Viewing Month: November 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 07, 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 07, 1975

Tabell's Market Letter - November 07, 1975
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YOAK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBEA AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE November 7, 1975 foftr.pnding thelaltecparLoiQctQber.andearlYNoyemberdeclining irom.its late October high the -stock market rallied in th-e- latte- part of this ';eek's trading and moved up toward- a renewed attack on that high. In terms of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, a peak of 855.16 had been reached on October 23, this being followed by a dip to a closing low of 825.72 late Mon- day. The remainder of the week saw an irregularly upward move to a Thursday close of 840.92. Our own reading of the market's probable short and intermediate-term direction would be that, over the short term, the market is likely to go lower, although not, in all probability, that much lower, and that, over the intermediate term, it is likely to move higher — again, in all probability, not that much higher. This thinking is engendered by the fact that the tops formed in the last two weeks of October on most indices suggest lows moderately below those reached early this week and by the fact that the upside implications of the July-September base likewise suggest higher levels than have already been attained, implications which, as we have pointed out in past issues of this letter, suggest at the least a test of last summer's highs. This sort of thinking is also supported by the general behavior pattern of the market since last summer. Regarding this behavior, two facts are particularly relevant. The first is that the 55-day, July-October decline amounted to an 11 drop in terms of the Dow, and the second is that it is now 88 trading days since the DOw-Jones Industrial Average last made a new high. These two facts, looked at in the light of history, suggest two conclusions. The first that the market may well make a new high above the July level but that that high is unlikely to be significantly above the July peak, and, secondly, that this whole process may have a good deal longer to go in point of time. . II one is willing to define a decline of greater than 71/2 as being intermediate-term in scope, the following table presents some relevant facts for the six major bull markets since 1949. The first two columns show the start date and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average on that date for each bull market. The second three columns show the date, the Dow and the number of trading days to the high prior to the first 7 1/2-or-greater correction. The next three columns show the date, the Dow and the number of trading days later that the final bull-market high occurred, and the last column shows the percentage of the total move that had taken place at the first high. FIRST HIGH FINAL HIGH of Date DJIA Date DJIA No. Days Date DTIA No.Days move at first high 6/13/49 161. 60 6/12/50 228.36282 1/5/53 293.79 705 50 9/14/53 255.49 9/23/55 487.45 510 8/2/56 520.95 216 87 10/22/57 419.79 8/3/59 678.10 448 12/13/61 734.91 595 82 6/26/62 535.76 5/14/65 939.62 726 2/9/66 995.15 187 88 10/7/66 744.32 0/25/67 943.08 242 12/3/68 985.21 276 83 5/26/70 631.16 4/28/71 950.82 234 1/11/73 1051.70 431 76 The results are, indeed, rather interesting. As the final column clearly shows, with the single exception of 1949-53, anywhere from 76 to 88 of the total move had taken place at the hlgh prior to the first intermediate-term correction. If the 304 points which the market gained from its December, 1974 low of 577.60 to its July high of 881. 81 constitute 80 of the —t-pootian-lt mov-e s and, 'i-t would -th-en-be posslbly, a good udnerae-la lliesstisc… t.o. ' e x- p e c-t .t h a t -' h-i g h to be ex ce e- de d by –' m-u-chmo-r-e-than75 However, it is also interesting to note that all of the previous bull markets under study had a good deal longer life in terms of time after the first lntermediate-term drop. The shortest continuation was for nine months, from May, 1965, through February, 1966, but, as the table shows, other continuations have lasted for as long as two years. Thus, the available figures would suggest that, while the upside dynamics for the market are unlikely to be as great from here on out as they were in the first half of 1975, a good deal of time may lie ahead before serious general market weakness can be expected. Dow-Jones Industrials 11200 p. m.) 836.67 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 89.43 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (11/6/75) 492.20 AWT/jb No slatement or expression of opmion or any other motter herein contOlned IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or Indirectly, on offer or the soliCitation of on offer to buy Or sell ony security referred to or mentioned The mOiler IS presented merely for the conver'!cnc!; of the subscrrber While we believe the sources of our Informa tlon to be reltoble, we m no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude he'em Any action to be token by the subscnber should be bosed on hiS own mvestlgalton and Informotlon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, pOSitions or trades In respect to any SeCurities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position moy be different from any views now or hereafter expressed m Ihls or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, which IS regiStered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVisory and athel customers Independently of any statements mode In Ihls or In any other Issue Further Informallan on any security mentioned herein IS available on request ——- —————-

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 14, 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 14, 1975

Tabell's Market Letter - November 14, 1975
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-. TABELL'S MARKET LETTER ——– —— – 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK eXCHANGE INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCI( eXCHANGE November 14, 1975 . vt hVllQ99J-l'-asUgsy of .!his.letter..!h fac.!!hat;.ketadership has been shifting dramatically,and that this shift in teaaership coincided with the July nigh in the -market. For the period — December 24, 1974-July 9, 1975, the S & P 500 advanced from 66.87 to 94.80, then moved irregularly recovering by last Wednesday to 91.19. Inthe advancing phase of the market, no fewer than 12 industrial groups, as measured by S & P group indices, advanced 100 or more with the worst acting group scoring an 11 advance. From the July high through last week, the ten best-acting groups scored advances ranging from 11 to 23,and the worst performance was a 36 decline. What was Interesting, however, Is the fact that In many cases the best-acting groups in the December-July advance have tended to perform rather poorly subsequently and vice versa. Of the ten best- acting groups from December to July, only one enjoyed the same status in the July-November perlod,and five were in the bottom half of the list as far as performance was concerned. Likewise, of the ten best- acting groups In the most recent period, no fewer than six had been in the bottom half of the list perform- ance-wise In the first half of the year. As a matter of interest, the following table lists the 95 Industry groups under study followed by, to the left of the slash, Its performance rank for the December-july period, and to the right of the slash, the comparable performance rank from the july high through last Wednesday. Railroads 95/35 Foods-Canned Foods 77/22 Real Estate 5/91 Auto Parts 50/56 Foods-Dairy Prod. 70/ 9 Restaurants 9/16 Aerospace 25/70 Foods-Meat Pack. 54/32 Retail Stores-Department 20/23 Air Freight 18/63 Foods-Packaged Food 56/ 7 Retail Stores-Discount 44/11 Air Transport 40/37 Forest Products 31/55 Retail Stores-Food Chains 56/44 Aluminum 39/78 Gold Mining 91/94 Retail Stores-Mail Order 47/33 Atomic Energy 1-,,,AutomabHe . 17/87 Home Furnishings 41i!'l-0. Hos-pitalSupplies 51/18 Retail Stores-Variety 38/19 nL45Sho!;,s . 6/ . Auto Parts-Orig.Eq. 42/3 Hotel-Motel 3/15 Soaps 81/42 – Auto Trucks & Part 63/77 Lead & Zinc 33/36 Steel 60/54 Beverages-Brewers 27/93 Leisure Time 4/53 Sugar-Beet Refiners 84/14 Beverages-Distillers 88/41 Machine Tools 49/71 Textiles-Apparel Mfrs. 23/ 1 Beverages-Soft Drinks 22/29 Machinery (Agric) 94/ 5 Textiles-Synthetic Fib. 67/ 2 Bldg. Mat-Air Cond. 24/84 Machinery-Const-Mat!. HA 53/26 Textile Products 28/17 Bldg. Mat Cement 21 90 Machinery-Industrial 72/58 TlTe & Rubber Goods 48/12 Bldg.Mat-Heat.Plumbing 16/64 Machinery & Serv-Oil Well 75/83 Tobacco-Cigarettes Mfg. 90/34 Bldg. Mat-Roof-Wallbrd 34/76 Machinery-Specialty 11/67 Toys 8/40 Chemicals 52/30 Machinery-Steam Gen. 7/92 Truckers 37/ 8 Coal (Bltum) 14/89 Metal Fabricating 32/60 Vending Machines 30/73 Confectionery 35/24 Metals Miscellaneous 61/65 Real Est. Inv. Tr. 45/79 Conglomerates 12/50 Mobile Homes 41/85 Electric Power 71/20 Contalners-Mtl. & Gl. 93/13 Motion Pictures 2/74 Natural Gas-Distrlb. 79/59 Containers-Paper 66/28 Office Equipment 80/31 Natural Gas-Pipe Lines 74/69 Copper 87/75 Offshore Drilling 64/95 Telephone 89/27 Cosmetics 29/43 Oil-Crude Producers 76/82 Banks-N. Y. City 62/86 Drugs 85/62 Oil-Domestic Inte. 83/66 Banks-Outside N. Y. City 57/48 Electrical Equipment 36/46 Oil-IntI. Integrat. 69/38 Savings & Loan Assoc. 68/57 Electric-Electron. Maj. Cos. 26/52 Paper 55/ 6 Insurance-Life Electrical-Hhld.App. Electronics–' — – – – . . –.10/21 Pollution Control 19/72 – Publishing 1/88 Insurance-Multi-Line 13/25 -Insurance–Prop!Llab. 82/68 78/51 …. … 86/49 Finance Cos. 92/81 Radio-Telev. Brdcasters 15/61 Investment Cos. 65/47 Finance-Small Loan Co. 59/39 Railroad Equipment 43/80 Dow-jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 850.76 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 90.89 Cumulative Index (11/13/75) 492.64 AWT/jb ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No Iolemenl or expresSion of ClpiniOn or any other matter herein contained IS, Clr IS 10 be dee'Tled to be, directly or mdnec1ly, an offer or the SOllCllollon of on offer to buy or ,ell any security referred lQ or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the conVef'lenC5 of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Informa- tion to be rellCble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Invesllgahon and information Janney Montgomery SCali, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may laler lake, positions or trades In respect to any secuntles mentioned In thiS or any fulure ISSUtl, and such POSition may btl different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any olher Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVisory and other C'ustomers Independently of any statements mode JI1 n))S or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 21, 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 21, 1975

Tabell's Market Letter - November 21, 1975
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08S40 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCI( EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGe November 21, 1975 A basic raison d'etre for technical analysis is the fact that there are two distinct and separate inputs to a stock price. The first of these is available fundamental information, both of a factu- al and a forecast nature. The second is investor expectations, which are not homogenous and may vary …. -widely over tiri'e. Sfnc-ettwo';lldbe difficult, if not impossible;'to-poflive-sfOrs t'o'ascertaiiithe state' – of those expectations, the only recourse available is to study their expression in price action. Thus, the profession of technical analysis. No judgment is made by the technician as to whether self-evident expectations are correct or incorrect. What is interesting, however, is that they are often widely at variance with accepted fore- casts. Thus, for example, stock prices enjoyed one of the sharpest six-month rises in history in the first half of 1975 in the face of an ongoing recession with no bottom clearly in sight, and when, at mid- 1975, the recession's bottom became apparent, they began moving sideways. The purpose of today's exercise is to attempt to draw a few generalities as to the current state of investor expectations and the areas in which those expectations are finding focus. The following two lists of industry groups are based on intermediate-term relative strength comparisons covering, roughly. the past thirty weeks with more recent data given heavier weight. With- out gOing into details of computation, it is possible, simply, to say that the groups in the left-hand list, labeled stronger, have been acting better than the market and the groups in the right-hand list, some- what worse than the market. This contrasting action seems to shed light on investor thinking in a number of areas. Stronger Weaker Apparel Hotel-Motel Aluminum Gold Appliances Meat Packing Banks Life Insurance Autos Motion Pictures Bldg. Material Mobile Homes Chemicals Paper Bus. Machines Offshore Drilling 1…. ,…..Dept..Stp.!esS.h)jol.le2!si—- C'-0a'!I O!2iI;;.';Crude Producers Food Food Chains Synthetic Fibers Variety Stores Copper Drugs R. E. 1. f. Savings & Loan Grocers Utilities Finance Cos. Horne Furnish. Energy. Included in the left-hand list are a number of groups which, at first glance, appear to have absolutely nothing in common, Autos, Chemicals, Food Chains, Hotel-Mltel and Utilities, and, yet, they all share a common thread — the fact that in one way or another, they are beneficiaries of lower fuel prices. On the other hand, in the-list of groups that have been acting worse than the market, obviously such industries as Coal, Crude Oil Producers and Offshore Drilling would be affected detrimentally by widely-available lower-priced oil. This phenomenon is especially interesting since no one that we know of is, indeed, forecasting lower oil prices. Yet, such an expectation seems to be built into the marketplace. Consumer Spending. Forecasts as to outlook for consumer spending in 1976 vary wide- ly, and there are broad differences of opinion. The stock market, however, apparently suffers from no such dichotomy. Apparel, Appliances, Department Stores, Food, Grocers, Horne Furnishings, Shoes. Synthetic Flbers and Variety Stores are all areas of industry that would benefit from a sharp upsurge in consumer spending. Yet on the other hand, the market is currently telling us that one area in which it does not expect increased consumer spending is in the home building area with Building Material stocks and, concurrently, Mobile Homes, showing below-average action. Basic Industries. In contrast with the improving outlook for consumer goods, stock buyers apparently have some doubt about the capital goods outlook, as witness the weakness in Aluminum, Copper, -etc. – These problems, of course, may be -only ,temporary,since It is difflcul!,to.see how.a sus- . – tained consumer-spending surge could fail to spill over into the capital-goods area. Finance. The market is apparently still expressing some skepticism about companies essentially in the money bUSiness, whether due to New York City's financial troubles or whatever reason. As can be seen, Finance Companies, Life Insurance, Savings and Loans and Banks are conspicuous by their presence in the list of weaker groups. . High PiE Ratios. Skepticism apparently continues as regards stocks with relatively high price-earnings ratios. Such industries as Drugs and Business Machines are conspicuous by their presence in the weaker list. Note The above comments are based on technical factors. Further information on all companies is available on request. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 840.29 S & P Camp. (1200 p.m.) 89.38 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (!l/20/75) 487.23 AWT/jb No statement or expresSion of opmion Or any olher matter herein contained IS, or 15 to be deemed to be, directly Of indirectly, on offer or the SOllcltOllon of on offer to buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The motter IS presented merely for the conver-Iencc of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our mforma tlon to be rehable, we m no way represent or guarantee Ihe accuracy thereof nor of the statement, mude herem Any actio to be lal-en by the sub;cber should be based on hu own mvestlgotlon ond ,nforma/lon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, positions or trades In respect to any seCUrllleS menl10ned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posillon may be different from ony Views now or hereafter expressed 10 thiS or any other Iss.ve Janney Montgomery Scolt, tnc , which IS registered wllh the SEC as on mvestment adVisor, may give adVice to lIS mvestment adVISOry and othel C'\Jslomers Independently of ony stalements mode In thIS or In ony other Issue further ,nformaHon on any secunly mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 28, 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 28, 1975

Tabell's Market Letter - November 28, 1975
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER – 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORI( STOel( EXCHANGe, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE We have spoken in this space in the past about the stock market's compulsive need for events, an event being defined as a plausible explanation of why the market did what it was probably going to do in the first place. We have observed such events over the years and have found that there are a number of criteria common to most of them. These criteria may be summarized as follows. 1) The event should be assured of continuing news coverage, at least on the financial pages, and better still, on the front pages, of the nation's press. 2) It should be something capable of evoking wide differences of opinion and susceptible of analysis which leads in diametrically opposite directions. 3) The event should be peripherally related to the world of finance, but 4) its relationship to the stock market should be tenuous, at best, and probably non-existent. Now, judged by the criteria above, it becomes readily apparent that New York City's financial troubles provide, perhaps, the best stock market event to come along, perhaps in de- cades. Those troubles are probably even superior to the old excuses of changes in interest rates or the rate of inflation which we have been accustomed, over the past few years, to see used as excuses for the market's move in one direction or another. It is, thus, unsurprising to see the market as it did at the end of this week, move up in response to the New York State tax pack- 1ageandthe,prQspect…oLashorJ'-JermsoJ\ltiontjLtheC.ityscrisJ' Now, we, for one, agree that the market is probably headed higher over the intermediate term. However, it is not, in our view, headed higher due to whatever band-aid, federal or otherwise, may be applied to the festering sore of New York City's municipal finances. It is, rather, headed higher for a number of reasons relating more directly to the supply-demand forces which actually move prices. To begin with, the best available evidence now suggests that the trading range in which the market held between late July and early November constitutes an accumulation base for, at least, an attack on the summer high. Secondarily, at Thanksgiving, we are approaching that period when the market has its absolutely strongest seasonal tendency to move ahead — the time of the familiar year-end rally which, entirely conceivably, may have begun with last Friday's closing low of 840.76. With this prospect in view, however, a number of phenomena, troubling to the mar- ket analyst, must be kept in mind. Included among them is the occurrence of an intermediate-term market reaction last summer, a phenomenon which has occurred in the past toward the end of bull markets in terms of amplitude, if not in terms of time. Another disturbing factor is the fact that the market is now approaching the top of the cyclical trading range which has tended to contain it ever since the mid-1960's. We confess to some doubt as to whether the bull market, apparently now in its mature stage, possesses sufficient internal dynamics to mount a serious attack On the formidable bastion which apparentlyexists around the 900-950,level. It is these factors, we think, plus other indications of technical health or sickness which may develop throughout December and early 1976, which will be important in trying to forecast the course of the stock market, more important than the shifting vagaries of the solution or non-solution of New York's problems. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 858.00 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 90.93 Cumulative Index (11/26/75) 492.31 AWT/jb ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL No statement or expresSion of opinion or any other moiler herein contolned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, on offer or Ihe sol\cllol10n of on offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the converlence of Ihe subscriber While 'lYt') believe the Ources of our mforme lion to be relloble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any actIon to be token by the subSCriber should be based on hIS own investIgatIon and informatIon Janney Montgomery Seoll, Inc, as a corporatIon, and Its offIcers or employees, may now hove, or may later tae, posltlons or trades In respect to any Secunhes mentIoned In thIS or any future Issue, and such poslilan may be dIfferent from any VIews now or hereafter expressed In thIS or ony other Issue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, whIch IS registered WIth the SEC as an ITlvestment adVIsor, may gIve adVice to ItS Investment adVISOry and olhel customers Independently at any stalements mode In thiS or In ony other Issue Further informatIon on ony secvrlty mentIoned hereIn IS ovmlable on request

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