\. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 – August 3, 1984 -Wml-;-wn-It-!t ha l–fi)n'A-fter flu b bin gaumm er ' rany-aneniptinI'Jlrnetlie- rrfllrRet'-w as a151 ….- to put on a spectacular show this week. including a 50-point. two-day rise and, most notably, record volume on Thursday and for the first hour Friday morning. Let us try to put this week's events in perspective. The recent fireworks can be viewed as one of seven short-term rallies which have taken place since the bull market began Start End Advance of Days on August 12, 1983. The rallies are 87i2T82 972I782 20.32 27 listed in the table at the right. 9130182 1113182 18.88 24 1124183 6116183 21.17 100 The first three mark the 2122184 3116184 4.42 17 start of each of the three component 6115184 713184 4.36 12 legs of the major-bull-market upswmg 7124184 812184 7.32 7 which, in total, took the DJIA from 776 in August, 1982 to 1248 in June, 1983. We have excluded the various rally attempts during the top- ping phase between that time to January, 1984, although they could, appropriately, have been included. The last three listed are the two aborted attempts at reversal in February and June. plus the current advance to date. How does the present rise stack up against its five predecessors First of all, it has already comfortably exceeded the total percentage advance chalked up on the two failed rally attempts. The table below sets out some other measures of upside momentum, the first three being figures for the first seven days of each advance, and the last four showing peak single-day statistics in the early stages. It will be noted that the statistics shown are measures of upside action exclusively. There was a time when measuring the depth of an oversold condition was an important part of a reversal test. This has e – –been—ress-true-recently-;'th,,–1as t full'SClrthrellirrg—-climllx-h-avirrg—uccurred9TI –,- ,ou. First Seven Da;)s Percent advance Upside volume as of total Total advancing stocks Peak Da;) Adv. stocks as of total Upside vol. as of total Vol. as of 25-day average ih)rt-term trading index 8112182 11. 88 67.62 7723 81. 04 95.75 231 .24 9130182 10.11 68.64 7098 74.27 87.16 194 .42 1124183 4.42 45.57 5750 60.78 77.78 112 .42 2122184 4.03 53.38 6005 67.17 80.12 110 .52 6115184 4.11 54.76 5738 54.08 72.97 143 .33 7124184 7.32 68.77 7183 73.56 87.90 203 .42 The numbers above are, it seems to us, self-explanaory. Based on most statistics, the advance seems to have equalled, or fallen just short of, the rallies which were the feature of August and October, 1982. Likewise, by most measures, it seems to have exceeded the other three rallies. This is not surprising. Indeed, it is just about what should have been expected. We outlined last week the fact that our preferred market scenario was to view weakness of 1984 to date as an intermediate-term correction within the framework of an ongoing bull market. If this week's action signals that that intermediate-term correction is over, one would expect the dynamics of the reversal to be less than those of the bull market's early stages, but greater than the failed rally attempts during the declining phase. This is precisely what took place. The question of whether our original scenario will turn out to be the correct one requires athe accumulation of further evidence. Part of our view has been the speculation that early1984 might turn out to be what is known, in technician's parlanceas- fulcrum base. consisting, as -it does, of two trading ranges, the first at 1140-1180, and the second, lower range at 1080-1140. The market rocketed out of that lower range this week. Normally, one would view the upper one as potential overhead supply. Therefore, if our thesis is correct, one would expect a move through the upper area without too much in the way of digestion. The Dow, indeed, did just that on Friday morning, reaching 1190 before pulling back. Ob- viously this breakout must be confirmed by further testing. If so, we will then be able to assess the upside prospects. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (\200 p.m.) S & P ComposIte (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (812184) 1185.29 160.98 1890.18 No statement or expressIOn of opInion or any other matter herern contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be directly or rndlrectly, an oller or the solicitation of an offer to buyor sen any security referred toor mentioned The mailer IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we behevelhe sources of our Inlorffiahon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof norol lhe statements made herern Any action to be taen by the subscrrber shoutd be based on hiS own rnveslgatln and rnformatlon Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc, as a corporation and ItS ollicers 01 employees, may now have, or may later take, POSitions or trades rn respect 10 any securrtles mentlonea In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be dl!ferent Irom any views nowor herea!terexpressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVISor, may glveadYlce to ItS Imestment adVisory and other customers Independently 01 any statements made lfl thiS or m any other Issue Further mformatlon on any securtty menl!oned herein IS available on request

1 f l ., …, -r '11'-'t1''. – ,' ..41 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC ' MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924,9660 – , , -' — . August 10, 1984 ' . , With a week having gone by since the second biennial August explosion, market com- mentators have had some time to sort things out and attempt to draw conclusions from what has taken place. Due note has been taken of the new volume records chalked up, largely, we suspect, because trading activity passed a round-figure barrier in exceeding 200 million shares. Volume can now be relegated to sub-headlines until it passes 300 million, an, event which may occur sooner rather than later. Our own impression is that the general reaction to the past fortnight's buying orgy has been, if anything, a trifle blase. Most writers seem agreed that the trsnsmogrification of the first week in August has improved the market outlook somewhat, and many now seem to be calling for new highs on the Dow, possibly to be reached before E;lection Day. Since, trans- lated into numbers, this particular prognostication calls for nothing more than a 4 rise over 21 months, it hardly qualifies for the fearless-forecast-of-the-year award. Implicit therein, however, is the assumption that the November-July weakness constituted an intermediate-term correction, and that the cycle bull market remains in effect, an assumption with which we heartily concur, having maintained it throughout the first half of 1984. What has elicited little comment, to date at least, is the fact that we may be entering a new and uncharted realm of stock-market behavior. In many ways, the action of last week was, with the single exception of its precursor of two years before, totally without precedent in stock-market history. Let us develop this thesis a bit further. What happened, of course, is that the market went up a lot. This by itself, should en- gender little excitement. Markets have gone up a lot in the past and will do so in the future. What makes the current instance unusual is the sharp rise combined with what the market had been doing prior to that rise. Thst was declining slowly and lethargically over the seven months from November 29, 1983. Sharp snapbscks after steep declines are s commonplace feature of market history. Upside explosions of last week's magnitude occurring after a period of dullness havs taken place only twice in 58 years. Let us document this a bit further. In the eight days from July 24 to August 3 the Dow hsd risen 10.6 to 1202.08. The last time it had been above that figure was February 2, 1984, and it required 119 trading days for it to get from that point to the July 24 low. We thus retraced, in eight days of trading, a 119-day decline. Expressing these two numbers as a ratio, dividing 119 by 8 produces 14.88, a figure that, with. a . single exception, has never occurred or even been approached since 1926. The exception, of course, was the period August 12-August 23, 1982 when, in a seven-day rise, the market erased a decline that con- sumed 169 days on the downside, producing a ratio of over. 24. Prior to that the highest fig- ure ever reached had been in the 6-7 range. We are dealing here, therefore, with a situation where the last two major upside turns have developed with Characteristics totally unshared by the 69 major and intermediate-term re- versals that preceeded them over 58 years of stock-market history. There are many possible explanations ae to why this phenomenon should be taking place as we enter'the 1980's. We have developed these explanations at length in the past, and it is our intention to develop them further in the near future. A subject which is even more appropriate for future discussion at length, it seems to us, is the implication of this sort of change in environment for investment strategy, especially those strategies bssed, in whole or in part, on technical analysis. A cornerstone of portfOlio strategy has always been that markets, in the broadest and most gen- eral sense will tend to repeat patterns that have occurred regularly in the past. When we come into possession of evidence that the market is suddenly not doing so — in s fairly crucial way — we hsve a situation deserving some fairly intensive analysis . AWTrs . ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) 1240.72 S P Composite (1200 p.m.) 168.10 Cumulative Index (8/9/84) 1969.60 NO statement 01' expresSion 01 opmion or flnyOther mailer herein contained IS or Is 10 be deemed 10 be directly or Indlrectty an oller or the soliCitation of an offer 10 buy or sell any security referred toor mentIOned The matter IS presented merely lor the convemence ollhe subscriber While we believe the sources of our mformatlOn to be relIable, we In no way represent or guarantee the aCCurac)' thereof nor olttle statements made herein Any achon to be taken by the subscriber Should be based on hiS own investigation and mformatlon Delafield, Harvey Tabell Inc, as a corporal Ion and liS oHIcers or employees, ma)' now have, Of may later lake, poSitions or trades 10 respect 10 any securities mentioned In thiS 01 any future Issue, and SUCh poslllon may be dillereni flomany views now 01 heleafler eKpressed mthlS or any other Issue Delaheld Harvey laooll Inc whiCh Is registered With the SEC as 81'\ Inlles1mentadvlsor may give advice 10 Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independenlly 01 an)' statements made In this 01 In lIny other Issue Further Information on any secuflly mentioned herem IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 924-9660 August 17. 1984 . ' -' We d.ocumened.,–last week .some of-Ah-similaFities–.!Lejween ….rQ!lL .!m early August) 1984 and mld-August. 1982 pmnting out that these two experiences -were, apparently-;- uniqtH-iTr fi1arkerl1i- — tory. It may be of interest to explore the similarities a bit further, and we attempt this in the following table. The left-hand two ootumns show the actual history of the closing Dow from August 9 to September 21. 1982. togmherwith some selected dates thereafter. The fi!(ure shown, however. is adjusted to make it comparable to today by multiplying it by 1. 39, the ratio of the July 24, 1984 low of 1086.57 to the August 12. 1982 low of 776.92. The comparable 1984 dates are shown to the right, aligned on the days prior to the respective takeoff ralhes. August 16, and July 31, shown as day zero in the table. For each day on which a new high was scored the percentage advance from the initial low is shown. On other days we show the correction from the previous high. 198 2 ———————————— Day Date Ad .. DJIA l ADV l CaRR ————1—9–8–4——————– Date DJIA X ADV X CORR -5 AUG 9 1982 1091.37 JUL 24 1984 1086.57 -4 AUG 10 1982 1089.90 JUL 25 1984 1096.95 -3 AUG 11 1982 1086.98 JUL 26 1984 1107.66 -2 AUG 12 1982 1086.57 JUL 27 1984 1114.62 -1 AUG 13 1982 1102.14 o AUG 16 1982 1108.26 2.00 JUL 30 1984 1109.98 JUL 31 1984 1115.28 2.64 1 AUG 17 1982 1162.54 6.99 AUG 1 1984 1134.61 4.42 2 AUG 18 1982 1160.01 -0.22 AUG 2 1984 1166.08 7.32 3 AUG 19 1982 1172.79 7.94 AUG 3 1984 1202.08 10.63 4 AUG 20 1982 1215.76 11.89 AUG 6 1984 1202.96 10.71 5 AUG 23 1982 1246.36 14.71 AUG 7 1984 1204.62 10.86 – – 6 ' -AUU-24-r98222TIi(l()c-,…..,..—–41.-B8c33MJG&cl-98J\–11-94 .-1-1- – —'–;.–,-01 —J 7 AUG 25 1982 1237.57 8 AUG 26 1982 1248.09 9 AUG 27 1982 1235.59 10 AUG 30 1982 1249.33 11 AUG 31 1982 1260.54 12 SEP 1 1982 1251.78 14.87 14.98 16.01 -0.70 -1.00 -0.69 AUG 9 1984 AUG 10 1984 AUG 13 1984 AUG 14 1984 AUG 15 1984 AUG 16 1984 1224.49 1218.09 1220.08 1214.11 1198.98 1209.14 12.69 -0,52 -0.36 -0.85 -2.08 -1.25 13 SEP 2 1982 1271.85 17.05 AUG 17 1984 14 SEP 3 1982 1293.85 19.08 AUG 20 1984 15 SEP 7 1982 1278.68 -1.17 AUG 21 1984 16 SEP 8 1982 1280.73 -1.01 AUG 22 1984 17 SEP 9 1982 1276.23 -1.36 AUG 23 1984 18 SEP 10 1982 1268.24 -1.98 AUG 24 1984 19 SEP 13 1982 1284.84 -0.70 AUG 27 1984 20 SEP 14 1982 1290.89 -0.23 AUG 28 1984 21 SEP 15 1982 1301.31 19.76 AUG 29 1984 25 SEP 21 1982 1307.36 20.32 SEP 5 1984 32 SEP 30 1982 1253.46 -4.12 SEP 14 1984 36 OCT 6 1982 1320.61 21.54 SEP 20 1984 56 NOV 3 1982 1490.15 37.14 OCT 18 1984 Both advances started following periods of moderate firmness. In 1982, the Dow was up 2 on August 16, from a low two days before. In 1984 it was ahead 2.64 from five days previous. The percentage advances after three days in 1982 and two days this year were similar, at around 7. Likewise t the 12.64 advance to August 9 was not all that different from the 1982 advance to August 23,in a two- day shorter timespan. Recently, some divergence has occurred. In 1982 the rise continued with almost no interruption to a peak comparable, in today's terms, to 1293. By contrast, this week. we started a correction which has the Dow down 2 so far and has lasted for five days. It is interesting, however. to note the similarity between this correction and that of September 8-14, 1982. Since we regard the current rally as a secondary one within the bull-market framework, it should not turn out to be as strong as the first, and, in that context, this week's weakness was therefore not surprising. It will also be highly unlikely for the current advance to duplicate 1982 results and wind up at 1490 on October lB. It will be interesting, however. to see to what extent the 1982 record is approached. AWT rs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p,m.) 1210.79 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 164.24 Cumulative Index (8/16/84) 1978.59 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No staternrmt or epresslon 01 opinion or any Other matter herein contained IS, or IS to bo deemed to be, dlreclly or Indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an oller to buy or sell any secunty referred to or mentioned Th'-J mailer IS presented merely forthe conenlence 01 the subScriber White we bellee the sources 01 our mformatlon to be reliable, we in no way represent or guarantee the accuracy theroot nor of the corpora/lOll and lis of/lcers statements made herem arernp/ayees, may now Any action to be taken have, or may tater take, by the subSCriber should be based on his own jnestlgatlon and mlo'malion Detafleld Harvey poSitions or trades in respeclto any Securities mentioned In thiS or any fUture Issue and such pToabsietlilonInmcyastJae dillerent flom any views now or heloafler epressed m thiS or any other Issue Delaflold Harvov, Tabell tnc which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor may gle adlce to Its Inestmenl adlsory and other customers Independently 01 any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any lIecurlty men\!oned herein Is available on reque1

I TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 \ ,',- – August 24, 1984 The featur!, of this week's trading was a 22-point upswlrrg -on Tuesday which brought the Dow' to 121)773, 'Ir new'Jligh- f6rUle move–wfiicl'-bege.niinate -JU1y-an-d9.lever F4labove1lrelow—'-II''. scored just four weeks before. The DJIA is now within 3.8 of its all-time high and the S & P 500 within 4.3 of that high, lending credence to the scenario of an ongoing bull market. In the midst of the week's excitement, there occured on Tuesday the release of New York Stock Exchange short interest figures for the settlement period ended August 15. The release was of more than passing interest for a number of reasons. First of all, total short interest was up some 11 million shares from the previous month, to a new record to Just under 213 million shares. Member firms report short interest as of settlement date, so that the figures included regular-way trading through August 8, by which point the Dow had already advanced well over 100 points from its July 24 low. It seems axiomatic, therefore, that short sellers remained skeptical of the rally at least to that pOint, a skepticism which augurs well for the continuance of the of the advance. This bullish interpretation remained in place following calculation of the short-interest ratio. This particular statistic is one of the more venerable of all technical indicators. It is arrived at by dividing the actual short interest figure by average daily volume for the trading period involved. Even with a sharp increase in the volume mean, to 103.5 millions shares, the ratio was above two, to be precise, 2.06. This level, combined with August's explosive stock-market rise, rekindled a debate which has been going on among market technicians for the past year or so. Historically, a short-interest ratio of over two has been one of the most accurately bullish of all technical indicators. Between 1945 and mid-1983, such a figure had been reached in only 20 months. In every single one of these 20 cases the market was higher, usually substantially so, one year later. Furthermore, the occurllmce of a ratio of over two called six of the nine major bull market bottoms since 1949. The past instances of a ratio above the two level are listed in the table below. Only the first occUlTence is shown, where strings of consecutive occutTence took ,place, and the Of such is listed. NO. OF SHORT FIRST DATE ———- -O-C-C-U-R. INTEREST ———– MAR 15 1949 7 1,498,000 DEC 15 1951 2 2,446,000 MAR 14 1958 4 4,768,000 OCT 15 1962 1 6,858,000 AUG 15 1966 2 12,610,000 SEP 15 1967 1 18,330,000 MAR 15 1968 1 19,920.000 JUL 15 1970 1 20,070,000 JUN 15 1982 1 99,050,000 SEP 15 1983 10 168,700,000 AVG DAILY SHORT INT DJIA DJIA DJIA VOLUME ———— -R-A-T-IO- (YR AGO) ——- -(C-U–R-R-E-NT)-(Y-R—L-A-T-E-R-) 714,435 2.10 167.62 176.02 207.46 1.134,800 2.16 224.70 265.48 285.99 1,913,000 2.49 473.93 453.04 607.88 3.176,670 2.16 703.15 589.69 742.19 5,949,050 8,265,450 9,204,500 2…1….2… 2 t 16 891.13 814.30 854 t 06 834.85 933.48 837.55 919.15 921.37 904.03 9.196,670 2.18 841.13 711.66 888.87 47,712,900 2.07 1011.99 801.27 1237.28 74,106,800 2.28 930.46 1215.04 'jI In the past year, however, as the last line of the table shows, a strange phenomenon has taken place. September 15, 1983 began a period in which the ratio was above two in every month but one through last month. While all of this was going on the market was topping out and turning down in the intermediate-term correction which began last November. Many analysts began to theorize that the short-interest ratio no longer worked, and that new factors (i. e., options and futures which could provide a hedge against short positions) made the old parameters no longer valid. We agree that there may be some validity to this line of reasoning. The problem is that we do not know what those new parameters might be. It is, meanwhile, just possible that the market rally has validated the old ones. As the table shows, the first recent occurrence of a 2 ratio was on September 15. 1983 with the Dow at 1215.04. It is above that level today, and it is therefore at least possible that it will be above it on September 14, three weeks from today. If this is the case, the historical interpretation of this index will be. at least temporarily, vindicated. Since the ratio has remained over two ever since September. 1983, the classical interpretation would also call for a consistently higher market over the next year. It will be interesting to see whether this historically highly accurate indicator can maintain the perfect record it has shown for the past 39 years. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (12 00 p. m.) Cumulative Index (8/23/84) 1232.10 167.42 2007.95 No statement Of e.preSSlon of Opinion or any other matter herein contained IS or 15 to be deemed to be directly Of Indirectly, an oller or the SOliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any secunty referred tOor mentioned The matter IS presenteo merely !arthe convenience of the subscflber While we believe the sources of our information to be reliable, we In no way represent orguaran\ce the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herem Any action 10 be taken by the subSCriber should be based on his own investigation and information Delafield Harvey labell Inc. as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later tae. poSItions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue. and such POSltlO! may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thIS Of any olheflssue Delaheld Harvey labell Inc whICh IS regIstered WIth the SECas an Investment adYlsor, may gIve advICe 10 ItS Investment adVisory and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herem IS avsllabteon request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 August 31. 1984 T.he .chartbelow .Iast -appearedin .this..Jetteralmostayearago .in. Septllm!er..l9,83.—.T.he…p.urpose of its appearance at that time was to 'draw' attention to the fact that. although the Dow had just posted a new high. that high had been confirmed by neither the daily or weekly breadth indicies shown with it on the chart. This divergence between the averages and the number of stocks advancing is historically one of the earhest warning signals of arrival at the mature stage and. ultimately. the peak of a bull market. DOW JONES INDUSTRIRL RVERRGE DRILr BRERDTH INDEX WEEKLr BRERDTH INDEX As time went on and obvious signs of loss of momentum began to appear in the Fall of 1983. the divergence began to be noticed by others. and. during the weak market of early 1984. its existence was widely heralded as denoting bear-market conditions. Less widely noted were the statistics we compiled at the time studying all past breadth divergences since 1951. We suggested that. in the past. such di- vergences usually signalled that most of a move. 73 on average. had been completed, but that the lead- time over the ultimate market top had ranged, since World War II, from 7 months to 30 months. with a 16-month average. We suggested, therefore. that it was a bit early to start worrying about divergence conditions as an indicator of the bull market's end. The chart is worth reprinting at this time. however, since it is now a year later. and the original divergence still exists on the daily index. with at least a potential divergence possible on the weekly in- dex which went on to new highs in January. The divergence is now 12 months old. bringing it within the range of lead times seen in the postwar period. although it must be remembered that the 1950's saw three divergences of two years or more. It seems appropriate. however. to take the divergence more seriously than was the case a year ago, since it fits in with our current market scenario. That scenario suggests that November, 1983- July. 1984 was a completed intermediate-term correction within the framework of a bull market which will proceed. shortly. to new highs. As we have noted. however. we do not expect those highs to be signi- ficantly different from the previous ones. and it is also unlikely. in light of recent market action. that the breadth divergence will be erased by new highs on the daiI y and weekly indicators. A year ago. we noted that breadth divergence signalled a market entering a mature phase. Twelve months later. that maturity has become old age. albeit. based on August action. a robust old age. That ageis. we think well worth keepmg in mind. ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1217.42 DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TAB ELL INC. S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 166.13 Cumulative Index (8/30/84) 2019.19 No statement or expression 01 Opinion Of any other mailer herem contained IS Of IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer or the sollcltauon 01 an offer to buy or sell any secunly referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely lor the convemence 01 the subSCriber While we believe the sources of our mimmation to be reliable, we m no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereol nor 01 the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Delafteld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corpora lion and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take poSitions or trades In respect to any securrtles mentioned In this or any tuture Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any views nowor heleafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield Harvey Tabetl Inc which IS registered Wllh the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 liS Investment adliisory and other customers mdependently of any statements made In thiS or In any olher Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 September 7, 1984 One of the,oldest.rationalesJor, the.anciel)tprBcctice of.C!,hartil)g.1he stock.markeLis, the theo- ry that areas of' potential future supply or demand manifest themselves in the past history of a given stock or index, Such areas tend to be signified on a typical chart by long, lateral trading ranges. Point-and-figure dlarts, where the length of these lateral trading ranges is determined by price activity rather than passage of time, often improve the accuracy of such analysis. With the market having quieted down a bit, examination of the point-and-figure configuration for the Dow, shown below, may perhaps be helpful. The graph shows each five-point fluctuation on the DJIA since early 1983, 1.300 I I.-SO I 1 I/So II I/()O 1075 There are four separate areas on the chart which are worthy of note, the being in the upper left-hand corner, between 1215 and 1290, representing the trading pattern of the second half of 1983, The general deterioration that accompanied this trading range at the time suggested it might constitute a potential top, This interpretation was confirmed by the precipitous downside breakout in early 1984 which reached 1120 in February. Following that low, the Dow was unable to make progress above the 1185 level, so that 1120-1185 became a second important trading range. That range was penetrated on the downside in early May. There was, however, some justification this time for believing that that range, unlike the earlier one, was not a true top. The index stopped declining at 1090 and held this level three times, forming a third range between there and 1135. It was this range that was penetrated on the up- side in last month's rally. The normal expectation at that point would have been that 1120-1185 would turn out to be an area of supply which would slow upside progress. Instead, the Dow moved through this area in a straight line. This suggested that the entire 1090-1185 area constituted a single pattern known, in technical jargon, as a fulcrum base. If this interpretation is the correct one, the 1120-1185 range should now constitute an area of support, since it obviously provided little in the way of overhead supply. A fourth range is now funning at a logical point, just under the original top. Currently this range is delimited by 1200 and 1245, and the market pulled away once again from the bottom of this range on Thursday. All this sets up some fairly important current parameters for the Dow. Ability to move ahead, above 1250, would suggest a further test of the overhead supply from last Fall's original top. Even- tual penetration of that supply, to a new alltime high, would be a final confirmation of the fulcrum- base hypothesis, and the upside price objective of that base, in the 1350-1400 area, would be established as valid. A downside breakout below 1200 would not necessarily destroy this pattern, but it would provide us with a test of whether the upper part of the 1185-1120 area really consti- hies the strong support that it theoretically should. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (9/6/84) 1210.80 165.81 2019.72 No statemnl Of expression of opinion or any other matter herein contamClIS. Of IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly. an oller or the soliCitation of an olfer to buyor sell any security referred to or mentioned The maHer IS presented merely lor the convenience of the subscllber While we betleve the sourCes 01 OUI Information 10 be reliable we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor ollhe statements made herem Any action 10 be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investlgalton and mlormatlon Delafield, Harvey, Tabel! Inc, as a corporatIOn and 1\5 officers or employees, may now have, or may later lale, poSI\!ons or trades In respect 10 any securities mentioned 10 Ihls or any future Issue, and such position may be different 110m any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield Harvey Tabell Inc whiCh IS registered With the SEC as an Investment advisor may give advice to Its Investment adVisory and olhel customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any securtty mentioned herem IS available on reQuest

-. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 September 14, 1984 .- –Five 'weeks-agoas -might-be-expected; we were examining ;-inthis-space,the stock-market-explosion which had just moved the Dow up some 140 points over the course of'a fortnight. In the course of that examination we made the suggestion that that rally constituted a sort of behavior almost totally without historical precedent, and we went on to document the fact that the August rallies of 1982 and 1984 could be said to be unique events in market history. The singularity of these two occurrences, we pointed out, arose not from the extent of the advances, but the fact that they had erupted suddenly out of periods of extreme market dullness, Sharp market rises in the past had tended to be preoeded by equally sharply declining markets, producing the familiar, to technicians, selling-climax effect. Here, in the early 1980's, we are being confronted, on the record of the last two major bottoms, with a stock-market pattern that has, quite literally, never before occurred. So far, at least, this radical change in behavior appears to apply only to bottoms and not to tops. Historically, the latter have been slow to form, accompanied by an extensive period of fairly noticable internal deterioration. The top which preceded the intermediate-term decline of the first half of 1984 began its formation in June, 1983 and continued,irrCludlng a series of marginal new highs in the various averages, through January of this year, a timespan of seven months. This sort of gradual deterioration preceding the sharp January-February break which comprised the bulk of the correction, has any number of essentially similar precursors in market history. One of the basic rules of the game, at least, has not, apparently changd. Why, then, the new shape of market bottoms It is, we think, possible to find a convincing rationale for this new configuration, Let us, first of all, set out some elementary hypotheses about the nature of stock-market participants in the mid-1980's. The first such hypothesis is that the market has come, more and more, to be an institution- – -allydominatedone..T.hus,theplay.ers whose.daily. decisionsaffectthecourse….oLpriceactionhave – I become, to a larger and larger degree, professional money managers. Such managers, partially in response to academic doubts concerning the value added by their profession, have come more and more to be judged on the basis of performance. (Such judgment, laudable in principle, may be overdone in application, but that is another subject.) It should also be noted that performance is generally measured vis-a-vis a stock-market index, such as the S & P 500. Given the orientation of large numbers of market participants, we can go on to some simple statistics on returns available in today's financial markets. 90-day Treasury Bills at the moment provide a return of just under 11. Long Governments, with the return partially locked in, yield around 12H, with premiums for corporate issues of similar length. The dividend yield on the S & P 500 is well under 5. With manager performance measured, conventionall)l on a total-return basis, there exists, it must be admitted, a strong incentive not to hold equities except — and here is the rub — when the market is going up. Performance, let us remember, tends to be judged on a basis of total return annualized. To take what is admittedly a ridiculous figure, that return for the period July 24, 1984 to August 21, 1984 was 372 on the Dow-Jones Industrial Average from capital appreciation alone. To cite a figure which may be somewhat more realistic, it was 24.6 from August 12, 1982 to last night's close. Next to these numbers senior-security returns pale in comparison. It is not, therefore, hard to envision fairly large numbers of portfolio managers who, despite a basic prediliction toward a defensive posture, simply cannot afford not to be participants in a market which has started upward. Such portfolio managers become buyers who are likely to behave very much as individual sellers did in days of yore, Those sellers were afraid of losing their savings. Today's buyer, endlessly in competition with the S & P, is afraid of losing his job. Neither fear is likely to produce rational behavior. To the extent that the above hypotheses are ,correct, we may appropriately expect more of the sort of upside behavior that characterized two of the last three Augusts. It may even become more ubiquitous, We may, indeed, even have seen a mini-example of this sort of thing in the behavior of the past two days. The contrary investor today, therefore, may be the one who chooses not to join this crowd and is wary of trying to practice too-finely-tuned marKet timing. . AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1235.42 S & P ComposIte (1200 p.m.) 169.27 Cumulative Index (9/13/84) 2039.29 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. No statement or f)ypresslon of opinion or any other matter herem contained 15 or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an offer Of the solicitation of an offer to buy orsell any security relerred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely lor Ihe convenience of the subscriber While we believe Ihe sources of our information to be reliable we in no Way represent or gutrantee the accuracy tllereol nor 01 the statements made herein Any tClion to be lah.en by the subscllber shOUld be based on hiS own Investlgahon and Informalton Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporahon and liS officers or cmployeos my now htve or may later lake, pOSitions or IradC's In respect to any Securities mentioned In thiS or tny future Issue, and such pOSition mty be dlfterent flam any views nowO! herealter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield Harvey Tabell Inc which IS regrstered with the SEC as an Inveslmenl adVisor, may give advice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made tn thiS Ol!fl any other Issue Further mformatlon on any secuflty mentioned herern IS available on request

r .' TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 September 21, 1984 Avid readers of this letter, who feel they scrutinize it sufficiently closely each week to be awareoLeycery.nuance of-our currentmarketopinion, are .herewith givenpermission to stopread- – – ing at this point. With the market having spent essentially a' dull' '';'eek, we intend, for the benefit of less-than-avid readers, once again to summarize that opinion and some of the threads of evi- dence that lead us to it. The opinion can be summarized very simply. We think the market is likely to go higher. However, we are reluctant to expect a great deal from it, either in terms of percentage advance from this level or in time to be spent advancing from here on out. The three principal hypotheses which lead us to the above conclusion are as follows 1. A major bull market began on August 12, 1982. 2. The initial momentum of that bull market began dissipating around Summer-Fall, 1983. 3. This in turn led to the bull market's first (and probably only) intermediate-term correction, which ended on July 24, 1984. Ergo Whatever -Jan rommlly be expected to remain for a typical bull market after the above events have taken place still lies ahead of us. Let us examine the above hypotheses and their conclusion in a bit more detail. The first, we think, is essentially unarguable. The second is almost as patently obvious. On an elementary level one need only compare a chart of the averages, post-Junlil-1983, with the action up to that point. On a more sophisticated level, breadth and volume indicators began a deterioration in mid- 1983 which was remarked at the time not only by us but by almost all of our technically oriented colleagues. The third hypothesis, even today, may be a bit more controversial. The downswing which carried the Dow from 128V.20 on November 29, 1983 to 1086.57 on July 24, 1984 was the largest cOl'recl-ion. in the upswing-to that -date .Nocorrection -prior-tl-that-can.-be-called-anything other- — – – – than minor in scope, the worst previous decline having been approximately 7 in extent and under three weeks in length. The problem arises in the taxonomy of the seven-month period ended last July. The week before it ended we filled this entire space (without in any sense predicting its actual conclusion) outlining our reasons for calling it an intermediate-term correction rather than a full-scale bear market. We think the vigor of the rebound which materialized in early August vali- dates that thesis, although the final confirmation will obviously not take place until the Dow attains or at least approaches a newall-time high, something we expect it to do. The extent to which this scenario — so far at least — is consistent with historical norms is almost uncanny. Major market cycles in this century have averaged 45 months in length, with 61 of their lifetime spent advancing. Exact conformity with this pattern would call for a low in May, 1986 and a high in December of this year. The average percentage advance for all cycles had been 72 versus a rise of 66 for this one so far. Initial intermediate-term corrections have tended to materialize just about as far into past bull markets as the downswing which began in November, 1983. The only slightly surprising factor about the recent decline, in historical terms, was its length and extent. It constituted the longest and deepest recent such correction, with the single exception of January-October, 1960, which slightly exceed it both in terms of length and percentage decline,. , The three hypotheses above fix today's market firmly within a cyclical framework, a bull market which has undergone a completed intermediate-term correction and is now in its final phase. An examination of the historical record tells us, within fairly narrow limits, what can be expected from such a phase. The minimal expectation is a test of the previous high. This was the case, for example, in 1957. The average expectation notes the fact that some 70 of the move was likely to have been over around the start of the loss-of-momentum phase, in other words at 1240 on the Dow last June. If the 464 points gained to that point were 70 of the total advance, the ultimate rise would be to roughly1439, a figure we regard as plausible if a bit optimistic. From a timing point of view one would expect, as noted above, to see the ultimate high oc- cur sometime around the end of the year. There is a fairly wide historical latitude here, however, and an extension well into 1985 would hardly be unprecedented. , One of the functions of markets is to create surprises, and it would hardly be unusual for the market, which has adhered amazingly to the projected scenario so far, to vary widely from it between now and its conclusion. That variance J however, could come in either ODe or two directions, the downside or the upside. Our assessment at the moment is that the risk of the latter variation, a market which moves ahead further than we now suspect, is somewhat greater. It is for this reason that we think the investor should await further development from the posture of a relatively fully invested position. ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) 1223.49 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. S & P Composite (12 00 p. m. ) 167.76 Cumulative Index (9/20/84) 2057.46 No statement or epres9lon of opinion or any other matter herem contamed IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an oller or the soliCitation of an offer to buyor sell any secunty relerred loor menlloned The matter IS presented merely forthe convenience of thesubscflber While we belleve the sources of our Information to be reliable, we m no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 lhe statements made herem Any action to be taken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Information Delalleld Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and Its ollicers or employees, may now have, or may later take, pOSlhons or trades In respect to any securities mentioned m thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereaitor epressod 10 thiS or any athOl Issue Delafield Harvey. Taboll Inc which IS registered With the SECas an Investment adVisor, maygwe aovlceto ItS Investment adVisory and other customers Independently 01 an statements made In thiS Olin any o'her Issue rmthet Inlorma\IOrI on any secunly mef'\lOneo herem IS available on teQues!

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 1– —–r-'—-r——————————septem-er28,98-4———–,—-,—I With the Dow still locked in another one of its trading ranges, we decided this week to reexamine the recent action of individual issues to see if we could produce some additional insight into the internal behavior of the markp.t over the past year. To this end, we screened the price action of 1,643 individual stocks, 1,150 on the New York Stock Exchange, 167 on the American Stock Exchange and 326 Over-TheCounter. We tabulated for each of these stocks (1) its 1983-early 1984 high, (2) its low to date following that high, and (3) the highest price reached subsequent to that low. This enabled us to compute, for each stock, its average 1983-1984 decline, its subsequent percentage advance and the average percentage of decline recovered. The results are shown in the first four columns of the table below, with comparable figures for three market averages in the right-hand three columns. Decine 1983-1984 Advance 1984 of Decline Recovered NYSE -37.10 39.22 76.87 Average Stock ASE OTC -48.18 -50.84 52.29 47.64 69.08 59.80 All -41.01 4,2.21 72.69 DJIA -15.59 14.10 76.34 Averages ASE OTC ComE' -24.84 -30.86 15.61 13.23 47.24 29.64 At first glance, some paradoxes are apparent. The first thing that the table shows is that the average stock declined, during 1983-1984, about twice as much as the average representing the exchange on which it is traded. The second apparent paradox lies in the average percent-of-decline recovered to date. The average NYSE stock has recovered about the same as the Dow, but the average recovery for American Stock Exchange and Over-The-Counter stocks is considerably better. These anomalies, however, can be resolved by further examination. The table at right shows the date on which Stocks Making 1984 Highs each of the stocks made its 1984 high. As can Date NYSE ASE OTC Total be seen,these.highs werewideIydisperse,do''ve'rcJuI)e,.1!!ll3 355 a seven-month period. When the averages began July 1983 158 70 -174 . ,599 39 46 24i to flatten in June, a good many stocks had already Aug. 1983 50 7 8 65 started down, and the market indices were held Sept. 1983 90 11 15 116 up by fewer and fewer stocks that were continuing Oct. 1983 108 9 16 133 their advance. Thus, the uJtjmate decline in the Nov. 1983 92 6 11 109 averages was rather small, despite the fact that, Dec. 1983 60 7 14 81 as the first table shows, the average individual 1984 237 18 42 297 stock, sometime during the 1983-1984 period, under- went a significant correction in excess of 40. The ultimate lows for the individual stocks were also dispersed over time, although not as widely. Although the actual low for all three averages took place in July, 1984, only 549 of the 1,643 stocks made their lows during that month. 929 issues had already made their lows prior to the averages bottoming in July, and 165 stocks actually made new lows following the end of July. The rolling nature of the entire readjustment, thus, helped produce a relatively small decline in the averages. The second apparent anomaly lies in the extent Recovery 100 or more 50 – 100 Less than 50 NYSE ASE OTC 259 34 50 450 41 87 441 92 189 Total 343 578 722 of the individual declines recovered. This is accounted for by the fact that a significant number of issues, mostly on the New York Stock Exchange, have recovered 100 or more of their losses and moved ahead to 1983-,/ 1984 peaks. This is shown in the table at left. However, that table also suggests the narrowing of leadership that has taken place on the late 1984 rally. With the averages not all that far from new peaks. only 343 issues. to date. have. themselves, scored new highs. Even more negatively, 722 of 1,643 issues, including a majority of American Stock Exhcange and Over-The-Counter stocks, have recovered less than 50 of their 19831984 losses, and their prospects for new highs during -the remaining span of the bull'market appear dim. '. '. – All of this seems to us normal for the mature stage of a bull market. which is where we think we currently find ourselves. As has been the case at comparable stages of past bull markets, a great many issues have probably already seen their bull-market peaks. Breadth of leadership has unquestionably narrowed from what It was a year ago but most likely is still wide enough to cause further, albeit selective, general market strength. AWTlt ANTHONY W. TABELL DEL,a.FIELD, HARVEY, T ABELL IN C. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (9/27/84) 1210.03 166.83 2055.17 NO sle!emc'Il 01 epresslon 01 opinion or any O!hr mallcr herein conlBlned IS or IS lobcdeemed to /e, dlrect/yor mdlrectly, an offeror the SOliCitation of an offerlo buY Of self any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely lor Ihe convemence of Ihe subscriber While we believe the sources Olou! mformatlon 10 berehable, we In no way represenl or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor ollhe statements made herein Any acllon 10 be tafen by Ihe subscT/ber should be based on hiS own Investlgallon and mtormatlon Delafield Harvey Tabefl tnc as a corporation ana Its officers or employees, may now have or may later lake, poSlllons or trades In respect to any SeCuT/lleS mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition my be dilleren/Irom any VHWS now or hcHaller expressed In IhlS Of any olher Issue Delalleld Harvey labell Inc wfTfCh 1 regIstered With the SEC as an investment adVisor, may give advice to ItS mvestment adVISOry and othel cuSlomers mdependently at any statements made m Ihls or m any other Issue Further mformallOnOn any secUT/ty menllonC! herein Is available on request

TABELL-S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 October 5, 1984 ''J . tr …. – – – – – The Dow-Jones Industrial Average was off 8.51 points to close at 1182.85 on Wednesday, post- ing the lowest closing level in over two months, since August 2, when the DJIA closed at 1166.08. Technically, from a short-term point of view, the penetration of the recent 1240-1190 trading area, in which the market had been locked for the past 41 trading days, indicates from point and figure analysis a possible correction to the 1100 area. However, this does seem to be an excessive projection at this time because of the internal rotational leadership of the current equity market, previously discussed in th,S letter, coupled with constructive support present under current levels of the DJIA. To properly put the current position of the stock market in perspective, it becomes helpful to again examine, briefly, the performance of the DJIA from August 12, 1982, the start of the major bull-market cycle. We know from hindsight that the market advanced from that point from a low of 776.92 to a high of 1287.20 on November 29, 1983. This represented an advance of 65.68 and was completed in a period of 329 trading days. This across-the-board advance was completed without experiencing in the process anything approaching a 10 decline. From that time, two sig- nificant intermediate-term movements have occurred to date. The market corrected 15.59 from its November. 1983 high to a low of 1086.57 on July 24 of this year. This was followed from that July low by a rally of 14.10 to a high of 1230.73 on August 21. To date, this entire cycle is now 543 days old. Since the high in the DJIA was reached in November, 1983, the bull market, as it has gotten older, has changed its behavior significantly. No longer is the bull market advancing at an average daily rate in excess of one-and-a-half points per day as it did in its initial phase. Instead, it has spent the last 200 plus days fluctuating in a series of narrow, flat trading ranges which are relatively long in duration with initial wide swings out of these ranges oversport periods oJ. .time. To!urt1er focus on this change, of the 214 ;-;tra;,d;- I–I ing days from the November. 1983 high to date, only 94 have- been advancirig days on the DtIA While the remaining 120 days have been declining days. Intermediate Swings Date 11/28/83 7/24/84 7/24/84 8/21/84 nJ1A 1287.20 1086.57 1086.57 1239.73 (1) Pct.Chg. -15.59 14.10 Trading. Swings Date 1/09/84 2/22/84 7/25/84 8/14/84 DJIA 1286.22 1134.21 1096.65 1214.11 ( 2) Pct.Chg. -11. 82 10.68 (2)/(1) Pct.Chg. 75.82 75.74 It is interesting to note from the above exhibit that both intermediate moves previously discussed also confirm this new phase. The intermediate decline and advance completed the majority of the ultimate move immediately after dramatically breaking out of a trading area. The initial decline took 32 trading days to complete before the DJIA posted two successive plus days. Using the same guidelines, the initial August advance was completed in just 14 days. Again ,in both cases, the declining and advancing moves of the initial trading swings represented over 75 of the entire intermediate swing. What this suggests from a short-term pOint of view, is that the DJIA having broken out of a trading range on the downside will, if it is to significantly correct itself, do so quickly. If not, it will return to the trading range, albeit widening the downside limits of the range, in which it has been contained since early August. From the longer term point of view, the recent action of the market has not been unexpected. As we have continued to note in past letters ad nauseam, the present market cycle is in a mature, aging stage. We can continue to project higher levels in the DJIA possibly carrying into the early part of next year. However, any general market strength will be reflected in a narrowing select- ive sector of the equity market. RJS rs ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (12-00 p.m.) CumulatIve Index (10/4/84) 1182.20 162.78 2018.41 NO statement or expresSion of opinion Or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed 10 be, directly or mdJTeclly. an oller Of IhesoliCJlalJQn 01 an oller 1o bUYOfseIJany sccvfJly re/eITed to or mentioned The matter Is presented merety for the convenience of Ihe subSCriber While we believe the sources of our information 10 be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thoreof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own investigation and mformallon Delafield Harvey Tabell Inc as a corporation and liS officers or employees, may now have, or may tater take, posItionS or trades m respe(t to any securities mentioned m thiS or any fulure Issue, nd such POSition my be different from any views nowor helealter expressed m thiS or any other Issue Oelafleld Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SECas an Investment adVisor, may give advice 10 ItS Investment advisory and other customers mdependenlly of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herem IS available on request