Viewing Month: March 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 09, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 09, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - March 09, 1951
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'-t J 't, ,''';,',,'' '7'\;J,''!!..',- -;.!,,-, ,' , NEW YORK 5, N. Y 35 W,II Street DIGBY 4.4141 PHILADELPHIA 2. PA, 1420 Wo!Ilnut Street PENNYPACKER 55977 I' TABELL'S MARKET LEnER ,',,I' i''-f..,.. LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF, SAN FRANCISCO 4. CALIF, SSO South Spring Street 2bS Montgomery Street MADISON '.3232 sunER '2700 tl There is little new to be said about the technical action of the market. Both averages continue to hold in narrow trading shelves and , the volume of trading is at the lowest pace for the past six months. ; Until the volume increases, there is little indication of the direction 4 of the next near term.move. So far, it appears the the lowered volume is due mainly to dryi;g up of the buying urge. As yet, there has been .;;-, little increase in selling pressure. If that current uncertainty ' causes increased average to react liquidation, would expect the to the 240-236 support level. Dow-Jones industrial ;, Such a correction, if it occurs, might result in a good buying it level for iSSues in favorable groups. As has been stated many times before in this letter, the airlines have extremely favorable technical ! patterns. This continues to be true despite the fact that this group ;f has advanced sharply since my original recommendation. ;,,,,. There is ample justification for the favorable technical impli- ; cation of this group. It is the one group that appears fairly certain ;' to show increased earnings over 1950 despite higher taxes. The first quarter of the year is usually the worst earnings period for most air- lineS and the result is quite often a loss for this period. January- , P J' February trast to earnings this year are in the black losses in 1950. Continuance of the for many companies in consharp increase in passenger t' traffic and load factors should accentuate this upward trend. ; Despite the advance in the group, individual issues are still ;; selling considerably below their 1946 highs as noted in the table .' below. Would buy the issues in our recommended list during periods t of' market recession Price Now 1945-1946 High Alaska Airlines 10 American Airlines American Air.,pfd. 15' 1/2 84 Braniff Airways 13 1/2 Capital AirlineS 16 Chicago & Southern 12 ,, Colonial Airlines 10 ,,t,.,.i Continental Air 9 1/2 Delta Airlines 23 Eastern Airlines 22 Mid-Continent Air 11 National Airlines 15 National Aviation 20 Northeast Air 6 Northwest Air 14 ,, Northwest Air, pfd. 21 Pan-American 11 T-W-A United Airlines 25 28 United Air.pfd 117 , Western Airlines 14 16 1/2 19 7/8 98 1/4 37 1/2 49 3/4 35 45 29 1/2 69 1/2 33 1/2 21 34 1/4 32 7/8 25 1/4 63 1/2 29 79 62 1/2 40 1/2 EDMUND W. TABELL March 9, 1951 WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN , ,', ClOSing Averages Dow-Jones Industrials 252.75 Dow-Jones Rails 84085 ,' Thh memorandum h not to be construed al an offer or solicitation of offen to buy or 1111 any IIcuritl From time to time Wallton, Hoffman & Goodwin may have an Int.re.t in lome or ,II of the securities mentioned her.ln, Th. foregoinq mat.rlal has been prepared b.,. 1,11 as a matter of information onl.,. It is b.n.d ,'''' upon information b.lleved r.liabl. but not neussarll.,. complete, I. no' ;uarant..d a accurate or final, and il not intended to foreclo Independent inqUiry. ..'-' ;0 . . '-. ;r-,'.Ajft,;/l- – ,, 1nJ.' 1'; ;.-,'-\7i;,r —,,,),'\ ; '; J'., '-'-;; 7 ,f, ,;f '-/'-;- ,', p-; ''– -,;;,' -,..,'/ ' '–';;' –, '/,,, ,-,/,,!, '-' ,-;- \ I , ',' ,; ',',\

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 16, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 16, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - March 16, 1951
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– – – I \ —;–' -!—-j '-'-\-'';',,' Wal s tOD. HoffDlan t;.. Goodwin ,''iJ',,;'''i-';''sX';Fi ',' ;UJ.d ako NW YORK 5, N. Y PHILADELPHIA 2, PA. LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF ', 3S WU Street \ DIGBY 44141 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 55m 550 South Spring Street MADISON '.1232 ( T-ABEL-L–'SM'-A-R–KET–L-En-E-R— SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF, 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 1.2700 , '–.,. -I ;,') During the past week, the month-old trading range of between Jt'oughly 257 and 249 on the Dow Jones industrials has been decisivly pene- 1–' ;'!trated on the downside. A low of 242.06 was reached on Thursday. The ,– ;rail'average, which has been in a definite downtrend since the 90.82 high (; ri;of early February, declined to a new low at 80.12. Volume increased as ;, the market weakened. A sharp rally on Friday brought the averages back to 'f ,1'249.33 and 82.94 . to ' ! The downside breakout places the market in an extremely defen- ' ,';sive position as far as the major trend is concerned. The distributional,,, ,, tops formed on both the various averages and on individual issues are rel- – ,-atively minor. They indicate, at the moment, no more than a decline to , ;,240-236 in terms of the Dow Jones industrials. A rally from Thursdays low — ''; of 242.06 or from a subsequent low in the 240-236 area, is the normal hi- ttechnical expectation at the moment. This rally will meet heavy upside ;—- ;, resistance first at 248-249 and then all the way up to the February high ; ;of 257.06. If, after a month or so, the advance fails to carry above the , ,February highs and subsequently falls below the low reached on the present ; i ;',ldecline, a major downtrend is indicated. The ultimate downSide objective ,(' '-, of such a possible pattern is not evident at the moment. It depends on f ;,ihow much of a distributional pattern is formed between 257.06 and what- , ,.( ;,, ever ipatt low ern. is reached on the present declining phase, if such is to be the 1'- i,,.'–o' ,,i This letter has been suggesting caution since late 1950. It j ,;has advised a gradual lightening of positions as each individual issue on ';1 our recommended list has reached its individual upside objective. As f'ii ;, these issues were originally recommended at considerably lower levels ,' (in early 1949 in the 160-180 area and again in July 1950 in the 195-205 , ,', area) this policy has resulted in substantial long term profits. Of 1' '\ course some of these issues have moved moderately higher but this letter does not concern itself with the minor trend. I continue to advise a 60 liquid position in accounts where 'l primary conSideration is long' term capital gains. It is my opinion that ,',' the market is in a consolidatil; )hase that may last from six months to a , , year. The outer limits of this consolidating phase are not clear at the ; ,, moment but the present pattern suggests something like 260 to 200 – ad- ;mittedly a wide area. During this phase, individual issues will offer i excellent buying opportunities. After the consolidating phase is com- ' pleted, much higher prices are indicated. , At the moment, the 40 of total funds invested should be con- ,',; centrated in groups with not only favorable long term implication – – '-; , , also good defensive qualities. Such groups include Airlines, Building '.Y Supplies, Department Stores, Finance Companies, Motion Pictures, Natural ) Gas, Office EqUipment, Printing and Publishing, Tobacco, Soft Drinks, 1 ', Utili ties and Variety Chains. . , ,, March 16, 1951 , CloSing Averages ,','I'i;' Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails ,' 248.62 82.69 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN , . ,l I ,- This m.morandlJ ' not to b. construfld as .lJp offer r soliclffon of offln t' bu or !eU any securities. From time to tim. Walston. Hoffman & Goodwin may haYI iI.1I Interest II) some or all. of the I.-CU mlntl.lmld h.rl/tl Th. fore;cllnq mafldl ho!I b.en prep.,..d by ut 015 a matter of .nformation only It is baled upon Information b.1JlIved r,lIbl. but not nflunar.i., compl.t., Is not ;ullranteed as accurat. or final, and is not .nfended to foreclon inde'Pendent inquiry ','-'I'LL..! L,,' ,,LL-!V-'LLII, ILL- IIL,'.,',I…' , -', ,;. L )' L L'L' L ',;','..',-,, -L'-LL'Lt,, ', ,.,.. .. . IX

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 22, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 22, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - March 22, 1951
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Wol s ton. Horell &- Goodwin.-f !.. 'i.-r-…,.,Jt'!.'–;'.!;– 7-i 'i.-f, all 'f;t–,,'r';—icJ,'Fr;,;c'',,' ,)i'I. '; ,i ' ,', NEW YORK S, N. Y. ,,.,, 35 Wall Street DIGBY 44141 t,', PHILADELPHIA 2, PA PENNYPACKER 5597'1 '( TABELL'S MARKET LEnER LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF 550 South Spring Street MADISON '132 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 12700 '.t\ I';' 1f' '1;,;-,-. E' (.- t (t'f I trials,Thaenmd a8r0k.e1t has 2 on rallied from the rails to last week's lows of 242.06 on the indusreach intra-day highs of 251. 57 and 82. 48 )'1t i;j ei'on 'Thursda'. 'I'he averages are now entering the heavy overhead resistance i,'at 2')0-2')'( and 4-86. Volume on the ,advance has been Loderate. , ;,, Still advlse caution in accounts concerned mainly with longer tern capital appreciation. Would employ only 40 of available funds and would ;'', LL' concentrate such holdings in groups with good defensive qualities. The E' ;,;'following groups have good technical patterns. ,, !&fnd I The AIRLINES were still continue to my favorite group believe they will for price appreciation in work higher despite their 1950, recent I'' ; rise. Strong base patterns were built up in the 1947-1950 period, and they ;\ ;' ,have had only half of their potential advance. As an example, Eastern air- r' lines has rallied 10 points from 14 to 24. The pattern suggests an ultimate i ;'34, or a pOSSible further 10 point appreciation. Some consolidation may be ;, .-,required, but the group appe2rs attractive on all minor price declines. ,;, it I like the BUILDING SlIfPLY Group. Issues in this group are forming a very strong' base pattern. They may not do too much marketwise over the near ! , term, but be one of eventually the market they indicate substantially higher leaders of the 1952-1957 rise. levels. They could ;', , , , The DRUG group is selling considerably below the 1946 highs and is (', ,,'much less vulnerable than many other groups. It may be in a long term accu- ;, ; ,mulation area. It is a good defensive group with longer term possibilities. t FINANCE CO!YIPANIES have reacted quite sharply since Korea, but at 7' recent lows, they were at strong support levels. Regardless of popular .,,, opinion, this group appears reasonably priced and should be bought on price l'. r; 'dips. It might be of interest to observe the price pattern of this group ' in the war period of 1942 to 1945. During this period, the finance group ,,', )3,dvanced over 100, and greatly outperformed such war groups as aircrafts, i; ';'metals and steels. ;, The !YlACHINERY group is composed of many different types of companies ,trt, ,so it is difficult to predict a general pattern. There are a great many ;J,' ';individual issues in this group that have attractive technical patterns, E ','so I am classifying the group as one that should be bought on minor price declines. ,.' The NATURAL GAS group reacted quite sharply after Korea, but at the 1,,;' ' July lows were at strong support levels. I believe this group is forming ,'-'c a reaccumulation area. The action may be slow, but purchases should be ; ' ,made on weakness. This shOUld be a relatively stable group. ; If LB.!Yl. is eliminated from the OFFICE EQUIP!YlENT group, the rest ;;; d c of the issues have done little marketwise for a long period 0 Substantial ,.';, ',base patterns have been formed, and the group occupiea a good defensive , position. I would suggest buying on declines in anticipation of above ti, i,e , average and long term price appreciation. ,,, PRINTING AND PUBLISHING stocks have been backward, but they have ' formed fairly good base patterns. The group appears attractive on declines. , 'The issues are not vulnerable and offer moderate appreciation possibilities /' ',,over the longer term. ,Y' , The RETAIL TRADE group has built up good base patterns and the up- o;, side objectives have not yet been reached. I would buy on all minor price , ' -dips. ).- THEATRE AND MOTION PICTURE stocks have held in a narrow range near ,.-!.- the lows for over three years. The long term upside potentials are very large percentagewise and the group appears oversold. A very interesting ;appreciation opportunity is possible for the longer term. i; TOBACCO issues are selling close to five year lows and appear to be in a good defensive position. Appreciation possibilities, however, are . ',limited . The UTILITY group has done little marketwise since the Korean break. ', ; In contrast with new highs in industrials and rails, the utility average is slightly below its 1946 and 1950 highs. Moderate base patterns have ,'formed and the group possesses appreciation possibilities plus Ciefensive ,'qualities and good yields, ,,!Ylarch 22, 1951 ED!YlUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFF!YlAN & GOODWIN I – r n'Gwlqan(heSs nR!feI lIstlu,d lan or solidtation of off,rl to buy or sell any securities From time to time Waldon, Hoffman & Goodwif! ,a.,. .! 1'.,v. u '(nn-rib In lome or arrOf th IIcuri'fls-1rrlntioned her.in. Th. foregoill; mat.nal has bun prepared by us 11 a matt.r of information only It il based ' upon information b.Ii…..d r.llabl. but not .cessarily complete, is not ;uarantnd as accurate or final, and is not intended to for.close independent inquiry

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 30, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 30, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - March 30, 1951
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— — -.-..– PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 35 Wall Street 1420 Walnut Street DIGBY 44141 L PENNYPACKER 55'm '0 -TA-B-E-LL-'S-M-A-R-KE-T-L-E-n-ER—— LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF, SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF, 550 South Sprin9 Street 265 Mont90mery Street MADISON '3212 sunER 17OD After reaching lows on of 245.34 on the industrials and r 78.65 on the rails; the market rallied moderately to 249.25 and 80.97 on Friday. I do not expect the rally' to carry very far. Volume indica- ,tions continue unfavorable with 1,770,000 shares traded on Wednesday's ,'', decli n e as The against 1,150,000 on Friday'S advance. rails will most likely continue to give a clew as to the near ',; ;,;S term trend of the market. The rails have spearheaded almost every advance , ' and decline Since June, 1949. This is particularly true since the Korean- iY ; ,lows, Wednesday's downside penetration by the rails will most likely be ;0; followed by a new low on the industrial average. , 'The rails have reacted 13 from the high of 90.82 while the indus- ;,,; ;'. trials, at the March 14th lows, had reacted less than 6 from the high .;' ; .- of 257,06, It would ap'1ear that the rails are nearer their lows for this ;' ,'phase of the decline than the industrials. Would expect the rail average r,to make its low during the next few days in the 78-76 area. This should / ;, be followed by a mild technical comeback. On the following minor decline, ,;' ,; the rails might hold above their previous low while the industrials might ,0' ;,' reach their low in the 236-240 area. This is largely guesswork but P ' appears to be a probable pattern. 1''– , , After both averages reach their lows for this phase of the decline, , ,-(in presumably the 240-236 and 78-76 range) technical action must be -, , watched very closely, A rally with weak characteristics might substantially broaden the distributional pattern and indicate considerably lower levels. , ,' The alternative would be a co.structive re-accumulation pattern. It will ti , take time, possibly a couple of months or more, before the new technical !- pattern is complete. , This letter has been advising 60 liquidity in accounts whose main ';, ,'objective is intermediate term capital gains. If the market reacts to ,.. the 240-236 and 78-76 area WOUld advise using one-third of liquid funds 7 t;, ' in pUrchasing selected issues, thus bringing liquid position down to '40. Would buy only on weakness. Suggest the following issues at the , ;', prices mentioned , BETTER GRADE MEDIUM GRADE SPECULATIVE , . ' Commercial Credit (rO) Fairbanks Morse (44 Montgomery Ward (66 Otis Elevator (35) Vester '.uto Supply (42) Carrier Corp.(20) Balt.& Ohio (18) Fruehauf Trailer (25) Chic.& No.West(21) Lowenstein (30) Goodall Sanford (18) Nat'l Supply (21) Inter.Tel (15) Sylvania Elec.(26) Spiegel (11) ,' Bal timore & Ohio, Chicago & Northwestern Railway and International .',,, Telephone are new additions to my recommended list. Lowenstein was ,, originally recommended at 19 and profit taking was advised at 36. The balance of the issues are on the present recommended list. Downside objectives on some leading issues follow ,', , ' 1951 H!h Allied Stores ; Allis Chalmers 47 ' AlTIer.Smelting 80 , Assoc.Dry Goods 25 , Bethlehem Steel 60 Canadian Pacific 29 , Case, J.L 64 ,Celanese 56 , Denver Rio Gr. 65 Gulf Oil 91 Illinois Central 75 ' Int'l Paper 56 Price Now 43 43 71 20 53 25 55 48 54 85 62 50 Downside 1951 Price Goal 41 Kennecott Hfgh 9 Now 40 Monsanto 84 76 65 Nat'l Lead 76 70 18 N.Y,Central 26 19 48-45 Phelps Dodge 69 61 23 Schenley 41 34 50 So.Pacific 74 65 49-47 So.Railway 64 51 46 Texas Co. 94 89 81 U.S.Rubber 59 53 57-54 U.S.Steel 47 42 47-43 West.Maryland 29 23 Youngstown S. 59 52 Downside Goal 64 72-69 60 19-17 58 30 60-59 48-46 86-83 50-47 40 23-21 49-47 '. ' March 30, 1951 Closings Dow-Jones Ind. Dow-Jones Rails 248.53 80.61 EDMUND W. TABELL ,wALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN ' This memorandum is not to be construed as ./In offer or solIcitation of offers to buy or Sell any seCUrltiel from tIme to time Walston, Hoffman GoodWIn may have an intered in some or all of the securities mentioned herein. The foregoing materIal has been prepared by us as a matter of informatIon only It is based upon informatIon believed reliable but nol neceuarlly complete, is lIot ;uaranteed .u accurate or fInal, and is not intended to foreclose independent inquiry ,, ……' ,'/' .' -'' ' ,-. ',' , …. ',' ' ' ,, ' \

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