Tabell’s Market Letter – February 16, 1990

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 16, 1990

Tabell's Market Letter - February 16, 1990
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 600 ALEXANDER ROAD, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 987-2300 ,.,..-,Thi weX, th'L toc '!LaJ-keLand, the bo!l'LmAJlo;!sllrJ!gg!'LofLthe sell'l.ational J'!!lLollapse of the already-wounded ,Drexel Burnham Lambert, putting'to resCthi' rise and fan of one of tb most -influential financial institutions in the 1980's. Rest in Peace' Investor are again left to deal with the ongoing task of addressing an uncertain stock market within a framework that is asking some difficult, short-term questions— Is the 9.5 decline since the first of the year in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over If so, will the DJIA be able to break through its old high of 2810.15, made just O trading days ago on January 2 If not, will the DJIA penetrate the 2542.24 low made on January 30 Market changes are often accompanied by shifts in sector and group leadership, and there is some indication that this is gradually taking place. The table below compares the period from January 1989 to date with the most recent six-week changes for S&P industrial groups as of this Wednesday. The start of the six-week period is coincident with the DJIA record high of 2810.15. The figures on the left show the 30 best-performing groups ou t of a total of 95 from 1989 to date and is ranked in that order. The table on the right is ranked on six-week changes and shows the best-performing groups for that timeframe. SP INDUSTRY GROUP PRICE \ CHANGES PERCENTAGe CHANGes THRU reb 14 1990 GROUP NAME ,OIL & GAS DRILLING ENGINEERING' CONSTRUCTION GOLD – OIL WELL EQufpMEN AND SERVICE FROM Jan 3 1990 RANK 1; CHG 7 051 1 12 5.. 20 …216 5 2 042 ENTERTAINMENT 63 -9 814 SOFT DRINKS TOBACCO POLLUTION CONTROL COMMUNICATION EQUIP/MFRS -10 645 60 -9.683 61 -9 754 -.20 167 TOYS 19 -3 893 HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS 43 -7.869 SHOes 78 -12 043 HOSPITAL MANAGEMENT COMPANIES 92 -15 927 OIL INTEGRATED DOMESTIC PROPERTY-CASUALITY INSURANCE -,8 1 051 25 650 COSMETICS DRUGS -9 790 4J -8 281 NA'I'URAL GAS 41 -7 589 HELTH CARE-COMPOSITE RESTAURANTS TELEPHONE (NEW) -8 042 39 as -7 266 -13.535 ELI;CTRICAL EQUIPMEUT 33 -5 951 BROADCAST MEDIA HEALTH CARE-MISC -7 905 3 8 010 LIFE INSURANCE 89 -15 675 HEALTH CARE-DIVERSIIED or t COMPOSITE ,RETAIL STORES DEPARTMENT SAVINGS LOAN COMPANIES -7 '29 11 -0 74. -8 36. 18 -3 547 COAL 74 -11 557 ,fROM Jan 1989 SiP INDUSTRY GROUP PRICE \ CHANGES PERCENTAGE CHANGES THRU Feb 14 1990 FROJ't Jan 3 1990 RANK 1; CHG. GROUP NAME RANK \ CHG 1 85.543 ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION 1 12 594 ,2 73.821 GOLD 3..-59 -994–flEAf,TM-'-GARE-JIII-5C 51 044 OIL & GAS DRILLING ,2 10 216 3.-…….a–l-Q 7.051 5 50 965 COJ'tPUTER SYSTEMS 5 2 298 6 6 645 OIL WELL EQUIPJ'tENT AND SERVICe 6 2 042 7 45.182 COJIIPUTER SOFTWARE , SERVICES 7 1. 7'2 8 44 714 OIL INTEGRATED DOMESTIC 8 1 051 9 43 125 MACHINERY-DIVERSIFIED 9 0.292 10 41 749 ELECTRONICS SEJ'tICONDUCTORS 10 0.097 11 41 073 OIL COJ'tPOSITE 11 -0 740 ' 12 37 781 OIL. INTEGRATED INTERNATIONAL 12 -1 739 13 36 916 EXCLUDING I.B.M 13 -2 183 14 36 009 REAL ESTATE INVESTJ'tENT TRUSTS 14 -3.125 15 35 578 CONGLOMERATES 15 -3.155 16 35 280 AUTOMOBILE 16 -3. 532 17 35 200 ELECTRONICSINSTRUJ'tENTATION 17 -3. 543 16 34 176 SAVINGS & LOAN COMPAN1ES 18 -3. 547 19 32 395 TOYS 19 -3.893 20 31 67 COMJ'tUNICATION EQUIP/MFRS 20 -4.167 21 31 286 CONTAINER METAL , GLASS 21 -4.228 22 31.062 EXCLUDING GEN MOTORS 22 -4.251 23 31 002 RAILROADS 30 390 INSURANCE BROKERS 25 28 978 PROPERTY-CASUALITY INSURANCE 26 28 621 MANUFACTURINGfOIV IND. ) Z7 28 1. CTRIC COMPANIES 23 -4.402 -. -4.455 25 650 26 661 –..Z7 758 28 27 530 MACHINE TOOLS 28 -5 029 29 26 516 PERSONAL LOANS 29 -5 173 30 26 128 CHEMICALS-DIV '30 -5 FROM Jan 1989 RANK \ CHG. 2 73.821 3 59 994 2—-10;390- as -1 543 86 -14 749 , 51 044 42 16 792 14 36 009 44 18.367 31 25.239 ..27 28.144 32 24 134 87 -13.787 -22.284 os 18.230 81 -8.589 86 -13.180 ,29 26 518 10 41.749 43.125 57 10.758 93 -17.726 35 20.622 72 0.000 15 35.578 61 5.226 ., ,47 17 824 9S -26.774 107 59 9 .214 The obvious observation gaineil by looking at the left-hand.table is that it is dominated by the energy and consumer goods sectors of the market.- Substantial percentage gains in groups related to food and oil were registered from 1999 to date, well above the Standard & Poor's 500 Average. However, a number of these groups. which have ranked in the top 30 in performance since January 1989. have dropped in rank when measured over the most recent six-week period. The right-hand table. while still favoring the energy sector, shows a number of interesting new names. These include computers. electronics, automobiles, and machine tools. Many of these groups were among the worst performers last year, but have, in the last six weeks. moved into the top third of the hst. This group rotation is important to monitor in order to identify internal changes occurring within the stock market. It is these changes that could give us supporting evidence in determining the short-term direction of the market, currently contained by the benchmark high of January 2 at 2810.15 and the recent low posted at 2542.24 on January 30. ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY. TABELL INC. Dow .Jones Industrials (12 00) S & P 500 (1200) Cumulative Index (2/15/90) RJS ebh 2654.50 335.48 4783.97 No statement or expression of opInion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or Indlreclly, an ofter orthe soliCitation of an after to buy or sell any secunty relerred to or menlloned The mailer IS presented merely for the convemence of the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our InformallOn to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any aCllO,n to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own InvestlgattDn and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a co(poralon and rls offICers or employees. may now have, or may later take, POSIIOOS or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any Iulure ISSue, and such poSitIOn may be dlfterentfrom any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delaheld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SEC asan Investment adViSor, may give adVIce to ItS westment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or m any other ISsue Further Informallan on any seCUrity menllOned herem IS available on request

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