Viewing Month: December 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 07, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 07, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - December 07, 1951
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Wal ton Hoffma Goodw.-n ,- '–,- '-;r-r'/f',.1..!.i',i…I'l-,'e;;…'.'''ur.;f.'..'..-..'.,-'.–''.' .,.. 11 e.. ,0,—,,,,,,,,,- ,'-;'– ,-/1.'-. —-I..-,!,, ;'..'-;;… -. -J,.-;f- .4.J &;nCc t NEW YORK 5, N. Y. t 'j 3S Wall Street DIGBY 44141 PHilADELPHIA 2, PA. 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 5-5977 LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF. SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF. 550 South Sprig Street 265 MDn'gomery Street t.AADtSON 91212 SUnER 12700 t,; t..-,. ; TABELL'S MARKET LETTER -, rl1 /, I 1–., ', ',, ;''. 1,1, J, ;; The Dow-Jones industrials reached a high of 268.95 on Friday, but ;'-' ;;lost a portion ot the.day's gains to close at 266.99. At the day's high, L ;the market was near the heavy overhead supply at 270. For thirty-four (;1; !;!trading days in September-October, the industrials held in a range between '277 51 and 269.08 on a turnover ot approximately sixty million shares. The f'; market will most likely find it difficult to push through this upside re- ; ,';sistance and if it does, it may spend quite some time doing so. It would ''' be normal technical action to expect the market to back down moderately ', !;after the first attempt to approach this level particularly after the sharp ,rise from the November 26th low ot 255.20 to 268.95, a rise of 13.75 pointS ;oin eleven trading days. I would expect a further attempt to penetrate the C ,,,–, 270-277 resistance after a corrective phase. '-'. If holdings in longer term appreciation accounts are below the 50 – , -' ,- ;invested level recently recommended, would be inclined to purchase issues , ,'that have not yet participated in the recent rise. Two of the issues in my'-' ,;recommended list – one a better grade issue and the other a lower priced — ;' stock – are reviewed below. L-' BLAW-KNOX at present levels ot 17 7/8, appears to be reasonably priced. The company supplies industrial equipment to practically every z -''- ; L; '-alnadrgreubinbdeur.stTryheincocmlupdainnyghcahs emicals, steel, construc grown considerably over tion, the paper, utilities past fifteen years (-C .'c, 'lSales averaged 13 million in the 1936-1939 period and are estimated at ;'; ,.-'100 million for 1951, an increase of over 750. Financial iosition has ' (improved also from an average working capital ot less than 3 million in '1936-1939 to over 16 million as ot June 30, 1951. This last figure is ,; 'ieq',ivalent to approximately 11.50 a share. There are 1,411,468 common ,;-shares outstanding with no bonds or preferred stock. ,;; Earnings for 1951 are estimated at 2.50 a share against 1.99 in -'1950. On the regular rate ot 1.00, plus 251 extra, the yield is about 7. ;',- i'Some dividend has been paid each year since 1940. –, ;,- The stock has a very interesting technical pattern. It has held in -the 11-20 range for over tive years. The 1946 high was 30 7/8 and a high ; -;of 29 7/8 was reached in 1937. Ability to break out on the ups ide of the ;'lfuipv5ied-ey ear range penetrat would ion do indic es not ate a occur l ong in term the n obj ear ective future, of 33-39. Even the stock app if ears an to l ; ;i,\!be in a 00d25defenidsivde position. Thebre is good euEPporint inhthe b15-14 range ;'–;a2nda t he ,/,1. share di since v en 1945. seems reasona ly secure. arn gs ave een above , ,— -,',' '; OWENS-ILLINOIS GLASS closed at 79 1/2 on Friday. The year's high of ,89 1/2 was reached during the September-October rally. The technical , ,pattern of the stock is excellent. There is good support in the 80-74 area ;and the upside objective is above the recent high. '-' The company is the largest producer of glass and glass products in- -',-'cluding containers, glassware, insulating materials and other glass /Special,' -'ties. A 42 interest in Owens-Corning Fibreglas Corporation is held by — Owens-Illinois. Earnings for the twelve months ended September 30th total-c ';,led 7.09 a share. The indicated dividend rate is 4.00. The sales trend ,, iappears to be rising and improved sales are expected in the Kaylo build- 'ing and insulating products and Fibreglas yarn. Resurgence of demand L' for television picture tubes also is expected. 'i;,, . ; December 7, 1951 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN ' ;r Closing Averages '–' Dow-Jones Ind. 266.99 ,,,,;, -'f DOW-Jones RailS – 83.47 '. ' '' , '1 Thh memorandum 11 not to be con5trued as An offer or solleltetlon of offen to buy or sell any securitle, From time to time Wahton, Hoffman & GoodwIn mey 4' have An Interest In some or ell of the securities mentioned herein. The foregoing material has been prepe,.d by us es e maU of Information only. It Is bued ' upon information bel1eVld reliable but not naceuarily comptete, Is not ;UlIrllnt..d as accurat. or final, and Is not intended to foreclon indDendent inquiry ',J i, ;. , ..r..J';,'1.()'f!7.;7'I1i,'f;.g;LS';i!(J;;;;,'-'- '''-; ' ,—;i-.7''';.7'; -77/'I;'i;;'-f't;, 'f..-c;1!.t..i'5,i–;; rl,5''.!'''..t;'';f-,.)(/').' -,7 '- tV';'-. , ; -'

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 14, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 14, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - December 14, 1951
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Wolston.lloffnl0n &- Goodwin. -'' — NEW YORK 5, N. Y 35 WII Street DIGBY 4-4141 PHILADELPHIA 2. PA 1420 Wlnl.lt Street PENNYPACKER 55977 LOS ANGELES Il, CALIF 550 South Spnng Street MADISON '3112 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF. 265 Montgomery Sheet SUTTER '11DD !('!i TABEll'S MARKET lETTER ,,'I'th, ,- ;,,;i If the fourteen-point advance the Novel iber low of 254.91 in the – !' Dow-Jones industrials is merely a technical rally in a longer terr, downtrena I, ,about all of the upside potentials have been reached at last week I s high , .J of,- ),;'268.95. The advance has (1) retraced about two-thirds of the twenty-three ;,;,point decline fro, the September high of 277.51. This is the allowable I,laxi,;. U);um retracement of a preceding move without changing the trend. (2) The ad-c f)vance has closed the October 22nd downside opening gap between 267.00 and'- 1/265.90. Many technicians believe that gaps between the range of one day , 'and that of the previous day ,1USt be closed before the move in the direction of the gap is resumed. (3) The industrials have rallied to just below the ' ,heavy overhead supp ly between 269.04 and 277.51. – ;r/ The ability of the average to rally above 2,- n L.reasing volume '..,would, in my opinion, be a constructive sign and indicat;2 a possible chan'ge !'in trend and at least a testing of the September high and the possibility ,'(' ; of a new high not too far above 277.51. The inability to move much above ;i.'last week I s high of 268.75, followed by a downside penetration of the Novem- 'ber low of 254.91, would indicate a continued downtrend of at least inter- -mediate term proportions. Until more definite indications are given, would -, ,continue with my previous recommendation of only a 50 invested position in ;',cafiital appreciation accounts. ,,' For accounts less than 50 invested, or for switching purposes, the three stocks mentioned below offer interesting possibilities for longer terci- , appreciation. One of the three, Cornell-Dubilier, has been previously ad- ;',;vised. The other two are new additions to my recommended list. All three ',are in the speculative category. CORNELL DUBILIER ELECTRIC (18 3/8) is the largest manufacturer of –, ,', capaci tators. Its products are used by television, radio, utili ties, fluo- — ',rescent lighting, aircraft, communications and various other industries. ;Defense backlog is large. Earnings for the fiscal year ending September 30 ,are estimated at around 3.70 as compared with 3.96 in the fiscal year — '',' ended September 30, 1950. Sales will show an increase and lower net is main' ',,ly due to heavier taxes. Dividends are expected to continue at a 30 cent 'quarterly rate with the possibility of an extra dividend some time in 1952.- The stock sold at a high of 27 7/8 in 1946 and as low as 7 in 1949. – The recent upside penetration of the year and a half trading range between ' ',,17 and 12 indicates higher levels. There is good downside support at 17-15. ';, BELL & HOWELL (19) manufactures precision-made motion picture cameras, I')projector equipment, sound and picture reproducers and still cameras. It ,– ,';also manufactures microfilm equipment which is distributed by Burroughs – r,Adding Machine. There are distino'c growth possibil i ties in microfilm and idemand for projectors and equipm,'mt from SChools and institutions should also show continued growth. 1951 earnings are estimated at 2.50 as against- 3.52 in 1950. Third quarter earnings w;r.; cut by retroactive tax charges. vii th increased defense orders, 1952 pro spec ts are favorable. Dividends, which have been paid for thirty-two consecutive years, are conservative at ',';the indicated rate of 50 cents regular yearly, and 50 cents extra. ,,' The stock sold at 37 in 1946 and reacted to a low of 11 1/8 in 1949. i,lThis year I s high is 23 1/4. The stock appears to be building up a very 'strong technical pattern. Some further work may be needed in the 17-23 area- , -but the potential long term objective is considerably above present levels.' GEORGIA-PACIFIC-PLYWOOD (20 1/4) seemed very reasonably priced at the ,recent low of 17 5/8 and had reached the downside objective outlined by the v26-25 top. Some further backing and filling in the 18-23 area may be neces- sary, but the stock appears to be building up a strong potential base i,' pattern and should be bought during periods of moderate price declines. – Lower plywood prices have caused a dip in earnings of most plywood companies, but the situation appears to be showing signs of improvement. ,' The 1.50 dividend provides a yield of over 7 and seems secure. Earnings for the nine months ended September 30th were equal to 3.40 a common share, ; Our Research Department recently issued a very complete report on this 'i/, company giving a more detailed picture. December 14,1951 t Dow-Jones Ind. -265.71 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN I', This ;iD.QJ;Jan;;JmOlrliAo nbto;d a; an ro2Iidtatton of offen to boy or lell ally seconti From lim. to hme Walston, Hoffman & Goodwin may h,u', n int'fest in lome- or JI of fhe- 1e-(UfifIIlS mllnlIOe-d here-i The- foregoing mte-rl' no3s be-en pre-po3t.d by liS 031 03 maner of mformdHon 01'11'1. It il baled UpOI'! information b.Uev.d rellabl. but not neceuatlly complete, is not ,tuaranteed as accurat. or final, and h not intended to foreclose independent lnqulty f-.- ..– -', '-.-'–''–'—–',-;–'- -'—- – … -,' ,-,- –,,-;. ,-,'-.-,– -,-' —'–,–,';.' -,'P – -,—- -,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 21, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 21, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - December 21, 1951
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— f—,,–,,'t;''T,'-'(i'I;, . ,- Wulston.I-Ioffl1ton &- Goodwin \,''–';17fi''-;–t,,;;r;,T-V' J(,.i1, NEW YORK 5, N, Y ; ',/. 3S WJ) Street DIGBY 1.4141 P/'4/uU!-n okcrMM PHiLADELPHIA 2, PA '420 WInut Street PENNYPACKER 5-5977 LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF, SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 550 5MOIhSO5r21freef 265 ;fJStreet tf i;. ;,';1., ,,'1, f'I!-.I !,.;'; '! t;', ;',; TABELL-'S MARKET LETTER ;; i,,' 7,i If'/! ,. . hif The Dow-Jones industrials lui, attempts to penetrate the Decembei;1; 1,)7th high of 268.95 but failed by a small amount at Wednesday I s high of 268. 9 i;and Thursday I s intra-day peak of 268.91. The rail average missed a new Decem';' i,,!/ber high by a wider amount at 83.09 as compared with early December high of,i;; 1'84.94. However, if the traditional pattern is followed, the market should r.' .turn stronger between Christmas and New Year I s and strength should carry 12';, N,hrough into at least the early part of January. i– t,;\ The industrials have held for thirteen trading day! in a narrow tra-;'..3 ',ding shelf between a low of 264.33 and a high of 268.95. The market should ;,;; tbreak out of this range in the next few days. It would appear that the odds 01 ffavor an upside penetration. However, just how far such an advance can . i,carry is highly problematical. The market is faced with the task of absorb-,. Ling a heavy overhead supply of stock between 270 and 277. Approximately 65 Y' ; million shares were traded in this area at the 35-day September-October top !i'crt would be unusual technical action if this overhead resistance did not at' '; I,',jleast temporarily halt any advancing tendencies. Inability to move above 27q, t.by mid-January would be a very discouraging technical indication. It would '–' ,presumably mean that the rally from the November low of 254.91 was just a 0 r-;f,'pormal technical retracement of the first phase of a longer term downtrend ., In my opinion, the industrials will break out on the upside of the '; ''recent trading range and attempt a push through the 270-277 resistance area.; )r,,,-'1,mdaorkent omt obset l ieve that likely wi th ll e ha a v ttempt will e expended s b o e suc much cessful energy . t Eve hat n a if ny it is, upside the pene- ;l .,I – ),ii'tration will be relatively minor. I would be inclined to take profits on a';' 1Zportion of longer term holdings in the 270-277 area. ;\; t, Below are brief analyses of three issues. Two, Armstrong Cork and fi I.rCarrier, are already part of my recommended list. Ruppert is a new ac'(ition;,J li,to the speculative group. These issues should only be purchased if long terl\l' t ;(capital appreciation accounts are below 50 invested. Still would retain I(,.'a 50 buying reserve. ;/ ARMSTRONG CORK (55) The company manufactures materials for the build;;.; i.,,ing trades and for industry. Its products include linoleum, asphalt tile, ;'; 1,'cork insulation glass, containers, and numerous specialties. Its well diver;'!'; !;sified procuct lines include over three hundred items and are also sold to ', ;;many diversified industries. The stock is a better quality issue and has ,;,i i,;'paid a dividend in fifty-four of the past fifty-six years. At present leve;j;' ,around 54, the stock yields approximately 5.8. Present levels compare with';, f,a high of 64 3/4 in 1946 and a 1947 low of 38 1/4. Earnings for 1951 are ;-;1 '''estimated at 5.60 as against 8.13 in 1950. Sales in 1951 are estimated at;, ij;;' 205 million as against 186.5 million in 1950 and are four times greater fthan in 1939. The stock has a very interesting long term technical pattern .;' y7At the August high of 59, the stock had reached its first objective of 57-6f5;\ icHowever, the long term objective is much higher. The stock has a good de- ;',-,' ;', fensive pattern also. There is good support in the 50-45 area. ,,,' ; CARRIER CORP. (23 1/4) manufacturers of air-conditioning and refrige' ;,','ration equipment, had a record net profit equal to 3.88 a share for 'the ,', ,j; fiscal year ended on October 31st. This compares with 3.40 a share for the ,;!, \ (1' 1950 fiscal year. Sales also reached a new high at 80.9 million as against ' i;62.3 million in the previous year. This stock has been on my recommended .) -i- list for a ;long time. It was originally recommended around 12. The pattern ,'7 ;(,i is still extremely favorable. The long term pattern suggests a price object'7\' i'ive of over 40. There is good downside support at 19. Stock should be bough,t, '–on all minor price declines. . (;. RUPPERT (JACOB) (11 1/8) is the eighth largest brewery in the countr,yo, hbased on capacity. Its principal market is the New York metropolitan area. ' , F Stock has had a steep decline in price from the 1946 high of 34 1/2 to the I 11'11950 low of 8. No dividends have been paid since 1948. Strikes were partiall,w !,' responsible for poor earnings but company's products lost favor with the \j 1; public. Improvement in products and an extensive promotional campaign may' have turned the corner. Technical pattern shows that possible base may be i 'forming in 8-12 range. An upside penetration would indicate rather sizeabl '.percentage advance. Stock is extremely speculative. ,,! i,,; December 21, 1951 EDMUND W. TABELL ;; !- ' –; (,; MERRY CHRISTMAS WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN i) m.rnoruduThis is 01 to b, construld as ,1. oU.r or lolicitati,on of offers tc buy or sell any II,uritiu From time to tim. Walston. Hoffman & Goodwin may ,..,,-' \;-, have an Intere,t In loml or 1111, of th SltUfltles mlntloned heraln The foregOing matarlal hal bun prepared by UI as a matt.r of information onl., It is basld , 1'\\ upon Information belle\led reliable but not neceSlarily complete, I, not ;uaranteed a atcurae or final, and IS not Intended to foreclose indDendent Inquiry. ' -; – -''r1 –',\7Z i,iJ;f-,E;– -'—–\ – ',J-' ,- – – – – —; ' —-; – — –'I ' j.-'-..t- ' '!'..f.- -'J .

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 28, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 28, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - December 28, 1951
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The stock market in 1951, as measured by the Dow-Jones industrial ,–average, fluctuated within one of the narrowest percentage ranges in the j)ast fifty years. The low of the year was reached the first trading day, ,',p-anuary 2nd, at 234.93. The high was attained in September at 277.51. iThis is a percentage range of only 18 from the low to the high. For the 'reater part of the year the industrial average held in the 242-268 area. ,'– , 0; In addition to the narrow range of the industrial average, 1951 wasf ,!a.lso unusual in the fact that this was the first year in history that the 1,, ','Dow-Jones industrial average failed to sell below 200. In my opinion, it ;; 'i is PJtobable that this average \'13eeable future, although this will continue to hold above 200 level may be closely approached for the in 1952 foreand ii,'- '\11so possibly in 1953. ,;c, , I expect that the market in 1952 will fluctuate over a wider range i,' ;'than in 1951. Probably the year's high will ;;pf the year. At the moment, I doubt that it be reached in will be much, the if first at all , qaubaortveer/r';; ',the 277 high of September, 1951. On the downside, the industrials might ,',C -''yvork down to around the 220 level later in the year. As I envision the ; 'general market, it appears that it will undergo a consolidation or re- ',; ,'ccumulation period at moderately lower levels. This type of action could k continue well into 1953 and would be the necessary prelude to a much highed,, ;market from 1954 on. In effect, it would be similar to the 1946-1949 re- f; ;',accumulation range between 160 and 210 on a Slightly reduced scale. ,',if,'.pr1ce This does not mean that pattern. Even though the all issues and groups will show averages may make little upside the same progress, i-,;-' 1'-' I ',,It is possible that many individual issues could have worthwhile inoves. Several groups have above average technical patterns not upside only from 1,,'-;; ;1Van appreciation viewpoint but also for their good defensive qualities. f'– I,',' My favorite groups for 1952 include airlines, building materials, f ,,)lectronics, machinery and equipment, selected rails and utilities. '-, – 1,', .!. F Listed below are some of the issues in my recommended list that 'oughly fit into the groups mentioned above. From a technical viewpoint, ,'I believe these issues will show above average action over the next year. ;,'Additional utility issues will be recommended later. , BETTER GRADE MEDIUM GRADE SPECULATIVE ,' 'Armstrong Cork (56l American Radiator (16) American Air. (17) f- ,,- t tj L,– f.; ,Fairbanks Morse (27 Blaw Knox (18) Corne 11 Dub ilier (2,0) ,'Masonite (34) BliSS, E.W. (16) Eas tern Air. (29) l;'i , ' ' O t i s Elevator (37) , ,,', , I -' Bucyrus Erie (24) Burroughs (18) Carrier (23) Certain-teed (15) Georgia Pac.Ply.(23 ,Gray Mfg. (14) ' Gulf,Mobile & 0.(21 Inter.Tel & Te1.(17 Columbia Gas (15) Minn .St .Paul, SSM( IB–' f'–. Columbia Broad. (35) Elliott (27) National Supply (29) Northwest Air.pf.(2, ) Poor & Co,B (18) , Radio Corp. (24) i, New York Air Brake (21) Raytheon (11) t;, Paramount (26) United Air Lines (34) ,, Philco (27) Smith (A.O.) (36) Western Air. L. (15),' Western Maryland (2,i) , ,, Sylvania Elec.(37) '–\ December 28, 1951 , Dow-Jones Ind. 268.18 , Dow-Jones Rails – 82.11 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON,HOFFMAN & GOODWIN ! ; Thh memorandum il not to b. construed as an off&r -Of lolldtoltion of off.rs to bLl or ,ell any IflCllrlfies From time to time Walston, Hoffman & Goodwin may have an Int.rut in 10m. or all of the lecuritl mentioned herein. The fore(,lolng matima I has been prepared by UI as a matter of Information only It II bad upon information believed ,.lIable but not necessarily complete, b not Juarantel!d a5 accurate or final, and is not intended to fot.dose ind.. cend.nt inqloliry. )',,-'t,);,,',;;!tlJ,';',z(q;'r';I;.';/ ',,;;,','j,'- , '; ,,– ,- ,, – ' – – – – ,,'; I' , ,, …….

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