Viewing Month: April 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 07, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 07, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - April 07, 1967
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Walston &- Co. MUNICIPAL BONDS UNDERWRITERS MUTUAL FUNDS Memb… New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER OFFICES COA,ST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS April 7, 1967 Today, exactly six months after the now-historic October 7th low-point, the market appears to have lost some of the ebullience which had characterized it in January and again in late March. Capping off nine days of rather lackluster performance since it reached a high of 883.41 on March 27th, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average responded to the lowering of the rediscount rate with only a mild rally, followed by a decline to an intraday low of 850.22 on Friday. There is, indeed, a potential top formation in the Dow. The Index has held since late January in an area bounded by, using intra-day figures,- roughly 830'and'880;-A downside penetration of this area would undoubtedly cause a fairly lackluster market performance to extend well into the Summer, and would involve a testing of the major support that exists at 820-800. Yet, there is a lingering suspicion here that all this may be nothing more than a re- flection of the relatively inferior performance turned in by the Dow since last October when compared with more broadly based averages. For example, we have pointed out in previous letters that both the Standard & Poor's 425-Stock Industrial Index and the 500-Stock Compo- site, were reasonably close, at their highs of two weeks ago, to new high territory, where- as the Dow has not even approached its peaks of last June and July. Thus, both the Stand- ard & Poorls indices have successfully penetrated a major area of overhead supply and appear to be in confirmed uptrends. This is precisely seems to be having such trouble accomplishing. at the Dow at the moment 0 The same sort of discrepancy shows up .. t rt patterns on Stand- ard & Poor's indices. On these averages, no top of nY1;igm 1 e is at the moment ap- parent, again, quite in contrast to the ofa t ow is concerned. Until sucb tops form we are disinclined to become terr rri out stock market prospects. — A number of-dubiouS – !J.e. vance be stymied at these levels have been bandied about of reasons relates to the fact, noted above, that the market low was ade m nf s ago and that, thus, many substantial capital gains will shortly bec e to erential tax treatment and will, therefore, be established. We – s at best. First of all, it is highly doubtful that invest- ors automatically ru t se ecisely six months to the day after a profitable purchase. More importantly, even – elling were to take place,it would affect the overall market only to the extent that the ds realized were taken out of the market and not reinvested in other stocks. With yields on alternative forms of investments considerably less attractive today than they were six months ago, we find it difficult to believe that a mass exodus of funds from the equity market is likely to take place. The second rather dubious contention cropping up is that the market is going to find itself disappointed by first quarter earnings reports which, in the aggregate, at least, are going to be lower. In the kind of a market which anticipated an earnings decline in 1967 by starting to move downward in February of 1966, it is hard not to be persuaded that investors have not already adjusted with equanimity to what March earnings reports will bring. Meanwhile, there is, as yet, littie evidence that the uptrend in effect since last October has been destroyed. It is, after all, but two weeks since the last high in the major market indices and distributional market patterns generally do not manifest themselves overnight. There is obviously greater risk involved in stock purchase at today's prices than was the case, say, last Fall. Nonetheless, until more convincing evidence to the contrary is presented, this letter will continue to take a pOSitive view of the stock market. Dow-Jones Ind. 853. 34 Dow-Jones Rails 227.48 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb Thle market letter Ie published for your convenience and Information Rnd Is not an offer to sell or A. solicitation to buy any aeeurltlt!l ..hscuued The in efomrpmloAyteieo!n! mWaUy hoabvtreunaend Infrtoermestsoiunrcoer! pwurechbaealeievaendtosebllethreeli!a\ebCleu.ritbltu'St rweeferdroedntoot h&errUeAmr.antee Ita accuracy Walllton & Co., Inc. and Its officers, dir'eclora 0;

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 14, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 14, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - April 14, 1967
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Walston &Co.;.;……;…; Inc. TABELL'S MARKET MUNICIPAL BONDS UNDERWRITERS MUTUAL fUNDS Membe.. New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COA.ST TO COAST AND OVeRSEAS LETTER April 14, 1167 The stock market awoke from its lethargy this week. After reaching an intra-day low of 838.98 on Tuesday, very close to the bottom of the 830-880 trading range mentioned in last week's letter, a couple of days of irregularity were followed by a dramatic 10.91 point rally on Friday, carrying to an intra-day peak of 865.03, vis-a-vis the high of 833.41 made on March 27th. Ability to push on to a new high would, of course, cancel out the top formation outlined in last week's letter, indicating a further extension of the advance and – – – – – – -a further push into the overhead supply at 860-900. We think at this pOint the odds favor the upside. There is very little point in refusing to acknowledge the outstanding strength being by the stock market and in hoping for buying opportunities at lower levels which may never occur. In other words, until con- Vincing signs of deterioration are seen, we feel that an aggressive attitude toward equities continues to be warranted. We think it probable, however, that the market is entering a new phase and that, if the advance continues, the investment climate will be somewhat different than has been the case for approximately the past six months. This would be in line with the general tendency of past bull markets. The first six months or so of any given market rise are generally characterized by sharp advances in almost all stocks. It is after this initial phase that selectivity begins to set in. Some stocks reach their and have to back and fill in order to form new patterns; other issues, whic r Ry in a sideways trading channel, reach the top of that channel and v n, toward its lower limits. It is at this point the number of advancing ge a ecomes fewer and the selection process becomes somewhat more difficult. ink, is what is happening in moment. .. . . . . . . Friday's rally affords a the day, 797 issues advanced but it compares da i a on the day. We su e a a t\!;l0sort of thing we are talking about. During Now, this is a respectable figure, well over 1000 issues chalked up plus signs thing is likely to continue. Another charac i ti a market phase such as the present is, very often, a shift in leadership as new in ry groups and stocks come to the fore. Thus, at the moment, the five strongest gro s on a short-term basis are Savings & loans, Machine Tools, Meat Packers, Air-Conditioning and Motion Pictures. These, certainly, were hardly balls of fire il\ the markets of a couple of years ago. Meanwhile, improving short-term relative strength is being shown by such hitherto-laggard groups as Papers, Steels, Industrial Machinery and Coal. We expect that this is likely to continue also. Of special interest from here on out will be the action of trading volume. One char- acteristic of the early part of an upswing is sharply expanded volume of trading. Averaged out into a smooth curve (we have generally used moving totals), total volume generally expands very sharply to new highs in the early part of an advance. Later, as the advance slows, volume generally peaks-out anj drops off sharply with the actual market high being made well after volume has reached its top. In recent weeks volume has been running well below the peak figures recorded in January and in March. Ability to generate higher volume would mean a probable extension in time of the market advance. Further volume declines would suggest that an even more rna ture stage of the upswing had been reached. Dow-Jones Ind. 859.74 Dow-Jones Rails 228.85 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb Tbt. market letter t. published for your convenience and Inlormation nd i8 not an offer to sell or 8 to buy any &eeurltlea dillcuaeed. The In- formation waa obtained from aources we believe to be reliable. hut we do not guarantee Ita aceuracy. Walston Co., Inc. and Ita ofBcer.. direetora or DUQ have an interest In or puPChaae and sell the &eeurltletl referred to herein.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 21, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 21, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - April 21, 1967
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W—a-lIsntocn.-&-r-e-o-. MUNICIPAL BONDS UNDERWRITERS MUTUAL FUNDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchange. FILE /I TABELL'S MARKET LETTER OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS April 21, 1967 The market strength continues. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average chalked up its seventh consecutive advance on Friday and in the process reached a new recovery high of 888.20. Even more impressive was the action of the Standard & Poor's 500-Stock Index which achieved an intra-day high of 92.90, just 2 below its all-time high of 94.72. Throughout all this, breadth action continued favorable. Although objectives for the bases formed in the August 1966-January 1967 period are being reached on most indices, alternative interpretations of the bases indicate that an extension of the move is possible. Moreover none of the signs of deterioration which normally accompany a major top are evident. In these circumstances we can do littleotheythanto continuetosuggestan aggressive investment approach. GREAT NORTHERN PAPER COMPANY Current Price 44 3/8 After wandering in the wilderness of despair Current Dividend 1. 20 caused by overexpansion and falling profit margins Current Yield 2 7 for several years, the paper industry appears to be Long-Term Debt 72,355,471 0.40 Cum.Pfd.Stk. 1, 959, 691 shs. Common Stock 2,677,483 shs. making a rapid comeback in profitability and would seem to offer the investor attractive opportunities for capital appreciation. One of the most profitable of all domestic paper Sales 1967-E Sales 1966 135,000,000 123,890,000 Earn. Per Sh.1967-E Earn. Per Sh. 1966 4 4 . . 50-4 36 . 60 companies, Great -gin of almost 24, e to benefit frtthe ti i several yea rg 0 producers, a ntin with a profit mar rtibularly well situated e ands of the next U. S. '-based newsprint approximately 5 of total Mkt. Range 1966-67 49-30 1/8 , n, Great Northern recently has – . -.- -. – if' its.production into such areas as specialty printing papers and lineria per for the packaging ind1!-stry. These activities now account for respectively. The rapid growth of magazine and book publi t; demand for printing papers will exceed project- ions now being ma f e rs. This is likely to prove especially true in the field of textbook puo . important factor in printing papers, Great Northern should be a direct ben this trend. The higher intere arges and unexpected costs incident to the 50 million expansion program now nearing mpletion at the Georgia containerboard plant held first half earnings to only an 8 increase over the 1. 87 reported in 1966's first six months, despite a sharp gain in operating profits. Already announced price increases for newsprint, to take effect July 1st, should provide a boost in final-half results. For the fiscal year ending September 30, minor improvement over fiscal 1966 results is antiCipated with estimates approximating 4.55 a share However, the new production facilities should be in full swing during most of fiscal 1968, and industry specialists feel that net income in the area of 5.00 to 5.50 a shar would not seem an unreasonable estimate. If the 7/0 investment credit is restored and made retroactive, GPP could substantially reduce its 1967 tax bill, perhaps by as much as 2.5 million. This alone could add between 20 and 25 a share to 1967 earnings estimates. This anticipated earnings improvement is predicated on an economy that will permit th industry to operate at a high level of production. If the economic downswing now in progress continues through the June quarter, GPP's earnings this year may show only slight improvement over 1966 figures. The primary attraction here, however, is the improved earning pow that has been built into the company and the potentially impressive gains seen for several years ahead. Directors, in reflection of their optimism, recently increased the quarterly dividend to 30 a share. From a technical point of view, the base that has been building since the middle of last year has created an area of firm support starting around the 38 level. There is a minor amount of overhead resistance between 45 and the all-time high of 49. While our initial price objective is in the 68-70 area, we are carrying a longer-term goal near 90. Added to our Recommended List's Price Appreciation section on March 17 at 37 3/4, we again recom mend the stock for purchase. Dow-Jones Ind. 883.18 Dow-Jones Rails 230.52 HARRY W. LAUBSCHER for ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This mark efomr.mDlaot1ioenn et le mw&a1s tter la publlBbed tor your and Informat hoabvtaei naend InfrtoemrestsoIunrcoers pWUeFebheubeevaendtosebllet hreelisaebcleu,r b iti ion and 0 no ut we do not es referred to t an offel' hgeuraeirna.ntee to Bell or a solicitation to buy any Ita accuracy. Walston II Co., Inc. l!eCurltJes dI8CWUJed. The and Ita officers dlreeton In. or WN.801 f' – …

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 28, 1967

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 28, 1967

Tabell's Market Letter - April 28, 1967
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Walston &Co. —-Inc ;….;……;..- -fiLe MUNICIPAL BONDS UNDERWRITERS MUTUAL fUNDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COA.ST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 28, 1967 II The stock market this week reached a newall-time high! This piece of intelligence may be news to those who think of the market in terms of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and who are well aware of the fact that this index was over 1000 in February 1966 vs. an intra-day high of 903.73 on Friday. It is a fact, however, that most of the indicators of stock market performance did this week reach levels higher than they have ever ach ieved in the past. The New York Stock Exchange Index led off the parade, closing at 51. 08 on Tuesday compared 1966 closing high of 51. 06. On Thursday, the Standard & Poor's 425-Industrial Stock Index reached a closing high of 100.91 and an intra-day peak of 101. 36. Both of these were in excess of comparable 1966 peaks. The Standard & Poor's 500-Stock Composite was briefly above its closing high on Friday before late profit-taking dampened Friday's rally, but it also posted a new intra-day peak. The laggardness of the Dow, of course, still provides the gloom-and-doom theorists with something to fall back upon. This decreasing but still vocal min.ority can point to the Dow and still mutter dire forebodings about intermediate-term rallies in bear markets. It is probably safe to presume that we will continue to hear this sort of silliness until such time as the Dow also moves above its 1966 tp. The question at the moment, very simply, is, How up II If one looks only at the post-World-War II experience it is possible to simple rule, i. e., that bull markets move to a new high by I a u t . sort of thinking would lead one to conclude that various broad-base 0 i ntinue to achieve new peaks during 1967, and that the Dow eventually onf hese highs. Indeed, one interpretation of the chart pattern for the a d bear this out, yielding -possible objectives in the ll60-1240 e0 din the-109-ll8 range Standard & Poor's 500. However, e of historical precedents for bull mar- kets which fail to regain all t t previous downswing, or in which the the Dow and the Sta d the base forrped in & 5 ve reached the upside objectives indicated by – e r, 1966. Actually, it is 0 e extent an exercise in futility to make rigid prOjections about where any of th ices will eventually wind up. We stated in this letter on January 20th – ……. rhere is only one suitable course of action, and that is to own common stocks which appear to represent good value from a technical and fundamental viewpoint. It is our feeling that ore should be fully invested in such stocks, and that, if he is not in such a pOSition, he should utilize any minor weakness in the market to get that way. The only necessary addendum at this stage is that he should stay that way. At some future time, of course, we will undoubtedly see the sort of deterioration that characterizes a market topping. None of this sort of thing has occurred to date. Breadth continues to lead the market on the upside. Volume continues to expand and most longer-term volume series continue to be encouragirig. Rate-of-change indicators, far from turning down, have just recently begun to move into -po'sitive territory, confirming the probability that Oc tober 1966 saw a major stock market low. Now, deterioration could begin to show up at any time. It could start right now from around current levels, or it could begin much later and from much higher levels. In any case, the best course of action for the investor is to remain long of well chosen equities until there is some more persuasive reason than now exists to change this position. Dow-Jones Ind. 897.05 Dow-Jones Rails 231. 91 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWT;amb Thl, market letter Is Ptlbllahed for your convenience and Information And Is not an offer to seU or a aoIidtation to buy any IJeeUrities dlscWll!ed. The in- formation was obtfI.lned trom IIOUrees we believe to be reliable. but employeH mB,J have aD Interest In or pupebaae and sell the l!Ieeurltiea we do not guarantee referred to herein. Ita aecuraey. WBlaton & Co., Ine. and its officers. directors or

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