Viewing Month: July 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 06, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 06, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - July 06, 1951
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,i,T1'''–',-''J;g,;;a'-';r,;, WoIston. Hoffn1on &Goodwin 7–';''Cii.'ii',,-q'!i.7rt1';1;)1; Qkht;,'j' W'4M;um ec, 1;' 117 /)) NEW YORK 5, N, y, 35 Wo!IlI Sheet I'1l.\J DIGBY 4-4141 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 55971 LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF, SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF, 550 South Spring Street 265 Montgomery Street MADISON 93232 SUTTER 12700 fill IiINl,I' ,M TABELL'S MARKET LmER II,IM, 1it I,.I, ;/ IllI;I/ '1,/17 f/I iY,,,I o Ir, , L.,.J 'i I,l; I),; 1,,7' ',i! Both averag'es recovedre s harp 1y f rom the June 29th lows of 240.72 I1U(j1.i'1l WH and 71. 'r8 to reach intra-days highsdf 251. 30 and 76 ;27 This rapid re- ,i k,1 covery on small'volume has' again weakened the near term techhical pattern 1;1/11. ',';,','1 and the short term indIcator has' agaTn enteredoverbbught territory. ;(;1 This,' plus' the 'fac't that there is heavy overhead supply at 250-255 and at f!,'li (t! 76-78, leads to the probability that therewiiH; be ano.ther tes Ging oL the June 29th lows. The next support point in the industrial average is at filii, 235-232 followed by 225-220, The rail average should meet strong support ),,; at 70. j As mentioned last week, all stocks will' not make their lows at the' ift;'tl !i; f,'q, tH, sam sho e u l ti d e be . Ther purch e a s are ed o is n sues mino with r wea stron kness g d ,long' espite t erm the technical fact that patterns 'ch,at the avera;es 1'1; and numerous individual issues with weak technical patterns iildicate lv1'Jh,r,,,,t'; !'; lower levels. I');; ;1, There seldom has been a time when various segments of the marke c .have 1M t)!,,'1. moved as independently of each other as they are doing Goday. The' three, lists below illustrates this poInt. The yields are based on June 29th ;;1 \;!, li f' prices and the total dividen.ds paid in 1950. , I, ,'d Superior Oil LOO 1ucyrus Erie 10.00 fi',lTexas & Pac.Land 1082 P'i-ramount 1 ' 8.30 i'IMinnesota Mining 2.26 Commercial, Credit 914 ,-, Hudson Motor Cont. Steel Chrysler r1r6.'.5862r,',4JI) -11 4 '2886 f4 Merck&Co. 2.35 Hall Printing 8.89 Pat1noMines.. . iillr i;Pfizer,(Chas.) 2.40 Nat'lo Supply 8.38 South P.R.Sugar 1301 l I;-'Corning Glass 3.01 Fruehauf 7.92, Amer;'.Wpolen ,' 1300b it j'Amerada Pete. 3003 Armstrong 6.94 Gen'l,Motors, 12.94 r,; ;; n 'IU11i, Mo n s anto The Chem. stocks 3.36 in the Sylvania 6.72 Motor first classification' are th'growth Wheel 12.60 sit'atios. '\li,l 'i o/,; Immediate yield is of minor importance' t-o- the long term investor who is 'i t'L;li purchasing have shown growth in excellent a company over a period of years. Stocks of this type market action and have been the favorites of insti- (;i 11', tutional buyers and weal thy investors. The important question is ',whether, !I,,, 1.8 at resent levels, they have not too liberally discounted their favorable f, II,I grmtn pattern. , (,j1,' The shade or second list comprises companies that, in the main, are so below the higher grade investment, category. Even if just a business ;i; f,! ;,;,' should decline moderately, present dividends .on these issues appear rel- ,1,/,talve1Y,secure. , 1- .,1' I' I.;!\ The companies in the third claSSification are mainly in cyclical J,' IJ' 1)\'; i industries. The high yield indicates that there is considerable doubt as ;3,,( i! to maintanence of 1950 dividend payments. \ t It would appear that the issues in opportunity for the individual investor. the second group Yields are good present the best and, while these i issues might react moderately, a decline of more than minor importance 1J1 b' t; i.i lilt would seemingly place them on the bargain counter. It is issues ,of this ),f(,,1 Fi! type that have the strongest long term patterns on my technical work. As i;; i;;! iSSCles of the first type reach price levels that fully discount favorable gp, Vi long term prospects, buying might 'edge down into issues of slightly lower I'!' i,'! investment calibre. ig I,,1',,1I1 l'/jlI'r,!l/. Ii July 6, 1951. ' , tl', f!!i\- 'C'-l' .. –. A',', -p, ..' '..,., ,-, , , -EDMB'ND HTOllliF'FEMATiTJ & 'GOODW''I'N'i;–',,(,',,! r;)1 oSl.ng verages . WALSTON, N I 'I, ;il1!,,)'./j!' Dow-Jones Ind c 50.01 Dow-Jones 'Rails 75. 72 i,i ) 111\ 1'-)''i''', f ','I x;, i1. '. ' . 'z't' /.fi/II',!!171i !.ll Ttlh memorandum Is not to be contru.d a. an off'lr or solicitation of ofhrs to buy or II any securitl.s. From tIm. to time Wahloll, Hoffman I Goodwin may hllv. an Interut In 10m. or all of the securiti.s mentioned her.ln. Th. for.goln9 material has been prepared by u. a. a matter of Informatloll only. Jt Is based upon information b.II….d r.llable but not neCluarily complete, I. not ;uaranteed oil accurat. or final, and Is IIOt Intended to foreclose Independent Inquiry. M' ft-trl;yt 1VN!!.;;ft,'Ci.(-t1rr;!!'lZ;;;;–7!ylJ;;'i.!,–0.'-'(IJ;–/ –', – 'f'/; ;'-l.;.J; -!;s;,''fi!!Fi(l7,-jjt'5'i!j!jY1if!J,ff!!Jt!;-.J.;(,rl'Y.17ff!1'Lb/J

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 13, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 13, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - July 13, 1951
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fjJ(1;''-' ,k!&C;,,'7!;trp'lr/r'!J!Jr'J WoIsto11.Hoffm 0 11 &- Goodwin ;(f;t.tJ'2',,t'f';;;i'S.;'iJ'1'Jif,Ji'fJ. ir;; NEW YORK 5, N, y, w.u/t-6d Cfoce PHILADELPHIA 2. PA LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF, l1i' r.f, 35 Wall Street 1420 Walnut Street 550 South Spring Street 265 Montgomery Street ! '1'1/41. DIGBY 44141 PENNYPACKER 5-5917 MADISON '232 SUTTER 12700 J., l TABELL'S MARKET LETTER &f The market has staged a rally from the June 29th lows. At 'fi! IJi the week I s highs of 255.36 and 76. industrials have .recovered approx !(1'Ji mately fourteen pOints The rally has occurred and the on very rail average has advanced roughly six small volume, averaging little better point( than ! l;o/i million shares daily. The important test will be met shortly when the in- ti jt!, dustrial average attempts to penetrate the heavy 255-258 overhead supply. !i A summary of technical patterns of some of the more important !!Ji3i i.'( groups is given below 1;'; AIRLINES continue in a long term uptrend with ultimate objectives 1 iYi! considerably above the year I s highs. They appear to be in a consolidating ;1., 'ili;;1 phase at the moment but should be held and purchased on minor setbacks. AUTOMOBILE issues look lower. Long term upside objectives were i; reached late in 1950 and fairly sizable tops have been formed. General i';'i 17 rJ l,'' Motors, which this letter recommended in the 25-30 area and advised sale at.;; r; 52-54, has formed what appears to be a distributional top and indicates a ; e; probable decline to 40-37. There is no technical reason to buy this group )-;, Ei,.,' except for trading rallies. i';;, rii term BUILDING MATERIAL stocks on the other hand have technical patterns. The potential upside objectives very stlrong long are 50, to 100 ;-,i,i 'i. above present levels. There is no indication when this move will take place it; but there is also no indication of a decline of importance. This group t7 ;1 ii.i iJ should be purchased on minor declines. CHEMICALS have been one of the best acting favorable growth potentialities. However, they are groups because now selling at t; hoifghthei\ff) price-to-earnings ratios and yields are small. Technically, the majority iiii lv1, of these issues have reached their long term price objectives and appear t A i,l offer only limited possibilities for further advance. They have ,not, as yet!. dil built up important distributional tops. 'ti ii COPPER AND METAL issues have not reached long term upside object- tt;;; ives, but appear to have formed intermediate tops that indicate moderately Ii;; lower levels. Kennecott, for example, indicates a higher long term objectf,!;' !, ive, but may decline to 60 first. !i I;Ii of the ELECTRONIC AND TELEVISION stocks have television companies with less emphasis good long term on electronics pat may t erns work .Sloomw )l! first because of poor second and third quarter earnings. Issues of this tY' 9,' like Motorola and Philco, should be bought on weakness. Issues strong in ; electronics like Sylvania and Radio show indications of only minor price fii! dips and should be bought for much higher long term potentials.' r1;i1;1 bought MOTION PICTURES are for sizable long'term forming strong appreciation. base patterns and should Patience may be required be but i't ,q';i; i; Ii, yields are good'. ;17 ic' OFFICE EQUIPMENTS have favorable long term patterns and have good tt ;f'h defensive qualities. F(,,' t;;,W, OILS have diversified patterns. The majority have reached their ,); long term upside objectives and appear high enough. A few individual issu!f ii\';, may still offer profit possibilities. Only minor tops have been formed but ;;; the group appears in need of consolidation. l t PAPER stocks have similar patterns to coppers and metals. (Y ;'/' \i. much RAILS have been in lower than 70 but some a downtrend time may be from requ i 90 red to 70. They do to consolidate not an d indicatEf,' form I H base patterns. Selection is iinportant in this group. f- /; STEELS 'look 'lower but a obd part of the dec line has already b, !,, occurred. U, S, Steel reached its long term upside objective at 47; The ul ti-';, 11;;mate downside objective is 35-32. Recent low was 37 5/8. After lows are \;'; reached, considerable time will be needed to form bases. The group is not !!''ii, ! attractive for other than trading rallies. lfi ff.,;7i appreciatUioTnILpIToIsEsSibciolmitbiiense . good defens Appears to ive qu offer alites, above fair yields and average safety.. modest f,, ir The diverse patterns of the groups mentioned above indicate that i 11;1, the policy advocated by this letter should be continued. There is no need \1 Wii,to disturb long ii/Ii funds should be term inve invested s i tment n defe accou nsive nts whe issues re o r incom kept e l is paramount, iquid. Interm ebduiat tenew11;; r';iiterm capital appreciation accounts should be 50 invested in favorable grouJlj . .i1!and 50 liquid awaiting buying opportunities. EDMUND W TABELL V ,'.F llJThyh 13,1951 memorandum h not to b. construed al an off'!t or solicitation of Off.fS to bu, or lell any 1.curliI.A 'ih'rScm'l'OtlmN tolItiOmFe;WrapWnl..t.fo&'ffmGaOaQool'WctWTTnI! may Ii F ,Y! have In In'',.,' In 10m. or .11 of the .ecuritie. mentioned her.ln. Th. 101.;019 mat.rial hu been prepared by U5 a5 a mitt., of InformatIon only. It Is buad IJ' 1 upon Information ballav!td rallabla blrl not n.c.lIrlly compld., I, not ua,antd u accurat. or fInal, and 11 not lnt.ndad to 10faclo,. tnd.padant ,,,qu1ry. '!f! Yi'iJO/i)'!J!,r'tii(),,''\7\1,1P' S,,,,f!,,'II.J'l;'j1.4f1jJ./ll!lylI,NlI!f!lJllI,(Zl'!I!Ifllf(,I'Zif!/'f!lf//P'-fftJ,'!Ik;'',,,,/,.1,) ! I, ,',-/',1Y,'lf',l!,l fl , , ,- ', ! ,, , – ' , ' , l' ',I'If,f, I I' , ', ' ,- — t ,,I, '. 'II ,', I j -JI'J/ ,,' i ,,; ,' , , ' ,J,;t',,',,'1f'.-/,PI\flItJ'!ll ,y1r,1'!0!I,I/,I,Ir'-/10 ,'I,,!',!',r'VVIJ',,1h,l,/'I('n(,'\,'dI/II,f'I,,IIi',\''i1i.\1

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 20, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 20, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - July 20, 1951
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u,'r,r,,,';',7'1, '' Wolston.Hoffnl0n Goodwin f ,, , ,;f;;';;';'!'';;1i1iI (-Y–/PPi.r'4Mn.enC (-J. et;cenUed Ifq ,/! , , NEW YORK 5, N, y, 35 Wall Street DIGBY 44141 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 10420 Walnut Sheet PENNYPACKER S 5'17 TABEll'S MARKET LETTER .t , , LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF, SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF. 550 South Spring Street 265 Montgomery Street MADISON ')132 sunER 12700 'I,,-'I i \' ;( 'C ,1, 'J IlJi,'t'J,..7' ,;-.' , ,i/ii'l 'f!.,, ,.1 F\.1 ' U The market spent the entire week in a narrow trading range just a shade;i; te,below the heavy upside resistance at 255-257. The potentially dangerous ;pead and shoulders top formation still rema1ns intact in the industrial ,average. The rail average rallied to a new high for the move at 77.53 on ';; \1; t 1,,;J;;'riday and is approaching the 78-80 supply. k! \ t Because of the uncertain technical pattern of the general market, this t .-.letter has adopted a rather cautious attitude. As I have mentioned many 'ft.; ;tlmes before, individual issues and groups have extremely diverse patterns ;;With different issues in different stages of technical development .For this t .-reason, while suggesting no change in long term investment accounts where ;';j ,,return is paramount, I have suggested a partially liquid position in capitalt;- ppreciation accounts with 50 invested in issues with favorable long term ; technical patterns and 50 liquid awaiting buying opportunities. !;; ,l Perhaps a short explanation of what I mean by favorable and unfavorablei,;; ,technical patterns is in order. Stocks very seldom move very far in either r;,'\ 'direction without first gOing through a period of accumulation or distribu- ;; ;n ';tion. The reason for this is obvious. For example, if a stock has declined because of poor earnings or unfavorable outlook, the reasons that caused ,r7' ,the decline seldom disappear overnight. There is usually a period of uncer- t'r ,tainty during which time the stock ceases to decline but consolidates and f;;l V;backs and fills in a narrow trading range as sufficient buyers come into ;,the market to take care of the discouraged sellers. This is the slow tire- H .,' s , om e period of accumulation or formation of a base for an advance. It \1; /, usually is the first or preliminary requirement before a worthwhile move. )(' kThe second stage ot technical development is when the stock breaks out of ; its base pattern and starts to advance. The third stage is when the stock ;',;!, ' reaches its upside objective or high. The ,fourth stage of technical develop-I;;, ment is the formation of a top or the period of distribution. It is the ;,;;;, ,'opposite of the first phase of development. It is usually accompanied by 1-;; 'extreme optimism and consumes a shorter period of time than the accumulationt,i , phase. The fifth phase is the declining period as the stock breaks out of 1,,'',1 its top formation. The sixth and final stage is when the stock reaches its V,, ',downside objective or low prior to the long tedious period of re-accumula- i i. tion. Of course, the pattern is not usually as Simple as that outlined above .f!.;;',,.,'; ,various short term moves often confuse the situation and sometimes make it 'f'z; ,- difficult to be certain at just what stage of technical development each stock may be. nIi'; c , In the present market we find groups and individual issues in all the kV ',various stages of technical development which explains the diverse action ', ;,oionfutttlhhineeepfoiarfsst sto,smisxeecomonfodntthahensdmansodirxetthhime spvtoaargrteiaesndthgoavruoetulopfoaskvofofrolalbrolweth.GeteecmnheornnaitLhclsaylasphpeeaaattdke.irnnAgs, basrtniodecfki'tl;)i those in the third, fourth and fifth stages have unfavorable patterns. , The industrial average appears to be in the fourth stage while the rail,/ 'average appears to be in the last stages of the fifth phase and approaching C, the sixth, and the utility average appears to be in the first phase. ;, ;' AIRLINES are in the second stage. AUTOMOBILES are in the fifth.BUILDING;,, ;'MATERIAL stocks are mainly in the first and second stages. CHEMICALS are ;scattered among two, three and four. COPPER and METALS are mainly in the ;, ifourth stage. ELECTRONICS and TELEVISION are ma1nly 1n the first phase with;;',' –B. few in six and the last stages of five. MOTION PICTURES are almost all in'c ,the first phase, as are OFFICE EQUIPMENTS. OILS have very diversified pat- 1,, 'terns within their own group with individual issues to be found in the second, third and fourth phases. PAPERS seem to be mainly in the fourth .'stage. STEELS are in the fifth phase. ;;'j' F .-July 20, 1951 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN ;;'1;' ,f)' , ' Closing Averages f,' , Dow-Jones Industrials 253.73 Dow-Jones Rails 76.83 ;' ,-,,'/ , I \I This memorandum II not to b. construed a. an off.., Of IOlicltotion of offer. to buy or lell any 'tUflties From tim. to tim. Walilon, Hoffman & Goodwin may , have an lnte,nt ill some or ,II of the ,.curltiu mentIoned hr,l The for'90ing matenal hu been prepared by u, II m5ttu of Information only. It i. baMid , , upon information b,II…d ,..1I,bl, but not neelnarll.,. compl,te, I. not ;uarantaed as accurate Of final, and is 1\0' intended 10 foredo Independent inqulfY. ;', I , , ,,;– ,;' ' '1' 1',;V!;fi,I';PrX!2i''/Zl;,'i.,nf,'Y,', /) 2'/''F 7; , 7/ ' ', ';, 1 'I ,. !;;' \- .' , – , ,- ' — ''-'' –'–1, -)-',I';,, -t(,'f , ;'ir'-',J)…, 1

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 27, 1951

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 27, 1951

Tabell's Market Letter - July 27, 1951
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Wolsfon.Hoffnl0n &- Goodwin lEW YORK 5, N. Y ',7 35 Wall Street DIGBY 44141 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA. 1420 Wlnut Street PENNYPACKER SS977 rADEll'S MARKET lETTER LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF. SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 550 South Spring Street 265 Mont90mery Sired MADISON '13211 SUTTER 12700 ,' The Dow-Jones industrial average in the past week has pushed through ;-the overhead resistance at 255-257 to reach a high of 260.79. This tradi- 'tional summer rally has now carried twenty points above the June low of ('240.72. Thus investors have the fourth opportunity since the first of the ;0 ;. year to again examine their holdings and weed out undesirable or fully ,-. 'Valued situations. Other opportunities were offered at the February high , ',of 257.06, the early May high of 264.44 and the June high of 255.23. After , .each of these highs the market declined to the 242-240 support level. –.' Regardless of the fact that the diverse action of individual issues ;,seemingly makes the fluctuations of the market averages unimportant, the re;; .latively narrow trading range of the industrial average since the first of . the year between 240 and 265 (a range of 10) must have some significance. ;c. Either this six months area is a period of accumulation prior to a further .; .- rise or it is a period of distribution prior to a decline to new lows. ;';' ,- If the trading range has been accumulation; it seems quite evident ;.. , that new leadership must come into the market. While many issues have been . ..,declining or marking time, other groups have moved consistently higher since– .the first of the year. Chemicals, Oils, ethical drugs and rubber have been among the market leaders. The favorable action of these groups has held the average in trading range and has offset the unfavorable action of other '. ; groups. It is illogical to expect these same groups to continue to lead the-' ,.market. Many of these issues are in the growth category and are now selling' ,at yields of 4 1/2 to 3 or less. A further moderate rise of 5 or 10 may.-.- occur but anything beyond that would result in over-exploitation of their ; ,favorable prospects and place them in an over-valued category. On the other hand, there are many secondary issues with excellent long term prospects that have done little marketwise over the past six months. Technically, ,these issues appear to have been under accumulation and could rise 25 to . 50 even though the market average advanced only 10 from present levels. Many of these issues are yielding 7 to 9 after paying out 50 or less of -,prospective earnings. In the event of a further market rise, they could .. show substantial market appreCiation. Should some of the deflationary signals that have been appearing prov ,to be more important than is now apparent and the six months trading range . ,turns out to be a period of distribution, the most vulnerable issues would '. ;,be those that have had sharp price advances. Demand for these growth issues'' '. has been persistent and largely from institutional and long terin growth in-'. '. vestors. If this demand should cease there might be a considerable prlce ;.' ,,-,vacuum before it would again re-assert itself. On the other hand, the In- ..' 'exploited issues should show favorable defenive action in the event of a ' general market decline. The worst one could expect would be a moderate dip . ,-,to ;,; of the lower part of their trading their base pattern and a higher ranges resulting in a long term objective. further broadening .. . Thus, it would appearthat regardless of an advance or decline in the' ,general market, the secondary issues with good prospects, high yields and .-; ;.;favorable long term technical patterns, offer the best opportunities. Issues' ,of this type have consistently been mentioned in this letter and are part '.-', ' .. of my recommended list. ;' The recent action of the market does not change the policy advocated , ;.by this letter. I have advised a fully invested position in investment 'accounts where income is paramount and where a possible decline .of 20 .would not be important because of tax reasons. I have advocated holding ' , new funds liquid awaiting a more favorable buying opportunity. Would conti';',. .. nue this advice except that I would re-appraise holdings and switch out of ; both fully valued and undesirable situations into the type of issues men- . 'tioned above. . , In intermediate trading accounts mainly concerned with capital appre-' ' . ,ciation of six months, I have refommended a partially liquid position. Un-. til recently, I had advised investment of only 25 of available funds. At , the June lows I advised raising invested position to 50. Would continue this action provided funds are invested in the unexploited situations men- tioned previously. July 27, 1951 Dow-Jones Industrils 259.23 Dow-Joll.elil Bails, ; ; 81 69' EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWI.,N ' Thu mem.orandll II not to be construed as an offlr or IOlieltati,on of offen to buy or ell any ulcurities From time to time Wahton, Hoffman & Goodwin rntl) have a.n Intere!t In some or fiJI, of th ncurltlU mentioned herein, Th. foregOing material h.u been prepared b)' us as a matter of information onl)'. It IS based up-on information behe….d rerlabe J.but not nec;,euarily compl,te, It not ;uaranteed as flccurat. or finfll, nd is not int.nd.d t foreclose lndependent inqulrv. ,. ''''; I !7,tL,',,,';!,';',', ',' ' . , ' . ' ,– ';,;. '. T', , '1 . . ,rf– ,. . -;J . ,. .

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