Viewing Year: 1990

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 05, 1990

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 05, 1990

Tabell's Market Letter - January 05, 1990
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/' ,- TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 987-2300 January 5, 1990 The 'boy' Called' ou t -Wolf, Wolft anci th'e villagerlPCame-u t 'to he1p' hlm.c' A''few days afterward he tried the same trICk, and again they came to his help. Shortly after this a Wolf actually came, but this time the villagers thought the boy was deceiving them again and nobody came to his help. Aesop -' The year-end rally extended its near-perfect record of continuing past year-end, with 1990's initial trading day producing a 57-point move to new highs on the Dow. The current market cycle will, therefore, be known (at least) as the 1987-1990 bull market. Despite the strength, technical action can hardly be said to have improved, and particularly abysmal has been the action of market breadth, as shown in the chart below of our daily breadth index from October, 1987 to date. '-. DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL 4YcR4GE 8EDTri (ADv – DEC lUNCH) , ,liY – —— if-;'f\!t.'Jt -'l\v-J.,J-I!I\/or—- – – – – – I I –17a Dcl 2C3b 7-.5-ae on 21se IO-21-!!8 on 213 -s -e!' OJI 2700 lo–e 0.'1 271 i, 'iI We use the Aesop quote as prologue to a discussion of breadth since it is an indicator which led us astray back in 1988. Breadth anlysis, our readers will be aware, involves the construction of an index based on the difference between advancing and declining stocks. (Thre can be further refinements We divide that difference by the number of issues unchanged.) In any case, the theory runs. new highs in the averages should be confirmed by peaks in breadth, and repeated failures so to confirm constitute an early-warning (often a very-early-warning) signal of an impending top. As the chart shows, just such action took place between March and October of 1988. Three successive market rallies took the Dow to higher levels, f,rst at 2086, tlien at 2158, and finally at 2183. The breadth peak on each one of these rallies was lower, thus producing a classic divergence. It was not a very good signal. The 1989 rally broke the breadth downtrend early in that year, and the new high was finally confirmed in July with the Dow on its way to 2700. Barely a month after this belated confirmation, a new divergence appeared. Breadth peaked on August 8 with the Dow just under 2700. The corresponding peak at the average's 1989 high was noticeably lower. The level of the breadth index at Tuesday's new high was lower still We intend to monitor breadth closely during 1990. Its historical record is, in our view, not tarnished by the false 1988 warning. Further new market highs unconfirmed by breadth may well, at this stage, signify the arrival of the bull market's final phase. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (114/90) AWTebh 2797.57 355 11 5013.67 No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlrectJyor Indirectly, an offer orthe sollcltallOn of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience 01 the subscriber While we beheve the sources of our information 10 be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc ,as a corporation and lis offICers or employees, may now have, or may later take, pOSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such poSItion may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Taben Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVIsor, may gIVe adVice to ItS Inves1ment adVISOry and other customers Independently 01 any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security menboned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 12, 1990

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 12, 1990

Tabell's Market Letter - January 12, 1990
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— ————- TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 January 12, 1990 -…. Three -weeks -ago, -when.. we ,-isBued our-year-end foreca8t ….-we expressed .ourbeliefthatan important- market top was likely to occur during the year 1990. We qualified this, however, by opining that the year would see new highs above the 2791.41 peak which had been registered by the Dow on October 9th. The latter part of this forecast has already turned out to be technically correct. On the very first day of the new year the Average staged a 50-point rally to another newall-time high at 2810.15. However, the market promptly backed off, and that January 2nd figure remains the only instance of a new market high that has occurred since last October. We hasten to say that we are not bragging about the so-called correctness of. our forecast, and, indeed, we herewith promise not to do so if January 2, 1990, turns out to be the high of a 1990 – 19 bear market. It is. of course, irrelevant that a new peak. less than 1 above the old one, has been attained. The important question. obviously. is whether further meaningful new highs may occur later on in the young current year. It is our view that such is likely to be the case. We say this despite the poor market breadth which we spent the entire last issue of this letter detailing. Indeed, the breadth picture is even a bit worse than the one we described last week, for that letter discussed only our daily breadth indicator. Its weekly counterpart which, in recent years. has shown more pronounced upside bias—and which did, in 1988, corroborate the new highs which the daily index failed to confirm—is now showing the same sort of action as the daily figure. It has refused to post a new high since September 1st, producing a 19-week divergence which is easily the longest of the bull market to date. It needs to be remembered. however, that breadth and momentum indicators. none of which are acting all that well, tend to show a significant lead time on market peaks. There would be nothing historically inconsistent in market action in which the September-October peaks turned out to be the final ones for breadth while the averages continued to rise well into the new year. In addition. of …. coul'se-;-it ould–alBo-be possiblegivEm-!-furtlrer–market'!-strength -for-riewbreadth-p–eEik-slobeC—–'- – achieved and present us with the gift of a general market in gear with the popular averages on the upside. ' An example drawn from the historical record is the study we published last September which summarized what took place in post-World-War-II bull markets after they had staged their longest rally. The longest advance for the present bull market. we now know, covered 225 trading days. almost a year, between November 16, 1988, and October of last year. We are, at the moment, 65 trading days past the high of that rally. We noted in September that the ultimate peak for'past bull markets occurred by amounts ranging from 106 to 705 trading days following the end of the longest upswing. This statistic alone suggests that the current rise might possess a further life span. While history does provide us with plenty of precedent for a bull market lasting longer than this one has, it also demonstrates that the bulk of any bull market move tends to take place in the early stages. All but three of the post-1949 bull markets had completed three-quarters or more of their total advance by the time their second birthday had been attained. Thus while it is possible to foresee new highs, it remains probable that they will not be all that different from levels already reached. It must furthermore be remembered that the question of whether the bull market's final peak has been attained may not be all that important. Market analysts, like the generals who are always prepared to fight the last war, tend to worry about action that resembles the last bear market. This is why the Friday-the-13th decline was so scary. It occurred after only a short top formation and was compressed into one day. thus exhibiting an uncomfortable similarity to the 1987 bear market. It must be stressed that this is not the way market tops usually form. The record shows that once an actual peak is attained. the market tends to remain in the vicinity of that peak for an extended period of time. During this time period. hopefully. the assiduou technician….. can detect the deterioration which leads to a defensive stance. We are, thus, ready to extend the year-end forecast to call for further upside action. We stress. however. that such action is likely to be not very dynamic and highly selective. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (1/11/90) AWT It 2716.51 342.79 4999.56 No statement or epresslon of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an oHer orthe soliCitatIOn of an oHer to buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscflber While we beheve the sources 01 our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be dlHerent from any views now or hereafter epressed 1(\ thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey Tabell Inc, which IS reg1stered With the SEC as an Investment adVISor, may gIVe adVice to ItS Investment adVisory and other customers Independently 01 any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further informatIOn on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 19, 1990

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 19, 1990

Tabell's Market Letter - January 19, 1990
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– – – – r- ' – – – – – TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, eN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC 1609 967-2300 January 19. 1990 I..,.-.. ,,—Thj lette! ouJ-lQitself QJ1ce…..ag'!!D blind-ied-la!l!wek -byb.t .. w–hy COIJlJto .call .. tbe , Friday-Afternoon Syndrome ,In order that the U.S. Post Offic-e manage delivery of our weekly . opus before the markets under discussion have become ancient history. it is necessary to have it in the printer's hands by Friday noon. Friday-p.m. stock-market action seems, with distressing frequency. to be 'at variance with the scenario discussed in the letter. ….- ….. Such was the case last week. when we chose to reiterate our year-end forecast, suggesting that. while we still expect a market top sometime in 1990. a further push to new highs before that top seemed likely. On Thursday, when we initially prepared that comment, the Dow had been up 10 points and, at 2760, was off only modestly from its all-time January 2 high of 2810. Friday then produced a 71-point decline, which and was followed by further weakness later on in the week, as the average probed for support in the lower 2600's. We will be commenting on the technical implications of all this below. but we cannot resist first noting what seemed to us a dramatic shift in psychology in last week's financial press. A wave of pessimism appeared to arrive from across the Pacific, as the Tokyo market plunged sharply. It currently finds itself down 5, hardly a major disaster. (Even more than with our own market it is necessary to convert the Nikkei Average to percentage terms since it sells around the 36,000 level and, on Friday, posted a 653-point decline.) U.S. stocks tended to open, each morning last week to the tune of portentous comments regarding the latest Tokyo drop. , There are, actually, two schools of thought as to the effect protracted weakness in Japan might have on U.S. markets. The pessimistic view suggests that what is now the world's largest stock market could, in a protracted collapse, drag the U.S. and other markett down with it In some sort of global cataclysm. The contrary contention is that money coming out of Japan has to go somewhere, and the U.S. might prove to be a convenient haven. It was the former argument, however, that prevailed last week. 1—II——…..;-Theweek'''large''t–doseofgloomy4inafleial-newsothough,-wased-by-thGhapter-l1 — filing of Campeau Corporation. There were, on Tuesday, 40 separate stories on the Dow Jones news ticker, and these were followed by thirty more through Friday morning. Although we maintain many statistics, we do not keep score of single-topic stories showing up on the broad tape. We would guess, however, that this was some kind of a record. It was certainly not without justification. Campeau had managed to spend some 10 billion on the purchase of Federated Department Stores and Allied Stores and, as some legislator is purported to have said, a billion here, a billion there; pretty soon you're talking about a lot of money.1f A New York Times editorial had, we thought, the best comment on the situatIon, noting that it was Mr. Campeau's special genius to find a way to bankrupt more than 250 profitable department stores. The problem with the Japan and Campeau incidents is their potential to constitute the seed of all sorts of panic scenarios—global financial collapse in the one instance and a spreading round of bankruptcies if Campeau Corp. turns out to be the Krueger & Toll of the 1990's. The problem is that the technical scenario does not seem to be foretelling any sort of economic Ar,mageddon. ' The Dow, last week f broke below a short-term top. which has a plausible downside target of 2600. The 2650-2600 level constitutes fairly strong support, having been the POHt-October platform from which the year-end rally took off. It is the possibility of the market's penetrating that support which must now concern us a What such a break would imply is that October 1989 – January 1990 constituted a double top and that the high of the bull market which began in late 1987 was scored on the first day of the new year in 1990. This scenario was referred to as a possible but less-than-likely prospect in our year-end forecast. We still regard it with some degree of skepticism. Were it to prove to be the cRse—and we are not yet ready to Bct on this assumption—the likely aftermath would be a conventional bear- market with a downside objective around 2200, not a pleasant prospect goodness knows, but something considerably short of the end of the world. This is probably worth keeping in mind if the upcoming weeks bring a continuing onslaught of pessimistic financial news. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (1118/90) AWTebh 2679.61 340.06 4859.66 No statemem or expression 01 opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer orthe soliCitatIOn of an offer to buy or sell any secUrity referred to or menhoned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we beheve the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor oj the statements made herein Any achon to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , as a corporation Bnd ItS officers Of employees, may now have, or may later take, posrhons or trades In respect to any securities menhoned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other ISsue Delafield, Harvey, Tabetllnc, which IS registered with the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may gIVe adVIce to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Informabon on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – January 25, 1990

Tabell’s Market Letter – January 25, 1990

Tabell's Market Letter - January 25, 1990
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, eN 5209, PRIN CETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 January 25. 1990 ..Onlyaninc!,r.'!bl-pti!!CUld .find aything construcive to.say abou!!,e market – , achon of last week– ltb-egan Wlth-a-77-pOlnt. Monday dechne whlC'flDrougnt the-Dow.at —– day's end. to almost exactly the 2600 level. Tuesday produced a sporadic recovery with early and late strength surrounding mid-day weakness. The poor reception accorded the Resolution Trust financing touched off a 60-point decline for the Dow on Wednesday morning along with the unsurprising bond-market weakness. A good portion of the ground lost was recovered in late Wednesday and early Thursday trading. but that rally attempt fizzled and produced the first close below 2600 for the DJIA. What is going on here is. of course, fairly obvious. Most major averages are now probing for support in that broad 2600-2500 area where the Friday-the-13th debacle of last October was halted. By the end of the day on Thursday. most averages. especially the broader ones. had moved below their October bottoms. Only the Utility Average (along with the Industrials on an intra-day basis) remained above their levels of last fall. There are, unfortunately. 8 number of negative factors now present with which markets did not have to contend in late 1989. Among them is the failure of the year-end rally which topped out on the very first day of the year. In addition. the December low of 2687.93. reached on the 20th. was decisively penetrated two weeks ago. We discussed the significance of this phenomenon in our regular treatise on the year-end rally at the end of December. We noted that. in years when the December low has been broken. the subsequent trend of the market has been downward two-thirds of the time. L.ikewise, the rally's end in early January does not augur well for 1990's prospects. Meanwhile. market breadth. a thorn in the side of the market ever since it failed to confirm new peaks in the averages in early October, has continued to show abysmal action. The 1336 NYSE declines in Monday's trading and the 1207 falling stocks for Wednesday are hardly the sort of numbers that inspire confidence. Our daily breadth indicator is now 25 1…,.-J…,,o-..,.points..,ij.l!-,and….since….1heree1ists no market uswingon record where b.relad'.!t,hc…,,…,,-,….,–t has dropped this much. and the market then 'wenf on to new -peaks. ' (This is not to say that the averages have never moved to new highs after this sort of a breadth decline. Since breadth is a leading indicator. they have often done so. although in most cases the margin over the previous high was not great.) Likewise disturbing are the 194 52-week lows which emerged on Wednesday. They represented a bit over 9 of the total issues traded on that day. and this is a level which usually emerges well after the market has passed its zenith. There remain, of course, even after last week's weakness, a few indicators, most of them dealing with sentiment, which remain positive. One such is the level of mutual-fund cash which, the latest reports tell us, is, to say the least, currently ample. Advisory sentiment likewise has recently swung to bullish levels. Market action, however, tends to belie these figures. We have reached that point, it seems to us, a point which occurs in the mature stages of most major upswings, where it will be necessary for the mRrket to prove itself. The move below their October levels by most averages still falls a bit short of being decisive. One way that improved action could be demon!Jtrated would be for the major indices to hold around current levels and eventually rebase. There is. unfortunately, very little in last week's pattern which suggests the likelihood of this taking place. In one respect, action over the past few months, since early last fall, has been much like that of 1987. As was the case at that time. tops have built up with a rapidity totally atypical of market action prior to the late 1980's. This phenomenon—substantial market deterioration occurring in the space of a few weeks—is a new one and remains to be fully examined. What must be noted, though. in contrast to the pattern prior to the crash a couple of years ago. mmt tops appear to be small and; in many cases, indicate nothing more than a return to strong support, support. just above bases which still indicate higher objectives. However unpleasant possible upcoming I weakness may be. a fair number of stocks. we think. should reach levels at which they will be attractive buys. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials 0200) 2561.26 S & P 500 (1200) 327.91 Cumulative Index (1/25/90) 4725.17 AWTebh No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemedto be, directly or Indirectly, an offer orthe solicitation 01 an offerto buy or sell any securrty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any acllon to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc ,as a corporation and s officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, positions or trades In respect to any securities menlloned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any Vlews now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVISor, may give advice to lIs Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently 01 any statements made m thiS or In any other Issue Further Informallon on any securrty mentioned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 02, 1990

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 02, 1990

Tabell's Market Letter - February 02, 1990
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11 1mIE 1l..1l..' S 1R2&t1E1I n.1E1I1I1ER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 987-2300 February 2, 1990 Finally, what must be conceded to have been. on the whole, a rather dismal January, managed, on – , .-,;-Wednesday;-tOjrodu',,,otlerlrtely'vigorous recove'ry;–The-Dow- rallier!l15!lie-47 -poiht;P!irfd7'fo-rth,,–,,-,,.,-,1 ,..,.. first time since January 2, the number of advancing stocks managed to attain four figuresa After a mixed Thursday, strength continued Friday morning. For those who insist on grasping at straws, we herewith offer one by pointing out that the rally managed to occur without the Dow. in the strictest sense, posting a new low. Tuesday's close of 2543.24 was, indeed, below the October 13 close of 2569.26. However, the intra-day bottom of 2513.06 held, by the skin of its teeth, above the October 16 intra-day low of 2496.93. More importantly, perhaps, our point-and-figure charts, which are posted on half-hour figures, did not show a new DJIA bottom. All this might be encouraging had not the major S & P Averages moved decisively to levels below those of October. It seems, indeed, that the broader the average one looks at the worse its short-term relative performance. This phenomenon—good relative strength by the Dow—is not, historically, encouraging. As might be expected, the word oversold surfaced repeatedly in last week's market comment. This, in our view, is one of the most abused words in the technical lexicon, in that about 99 of the time it appears, it is accompanied by no quantitative definition of Just exactly what it means. There are, indeed, many indicators designed to register oversold (or overbought) market conditions, but let us, for the purposes of this exercise, focus on one of the most widely used of such indicators, the 10-day advance-decline oscillator. The wide usage of this particular indicator may well be attributed to its simplicity of construction. It consists of nothing more than the total of advancing stocks for the prior 10 days less the corresponding total of declines. We have tracked this figure for some time and its popularity, we think, does not affect its usefulness. A fairly good market trivia question concerns the date of the all-time low for this particular oscillator. That date was not October 19, 1987, but October 27, 1978, when the advance-decline difference reached an astonishing -9382, almost 50 of al1 issues traded. -This comp-ares Wit)\ the 1987 low of -9141, 01' 455-of stocks changing-hands. This- further adjustment—the conversion of, the oscillator to a percentage of issues traded—is Obviously necessary if one wishes to track it over long periods of time. AI1 of what fol1ows wi11 refer to the indicator in those percentage terms. The recent low for this particular indicator occurred three days before the .January 30 market low at -23.88. It had not been below this level since the current bul1 market's onset two years ago October. We wi11 attempt here to put this number into perspective. A useful way of looking at market history for analytical purposes is by the application of a filter rule, taking each move of a given percentage or greater. Applying a 10 filter, there have been 28 identifiable market lows since June' 1949. (We ourselves recognize only ten of these as having been major market bottoms, but our definition is, admittedly, subjective, while the filter rule produces a more disciplined structure.) AI1 28 low points have, unsurprisingly, produced an identifiable low on the 10-day osci11ator frequently occurring (in 12 of 28 instances) on the actual day the market makes its low. In 15 of the 16 other cases, the osci11ator low led the low on the Dow by amounts ranging from 1 to 18 trading days. Our first task is to relate these prior instances to the current one. When we do so, we find that 19 of 28 instances wound up producing a lower figure than the present -23.88. The 1978 record is noted above, and most major bear-market bottoms seem to have produced a low somewhere in the -30's. There are. of course. exceptions. Prior to August 12, 1982, for example, the osci11ator never got below -19.72. We said above that a negative figure for the oscillator had appeared in the vicinity of al1 28 market lows under study. Unfortunately. low numbers tend to appear at points other than major bottoms. thus producing falsen signals. If one envisions -24. the recent figure. as a threshold level, in how many of the 28 declines under study has a group of such figures appeared prior to the market's actual bottom I In the 1950's Rnd 1960's, there were relatively'.. few such false signals and again relatively few in ……;.. the 1980's. In the 1970's. however. many declines took place in which repeated oversold conditions occurred on the way down. A good example is 1968-70, when the Dow dropped some 36 from a high of 985.21. The 10-day oscillator reached below -24 in February 1969 (Dow, 908), June 1969 (Dow, 12), July 1969 (Dow, 834), November-December 1969 (Dow, 823), January 1970 (Dow, 744), and April 1970 (Dow, 775), for a total of six false signals before the Average finaJly bottomed out on May 26, at 631.16. We are, therefore, unwilling to attach a great deal of significance to the IO-day oscillator's having reached a relatively low level latlt week. Its tendency to lead market oottoms tIuggests that further lows over the next two to three weeks might be seen, and the existence of past similar conditions within the framework of major bear markets is not encouraging. We intend. therefore. to await further evidence before assessing the finality of the January 30 market low. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) 2613.29 S & P 500 (12 00) 330.91 Cumulative Index (2/1/90) 4712.72 No statement or expression of opimon or any O1her matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlreclly or Indirectly, an offer or the sohcltatlon of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convemence of the subsCriber White we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we in no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own inveStigation and mformatlon Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc ,as a corporation and Its officers or emptoyees, may now have, or may later take, positions or trades In respect to any seCUrities menboned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posillon may be dlfferenllrom any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc ,WhiCh IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may gIVe adVice to lIs investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 09, 1990

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 09, 1990

Tabell's Market Letter - February 09, 1990
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– — – ———– TABUELL'S MaRKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (6091 987-2300 February 9, 1990 I—-,-',——C'''——–'-'-'''''''–'''''-'— I- It occurs to us that, on our comment over recent months. we are especially vulnerable to the charge of hedging—an art which, we must admit, over 35 years of penning market letters, we have learned something about. One of the oldest hedging rules is. If you give 'em a number, don't give 'em a time, and if you give 'em a time, don't give 'em a number. It is, in other words. permissible to forecast the Dow's reaching, say, 5,000. if you do not specify precisely when this happy event is going to occur. Likewise, one can opine that the market will be higher at year-end, but saying just how much higher constitutes sticking one's neck out. We have, in this space, been bandying about two numbers (without giving a time) for the Dow. These numbers are, first, an upside objective of 3400 and, secondly, a downside target of 2200, It may well occur to our readers that this spread is a contender for the all-time, world-class, championship hedge. We had, therefore, better explain ourselves a little further. The first figure is derived, quite simply, from the 50-point-unit chart on the Dow shown at left. A simple measurement of the 1987-1989 accumulation area across the 2100 line, standard practice wlth P & F charts, yields, as we have shown. a 3400 target. However, when we referred to this objective most recently, in our year-end forecast. we noted that. it is quite possible that the market top out before this objective is attained and, a bear market, reach it on the little formation on the side of the chart and the question of whether it is or is not a distributional top. For a closer analysis, let us shift both the scale and subject matter, looking at the two-point unit chart of the S & P 500 below. It, unfortunately, more so than the Dow, appears to be a completed top, with a downside breakout having duly taken place late last month. The downtrlde objective is 282, some 15 below current prices, as the Dow's comparable 2200 objective Is about the same percentage below its present level. The Dow, however, as we noted last week, has not yet posted a downside breakout. For the short term, both 340 averages have small bases, with upside targets of 340 for the S & P and 2700 for the Dow, at which levels 3'lo they would both run into fairly massive overhead '32D supply. Their behavior, as those figures are attained should afford some indication as to whether the market can rebase and attempt new highs, or 310 whether the distributional-top theory is the correct 300 one. A decline to 2200, it must be noted, although a drop of cycle-bear-market scale, would simply 2.90 constitute a return to support While the spread between 3400 and 2200 is huge, it remains necessary, in an imperfect world, to keep both numbers in mind when trying to formulate a market scenario. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (12 00) Cumulative Index (02/08/90) AWTebh 2643.69 332.58 4794.66 No statement or expreSSion of opInion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an offerlo buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe Ihe sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guaranlee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any acMn to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabel! Inc. as a corporation and Its afllcers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, pOSitions or trades In respect 10 any secuntles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, Bnd such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered with the SEC as an Investment advisor, may give adVice to ItS Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Informa\!on on any secunty menliOned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 16, 1990

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 16, 1990

Tabell's Market Letter - February 16, 1990
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 987-2300 ,.,..-,Thi weX, th'L toc '!LaJ-keLand, the bo!l'LmAJlo;!sllrJ!gg!'LofLthe sell'l.ational J'!!lLollapse of the already-wounded ,Drexel Burnham Lambert, putting'to resCthi' rise and fan of one of tb most -influential financial institutions in the 1980's. Rest in Peace' Investor are again left to deal with the ongoing task of addressing an uncertain stock market within a framework that is asking some difficult, short-term questions— Is the 9.5 decline since the first of the year in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over If so, will the DJIA be able to break through its old high of 2810.15, made just O trading days ago on January 2 If not, will the DJIA penetrate the 2542.24 low made on January 30 Market changes are often accompanied by shifts in sector and group leadership, and there is some indication that this is gradually taking place. The table below compares the period from January 1989 to date with the most recent six-week changes for S&P industrial groups as of this Wednesday. The start of the six-week period is coincident with the DJIA record high of 2810.15. The figures on the left show the 30 best-performing groups ou t of a total of 95 from 1989 to date and is ranked in that order. The table on the right is ranked on six-week changes and shows the best-performing groups for that timeframe. SP INDUSTRY GROUP PRICE \ CHANGES PERCENTAGe CHANGes THRU reb 14 1990 GROUP NAME ,OIL & GAS DRILLING ENGINEERING' CONSTRUCTION GOLD – OIL WELL EQufpMEN AND SERVICE FROM Jan 3 1990 RANK 1; CHG 7 051 1 12 5.. 20 …216 5 2 042 ENTERTAINMENT 63 -9 814 SOFT DRINKS TOBACCO POLLUTION CONTROL COMMUNICATION EQUIP/MFRS -10 645 60 -9.683 61 -9 754 -.20 167 TOYS 19 -3 893 HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS 43 -7.869 SHOes 78 -12 043 HOSPITAL MANAGEMENT COMPANIES 92 -15 927 OIL INTEGRATED DOMESTIC PROPERTY-CASUALITY INSURANCE -,8 1 051 25 650 COSMETICS DRUGS -9 790 4J -8 281 NA'I'URAL GAS 41 -7 589 HELTH CARE-COMPOSITE RESTAURANTS TELEPHONE (NEW) -8 042 39 as -7 266 -13.535 ELI;CTRICAL EQUIPMEUT 33 -5 951 BROADCAST MEDIA HEALTH CARE-MISC -7 905 3 8 010 LIFE INSURANCE 89 -15 675 HEALTH CARE-DIVERSIIED or t COMPOSITE ,RETAIL STORES DEPARTMENT SAVINGS LOAN COMPANIES -7 '29 11 -0 74. -8 36. 18 -3 547 COAL 74 -11 557 ,fROM Jan 1989 SiP INDUSTRY GROUP PRICE \ CHANGES PERCENTAGE CHANGES THRU Feb 14 1990 FROJ't Jan 3 1990 RANK 1; CHG. GROUP NAME RANK \ CHG 1 85.543 ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION 1 12 594 ,2 73.821 GOLD 3..-59 -994–flEAf,TM-'-GARE-JIII-5C 51 044 OIL & GAS DRILLING ,2 10 216 3.-…….a–l-Q 7.051 5 50 965 COJ'tPUTER SYSTEMS 5 2 298 6 6 645 OIL WELL EQUIPJ'tENT AND SERVICe 6 2 042 7 45.182 COJIIPUTER SOFTWARE , SERVICES 7 1. 7'2 8 44 714 OIL INTEGRATED DOMESTIC 8 1 051 9 43 125 MACHINERY-DIVERSIFIED 9 0.292 10 41 749 ELECTRONICS SEJ'tICONDUCTORS 10 0.097 11 41 073 OIL COJ'tPOSITE 11 -0 740 ' 12 37 781 OIL. INTEGRATED INTERNATIONAL 12 -1 739 13 36 916 EXCLUDING I.B.M 13 -2 183 14 36 009 REAL ESTATE INVESTJ'tENT TRUSTS 14 -3.125 15 35 578 CONGLOMERATES 15 -3.155 16 35 280 AUTOMOBILE 16 -3. 532 17 35 200 ELECTRONICSINSTRUJ'tENTATION 17 -3. 543 16 34 176 SAVINGS & LOAN COMPAN1ES 18 -3. 547 19 32 395 TOYS 19 -3.893 20 31 67 COMJ'tUNICATION EQUIP/MFRS 20 -4.167 21 31 286 CONTAINER METAL , GLASS 21 -4.228 22 31.062 EXCLUDING GEN MOTORS 22 -4.251 23 31 002 RAILROADS 30 390 INSURANCE BROKERS 25 28 978 PROPERTY-CASUALITY INSURANCE 26 28 621 MANUFACTURINGfOIV IND. ) Z7 28 1. CTRIC COMPANIES 23 -4.402 -. -4.455 25 650 26 661 –..Z7 758 28 27 530 MACHINE TOOLS 28 -5 029 29 26 516 PERSONAL LOANS 29 -5 173 30 26 128 CHEMICALS-DIV '30 -5 FROM Jan 1989 RANK \ CHG. 2 73.821 3 59 994 2—-10;390- as -1 543 86 -14 749 , 51 044 42 16 792 14 36 009 44 18.367 31 25.239 ..27 28.144 32 24 134 87 -13.787 -22.284 os 18.230 81 -8.589 86 -13.180 ,29 26 518 10 41.749 43.125 57 10.758 93 -17.726 35 20.622 72 0.000 15 35.578 61 5.226 ., ,47 17 824 9S -26.774 107 59 9 .214 The obvious observation gaineil by looking at the left-hand.table is that it is dominated by the energy and consumer goods sectors of the market.- Substantial percentage gains in groups related to food and oil were registered from 1999 to date, well above the Standard & Poor's 500 Average. However, a number of these groups. which have ranked in the top 30 in performance since January 1989. have dropped in rank when measured over the most recent six-week period. The right-hand table. while still favoring the energy sector, shows a number of interesting new names. These include computers. electronics, automobiles, and machine tools. Many of these groups were among the worst performers last year, but have, in the last six weeks. moved into the top third of the hst. This group rotation is important to monitor in order to identify internal changes occurring within the stock market. It is these changes that could give us supporting evidence in determining the short-term direction of the market, currently contained by the benchmark high of January 2 at 2810.15 and the recent low posted at 2542.24 on January 30. ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY. TABELL INC. Dow .Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (2/15/90) RJS ebh 2654.50 335.48 4783.97 No statement or expression of opInion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or Indlreclly, an ofter orthe soliCitation of an after to buy or sell any secunty relerred to or menlloned The mailer IS presented merely for the convemence of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our InformallOn to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any aCllO,n to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own InvestlgattDn and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a co(poralon and rls offICers or employees. may now have, or may later take, POSIIOOS or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any Iulure ISSue, and such poSitIOn may be dlfterentfrom any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delaheld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SEC asan Investment adViSor, may give adVIce to ItS westment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or m any other ISsue Further Informallan on any seCUrity menllOned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 23, 1990

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 23, 1990

Tabell's Market Letter - February 23, 1990
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (6091 987-2300 February 23, 1990 –'—O;;fWi;;thdtshl;rt;mai-;!.;i!letended – – — to feature anthropomorphic bulls and bears, This week's featured Michael Milken, and the cover article's subject was the bankruptcy of Drexel Burnham Lambert. I1A new era had arrived, the story proclaimed, replacing. we were told. the old era of the Roaring Eighties, If this is so, it is appropriate that the old era's demise should be announced in a mass-circulation magazine. for the salient characteristic of the 80's. as an era in securities markets. was that the decade's financial excesses. as never before in our view, took place under the glare of the media spotlight- This aspect is somewhat at variance with the way market historians tend to think about economic boom-and-bust cycles. For us, the seminal work on past manias has always been Charles Mackay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Published in 1841, it records the history of such events as the Mississippi Scheme, the South-Sea Bubble, and the Holland-Tulip-Bulb Mania Extraordinary the 1980's may indeed have been, but we are not sure the words popular and delusion are precisely applicable to the present case. The former adjective seems inappropriate since public participation in the decade's financial debauchery was conspicuous by its absence. Individuals, by and large, have continued to be net sellers of common stock, and they are estimated to own directly less than 5 of all outstanding junk bonds. Nor can it be said that the public at large was deluded about what was going on. In the 1920's, by all accounts, Wall Street leadership was generally admired prior to the crash, while. this time around, the purveyors of corporate America's mountain of debt found themselves regularly being excoriated on the nation's editorial pages. The editorial-writers had, in short, seemingly for the first time, discovered greed—not the most attractive of human characteristics but nonetheless one that has often emerged, both in the financial community and elsewhere. hh….-,…..—ene;Coul-d-';–indeedtnot—even-go….to–the-movie8thout -being…informed…of…..the-;iniquities-,….,.,..,,–…..,.)– of Wall Street—the movie of that title presenting Michael Somebody-Or;Other (Why do all Hollywood leading men these days seem to be named Michael) portraying the slimiest villain since the era of Peter Lorre and Sydney Greenstreet. Publishers, too, joined in the furor, in which slots on the best-seller lists were regularly occupied by tomes exploring the seamier aspects of the financial community7 ranging from The Predators' Ball to Liar's Poker. The best of these. unsurprisingly, was fiction—The Bonfire of the Vanities 7 in which Tom Wolfe presented us with the bond salesman as tragic hero, Oedipus Rex on Wall Street. It is certainly not our intention here to justify the assorted outbursts of financial lunacy which came to characterize much of the industry over the past ten years. Our readers are aware that we have, with some regularity, been critical of a good many of them. We offer the thought, however, that the denouements of past boom-bust cycles have tended to be quick, with the publicity coming after the peak, while. in this instance, much of the media hype took place on the upside. Likewise, present difficulties will probably take time to resolve. The resolution of the junk bond situation, for example, will. of necessity. take place over many years, as we learn what the actual default rate on the 200 billion of paper outstanding will turn out to be, This protracted process is unlikely to be the sort of thing which produces front-page news. All of this may explain why the stock market reacted to the Drexel collapse with, essentially. a yawn. Markets. it seems. were already discounting the news that Time breathlessly reported. We, ourselves, after more than two years of rising prices. are, as readers know, less than sanguine about the market's immediate prospects. Nonetheless, our worst-case scenario does not envision anything more than a routine cycle bear-market. The new era, in other words, may well include the welcome retirement of the securities industry from front-page status. – …..- . . – – – – ANTHONY W, TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC, Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (2/22/90) 2554.73 324 42 4733,26 AWTebh No statement or expression 01 opinion or any other matter herein contained,s, or 15 to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an offer orthe soliCitation 01 an offer to buy or sell any security reterred to or menlloned The matter IS presented merety for the Convenience of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we ,n no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor olthe statements made herein Any acllOn to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc ,as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, positions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any luture Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered with Ihe SEC as an Inveslmentadvlsor, may give adVice to lis Investment adVISOry and olher customers Independently 01 any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security menlloned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 02, 1990

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 02, 1990

Tabell's Market Letter - March 02, 1990
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 March 2. 1990 – –.-y!e–. herewithw.arn ……therearlr—th'!iour e!ter ,tbJwk, .. will-'—qQn8iJJt. a,..QscJl.iQ!1..Qf,,.,…..,..,..,….-.,,.J- the rather formidable array of numbers below Those who are turned off -by this sort of thing – – may immediately consign this sheet to the waste basket. Numbers freaks that we are, our own view is that these statistics manage to shed some useful light on the market outlook. 1989 HlSh Late 1989 Low Januar HlSh Januar Low Februar H'Sh Februar Low 3/1 DJ Ind. 2791.41(10/9) 2569.26(10/13) 2810.15(112) SlP 500 359.80(1019) 332.61 (11/6) 359.69(112) IIJ Tran 1532.01 (9/5) 1136.74(12120) 1201.10(1/2) DJ Ut,l 219.50(10/10) 211.96(10/13) 236.23(112) OTe Ind. 472.4 (10/9) 432.1 (11/6) 455.6 (113) Breadth 1026.90 (8/8) 1008.85 (11/6) 1015.56( 113) 2543.24(1/30) 2649.55(2/15) 2564.19(2/23) 2635.59 322.98(1130) 334.89(2/15) 324.15(2/23) 332.74 1031.83(1/30) 1088.19 (2/9) 1076.64(2/22) 1133.89 216.30(1125) 223.91 (2/9) 216.86(2/22) 219.13 410.7 (1/30) 434.2 (2/15) 424.1 (2/23) 431.8 996.77(1/30) 1001.04 (2/9) 996.05(2/23) 998.29 As can be seen. the table traces the history of five market averages plus our daily breadth index from late last year though yesterday. The left-hand column serves to suggest that the stock market scene, as of last October, was essentially tranquil. Most major averages were in the area of their all-time highs. and it would have been picayune to point out that breadth had not posted a high since August and that the DJ Transports apparently had peaked in September. There is the old story of the farmer whacking his mule across the forehead with a 2-by-4. asserting that this was iust to get his attention. The October decline—200 points on the Dow—occurring. serendipitously, on Friday the 13th—served admirably to get investors' attention. What followed was, for the market. a process of separating the men from the boys. For the Dow Jones Innustrials and Utilities. the break was a one-day affair with lows 1—-'belflg-postd.atb-'–othl'–indi.tor-s,a8Ahetable.ghows,wentontonewbottoms.,…- three weeks later The Transports-, in the course of emerging -as theweakest -of the-bunch continued to a new low in December. posting a whopping 25 decline. The year-end rally arriYed on schedule. and the first two days of the new year were bright ones. 8S the averages continued to move ahead. For the Industrials and Utilities, once more. new. all-time highs were involved. The S & P 500. however, marginally failed to better its October peak. and OTC issues. Transports and Breadth fell well short. It was clear, by this stage. that market leadership was becoming sharply narrower. January was a declining month with the low occurring at month-end. Most of the averages posted new lows. below the bottoms which had occurred in the fall of 1988. Only the Utilities were able to hold well above their prior bottom. although the DJIA also did so on an intra-day basis. In most cases, however. the penetration of October-December lows was decisive By this time, there was abundant evidence of market deterioration. Breadth was below its level of November. 1988 when the Dow was under 2100. The Transports. by this time. had shed almost a third of their value, and even the hitherto-strong utilities posted a fairly seyere decline. It was necessary to begin seriously to consider the possibility that January had seen a rna lor market high. A rally in all of the averages took place in early February. followed by a retracement in which most indicators—breadth. significantly. being an exception—held above their January lows. Prices have moved irregularly upward since. Those January lows and the subsequent. mid-February highs seem to us to be significant points to watch. Ability to penetrate the February peak convincingly. would suggest. for many indicators. a test of the January highs. This is particularly true for the DJIA. which has been showing above-average action for the entire period. It is interesting that the hitherto laggard DJ Transports have already exceeded their mid-February levels., On the other hand. failure of the current advance; … followed -by.newlows .below-those.of January, would buttress the contention that a major downtrend is now in effect. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (12 00) Cumulative Index (3/1190) 2653.38 335.53 4773.88 AWTebh No statement Of expreSSion ot OPInion or any other matter herein contained IS, or ISto be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an Offer orthe solicrtahon ot an offer to buy or sell any secuTity referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we believe the sources of our information to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereot nor 01 the statements made herein Any action to be laken by the subSCriber shOuld be based on hiS own investigation and Intormatlon Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , as a corporation and rts officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, pOSitions or trades In respect 10 any securities menllOned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delalleld, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered wllh the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice tOils Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently ot any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 09, 1990

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 09, 1990

Tabell's Market Letter - March 09, 1990
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 987-2300 March 9. 1990 – – bre-a-kWoeuQtebysJthleed lst V!ee ,J!!l–'l ela9QrattatiJicaL.displayIn. all,—aJtgmp'Q-,ctt1t.a.;;-,;,,,, major averages above theIr -February -highs would,- from a 'II1 have some significance. suggesting a possible test of early-January highs. Before dry on the page. that breakout had indeed taken place. Our letter goes to press at noon on Friday. and the Dow closed the week above 2660. which was. on a point-and-figure basis. an upside breakout. The immediate follow-through, however. was hardly impressive. Monday saw a ten-point pullback on reduced volume. The breakout was confirmed on Tuesday with a post-January high for the Dow. but this also took place on below-average volume. Thursday strength brought the DJIA close to 2700, but breadth and volume improvement were minimal. It made one long for the good old days. when men were men and breakouts were breakouts—producing J more often than not. subsequent fireworks on the upside. The strength in the Dow coincided with like strength in the S & P 500. the Dow Jones Transports. and the NASDAQ OTC Industrials. Ironically. what has been one of the strongest sectors. the DJ Utilities has, so far. failed to produce an upside penetration. Likewise, perhaps more importantly. our breadth index has not yet exceeded its mid-February peak. The reader may have gathered. at this point. that we find ourselves less than overwhelmed by the week's action. One reason for this may be gleaned from the inspection of the two-paint-unit. point-and-figure chart for the S & P 500. reproduced below. The salient feature of the chart is the sharp January break below the October low of 330. making the entire 360-330 range. which had contained the average since late last summer, look like a distributional top. As we pointed out last week. however. the market's decline formed, during the first two months of 1990, la base of sorts. providing an upside platform for this week's move. The objective of that base. is. as we have indicated, in the vicinity of the old high. It is necessary. though. to wonder how easy this will be to achieve in light of the massive supply just overhead. Market breadth. in the meantime. continues indicators having. two weeks ago, moved to new lows. Another indication of weak breadth is the fact that the 10-day advance-decline total reached. back in January. the lowest level it had attained since October, 1987. This, by any standard. denoted an extreme-oversold condition. and from that point the market staged its current rally. This indicator is. of course. a short-term one, but the pattern of successive lows and highs often has longer-term significance. Thus. the appearance of the deepest oversold in two years is characteristic of the latter stages of an upswing. if not a bear market already underway. Given all this. it is not surprising that the follow-up to the breakout was lackadaisical. Paradoxically, if short-term market strength occurs. it is reasonable to suspect it might be sudden and explosive rather than slow and drudging. This thought is induced by the combination of widespread bearish sentiment -among investment advisors and apparent high levels of institutional cash. This is a combination which has produced buying panics in the past (i. e August, 1982 and July. 1984). Today, however. these conditions are being manifested, not after'-a 'decline but against the backgr-ound of a two-year-old –advance. with'ri18jor averages only modestly below their highs. The possibility of a test of the old highs. in other words. does indeed exist, but absent evidence of further market strength, a sustained advance is difficult to visualize at this time. ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TAB ELL INC. Dow Jones Industrials 02 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (3/8/90) 338.84 2689.64 4874.31 AWTebh No statement or expression of opInion or any other mailer herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offeror the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any seCUrity referred to or men\!oned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we beheve the sources of our information to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information DelafIeld, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporation and lIs officers or employees may now have, or may later tak.e, poSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any lulure Issue, and such posllion may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , which IS registered WIth the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to lis Il'lVestmenl adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any seCUrity menliOned herein IS avaIlable on request

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