Viewing Month: July 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 03, 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 03, 1975

Tabell's Market Letter - July 03, 1975
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08!540 DIVISION OF' MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGe July 3, 1975 As the Fourth of July approaches, comments are beginning to emerge on the traditional summer ..- – rally. Long-time readers of this letter will be aware that we have examined this phenomenon at the O!iSet'oftfie'pasCtwo inimmerTalfdexpressedii mlld'degree of sKepflcfsrtnbout If''''The f611owlng- table, updated through 1974, shows the number of advances and declines for the one and two month periods ended each month of each year from 1926 through 1974 together with the average percentage change for the period. ONE-MONTH PERIODS TWO-MONTH PERIODS Ending Month Advances Declines Avg. Chg. Advances Declines Avg. Chg. January 32 17 0.70 32 17 2.14 February 27 22 -0.04 27 22 0.65 March April 26 23 -0.23 27 22 0.82 23 26 -0.38 29 20 0.68 May June July August September October November December Total 25 24 -0.83 29 20 0.23 23 26 0.81 23 26 -0.07 33 16 2.13 31 18 2.89 32 17 1. 55 35 14 3.84 21 28 -1. 36 . 29 20 0.15 27 22 -0.29 24 25 -1. 60 28 21 0.37 30 19 0.12 E –.!. 338 250 1. 33 0.41 –l1. E 1. 74 344 244 0.86 The table shows the action of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average in every one-month and two-month period from 1926 to 1974. For each period the number of instances when the market advanced and de' -Cilned is- -s!lown,' regetner with-thea-verage percenfage'Chah-ge-for the -p-erlo(l'–Aprellmlnarytookat'the table, Indeed, supports the notion of a probable summer rally. – The average monthly advance for the Dow over the period has been .41, whereas the average performance in July is an advance of 2.13, more than five times as great. Likewise, the average advance of 3.84 for the two months ended August is four times larger than the average two-month advance. It would, indeed, appear that the expectation of an advancing market during July and August has some solid grounding In fact. Having made this statement, however, a few doubts must be raised. The first factor which needs to be pointed out is that a large part of the high average advance for the summer period rests on the accident of the 1932 bottom's having occurred at the end of June. Thus, July and August of that year produced the largest two-month advance in stock-market history, an astounding 70 rise. If this sin- gle year is eliminated from consideration, the results for July and August are much closer to normal. Secondly, while it is true that July and August do show significant pluralities of advancing months over declining months, It must -be remembered that advancing periods tend to outnumber declining ones over the 49 years by almost three to two. When standard tests of statistical significance are applied, the period with the clearest seasonal action Is the month of December, which is why this letter has always emphasized the importance of the year-end rally. Likewise, the tendency toward a declining market In September Is statistically more significant than that of a rise In July or August. Interesting- ly enough, none of the other months show any discernible seasonal pattern whatsoever. Lastly, in looking for seasonal patterns, it is wise to examine the most recent data to see if it seems to be deviating from the past and, indeed, this Is apparently the case. The nine years between 1966 and 1974 have produced three rallies and six declines in July and five rallies and four declines In -August, but'the tWo-monthperiod entled August ha-s produced'four rallies 'and-five declines with an- average percentage change of -1 . Even the familiar December rally rappears to have lost Its recent reliability, and, interestingly enough, a new seasonal tendency, not heretofore apparent, seems to be emerging — that of a decline in May-June, although, it must be admitted, the bull market of 1975 was strong enough to override this tendency. Every May, from 1965 through 1974, with the single excep- . tion of 1972, has produced a declining market, and all two-month periods ending 10 June showed declinE in the 1965-1974 period. The moral of the whole exerCise, we suppose, Is that the stock market is a difficult and changing beast, and, while certain seasonal tendencies are apparent, they constitute only one factor In what Is invariably a highly complex equation. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p. Iii.) 871. 40 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 94.35 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (7/2/75) 538.91 AWT/jb No statement or expression of opInion Of cny other moHer herem contolned IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, directly or mdnec11y, on offer or Ihc 50lu;llollon of on offer fa bvy or sell any security referred 10 or men/loned The matter IS prescnred merely for the converllnce of foe subscriber Wulc we believe Ihe sources of our Informa. t10n to be reliable, we In no way represent or glJorontee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mode herein Any cc;1lon 10 be token by the subscriber should be bosed on hiS own investigation cnd Informotlon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, 0 a corporatIon, and lIs officers or employees, may now hove, or may loter tole, po,ltlons or trades In reSpect 10 any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or cny future Issue, end such pOSlhon may be different from any views now or hereafter exp.essed rn this or any other ISsue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc. which IS registered With the SEC as on rnvestment adVISor, may give advle to 15 rnvestment odvn.ory and othel customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on ony seCUriTy mentIOned herein IS ovollable on requeU

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 11, 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 11, 1975

Tabell's Market Letter - July 11, 1975
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TABELLiS MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISiON OF MEMBER NEW VOAK STOCK EXCHANGE. 'Ne MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGe July 11, 1975 The stock 'market was a few days late in firing off its Fourth of July fireworks. The period before and,.afterthe Fourth itselCwa,spe!1t,.intElgA,ln,the,sort — – -o- f –t..h.- ing tt l-a-t- h-as tended — -t-o- ,p-a s-s- – for- -a—— – '5 correction in the current dynamic bull market. Starting on July 1, the market declined on four out of ' – five days, the Dow actually managing to post a tenpolnt drop on Monday following the Fourth-of-July weekend. By July 8, at a closing low of 8S7. 79, all plausible objectives of a miniscule distributional top formed had been reached,and the market reversed itself on a dime, advancing 14 points on Wednesday and as much as 8 pOints on Thursday before giving ground in late Thursday and early Friday trading. At Its Intra-day peak of 884.46 on Thursday, the index was within pennies of its July I peak. As the Dow returned to Its old peak, it was joined by a reasonably large number of indi- vidual Issues. Wednesday saw 203 New York Stock Exchange issues reaching new high territory for the year,and 260 issues reached new peaks In Thursday's trading. We have drawn attention in past Issues of this letter to the fact that a declining number of new highs and an increasing number of new lows is generally a precursor to major topside reversals. This is a phenomenon that is most emphatically not occurring at the moment. Of course, what is often very Interesting about the new-high list at a time like the pres- ent, when the Dow is flirting with new highs, is Its obverse. The fact that 260 Issues reached new highs on Thursday is also indicative of the fact that, of the 1848 issues that traded on that day, 1588 did not post new highs. Very often a study of the issues which are not achieving new peaks in a bull market is as rewarding as a study of those that are. One group of conspicuous absentees from the new high list Is the vestal virgins, the growth stock favorites of the 1970-73 period. These Issues have, as a matter of fact, tended, in gen- eral, to demonstrate somewhat Inferior performance ever since mid-May. The advance over the past – rew i'iiOnthsna s 'c-OriSfSted -(Wflvs eporate-'1nt'ermedlatepea'ks7'the 'fiTstinmid April,- anotherln-mid- – , May, a third in early June, a fourth at the end of June, and.finally, the recent high. Many of the growth Issues reached their high as far back as the April peak, and a great many have conspicuously failed to make new highs since. The following table shows the approximate April-May high, the approx- Imate May-June high and Thursday's peak for 13 of the favorite growth Issues. The discrepancy be- tween their action and that of the Dow is fairly obvious. April-May High May-June High High 7/10/75 DJIA 868.51 884.86 884.46 Avon Products 51 1/4 481/2 477/8 Burroughs Corp 110 106 108 1/4 Coca Cola Co 92 93 1/2 92 Disney Walt Prod 55 3/4 52 54 3/8 Eastman Kodak Co 110 106 lOS 1/8 IBM 227 3/8 215 209 1/4 International Flavor Fragrance 35 1/8 33 5/8 32 3/8 Johnson &Johnson 97 7/8 99 1/2 96 1/2 McDonalds Corp U 1/2 58 567/8 Polaroid Corp 34 1/2 33 5/8 40 3/8 Proctor & Gamble 100 3/4 98 3/4 99 1/4 Sears Roebuck Co 73 3/4 –. Xerox Corp ,.-.–. . . 815/8,– , 73 1/2 74 3/8 70 lZ2 -,,-1..21/ .. What is happening, of course, Is that a great many of the growth issues are now reaching the area of heavy overhead supply from their original 1973-74 tops. Many of them have made impres- sive progress toward the formation of bases which may ultimately take them through this supply, but what is still unclear is the shape that these bases will take. If the supply is heavy enough, It could conceivably lead to some of these issues testing their 1974 lows. There Is no technical Indication as yet that such is the case, but if the supply does, indeed, prove formidable enough to reverse these Issues Into minor downtrends, the correctlonary process could be moderately severe. NOTE The above comments are based on technical factors. Further information on all companies Is available on request. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 877.11 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 95.12 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (7/10/75) 549.87 AWT/jb No statement or expression of opinion or any other moIler hereIn contaIned IS, or I to be deemed to be, dIrectly or IndHectly, an offer or the sol,c,tat,on of on offer to buy OT ;!e!l any ,comfy referred to or mentIoned The motter I, presented merely for the conver-Ience af Ihe subsc(lber Whlle ….e bel,eve the ICurces of our mformolion to be reliable, we In no way repreent or guarantee the accurocy thereof nor of the statements mude hereIn Any oellon to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hIS own InveshgolLon and Information Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, os a CorporatIon, and Its off.cers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, poslt.ons or trades In respect to any !oecunlles mentioned 10 thIS or any future luue, and such POSitIon may be dIfferent from any VIews now or hereafter expu!ssed ,n dllS or any other ,nue Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, whIch IS regIstered wllh the SEC as on Investment adVIsor, moy gIve advlc-e to lIs Investment adVIsory and other C'Ustomers mdependently of any statements mode In thIS or In any other Issue Further InformatIon on any sccmty mentIoned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 18, 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 18, 1975

Tabell's Market Letter - July 18, 1975
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——————————————————————–.(. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 081540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( EXCHANGE July 18, 1975 Often unnoticed, a process of rotation and correction goes on, even in the most dynamic cO.,. of bull'inarkeG—Teinaays-ago;- on'JUly-9;–tJ1eStandaid-and-Poor' s500'Stuck-IndexNasat.94-;80-;–hav- ing advanced 43.7 from a late December low of 65.96. Of 95 individual Industry Group Indices in- cluded in the 500, however, only 35 were at new highs on July 9. These groups are listed below. Atomic Energy Foods, Meat-packers Real Estate Automobile Forest Products Retail Stores, Department Auto Parts, Orig. equip. Hotel-Motel Retail Stores, variety Building Materia Is, Cement Leisure Time Shoes Building Materials, Heating Machinery, Construction Textile Products Building Materials, Roof, Wallbd. Machinery, Special Tire and Rubber Goods Conglomerates Meta 1 Fabricating Toys Containers, Paper Motion Pictures Natural Gas, Distributors Electronic Offshore Drilling Natural Gas, Pipe line Electrical, fuusehold appliances Oil Producers Insurance, Property Electronics Pollution Control Investment Companies Foods, Canned Ra ilroad Equipment Sixty other groups, however, were not at new highs, some having made their high as early as March and having subsequently declined as much as 20. As a matter of interest, the listing below sets out these 60 groups together with he date of their high and the percentage decline to the subsequent low. The internal correction that has been going on, even in the most dynamiC bull market in years is, indeed, evident. 1- – ,. Group Date-of-Htgh..,Dec. Group .Date of High Dec. Railroads Apr 30 – 4.19 Machinery & Serv. ,oil well Jun 25 – 3.72 Auto Parts Aerospace Air Freight Air Transport Jun 4 Jun 25 Jul 2 Mar 12 – 5. 83 Machinery, Steam gen. – 2.72 Metals Miscellaneous – 2.43 Mobile Homes – 18.68 Office EqUipment Jun 25 Jul 2 Jun 4 May 14 – 5.86 – 0.52 – 15.27 – 10.49 Aluminum Jul 2 – 2.02 Oil, Domestic Jul 2 – 0.43 Auto Trucks & Part Jul 2 – 1. 33 Oil, IntI. Jun 25 – 2.49 Beverages, Brewers Jun 4 – 11.93 Paper May 14 – 11.10 Beverages, Distillers Mar 5 – 15.03 Publishing May 14 – 8.33 Beverages, Soft drinks May 14 – 5.00 Radio-Television Jun 25 – 1.56 Building Materials ,Air cond. May 14 – 17.52 Restaurants May 14 – 15.38 Chemicals May 14 – 9.35 Retails Stores, Discount Mar 26 – 22.29 Coal (bituminous) Jun 25 – 3.05 Retail Stores, Food chain Jun 4 – 2.49 Confectionery May 28 – 8.92 Retail Stores, Mail order Jun 25 – 1.83 Containers, Metal & Glass Mar 5 – 8.10 Soaps Jun 4 – 5.39 Copper Apr 16 – 9.09 Steel Apr 30 – 13.82 Cosmetics May 14 – 7.88 Sugar, Beet Apr 23 – 20.25 Drugs Jun 25 – 2.22 Textiles, Apparel Jun 25 – 0.46 Electrical Equipment Jul 2 – 0.57 Textiles, Synthetic Jul 2 – 0.67 .Finance Companies , -c Finance, Small loans Jun 25 Jun 25 o2 .17 – 2.74 Tobacco-Cigarettes 'i'ruckers- – – — May 14 —-'Jur(25- – 6.99 . – 321' Foods, Dairy Jun 4 – 3.19 Vending Machines Jun 11 – 4.96 Foods, P,ackage Jun 25 – 0.40 Real Estate Inv. Tr. Jan 29 – 19.81 Gold Mining Jun 25 – 1. 56 Electric Power Jun 25 – 4.25 Home Furnishings Jun 25 – 2.92 Telephone May 14 – 6.25 Hospital Supplies May 14 – 10.25 Banks, New York Jun 25 – 0.94 Lead & Zinc Jun 25 – 3.21 Banks, Outside New York Jun 25 – 1.25 Machine Tools May 14 – -6.45 Savings & Loan Assoc. Jun 4 – 11. 44 Machinery (agric) May 14 – 10.18 Insurance, Life Jun 25 – 1. 94 Machinery I lndust. Jul 2 – 2.83 Insurance, Mllti-line Jun 25 – 3.65 Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 859.67 ANTHONY W. TABELL S & P Compo (1200 p. m.) 93.14 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cum. Index (7/17/75) 553.02 AWT/jb onlNo statement or exprenlon of opIniOn or ony other matter herem contolned 1, or ' to be dee'T1ed to be, directly or mdlredly, on offer or the solICItation of on offer to buy or lell ecunly referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the converlene; of the subscriber Whlle,joJe believe the sources of our Informa- han to be rei lab e, we In no way represent or guerantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action 10 be token by the subscriber should be bosed on hIS own inVestigation and Informahon Janney Montgomery SCali, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later toe, positions or trades In resped to any securIties mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter epressed In thIS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, wh.ch IS registered With Ihe SEC os an Investment adVisor, may give odvlce to Its Investment adVisory and other CUstomers Independently of any statements mode .n thiS or In any other Issue Further informatIOn on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 25, 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 25, 1975

Tabell's Market Letter - July 25, 1975
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— j-' , , T , .. , – ,—,—–,- —— TABELL'S. ,! MARKET ri LETTER ,/ 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YOAK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBEA AMEAICAN S'tOCK EXCHANGE '.. July 25, 1975 '- –…. One measure – of-'howfar the-market4s-into'a-bul1'cydeis,the- extent to which .short— term declines tend to incite nervousness. By that standard, the amount of nervousness inspired by six straight days of decline through Wednesday, plus a generally weak market on Thursday even though the Dow closed up, suggests that the upswing is not yet in a mature stage. Nonetheless, the six days of decline did, in fact, take place and perhaps it is worthwhile to examine them and try to place them in perspective. In numerical terms, the drop amounted to 5.12 on the Dow-Jones Industrials and 5.79 on the S & P 500. It marks the third correction of slightly over 5 that has taken place since the major upswing began last December and its behavior to date, at least, is suspiciously like the others. The first such correction took place between March 17 and April 7 and amounted to 5.55 on the Dow and 6.58 on the S & P, slightly more severe than the percentage declines posted to date on the current drop. The shape of that decline consisted of five days of a fairly sharp drop, followed by a three-day rally, followed by five more days of decline to a low that was fractionally below the earlier one. Such a shape is not unusual at a short-term bottom and, indeed, might occur in the present case. The second interruption in the major advance took place between May 14 and May 29 and was slightly less severe than this one, amounting to 5.09 on the Dow and 2.8 on the S & P. This one lasted ten days in which the downward trend largely prevailed except for a two- di!Yrallyabout ha Ifway through . Thusunles stheJlresenLdeclinewor.sensit .istotallyconsls,.-,–…. – – …. – . L ' , — – – -r tent with the experience of corrections in the 1975 bull market to date. It is also worthwhile comparing the three declines in terms of breadth and of our Cumulative Index of all stocks. The first drop, that of March-April, was the only one on which our Cumulative Index performed worse than the major averages, dropping 6.56, about the same as the S & P. In the May drop, it significantly outperformed the other indices, dropping only 1. 85 and bottoming five days before the Dow and the S ; P 500. In the present instance, It has declined 5.61 to date, about equaling the major averages. About the same results are shown by the breadth index, which significantly outperformed the averages in May, dropping some 3 1/2 points. Its current performance is slightly better than in the March-April decline where it dropped 11.26 pOints versus 10.63 points currently. As we noted before, the decline could, of course, worsen, thus invalidating the above comparisons. However, for the time being, at least, we consider this less than likely. At the week's lows, both the Dow and the S & P had reached the downSide objectives of their small tops and were at fairly strong support levels, 850-820 in terms of the Dow and 95-90 in terms of the S & P which, as of Thursday, had dropped to the lower part of its support area. Were these support areas to be decisively penetrated, lower prices could, in fact, be foreseen.but there is no reason at the moment to suggest that this is likely to take place. .,. z ………… – – – ';'-t.– -' The significant story told by minor declines is often signalization of shifts in lead- – ership, and the poor performance of the first-tier growth stocks on this drop suggests that these issues may have, at best, entered into a consolidation phase and may, in many cases, test their 1974 lows. We continue to believe that this could take place without too much effect on the over- all market. The bulk of stocks remain in uptrends and show very little sign of distribution, and, until significant distributional patterns begin to form in a larger number of issues, we do not think that downside activity is likely to be serious. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 835.11 S ; P Compo (1200 P.m.) 89.40 Cumulative Index (7/24/75) 528.16 AWT/jb ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No stotement or ewpresslon of opmlon or ony other maHer herein contolned 15, or IS o be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer or the sollcltollon of on offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter 15 presen'ed merely for the conVerlenc of the subSCriber While -He believe the sources of our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or glJarantee the occlJracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Ally action to be taen by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Informollon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporahon, and Its officers or employees, may no have, or may later toke, POSitions OT trades In respect to any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any futlJre ISsue, and such POSition may be different from ony views now or hereafter e .. pressed In thiS or any other ISlJe Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, whICh IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVISor, may give adVice 10 Its Investment adVisory and other customers Independently of any statements mode rn It-liS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herein IS avollable on request

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