Viewing Month: April 1982

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 02, 1982

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 02, 1982

Tabell's Market Letter - April 02, 1982
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVIBION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHAhlOe April 2, 1982 The S P 500 attained a high of 140.52 on November 28, 19S0, some 70 weeks ago, and, 'at fts-IowOii-March-S, was down'237Qoear marltet'by' allconventibhal-standards–Under-';'–'I' these conditions it is no surprise that large numbers of stocks are scraping along the bottoms of their ranges for that 70-week period and have, during the period, posted substantial declines. What is surprising, however, is that a significant minority of issues imd themselves, at the moment, in the upper 10 of their range since November, 19S0, having moved up 40-50 and retraced very little of that move. The following table, based on the S iii P group indices, highlights this fact. For each group, the first column shows its current decile or position within its 74-week range, ranked from 1 (highest) to 10 (lowest) The next two columns show the number of weeks since the high for the period was made and since the low for the entire time frame wss scored. From thst high and low is derived the last major move, the percentage change from high to low or from low to high, depending on which of the two was scored more recently. The final column shows the percentage of thst move retraced as of this Wednesdsy Typical bear market performance, of course, is that of the Oil group which is down 4S from a high made 70 weeks ago to a low made four weeks ago. Only 5 of thst total move has been retrsced. At the same time that this has been going on, however, the Retail-Department Store group has scored a 4S upmove to a high just a week ago and has, this week, retraced only 3 of the total move. Even in bear markets, diversity continues to be the rule. GR 0 UP mKS SINCE LAST PERCENT DECILE HIGH LOW HOVE RETRACED GR0 UP WEEKS SINCE LAST PERCENT DECILE HIGH LOW MOVE RETRACED AEROSPACE 10 65 2 -47.3 6.3 AlUMINUM 10 54 2 -45.2 3.3 AUTOMOBILE -I—EXCLUDIH6 GEN. MOTORS ,…6.7. 41 73 22 -37.4 31.8 22 -39.6 44.3 .- AUTOI'ATSAFTEIf1IARKET- 441'-2l-217-'6r.1 AUTO PARTS-ORG. EQUIPMENT 10 41 2 -24.1 B.O AUTO TRUCKS t PARTS 10 41 3 -36.4 1.8 BEVERAGES BREWERS I 0 67 44.3 0.0 BEVERAGES DISTILLERS 10 69 2 -29.2 6.1 SOFT DRINKS 3 42 73 32.1 24.7 BLDG. AIR CONDITIONING 3 13 67 41.6 20.7 CEMENT 10 40 0 -34.2 0.0 HEATING I PLUMBING 9 44 3 -35.9 13.0 ROOFING I WALLBOARD 10 O 0 -31.2 0.0 BUILDING COMPOSITE 10 40 3 -30.7 4.4 CHEMICALS 9 53 3 -35.9 10.0 CHEMICALS-MISC. 10 51 3 -32.2 3.7 COAl BITUMINOUS 10 37 3 -40.5 7.1 COMMUNICATION EQUIP/MFRS 5 21 57 64.2 49.9 COHPUTER SERVICES 9 43. 3 -37.6 12.5 CONGLONERATES 10 70 2 -30.6 5.B CONTAINER HETAl I GLASS 10 44 4 -27.2 0.1 CONTAINER PAPER 4 44 27 -21.9 65.5 COPPER 10 33 3 -57.9 6.0 COSHETICS 10 49 2 -33.2 5.4 ORUGS 7 43 68 24.2 6.9 ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT 8 40 72 25.4 76.7 ELECTRONIC KAJOR COS. 5 54 22 -22.8 53. ELECTRICAL HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCE 3 43 68 35.6 25.3 ELECTRONICS-INSTRUMENTATION 8 43 3 -24.3 21.1 ELECTRONICS (SEMICONDUCTORS/CO 8 70 II -44.8 21.7 ENTERTAINMENT 2 43 73 52.2 18.6 FERTILIZERS 10 66 2 -68.1 3.0 FOODS I I 68 31.5 1.8 FOREST PRODUCTS 10 54 2 -41.3 4.3 GAHIN6 COMPANIES 5 44 26 -31.1 56.8 GOLD 10 73 2 -59.0 4.2 HOME BUILDING 10 5 2 -53.6 0.6 HONE FURNISHINGS 9 40 67 41.4 83.8 HOSPITAL KAHAGENENT COMPANIES 9 43 2 -3.8 17.4 HOSPITAL SUPPLIES 3 6 29 29.0 20.3 HOTEl/MOTEL 9 41 2 -32.0 17.1 LEISURE TIME 6 8 73 53.6 56.6 MACHINE TOOLS 9 41 4 -43.3 12.3 AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY 10 69 0 -48.6 0.0 KACHINERY CONSTRUCTION I HAT. 10 48 2 -32.8 2.1 KACHINERY INDUSTRIAL/SPECIALTY 10 71 2 -38.9 5.6 METALS MISCELLANEOUS 10 33 2 -2.9 6.5 MOBILE HONES 5 41 68 65.3 43.9 OFFICE I BUS. EQUIP. 9 71 19 -29.7 17.5 EXCLUDING I.U 101 2 -!O.J) 5.10. OFFSHORE DRILLING 10 66 27 -.8 8.1 CANADIAN OIL I GAS 10 33 2 -7.5 2.5 OIL CRUDE PRODUCERS 9 70 3 -51.0 10. OIL Ole IINHTETGERGATRElDiTDOEMDEISHTITCERHATIO1N0AL-170070-4 -253;.1o-5.794–1 OIL COMPOSITE 10 70 4 -48.1 5. OIL WELL EOUIPMENT AND SERVICE 10 70 0 -52.2 0.0 PAPER 10 53 2 -31.8 0.4 POLLUTION CONTROL 9 49 3 -37.8 1.5 PUBLISHING 5 U 68 31.0 44.2 PUBLISHING (NEWSPAPERS) 7 2 67 41.3 64.7 RADIO BROADCASTERS 5 21 67 34.2 42.3 RAILROAD EQUIPMENT 9 71 2 -38.3 11.5 RESTAURANTS 2 I 68 48.0 13.2 DISCOUNT STORES 8 45 3 -30,2 28.0 RETAIL STORES DEPARTMENT I I 68 47.9 3.1 RETAIL STORES(DRU6) 7 4 66 47.1 62.3 FOOD CHAIN 4 41 27 -21.4 69.5 GENERAL MERCHANDISE CHAINS 4 41 67 43.7 38.7 RETAIL STORES COMPOSITE 3 41 68 40.0 28.5 SHOES 6 42 68 36.5 51.6 SOAPS 1 4 67 28.4 6.9 STEEL 10 53 0 -38.0 0.0 EXCLUDING U.S. STEEL 10 53 0 -40.9 0.0 SUGAR REFINERS 7 73 26 -37.2 39.8 TEXTILE APPAREL MFRS. 10 53 3 -40.5 8.2 TEXTILE PRODUCTS 5 48 67 37.8 42.7 TIRES I RUBBER 4 40 68 33.0 32.3 TOBACCO 6 20 67 22.6 51.7 TOYS 9 71 3 -55.6 11.8 ELECTRIC COMPANIES I 3 68 23.9 6.1 NATURAL GAS DISTRIBUTORS 10 70 2 -36.5 7.6 NATURAL GAS PIPELINES 10 70 2 -1.5 5.5 TELEPHONE 4 19 68 32.5 34.6 EXCLUDING ANER. TEL I TEL 5 20 58 36.6 49.9 AIR FREIGHL. . , 9- 2 -43.1 15.7 AIR TRANSPORT 7 4 9 -44.8 35.6 RAILROADS 10 70 3 -3.7 6.0 TRUCKERS 9 42 66 SO.2 82.0 BANKS(NEW YORK CITY) 5 41 73 3.5 0.9 BANKS(OUTSIDE NEW YORK CITY) 10 41 2 -29.7 6.4 LIFE INSURANCE 6 I 6B 29.0 SO.7 HULTI-LINE INSURANCE I 4 68 1.5 7.2 PROPERTY-CASUALITY INSURANCE 4 I 68 34.0 30.9 SAVINGS I LOAN COHPANIES 10 72 2 -52.7 7.3 PERSONAL LOANS 10 I 2 -27.1 3.7 BROKERAGE FIRHS 6 I 57 67.3 57. INVESTMENT COHPANIES 9 65 2 -30.9 11.2 INVESTMENT COS.(BOND FUNDS) 5 19 29 15.1 49.5 REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS 5 34 70 35.3 44.7 DOw-.fones IlrdUlifrftils (12 00 pm.) 835.33 S iii P Composite (1200 p.m.) 114.43 Cumulative Index (4111S2 10SS.23 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No tolement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contolned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly. on offer or the sol,cllotion of on offer to buy or sell ony security referred 10 or menlloned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of Ihe subscriber While we believe the sources of our Informa- tion to be rellOble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of thc statements mude herein Any action 10 be laken by Ihe subscnber should be based on hiS own Invesligahon Clnd information Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, as a corporation, Clnd Its offICers or employees, may now have, or may !cller lake, paslhons or Irodes In respect 10 any seCUrities mentioned In thl or any future usue, ond such poSition may be different from any views now or hereofler expressed In Ihl or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, moy give adVICe to Its Investment adVISOry and athel customers ,dependently of any statements mode In thiS or In any alher luue Further Infarmohan on any secu(lly mentioned herem IS avollable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 08, 1982

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 08, 1982

Tabell's Market Letter - April 08, 1982
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 081540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW 'tORI( STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER A.MERICAN STOCI( EXCHANGE April 8, 1982 —– –We-are – hold-your hats —-about-to..ssue–another-oneof.outfearlessforecasts .The stOck market has eitlier reached a major bottom — or it hasn't. – If you, dear reader, are still with us after the above pronouncement, let us hasten to state that, in our view, it is not as entirely without information content as it might first appear, nor do we feel particularly inclined to apologize for it. Uncertainty is, very often, a fact of life, and the advisor does his audience no service by pretending that it does not exist. There is little doubt that con- ventional cycle theory argues persuasively in favor of a major stock-market bottom's occuring sometime during the year 1982, and at this moment, we have an identifiable low having occurred in the major averages exactly a month ago, on March 8. Market action since that time has been marginally con- structive. Indeed, a base could be forming which would make the most plausible short-term forecast one which called for a rally — perhaps extending as far as the low to middle 900's. Were such a course in fact to ensue, the obvious question would become whether or not such a rally constituted the initial phase of a major upswing from that March 8 low or whether another bottom, testing and lor penetrating March 8, was yet in the offing. Sticking our neck out just a shade further, we confess, that given current evidence, should a short-term rally take place, we would be inclined toward the latter view. We are not certain, in other words, that March 8 — or indeed the entire September, 1981-March, 1982 configuration — possessed all of the characteristics of a major cyclic bottom. This opinion is, of course, subject to change based on the further accumulation of technical evidence, and it will be our job to keep our readers thus informed. Characteristically, one of the more diffichlt decisions which' has to be made at the occurance of a putative major low is whether or not market psychology has reached its absolute nadir. Important bottoms in the past have tended to be characterized by maximum visibility for whatever conventional wisdom assured us were the major worries of the moment and the accompanying absolute certainty that these worrisome factors coulaaonauglitoUt1iecomeworH'-resUlchasgefterallybeen-a–nllar— consensus forecast, at each low, that the market could only go lower. It is necessary only to pick up the newspaper to identify the conventional worries of the moment. They can be summarized as (1) Deficit, (2) Recession, and (3) Interest Rates. Simultaneous concern of any magnitude about the first two is, of course, a form of double counting. If the seeds of con- tinuing recession or even depression are in fact present, then, of course, a deficit becomes nothing more or less than appropriate fiscal policy. This is true whether one adheres to the now-largely- discredited fiscalist view or to the conventional monetarist view. The former would hold that fiscal stimulus is a necessary ingredient for recovery. The latter would suggest that, within limits, decreased private credit demand makes it a simple task to finance the deficit while maintaining the proper growth rate for monetary aggregates. If, on the other hand, the recession is close to its end, the convention- al wisdom about the size of the deficit — which, it must be remembered, is projected not actual — may be widely off the mark. Regarding the third factor, high interest rates, it is. of course, fashionable to blame them for about every concievable ill other than this week's snowstoI'III and the Falkland Island war. We are perhaps overly optimistic, but we find ourselves unable to view double-digit interest rates as a totally unmixed disaster. It would be hard to claim that those individuals who have invested almost 200 billion in money funds, where, at minimal risk, they earn record returns in a period of reduced inflation, have not received some economic benefit from current interest-rate levels. We have become used, fortunately or unfortunately over the past three decades, to an economic environment that favors borrowers and spenders. It is not surprising that the transition to one which tends to favor lenders and savers should be painful in many sectors. A value judgment as to which climate is to be preferred, however, is something else again. To many, the above view will be incredibly optimistic, but. we are not sure it. would .be universally considered outrageous, which opinion would be a necessary precursor to the sort of market psychology discussed above. Difficult as it is to gauge these things, we are not sure that concern regarding the three spectres discussed above has yet reached the stage of irrational panic. We can be sure that, when it does, the stock-market bottom will be at hand. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Cumulative Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (4/7182) 838.66 115.71 1104.74 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL AWT It No statement or eoprC5lon of OPinion or any other moUer herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed fo be, direCTly or indirectly, on offer or the ol,c,tallon alan offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentIoned The matter IS presented merely for the convenienCE of the subscrlbef WhIle we believe Ihe sources of aUf Informalion to be rel'oble, we In no way represent or guarantee the ocurocy thereof nor of the statements mllde herein Any actIon to be token by the subscflber should be based on hl own InvestigatIon and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, 'nc, 010 corporatIon, and Its off,cers or employees, may now have, or may later tae, positIons or Trades In respect 10 any seCUrllles mentIoned In thIS or any future Issue, C1nd such poslllan may be dlffClenl from ony views now or hereafter e;.precd In HilS or any other luue, Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whIch IS regIstered WIth the SEC os on Investment adVIsor, moy gIve adVIce to ItS tnvestment adVisory and othel cvstomers IndependenTly of any statemellls mode ,n thIS or m ony other 155ue Further mformotlOn on any security mentioned hereIn 1 avmloble on requeu

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 16, 1982

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 16, 1982

Tabell's Market Letter - April 16, 1982
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STA.TE ROA.D. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE i—- .– The Dow Jonesdndustrii'ilAverage-shoWed April 16, 1982 a.mooest -decline me tiFSt part oftJUs weelt;-……… I – – I through late Thursday afternoon rallying in the last hour to trim most of its losses posted early in the week. Within this framewo'rk continued rotation of leadership in groups – can be observed in a diverse market climate. On the one hand, constructive group relative strength is being seen in Drugs, Insurance, Retailing and Utilities, holding above their September, 1981 lows during the recent March decline. On the other hand, others, such as the Oil-related groups, for example, have penetrated last year's September lows during the March decline, together with the broader-based market averages. Considerable attention continues to be focused on the March 8, 1982 low of 795.47 on the DJIA. Is this 5.97 rise in the DJIA an intermediate rally in a bear market, or is it, in fact, the start of a major bul! market The fol!owing exhibit examines the major bull markets and bear markets that have occurred since the DJIA first attempted to penetrate the 1000 level in the Fall of 1966, some 16 years ago. For purposes of this exercise we are defining bull and bear markets as percentage swings of greater than 20 up and 20 down. EXHIBIT D-a-te 6/26/62 2/9/66 10/7/66 -' -1-2-13/.68 . — – 5/26/70 1/11/73 12/6/74 9/21/76 2/28/78 4/27/81 3/8/82 Average Advance Average Decline DJ Average 535.76 995.15 744.32 – – -985.21 631.16 1051. 70 577.60 1014.79 742.12 1024.05 795.47 59.68 31. 08 Chan 0.00 85. 75 -25.21 – .b32…36 -35.94 66. 63 -45.08 75. 69 -26.87 37.99 -22.32 Length 669 Days Length 319 Days Number Days This Swing – , . 0 913 167 51 R 367 665 481 452 362 798 218 – Three observations become immediately significant when inspecting the five advances and declines that have occurred since 1962. First, bull markets tend to last twice as long as bear markets, both in time and amplitude. Secondly, the average decline of the five bear markets is 31. 08. Thirdly, the average number of trading days for the five declines is 319 days. Therefore, historically, it would not be unprecedented for the recent bear market both in ex- tent (22.32 vs. 31. 08 average) and duration (218 trading days vs. 319 trading days average) to reestablish itself. This possibility continues to exist in an environment, as this letter has repeatedly emphasized, where a major technical constant has been present over the past 16 years – the flat secular trend of the equity market. Point-and-figure analysis of the DJIA gives another perspective of the dilemma which would seem to argue against a major advance developing immediately from these levels. The two-point and fivepoint- charts of the DJIAindicate' upSide(jbjectiveS-inthe-880 area.- Were- the DJIA to rise sharply toward these objectives it seems apparent overhead supply would pre- sent an effective barrier to a further advance until additional reaccumulation, base-building, and lor a test of the March low takes place. This type of pattern is also reflected in a great many individual chart patterns. The above is not able to give a definitive conclusion to the question asked earlier. How- ever, what this seems to indicate is that all the technical evidence is not in. Participation in the current advance for as long as it might last would seem logical. But we must wait for the accumulation of further technical proof to appear to demonstrate the case for the next bull market. RJS rs ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 841. 23 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 116.46 Cumulative Index (4/15/82) 1108.81 No statement or expression of opinion or any other moIler herem contained is, or I.to be deemed to be, dlrt!ctly or Indirectly, on offer or the 50llcilolIOn of on offer 10 buy or sell any security referred to or menhoncd The molter 1 preenled merely for the convenience of the ubscrlber While we believe the sources of our Informa- tion to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy Thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any oehon to be token by the subSCriber should be based on hIS own mveStlgot,on and informaTion Janney Montgomery coll, Inc, as 0 corporohon, and .15 offICers or employees, may now have, or may loter toke, poslhons or trades m respect 10 any securities mentioned .n thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSitIOn moy be different from any views now or hereofter expressed m thiS or any other l.Ssue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may gIVe adVice to Its Investment adVisory and othel customers mdependently of cny ,!olemena mode In thiS or m any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 23, 1982

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 23, 1982

Tabell's Market Letter - April 23, 1982
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK E)(CHANQe, tNC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK E)(CH4H13E April 23, 1982 This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, although over-bought short term, continued –toHshow strengtflrallyiilg 7.25 t6 datefrolldts' March 8 low of 795 47. 'Upside objectives in –the 880 area continue to be indicated. We mentioned last week the continuing rotation of leadership in the market since the 1981 September lows were established and then recently tested during the March decline. The list- ing below of the one fiimdred S 8. P base-weighted aggregative groups shows the percentage change ranked best to worst of these groups from September, 1981 to March, 1982. While it can be seen that three-fourths of these S 8. P groups have in fact penetrated the September 1981 lows, there remains a number of groups which have held above their September lows in many cases reflecting substantial gains of 10 or more. Careful analysis of this latter group, given individual groups that reflect above average relative strength on downswings also tend to perform well on the next up cycle, could provide guidance to the investor in identifying market leadership in the next up market. SEPT. HARCH SEPT. HARCH 1981 1992 1981 1982 GROUP NAME LOW LOW . CHANGE ————— ——- ——- ——– ENTERTAINHENT 255.30 302.00 18.292 -G-R-O-U-P–N-A-H-E—– —LO-W— LOW ——- — CHANGE —— TOY MANUFACTURE 12.89 11. 92 -7.525 FOODSUGAR 29.51 34.87 18.163 MACHINE TOOL 13.Ol t 1 .58 -7.901 MULTI-LINE INSU 21.75 25.45 17.012 BANKS OUT NYC 105.1.6 96.19 -8.530 HOSPITAL surPL Y 45.65 3.33 16.84 HOME rURNISHING 25.03 2.8B -8.590 RETAIL STRS-DEP 159.57 184.01 15.316 fERSONAL LOAUS 70.34 64.14 -8.814 SOAPS 139.B7 161.20 15.250 EVERAGES-DISTI 190.48 172.58 -9.397 BEVERAGES-BNEWE 45.24 51.17 13.108 AUTOMOBILES 51.15 45.95 -10.166 fOOD CHAIN STOR 50.01 57.41 1.90 f'OLLUrION CONTR 41.70 37.35 -10.432 BLnrAIRCON431S8 7 -l–2-.-8-APE-R 2 . J 5 …JB–O–..J.'O-.-S40 FOODS-eotU'Os I TE 7S.53 tH.85 J . 340 I INVESTHENT COS 57.07 50.99 -10.671 CONTAINERS-PAPE 193.32 215.55 11.499 I COMPUTER SERVIC 17.66 15.76 -10.79 UTIL-ELEC f'WR C 28.34 31.40 10.798 I RAILROA1 EQUIP 75.52 67.22 -10.991 PROP-LIAB INSUR 133.08 147.15 10.573 I CONTAIN-METAL!G 39.08 34.41 -110950 GAMING COHPANIE 9.97 11.02 10.53! I CHEMIUILS 56.08 49.26 -12.161 RETAIL STORES 73.B7 80.85 9.449 I CONGLOMER(lTES 24.4B 21.50 -12.173 RESTAURANTS 38.63 41. 89 8.439 I IlL! MA1ER-COMP 60.14 59.67 -12.430 ELECTRONIC(MAJO 89.19 96.66 8.375 OIL INfERtlATION 09.44 183.19 -1.S33 RETAIL-GfNL MER 6.09 6.52 7.061 BUI HA1-CEHENT 39.77 34.53 -13.176 GOTIRES&RUBER 121.01 18ol6 LIFE INSURANCE 219.0 232.00 5.909 5.039 F.I'lILROADS 78.80 67.77 -13.998 IlLD MAT-f\OOFtWA 66.24 56.92 -14.070 BANIS-NYC 50.79 53.74 5.809 E'LD HAT-HEAT&f'L 104.46 89.68 -140149 INVESTMENT COS( 6.B4 7019 5.117 CHEMICALS MISC. 13.09 110 15 -14.821 AUTO PARTS–AFTE 15.94 16.60 40141 AEROSPACE 135.86 115.68 -14.854 ELECr-HOUSEHOLD 155.2 1610 87 4.083 UrIL-tI( GAS f I P 203.25 173.04 14.964 PUBLISHING MOBILE HOME 418.00 434.00 62.32 64.67 3.B28 3.771 HOSPITAL MANAGE 3B.07 3.3B OFltJSS EXC IIIH 227.20 193010 -14.946 -15.009 BEVERAGES-SOFT 101.02 104.67 3.613 Tr..UCI\ERS 103.47 87.74 -15.203 AIR TRANSfORT 43.6 44.66 3.236 MACHINE-CaNtHAT 377.50 319.90 -15.258 AUTOHOBILES(-GM 11.92 12.23 TDBAC-CI GARETTE 110.58 111.91 2.601 1.203 IJfIL-NATURAL GA 104.37 88.42 -15.202 FOREST F'f\OnUCTS 20.06 16.98 -15.354 ELECT-INSTr..UMEN 41.60 41.60 0.000 COSMETICS 51.33 42.91 -16.404 DRUGS UTIL-TEL CDS 205.30 205.20 25.85 25.75 -0.049 -0.397 AGRICULT MACHIN 52.22 43.27 -17.139 AUTO TRUC,&PART 41.65 34.44 -17.311 OFF I CEBUS EaUI 948.60 943.60 -0.527 STEEL 47.00 38.67 -17.723 HOTEL MOTEL' 66.00 COMMUNICATION E 21.7 UTILe-ATT) 42.84 .RTAIL-DF.UG 31-.63 65.65 21.55 42.10 30a9 -0.530 OIL-COMPOSITE 258.70 211.50 -0.783 MACHI tiE – I NDUSTR 173.91 142.03 -1.727 ALUMINUH 121. 99 99.26 -2.340 ,1- COAl- BI TUM INDUS 369.00,…. 299.80, -18.245 -18.331 -18.633 -18.753 TEXTILE PF.ODUCT 59.92 58.35 RADIO ElRonCASTE 556.60 541.80 ELECT-SEMI CONO 26.15 25.3B -2.457 -2.659 -2.945 STEEL(-USSTl) TEXTILES-APPAF.E HOMEBUILIING 46.98 46.16 32.30 37.97 35.61 24.89 -19.178 -22.855 -22.941 ELECTRICAL EQUI 376.30 364.90 SHOES 70.06 67.82 OFFSHORE DRILL 135.66 131. 07 -3.030 -3.197 -3.383 OIL PETR-CRUlE 611.00 469.60 OIL DOMESTIC 32.10 246.70 I1ACHItIE-QIL UEL 1953.40 1450.00 -23.142 -23.409 -25.771 DISCOUNT STORES LEISURE TIME L ESTATE-INVES BROKERflGE FIF-tiS AUTO PARTS-OR E PUEtL-N(WSf'AF ERS 17.28 65.04 2.72 26.59 18.89 36.74 16.66 61.37 2.56 24.97 17.67 34.26 -3.588 -5.643 -5.882 -6.093 -6.458 -6.750 METAL MISC CANADIAH OIUGA S&L ASSN HOLD C COf'PER GOLD MINING FERTILIZERS 115.40 23.60 20.72 67.65 300.70 18.97 77.43 15.78 13.31 39.29 174.00 10.77 -32.903 -33.136 -35.763 -41.922 -42.135 -43.226 Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) 856.16 S 8. P Composite (1200 p.m.) 117.97 Cumulative Index (4/22/82) 1130.91 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL – No statement or e)(prenlon of opInion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the soliCitation of on offer to buy or sell any ecunty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscrlber While Ne believe the sources of our Informahon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statement, mode herein Any odlon to be token by lhe ,ubscrlber should be based on hIS own Investigation and Information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as I corporohon, and lIS officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, pos!tlons or trades In re'pect to ony securilies mentioned In thiS or ony future Issue, and such posilion may be different from any views now or hereofter e)(pressed In thIS or ony other Issue Jonney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, moy give adVICe to liS Investment adVisory and other customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herern IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 30, 1982

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 30, 1982

Tabell's Market Letter - April 30, 1982
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGe, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – April 30. 1982 ,,- ,.— – StUYl-'-ng'-t-o-c–k–m;';–k-e-t-his't'ory–h-a-s-.,-t-o'-u-s-.-a-iw,.,–a-y-s….b..-.e..;''n-.f;'s..,,c-i-n-iiti-ng-b-e-c-a-u-s-e…it-h-a.s,…–al-w–Ii'ys-''''''''''''' constituted a blend of the new and the old. It is. essentially of course. a product of the collective action of human investors subject to the same emotions that have afflicted humans. presumably. since Adam. Yet simple-minded analysis of historical data often comes to grief because peculiar circumstances produce trading patterns that have previously never — or only rarely-occurred. An instance is 1976-1978. a conventional bear market fitting neatly into the major fouryear-cycle pattern which had prevailed back to the inception of the Republic and also into the order of swing magnitude that has existed for the past eight years. However. 1976,,78 also produced a phenomenon that was historically unique. that of secondary issues rising in the face of a sharply falling market. something that a close study of market history revealed had not occurred previously in this century. It is at least conceivable that such a relatively unique pattern is tracing itself out at the present time. 1981-82 has seen what. like 1976-78. was a conventional bear market in the aver- as. running at least through last September. There fOllowed a six-month period of sideways action. an event unusual if not entirely unprecedented. followed by a new low early last month. That decline. however. failed to follow through and has been superseded. at least through mid- week this week. by a burst of market strength. It remains. of course. possible that this consti- tutes only another interruption preceding a test and lor penetration of the March lows. We have felt for some time that this interpretation was appropriate. and we are. at this stage. still not readv to abandon it At the same tim-e. it cannot tie denied that the lack ofMysubStlmtive—I and continuing downside pressure since last September has caused improving technical patterns to manifest themselves in large numbers of stocks. 1976-1978 was dubbed. at the time. the two-tier market. and it is just such a pattern which may once again be emerging — with the components of the two tiers in question unsurprisingly quite different. The tier showing superior strength. with most components having manifested sharp rises since last Fall. consists of a diverse group of issues such as Banks. Insurance Companies. Utilities. Foods. Drugs. etc. Conversely. the bear market over the past year-and-a-half has been led by Energy and Commodity issues. It is not hard to find a common denominator unifying each of the two tiers. The latter are the classic inflation hedges; the former. uniformly. are those issues which may benefit. in one way or another. from the abatement of inflation. It can hadly be accidental that this phenomenon is becoming evident at a time when the Consumer Price Index has just fallen. on a month-to-month basis. for the first time in 17 years. Quite obviously this event is dramatic. It is also. in our opinion. not a fluke. It is. in fact. part of an ongoing pattern of a reduced rate-of-increase in the CPI going back to last October. Adminstration forecasters were accused of wide-eyed optimism at the beginning of the year for suggesting thst 1982 inflation might be under 6. Three months later. something on this order has now become the conSensus forecast. and it is probably far too high. If the average inflation rate of the past six months prevails for the remainder of 1982. the year's rise in the CPI will be ont-heorder.of-2t. -We would suggest that a.rate even closer to zero would not be a bad long-shot bet. Stock prices. and the prices of financial assets in general are. in our view. just beginning their adjustment to this drastic change in economic circumstances. This adjustment. we suspect. is far from over. It is difficult to accumulate long-range data on shifts in market preference between inflation and disinflation issues specifically. However. similar shifts in preference between broad general market areas have generally tended to persist over long cycles, 0 n average four to six .,ears. We may. in other words. be living with the two tiers that have developed in 1981-82 for quite some time. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TAB ELL Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) 846.56 S 8. P Composite (1200 p.m.) 116.42 Cumulative Index (4/29/82) 1132.18 No slalemel'lt to buy or sell or expreUlon of opmion Of any other any seurhy referred Ie. Or ment,oned motter herein The motter IS contol1led pre5ented IS, or IS to be merely for the deemed 10 be, convenience of tdhierec5tulbyconrbeInrdirWechtillye, an we offer or believe the SOll;llotlon of the sources of our an offer Informo- lion to be reliable, we In no way repre5enr or guarantee the accurocy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any o;llOn to be token by the sub5cnber should be based on hiS own Investigation and mformallon Janney Montgomery ScolI, Inc, os 0 corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, posrllons or trades In reSpect to ony secUfltl(lS mentioned In thl or any future Issue, and such positron may be different from any Views now or hereafter erpressed In thl or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to ItS mV(!stment adVisory and olhel aJstomen Il'Idependently af any statements mode In thiS or m any other ISSue Further Information on any serurrty mentioned herein Il available on request

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