Viewing Month: October 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 03, 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 03, 1975

Tabell's Market Letter - October 03, 1975
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE October 3, 1975 I-',,–'- -The'800-790 -level -onthe–Dow Jones' Industrla'lo-Average ;whlclFhad -provltted -demafitnor– equities on previous drops In the latter part of August and mid-September, was finally breached in last week's trading In three consecutive days of decline on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. The Average gave up some 35 paints to reach a closing low of 784.16 before a rally back into what must now be con- sidered overhead supply took place Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. As the market plunges to new six-month lows, it Is perhaps worthwhile to take stock and, once again, reassess the prospects. We think, first of all, the probabilities point in the direction of lower prices. As our read- ers are aware, we have, indeed, voiced this suspicion ever since the 800 level was penetrated for the first time in August. When the 790 level twice provided impressive evidence of demand, we felt It might be necessary to reverse our position, but that possibility was negated as the 790 level was shattered this week. From a longer term point of view, however, — and this is probably the most imPortant factor to note — we do not view the anticipated weakness as the start of a major bear market. We do not think that the distributional tops which have presently formed are of sufficient magnitude to suggest such a case, and the July high was totally devoid of the deterioration on the part of the leading indicators which have forecast major bear markets in the past. What we are looking for, then, is the continuation of an intermediate-term decline within the context of an ongoing upswing. Such a decline is a phenomenon not without precedent. If we are correct in our contention, the downswing that began on July 15, will be the tenth in a series of declines greater than 10 which have Interrupted ongOing bull markets since 1949. A list of some relevant figures for each of the nine previous declines and the current one follows. Star-t Endl .,Ghallge ..,.,….–…..,.,..,,,,,,.–No.,ofE I,.- Date Jun 12, 1950 Jan 5, 1953 Sep 23, 1955 Apr 6, 1956 Aug 2, 1956 Jan 5, 1960 May14, 1965 Sep 25, 1967 Apr 28, 1971 Jul 15, 1975 Date Previous Advance Decline Trading Days Jul 13, 1950 41. 10 -13.55 22 Sep 14, 1953 48.80 -13.04 176 Oct 11, 1955 90.79 -10.02 12 May28, 1956 18.80 -10.03 36 Feb 12, 1957 II. 12 -12.69 132 Oct 25, 1960 63.29 -17.42 205 Jun 28, 1965 75.38 -10.54 30 Mar21,1968 26.70 -12.51 122 Nov 23, 1971 50.65 -16.08 146 Oct 1, 1975 52.67 -11.07 55 to date As can be seen, past declines of thiS nature have had some Similar characteristics. They have ranged in terms of percentage drop from around 10 In 1955 and 1956 to as much as 17 m 1960. They have tended to take place after the market has already advanced a goodly percentage. With a single excep- tion, all of them followed market rises of 40 or more and the current case is typical, taking place, as it does, after a 52.67 rise on the Dow from its low of last December. What is especially Interesting is the length of past mtermediate-term declines. A glance at the table shows that they can be rather neatly divided into two categories, long ones and short ones. As the table shows, they have either been over with quickly, in around 30 days or less, or they have extended themselves in time.to upwards.of 120 days .. This holds some implications for theGurredown -S';lng, now 55 days old, since it is presently weh past the short time-category. This would'seem'to suggest that the weakness may extend further in time. Were the current market to follow the precedent of previous ones, weakness could well continue past the first of the year. However, with the market already down 11 ,the further percentage drop from here if the present downswing, as we think It will, falls into the intermediate-term claSSification, is hardly that great. There IS another characteristic of declines of this nature, moreover, in that they tend to be selec- tive with a great many stocks proving resistant to the trend. We expect that this will also be true in the case of the current weakness. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (10/2/75) 465.41 AWT/jb 800.77 84.51 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or expression of opinion or any other motter herein contolned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the soliCitation of on offer to buy or sell ony security referred to or mentioned The mOiler IS presented merely for Ihe conver,ence of the subscriber. Wflile e believe the sources of our Informo- hon 10 be relloble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any actIon to be taken by the subscflber should be based an hIS own mveSl1gatlon and Information Janney Mangomery Scott, Inc, as a corporatIon, and Its offICers or employees, may now have, or may laler take, posItions or trades In respect to any SecUr,eS mentIoned In thIS or any future Issue, and such posltJon may be dolferent from any vIews now or hereafter expressed In thIS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whICh IS regIstered WIth the SEC 05 on Investment adVIsor, may gIve adVice to Its Investment adVIsory and othel customers Independently of any statements made ,n thIS or In any ather Issue Further informatIon on any security mentIoned hereIn IS avaIlable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 10, 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 10, 1975

Tabell's Market Letter - October 10, 1975
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIYISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – -….- – –. – -, , ,,,-, '-, -T';,-,- . – —.,;;… ——.-. Octiber'fO-r975 0-;;–.; — General market action since August has been, to say the least, a bit confusing. The Dow reached a low on August 21 of 791.69, duplicated It on September 16 at 795.13 and penetrated that low sllghtly at 784.16 on October 1. The pattern of the S & P 500 was a llttle bit different In that Its October 1st low, while below the August one, was higher than the one In September. Over this period group action was extremely diverse and may provide some clues as to future leadership. The table below llsts 101 S & P Industry group indices, which are computed each Wednesday, showing their lows of September 17 (the day after the general market made its low) and their lows of October 1 expressed as a percentage of their August 20 low. Some Interesting conclusions may be drawn. Groups which held above their August low on both subsequent dates are showing better-than-market strength. Those groups which met this criterion, together with the requirement that the October low be above the September one, are marked with a plus sign in the table. Groups that have moved sharply be- low their August level obviously are demonstrating weakness which could continue were the market to turn down. Those groups where each of the three successive lows was at a lower figure are marked with a minus Sign. Auto Parts Price as of 8/20 WL. ….!.QL!. .w.z…Price as of 8/20 ….!.QL!. 93.3 100.0 Foods-Can.Foods 97.4 99.3 Railroads Price as of 8/20 M1 .!.QLl 97.7 102.1 Aerospace 100.3 101.2 Foods-Dairy Prod. 98,3 102.4 -Rlrd.Equlp. 99.7 99.5 Air Freight 95.9 111.3 Foods-Meat Pack. 108.8 105.1 Real Est. 93.2 101.'7 Air Transport 92.6 105.1 Foods-Pack.Foods 98.6 102.9 Restaurants 103.8 101.1 Aluminum 100.1 87.4 Forest Prod. 96.8 97.9 Ret.Stor.Comp. 100.5 103.4 …….,. Atol)lic,Energy ,90.,410LlGold,Mining n.10'l,.4R!'t.Stor.Dept.9B.710), .0, Automobile 101.1 103.1 -Home Fum. 98.2 98.0 Ret.Stor.Dlsc. 106.8 101.2 Auto Parts-Orig.Eq. 101.9 101.8 Hosp.Supplies 94.6 103.5 Ret.Stor.Fd.Chns. 96.2 106.8 Auto Trucks & Part 99.4 100.0 Hotel-Motel 102.6 101.2 Ret.Stor.Mail Ord. 102.7 101.9 Beverages-Brewers 90.9 98.2 Lead & Zinc 105.9 102.3 Ret.Stor.Variety 101.7 105.6 Beverages-Dist. 93.8 100.2 Leisure Time 95.0 102.2 Shoes 106.3 111.9 Beverages-Soft Dr. 94.1 101.3 Machine Tools 99.7 101.7 Soaps 96.8 101.4 Bldg.Mat.Composite 94.7 97.6 Machinery (Agrlc) 106.5 101.0 Steel 105.5 94.9 Bldg. Mat.Air.Cond. 94.2 101.6 Machinery-Comp. 98.2 98.5 -Sugar-Beet Ref. 99.2 97.9 Bldg.Mat.Cement 96.8 102.7 Mach.Const.Mat.Han.96.9 101.1 Textiles-App.Mfg. 96.4 107.4 -Bldg.Mat.Heat.P!. 99.9 97.9 Mach.Industrial 96.3 99.8 Textiles-Syn.Flbr. 103.4 102.8 Bldg. Mat. Roof-Wlbd. 93.3 95.6 -Mach.& Serv.Oil W. 99.1 97.0 Textile Prod. 102.5 102.1 -Chemicals 99.6 94.5 Mach.Speclalty 103.2 96.4 Tire & Rub.Gds. 102.4 101.6 Coal (Bit.) 100.7 100.1 Mach.Steam Gen. 94.0 101.9 Tobac-Clg.Mfg. 101.6 103.2 Confectionery 100.2 104.4 Metal Fabricating 96.8 99.1 Toys 103.0 92.8 Conglomerates 102.8 99.3 Metals Misc. 100.3 99.7 Truckers 97.3 102.4 Contalners-Mt!.& G!. 101.1 101.0 Mobile Homes 93.8 101.2 Vending Mach. 97.0 103.2 Containers-Paper 102.8 100.4 Motion Pictures 106.9 111.4 -Real Est.Inv.Tr. 96.3 90.4 Copper 102.2 95.1 Offlce Equip. 101.1 101.8 Elec.Power 100.8 101.2 Cosmetics 96.5 100.4 Offshore Drllling 89.2 95.0 Natural Gas Dist. 98.9 104.3 Drugs 96.9 99.9 Oil-Composite 99. I 100.9 Natural Gas PI. Lin 102.0 102.0 -Elec.Equip. 99.1 98.8 Oil-Crude Producrs 89.4 105.2 Telephone 98.9 101.4 Elec.-Electron.Mj.Ccs.98.5 100.8 Oil-Dom.Integ. 98.5 101.5 -Banks-N.Y.City 93.0 90.4 -Elec; Hhld''lipp– -87;6 '107. 3 OilIfitl.'Integratd-100. 1- 100 3-Banks-Outslde NYC – 92. 699 I– . – Electronics 95.9 103.5 Paper 100.2 95.4 Sav.& Loan Assoc. 95.3 102.2 Finance Cos. 95.4 96.7 Pollution Control 96.2 102.3 Insurance-Life 96.6 101.0 Finance-Sm.Loan Cos. 99.2 104.6 Publishing 96.9 103.6 Insurance-Multl.Lin.89.6 109.9 Foods-Composite 98.8 102.2 Rad-Tel.Brdcstrs 98.4 102.2 Insur.-Prop.Liab. 90.5 106.6 Invest. Cos. 96.9 101.4 Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (10/9/75) 479.89 AWT/jb 825.72 88.64 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No stotement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contOined IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any sewnly referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the converllnc,-, of the subscriber While we believe Ihe sources of our Informo lion to be reliable, we In no way represent or guaronlee the occuracy thereof nor of the statements mode herem Any action to be token by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation ond information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now hove, or may later toke, posilions or trades In respect to any secunltes menlloned In th,s or any future Issue, ond such pOSIIIO'1 may be dIfferent from any views now or herealfer expressed In thiS or any other Issue Jonney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS reglltered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to ,ts Investment adVisory and other customers ,ndependently of any statements mode In th,s or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentroned herein is available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 17, 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 17, 1975

Tabell's Market Letter - October 17, 1975
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER .' 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCK EXCHANGe, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGe – October 17, 1975 In the past 2 1/2 weeks, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average has essentially crossed fam i Ila.J.tQJ;Y–!mo-'Q!lg,.JI;.P!1ljl,!Q1c10!!l.to. th etopof.J;hetradi ng,ra nge-a hough ly,,–8 0 0,..,8 5O-i n .–.-.,,–II which it has remained since last August, after moving down from its mid-July high around the 880 level. BeginnIng from a closing low of 784.16 on October 1, the index has moved sharply higher to reach a closing high of 837.22 on Wednesday, with an intraday high of 851.46 beIng posted on Thursday. The present, however, happens to be one of those cases where it is necessary to look beyond the Dow in order to get a true story of what is taking place in the market. In terms of breadth, for example, the advance has not been a II that Impress ive. In the entire period during which the Dow moved ahead some 55 pOints, there was only one day on which more than 1000 Issues advanced, that day being FrIday, October 3, two weeks ago, when a 20-point rise for the average produced 1131 advancing issues. Even on that day, advances constituted only 64 of the total issues traded, a rather anemic figure by major reversal standards. If the Dow has been outperforming breadth, however, it has been underperforming the broader-based indices. While the Dow has s imply moved up toward the top of its recent trading range, the Standard & Poor's 500, S & P 425, New York Stock Exchange Compos ite and NYSE Indust- nal indices had all moved decisively out of their August-October trading ranges, and all had clear- cut bases suggesting moderately higher levels. To get a real feeling for what has been taking place over the past two weeks, it is necessary to understand why this lead of the broader-based indices over the Dow has occurred. The reason, of course, lies m the presence—with a heavily weight— in the broad-based indices of the high – total – market – value, technology-based compantes which are largely absent in the Dow. The broad-based indices are computed. essentially, by weighting – each-s tocbi-n'ir-0porti-ont)-'the-tota1-va'Iu-e-oHhe–Share-s-outstarrdlntrs–alolifPa1l191KllIBM-,-..,,..' for example, with a total market value of 31 billion, is a major factor in the action of these capital- weighted indices, while totally absent in the construction of the Dow. What we are saying, of course, is that the first-tier growth favorites of a couple of years ago have, over the short-term, begun to outperform the general market. What we have seen so far, then, is not necessarily as much a sign of a major reversal, as one of a shift in leadership. The question is how long can such leadership be sustained and what does it portend for the market as a whole. If we are to regard the capital-weighted indices mentioned above as a fair barometer of this leadership shift, the answer is that it can probably continue at bit farther. If the pattern on the Dow is a bit obscure, the patterns on these indices are rather clear-cut, all of them, as noted above, having broken out of fairly-well-defined base formations. These base formations almost uniformly suggest a return to an area around, but not decisively above, the highs of last July. The S & P 425, for example, whose high las t Ju ly was 107, has an upSide objective of 104-105, and the 500, with a July peak of 96, has an upside target around 94. The New York Stock Exchange Composite has an upside objective of 50 versus a July peak at 51, and the Industrial index has an upside target of 56 vis-a-vis a mid-summer top at 57. Individual patterns on the heavily-weighted stocks in these indices would appear to suggest that these targets are, indeed, plausible. Whether the growth stocks can provide sustained long-term market leadership at thiS juncture is, in our view, at best questionable. Their premiums over the rest of the market are, aat this pOint. fairly high andwould become even higher were they to cO..tinue.to cutperf..rm the – market o'Ver' short-term. It- ;-e';;s-to-us 'uollJeVth-at Tongterm market advance cantle'sus- tained by returning the growth issues to the position of preeminence vis-a-VIs the rest of the market that they enjoyed two years ago, a position we now know, in the light of hindsight, to be unsustainable. It is, therefore, in our opinion, unrealistl c at this stage to look beyond the near-term prospects of a return to around the July peaks. If, along the way, the market could develop more breadth and vigor than it has shown on the rally so far, the prospects for a broad and sustained move ould become enhanced. At the moment, however, the phenomenon of a sharp Improvement in relative strength on the part of the growth issues has done little more than becloud the general market prospects. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 834.38 ANTHONYW. TABELL S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 89.08 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (10/16/75) 487.60 AWTlJt No statement or expressIOn of opinion or ony other motter herein contolned IS, or IS 0 be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or the 50111;llollon of on offer to buy or sell ony security referred to or mentIOned The maller IS presented merely for the convellencc of the subscnber While we believe the sources of our informatIon to be relloble, we In no way represent or guorontee the occurocy thereof nor of the stotemen's mude herem Any ccTlon to be token by the subscriber should be bosed on 1'\lS own investIgatIon ond Informatlo'l Jenney Montgomery Scott, Inc, os a corporotlon, and Its offlC!HS ar employees, moy now have, or moy later loke, pOSItIOns or trades In respecT to any seCUTltles mentioned In thIS or any future Issue, o'ld such posItIon moy be dIfferent from any vIews now or hereofter e)l'pressed In thIS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whIch IS regIstered WIth the SEC as on Investment odvlsor, may gIve adVIce to Its Investment adVIsory ond olhel customers Independently of ony statements mode m thiS or In any other Issue Further InformatIon on any security mentIoned hereIn IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 24, 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 24, 1975

Tabell's Market Letter - October 24, 1975
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE October 24, 1975 The market strength which ha s so far characterized the month of October, continued -Oowqu-JieOt'liy1'beu'St'Iuinldaubsattreldalslamsot vwienegkdwecitihsitvheelym-atrOkne-teswcloiriignhg-tfoerurr istuocrcyefsosritvheepdaasynshroefea1dnovnatnnSceWaenedx–t-h-e-ok-..,….1 pressed in last week's letter the view that the rally had been, at least in part, a shift in market leadership, citing the superior relative action shown by the broader-based indices versus the Dow-Jones Industrials. We went further to suggest that it was quite plausible that these broadbased indices might mount an attack on their old highs without, in all probability, moving decisively through those highs, and suggested that it would be discreet to await further evidence before looking beyond the prospect for a short-term rally. We still think this to be the case, but it is at least worthwhile to examine the various possible aftermaths to the presently-anticipated short-term strength. The first and most obvious alternative is a continuation of the bull market which began last fall, with the major averages moving decisively to new highs. Impressive teclnical arguments can be marshalled in favor of this theory. If one assumes that a major bull cycle began when the market started to move ahead in early 1975 (and the behavior of the market at that time strongly suggested that this was, in fact, the case), then it would be almost without historical precedent for that cycle to have ended just seven months later in July of this year. Almost all past markets that have fallen into the major-upswing category have had a considerably longer life span, and it is at least an arguable premise that, the July-October correction out of the way, the 1975 bull market still has a healthy life-expectancy. 1–4—-..,.,..,.–'–ThecoUhter-argumentrs7of'ColIt-she-rep8atedly -denrcnstratetltltfftcu1ty;-goingL backnow for almost a decade, that the market has shown in getting through, roughly, the 900 level on the Dow. The latest instance of this, of course, was the July-October drop which started from just under that point. As we have repeatedly suggested, the central characteristic of the market of the past ten years has been a broad trading range, and, as the Dow approached 900, we would find ourselves in the upper part of that range. A move decisively above 900 would mean, therefore, not just a continuation of a ten-month-old bull market, but a reversal of the basic pattern which has characterized the market for the past ten years. Undoubtedly, this pattern will someday be destroyed and when it is, the implications will be, in our view, to say the least, highly bullish. There is good reason, however, to suspect that it may not be destroyed immediately. The second possible scenario would be the formation of broadened distributional tops which would ultimately call for a decline to somewhere below the levels of early this month. This would be a phenomenon not without historical precedent for it would complete a typical three-leg downswing from the highs of last July, the first down-leg being July-October, the current rally being the second, or up, leg and the third down-leg being a drop from whatever apogee is reached on this rally. The problem with this scenario is that it is hard at the moment to see the distributional patterns that would suggest it. Such patterns could, of course, form, but they are not present at this pOint in time. . … – – The third and'final possibility is cont-inued backing and filling in-the 800-900 range with an eventual breakout on the upside. This is a possibility that we tend to favor,since we think further broadening at the 800-900 level would make the long-awaited upside attack on 900 more plausible when it occurs. -.— It is, in summary, we feel, a time not to be too dogmatic about a forecast and to be open-minded about market evidence as it presents itself. All of the scenarios above have some degree of plausibility, and investment policy at this stage should, we think, concertrate on individual stocks until overall market evidence makes the major trend direction clearer than it is at the present time. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 851. 31 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 90.82 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (10/23/75) 497.08 AWT/lb No ,Iclement or expreSSIOn of opinion or ony other matter here'n contamed IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or ondnec1ly, on offer or Ihe sollcllallon of on offer 10 buy tlon to or sell any security be relloble, we In referred no woy 10 or mentioned The moiler .s presented merely represent or guorontee the occurocy thereof nor for of the the conveenc of the subSCriber slotements mude herelll Any acWTiohnile10wbeebteolieevne the sources of our Informoby the subSCriber should be bosed on hiS own tnvestlgohon and Informotlon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporotlon, and lIs officers or employees, may no, hove, or may loler lake, posltlons or Irodes In respecT to ony seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and suth pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter e.prened In thiS or ony other Issue Jonney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which 's res,stered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give odvltc 10 Its Investment odvlsory and other customers II'ldependently of any slotements mode II'l thiS or In any other Issue Further mformotlon on any security mentioned herein IS ovotloble on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 31, 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 31, 1975

Tabell's Market Letter - October 31, 1975
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMEAICAN STOCK eXCHA.NGE October 31, 1975 What with the travail of New York City and other publicized ills, it is unsurprising that – a certainount'ofpes simis m–shouldbe'Pres ent iwfina ncia 1'markets.,-l'hat-pe s simismc-isrhowever , '- expressing itself in concrete terms in a number of areas one of these areas being short interest on the New York Stock Exchange, which reached an all-time record level at well over 26 million shares last May and, after subsequently backing off, has recently returned tojust under the 25-million-share level. This sharp rise was little noted last summer, since, at that time, trading volume was heavy, and most analysts tend to view short interest in terms of its ratio to average daily volume, the classic short-interest ratio, which is designed to provide a measure of how many days' trading it would take theoretically to cover the existing short position. With trading volume dropping off sharply and the short interest remaining high, however, this ratio moved above the 1. 8 level as of September 15 (figures are recorded from the 15th of the month to the 15th of the month) before dropping off slightly in October. The table below presents all past occasions since January, 1946, when the short- interest ratio has moved to a level of 1. 8 or above. Also shown are the Dow on that date, the Dow approximately six months (125 trading days) later and the percentage change for the period. Date Short Int Ratio DJIA D..HA 61a1g Chg. Date Short Int Ratio DJIA 6DJIA lat Chg. Jun 1947 1.800 175.49 180.76 3.00 Mar 1958 2.214 453.04 518.52 14.45 Sep 1947 2.006 175.30 167.86 -4.24 Apr 1958 2.179 447.58 541.95 21.08 Mar 1948 1.804 167.62 182.52 8.89 May 1958 2.047 457.86 560.92 22.51 Mar 1949 1.931 176.02 179.24 1.83 Jun 1958 1.901 474.77 565.53 19.12 Apr 1949 – ay 1949- 1.837 176.62 182.67 3.43 Ju11958 2''177 f1520''1n9611l714-Sepl95-8 2.299 278.82 591.64 23.56 202'5n,02'6i2691759– Jun 1949 1.854 164.58 193.63 17.65 Oct 1962 1.985 589.69 710.92 20.56 Ju11949 2.405 173.48 199.39 14.94 Aug 1966 2.030 834.85 853.34 2.21 Aug 1949 1.933 178.97 199.62 11.54 Oct 1966 2.173 771.71 866.59 12.29 Sep 1949 2.310 182.16 203.47 11.70 Nov 1966 2.211 815.31 885.80 8.65 Oct 1949 1.913 186.36 207.78 11.49 Sep 1967 2.044 933.48 840.09-10.00 Nov 1949 1.867 187.98 215.05 14.40 Nov 1967 2.032 855.18 898.98 5.12 Mar 1950 1.927 207.46 218.10 5.13 Feb 1968 1.868 839.23 900.36 7.28 Apr 1951 2.084 256.18 274.34 7.09 Mar 1968 2.205 837.55 956.68 14.22 Dec 1951 2.144 265.48 260.10 -2.03 Sep 1968 1.913 917.21 927.30 1.10 Jan 1952 1.982 270.46 268.03 -0.90 Sep 1969 1.889 830.45 772.11 -7.03 Mar 1952 1.909 264.43 273.84 3.56 Jul1970 1.895 711.66 844.19 18.62 Jul1953 1.854 268.75 286.72 6.69 Aug 1970 2.075 710.84 885.34 24.55 Oct 1953 1.942 271.22 311.78 14.95 Apr 1974 1.851 843.79 648.08-23.19 Sep 1975 1.882 803.19 As is quite clearly shown, the current level of short interest has some historical significance. It has occurred only 39 times in 358 months, and on 33 of those 39 occasions, the market was higher six months later. In the entire record there are only three serious false signals on the part of the indicator, all of them, interestingly enough, occurring fairly recently. One was in September, 1967, when the indicator flashed just as the market was going into an intermediate-term daedclAinperiwl, ithin.the context 1974, oacurred of.the 1966 ;'hen the in -68 bull market. The dicatorfJashed- the en dothofeartbweoarinmsatarknceetsb,u tS'leepdtethmafbb'eore,a'1r9m6'9a,'r'–'I ket's end by some six to nine months. For the remaining periods the results shown in the table speak for themselves. It will be interesting to see whether the present instance is another example of the recently-more-frequent false signals or whether it turns out to be truly a harbinger of higher prices. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 833.67 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 88.86 Cumulative Index (10/30/75) 489.53 AWT/jb ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL NOTE The figures in the table differ slightly from those reported in BARRON'S and other publications where average daily volume is based on settlement dates. The figures above are computed on trade dates. 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