Viewing Month: October 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 01, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 01, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - October 01, 1967
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Since ili the early 19305, the silort interest has played a definite role relative to overall stock m'l.rket performance. Almost without exception, whenever the sho rt interest ratio exceeded 1.5 to 2, the general !Il3.rket experienced a relatively harp advance in following months. Early in 1933, the ratio was junt above 2.0 and the market alMost doubled within the next year. In mid-1938, the ratio again rose above 2.0 which was followed by a market rise of around 50. T, he market bottomed out in 1942 around the same time that the short interest ratio moved above the 1.5 level and kept on going up for more than a year before flattening out. Duri ng 1947 and 1948 t;hen the ratio stayed 1.5 and 2.0, the market was undergoing a consolidation-ccumulation phase prepratory to the great bull mark8t that started in 1949. I'Then that 1949 market started off on its huge rise, the short interest ratio was at the highest point since 1931, betleen 2.0 and 2.5. Again, the September 1953 low point NKX coincided with the short interest rising to between 1.5 and 2.0. A buildup in the ratio from 1.5 to above 2.0 followed the 1957 market low by several months and preceeded the sharp rise of almost 150 points that took place in the next 12 montns. Conversely, whenever the short-interest ratio fell under 1.5 and continued the market UndeTI18nt a corrective phase lasting sever3.1 months. The short interest ratio bottomed out in Spring of 1966 and started to rise sharply as the market continued its decline. ..hen the market bottomed out in October 1966, the ratio las nearing its peak, .lhich Nas reached in November. Since then the ratio dropped rather sharply backto around 1.25 in Feb-11arch of this year, from point it has been rising slowly, along .ith the general rrarket. From the above it could be assumed that either the ratio has reached another peak and soon 'ill start declining as the market rebounds to the upside, or that the ratio will continue to decline to around the 2.0 level, p3.ralleling a further wrket decline, before both it and the averges bottom out. .\ Current short interst is 1.67, or 1. 7 and do.u from 1.9 last month, August IRS 1.h6

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 04, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 04, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - October 04, 1967
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W—-a–l-s-tIonnc–&—-C–o-. MUNICIPAL BONDS UNDERWRITERS MUTUAL fUNDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges F/LE OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S RECOMMENDED LIST October 4, 1967 This edition of our Recommended List gives long-term technical upside objectives, plus indicated'support levels-or 'shorter-term downside objectives. In all cases, we believe the stock would be attractive for purchase at the levels given in the support column. An asterisk in the Upside Objective column indicates that either the objective is unclear, or that the stock has not yet broken out of its base formation. QUALITY & LONG TERM GROWTH Close Qual- Upside Sup1Q/3/67 ity .. Qgj. post Alum.Co.Amer. 85 B 110-190 80-75 Amerada 83 7/8 A 110-136 80-76 Amer. T&T Borden Co 52 1/4 A 37 5/8 A 52-50 60-75 36-32 Caterpillar 46 3/4 A 68 46-42 Colgate Palm. 42 1/2 A- 52 38 Columbia B. S. 61 7/8 A 84 58 Cont'l Ins. 82 3/8 108 80 Cont'lOil 79 A 91-13070 Del Monte 35 1/2 A 60 34-30 Goodyear — Close 10/3/67 Q3ual- -UOpsbijd. e 48 1/2 A 82 Gulf Oil 71 7/8 A 78-92 Int'l Paper Kellogg 27 1/4 41 3/8 A- Ai- 63-82 Lorillard 50 3/8 A- 98 Nat'l CashR. 112 1/4 A 180 Parke Davis 31 1/2 Phillips Pete 61 A A 120 Radio Corp. 61 1/4 A- 76-98 Reynolds Tob. 39 1/2 A 74-124 Royal Dutch 445/8 A 86 PRICE APPRECIATION Adams Millis 85 B 75-65 Air Reduction 36 3/4 A- 55-70 35-32 Allegheny Lud. 73 1/2 A- 102 70-65 Amer. Bakeries 28 1/2 B 44-59 27-24 -Kmer;Ma-ch;-F- 22-3i4–BT- . Amer. Potash 45 3/8 B 48-60 40 Ampex Corp. 37 B- 55-74 34-30 Anaconda 49 1/2 B 72-83 46-42 Anchor Hock. 441/4 A 68-90 40 Bulova 32 B 60 26-22 Cincin. Mill. 60 5/8 B Commonw'th Oil 28 5/8 – 75 46 60 26-24 Comsat 56 104 55-50 Copperweld Steel 25 B 54 24-23 Diners Club 36 5/8 B 54 30 Dresser Ind. 37 B 57 35 Eagle Picher 41 3/8 B 60 35 Eaton Y & T 34 1/2 B 49 28-26 Ex-Cell-O 73 3/8 A 90 65-60 Gen'l Dynamics 62 1/2 92 56 Gillette Co 59 1/2 A- 80 56-54 Gt. North. -Paper-4t3/8 B' Xl90 .m 40-36 Kelsey- Hayes 441/4 B 54 40-36 Koppers Co 37 3/4 B 62 35 McNeil Corp 35 B 62 33-30 Mead John. 35 1/4 B 31-28 8——- -1-2- Olin Math. 78 1/2 B 130 70 Republic Steel 47 B 70-10646-42 Revlon 70 1/2 A- 100 65 Reynolds Met. 50 5/8 B 94 48-46 Riegel Paper 21 1/8 B 34 17 Robt.Controls 39 1/2 B 58 35-33 Schlumberger 73 A 74-110 70-65 Scovill Mfg. 41 B 88 38-34 Seaboard C.L. 64 B 84 62-57 Sharon Steel 35 1/4 B- 70 30 Shell Oil 70 A 120 66-60 Signode Corp. 41 3/8 A- 50 36 Tektronix,Inc. 543/4 66 46-44 Union Camp 36 1/2 B 92 36 United Fruit 52 B 70 50-45 Vornado 29 1/2 45 28-24 Wallace & T. 46 A- 63 15 SPECULATIVE PRICE APPRECIATION Allied Supermkis. 21 7/8 B Camp. Chib. 8 1/16 Chris-Craft 343/4 B Home Oil A 22 5/8 B Microwave 42 7/8 B National Can 35 5/8 B Pacific Pete 18 1/4 B 34 16 46-68 34 50-72 52 30 18-16 8-6 32 19-16 40-35 35-33 14 Penn R. R. 62 3/8 Syntex 85 1/8 Technicolor 243/4 UMC Ind 24 Varian Assoc. 36 3/4 Victoreen 16 1/8 Vulcan Mat. 21 1/4 B- 82-120 58-53 150 80-70 B 58 23-20 B 58 20-17 B 58-84 36-30 C 20-38 14-12 B 37 20-18 Anthony W. Tabell Walston & Co. Inc. ThiS Bulletin IS pubhshcd for you I convenH… 111'1(1 mrormnhon .tnd 15 not Itn offer to or a WJ\S obuuned from source.. we h, III VL' to I P'I Ible. but we 110 not gU.-\fant..,l Its Rt'('UI ,H'Y have Rn mterest In or IlurdlllSC Hnd bell the bt'curlties rdcned to herem to buy Rny sccuntu!s du;cussed The InformatIOn & Co. Inr. lind Its offirers. rhrcclorH or employees may WH-916

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 06, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 06, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - October 06, 1967
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– – – —— —— W—a-lsItnocn.&–C-o-. MUNICIPAL BONOS UNDERWRITERS MUTUAL FUNDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Ex.heng OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TADELL'S MARKET LETTER October 6, 1967 Last week's market action did nothing to disturb either the favorable long-term outlook or the somewhat inconclusive near-term outlook for stock prices. To take the shorter term picture first, the market strength which characterized the lat- ter period of the week interrupted the previous week's decline and most of our shorter term indicators which had begun the week in neutral territory, remained there rather than moving closer to the sort of oversold position from which a short-term rally could be predicted. The immediate outlooR, therefore, remains uncertain, and will remain so until a worthwhile cor- rection or consolidation, – which could lay the ground work for a new short-term advance – takes place. – – – – — — -. – Meanwhile, inspection of individual chart patterns continues to reveal a preponderance of stocks which appear favorably situated on an intermediate and long-term basis. In such an environment, selection of individual issues will be more important than ahort-term market fluctuations. One issue W Q believe suitable for purchase in medium risk accounts is reviewed below. VORNADO, INC. Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield 29 Stock Go West, young man, was the advice of the mid 19th Century. As many individuals found out, along with corporate interests, it was very good advice. Long-Term Debt Common Stock Sales-1967-E Sales-1966 75,281,484 5,560, 000 shs. 700,000,000 666 000 000 Today, that advice still is being followed and Vorna- do is one of the merger with Foo ia adherents through its rats, an important op- erator of s e et 1 Diego, Cal -a, e os Angeles and San Earn. Per Sh. 1967-E Earn. Per Sh. 1966 2. 50 2.14 – to er the important Southern Cal – mar ng area is expected to provide a Mkt. Range 1967'-66-35-3-t-4'-18 1/2 in Note All figures adjusted pro r For th.e flscal year endmg . illion level while earnings could approximate 2,5 a share, or more, y a share. The per share estimate for the current year allows for dilution r g r e Food Giant merger, terms of which allowed for. 6 shar Vornado being exchan d f ach Food Giant share. The exchange has added 1. 92 million shares to the 3.65 m – – NO shares already outstanding. Vornado, which pays no cash divi dent, has announced that the policy of paying stock dividends will be continued. Vornado operates 33 large discount department stores located in New Jersey and five neighboring States. Food Giant operates 70 supermarkets, 14 discount centers and 14 medium sized hardware dO-it-yourself goods stores in addition to a small liquor retailing chain. Management, which has operated successfully in the past by following a policy of acquisition and diversification, is expected to remain aggressively oriented along these same lines in future. In order to perk up unsatisfactory profit margins in the Food Giant operation, market- ing executives from Vornado already have been moved to the West Coast. Their primary aim will be to increase non-food sales, particularly in the soft goods and hard lines areas. This suggests that the food retailing area, which normally carries a very low margin of profit, may be downgraded somewhat throughout the Unimart discount division of Food Giant. Still to be determined is just what view the Federal Trade Commission and/or the U.S. Justice Department will take of the merger which is subject to review. In addition, the conversion of outstanding debentures into common stock would result in a dilution factor approxi mating 14. Despite these factor;, the growth potential inherent in the discounting and food retailing businesses are such to warrant serious consideration by the long-term investor seeking capital appreciation. From the technical view, Vornado recently has broken out of a substantial base forma- tion indicating higher levels. Strong support is evident in the 28-24 range, and our initial pric objective is 45, followed by a higher longer-term objective. Recently added to the Price Ap- preciation section of our Recommended List at 25 1/2, these shares again are recommended for purchase at present levels. Dow-Jones Ind. 928.74 Dow-Jones Rails 258.74 HARRY W. LAUaSCHER for ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thrll market Jetter f8 publl8hed for your convenience and fnfotmatlon Rnd Is not an oft'er to sell or a solicitation to buy any aeeuritiel dlseuastd The In A . WLambfIIO!IlD'lDPiaotyleoens mwaays hoabvteainaend IfnrtoemrNtl!Oinuroeers pwurechbaeslieevaendtoseblle threeHsaebcleu,ritbieust rweeferdroedntoot hpeareriann. tee Ita aeeuraey, Walaton &; Co.. Inc. and ita ofBeen. dlr'ed.on 0; WNIOI

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 13, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 13, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - October 13, 1967
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Walston &- Co. —.;….Inc.—- MUNICIPAL BON1IS UNDERWRITERS MUTUAL FUNDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER October 13, 1967 Not unexpectedly, the market moved lower through most of last week, with the Dow- Jones Industrials rea,ching an intra-day low of 909.79 on Thursday. The low was reached on sharply reduced trading volume of 7,770,000 shares, brought about, largely, by the Columbus Day demi-holiday and, perhaps, by preoccupation with the events in Bcston. Friday's trading saw a mild sort of a rally with the Dow moving ahead some five points. At Thursday's intra-day bottom, the Dow had just about reached the most conserva possible downside objective based on the September-October distributional top. The decline to Thursday's low also brought the correction into line with most of the previous dips of 1 -As of Thursday, the Dow had declined'4. 4;-'and retraced- move from the- August low to the September high. This retracement required some thirteen trading days to complete, and thus was in all respects to previous corrections, except for the more serious Israeli-crisis drop in May-June. That decline took eighteen days to complete and constituted a drop of 8. 6. It also erased the entire previous advance, plus a bit more. In this connection, it is interesting to note that the most pessimistic possible downside objective which can be noted for the Dow is around the 875-870 area. Were such a further decline to take place, the total percentage drop would be about the same as the decline last May, and it would also wipe out the entire advance from the August 28th low of 887.73. It is, frankly, difficult to envision too much worse than this at the moment, and there is at least some precedent for the market's basing out and continuing its upswing from around the present level. Much has been made of the desultory action of the vance, together with the fact that the carrier index declin be ,quring the recent ad- A gust low last week. This would indeed be serious were it possible to sei;i.e i sater distributional top than now exists. The worst downside objective that n reaa the Dow Rails at the mo- ment is around 248 vs. an intra-day low hile we would certainly not expect any broad move in the Rails from the Is, eat many individual carru,rS,aJLOllll with the averages; group, at least,appears a The inferior action of th . eQ;JJ.;e W ive' 1). rid thus,-someconsoHdation in the .. e been widely noted. However, here again, both the or's utility indices appear to be reaching downside objectives at curr 1 e time to form a base will certainly be required, most stocks appear attrac . pri aespite the severe competition being felt from high-vlJ.u new issues of corporat b . Before leaving ubject of Averages, mention should be made of the broad-based dices such as the New York Stock Exchange Index and the Standard & Poor's 500-Stock site. Both of these indices continue to out-perform the more widely-discussed Dow and had; as of last wee!, formed only minor tops, the objectives of which they were approaching at the week's low. It is pOSSible, therefore, especially after last week's correction, to view the general market outlook with some equanimity. The same is not true of all individual stocks. The lesson has been driven home over the past few months that the stock market is not a On-' street, or a means for the manufacture of instant profits without dint of effort or ln1e.lllgen,cell The number of stocks that are below their highs of three to six months ago — some of them a good deal below — is legion, and it is quite possible that, in a number of cases, lower prices will be seen before the old highs are again -attained. It is-cbB.racteriStic of any up- swing that a large number of issues reach their peaks rather early in the game, and it is certainly probable that a substantial minority of individual issues have already seen their highs for some time. Indeed, even in most carefully selected portfolios, problem stocks are beginning to appear with increasing frequency. All this, as we have pointed out in previous letters, is normal, and it is incumbent on the investor to make the changes in his portfolio necessary to take advantage of shifting rna.r.. ket leadership. Meanwhile, we are inclined to view the general outlook for equities as re- maining reasonably favorable. The bull market may be entering a fairly robust middle age, but we doubt if it is approaching senility. Dow-Jones Ind. – 908.58 Dow-Jones Rails – 251. 55 AWTamb ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. le mwauv thtoeabrvtea1i8naenpduIbnfUrtoeehmreed.tlIfOionurroeyreeopWwW' e!c'cobhnaev8lieeenvaienendtcoseeballentdhreeilni8afeobCrleUm. ralbttiuieostnrweAfeenrddroeIdsntnooot tbpeaarnerlanon.f.tte.ere to eell or a eolldtation to buy Its Mcurac)'. Walston & Co An)' Inc. .eeurltiee dlllCUDl!d. The and ita oiBei!ra. dlreeton In. or WN.101

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 20, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 20, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - October 20, 1967
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————————————————————, Walston &Co. – Inc. —….;.- MUNICIPAL BONDS UNDERWRITERS MUTUAL FUNDS Members New York Stock Exchonge and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges TABELL'S MARKET LETTER OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS October 20, 1967 Equity markets, for the most part, continued reactionary during the past week. The week commenced with an almost-10-point slide on the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, which was followed by further weakness on Tuesday and Wednesday. The publication of the short interest sparked a strong upswing on Thursday mo'ning, but gains were almost entirely wiped out by the close,and most stocks actually declined on the day. Following this disappoin ing performance, the slide continued on Friday. The week's intra-day low was 891. 35. The continuation of the drop through Friday's trading made the current downswing the longest in point of time in 1967, and the most severe in percentage drop, with the exceptionof the steeper decline around the time of theIsraeli crisis-inlVIayi\ii1eThe market climate quite obviously, has changed somewhat from tl).at which prevailed during the Spring and Summer, and it is worthwhile attempting to pinpoint a few reasons for the rather desultory actio of a great many stocks during the past month. Probably the most direct effect on stock prices during October has been due to the publication of third quarter earnings which have been – – at least in a great many cases, some what lower than the market had evidently been anticipating. This is, upon reflection, not surprising. Stock prices in their rise during the first three quarters of 1967 had obviously been anticipating a business upturn of some magnitude. No such upturn has yet been reflecte in third quarter results, although there is universal belief that the fourth quarter will show some improvement. It is quite obvious from here on out that the market is going to wait for actual improvement rather than projections. It seems to us, however, that a more basic reason r t malaise can be found in the continued political jockying between the a t 0 s an legislative branch in regard to the tax increase, coupled with the stron ab It t no tax bill will, indeed, be enac1ted. We have pointed out repeatedly pond favorably to the proposed enactment of ear fa t the market tended to res- ncr and the resultant removal of pressure on the The most dynamic part of the 1967 in January, immediatEily after the Presi- dent first ta inc when he recommende t ext most dynamic rise occurred in August t to law. The possibility of no tax bill, and a con- sequent deficit of s introduces uncertainties not heretofore present. The political inat on Capitol Hill have dropped the ball squarely in the lap of the Federal Reserve. attempt to tighten credit and force the deficit to be funded out- side the banking syst ould bring about consequences unpleasant, to say the least. It is thus possible that the only viable alternative is to provide banks with the necessary credit to take on the growth in debt. In,economic terms, this is known as debt monetization, and it is a sophisticated method of printing 'money -. in a word, inflation. This, also, creates a number of uncertainties. One of the reasons for using the technical approach is to attempt to make some sense out of an uncertain climate such as the present. We mentioned in last week's letter the possibility of a 870-865 downside target on the Dow-Jones Industrials, and the probability of a continued drop to this level now becomes fairly gOOd. The likelihood is further increase by the proposed changes in margin requirements' requested by the Federal Reserve Board after the close on Friday. On the otherhand, thecRail Average reached its downside target at this week's intra-day low and may well prove somewhat more resistant to decline than has been the case in the past. Meanwhile, we would expect a goodly number of stocks to remain relatively resistant to the decline, with some even advanCing in the face of a poor general market climate. All of this does not change the long-term picture which, to our mind, remains generally favorable for common stocks. It is possible, of course, that out of the present weakness some signs of longer term deterioration will develop. At the moment, at least, we see little cause for undue concern and believe short-to-intermediate-term weakness should be utilized for purchases in selected issues. Dow-Jones Ind. 896. 73 Dow-Jones Rails 247.50 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 27, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 27, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - October 27, 1967
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&-Walston lnc. Co. MUNICIPAL BONDS UNDERWRITERS MUTUAL FUNDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges TABELL'S MARKET LETTER OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS October 27, 1967 The reactionary trend in the market continued throughout last week, interspersed with a rally on Thursday, and contrapuntal strength in a large number of issues, notably glamor stocks, throughout the week. Presently, positive and negative forces appear to be about in balance. On the positive side, all of our shorter term oscillators reached oversold territory and rebounded sharply toward the end of the' week. This action is normally considered evi- dence of a short-term trend reversal. On the other hand, the probable downside target for th Dow Industrials remains modestly below current levels at 870-865. Moreover, the quality of the present leadership, to put it mildly, leaves something to be desired, as witness the Satur nalia currently taking the AmericanSto-ckExchange. — – – — On balance, however, we continue to feel that purchases of issues representing good fundamental and technical values at prevailing prices should work out well. One such issue is reviewed below. DENTISTS' SUPPLY COMPANY OF NEW YORK Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long-Term Debt Common Stock 43 1. 45 3. 4lo 485,118, 1,917,506 shs. Despite the gains that have been made among younger people in dental health, a relatively large portion of the public continues to be in need of ex- tensive dental treatment. The need for additional dentists throughout the country certainly substan- Sales-1967-E Sales-1966 60, 000, 000 54,210,000 teinadteisn tshiigsh, tantod th h r . woultdhiaspbpoedaer stowbeell nfoor those len ering to the needs of Earn. Per Sh. 1967-E 2.55 dentists t y serve. Earn. Per Sh. 1966 2.32 With pIe now able to afford the Mkt. Range 1967-66 43 3/4-24 —- — , dental insurance programs, the del s, or artificial teeth, due to -incomes-and-various types of heilth has soared in recent years. Dentists' Supply Company of New York g of artificial teeth and as such is ex pected to t b e i 20 ' The company' s . e icmry of the trend toward increased consumption. Gucer of high-speed dental drills, waxes, porcelain and other dental sup k urrler the name Trubyte, artificial teeth account for approxima tely 27lo of I . The production of ethical dental supplies and the resale of supplies and equipment uced by others account for about 65lo. The remainder derives from various types of ental equipment, among which is the Cavitron Ultrasonic Dental Unit, a device for cleaning tooth surfaces ultrasonically and for the filling of cavities. Earnings, which have been in an uninterrupted uptrend since 1961, are expected to reach a new peak around 2. 55 a share this year, compared with 2. 32 for 1966, on sales cur rently prOjected to 60 million, vs. 54 million last year. Although foreign sales are not likely to show much improvement over those of 1966, margins could benefit from the pros- pective increase in overall volume and greater operating efficienCies, especially in the areas of accounting and inventory control. The usual year-end extra dividend has been set at a share, bringing the full-1967 total payout to 1.45 a share. Under the anti-trust suit brought against the company, divestiture probably will have to be made of two divisions' accounting for approxlInately-27' million insales. However;'purchas of these companies was made primarily for their manufacturing facilities, which will be still owned and operated after settlement of the case. The retail operations to be sold .actually were providing an unfavorable profit margin, and management feels that the funds derived from thelorced sale can be better and more profitably employed elsewhere. From the technical view, the substantial base that has been building for several years indicates a price objective of 61. There is support at 39-36. Being added to our Recommende List, these shares are recommended for purchase at current levels. , Dow-Jones Ind. 888.18 Dow-Jones Rails 243. 07 HARRY W. LAUBSCHER for ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWT HWLamb Tbta market Jetter fa published for your convenience and information fLnd Is not an offer to sell or a aoIlelta.tlon to buy any aeeurltiee dlaeusaed The In formatlon mWAuA obtained from IIOUl'Ceft we believe to be reliable. but have an Intere.t In or pupehase and Bell the Reuntles rweeferdroedntoot hgeUret\irna.ntee Its accuracy. Wa1ston & Co Inc. and its oftlcers. dir'ecton . 0; .r

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