Viewing Year: 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 05, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 05, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - January 05, 1951
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… 'Walston.Hoffman &, Goodwin NEW YORK 5. N. Y 35 Wall Streot DIGBY 44141 PHILADELPHIA 2. PA. 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER ss'm TABELL'S MARKET LEnER LOS ANGELES Il. CALIF. 550 South Spring StrOl!t MADISON 93232 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF. 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 12700 The Dow-Jones industrial average decisively penetrated the long 236-220 range in which it had held for over three months to reach a high of 242.60 on Friday. The rails hit a high of 80.000 As noted in my letter of two weeks ago, an upside penetration of this area indicates an advance into the 240-250 range which was my maximum upside objective for 1950. At Friday's close both the short term and intermediate term indica- tors were in overbought territory. This is to be expected after an advance', of twenty points in the industrial average in the past sixteen trading days. At the moment, the public is eager to buy stocks at the highest level in twenty years. The fact that earnings and dividends for many companies most likely reached a peak in 1950 because of taxes, is ignored by the security buyer. His reasoning is that we now have a 501 dollar that . will be worth ess in purchasing power as the defense program expands This reasoning is good but may be premature by a year or two. Because of . the defense program, the government will do everything in its power to hold down the inflationary potential and thus keep down the cost of defense. We have actcally hac ,'. 501 dollar for the last few years during which time the averages sold as low as 160. It now seems hardly the tiI)le to initiate new purchases. Would rather buy when there is less competition on the buying side as during the various times this letter strongly recommended the purchase of stocks in the 160-170 range and again at 195-200 last July. With the public in a strong buying mood, the market could undoubted- ly work somewhat higher over the near term However, the risks of loss in a heavily invested position at this stage seem to outweigh the possibility of further wide appreciation. Would continue to exercise caution and have a large portion of trading funds liquid to await bargain levels. I believe the present market is much nearer the top of the 1951 range than the bottom, This letter has recently been advising the sale of individual securities in our recommended list that were purchased considerably below present levels. Some further profit taking is suggested belowo The figure in parenthesis is the originally recommended level and the last 'figure is Friday'S close. BETTER GRADE ISSUES American Home Products (25) 31 3/4 Standard Oil of Indiana (48) 62 5/8 Union Pacific (87) 106 1/2 MEDIUM GRADE ISSUES Burlington I'lills' (21) 31 7/8 Chicago Pneumatic Tool (28) 42 7/8 Chicago, Rock Island (28) 52 7/8 Distillers-Seagram (15) 28 3/4 International Minerals (17) 27 3/4 SPECULATIVE ISSUES Bohn Aluminum (25) 36 1/2 Budd Mfg. (9) 16 3/4 January 5, 1951 ClOSing Averages Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails 240.98 79.12 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN Thil memorandum II not to b. constru.d at u off.r or lolIcltation of off.rs to bllJ' or 11 any curlll. From tIm. to time Waldon, Hoffman & Goodwin may hll …. an Int.,.. In 10m. or all 01 the curltl mentioned h.reln. Thl fOI'901n9 mallrial has bien prlpar.d by UI a. a mattlr of informatIon only. It h. blls.d uoon informaflon b.II…..d rellebl. bllf not nlc.narlly compl.t., II not 9ullr.m..d as accurat. or final, and II not Int.nded to foreclose Indo pendent Inquiry.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 12, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 12, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - January 12, 1951
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———————————————————————- . Wolston.Hoffrn,on &, Goodwin NEW YORK 5, N. Y 35 Wall Street DIGBY 4-4141 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER SS'i'77 TABELL'S MARKET LETTER LOS ANGELES I J, CALIF 550 South Spring Street tv! AD ISO N 93232 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF. 2bS Montgomery Street SUTTER 12700 \ The industrial average pushed into the upper part of the 240-250 upside objective to attain a high of 245.87 on Fridayo The rail average also reached a new top at 83.01.. The graphs of individual issues continue to show extreme diversity. Some issues indicate moderately higher levels for the near term as well as considerably higher levels for the longer term. Other issues have reached their upside objectives and many of these have already formed distributive tops and could decline sharply. The apparent reason for the recent strength has been inflation or a flight from the dollar. This reasoning may be premature. Inflation in some form and higher earnings will ultimately result in the market reaching a higher level than 1929, but this will not happen in the next year or two. Inflation, at this time, is the last thing the government desires. It would greatly increase the dollar cost of the defense program. So far, the steps taken to halt inflation have been relatively mild. They could, and undoubtedly will, become more drastiC. In my opinion, the main motivating force in the market, for the next two years, will be earnings and dividends, not inflation. With a large defense program, earnings before taxes will be at a high level for most companies, but earnings after taxes will tell the storyo The new tax bill is relatively mild. The normal tax has been raised from 38 to 47. All earnings above 85 of the average earnings of the three best years of the 1946-1949 period will be subject to a 77 excess profits tax. In no event shall more than 62 of earnings be taxable. The impact on individual companies will be quite diverse as illustrated below in the amount a company can earn before being subject to excess profits tax. Company Price Atlantic Coast Line 71 Jones & Laughlin 53 National Supply 22 New York Central 24 Pacific Mills 46 EPT Exempt . . Company Price 21.00 AllieChemical 60 7.90 Amer.Cyanamid 74 5.07 duPont 85 8.50 General Elec. 51 9.05 National Lead 68 EPT.Exempt. 3.18 3.23 3.00 3.38 3.06 These estimates are crude and are not accurate. They are based sim- ply on 85 of the best three-year average and do not include many relief provisions in the new tax law such as credit for capital additions, etc. The rail exemptions are based on invested capital provisions rather than average earnings. Despite the approximations, they are roughly indicative of the situation. The airlines and utilities, due to special exemptions, are also relatively favored. A further increase in taxes is being conSidered. This might possibly ,7r0esuoltf in a 55 normal tax and pre-tax earnings. This an 85 excess profits tax, and a limit of obviously would result in lower earnings for both groups outlined above. The stocks most vulnerable to taxes are the better grade stocks that are components of the various averages. A decline in these issues could cause a severe decline in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and bring the more favorably situated issues temporarily below present levels. Continue to advise caution and profit-taking on strength and await reactionary periods to add to holdings of favored issues. January 12, 1951 Closing Averages Dow Jones Industrials Dow Jones Rails EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN 243.81 81.63 Thi! memorandum Is not hi an Int.r.st In some to or bt all constru.d an offer Of' lollcltatlon of of tile securities mentioned h.r.ln. The offers to bur or ,en any ,kurlll. From tim. to time Waldo,, Hoffman foregolnq mate,lal hat bn prepared by us IS II matter of Information o&nlYG'dolotdwIsinbameady ueon Information b.lleyed reUable but not neussartl, complete, Is not QUarentMd al .accurate or final, lind Is not Intended to foredo,. Indepen ent inqUiry,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 19, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 19, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - January 19, 1951
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Walston.Hoffman &, Goodwin NEW YORK 5. N. Y 35 Wall Street DIGBY 44141 PHILADELPHIA 2. PA 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 55917 TABELL'S MARKET LEnER LOS ANGELES 13. CALIF 550 South Spring StrMt MADISON '13232 SAN FRANCISCO 4. CALIF 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 1-2700 The industrial average at Thursday's high of 249.07 had reached the upper range of the 240-2S0 upside objective outlined by my technical work. The intermediate term indicator, which gave a buy signal late in December at 234 in the Dow-Jones industrials, has entered overbought terri- tory. A sell signal has not yet been given but the formation suggests that a sell indication will be given some time within the next week. First sup ort would be met at the 236 level. Regardless of the broad implications of the averages, individual companies and groups show extremely diverse patterns. The following com- ments illustrate this pOint. AIRLINE COMPANIES were my favorite group for 1950. They have advan- ed sharply but they continue my favorite group for 19S1. They should be bought on all price dips. These issues have the possibility of ShOW.'ng the sharpest 19S1 earnings increase of any group. The graph patterns J indicate higher levels over the longer term (i.e. American Airlines Qr5, Eastern Airlines 30-34). The CHEMICAL STOCKS are not only approaching upside objectives but . also appear to have potential distribution patterns. This strong growth group will temporarily be hard hit by E.P.T. Allied Chemical (60 3/4), American Cyanamid (79 3/4), and duPont (8S) are now selling at about 12-14 times their 19S1 estimated earnings on the rates of the present tax law. These tax rates may be increased further. While these issues could move moderately higher, the snaIl percentage upside appreciation does not warrant further holding. DEPARTMENT STORE ISSUES are just starting to break out of their long term accumulation areas and indicate hiher levels. They should be bought on price declines. Allied Stores (474)' Associated Dry Goods (22), Lerner (24 3/4), National (21), May Department (60) are on my recommended list. ENDICOTT JOHNSON, selling at 31, with a 1946 high of Sl 1/8 and a 1947 low of 27C, is reasonably priced. Book value is around 64 a share and the stock has a good E.P.T. base. Appeare to be building up a st'.'ong potential base pattern. Could receive substantial government orders. FANSTEEL METALLURGICAL (18 1/4) listed on the New York Curb, has an extremely strong technical pattern. One of the few companies that may show higher 1951 earnings after taxes. Buy on all minor declines. There is support at the 17-16 level. GENERAL ELECTRIC (S2 1/2), appears to be overpriced in comparison with WESTINGHOUSE ELECTRIC (36 1/4). On the basis of present tax law, Westinghouse's estimated earnings after taxes for 1951 should be quite close to General ElectriC, although the stocks ae selling 16 pOints apart. Possible calling of Westinghoue convertible bonrs has been holding back the stock. Although 19S1 earnings of both companies may be below 19S0, Westinghouse appears more attractive than General Electric. PAPER STOCKS appear to be fully valued at present levels. They have shown excellent appreciation but have, in most cases, reached their upside objectives. Would sell such issues as Crown Zellerbach (SO 7/8) . and International Paper (54 3/4) The earnings of the PETROLEUM COMPANIES will not be greatly effect-' ex by increased taxes because of depletion allowances. Estimates are that .19S1 earnings may be slightly above 19S0. However, most of the stocks in the group have about reached their longer term technical objectives and appear fully priced. Possible exception is PLYMOUTH OIL (56 3/8). which has a very strong technical pattern. Stock should be bought during re- actions to around the 50 level. . UNITED MERCHANTS (16 S/8) has a strong technical pattern, a good tax base and an above average yield. Appears undervalued in relation to other textile issues. EDMUND W. TABELL January 19, 1951 WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWING Closing Averages Dow Jones IndustrialS 246.76 Dow Jones Rails 83.81 ,,,,.,..fThis haY. m.morudum Is not lin in 10m. to or b. all conltrued 1 an 0' ft',. MClll'm., oHef or sol1c1tllltlon of mentioed h.,.; The offOfIe',. ttNonqburyMot.rti.1 11haII.nybuncurPltn.p..tFromby tim. U to ,a time Waldon Hoffman maat of ;otm.aflon & GoodIn may only. It I. ba,ed unon inl!)rmat'on b.II,v.d unabl. but not nlc.uarlly complete, Is not 'i!lliIrarrleld as accurt. or final, and Is not Intendld to forlclo,. Indopendent inqul,..,.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 26, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 26, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - January 26, 1951
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. ,. , Walston.Hoffmon &Goodwin NEW YORK 5. N. Y 35 Wall Streot DIGBY 4-4141 PHILADELPHIA 2. PA '..20 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 5,5977 TABELL'S MARKET LEnER LOS ANGELES 13. CALIF 550 South Spring Strsl't MADISON 9 3232 SAN FRANCISCO 4. CALIF 265 Montgomery Street SUnER 1-2700 The intermediate term indicator gave a sell signal at Tuesday's close of 245.30. The last buy Signal was at 234 in late December. The market declined on Thursday to reach a low of 240.11 on the industrials and 80.34 on the rails as compared with the recent highs of 249.07 and 84.84. This 'sharp decline brought about a temporarily oversold condition and the indus-' ' trials rallied back to 244.51 by Friday's close. The intermediate terrr. sell Signal suggests caution, particularly in issues that have had sharp price advances. Expect continued backing and 'filling in the 250-236 range for some further time. This action may bUild up a potential distributional area. Graphs of individual issues continue to show diverse patterns with some issues quite vulnerable in the event of a general market aecline while other issues are near good support levels. ALLIED STORES was originally recommended for purchase at 34. Friday's close was 47 3/8. While this stock still indicates higher levels, my tech- nical work leads me to believe that other issues in the retail group may show greater percentage appreciation from here on. Suggest taking profits on Allied Stores and purchasing Associated Dry Goods, 23 1/4, Lerner Stores, 26 5/8, or National Department Stores, 21 3/8. All three of these issues are on my recommended list. AMERICAN & FOREIGN POWER 2nd pfd. closed at 16 on Friday. The stock was originally recommended at 14. The recently proposed reorganization plan deals unfavorably with this issue so it is dropped from the recommended list. Suggest switching into the airline issues on our recommended list. AMERICAN NEWS appears to be behind the market. The stock reached a high of 60 in 1946. Friday's close was 35 1/2. The stock has held in the 36-29 range since mid-1947. 1950 dividends were 2.50 a share. Average earnings for the three best years of 1946-1949 were about 4.96 so it has a good E.P.T. base. 1950 earnings will most likely be slightly below the 3.51 of 1949 but with increasing travel by both the military and civilians during the next few years, the outlook anc. earnings for this company should, improve. Technicall, an upside breakout of the 36-29 trading range to 37 would indicate a sizeable advance. With the general market close to the highs, new buying Should be con- fined to issues that are still depressed but show possible Signs of a turn for the better. Such issues would not be too vulnerable in case of a general market decline. The motion picture group appears to fit into this category. Two low priced issues, Columbia Pictures (12 3/4) and Universal Pictures (10 3/8) have potentially attractive patterns. Tile lows of rece,t years have been 7 3/4 and 7 as against 1946 highs of 36 3/4 and 49 7/e. Both stocks are recommended as speculations. PACIFIC MILLS was originally recommended at 30. Friday's close was 46 1/2. While this stock may sell off somewhat in a market decline, its favorable long term pattern indicates that it should continue to be held and bought on declines to around 40. Suggest taking profits on Anderson Claton, recommended at 55 and selling at 67, and Cannon Mills, recommended ,at 8 and selling at 56 5/8, and switching into Pacific Mills at around 40. The stock is slightly lower quality than the other two issues but its very ,favorable E.P.T. base (average 1946-1948 earnings over 10) places it in a , very attractive position. REYNOLDS METALS was conSistently recommended in this letter at the equivalent of about 20 after taking the recent 10 stock dividend into con- , sideration. A high of about 41 has been reached on the new stock.Friday's 'close was 39 1/2. The stock has met some supply recently and, although it indicates higher levels over the longer term, suggest taking profits in hope of repurchasing at lower levels. WESTERN AUTO SUPPLY should be watched closely on all price declines. Friday's close was 45. The stock was originally recommended at 40. The stock has a good technical pattern and sold as high as 90 in 1946. Stock has a ' good tax base with average 1946-1949 earnings of over 7.00. Estimated earn ings for 1950 are 7.00. EDMUND W. TABELL January 26, 1951 WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN ,', ,,-, ,;' ;

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 02, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 02, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - February 02, 1951
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Walston.Hoffman &Goodwin 'NEW YORK S, N Y 35 Wo!ll Street DIGBY 0141011 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA, 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 5-5977 TABELL'S MARKET LETTER LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF, SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 550 South Spring Street 265 Montgomery Street MADISON 9-3232 SUTTER 12700 The market continued its advance throughout the week and both aver- ages reached new high territory on Friday with the industrials at 253,71 and the rails at 89.64. This is an advance of 13,60 points in, the indus- trials and 9.20 points in the rails in seven trading ,days. 'D''ing this period the rails closed higher each day and the industrials c;'sed higher in six of the seven days. The market is overbought on both short term and intermediate term work and a technical correction, or at least a consolida- tion, would be normal action. In observing the work of individual graphs, it is noted that an in- creasing number of issues in the better grade group are reching their up- side objectives, although they have as yet formed no clear ;,It distribu- tional patterns. This may take some further time of backing and filling around the highs. On the other hand, some of the more speculative secondary issues indicate the possibility of moderately higher leves before they reach their individual highs. Recently, the CHEMICAL GROUP was mentioned in this letter and the thought expressed that, while the individual issues might work moderately higher, they were approaching their technical upside objectives. Now most stocks in this group are at or very close to these objectives. EVERSHARP , INC. Closing price 13 5/8, was originally recommended for purchase at 10. This stock reached a high of 56 in 1946 and subsequentJy declined to 7. Technically, a good base was forraed in the 7-11 range 'liit'! an eventual upside indic tion cf 20-22. There is some .' .y at 13 to 15 in which area the stock i is recently held. It would apyear possible the stock may attempt to uove toward its longer term objective. The stock is paying at the rate of 1 annually and demand for the company's line of writing ;,!lstruments alid razor blades should remain strong. Some new prod- ucts may Je added.' Company has a fair ta;, base with average earnings of' 2.33 for the best tree years. HEWITT-ROBINS. Closing price 23 J/2, is on my recommended list at an origin 1 price of . The stock has a very 'i.lteresti!lg technical pat . . ter'1. Abi.ty to break out of the two-year 14-22 r2.nge ilc,icates c.' inter- 'led iate tel'm uptrend. The 1946 high was 39. The two divisions of the compars, rubber conveyor equipment and foam rubber, have long term growth prospects, Defense work should offset any restrictions on normal opera- tions. Estimated earnings for 1950 are around 4.00 and 2.15 in diVidends were paid. Company has fair E.P.T. base of 3.10 for best three years of 1946-1949 period. LOWENSTEIN. ClOSing price 35 7/8, was originally recommended at the equivalent of 19 for the present stock, At present levels it has almost doubled in price since entering my list. Suggest taking profits and switching into PACIFIC MILLS (43) on a reaction to around the 40 level. MAY DEPARTME)\'T STORES. ClOSing )(',2 -;'2, was orginally recommended at 48. On Friday, the Directors raisea lle dividend aLj recommended a 100 stock dividend. The stock rallied eight pOints Friday to close at 72. 'It is closer to its upside objective than other issues on our recommended list. Suggest taking profits and switching into KRESGE (38 1/4), or Y;'5CRORY STORES (35) which are issues of similar quality. SYLVANIA ELECTRIC. ClOSing price 28 7/8, Lnary broke out of the l0ng trading range between 12 and 28 in which it as ,e1., sin'ee late 1946 .l),n a tec nieal vier.'p,)1t this ;,etion indicates higher levels for Sylva– nia over the long term, Would buy on declines to 27-26 area. Estimated e;rnings for 1950 ar(' , JO and dividend was 2.00 annually. There are good growth possibilities in this electronic, television and lighting equipment company. ' February 2, 1951 Closing Averages DO\'l-Jones Industrials 252.73 Dow-Jones RailS 89.12 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN This memordum b not to b. construed illS an olfer or solicitation of ofl.rs to buy or sell any securities From time to time Waldo, Hoffman & Goodln may ha…. an Int.relt in some or all of the securities men.tioned her.in. The foregoing material has been prep3'ed by us as a matter of Information only It based UDon information believed reliabl. but not nQuUllirily c.ompl.te, Is not ljIuaranfeed o!s accurate or final, find is not Intended to forocloSll Indo pendent Inquiry z.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 09, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 09, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - February 09, 1951
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odw.en ,' -' ,9,.,0-','S' —–,,'-',-'7.–, ,-'n,',,.-'- ' 1WI1WlTtO ItOll Hoff.nOll '&' G'O ;.- —-t–'-,'.,—,————–/-i,,/,r,',-,-,—,-,r,fi.;;.-,, f!S tf,N.enC ofocr t, i/ I) NEW YORK 5, N, Y PHILADELPHIA 2, PA f'; 3S Wall Street 1420 Walnut Street N'/. DIGBY 4.4141 PENNYPACKER 5Sm iW1'1j; – – – – – – – – – – – – TABELL'S MARKET LEnER , –'i LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF, SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF, 550 South Spring Street MADISON 9212 2bS Montgomery Stteet SUTTER 12700 \,. 'I –,J.!, p -'' N.. ,1I, ;,.' f;' After reaching new highs early in the week, the general market ; li.\iturned somewhat irregular although individual issues continued to move ;' I,'f,!,,ahead. 1!)1 pernsT.heTghreapghres a 0t f ir;di''t maJorl id y u alf 0 Sthtockhsi hcontine dtobShtOtW extrellelJt' dkiverse e g er prlce e er-gra.e s oc s have ,;,.,' i'/;)not only about reached the upside objectives outlined by the three-month ; )/220-236 trading range of late 1950, but also, in wany instances, have ;., t;;approached the objective outlined by the longer term patterns, It wou!.j t f'isappoeuartwtehigaht e th d e by chanc the e ri of sk further wide appreciation in this type of isue of a possible decline. On the other hand, in ,, ;!/contrast with this action, there are a great many secondary issues that ;' have strong technical patterns. Many of these issues o.re selling closer .- t',;to their four-year lows than to their 1946 hig, 3. This' type of stock, ; nl';'jprovided the fundamental background is sound, seens to offer better appre- \i,ciation possibilities than the issues that have already advanced sharply, P';',and would be less vulnerable in the event of market declines. ;U!i; It Fill be iLter6sti;-; to watch the action of General 1'!otors (51 '( i over the near term. General r10tors reached its high of 54 3/4 on October -' ;;5th, more than four months ago, The induDtrial average at that ti,ne Vias ,-' around 232 in contrast with the recent high of 256 and a recent high in ; iijGeneral Motors of 52 1/4, The stock, in almost every instance in the past, i)has made its high four months or so before the general market. For example,c;' h'General Motors reached its high in 1929 in 11arch and the averages rea2ned ' l their high in September 0 The industrial averae;e reached its high in arch ,' 1;1; )1m9a3r7keatndreaGcehneedrailt M s otors high reached its peak in in \jay 1'lhile Genera Noveri,ber 1936. l llotors made it s In 1946, top in Jathnuearb, ;Thus, if General Motors fails to penetrate the high of 54 3/4 of r,lOre than 't \,, four months ago, it may mean, if past precedent is followed, that the mar- -, (,- ket is near an important top, C r,' Lambert Co. (24 5/8) is an iseue tilat has failed to participate in the current rise. It declined from a 1946 high of 68 to a low of l 1/4, i' ;;,At present levels of around 24, with estirlated earnings of 2.75 and a ;'' 1',)1.50 dividend, the stock appears reasorably priced. Through a subsidiary; , f,, compar;y is engaged in the ethical drug field in addition to Listerine and ,,', plastlc s. ' a- U.S.Rubber (58 3/4) was mentioned recently as a backward issue in '1 ;;/ the rubber group. ,3ince that time, it has reached new high territory at . ,, 1f,';;'; rt 59 3/8. U.S .Rubber has ,just raised the quarterly dividend to 1. buy this issue during periods of market decline. There is strong in the low 50s. For long term investment, suggest the folloHing issues in 00. Would' support t'',;',' ny ;1) recommended list. The yield is good on the average and as they have not , I risen sharply, they are less vulnerable it' the event of a marlcet decline gl -I f Stock f; Price 1946 High Stock iPrice 1946 ',' HiO'h I\I lpha Port .Cement 37 39 rkCrory Stores 35 ,unerican News c Armstrong Cork H C. I.T.Financial 35 52 47 60 l'ercantile Stores 22 35 65 ' Helville Shoe 25 29 63 NontgOl ry Ward 73 104 F1,1, Commercial Credit Endicott Johnson 50 32 o'J, Fairbanks Morse Kresge 51 38 h fr !( '1,,'11' . , .. 1950 High J t fFebruary 9, 1951 ,', Closing Averages Iifi;,!. '.f' Dov! Jones Ind. 254.24 Dow Jones Rails 89.73 wI,; r,) 67' Otis Ele Jator 38 51 United Car'ton 47 88 Western Auto Sup, Y 47 45 llestinghouse Elec. 37 13'7 gh.f-il'o 0 ., ' EDI'rurm 1,1. TJ.BELL EL3TOlJ EOFFI\1AN \ GOOmIIN 42 45 90 41 l i,;J' tJ t'; Thh memorandum h not to b. construed 61 an off.r or IOUella'ion of off.r. to buy or ,.11 any secur.ties From tim. to tim. Wallton, Hoffman & Goodwin ma, have an lnt.red in some or .,/1 of the securlhes mentionfld herein. The fore90ing material has been prepared by us as a metter of informetion only. It is bas.d upon Information bel1evld r.llabl. but not nlcenadly complete, Is I\Ot ;uarantud as eccurate or final, and is not Intended to foreclose Independent InqUiry. ;-. '-,/ '-'!1J)R..2 ii-,-1r-f…' ,r,;rt'-..;;.-.r-.–. . .' I.' ,.,-7 ,'r.-7 '.';i –''-7,'.,-,,–;'-;'i-;t–;'I.'-;- ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 16, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 16, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - February 16, 1951
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,'-' – ' t' ,,'' II-'' f'-It,, i; ' ' ,- .'- NEW YORK S, N, Y. 35 WII Street — DIGBY 4-4141 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 Wolnut Street PENNYPACKER S59n f'-! TABELL'S MARKET LEnER LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF. SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF. 550 South Spring Street 265 Montgomery Street MADISON 93232 SUTTER 12700 Since early 1948, this letter has conSistently recommended the purchase of the higher grade, dividend-paying issues and as con- Sistently expres2ed the opinion that they would be the market leader; of the first phase of the advance. In the advance r; 'C' 160 in the Dow- Jones industrials in June, 1949 to the recent high of 257.06, this type of issue has been in the foreground. Spurred by demand from , — institutional investors, some of the investment growth stocks have advanced from 50 to 100 in price over a two-year period. They are f, ,.; no longer on the bargain counter. Due to higher txes, earnings in 1951 will probably be below 1950 and the price advance has brought ,' ' yields from around the 6 level to below 5 and i, some cases close to 4. Whl1e the longer term prospects remained cndimtnished, present t ,-, price levels appear to have adequately discounted this fucure possibil- l'G;, . In view of the current uncertainty, I culd prefer to aViai t a more advantageous price level for new purchases. In many cases, – , the teclmical patterns of the growth investment stocks show that they have reached, or almost 'reached, the upside objectives outlined by their base patterns. On the other hand, there are other good quality issues that appear to have not yet discounted their possibil- itc .. Some of these a secondary, more speculative issues. Others are stocks of better known companies. Whle they,too, might sell off in a market decline, they appear to have better defensive possibil ities than the issues which have already advanced sharply BEST & CO. appears moderately priced at around present levels of 31. It has a good E.P.T. base with an average of about 4.50 a share for the best three of the 1946-1949 years. Estimated . earnings for 1950 are 3.75. The stock is paying 2 annually to -, , yield over 6. The technical pattern is promising. The price range of 32-23 has held for almost fc,', years and there is an up- side potential of an advance to the 1946 high of 52 1/2. Should be bought on all dips for semi-investment holding and chances for long term appreciation. , BOND STORES has been showing an improving technical pattern of late. This retail clothing store chain expanded a bit too rapidly in the mid-1940s and the stock declined from a 1946 high of 48 1;4 to a 1950 low of 12 1/8. Company appears to have turned the corner and earnings for 1951 should top the estimated 2.00 of 1950. Company has a good E.P.T. base due to earnings of 5.93 in 1946, 5.17 in 1947 and 3.05 in 1948. The technical pattern suggests a potential accumulation area in the 19-13 range with an upside possibility of , ' 26-28 for the first phase of the advance. Buy on minor weakness. Present dividend rate is 251 quarterly. The next payment will go ex- dividend March 1st, payable March 14th. ,, UNION CARBIDE, at the recent top of 59, seems high enough for the moment. Earnings for 1950 reached a new peak at 4,31 a share. Earnings for the best three years of 1946-199 average around 3.30 so its E.P.T. exemption is only fair, The stock yields 4.3 ., ; ,, on the 2.50 dividend. Price appreciation or the near term appears limited. The stock has reached its upside objective on the techninal gauges and due to its sharp rise (for an issue of its quality) it appears somewhat vulnerable. Would withhold purchases of this ex- ,' cellent quality gro;th issue until a good reaction corrects its technical pattern. February IG,1951 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN I— Closing Averages Dow-Jones Industrials ,– Dow-Jones Rails I' , I This mllfflOroJdum if not to b. COt!Jtru.d af an off.r or ,olicltation of oU.rs to buy or HII oIInV sicurifil' From fime fo timl Waldon Hoffman Goodwin may 11.! haVI a.n intlre!t in loml or all of th Ilcuritiis mlntlned brei!'! Th foreC)oinC) aterial has been prepared by UI as e metter of i'ormation only. It 1 baled ; upon Information b.lllved rillabil but not necessarily complete, b not ;uaranteed as accuratl 0' 'inal, and h not Intended to foreclose independent inquiry -5\'7–,;,'tiJ.1 !f'Jt,\;, '1!.'– –..5''—!;- -'- -)—–,- '' ';tj ''1-' 'f,-1!-r – '-!;;;

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 23, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 23, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - February 23, 1951
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,,,,- ,,;'u '–'-,;;'X1.-;' pr'\,', Wolston.IIoffmon &- Goodwin (';''–'-,' ';'' -',''''I'''–if; /,i;, NEW YORK 5, N. Y. q';.w-n& -;or PHILADELPHIA 2, PA, LOS ANGELES 13. CALIF. SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF. ;I,'I ',L 35 Wall Street DIGSY 4,4141 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER ,,'''' TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 550 Os';,,t,t 265 l!;;oSt,t s 1t 1 f!\ h'Ii e'l' ',.,' /'1; 1';' Last Tuesday's downside penetration of the fourteen-day trading ',,range between 256 and 251 brings up the possibility that a longer term top t;distributional pattern may be in the process of formation. It is too ,,1; ' l ;,.'f'f '','; ,- r Ii,,'early to' be certain that such is the case. So far the decline has held ,, . ;Within the bounds of a normal minor technical correction. However, certain ,-'; pof our volume and supply-demand gauges are showing indications of a de- i; f,,1teriorating technical pattern. When this is added to the fact that the '1 ),Dow-Jones industrial average has reached its long-term objective of 250 ;.- !Eand that many individual issues have also reached their individual upside –', ;'objectives, it seems advisable to exercise extreme caution at this stage ie-I II,', of the market pattern and to watch technical action very closely 0 \1 k As yet the technical background suggests the formation of only ,,relatively minor tops in a few groups. However these tops could easily !,'broaden either on a fUrther rally or at levels somewhat below present i;,, '' .; r;prices. Until such a broadening pattern occurs, downside implications ',-, I', are not clear. It might be interesting to note the normal downside tech- ',. I,;;,nical corrections inherent in the present pattern ;;–C 1;1. The minor trend has been up since the late January low of about i (,240, The advance to the recent high of about 256 was sixteen points 0 A i,,normal one-third to two-thirds correction of this advance would bring the f x l1ri;;T,iauveesrdagaey'bTs ahcleokwintotoefr2m2504e-8d2.i74a85te.. This has approximately been reached at last uptrend dates from the November-December lows of i',J i(il around 221, A one-third to two-thirds correction of the thirty-five point n L;advance would bring the average back to 244-232. While not yet definitely',;; t;;indicated, such a correction is very possible. There is good support at ;, tthe 240-236 level. !' The long-term uptrend dates from the June, 1949 low of 160. A i;; ,, ' ;one-third 1bring the to two-thirds correction of average back to the 224-192 the ninety-six point advance area, The present technical would pattern ;f-, 1. does not yet suggest such a decline 0 The potentia top pattern must Vbroaden considerably before such a correction would be indicated, F The technical patterns of individual groups are quite diverse ';; ,/; ;c,- b-'with some groups appearing much more vulnerable than others, Here is a ' , !t''broad classification I '!cI MOST VULNERABLE LEAST VULNERABLE 't1,- ;,'',I, ; ,,-, ,' Automobile 1;-, Chemicals Airlines Building Materials -/i ,It' P',– aCopper & Le d Investment Cos. Metal Fabricating Mining & Smelting Can Drugs Finance Companies Natural Gas r, Z;,.', '' rt'.,,l' Oils Paper I '- Rails Office Equipment Printing & Publishing Retail Trade , f,I' ,,- c! ,– I,'-' r STeti1es Tires & Rubber Shoes Theatres & Motion Pictures Utilities , ', ( ;, L, The other groups are in an in-between position, l,. r- V,' ,-,;, February 23, 1951 EDMUND W0 TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN , ' Closing Averages . – Dow-Jones Ind. 252.18 Dow-Jones Rails 86.51 t ' i7–/)' This m.morandllm il not to b. construed as on offor or solicitation of offlrs to buy or s,1I any ',curilil' From time to time Waldon, Hoffmlln & Goodwin may hay. an interest In some or ell of the securities mentioned herein. The lorl90in9 mllterial has bien prepared by UI al a matter of information only. 11 IS baUld ;' c;, ; upon Information belilved reliable but not ne(.Stlril., complete, Is not uarant.ed 0/11 accurate or final, and is not intended to foreclose Independent InqUiry J;'i);Z;;S;';'o.-;'!;..rf'';.,i..1!!';!i–;;-z,!.;7E'.1!,'-J!!..J;.Yi..r;;-

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 09, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 09, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - March 09, 1951
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'-t J 't, ,''';,',,'' '7'\;J,''!!..',- -;.!,,-, ,' , NEW YORK 5, N. Y 35 W,II Street DIGBY 4.4141 PHILADELPHIA 2. PA, 1420 Wo!Ilnut Street PENNYPACKER 55977 I' TABELL'S MARKET LEnER ,',,I' i''-f..,.. LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF, SAN FRANCISCO 4. CALIF, SSO South Spring Street 2bS Montgomery Street MADISON '.3232 sunER '2700 tl There is little new to be said about the technical action of the market. Both averages continue to hold in narrow trading shelves and , the volume of trading is at the lowest pace for the past six months. ; Until the volume increases, there is little indication of the direction 4 of the next near term.move. So far, it appears the the lowered volume is due mainly to dryi;g up of the buying urge. As yet, there has been .;;-, little increase in selling pressure. If that current uncertainty ' causes increased average to react liquidation, would expect the to the 240-236 support level. Dow-Jones industrial ;, Such a correction, if it occurs, might result in a good buying it level for iSSues in favorable groups. As has been stated many times before in this letter, the airlines have extremely favorable technical ! patterns. This continues to be true despite the fact that this group ;f has advanced sharply since my original recommendation. ;,,,,. There is ample justification for the favorable technical impli- ; cation of this group. It is the one group that appears fairly certain ;' to show increased earnings over 1950 despite higher taxes. The first quarter of the year is usually the worst earnings period for most air- lineS and the result is quite often a loss for this period. January- , P J' February trast to earnings this year are in the black losses in 1950. Continuance of the for many companies in consharp increase in passenger t' traffic and load factors should accentuate this upward trend. ; Despite the advance in the group, individual issues are still ;; selling considerably below their 1946 highs as noted in the table .' below. Would buy the issues in our recommended list during periods t of' market recession Price Now 1945-1946 High Alaska Airlines 10 American Airlines American Air.,pfd. 15' 1/2 84 Braniff Airways 13 1/2 Capital AirlineS 16 Chicago & Southern 12 ,, Colonial Airlines 10 ,,t,.,.i Continental Air 9 1/2 Delta Airlines 23 Eastern Airlines 22 Mid-Continent Air 11 National Airlines 15 National Aviation 20 Northeast Air 6 Northwest Air 14 ,, Northwest Air, pfd. 21 Pan-American 11 T-W-A United Airlines 25 28 United Air.pfd 117 , Western Airlines 14 16 1/2 19 7/8 98 1/4 37 1/2 49 3/4 35 45 29 1/2 69 1/2 33 1/2 21 34 1/4 32 7/8 25 1/4 63 1/2 29 79 62 1/2 40 1/2 EDMUND W. TABELL March 9, 1951 WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN , ,', ClOSing Averages Dow-Jones Industrials 252.75 Dow-Jones Rails 84085 ,' Thh memorandum h not to be construed al an offer or solicitation of offen to buy or 1111 any IIcuritl From time to time Wallton, Hoffman & Goodwin may have an Int.re.t in lome or ,II of the securities mentioned her.ln, Th. foregoinq mat.rlal has been prepared b.,. 1,11 as a matter of information onl.,. It is b.n.d ,'''' upon information b.lleved r.liabl. but not neussarll.,. complete, I. no' ;uarant..d a accurate or final, and il not intended to foreclo Independent inqUiry. ..'-' ;0 . . '-. ;r-,'.Ajft,;/l- – ,, 1nJ.' 1'; ;.-,'-\7i;,r —,,,),'\ ; '; J'., '-'-;; 7 ,f, ,;f '-/'-;- ,', p-; ''– -,;;,' -,..,'/ ' '–';;' –, '/,,, ,-,/,,!, '-' ,-;- \ I , ',' ,; ',',\

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 16, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 16, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - March 16, 1951
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– – – I \ —;–' -!—-j '-'-\-'';',,' Wal s tOD. HoffDlan t;.. Goodwin ,''iJ',,;'''i-';''sX';Fi ',' ;UJ.d ako NW YORK 5, N. Y PHILADELPHIA 2, PA. LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF ', 3S WU Street \ DIGBY 44141 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 55m 550 South Spring Street MADISON '.1232 ( T-ABEL-L–'SM'-A-R–KET–L-En-E-R— SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF, 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 1.2700 , '–.,. -I ;,') During the past week, the month-old trading range of between Jt'oughly 257 and 249 on the Dow Jones industrials has been decisivly pene- 1–' ;'!trated on the downside. A low of 242.06 was reached on Thursday. The ,– ;rail'average, which has been in a definite downtrend since the 90.82 high (; ri;of early February, declined to a new low at 80.12. Volume increased as ;, the market weakened. A sharp rally on Friday brought the averages back to 'f ,1'249.33 and 82.94 . to ' ! The downside breakout places the market in an extremely defen- ' ,';sive position as far as the major trend is concerned. The distributional,,, ,, tops formed on both the various averages and on individual issues are rel- – ,-atively minor. They indicate, at the moment, no more than a decline to , ;,240-236 in terms of the Dow Jones industrials. A rally from Thursdays low — ''; of 242.06 or from a subsequent low in the 240-236 area, is the normal hi- ttechnical expectation at the moment. This rally will meet heavy upside ;—- ;, resistance first at 248-249 and then all the way up to the February high ; ;of 257.06. If, after a month or so, the advance fails to carry above the , ,February highs and subsequently falls below the low reached on the present ; i ;',ldecline, a major downtrend is indicated. The ultimate downSide objective ,(' '-, of such a possible pattern is not evident at the moment. It depends on f ;,ihow much of a distributional pattern is formed between 257.06 and what- , ,.( ;,, ever ipatt low ern. is reached on the present declining phase, if such is to be the 1'- i,,.'–o' ,,i This letter has been suggesting caution since late 1950. It j ,;has advised a gradual lightening of positions as each individual issue on ';1 our recommended list has reached its individual upside objective. As f'ii ;, these issues were originally recommended at considerably lower levels ,' (in early 1949 in the 160-180 area and again in July 1950 in the 195-205 , ,', area) this policy has resulted in substantial long term profits. Of 1' '\ course some of these issues have moved moderately higher but this letter does not concern itself with the minor trend. I continue to advise a 60 liquid position in accounts where 'l primary conSideration is long' term capital gains. It is my opinion that ,',' the market is in a consolidatil; )hase that may last from six months to a , , year. The outer limits of this consolidating phase are not clear at the ; ,, moment but the present pattern suggests something like 260 to 200 – ad- ;mittedly a wide area. During this phase, individual issues will offer i excellent buying opportunities. After the consolidating phase is com- ' pleted, much higher prices are indicated. , At the moment, the 40 of total funds invested should be con- ,',; centrated in groups with not only favorable long term implication – – '-; , , also good defensive qualities. Such groups include Airlines, Building '.Y Supplies, Department Stores, Finance Companies, Motion Pictures, Natural ) Gas, Office EqUipment, Printing and Publishing, Tobacco, Soft Drinks, 1 ', Utili ties and Variety Chains. . , ,, March 16, 1951 , CloSing Averages ,','I'i;' Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails ,' 248.62 82.69 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN , . ,l I ,- This m.morandlJ ' not to b. construfld as .lJp offer r soliclffon of offln t' bu or !eU any securities. From time to tim. Walston. Hoffman & Goodwin may haYI iI.1I Interest II) some or all. of the I.-CU mlntl.lmld h.rl/tl Th. fore;cllnq mafldl ho!I b.en prep.,..d by ut 015 a matter of .nformation only It is baled upon Information b.1JlIved r,lIbl. but not nflunar.i., compl.t., Is not ;ullranteed as accurat. or final, and is not .nfended to foreclon inde'Pendent inquiry ','-'I'LL..! L,,' ,,LL-!V-'LLII, ILL- IIL,'.,',I…' , -', ,;. L )' L L'L' L ',;','..',-,, -L'-LL'Lt,, ', ,.,.. .. . IX

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