Viewing Month: February 1984

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 03, 1984

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 03, 1984

Tabell's Market Letter - February 03, 1984 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - February 03, 1984 page 2
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I ! TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 February 3, 1984 Having already, last week, broken the December 15, 1983 low of 1236.79, the Dow-Jones Industrial eI'agontjl1\1.ed.io…l)'0I'k. lower this week, closing on Thursday at 1213.87. – . . . – lenow becomes appiirerft tli.rt 'hie-'usnaf yearen(f rally 'bas7uhitscOurse'i.lbeit r\ot' a .Iong o n e – – recording a high on January 6, of 1286.64, While registering a gain of only 4.03. Since this recent' high a 5. 78 correction has been recorded to date. As readers of this leiter have been made aware, the inability of the market to rally from the December low by 10 or continue the rally into February / March has had long-term bearish, historical implications. As has been previously noted, in years when the December low has been broken, the subsequent trend has been downward two-thirds of the time. This action, however, for the first month of 1984, should not necessarily be cause for concern if viewed from whence we came, that is, August 12, 1982. Since that time the DJIA has gone from a low of 776.92 to a high of 1287.20 on November 29, 1983 or an increase of 65.68 in a period of 375 trading days. While the bull market can certainly be described as mature both in extent and duration, it does not, by hist6rical precedence, need to be over. In this current market environment what new areas of leadership might evolve The illustration on the reverse page shows the performance of the best and worst acting Standard & Poor's groups for the first four weeks in each of the last four years. The year-to-date results of these best and worst per- forming groups are also shown. An initial inspection enables us to draw some obvious observations. On an absolute basis invest- ing from the end of January to year-end in the ten best acting groups when the market has been up for the year (1980, 1982, and 1983) has indeed produced some remarkable results. However, in order to properly measure the performance of these best and worst acting S & P 1 l\jClH,1 loA ';'; groups it is, of course, necessary to measure the '' … p .00 uIN/LU3J GAl NhuSS groups' action to the stock market as a whole. 1();'7S Using the S & P 500 Index as a proxy for te same JA.N 3 11)) 11.5 … 4 5. Zj I time intervals reviewed, we find, on a relative … ., ;, J 1.;5.7. —-basis,tnvg4nteps-in-three-O.lf—-J.,-'C;6i'3O.j4;–3''1 the four years reviewed would have relatively out- c C 20 1;1' 122. 30 -l; n5 performed the S & P 500 Index, 1983 underperform- J j.\ .. 1 1'1,J i. .L 1 5. -, ' ing by the smallest of margins. The same positive .1. , 1,.; ''4!..'t relative performance was found in the ten worst JA' ….t J.Jtj i4i.4 0.2, groups in three of the four years. The major l C ., J , 0 , .; .. 7.003 exception, however,-being 1980 where the ten JJ,. oJ … JJ '64.;4 -0.30 worst groups underperformed the S & P 500 by a factor of five. Therefore. a strategy could have been developed by purchasing the ten best groups after the first month of each year, or by purchasing both the ten best and the ten worst groups for the same period in each of the last four years. This would have resulted in a relatively positive per- formance versus the S & P 500. X CHANGES FROM EC 2. 1983 NAHE PRICE OIU INTEGRATED DOMESTIC 3040.70 HOSPITAL MANAGEMENT COMPANIES 5'1.92 OIL COMPOSITE 285.80 SAVINGS , LOAN COMPANIES 35.33 NATURAL GAS PIPELINES !35.51 COAL BITUHINOUS 316.40 TELEPHONE (NEW) 99.46 DIU CRUDE PRODUCERS 732.00 FERTILIZERS 18.84 BAHI\S(NEW VOR' CITY) 65.41 10 llEST GROUF AVnAGE TO J(jN !S 1981 PF,ICE F.NI\ ; CHANGE 386.40 1 13.4136 60.39 2 9.9599 311.50 38.34 253.62 J 8.9923 8.5197 5 7.6897 339.50 6 7.3009 106. 16 780.60 20.06 7 6.7364 6.6393 9 6.4756 69.63 10 6.4516 8.21790 CONTAINER PAPER 444.50 415.30 .S -6.5692 COPPER 56.07 2.37 .6 -6.5989 COMMUNICATION EOUIP/HFF.S 39.72 36.92 .7 -7.09 .e RETAIL STORES COHOSITE 159.16 147.60 ——7.2631 BROII.ERAGE FIRMS 52.S! 48.57 .9 -7.5209 GENERAL HEKCHANOISE CHAINS 13.74 12.61 90 -8.2242 RETAIL STORES DEPARTMENT 342.50 314.30 91 -8.2336 TRUCHRS 19.25 174.63 92 -100100' TEXTILE APPAREl HFRS. 78.28 67.80 9J -13.3878 POLLUTION CONTROL 64.87 54.69 9. -15.6929 10 WOfoST GKOUP AVERf'lIOE -9.0604 If we were going to incorporate this same strategy for 1984 we can now identify above the ten best and worst groups for the first four weeks in January. It is interesting to note the concentration of the energy sector in the ten best groups and the representation of the retail/consumer area in the ten worst groups. It is very possible these ten best and worst groups could relatively outperform the market in 1984. RJS rs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (2/2/84) 1214.30 163.93 2015.76 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS. JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or e)rpresslon 01 opinion or any other matter herem contained IS or IS to be deemoo to be directly Of mdlrectiy, an offer or the solicltatlo'l of an offer to buyor sell any secunty referred to or mentIOned The matter IS presented merely for the conveOlence of the subscflber While we believe the sources of our mformatron to be reliable, we In noway represent or guar8ntee the accuracy thereof nor ot the statements made herem Any aCllon to be taken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporatIOn and liS officerS Or employees, may now have or may later take, poSitions or trades m respect to any secunhes mentioned In thiS or any future Issue and such pOSition may be dIfferent from any views now Of heleaftor eApressed In this Of any other Issue Delafreld, Harvey Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, maygwe advice to Its Inveslment adVISOry and othol customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In anyolher Issue Further mfOlmallon on any security menhoroed herein Is available on requesl .0— —–;– -. Z CHANGES FROM DEC 26 1979 NAME COPPER BRO!l.ERAGE FIRMS AEROSPACE METALS MISCELLANEOUS ALUMINUM GOLD MACHINE TOOLS OIU INTEGRATED DOMESTIC STEEL MULTI-LINE INSURANCE SOFT DRIN!l.S TOBACCO COSMETICS TEXTILE APPAREL MFRS. RETAIL STORES COMPOSITE GAMING COMPANIES GENERAL MERCHANDISE CHAINS PERSONAL LOANS AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY SAVINGS & LOAN COMPANIES PRICE 39.80 11 .42 138.t 5 76.17 120.43 172.30 106.00 264.60 39.40 17.86 TO JAN 23 1980 PRICE RANK 51.45 1 14.53 2 171.90 3 91.50 4 143.01 S 201.80 6 123.96 298.90 44.10 ,7 a 19.95 10 10 BEST GROUP AVERAGE CHANGE 29.2714 27.2329 24.43.00 20.1260 18.7495 1701213 16.9434 12.9630 11.9289 11.7021 TO DEC 31 PRICE 47.00 25.10 210.60 106.84 150.48 321.40 164.27 445.20 49.41 20.35 1980 CHANGE 18.0905 119.7900 52.4430 40.2652 24.9523 86.5351 54.9717 68.2540 25.4061 13.9418 19.04690 SO.46490 94.98 84.83 54.64 44.09 73.83 17.6-4 6.84 B6.73 78.64 28.49 92.58 82.66 53.05 42.64 70.93 16.68 6.34 79.45 71.71 2S.SS 10 WORST GROUP AVERAGE as -2.5269 96.73 1.8425 a6 -2.5581 107.95 27. 2545 a7 -2.9100 55.92 2.3426 .,aa -3.2887 49.52 12.3157 a9 -3.9279 68.72 -6.9213 90 -5.4422 12.83 -27.2676 -7.3099 5.65 -17.3977 .2 -9.3939 73.74 -14.9775 '3 -8.8123 -10.3194 79.20 0.7121 24.97 -12.3S52 -5;S4892 -3.44518 ; CHANGES FROM DEC 31 1980 ,NAME AIR TRANSPORT BEVERAGES BREWERS RESTAURANTS TRUCKERS TEXTILE APPAREL MFRS. CANADIAN OIL & GAS SHOES CHEMICALS AUTO PARTS-AFTER MARKET INVESTMENT COS.ROND FUNDS) AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY 9ROKERAGE FIRMS METALS MISCELLANEOUS OFFSHORE IRILLING SAVINGS & LOAN COMPANIES HOTEL/MOTEL AEf\OSPI\CE GOlli GAMING COMPANIES INVESTMEH COMPANIES — ….. – CHANGES FROM DEC 30 1981 NAME EXCLUDING GEN. MOTORS COMPUTER' BUS. EOUIP. LEISURE TIME ENTERTAINMENT SOAPS ELECTRONIC MAJOR COS. INVESTMENT COS.(BOND FUNDS) ELECTRONICS-INSTRUMENTATION GENERAL MERCHANDISE CHAINS ELECTRIC COMPANIES PRICE 40.97 38.74 33.23 83.88 49.52 22.48 60.31 61.55 14.81 7.26 TO JAN 28 1981 PRICE RANK 45.91 42.53 2 35.94 88.97 52.36 3 S 23.71 6 63.51 64.71 15.36 7 9 7.48 10 10 BEST GROUP AVERAGE X CHANGE 12.0576 9.7832 8olSS3 6.0682 5.7351 5.4715 5.3059 5.1340 3.7137 3.0303 TO DEC 30 1981 PRICE Z CHANGE 38.30 -6.5170 47.62 22.9220 41.83 25.8802 100.13 19.3729 41.16 -16.8821 21.73 -3.3363 65.48 8.5724 56012 -8.8221 15.47 4.4565 6.97 -3.995 6.44548 4.16521 79.20 25.10 106.84 215.35 24.97 74.07 210.60 321.40 12.83 72.34 70.75 22.18 94.14 189.68 21.94 64.49 181.50 274.50 10.87 60.87 10 WORST GROUP AVERAGE .s -10.6692 .6 -11.6335 a7 -11. 8869 aa -11.9201 .,a9 -12.1346 90 -12.9472 -13.8177 .2 -14.5924 .3 -15.2767 -15.8557 -13.07340 49.20 30.59 109.47 201.35 18.83 70.06 134.49 235.90 11.99 60.90 -37.8788 21.8725 2.4616 -6.5011 -24.5895 -5.4138 -36.1396 .-26.6024 -6.5472 -15.8142 -13.51520 PRICE 9.78 97.30 76.19 290.80 156.79 92.02 6.97 43.12 5.74 29.41 TO JAN 27 1982 PRICE RANK 10.73 1 102.50 2 79.21 300.30 161.24 94.35 7.08 43.59 5.80 3 5 7 ,a 29.67 10 10 BEST GROUP AVERAGE X CHANGE 9.7137 5.3'1-43 3.9638 3.3356 2.8382 2.5321 1.5782 1.0900 1.0453 0.8841 TO DEC 29 1982 PRICE X CHANGE 26.49 170.8590 146.10 50.1542 76.29 0.1313 281.60 -3.1637 223.69 42.6685 151.56 64.7033 8.47 21.5208 70.66 63.8683 10.47 82.4042 36.21 23.1214 3.23252 51.62670 FOREST PRODUCTS COAL BITUMINOUS RAILROAD EQUIPMENT INVESTMENT COMPANIES OIL INTEGRATED DOMESTIC TRUCKERS GOLD SAVINGS , LOAN COMPANIES OFFSHORE DRILLING CANADIAN OIL , GAS 19.76 395.20 78.08 60.90 341. 30 100.13 235.90 18.83 201.35 21.73 17.14 340.50 67.17 52.33 291. 50 85.12 195.40 15.17 162.03 17.38 10 WORST GROUP AVERAGE as -13.2591 a6 -13.8411 a7 -13.9728 .,aa -14.0723 a9 -14.5913 90 -14.9905 -1701683 .2 -19.4371 93 -19.5282 -20.0184 -16.08790 24.86 274.90 75.67 72.58 274.70 139.93 333.60 34.14 111.87 15.56 25.8097 -30.4403 -3.0866 19.1790 -19.5136 39.7483 41.4159 81.3064 -44.4400 -28.3939 8.15849 t CHANGES FROM DEC 29 1982 NAME MACHINE TOOLS GOLD ELECTRONICS (SEMICONDUCTORS/COMPON EXCLUDING I.EI.M METALS MISCELLANEOUS FERTILIZERS COPPER MACHINERY INDUSTRIAL/SPECIALTY OIL CRUDE PRODUCERS TRUCKERS —— PRICE 151.33 333.60 38.12 261.70 105.74 12.85 58.76 133.74 528.10 139.93 TO JAN 26 1983 PRICE RANK 173.50 1 375.90 2 42.18 285.50 114.81 3 S 13.93 6 63.43 7 144.05 568.60 150.10 a 10 10 BEST GROUP AVERAGE CHANGE 14.6501 12.6799 10.6506 9.0944 8.5776 8.4047 7.9476 7.7090 7.6690 7.2679 9.46507 TO DEC 2a 1983 PRICE CHANGE 205.63 35.8818 313.90 -5.9053 59.28 55.5089 300.80 14.9408 130.17 23.1038 18.84 46.6148 56.07 -4.5779 159.73 19.4332 732.00 38.6101 194.25 38.8194 26.24300 SHOES AUTOMOBILE HOSPITAL MANAGEMENT COMPANIES PUfiLISHING (NEWSPAPERS) AUTO PARTS-AFTER MARKET TIRES & RUltBER PROPERTY-CASUALITY INSURANCE HOME BUILDING PERSONAL LOANS SAVINGS I LOAN COMPANIES 106.99 78.36 62.71 57.10 22.65 222.15 170.76 48.34 95.93 34.14 98.92 72.41 57.71 52.50 20.74 201.68 154.41 42.22 82.37 !8.84 10 WORST GROUP AVERAGE as -7.5428 a6 -7.5932 a7 -7.9732 aa -8.0560 a9 -8.4327 .,'0 -9.2145 -9.5748 .2 -12.6603 .3 -1401353 94 -15.5243 -10.07070 112.12 101.42 54.92 64.72 23.79 210.41 183.17 47.77 126.41 35.33 4.7948 29.4283 -12.4223 13.3450 5.0331 -5.2847 7.2675 -1.1792 31.7732 3.4857 7.62114 – – —

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 10, 1984

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 10, 1984

Tabell's Market Letter - February 10, 1984 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - February 10, 1984 page 2
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r——-j———————————————————————————————— TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 February 10. 1984 , The stock market. as measured by the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, continued downard this week – closing ata.l!wof1l52 .7 on.Thurs'!!lY ,,,,This. sharp decline. oLappr9ximately 134p-oint–.fr,o,m .the. Janu;. ary 6th high of 1286.64 represents a 10.41 decline to date.- This corrctiorl'has occurrecl. in theshert time span of 25 trading days currently reflecting a relahvely sharp. oversold condition. One of the technical tools we have used to measure the long-term oversold condition of the market is the Short Term Trading Index (TRIN). This index is a correlation of the ratio of advances to declines to the ratio of advancing volume to declining volume. In other words, whether changes in the relationship of advances and declines are taking place faster or slower than changes in the general volume movement of the market. The ratio is computed as follows (advances/declines) /(advancing volume/declining volume). The chart on the reverse page shows a ten-day moving average of the Short Term Trading Index of the New York Stock Exchange from May. 1964 to date. As can be seen from the chart, the ten-day moving average tends to smooth the wild daily gyrations of the TRIN. Historically, when the ten-day average of the TRIN reaches a figure of 1. 5, indicated by the dotted line, a major buy signal is indi- cated. There have been five such signals since May, 1964. They occured on October, 1966, May, 1970, December, 1974, March, 1980, and August, 1982. Underlined in the exhibit below, the average gain from these five signals was in excess of 25 before a minor correction of 5 occurred. Obviously, the market in some of these instances. after a minor correction of at least 5. resumed its upward movement the most recent example, August, 1982 has advanced from a total of 65.68. OATES OF SINGLt DAY STTI ) 2.5 DATE STTI OJIA JUN 24 1965 2.82 857.76 OCT 3 1966 2.99 757.96 MAR 14 1968 3.16 830.91 MAY 4 1970 3.50 714.56 MAY 26 1970 2.64 631.16 I..,.-If….-'MSAERP 28 1974 27-1974 22.5841 854.35 -621.95 sua SEQUENT LOW DATE LENGTH CHG JUN 28 1965 2 2.00 OCT 7 1966 4 1.80 MAR 21 1966 5 0.70 MAY 26 1970 16 11.67 MAY 26 1970 0 0.00 MAT 29 1974 OCT 4 IJ74 42 5 6.90 6'.01- NEXT RALLY DJIA LENGTH tCHG 840.59 157 18.4 744.32 145 22.2 825.13 73 11.9 631.16 18 14.1 631.1, 18 14.1 795.37 8 8.1 584.56 – 6 n7z-,,,—I- NOV 18 1974 OEC 2 1974 AUG 19 1976 UCT 14 1976 OCT 31 1978 MAY 7 1979 OCT 9 1979 MAR 24 1980 OEC 8 1980 AUG 24 1981 JAN 5 1982 AU 4 1982 OCT 25 1982 FEB 8 1.84 4.25 2.74 2.59 2.06 2.55 3.06 3.17 3.93 2.86 3.67 4.10 2.69 4.45 2.78 624.92 603.0L 983.80 935.92 7.2.45 833.42 857.59 755.44 933.70 900.11 865.30 803.46 995.13 1156.30 OEC 6 1974 DEC 6 1.74 AUG 26 1976 NOV 10 1976 NOY 14 1978 JUN 1 1979 NOY 7 1979 MAR 27 1980 DEC 11 19O SEP 25 1981 MAR 8 1982 AUG 12 1982 NOY 23 1382 AYERAGE 13 4 5 18 10 18 21 3 3 23 43 6 21 13 7.57 4.22 2.38 1.27 0.91 1.47 7.10 0.71 2.70 8.45 8.07 3.30 0.42 3.88 577.60 577.6D 960.44 924.04 785.25 821.21 796.61 759.9 908.45 824.01 795.41 776.92 990.9 68 36.2 68 36.2 17 5.7 35 8.7 50 9.5 88 9.3 67 13.5 123 28.2 16 10.6 9 6., 43 9.3 58 37.1 9 6.7 53 16.1 On Wednesday, daily TRIN closed at 2.78. Although not as conclusive as the above statistics, in- spection of single days when climax selling is in eVIdence, i.e., a high TRIN. provides us with some interesting observations on the behavior of the market. Our colleague, Kenneth Tower developed the above exhbit which shows every instance since May, 1964 when the TRIN closed above 2.50 together with the performance of the market after these levels were reached. To date, there have been 21 such obser- vations. These are marked on the chart on the reverse page at the time they occurred on the DJIA. From these high TRIN levels the market reached a subsequent low. The date, length, and percentage change of these corrections are recorded. This is then followed by a rally measuring the length and ex- tenLof the market until a 5 correction occurs. What conclusions can be drawn from this exercise It becomes clear that the TRIN can reach high levels in both bull and bear markets. However, rallies from major-market lows .. like those mentioned earlier J tend to outperform the other signals. The average decline of the 20 observations after high, single-day TRIN occur is 3.88 occurring in an average time of 13 trading days. By applying these figures to our current market, the following scenario could be developed. Assuming we are in a correct- ion phase within a major bull market, it would be logical from the above evidence to expect a short-term rally from this oversold condition to begin shortly. ThIS rally should occur within two weeks and with- in 4 of current levels. Again, using the above exhibit, an average 16 rally could carry the averages from current levels probably into overhead supply in the high 1200 area or even into new high territory, completing the rally some time in early spring. It will be interesting, indeed, to see if and how this scenario develops. RJS rs ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (2/9/84) 1159.76 156.14 1937.69 No slatement or cxprSlon of Opinion or any other matter herem conlamed IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy Of sell any security releHed 10 or menhoned The maltcr IS presented merely for Inc convenience of the subSCriber White we believe the sources 01 our Informatton to be reliable, we 10 no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nOf of the statements made herem Any acllon 10 be tlken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabelt Inc. as a corporatIOn and Its officers or employees, may now have or may later take poSlllons or \fades Ifl respect to any secunt1es mentioned In thIS or any future Issue, and such pOSIUon may be different from any ViewS now or hereafter ewpressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey labelt Inc which IS registered With the SEC as an invostmentadvlsor, may give advice 10 lIS Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any slalf'ments made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request ,,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 17, 1984

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 17, 1984

Tabell's Market Letter - February 17, 1984
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— TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 , MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 924-9660 February 17, 1984 Years ago Lyndon Johnson used to ask if there was such a thing as a one-armed economist be….. – 'cause- he' cold never-ask' a' quest-ion-con;l!;'r!,lngAheconomy withouta .replyincludip gthe .pl1r!!s'm…. the other hand. Recently, market technicians seem to be guilty of the 'same -type -of 'response -when — – — asked to comment on the current condition of the stock market. In order not to be guilty of such an accusation, it is perhaps worthwhile stepping back and trying to reassess the longer-term picture of the stock market. The chart below attempts to do this. It shows our interpretation of what constitute the major swings in the S & P 500 from June, 1949 to date. It is drawn to scale both hOrizontally and vertically with the vertical scale being logarithmic so that equal percentage charges show up as equal vertical distances. The horizontal scale is based on trading days and covers some 8805 days ending at the recent February 13 closing low. \II, 1953 MAJOR MARKET 5WfNGS – 5&P sao 1177 OATS JUNE 19119 – DATE 1080 DRlS 1101 DRlS The length of each completed cycle in days is shown at the bottom of the chart, the cycles being measured from low to low. The consistent length of the swings to date is quite interesting and explains the popular, if not quite exact, concept of the four-year cycle, there being approximately 1020 trading days in a four-year period. Most analysts would agree, we think, with the interpretations shown on the chart through 1982. For the most recent period, not surprisingly, all the evidence is not yet available. We have chosen the date August 12, 1982 as the end of a completed cycle, 1122 trading days in , length. 0 This is somewhat longer than the others but not out of'line when contrasted with the experience – of the entire century. If our interpretation is correct, the new major cycle which began on August 12, 1982 is now only 381 trading days old. As the chart shows, this is barely over one-third of its expect- ed length of 1053 days based on the average of all the completed cycles shown. To our mind, the crucial issue is interpreting the cycle which we date as beginning less than two years ago. As the chart quite clearly shows, the four cycles through 1966 spent the bulk of their time in advancing phases. The four completed cycles since have tended to peak around the middle of their term. If the current cycle follows the pattern of those four recent ones, an imminent or even past peak is a logical expectation. If, on the other hand, it conforms to the earlier cycles and spends the bulk of its life in an advancing phase, a great deal more room lXmn. on the upside. We, therefore, intend to try to dissect this cycle further next week. RJSrs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) 1159.55 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 156.26 Cumulative Index (2/16/84) 1928.47 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC. No statement or expression of opinion or any other matler herein conlalned IS or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly an oller Or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell an secunly referred 10 or menlloned The mailer IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we beheve fhe sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof norof tM statements made herem Any action to be taken bytne sUOscnbershould be based on tliS own Investlga/ion and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabel( Inc, a; a Corporation and Its officers or employees may now have 01 may later take, poSitrons or trades In respect to any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any luture Issue, and such posItion may be dlllerent from any Iews nOwor heleafter e)'pressed In this or any other Issue Delafield, Harve, Ta1I tnc which IS regIstered With the SEC as an mvestmen! adVisor, may glveadvrce to lIS Investment adVISOry and other customers Independenlly ot any statements made In thiS or m any other Issue Further mformalion on any security mentioned herem IS avaltable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 24, 1984

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 24, 1984

Tabell's Market Letter - February 24, 1984
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 r— February 24, 1984 In this space last week, we examined the record of eight major stock-market cycles from June, 1949 to date and attempted to justify the contention that a new cycle did, in fact, begin on August 12, – – 198-2.-T-he–purpoe–Ofhis-week!8 ..Jetter .. willbe–toexamine .. ourinterpr..etation…oJ.these-4-psteight.Lcycles……–. -in greater detail relative to the new emerging cycle which we feel began'a year' and one-half ago. The chart below shows the recent cycle with the major component swings in the S & P 500 from August 12. 1982 to date. Using a 10 filter, the high and low points are drawn to a uniform horizontal scale. The other data on the chart attempts to place in perspective the present cycle compared to the previous eight cycles discussed, The horizontal lines drawn through the upper part of the chart shows the length in trading days in each of the previous eight cycles. ClCLE PERIOD LOW-HIGH RDVRNCE PERK Cfelt DRIE JUN 1949-SEP 1953 5EP 1953-0CT 1957 OCT 1957-JUN 1962 JUN I962-0CT 1966 OCT 1966-MRr 1970 MAr 1970-0CT 1974 OCT 1974-HAR 1978 MRR 1978-RUG 1982 196.751 JRN 1953 1119.021 AUG 1956 186.351 OEC 1961 179.781 , FE8 1966 148.051 NOV 1968 173.531 , JAN 1973 173.141 , 5EP 1976 161.701 NOV 1980 ..1.Il 172.65 OCT 1 1983 ..l2O. ..lSO. I- .571 — …l.'Ill ..l3ll ..l2O. — – 1 .571 F.EB 198Y – 15268 – — – -SEM MRR lIh OCT 1966 OCT JUN 1962 AUG 19B2.. ..1.lll AU 1982 .42 .J!lL MRr 19.Z(L OCT 1!l1l1. A comparison of the length of these lines to the current cycle obviously shows that each cycle has lasted a considerably longer period of time. Even were the present cycle to duplicate the short lengths of the 1966-70 or 1974-78 periods, there could still be well over two years remaining in the new cycle. Cycles are measured from low point to low point and a key question is whether the high of October 10, 1983 constituted the peak for the current cycle. The relative times of the previous cycle peaks again drawn to scale on the chart, are indicated by date and shown by the vertical tick marks on each of the cycle lengths. Once more, it becomes apparent from the evidence presented in terms of relative length of time from cycle low to cycle peak that a possible further high could still be achieved. However, also shown on each cycle length is the percentage increase from cycle low to cycle peak. The recent percentage increase of the S & P 500 from a cycle low to cycle peak is 68.57. This increase, although low in terms of the average advance of approximately 80 for the eight cycles e- has, -in fact, exceeded two previous periods;- 1966-70 and 1978-82.. – The market is at a critical stage and there are important questions to be resolved. Because of the short length of time from August. 1982 to date, cycle analysis at this time would describe the current decline in the market as an intermediate-term correction in an ongoing bull market. Can we pinpoint the level of the next low as a normal downward phase of a typical four-year stock-rnarket cycle To date, the decline (11.57) has not approached relative levels of previous lows based on percentage declines from their previous respective highs. These comparable figures are indicated on the lower right-hand side of the above chart. We know the market is oversold on a short-term basis and conceivably could be near or at an effective low. Can a subsequent rally carryon to new peaks and thus represent a continuation of the cycle The next few weeks should give us a clue to the above questions. Dow-Jones Irrdustrials (1200 p.m.) 1144.05 S 8; P Composite (12'00 p.m.) 155.19 Cumulative Index (2/23/84) 1896.26 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statemont or expression of otunlon or any olher mailer herein conlalned IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be directly or Inchrectly, an oller Of the sohCltalton of an ofter to buyor soli any secunty rctened to 01 montlOned The matter IS presented merely tOI the convenlenceot thesuhscnber While we beheve the sources 01 our informatIOn to be reliable, we In no way represent Of guarantee the accuracy thereot nor of the statements made herem Any action to be taken by the Subscllber should be based on hiS own mvest'gal,on and mformallon Dela/leld Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporatIOn and 1\5 ollicers or employees, may now have, or may lalertake poSitions or trades In respect 10 any secullltcs mentioned In thiS or any tUlure Issue, and such pOslt1On may be dillerent from any views now or helealte! expressed InthlS or any other Issue OelaftCtd Harvey, Taban Inc which IS reglsteredwlh the SEC as an Investmenl adVisor may give advice to Its mll(lSlment adVISOry and other customers Independently 01 any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any secullty mentioned herein IS avallabte on reQuest -!

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