Viewing Month: June 1982

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 04, 1982

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 04, 1982

Tabell's Market Letter - June 04, 1982
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE — -.- – June 4, 1982 Readers of this letter will note that a certain optimistic tone has been creeping in to some of its pronouncements. a tone which may not have been —-1.incldeh('Wr!'!,t neiidnphon of-th,S''nfOrep'Osifi'V'eStance, present. fIle- siOCl smaayr.JsHixome goannt-htOsinoaveg-ao.u;;e;A;;l-m;';o;ss;t;ocuo— …. east, and has duly moved from a closing high of 869.20 on the Dow in early May to a low under 815 this week. Despite the recent desultory action, our perception remruns that the stock market now finds itself in a better technICal posItion than was the case, for example, last September. We are not attempting here to indulge in an exercise in masochism, and we are fully aware of the highly dIS- quieting nature of the market's short-term behavior. Indeed. it is demonstrating at the moment what is, traditionally. the worst sort of technICal action — declIning on sharply reduced volume. It is most assuredly not our intention to forecast an immedIate cessation of this decline. The ques- tion is how one should treat the prospect of lower stock prices, and it is our feeling that, more than at any time in the past nine months, it should be regarded as presenting a potential buying opportumty. -. Our perception is that, overall, the market now finds itself In the process of a base forma- tion with rotating group leadership. The nature of thIS process can be, at least partially, described by the chart below, which shows the S & P 500 and what we call our Group ExpanSIon Index. GROUP EXPANSION INDEX , — , L- The index is calculated by taking, for each of llll S & P industrial groups, the difference betweenits current price and its 52-week lowandexpressingthis as a'percentage,of its 52-week range. For each group, then, we have a figure between 0 and 100. The average is the Group Ex- pansion Index. Like a breadth index! it is useful at tops tending, as the chart shows, for example, in 1979-80 and 1980-81, to lead declines in the market. The Expansion Index, also, we, think, gives a true picture of what has been taking place since last September. It will be noted that its trend SInce last September has been essentially flat, and its performance has been at least marginally better than that of major stock -market indicators. Its lows in September and March were almost equal, and it moved to a new high around the December figure in early May, despite the fact that the averages did not approach this level. It currently remains well above its March low, while the Dow and the S & P are fairly close to new bottoms. Examination of the components also shows that fewer groups are in the lowest decile of their 52-week range than was the case either in March or September. We think. in other words. that the expansion index suggests our concept of an ongOing base formation, and that the prospect of near-term lower prices should be viewed in the context of this process. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) 811. 93 S & P Composite (12 00 p.m.) 111.11 – ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL Cumulative Index (6/3/82) 1101. 61 No statement or expreulon of opmlOn or any other matter herem contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be. dlredly or Indirectly, on offer or the !Oltcltollor of on offer to buy or sell any seCUfily referred 10 or mentioned The moiler IS presented merely for Ihe convenumCf of Ihe subscriber While we believe the sources of our mforma- flO to be relloble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the stalefT'ents mude herein Any adlon 10 be laken by Ihe subscnber should be based on hiS own investigation and Informallon Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, ,,sltlons or trades In respect to any securities menltoned In thiS or any future Issue, ond such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In ' t or any olher Issue Janney Monlgomery Scott. Inc, whICh IS registered Wllh the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its mvestmenl adVisory and otner C\J3'flIers Independently of any stotements mode In thiS or In ony other Issue Further lI'Iformatlon on any seoJrlty mentioned herein IS aycliloble on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 11, 1982

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 11, 1982

Tabell's Market Letter - June 11, 1982
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY OBS40 DIYISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANOE It is perhaps appropriate at this stage, with the Dow between 795 and 800 (as we write this on Thursday around 3 p. m.), to deliver a short lecture on elementary technical analysis. That statement, on reflection, is a bit presumptuous since, as its practitioners are fond of pointing out, such analysis is, largely, an art rather than a science, and we, therefore, have no right to constitute ourselves as the definitive word on the subject. What we will discuss, then, is technical analysis as it is practiced in this quarter. One of the subjects with which technical work concerns itself is that of breakouts, and we, indeed, spend a good deal of time tracking these phenomena. Currently, the Dow is (again, at this writing) flirting with breaking its March 8 closing low of 795.47, having closed on Wednesday exactly .10 points above that figure. This breakout, if it takes place, will be widely heralded as constituting something decisive. The resultant puffery will be approximately akin to the flap which has occurred in recent days about the breaking of the 800 support level, 800 being a figure whose entire technical significance consists of the fact that it ends in two zeros. It is similarly safe to predict that the next time the Dow gets to 1000 for the umpteenth time, and of course it, some day, will, there will emerge an even greater hoo-hah, since 1000 ends in three zeros. Such are the wonders of financial commentary. What, then, is really going on here As we all know, the stock market, as measured by most averages, has essentially held in a trading range which now goes all the way back to last September. The high for that range was achieved in December of last year at 892.69 and until 1—t-t-hia–Mal'ch-it6-low-haefined.-by4e…geptember-25closin;;figuIe of 824–01'Back-thi-o—-II—I Spring, we experienced a similar downside breakout which brought the Dow to the March 8 low mentioned above, thirty whole points below its September figure, all accompanied by the same predictions of the end of the world which will undoubtedly emerge if we now break below 795. Our own view of the limitations of technical analysis and indeed any other sort of analysis, is that those limitations prevent us from being so confident to offer a prediction as to precisely what number will be reached on the downside or on what day the averages will reverse themselves and turn upward, either on a short, intermediate, or long-term basis. This difficulty is further compounded by the fact that market averages (and this criticism applies to the whole repertory, not just one single average) have, in recent years, become less and less useful as a frame of reference for describing the investment environment. As recently as 1976-1978, the averages managed to stage a totally conventional bear market in which a major subset of stocks totally failed to participate. Indeed, this subset, consisting largely of speculative issues which, history told us, shouHl have been bear-market leaders, actually moved up — directly counter to the prevailing downtrend. Recent diversity has been slightly less distinctive, but we have, nonetheless, since last Fall, witnessed a market climate in which individual stocks have posted major upside breakouts during period when overall action was just about as dull as conceivably could be imagined. Without getting tied down, then, to a short-range prediction, we think it is possible to make a couple of statements. First of all, we think that the low for the bear market which began in November, 1980 – April, 1981 is relatively near at hand, should be scored no later than this Fall and very possibly much earlier, conceivably this month. Secondly, we do not think that that low, especially in, tlIl! of sensibly .managod Jnestment. portfolios, is like!y t-2e Sb.tantively different from pnce levels currently prevruling. What IS, of course, absent IS any eVIdence of an imminent reversal, and here, again, uncertainty rears its ugly head, as we are aware of no way of telling in advance just when such evidence will present itself. We will thus confine ourselves to the two statements above which suggest that today's price level, when, sometime in the future. it is viewed in retrospect. will prove to have been a relatively attractive one. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 809.55 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 110.98 Cumulative Index (6/10/82 1075.48 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY, TABELL No stotement or expression of opinion or any other molter hercm contamed IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be. directly or indirectly, on offer or the sollcltotlon of an offer to buy or sell any sCC\lrlty referred 10 Of mentioned The mall!!r IS presenled merely for the convenienCE of the subcrlber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of Ihe statements mude herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Inve5llgotlon and Information Janney Montgomery SCali, Inc, as a corporation, and lIs officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, positions or trodes In respect to any securities menlloned In thiS or any future luue, and such POSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on IIlvestmenl adVisor, may give adv,ce to Its Inveslment adVisory and other customers Independently of any statements mode III thiS or In any other U5ue Further mformatlon on any security menhaned herein IS available all request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 18, 1982

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 18, 1982

Tabell's Market Letter - June 18, 1982
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY OBS40 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YOAK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( EXCHANGE – . . . .J.llnrJ8…..1982…..,…-.- I , We speculated 'last week on the possible furor 'which might emerge were-theDow to post a new low below that of March 8. On Thursday the event duly occurred, with a close of 791. 48, some four points below the March figure, being recorded. As we noted a week ago, we doubt that this event possesses transcendent significance, but, paradoxically, it does make the task of the market technician somewhat easier. We can now date the 1981-1982 bear market as having extended at least through June 17, and we can begin to watch for those events which should normally accompany the posting of a major low. Such lows have, in the past, bee,n accompanied by the registration of what may be called an extreme oversold condition, Numerous measurements may identify the existence of such a condition, and the table below shows the extreme values reached by four of these measurements during ten test periods in the past. These test periods include every major cycle low since 1946. Each is three months long, ending ten days following the recording of the cycle low. For each indicator the actual date on which the extreme value was reached is given. The four indicators chosen are as follows 1. The lO-Day Advance-Decline Oscillator, This is simply a 10-day total of the difference between advancing and declining stocks. In the table, previous values are adjusted to make them comparable to the number of issues traded today. 2, The lO-Day Percentage Change Oscillator, This is a simple measurement of the percentage move over a ten-day period lor the Dow. 3, The 25-Day Volume Ratio This indicator measures the ratio of volume on a given day to a 25-day moving average. Most oversold periods tend to feature at least one extreme high-volume day. 4. The 10-Day Avrg of CloslnK. Fires for Short-Term Tradin Index This is the well- Sta rt End rate VallJe late Valtje Date Value Date Value JUL 9 46 MAR 13 49 JUN 14 53 JUL 22 57 MAR 26 62 JUL 7 66 FEB 26 70 SEP 6 74 NOV 28 77 MAR 17 82 OCT 9 46 JUN 13 49 SEP 14 53 OCT 22 57 JUN 26 62 OCT 7 66 MAY 26 70 DEC 6 74 FEB 28 78 JUN 17 82 REP 10 40 JUN 6 49 AUG 31 53 OCT 21 57 MAY 29 62 AUG 29 66 MAY 26 70 SEP 16 74 JAN 16 78 JUN 9 82 -6613 -5135 -5841 -5777 -7202 -8211 -7321 -4494 -4477 -3907 SEP 10 46 JUN 13 49 AUG 31 53 OCT 22 57 MAY 28 62 AUG 29 66 MAY 26 70 OCT 4 74 JAN 16 78 JUN 9 82 -15.07 SEP 4 46 -5.79 MAR 29 49 -5.02 SEP 15 53 -6.83 OCT 11 57 -10.72 MAY 29 62 -8.12 AUG 30 66 -10.42 MAR 25 70 -12.85 OCT 10 74 -7.15 MAR 10 78 -4.67' JUN 11 82 3.19 2.46 2.25 2.08 3.19 1.65 1.63 1.78 1.37 lo38 OCT 11 66 MAY 5 70 OCT 3 74 JAN 16 78 MAY 28 82 161 171 176 131 139 The figures speak for themselves without the necessity for a good deal of comment. In almost all cases, the extreme values for the four measurements recorded so far have failed to approach those values typically associated with major lows in the past. Even relatively soft bottoms, 1978 and 1949 are typical examples, have tended to produce somewhat more deeply oversold conditions than the present market has registered to date. Indeed, the low posted last September, one which has now been exceeded by a moderately significant amount, produced more deeply depressed conditions than have been scored in the present instance, On the other hand, we are not that far away from registering those values which one – would-normally associate' with a bear'marKet's end, -As we'have stated in the past, 'we feel it would be more bullish for a deeply oversold condition typified by the sorts of measurements shown in the table to appear sooner rather than later. The appearance of such conditions in the next few weeks might suggest the possibility of a low's being posted now rather than deferred until, possibly, in the Fall. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 788. 8i ' S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 107.29 Cumulative Index (6/17/82) 1086.12 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No slolement or expression of opInIon (lr any other matter hereIn contOlned IS, or I to be deemed to be, directly or IndIrectly, on offer or the solICItatIon of on offer to buy or sell any secunty referred to or mentioned The matter tS presented merely for the conventence af the subscrtber Whtle we belteve the sources of our Informahan 10 be reliable, we in no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements rflLde herein Any octton to be tolren by Ihe subscrtber should be based on his aNn mvestigallon and Information Janney Montgomery Scolt, tnc , OS a corporaHon, and ItS officers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, pOSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentIoned In thIS or any future ISSUe, and such pOSItIOn may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thIS or any other tSSUe Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whtch tS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVIsor, may give advtce to us tnvestment odvlsory and olhet customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or to ony other Issue Further infOrmation on ony securtly menttoned herem '5 aVailable on request .;;;

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 25, 1982

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 25, 1982

Tabell's Market Letter - June 25, 1982
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANQE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANQE -4 – June 25. 1982 There are many sorts of measurements which can be used to identify a sold-outll market – – one which. after a decline. finds itself in a long-term buymg range. Technicians tend to focus on those conditions which generally manifest themselves at times when the stock-market world seems to be ……..lng-abOii't-;'lis7't7-e.-.-theltihd..,ofsellinificlimaxpnenomenon- wliose aBsence we haveoeen n-otirtg'lh tclollliaSps-'—–I–t space for some SlX months, most recently last week. There is. however, another means by which an oversold market can be measured. It can be defined as a market which, although it may not be falling resoundingly. simply refuses to go up over an extended period of time. By this standard the present market eminently qualifIes. It posted a low in September, 1981, at a figure not too different from today's levels. and ever smce. with the exceptIon of two abortive rallies peaking m December and May. it has stubbornly refused to move up at all. Can we quantIfy this The sImplest way is to translate the Dow's daily close into a percentile of its range for some period — say the classic 200 days. This is done on the chart below. in which the shaded areas below the line represent periods when the Dow was in the bottom 45 of its 200-day range, while the areas above the line show periods when it was in the upper 55 of that range. 15 LEVEL WITHIN 200 DRY RRNGE There' have been only, ten instances since 1946. numbered, on the chart -below …. when the Dow' per- . centile remained below the 45 figure for a protracted period — a protracted period in this case being defined as 100 trading days or longer. Nine of these periods correspond with the nme major-cycle low points recorded since 1946. (The exception admittedly is the 1973 bear-market rally.) We currently find ourselves in the 11th such period in the past 40 years and it is, interestingly enough, the third longest on record. The Dow percentile first broke below 45 on July 2. 1981 and has not been above it since. remaining there for 249 trading days. Two past periods are longer — June 1969-August 1970 (305 days) and March 1977-April 1978 (278 days). However. it should be noted that. once we were 249 days into each of these periods, the market was. in both cases. past its low. By definition, of course. it was well past its low in all of the other, shorter instances. Now it must be emphasized that measurements of this type tend to identify rather than predict. Unlike the classic selling climax measurements referred to above, they tend to identIfy general areas from which the market has rallied in the past, rather than pinpointing specific turning points which suggest that an effective low has been posted. There IS. in other words. in this analysis nothing to suggest a specific bottom or the imminence of a rally. It nonetheless appears obvious that the market's refusal to rise significantly over the past year is a unique phenomenon. and that phenomenon has been umformly characteristic of major-cycle lows in the past. ANTHONY W. TABELL AW'I' .P. Dill. AFE'oI,….j;TA.iIlI.lIl'I.;JI.——– No slalement or ex.preulon of opinion or ony other mailer herem conillned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlreclly or indirectly, on offer or the solicltollon of on offer DoWVJuneBorI\11d.U'Btrrratgec(t;OO'rp.'mt. yhe80te65, presented merely for the conven,enc of Ihe subscriber Whde -He believe Ihe wurces of our Informa- sioIOa!' dtr9o.nb\p..H,t,.!lLnwM!',t\oegtlIn,dqlQlO)wUniJ'l,.I',rdl-r'rfelJn'rtT.ltolornguJoornannte't'.1i'',,6,',inJ'c..IumrearcyySCthaelir,eoIfn nor c, of 0 the statements 0 corporation, m..,de and Its herein Any officers or action to be laken by the subSCrIber should be employees, may now have, or may later lake, OUtt\ulativedqsnlfeJe(ta124v8gfllles menTlonEill 811l166- any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter ex.pressed In L-cttuilsltoomr earsnyInodlehpeernIdsesunetlyJoanf noenyy MstoantelgmoemnetsrymSacdoett,InInthciS, wortllcmh aISnyreogtihseterreISdsuWe ithFutrhteheSrECinfaosrmaantIOInnveosntmaennyt asdeVciusrolrl,ymmaeynlgliovnecdadhVeirceein'aISItsavInavIleasbtmleenotnadrVeqisuoeryt and othel

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