Tabell’s Market Letter – April 18, 1975

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 18, 1975

Tabell's Market Letter - April 18, 1975
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— TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE fiOAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEM8ER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGe – April 18, 1975 –. -T- h..-e stock market – ' . -.- . reminded us -. – – once more last .– – , – w-.-ee.-k t h-.a-t bul l m' -a r k-e ts be.. ….– ha ve li – k-e- bull – mar-k.-ets..;;. .. …….oc ,- During the latter part of March, the sharp advance from the December lows had suffered its first mod'' erately protracted interruption, declining some 5 1/2 over a sui-day period. There ensued a three- day rally, a six-day ,test of the previous lows, and that was it. The past eight trading days have seen a 76-point advance on the Dow, from a close of 742.88 on April 7th to Thursday's close of 819.46. Many observers, even before last week's rally, have expressed surprise at the velocity of the advance. We have, ourselves, noted that recent events suggest the emergence of a market volatility more reminiscent of the 1930's than the 1950's and 1960's. Yet in a way, it is unsurprising that the advance from the 68Q to the 780 level on the Dow took place over a short period of time — unsurpris- ing in the sense that there was almost total lack of overhead supply between those two points. The following table breaks the range of the Dow for the 1973-74 bear market into 10-point brack- ets and shows, for each 10-polnt range of Dow-Jones closes, the number of days between January 11, 1973, and December 6, 1974, on which the market closed in that range. It also shows the total vol- ume for thos e days. DOW-JONES NO. OF TOTAL DOW-JONES NO. OF TOTAL … RANGE —— – DAYS .. VO-L-U-M-E—- RANGE DAYS VOLUME ——— ———– 570 580 1 15,500,QOO 820 830 18 263,970,00 580 590 3 41,950,0('0 830 840 16 237,260,000 590 600 2 26,200,000 840 850 25 317,870,0;;0 600 610 8 111,96Q,00r 850 860 33 478,920,QOG 610 620 – – -.620–6'30 6 75,850,000 -3-4'3'0'(''O 860 870 8'10–8'30 18 26t,260,000 26-.-364 ,10-.0(lO 630 640 6 84,350,00. 8.0 890 25 355,160,000 640 650 8 133,030,00(; 890 900 20 305,340,000 650 660 14 20r,140,OOO 900 910 15 217,940,0.1(; 660 670 10 158,270,000 910 920 16 242,820,000 670 680 11 178,020,0('0 920 930 17 267,310,0'0 680 690 2 28,2'0,000 930 940 15 240,140,000 690 70n 0 0 940 950 14 234,030,00( 70r. 710 1 15,690,OOfl 950 960 19 303,550,000 710 720 1 1,650,OO 960 970 20 3 .. 4,370,000 720 730 2 25,490.01)\ 970 980 21 349,790,000 73n 740 2 21.640,Qon 980 990 5 87,920,00 740 750 1 11,750.000 990 -10O', 5 86,270,000 750 760 5 57,320,000 10nl, -1010 2 42,000,000 760 770 4 43,860,00; 1010 -1020 2 34,630,00 7,0 780 (, 78,50C.OOr 1020 -1030 5 93,20,OGG 780 790 8 11 3,370.0 0 1030 -.1040 1 22,230,00 790 80n 80n 810 8 95,480,OnO 16 218,730,00 1040 -1050 1050 -1060 0 1 25,05C,I)O 810 820 15 222.230.000 As the table clearly suggests, the break from 780 to 680 was so sharp that there were very few days with very little volume while the market was trading in that range. There were only 24 days dur- ing the bear market on which the Dow traded between 780 and 680'land less than 300 million shares of volume,occurred-in that,price range. By contrast, as the table.shows, the volume of trading-in the range 800-860 was intense. There were 123 trading days on which the Dow closed within that range, and the total volume for those trading days was a staggering 1.7 billion shares. As can be seen from the table, the price range with the heaviest trading was between 850 and 860 where almost a half bil- lion shares changed hands on 33 trading days. The paucity of overhead supply between 680 and 780 goes a long way toward explaining the ease with which the stock market has been able to accomplish its rise from January to mid-March. The heavy supply in the low 800's, however, suggests some possible difficulty in extending this rate of rise much longer. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p. m.) S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 816.88 86.85 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (4/17/75) 483.20 AWT/jb No statement or epreS5lon 01 opinion or any other motter herln on'otned IS, or IS 10 be deemed to be, dHectty or Irldlfectly, on offer or the soliCitatIOn of on offer to buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for Ihe conver,ence of the subscriber While we belllilVe the sources of our Informa- tion to be rellcble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof ncr of the stolementt mude herem Any action to be token by Ihe subSCriber should be bosed on hl own investigation and Information Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, as a corporation, and lIs officers or employees, may now hove, or may later toke, pOltlans or trades In respect to any secufltles mentioned In thiS or any future ISsue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed rn thIS or any other Issue Janney Montg.omery Scolf, Jnc, which IS registered With the SEC as on ,vestment advls-or, may give adVice to Its rnvestment adVisory and othel ClJstamers Independently af any statements made In Ih,s or rn any other Issue Further onformahon on any security mentioned herein 15 available n reql,lesl

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