Viewing Month: June 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 01, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 01, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - June 01, 1951
View Text Version (OCR)

— ——————– Walston Hofflllan c… Goodwin.–,,,',',,,,,-,-,.' '-,',,,, ,',''' '-,-,– ..; ',,',,,–'–,'co,' .! I, r( , ' 7,,-,, 1,,1,' , ,',', , ,!';,'ji; o-p,r4t!UN2 c/eo ., Ii,,;; b;;-t NEW YORK S, N. Y l t I 35 Well Street PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 Walnut Street LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF. SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF. 550 South Spring Street 265 Montgomery Street ' – ,01 ' '\ DIGBY 44141 ;''\(, PENNYPACKER 5S'n7 ;l5; TABELL'S MARKET LETTER MADISON 9232 SUTTER 1-2700 I t' , , '- . ii,; At Thursday's high of 251.68, the industrial average had recovered f',', kpproximately ten po;ints of the tllenty-two point dec line frol'1 the year's , i' ;'high. This should be a sufficient technical rebound. The very heavy supply !,,,ar\elaeari-tertmh e 250-255 advance. ra,;e most likely will prove to be a barrier to further If the market spends some time in tLi range, it Hill ',i i, ('9roaden the potential top formations in individual issues and in the general,', nlverages. VThen this pattern is completed, a clearer idea of the downside , l)jeC'Gi ves and buying ranges will be available. ,; f, At the moment, the next important downside resistance levels are at ;(235-232 in the inQustrial average and at 72-70 in the rails. ItIould not , 'irollovi strength but, as the decline will be extra selective and some stocks – jTill most likely reach their lows before the Generai–market j.iould-use pe- 1;' h(Piods 'of weakness to buy selected issues lith good longer term patterns. i';\ fevl issues of this type are noted below. ;X, ,/ k; 7RUEHAUF TRAILER is the \'Jorld' s largest builder of truck trailers, J.950 earnins totaled 5.59 a common share. 14arch 1951 quarter profit in,i,treased to 1. 57 against 1. 03 a year ago. The common stock has paid con- f,i, ,t',, ;'''secutive dividends since 1934 and last year the company paid 2 a share (-plus 20. in stock. At present price of 27 this affords a yield of 7.4. , 'Xhe stocle was originally recommended at the equivalent of 20. Fruehauf .;jeached a high of 31 late in 1950. The issue has an attractive technical d,'ipattern and indicates higher levels over the longer tern. Would buy on ,,,I,-,'- 'L1inor price declines, Our Research partner, lIr. H. J Soher, recently \1risited this company and copy of his report is available. h,l'', HALL PRINTING (17) has held in a narrow trading range for the last !'four years. It is priced eight pOints below the 1946 high of 25. Earnings ,; ,or the fiscal year which ended 1arch 31, 1951 have not yet been issued 'tlUt are expected to be around 2.50 a share. Hall earned 2.70 in th'e fis- )ical year ending 1948, 2.88 in 1949 and 2.43' in 1950 fiscal year. 'rhe ,, l'tor'lpany's 17 million modernization program is nearing completion and ;,',!Jhould result in increased profit margins. Hall is one of the leading ;/ (tJrinters in the nation, printing catalogues, magazines and pocket-sized ;' ioolS. The volume of this last item increased 115 ,from 1946 to 1949. Stocle , ),1s forming a very strong accumulation pattern in the 12-19 area. An upside Denetration lIould indicate 28-30. Would add it to my recommended list on ' ,,'minor p;'ice dips 0 There is good support at 15-16. A few days ago the ,',' !;'quarterly dividend rate Has increased to 32 1/21 from 251 paid in preceding i9.ue.r'ccrs. The stock will sell ex-dividend the 32 1/21 just voted on Jun 5. ;;;,Yield is over 7 1/2. Our research staff issued an excellent three-page ;;,, 'report on Hall in February. ; INTERNATIONAL TEL & TEL, (15 3/8) is a speculative issue but offers . ;-the possibility of wide percentage apprec iation, 1950 earnings were 2.38 i', e'''' share on a consolidated basis, the best level since 1929 when the stock 1,, i'sold at the totally unustified level of 149. It is selling at little HOre ,', n.than one-third of its 42.72 book value and about half its 1945 .high of 33. large proportion of its earnings are derived from foreign countries and ),'re not subj ect to excess profits taxes. It is a holding company contrcilljl; ,' tl) telephone units in South America, the West Indies and Shanhai, (2) ; radio and cable circuits mostly in Central and South America, l3) equipment, ' !,companies in U.S. (Federal Telephone), South Ar,lerica and Europe. It also ,controls Farnsworth-Capehart television and radio. Backlog of manufacturing ',',orders in the United States alone recently stood at '160 million and 85 tof this was Government business. Foreign orders ilere substantial also. iConsolidated earnings for March quarter of 1951 rose to 321iilli0n,.,or-a-bout581 a shaI'ee-aga;inst a ,share, in, the an estimated 4 first period, of, ,-.,' t;1950. Stock is a speculation on peace but also has defense economy poten- t'c' ,tials. Technically, the stock appears attractive on price dips. The ability , /to reach 17 was constructive. The stock could react to the 15-14 level ' Ilhere I would add it to my recommended list. There is an upside p,,'cential of 20-25 i!1 the pattern followed by a later testing of the 1946 high of 33. 'r, !;,June 1, 1951 EDlIJUND W, TABELL ;;, Closing Ind.Average 249.33 WALSTOiJ,HOFFMAN & GOODWIN C '' , ;J;;QJt1ijgduaaUtoVeeJf,aa;fi an o(fl'Jit&Cltation of offers to buy or SIll any I.Cuntiu From t.me to lime Wablen, Hoff,,, & GoodWin may han an Int.relt In 10m. or ,II of the (urme, mentioned her.in. The forlgolg material has b.en prepared by us 'I II maHer of information only It is baled J..i.!J, upon In'ormation believed reliable but not nlcen.,ll, complet., Is not guaranteed al accurate or final, and IS not Intended to foredose independent inquiry ;';J,;,,/,'!,,'.., -''';,\;J–;—..'// -,'-'J',,',!-,–,-, , 2J -..- , — ,- ,'-'–'—..-..'–;'– ',.r-, –, ';\\

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 08, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 08, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - June 08, 1951
View Text Version (OCR)

– …, ' —— !/ – OI StO'1 Hoffll1011 ..- Goodwl nV,,',!,,;'cw'Oi/!t,Jt!.'i;.-\!.-'-,-;'.'–''''''-'-.'-''''''-''''','l'rc, lIW1W1T4 ,'-..–!'''''–f';,;,b-'–,', ,,'-;.,'-',,,c,l,i'-,'-'0,',-,-;.0.1''';.'. &.t46;u-;z (!/;Men&ed l NEW YORK 5, N, Y PHILADELPHIA 2, PA LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF, SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 1,,1; 35 Wall Street 1420 W.alnlJt Street 550 South Spring Strent 265 Montgomery Stroet l'; DIGBY 44141 PENNYPACKER 55977 MADISON '132 SUnER 12700 i I ,, , TABELL'S MARKET LEnER II I ltirh!Or;sebelieve ii oso ;ein !i;lan area bounded roug11y by 265 and 242 in the Dow industrials. Further time ,,may be spent in this area because a .great many individual issues have not ,'( ;;;;yet built up sufficient tops. However, the action of t1e market over the ;, w;next few weeks is not entirely clear. Ability of the industrials at the i ;'5weekts low of 244.91 to hold above the May 24th low of 241.89, is construct.;,' ;',live, and it is possible that we may witness a firm market for the next E !Jseveral weeks with ;;of 245-242. Would the use average periods moving between of strength to a high of liquidate 255-257 and unfavorable a low groups. S Zc i',l;ould employ periods of weakness to purchase iSSUeS with favorable patterns i ;,,,!such as those noted below. -' ;,;j BURROUGHS ADDING MACHINE is currently selling at 17 1/4. At the '0; i;'; indicated dividend rate of 90, the stock appears to 0 ifer excellent growth ,,' t,;1)OSSibilities. It has built up a very strong technical pattern. It has held j ,c'in the 13-17 range for over four years and the recent upside penetration in- tdicates much higher levels over the, longer term. Would add stock to ;3 trecommended list if available in the 16-15 price range. The company .;,s in 7fi. FHa position to benefit from either a war or peace economy. Burroughs' prin- -''; fi,;';(;ipal defense assignment is to make ilstruments fOl mUitary aircraft. It ;'' \,I,is also turning out precision parts for jet airra't engines. Among other ' tiitems in tooling stage is a computing mechanis, for radar-controllS!d anti- f'i,\aircraft defense equipment. The new management is 2xtremely progressive i1iacnOdUlid,t s rese over arch the depart longer ment term, i s o workng ffer 3ta on rtli ele ng ctronic possj'J i developme lities. In nts t adci hat ition to \)its growth potential, company has good defensive q.lalities. It has paid ;f'7;,(dyievairdlaelngodts' since 189'1. March 1951 quarter net expanded to 44! vs. 2! Our rteseartchh partner, Mr H i J SOhie1rb'lhas recleinttl'Y issue'd 6. an ;ljiexce en repor on i s company whi c h s ava a e t 0 c en s. ;i- ,c, 'B –e 1,;1), GRAY ;,'IANU.ACTURING, now Delling at 12 1/4 on the 'ew York Curo, ,,' ;V!is, in my opinion, an excellent vehicle for sizable percentage appreciation i fit'over the longer term. Earnir.gs for 1950 were 1.83 a share. rofit for fir'st; ,!q'.larter of 195I rose to 53! a share vs. 311 in similar 1950 period. Tte c(mi ;!;pany was incorporated in 1891 and until the erl;y 1;40s manufactured tele- iff (',; phone coin boxes. he company now ranks as one of the largest manufacturers '!!' i,!of dictating machines. The product is called udograph and is an elec trolic t' ,/i/ J1achine that is gaining wide favor in the business world. All of this gr011tt(' ;\;lhansatiboeneanl accomplished in 'the distribution. It is past four years 't1hen the company started now the second largest company in the fielC. ;; till fmraaryk has etwi a se t . least 5,COO,000 of defense orders. The stock has done It has held in the 7-14 rarge for over three years but little appears ;. ;/; i,ito be building a stronE; potential base pattern with a long-teLa pctential ot\ i25 to 30. Also, the stock appear's to Le in a good defensive r.Jsition and 1,,,iShOUld be bought. Although not on an actual quarterly dividenu basis, the ' /,)istock has paid 25 cen';s for the last three qU3.rters. On the basis Glf 1.)(' , !iidividend yearly, the stocl' would yield 8.1 at present prices. 'fhere are !U';ijonly 217,002 shares. BUCYRUS ERIE returns a generous yield of l' 6 based on the 1950 iidividend of 2.00 and the present price of 22. Becar,seof a strike froln ';' 'March to September in two plants, earnings dropped to 2. 80 i lS50 from , 1-'i4.07 in 1949, 3.54 in 1948, and 4.16 in 1947. The company s the weddls'j; !;,,; largest manufacturer of E.iCcavating machinery- and related equipment. It i ' 1',,, in a position to benefit from both a defense or a peace econc ,1Y and its ,I FfiPost-war plant expansion should enable it to avoU the sub-cntractin dcne ,, ), in World liar II. From a long term viewpoin';;, its foreign busO-ness, VlhlCh ,' ;';;!\jhas ranged as high as 38\, should offer laJ'ge profit possibilities. ,951 !;i earnings should approach 1949 levels as evidenced by the 99! earned L' the ; 1;1 first quarter. The stock has a favorable ';;echnical pattern. 't has he'd irt f!' l;,l a long tradinfS range between 14 and 24. A;, upside penetration I'Tould indi- 1 Il cate 30 followed by 36. There is gvod downSide support at 2(, -19. VlouU a d f I') to recommended list if that level is reached. ,,, Ijbune 8, 1951 EDf,ill';D ,J, TABELL i,o/I Dow-Jones Ind.Closing 250.39 WALS'l'ON, HOFFMAN '' GOODWIN ' I',; 0ow-Jones Rail Closing 80.03 ,'' II,! r , f)J Thi. m.mor.ndum i. lIot to b. constr\Md .I .In oHr or lohclf.tlon of off.,. 10 bur or HII IIInr Hcuriti.. from tim. to tim. Walston, Hoffmllln .. Goodwin mill, h….. u In'',,st in 10m. or l1li11 of Ih. McurHi.. m.ntlon,d h,r,ln, Th. for'90in9 mlllt,rial h.. b..n prepatlld b, UI al a matt of information onl, It II blllHd '0 i;;;;;;;;;R;!;;;;;;;;;i;;;u;,;;;;; ;i;;;;;7;-

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 22, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 22, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - June 22, 1951
View Text Version (OCR)

;,rr.\'; \'1'tJ7.'tf/'!f\-'t.j, WolStOll.Hoff111011 Goodwin t;.Zt.Pf.'Qp!.i'7f.R7!),,.o.f'!f;f;ttfJ.Jq' i /N-ed ck( lil!'Z NEW YORK 5. N. Y. 7it,ffi 35 Well Street f/l' DIGBY 44141 PHILADELPHIA 2. PA, 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 55977 LOS ANGELES 13. CALIF. SAN FRANCISCO 4. CALIF. 550 South Spring Street 265 Montgomery Street MADISON ')232 SUnER 12700 b70t!l/ifi!4,kr. ,t 1-Mr;,.-L!!1 bl;;i;Y!.f, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER jliI t&After reaching a high of 255.23 last Monday, the industrial average de- iP' t1.f fjlII!,' I\!clined sharply for the balance of the week to reach a low of 246066 on ti, i!l!;liFriday. The decline was to be expected because (1) the market had refftraced about 60 of its May decline of twenty pOints. 'This is about the utnormal rallying Rower in a downtrend. (2) The 255-260 range in the dus – Jtrial average is an area of heavy supply. (3) The rally ..as ,weak 0 Whlle t1l1! 2 'i;lJ.l ll (tI,the strength in the oils and a few other groups gave the' market abuoyant t;i'appearance, more stocks were declining than ad,,,andng th new, s , , I r !)l!the !lhl year greatly-outnumbered the, new highs. – . . – … . '-. However, the market appears temporarily oversold 'and, after so-me-;!p;1 ;Possible further weakness early ,Monday, would expect another attempt to t( Wjreach the 255-260 range .After a week or two of, firmness, I believe the May '0 ),llow of 241.89 will again be tested with the probabilities favoring ,a down- 'ti i'iside penetration later in J u l y . rWil,apply to While this pattern applies to the general averages, it ioes not individual issues. As always, the market will not move as a \Ihole. '';-7'' i.h iF!IThiS is particularly true today. The graphs of individual issues show quite l,!diverse patterns. Some issues, like the averages, appear to be forming dis-l !),,;tributional tops and indicate lower levels 0 Other issues. show very strong i' K410ng term patterns and indicate only relatively minor declines. Other t;. Ij!groups indicate that they have already reached their low.s. and might eve jmove moderately against the trend. C '.1 . Itf;!; iv'1 Such a group is the utility issues. It is the only group that ; ti) is below the pre-Korean highs of 1950. '! d )i!Cl',/ trials 2ii2f g Pre-Korean Hgih r anFiyd Close t1'i!!- !ji Dow-Jones Utilities 44.26 42.62 If&I ')'9 The technical patterns of most utility issues indicate that they I.A !;are slowly building up long term accumulation areas. The fuhdamental reason W.!are not hard to find. The utilities are receiving much better tax treatment..ii, ;iunder the present emergency taxes than they did in Wold War II. In addi- .. i WI! tion, they have no conversion problems and no inventory problems. Sales are \, Itl1running about 15 above a year ago and, with an intensification of' the de- ;4 j fense program, the spread could widen further. . , ll Listed below are a number of utility issues with' favorable tech- '!;. fiinical patterns. Issues of this type combine defenSive qualities and good !l i';f,yields with moderate long term appreciation possibilities. I am also list- M11;M! ing their longer term upside Approx. objectives Indicated a,s outlined by my technical work. 1950 Long Term g'l Price Div.Rate Yield Earnings Price Indic. carolina Pr.& Lt. 32 2.00 6.1 3.40 .38 Ii;.. Idaho Power i;Illinois Power 35 35 1.80 2.20 5.1 2079 6.3 ,.2.B4 16 46. ;,1.,.1 ,..1, t ,. ,;; if1powa Power & Lt. 20 1.40 6.8. 1.86 27 /.i Northern States Pro 10 .70 7.0 '1.94 13,-15 hl 1.1iPacific Gas & EL 32 2.00.' 6.1, ,2.51 42 i', f0PUbliC Serv.E1. 22 1.60 7.3 2.06. 30 fJ f;;lRochester Gas & El 32 2.24 6.2 2.84 38 1' Southern Cal.Edison 32 2.00 6.1; 3.18 . lf2 7\'j West Penn Elec. 28 2.00 7.0 3.49 37 F ,f'!!1t1( P rospectus '11 .. '…. t;'.,77/ f;l1!iii, ceii.t11stiTngh,erethearree other 'is not astturarrcl'ctinvnetftse'csluieisilbcault-ai.natasom01'e). 'cwahsiecnst,o-dbu-ae-'stoe-lr-eQ-ng! – term objectives. In other cases,. the issues are lID.listed and no technical -;l lli work is available. Nevertheless, research into these companies can unc.over t;''! il undervalued issues. .,' i. lYj,;Il June 22, 1951 EDMUND 'W. TABELI WALSTON, HOFFMAN' & GOODWIN 4t1f t4 Thll m.morandum I, no' to b. construed as an off.u or foliclt.tlon of offen to buy or .,11 any .,cur,tI,. Ftom tim. to tim. Waillon, Hoffman Goodwin may tan. an lnt.rut 'n lome or all of the Curltle. mentioned herein. The foregoing m.terl.l has b..n prepared by u. 411 m.tter 01 Information only. It Is baud Je-!;, upon information belle.,ed ,..lIable but not neullarily complete, II not ;uarant..d 411 aecUTale or final, and Is not Intended to for.clo.e Independent Inquiry. 'i 'ir!IJJIfl'll!li!Wf!j1.Yb;ifYZ(,!!97;ti7ft.;!ffiZ!. '/;JJ7!,,JMe.i(Ii,''7 ;d ,1',1,14,7;7'l/1 17 I!-';- -, ';;;!IJ;fI(J,/) ;;/I-; i !;'/!i,ri;.f7hli;7,fI', sf't;r.;7/1,!t71!1!/R!lN!/!I!!!P/.;'yi;/t57tfl;f,'IJt/.11!l!!i4Wlf,'!I;.fJ

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 29, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 29, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - June 29, 1951
View Text Version (OCR)

———————————————————————-, '' ,,';'111/ 3SWall Street 1420 Walnut Street .j,'ti,Jl DIGBY 4411 PENNYPACKER 55911 TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 550 South Spring Street MADISON 9-3232 2bS Montgomerv Street SUTTU 127OQ &,'!,q m'if. l If! '1 !I!i Both averages trial average sold on Friday down to a reached new lows for the move. The induslow of 240.72 while the rails reac ted to an ,'WI 1)1ii(1! i n t ra- d ay 1ow 0 As readers f 71 78 of this letter know, I have been cautious about the li'\i'iI;/'l !10! market for a long time and have consistently advised taking profits on 121 stocks whose purchase was recommended at the 1949 lows and at the Korean I ilj 1 break of last July. I have advocated a While advising retention of a few recommended issues, 75 liquid position in intermediate term trading ac- ,J t. w\! counts. I still believe the market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrialt,i );'6 Average, will work moderately lower, It is possible that, later in the !i;! year, the average may react to the 225-215 level. However, all stocks do ti not reach their lows or highs at the same time, For the balance of the V,'Id year, the action of individual stocks could the averages, I believe it advisable during be much periods more important than of further weakness ; /ill 'I! I!',\t\j g to use a portion of liquid funds, say about one-third, to purchase issues ,1'2 ;l/,, with attractive long term patterns, This would gradually bring invested 'III j7;11 ff 'l h o s i t ion In su my p l to ette a r b o o u f t 50 May 0 1 5 t h , I presented a list of issues with strong ,!,, long term patterns, The buying range was also indicated, Some of these iW,I! fi issues have reached or about reached these buying levels. They are listed t 1;,\ below together with the low of Thursday or Friday 1,4 I' 11d,(, i', 1,1 BETTER GRADE Recent Low Buying Range f 1 t!Ii./I'!It, tji 1, Masonite /7'1''11' Mon t gomery Ward 31 30-28 !,f;!. 67 66 – 64 j'fill'l;l;' iwi,l,Owens-Illinois t;!Western Auto-Supply -78 1/4 45 3/8 77-75 45-43 IiI,;;) \Westinghouse Electric f MEDIUM GRADE llil/Bucyrus-Erie I!,M', Carrie Corp, I' Elliot Co. 1;' Hall Printing ; National Supply 34 7/8 19 3//44 20 3/ 22 I 2 16 1/2 23 5/8 36-34 2Cl-19 21-19 23-21 17-16 25-23 fij (; 1fF'J!,lI,'1,iI', f ! i';;Pacific Mills 'i)-ijI,/'! Paramount Shamrock OJ 1 37 1/2 21 1/2 29 3/4 39-37 22 – 20 30-29 1; l1r;itlil '!I',,', Smith , A.0, ffiMU! SPECULATIVE 33 5/8 36- 34 11)1'.i1i tW, F\ American Airlines I')! Columbia Gas t) Columbia Pictures 14 1/4 13 11 11//42 15-14 13-12 11-9 i; ;Ii;( U'! Eastern Airlines 19 1/8 20-18 l\L' ' Gray Manufacturing 12 12-11 !; I; Gulf, Mobile & Ohio 23 1/,4 23-21 !U;'I' ;/;1 Int 'I. Tel, & Tel, 14 3/.4 15-14 '11,1 Uni ted Airlines li(l',;I'Ii' W e s t ern Th e Maryl rail a nd av e r a g e , at Fridays 215B 5/8 low, had declined 26-24 20- 18 about 22 from the ;7l;f1 I'i'' )'i I,ti years high as compared with only 9 on the industrial average, In my i,iiloPinion, the rails will not decline much below 70, They should be bought ; I; on further weakness for the long term holding; of course considerable J.time will be needed to build a base pattern prior to an upward move, so 'i;'! r;! IWi some considerable patience may be required. I'A;Ii June 29, 1951 B 'Closing Averages EDMUND W, TABELL '!!i u17.'.1' fJ iU'! Dow-Jones Ind. 242,64 WALSTON,HOFFMAN & GOODWINllj;;1 ill Dow-Jones Rails 72 39';1 jI.'!l I , 4;l!I,Jl\ This memorandum I. not to b. con.trued a. an 0' or loUeilallon of offln to buy or .111 any ,.curitl.. From tim. to tim. Wallton, Hoffman Goodwin may have .n 1I1t.,,,t In loml or aU of the sicurities mentioned h.r.ln Th. fotl;olnq mat.rial has bun prepared by UI as a matt.r of Information only. It 1. bd upon informltlon b.n…..d reliable but not ecearil, complete, Is not ;uatat..d u accurate or final, and II ot inteded to forecloll Independent IlIqul. lJj!Yi;lc',/L\1 7!!/1!l,1f.,72.rts..!f.,rjlrt.;f.ftil';;7J…5t.1'ft,;;..;r,'-;Et..,; 5Yj ';j,;r.''-;.-; .,,,-;L77;;f)-;-;;.t;.;,'l!,;iI7.;';5 !ltf1,1,-;.rJ!;!F.,,9i1;l!lrf1l.ll3\7tL;,1 ;, If, .,

Download PDF