaluation of earn- ings multiples. On the other hand, stocks in the latter category appear to offer an enticing combination of defensive value plus capital gains potential in the event of multiples returning to their normal historic levels. Dow-Jones Ind. 901. 18 ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Rails 262 37 WALSTON & CO. INC. . bThis market letter ia published for your convenience and lnforIDntlon Rnd Is not an oller formation emptoyeea waa mB.1 obtained from sources we believe to be rehable, but have an interest In or pUJlchase and sell the securities rweeferdroedntoot guarantee herein to sell or II. solicitation to buy Ita ueuracy, WaJlton ,& Co., any Inc. securities dlscUflsed. The and Ita officers, directors or WN.80.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 08, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 08, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - September 08, 1967
View Text Version (OCR)

W—a-l-sItnonc.&–C-o-. MUNICIPAL BONOS UNDERWRITERS MUTUAL FUNDS Mambe.. New York Stock Exchanca8 and Other Principa' Stock and Commodity Exchencae. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER OFFICES COA,ST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS September 8, 1967 In last week's letter we expressed two basic thoughts concerning the current stock market. The first thought was that, as far as could be foreseen, the immediate outlook for stock prices was positive. The second thought was that a dramatic shift in leadership was taking place with the mantle of performance passing from a great many of the growth and glamor favorites of the past two years to a variety of higher quality issues – – some in the moderate growth category, others in the defensive category, and still others in relatively cyclical areas. . This is a complete change from the market atmosphere which has prevailed for the past two years, and examination of our Recommended List tends to underscore this fact. The High-Quality-Long-Term Growth section has, since 1965, generally not performed as well as the rest of the list. We think the time may have come during which quality will re- assert itself, and are, therefore, adding the following issues to this section of our list AMERADA (80 1/4)11 leading domestic crude-oil producer, continues to increase its foreign interests, especially in North Africa, North Sea and Australia, where profit poten- tial is believed large. BORDEN (38 1/2) has been diversifying into chemicals, fertilizers and non-dairy food Iproducts where growth potential is impressive. Modernization and expansion programs will be completed this year, allowing for some efficient use of facilities. J') ' CATERPILLAR ( 47) is the largest maker of tractors and earth-moving equipment, and tHe recent downtrend in earnings is believed nearing an end. '\ \ DEL MONTE (34 3/4) , formerly California an outstanding recb'td in the hazardous canning industry, where it is the 1 factor. KELLOGG (38 5/8). Earnings are expected flecting expansion of cereal market at home and over ju rward this year, rewher controls 50 of the marke S\\. LORILLARD (51 1/2),despite of erger, continues acquisition- minded, which could augment e i ett es. \,,' RADIO CORP. (56 5/8),a leadi'r th- ectronics field; continues to benefit from number one To the Price Appreciatr inventory position has taken a healthy tu i of\;;'!ir Recommended List we are adding the follow- ing issues, all of whic interesting funda '1(1… AMERICAN 0)1 RI se e combination of attractive technical patterns and 3/4),one of the nation's largest bread bakers, expects b eJt.t..e\\ r earnings growth AMERICAN M 0 . t distribution facilities have been updated. & FDRY (22 7/8). This maker of a broad product line has specu- lative kickers in its water purification and desalinization plants, oil and gas equipment and electronics. ANACONDA (49 3/8) provides high yield, over 6, in addition to promising earnings growth through steady expansion in use of copper, of which it is world's largest producer. BULOVA ( 30). Its Accutron watch is paving the way to impressive earnings growth, with this year's jump in net income aided by increasing demand for entire line of consumer products. DINERS' CLUB(40 1I8).Earnings appear to be accelerating under impetus of rapidly expanding use of credit cards and disposal of costly factoring operation. '-\1)' MC NEIL CORP.(34 7/8). Its new automated warehousing equipment, water condition- ing pfoducts, and line of automotive items, provides diversification and impressive earnings poteun\tiaRl.EPUBLIC STEEL (49 3/4) now is one of industry's most profitable producers and recent price hikes should further improve earnJngs potential. \\ VORNADO (251/2). Merger with Food Giant Markets broadens VNO's selling base an puts it mto hlgh profit areas like hardware and liquor stores. 'L\ We are also adding the following 2 issues to the Speculative Price Appreciation sectio ALLIED SUPERMARKETS (20 ) . Its association with high profit-minded Kresge Co. has laid groundwork for good earnings improvement starting this fiscal year. Kresge continues to add ASU departments to growing chain of K-Marts. PENNSYLVANIA R. R. (67). The forthcoming merger with N. Y.Central is expected to enable earmngs to take dramatic leap forward, especially with high-speed commuter train being introduced on profitable New York to Washington, D. C. run. Dow-Jones Ind. 907.54 Dow-Jones Rails 260.88 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. TblA market letter 1a published for your conve-nlence and Infonnatlon Rnd III not an ofter to sell or a solicitation to buy any aeeurltln dl8llusaed. The In- A formation W88 obtained from 80urees we believe to be reliable. but we do not guarantee Ita o.ccuraey. Walston Co., Inc. and Its ofIlcera. dlreeton or have an Interest In or pUl'chaee and IJeII the securities referred to herein. WN101

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 15, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 15, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - September 15, 1967
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston S-Co, …;..;..,;;.;.;;;.,;;.. 1n c, FILe MUNICIPAL BONOS UNDERWRITERS MUTUAL FUNDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER September 15, 1967 With a rather astonishing burst of strength, the equity market came to life on Wednesday of last week with a jump of 12,02 points in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. The strength carried through on Thursday morning and, although the advance was pared by profit-taking that afternoon, the Dow posted new highs for 1967 both on a closing and on an intra-day basis. The rebound was on considerable volume with 12,400,000 shares changing hands on Wednesday, and this figure was nearly equalled on Thursday. Friday's session was relatively lackluster throughout most of the day, but late strength brought a 4.04 point advance to an intra-day high of 938.51. The rise on Wednesday brought renewed repetition of what is probably the most '''''pointless of all stock marker questions, that is, Why Clid themarket which bounced about the financial community was that the reluctance of Congress to pass the tax increase stimulated the market upswing. This was, to say the least, an interesting thought. Earlier in the year, of course, we had be,en told that the market was going up due to the imminence of the tax increase and the consequent easing of pressure on the money market. In other words, if the pundits are to be believed, the market went up in August because we were going to get a tax increase and then went up again in September because we were not going to get'one. It is all, of course, simply one more example of the market's seizing upon an excuse to do what it was going to do any way. We have been in the long-term uptrend since last October, and there is, as yet, no evidence that this uptrend has peaked out. Indeed, the probabilities, as we have continually indicated, point to higher levels before it does, in fact, peak out. Under these circumstances, the fact that Bccasionally goes up 12 points – – – which, with the Dow over 900, is oC\ly a bit – s ould hardly be sur- prising or, for that matter, even particularly nt. As to the short-term outlook, there are bot dAis and us factors to be con- sidered. On the minus side is the disapPoinEreai a – on Thursday and Friday. Yince our daily breadth index is still shor! 0 0 . mi e new peak in the Dow, would hope to see better advance-decline 01'-' e rally tops' out. Also on the minus side is the rather desultory On the plus side ho e a as compared to the Industrials. of other factors. First of all, it is possible to read a sh t e LV 945 for the Dow. selling pressure continues to dry s ances and, most important, upside volume measure- ments would appear e room to expand before the rise is completed. Under these circumstances, our be s as to the immediate course of the market would be a few days of hesitation to st the rapidity of the rise, followed by renewed strength to around the 945 level. All of this would be within the cpntext of a longer range uptrend which obviously remains intact. Actually, if the recent market upswing has any particular significance, it is probably as a leading indicator of what the 1968 business picture will be like. As of the moment, there appears to be a standard forecast for the 1968 economy developing. This calls for gross national product and industrial production to rif!e moderately starting with the third quarter of 1967, but with sluggishness in corporate,pro,fits due to wage demands and possibly, with the tax increase, little or no increase in post-tax profits. If the market is telling us anything at all, it is indicating that this forecast may, indeed, be on the pessi- mistic side and that the profits for 1968 may actually be somewhat better than many analysts now foresee. '-.' – -',' — – In this sort of environment there would appear to be plenty of room for the sort of security this letter has been recommending, e. g., the moderate-growth or semi-cyclical type of issue still selling at a relatively low pIE ratio, to show better earnings and con- siderably better price action. Studies of recent short-term relative price action continue to indicate that it is, indeed, this sort of issue which is quite obviously outperforming the market at the present time. Meanwhile a great many of the glamour issues which were leaders of the earlier phase of the advance, shape up as being,. at best, dull and, at worst, potential disaster areas. There appears, however, no reason at this point to question the continued existence of an overall favorable investment climate. Dow-Jones Ind. 933,48 Dow-Jones Rails 261. 42 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO., INC. Thill market Jetter iI!I published for your convenience and Information And II not an offer to sell or a soUdtation to buy any securities discussed. The In- formation ftIlplOYe!8 mwaays obtained have an rom Inters eources t In or pwupeehbaealieevaendtoseblle n!liable. the seeur\tJes rweeferdroedntoot guarantee herein. 1t8 accuracy Walaton Co.. lne. and Its Omei!ra, directors or WN.aol

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 22, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 22, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - September 22, 1967
View Text Version (OCR)

W—a-l-sltnonc.&– -C-o-. MUNICIPAL BONOS UNDERWRITERS MUTUAL FUNDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER OfFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAs September 22, RADIO CORPORATION OF AMERICA (581/2) FI U 1967 The inventory problem that plagued the color-TV manufacturers the first part of this year appears well On its way toward being solved, much to the relief of the industry which had witnessed a sharp drop in June quarter earnings. The anticipation now is for a slight im provement in the September quarter, and a good rebound in revenues and earnings during the final three months of the year. The stock market already seems to be taking advantage of this improvement and well-situated companies within the industry are under accumulation. Among these, 'Ridio Corporation of America, seems'tonave attractivepotential. . RCA is the nation I S largest maker of TV and radio receivers, records, hi-fi, and other consumer electronic equipment. It continues to'dominate the color-TV segment of the indus the area believed to offer the greatest earnings potential to set makers. Although competition rapidly is increasing in this area, RCA I S recent introduction of smaller models, including portables, should help sustain its lead in the immediate future . . The company's National Broadcasting Company division, the leading color telecaster, is benefiting from increased advertising charges and greater demand for color-TV spot adver- tiSing, which brings in higher revenues. Earnings this year, currently estimated at 2. 35 a share, the seventh consecutive year of increase – up from 2. 18 last year – also reflect in- creased government demand for electronic components. Additional earnings gains and an crease in the 80 annual dividend rate seem likely for the 1968 . Technically speaking, RCA's chart pattern shows tha ing into. ef.fct our ojectives at 76 and 98. .r tQlccurred at 56, bringi 1lPport in the 55-50 rea, hmitlng downside risk. The stock appears to mto strong hands in recent weeks. Recently added to the High Quality secof 0 ecommended List, RCA gain is s.uggested for purcha;Ea;rrent PORA-TrON-(4'83/ 4)- Recent price ction of this group. . Republic Steel, largest producer, appears to be most favorably situated among the major steel companies to benefit from the anticipated upturn in production, not only in the period directly ahead, but looking several years into the future as well. The large-scale capital improvement program that was completed in 1966 has enabled the company to substan tially enlarge its profit-making potential. The advanced techniques adopted have enabled Republic to reduce steelmaking costs to the pOint where today it is considered to be the most profitable of the Big Three. For the current 1967 year, earnings are estimated at 4.35 a share, down from 1966's 5.93 a share, in reflection of lower industry-wide production. With additional new equipment coming on stream next year, 1968 earnings should show substantial gains over 1967 results, suggesting the strong possibility of another increase. The current 2.50 dividend affords a yield of 5. 10/0. From the technical view, Republic has a price objective at 70, followed by one at 106. There is considerable downside support in the mid-40 region, limiting risk. Recently added to the Price Appreciation section of the Recommended List, Republic Steel again is recom- mended for purchase at current market levels. CENCO INSTRUMENTS (52 5/8), originally recommended January 29, 1965 at 29 3/4, has reached its technical upside objective, and we are herewith removing it from the Price Appreciation section of our Recommended List. Dow-Jones Ind. – 934. 35 c HARRY W. LAUBSCHER for ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Rails – 262.37 WALSTON & CO. INC. AWT'HWL'amb Tble mBl'ket letter ill pubUBhed for your and information Rnd Is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities dlUuued. The In. efmorjJmloaFtieoene mWaaJyI hoabvtaeJnI!e.nd inIrteormestaoiunrcoers pwUFe ehbaesleievaendtosebllethreelisaebcluer, ltu'lI rWefef'rdroedntoot hgeuraerma.ntee Its accuracy. Walston & Co Inc. and its officer&. direeton or

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 29, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 29, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - September 29, 1967
View Text Version (OCR)

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – — – – – – – – – – – – – – – Walston &Co. MUNICIPAL BON1lS UNDERWRITERS MUTUAL FUNDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchan98s OFFICES COAST TO COAST ANO OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LEtTER September 29, 1967 Last week's market was, in many ways, a frustrating affair. The popular Averages moved ahead to new highs on Monday, and on early trading Tuesday, before a rumor about a possible raise in margin requirements brought about a sharp decline, which continued throug out the week. The word frustrating is used advisedly since it was difficult to avoid the feeling that, somehow, the market was not acting precisely as it should. Actually, it was very difficult to demonstrate this statistically. The following table, an update of one that appeared earlier in this letter, shows the short-term swings within the 1967 advance. It shows that the August 29th-September-26th in duration and.ampl-itude.to the,other.rallies whic have characterized the bull market so far. Likewise, the decline that preceded it was almost identical with all of the short-term corrections which have taken place in 1967. A similar correction at this stage would call for a decline to around 905 some time during the second week in October. This, from an intra-day low of 919.85 on Friday, should not be a cause for tremendous concern. RALLIES Change DJlA From From Prevo No. of DJlA DECLINES No. Retrace- of Date High Low High Days Date Low Decline ment Jan. 4 776.16 Feb. 9 12.3 5.4 26 Feb.28 827. 95 5.0 45 11 Mar.27 6. 7 1.3 18 80 10 May 9 9.2 3. 7 22 103 18 Jun. 16 6.7 -2.5 9 54 11 Aug.10 Sept.26 10.9 7.2 4. 5 2.0 26 20 57 12 1\ to confirm new peaks in the there have been ca es in e celled out by a subseq t over, breadth characteristics on the August- September rally h . e with those of previous advances, indicating no se- rious decline in vigo t . erhaps, annoying to many investors is the fact that a great many stocks are, at th ent, well below previous 1967 highs made as long ago as March. It can be galling to wa the averages make new highs and, simultaneouiUy,find a great man issues in one's own portfolio selling well below earlier peaks. We would suspect that a great many people had this feeling last week. This, however, is nothing more than a reflection of the tendency we have remarked in this letter before – that is, the tendency for upswings to divide into non-selective and select ive phases.In an initial ncn-selective phase of an advance almost all stocks move ahead. The secondary, or selective phase, which can last for many years beyond the non-selective one, is a period in which fewer and fewer stocks participate. It seems highly probable that the non-selective phase for this upswing ended last Spring,and that it will be more rather than less difficult to achieve portfolio performance as time goes on. There is a paradox in all this, of course, since. during the early stage, when it is easiest to do well, one finds it most difficult to be aggressively committed to stocks. Thus, last January, when it was almost impossible to do any wrong as far as stock selection was con- cerned, uncertainty as to the economy, and a host of other factors, kept a great many investors out of the equity market. Conversely, at the moment with many forecasters assuring us of an economic recovery, it is harder and harder to find stocks that are going to go up. It should be re-emphaSized that selective upswings have, in the past, continued for pro- tracted periods, and our feeling at the moment is that the odds favor just such a continuation in this instance. We would expect, however, that the shift in leadership,and consequent diffi- culty of picking stocks, which has characterized the Summer of 1967, will continue to prevail the I,fmain,j,!,fr of AMERICAN CAN (55 1/2) on our Recommended List for some time, has reached a short-ter objective and is being removed. Long-term investors may continue to hold. Dow-Jones Ind. 926.66 Dow-Jones Rails 261. 83 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. G\ This itaeme m..rk ,ees et le mW8.1.1, tter IB llubll8hed for yo hoabvtaeinaend infrtoemrestlIOinurcoers ur convenience and Information Rnd III no pwurechbaeslieevaendtosebllethreelisaebcleu,rithieust rweeferdroedntoot t an oller hgeureair.anntee tiotasealcl courra a cy a . ohdtatlon Wa1Bton t & o Cbou.y any ,In.c &eetl a nd It! d 8CI1ssed Th I e&0fRcIera. dlr'eetoen on-r A WTamO . WHoSO!

Download PDF