Viewing Year: 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 20, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 20, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - September 20, 1965
View Text Version (OCR)

TABEll'S MARKET Walston &Co. —–Inc —-INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL fUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS lETTER September 20, 1965 EDMUND W. TABELL, author of this letter for the past twenty-one years, died last Tuesday in Nashville, Tennessee. The grief felt by his family and friends cannot be lightened, but it is made easier to bear by the knowledge – – … – – – …… that many of those who knew him through this letter will share it with them. ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter IS pubhshed for )'our convenience and mforrnfttion and ill not Rn offer to sell or 1\ soIldtAtion to buy any Ile(!Urltles discussed The 10formation was obtamed (rom sources we believe to be reliable. hut we do not KURrRntee Its accuracy Walston & Co. Inc and Its officers. dlreetors or employees may have an mtereBt In or purchase and sell the securltle'l referred to herem.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 27, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 27, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - September 27, 1965
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &- Co. Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL fUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER September 27,1965 Last week's market was characterized bya maximum amount of activity and a minimu amount of progress. Volume increased steadily for the first four days of the week, reaching the staggering total of just under 10 million shares on Thursday. For all of this, however, changes were very small, and despite strength late Friday, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed almos unchanged on the week. The closing high of 931. 62 posted on Wednesday was just about at the 930 level mentioned by this letter as an upside objective for the Dow. The Dow has now, over a period of fifteen weeks, twice traversed a range of over 100 points. Such action is entirely consistent with the view of the market pattern expressed by since the part of repeating at this tim the salient features of this view are as follows (1) The market in May of this year end ed the uptrend phase which had begun in October 1963, and entered into a new stage of the cycle. (2) This stage will be characterized by wide swings both up and down over a fairly broad range. Two such swings have just been observed during the past four months. (3) During this period the action of individual stocks will be viciously selective, with some stocks consistently moving higher throughout the period and other stocks doing very little or even moving downward. (4) Investment policy, therefore, should center on utilizing periods of strength to eliminate those issues unlikely to outperform the market, and utilizing down- swings to purchase those issues which are showing above-average market strength. (5) This entire phase will be a prelude to a major advance to new high levels to take place in the latte half of the 1960 'so As noted above, what has happened so far has been with this view. This opinion enabled us, in late June, to suggest that the 850-8 Ie tlie Dow WDuld be a buy ing range and, likewise, caused us to suggest two was h tan ess of optimism as the market reached new highs would not be warrante l1t(is our inued feeling that periods of strength should be used to develop a cash ve is 'ng of those issues which tech- nical and fundamental analYSis indicate mi h ow- rage market performers. Al.L.this-is–I1ot nt- thnt-another-a-ttempt to move to or through the old . hs 1 i'itl.de. With the averages and a good many stocks having reached their owW, some consolidation will be needed before the short term directi n f i ! be predicted. It is often in e . g w on history as an indication of the sort of market that may be expected. Til e e compares the relative action of the Dow and tW! stocks, Merck and Chrysler, b tw ate 1955 and 1958. DJIA Close Merck Chrysler Nov. 1955 – High 487.38 25 378 101 172 Jan. 1956 – Low 462.35 25 74 5/8 Apr. 1956 – High 521. 05 29 1/4 77 1/8 Jun. 1956 – Low 475.29 30 1/8 60 Aug. 1956 – High 520. 95 34 5/8 71 Nov. 1956 – Low 466.10 28 3/4 65 7/8 Jul. 1957 – High 520.77 42 1/4 82 114 Oct. 1957 – Low 419.79 36 1/8 64 1958 Range 573.17 – 436.89 83318 – 363/4 59 118 – 44 As can seen, during tl!e several wide swings back and forth before starting a new major upmove in 1958. Both Merck and Chrysler described sim- ilar swings but Merck, outperforming the market, tended to show consistently higher peaks and bottoms and Chrysler never, during the period, attained the high that it made in Novem- ber of 1955. Obviously, the buyer of Merck on almost any period of market weakness did very well and probably still had a profit even at the depths of the October 1957 bottom. The same was hardly true of the purchaser of Chrysler. The most interesting fact, however, is that when the 1958 upswing began, Merck reached a high of 83 3/8 and Chrysler continued to move down to new lows. If, therefore, we are correct in assuming that coming action may be roughly similar to that outlined. ,above, the best protection against market vicissitudes will lie not in timing short those stocks which are likely to outperfor the market. ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. – 929.54 WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails – 222.38 'J'h18 market letter 18 published for your convemence I\nd information and IS not I\n offer to sell or soIleltation to buy Rny seeuritle!l dlacussro. The inormRtlon was obtained from sources we hdieve to l,, reliable. but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Walston & Co., Inc and Its officers, dlredorll or enlClloyees may have an Interest In or purchase and the secuntle'l referred to herein. WNSOl

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 04, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 04, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - October 04, 1965
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &- Co. —-Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNIClPAl BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges TABEll'S MARKET LEnER OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS Octob'er 4, 1965 We began last week's letter with the paragraph, Last week's market was characterized by a maximum amount of activity and a minimum amount of progress. That sentence is equally descriptive this week. A week ago the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed at 929.54. This week, after rising sharply on Monday and giving up most of its gain on heavy volume on the latter four days, it closed at 929. 65. The big news, of course, was the volume. Wednesday's trading total of 10,600,000 shares was the sixth highest single day's total on record. Actually, to those who follow vol- ume statistics rather . the 10 million-share level and, indeed, in onesense, this'figure is disappointingly low. Trading volume, since the early 1950 's, has been in a rather steady uptrend channel. Indeed, if this channel continues, and there is no reason why it should not, it becomes a vir- tual certainty that before the end of the 1960's we will see a number of days on which trading volume surpasses the 16 million-share record of 1929. Yet volume taken by itself is meaningless. In order to draw meaningful conclusions it is necessary to relate volume to the total number of shares listed. Few realize the rapid- ity with which this latter figure has grown. It reached a billion shares for the first time in 1929 and required 20 years to double in 1949. In only 7 years, by 1956, it had doubled again to 4 billion shares and, six years later in 1963, it had again doubled. By the end of this year close to 10 billion shares should be listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Of course, the point is that trading volume, has grown at no- where near the same rate. The 10 million shares which ch g d ion Wednesday consti- tuted about 100th of 10/0 of all the shares listed. In y a t e has been a curious tendency for peak volume days to run at twice this fi so . olume had reached the same level in relation to shares listed that sa . 19 ,1955 or 1962, 20 million shares would have been traded, not 10 millio . if 1 reached the same level attained . e ' 46millionshares…..–Thefollowing table shows clearly the fact that V;l stocks has been declining steadily for 20 years. It shows the i a 25-year moving total of NYSE volume at selected points since 19, e m of shares listed at the same time. The last column expresses e 'w I ume as a percentage of the listed shares, and shows the clear downtrend . c. Date 25- ek Volume (Tho nd Shs.) Shares Listed Total Volume as of (Thousand Shs.) Shares Listed March,1946 217,000 1,619,000 13.4 March,1951 298,000 2,391,000 12.4 April, 1955 385,900 3,284,000 11.7 March, 1959 465, 900 5, 106, 000 9. 1 May, 1961 565,200 6,663,000 8.4 October, 1965 678,000 9, 863. 000 6. 9 The point of all this, of course, is that while the recent high trading activity is perhaps newsworthy, it is probably necessary to discount it a good deal in analyzing the position of the market today. Essentially, there remains no change in the basic philosophy expressed by this letter last week. The inability of the market'to sustain any worthwhile gains strongly suggests the desirability of utilizing strength to put together cash reserves for a future buying opportunity The basic keynote of the market in the near future will undoubtedly be selectivity. To this end some three weeks ago by wire to Walston offices we noted two cbanges in our recommended list. Electric Storage Battery was switched into Eaton Mfg. 'and Norfolk & Western into Chesapeake & Ohio. We also noted in the wire that International Minerals & Chemical having reached its upside objective of 60, was being removed from the list. We continue to feel that this stock is a good long term holding, but that some consolidation will probably be required before another upward move. Other cbanges will be made in the list in the light of market conditions over the next few weeks,.'' ….., ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 929. 65 WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 222. 93 ThIS market letter Is published for your eonventent!e !\nd Information and Is not Rn otter to sell or a soIleltation to buy an)' aeeurltles dlacussed. The In formation was obtained from sources we to IN reliable, but we do not ItURrantee Its aCCUfaC). Walston & Co. Inc. Rnd Its offif!ers. dlrec-tors or employees may have an Interest In or purehase and sell the Bef!UratleS referred to herein. WN301 & 1.

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 11, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 11, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - October 11, 1965
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. – Inc – – – – – INVESTMENT BANkERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONOS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKETLETTER October 11, 1965 The Dow-Jones lndustrial Average this week made two more assaults at new high territory. The peak intra-day high had been 944.96 on September 29th. On Tuesday, the intra-day top was 942.49 and Friday's intra-day high was 944.08, just below the former pea These figures compare with an intra-day peak of 944.82 in May. On the basis of closing prices, the Dow reached 937.88 and then backed away on September 27th. It exceeded this by reaching 938.70 on Tuesday before selling off. Friday's close was 938. 32, and the high close in May was 939.62. As the Dow is repeatedly thrust back as if by some invisible force at approximately the same area, there develops a tendency on the part of.many investors to ascribe some mystical significance to the phenomenon of a new high or failure to make a new high. Many amateur technicians, for example, seem to feel that every new high is a breakout and is an immediate assurance of higher prices. Would that technical analysis were as simple as all that! If every stock in the Dow were to go up half a point tomorrow, we would have a rise of some six points in the average and a decisive new peak. It is hard to believe that this woul be a particularly earth-shaking event. What matters a good deal more than playing guessing games about new peaks in the averages, it seems to us, is a recognition of what kind of general market pattern appears to be developing. Recent events have done nothing to dispel our feeling that the basic pattern for 1965 will be that of a trading range with wide swings back and forth in the averages. A further characteristic of such a market will be extreme selectivity with a great many stocks moving in a direction counter to that of the popular selection, we con- tinue to believe, will be more important to investment succ s 0 On xt year than guesse about the market. To this end we are making some changes in 0 com e a list, accepting profits in some stocks which have moved upward da', and, in one case,suggesti'ri that losses be taken in a rather disappointing r mer our Quality and Long Term Growth List, General t a' anuary 1964,-reached-a high of 120 1/4 earlier this week – wit it6tside objective of 130. Although the stock's quality merits its conti e .g long term investors, we are removing it from the list for new b i 0 t i being. Newmont Mining Corp. has been in our recommended list and J. P. Stevens & Co. since October, 1961. Both of these stocks have ached their upside objectives, Newmont having reached a high of 587/8 vs. an u ential of 59-62,and Stevens having reached 58 1/2,just about its immediate objective though there is possible longer term 72 in the pattern. We are, nonetheless, suggesting acceptance of profits in both issues in intermediate term accounts. Litton Industries is a more recent recommendation, having been suggested in February,1965. At its high of 118 7/8 it had reached its first upside objective and accordingly is being drop- ped from the list. Fruehauf Corp. , originally entered our Low- Priced list in 1958 and was later trarlsfer red to the regular list as it moved up in price. The stock appears to be in a slow uptrend, but due to present lack 'of immediate potential, we are removing it. Also being removed is Raytheon which has reached its nearer term objective on Friday's strength due to a sharp earnings improvement. However, the stock is now in an area of heavy overhead supply. We have lost patience with one rather disappointing issue in our Low-Price Specula- tive list – International Packers, which had repeatedly been suggested at various prices over recent years. We are recommending that losses be accepted in this issue and that it be switc ed into other issues on our speculative list, such as American Bosch Arma or Audio Devices. We have repeatedly suggested in this letter that new purchases be made during period of weakness. We are, therefore, suggesting buying levels' for three issues which we believe currently attractive. They will be added to our list if these buying levels are reached. The issues are National Acme (45 1/4) to be bought at 40, United-Carr, Inc. (56) to be bought at 50-48 and Dorr-Oliver (27 3/8) on the American Stock Exchange, to be bought at 24-23. A new issue of our recommended list will be in the hands of your Acco,unt Executive at the end of this week. ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 938.32 WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 228.87 Thill market letter 18 published for your convemence Ilnd Information Rnd 18 not an offer to sell or R aoIieitatlon to buy Rny eeeurities dlaeusaed. Ttle In formation Will obtained from sources we blheve to k reliable, but we do not guarantee Ih accurncy WRiston & Co.. Inc. Rnd its OffiCf'T8. dlrectol'1!l or employees maY have an mterest In or purchasf' and sell the securities referred to berem ., WN-SOl -,

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 12, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 12, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - October 12, 1965
View Text Version (OCR)

– Walston &Co, Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL SON OS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S RECOMMENDED LIST October 12, 1965 This edition of our Recommended List gives long term technical upside objectives and indicated support levels in cases where such levels exist. An asterisk in the Upside Objective column indicates either that the objective is unclear, or that the stock has not yet broke ouLoLits.base.1.or.ma.tion ….Wher.e a stock is recommended mainly for yield and moderate price appreciation, the present yield is noted below. QUALITY & LONG 10/11/65 ity Alum. Co. Amer. 68 1/4 ArneI'. Can 561/2 ArneI'. T & T 671/4 Chesa. & Ohio 773/8 B B A B Gulf Oil 585/8 A Upside-Sup Obj. port 65 60-77 50-45 65-62 100-150 70-65 63-92 55-50 TERM GROWTH CloseQualUps-ide-,-Sup 10/11/65 Int'l Paper 31 1/8 A Obj. port 30-28 Nat'l CashR. 77 1/2 A 144 75-70 Radio Corp. 485/8 A 57 Reynolds Tob.44 1/4 A Yield 4.20/0 Royal Dutch 41 1/4 A Yield 4.30/0 PRICE APPRECIATION Close Qual- Upside Sup- 10/11/65 J!I. Obj. port Amer. Hosp.S 367/8 A- 53 ArneI'. Potash 381/4 B 60 34 Atch. Top.S.F. 33 1/2 A- Yield 4. 80/0 Auto.Canteen 263/4 B 42 22-20 Beaunit Corp. 45 3/8 B 57-60 40-38 34-1 /.8-B–42 Clevite 503/8 B 57-100 40 C1uett Peabody 787/8 B 90-95 Copperweld S. 343/8 B 47-52 30 Crowell ColI. 41 1/4 B 48-64 34-32 Denver, R. G. 20 3/8 B Yield 5.00/0 Disney, Walt 50 B 65-100 47-45 Eaton Mfg. 54 B 78 50-45 EI Paso N.G. 21 1/8 B Yield 4.80/0 First Charter 25 36 23-20 Gen'l Dynamics 48 56-88 42-40 Hewlett Pack. 37 1/2 B 41-59 Illinois Central 60 B Yield 4.00/0 Inter. Motor F. 32 1/2 B 45 29-27 Kansas City So. 40 A- Yield 5.00/0 Koppers Co 65 1/2 B 80-100 Close Qual- 10/11/65 J.!L Korvette 373/4 B McDermott 45 B McGraw Ed. 39 A- Mesabi Tr. 141/4 Metro. Gold. 41 … Revlon 441/2 A- Reynolds Met. 44 1/2 B Riegel Paper 22 1/8 B Schlumberger 681/2 A Scovill Mfg. 56 B Shell Oil 66 A Signode 297/8 A- Southern Rwy 55 1/2 B Spartans Ind. 383/4 Sundstrand 30 1/8 B Swingline 56 B United Fruit 26 1/4 B Vulcan Mat. 20 3/8 B Wallace & T. 37 1/4 A- Warner Bros.Co 377/8 B Upside SupObj. port 46 32-30 58-80 40-38 60 35-30 Yield 5. 60/0 34-30 56-94 40-35 34 18 90-130 65-60 65 50-45 75-120 60 40-50 25 Yield 5. 00/0 44 44-70 25-23 70 30 20 28 43-63 48 30 LOW-PRICED Close Qual- 10/11/65 Amer.Bosch 23 3/8 Audio Devices 20 1/8 B- Camp. Chib. 4 1/2 Foote Mineral 20 5/8 B Gt. West Fin. 12 3/8 Ling Temco 30 Upside SupObj. port 40-50 20-18 30-40 15 26-29 19-17 18 35-62 25-22 Close Qual- Upside Sup- 10/11/65 J!I. Obj. port Microwave 20 1/2 B 38-48 Mohasco 22 B 29 Nat'l Can 26 1/4 Pacific Pete 10 1/4 B 50-60 B- Sbd.Wld.Air 111/8 C 14-20 9-8 Univ. Match 18 B 28-57 Varian Assoc. 24 1/4 B 37 Thls Bulletin 1; for our ronvcm.. nr, .,nll In(ormallon And Il not lin oft'r to wll or n sohclt-ttlon to hu !l'cuntll.-'S The mformRtlon WitS obtained from bourC( '-'(. hdllvc 10 .. lellIlhlt hut W' do not )luarltnt'.' Its o\('(,UI,I(,) WIII'lton & Co., Ine an.1 it'l oRinr.., (lnectors or emtllot'es rna) hRve an Interest In or purch,u,c I\n41 M'Il tht 'CI'Ulltll''! ref. rJt'4! to hl'rln WN-9i6

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 18, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 18, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - October 18, 1965
View Text Version (OCR)

W—-a–l-s-tIoncn–&—-C–o-. INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges TABEll'S MARKET lETTER OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS October 18, 1965 In reaching a new intra-day high of 948.30 and a new closing high of 942. 65 on Mon- day, the Dow-Jones Industrials finally confirmed the action of the host of other market in- dices that had earlier moved into new high ground. The achievement of new peaks did not set off any pronounced buying wave. Indeed, the Dow churned around on heavy volume on the next two days with advances and declines about equal, and then declined Thursday on reduce volume. Friday's rise to an intra-day high of 945.07 brought the Dow to a point just below the – . Since the Rails w'ere-already in new high territory, Monday's action yielded a Dow Theory buy signal. It should be noted that this buy signal reversed a sell signal given last -. 'points-lower tlieDow'Theory. – – – Despite a series of grudging moves into new high ground, the action of the averages over the past month has been relatively sluggish. The Industrials on September 16th closed at 931. 18, a figure not too different from Friday's close of 940. 68. Despite this sluggish- ness, the action of individual issues has been outstanding with well over 100 new highs being registered on most days. All this does is to reinforce the theory reiterated ad nauseam by this letter that investment results will be achieved not by guessing the Averages, but by se- lection of individual issues. Technical analysis, of course, can be of a good deal of value in such selection. One of the functions of technical work has been described as the bird-dog function. In other words, a close inspection of price patterns will often point out a group of stocks which had hitherto been rather uninteresting, but which seem to a good deal above their current levels. A case in point can be found in t e lction of Machine Tool stocks. Over the past two to three years many of t h a ave forming bases whic even when read conservatively, indicate possible Ie s muc 100 above present prices. In recent trading sessions, on pro re e action, a great many of the stocks have broken out on the upside of these . Th ,in this case, technical work has .p.inj;ed out an area .n ,!ion of fundamental radically enough to justify the ti t yz!Wther the Machine Tool industry has change projections. In this particu r pear that the outlook has, indeed, changed and changed radically. h a i ndustry was, formerly, among the most cyclical of all trades, and growth, . t la eO's and early 1960's, has generally been erratic or nil. Yet here, as in so ma 0 industries, technology has drast ically altered the picture in the forrn of so-called or numerically controlled machine tools. The N1C tool is, simply, a device whereby a machine tool operates under the control of a numerical medium, usually paper tape, rather than under the control of a human operato It is, therefore, one more aspect of the automation revolution. N1C tools are nothing new — indeed, they have been on the market for some ten years. What is new, however, is the mass market which these machines appear to be achieving for the first time. Industrywide,probabl 20 of tools now being shipped are numerically controlled, and many companies have backlog figures that run to 50 and 60 N/c machines.One analyst has estimated that 75 of all existing machine tools in the United States could I;e economically replaced by N/c machines. This surge can dramatically alter the outlook for the industry. Among the effects which may be felt by the machine tool companies are the following (1) Cyclical fluctuations will be miti gated or eliminated, as tlie basic demand for N/c equipment will probably not be tied to cap- ital spending. (2) Replacement cycles will be dramatically shortened. N1C machines to be economic must be used on three shifts and they will, therefore, undoubtedly wear out faster. (3) Both dollar volume and profit margins should increase due to the relatively high cost of N1C machine tools compared to conventional tools. (4) Competition will be lessened. Forme ly, machine tools were an industry in which almost anyone could compete. Now, technological know-how and resources available only to the larger companies, will be required. Attractive investment opportunities in the industry abound. Sundstrand (32 1/2) which has been on our recommended list for some time and, as mentioned last week, the high yield ing National Acme (49) will be added on price dips. Other attractive companies appear to be Cincinnati Milling (67 1/2) and Ex-Cell-O (55 5/8). Dow-Jones'Irid..- 940 68 Dow-Jones Rails 232. 95 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. mc. This market letter IS pubhshed for your convenience rtnd InfOTmfltlon and IS not an offer to sell or A soliCItation to buy any seeuTlties diSCUssed. The information was obtAined from soure!'.!; we bdu!ve to ) reliable. but we do not guarantee Its accurac). Wnl'lton & Co.. lnc. and lts officers. ihrectors or employees may have an interest in or purchase and sell the seCUrities refened to herein. WNS()l –

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 25, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 25, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - October 25, 1965
View Text Version (OCR)

–Walston &Co. Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS I FTTFR n October 25, 1965 The market strength continued last week with new highs in the Dow-Jones Industrial average being reached on four out of the five trading days, culminated by a peak of 959. 39 on Friday before light profit-taking set in. This was close to the current upside objective of 960, although the Rails, which reached a peak of 238.70 this week, can be read to a possible long term 255. However, a survey of all listed stocks shows that a great many leaders have reached upside objectives and may be in need of some consolidation. As usual, the best pro- tection which can be afforded against investment risk at these levels is to make sure that portfolios are restricted to issues with a favorable outlook. Such a stock is described below. – SUNDSTRAND 'CORPORA TION – – Current Price 33 3/4 Last week's letter outlined at some length what Current Dividend 1. 00 we conceive to be the exceedingly bright future for Current Yield 2. 90/0 the machine tool industry. We discussed in some Long Term Debt Hi, 850, 000 Common Stock 1, 657, 908 shs. detail the growing acceptance of numerically con- trolled or NI C machine tools – – the automatically operated tools which go so far to reduce costs and Sales 1965-E 90,000,000 improve productivity. Sales 1964 82,400,000 Earn. Per Sh. 1965-E Earn. Per Sh. 1964 2. 15 1 . 83 One of the most attractive participations in the growth of NI C tools appears to be Sundstrand Corpo ration, which has been in our recommended list for some time. anly prominently iden- Mkt. Range -1965-64 343/8-18718 tified with the mac e which constitutes some 250/0 oGfi ent ut produces other items which appear to hold promise for earnings ove next years. Sundstrand's entry in the a e tool field is the Omnimil, which currently is estima ted to 30 machine tool shipments. Backlog, however,–continues-to-increase and t 0 ore, cts a considerably-higher percenta-ge of N/c machines than do . te possible that machine tool sales under this stimulus could incre se at e e a 1 0 to 150/0 annually between now and 1970, and, as automatic machine r – r proportion of total sales, profit margins, which have already sho i ease since 1963, could continue to widen. Sundstrand, ho v ates in other areas which appear to have growth potential. One of the most promisi the company's aviation division, most of whose sales originate from one item – a co nt speed drive which is used to stabilize the flow of power from the engines to the aircraft electrical system. Through technological superiority Sundstrand has managed to achieve the lion's share of the market for these devices. The company is pres- ently selling to every producer of commercial jets, and each jet requires six units — one for each engine and two spares. The units wear out fairly quickly and replacement volume is si zable and will continue to grow as the number of planes in the air increases. Sales of constant speed devices to the government are also important, but are becoming less so as commercial sales continue to grow. Still a third Sundstrand product with considerable growth potential is the hydrostatic transmission used in the construction, material handling and agricultural equipment indus- tries. This transmission has the ability to vary sp'eEOds with constant engine turnover and with no clutch. Sundstrand has recently moved into a new plant which will produce these transmissions and currently start-up costs are producing a small loss in this area. Break- even should be reached in mid-1966 and, commencing in 1967, hydrostatic sales should add measurably to earnings. Recent results have undoubtedly reflected the trend in capital expenditures, but also the excellent growth shown by N/c machine tools and aviation products. Per share earnings increased to 1. 83 in 1964 from 1. 21 the previous year and are expected to reach 2. 15 in 1965, possibly approaching 3.00 for 1966. 1965 sales are estimated at 90 million vs. 82.4 million in 1964. The present 1. 00 dividend is conservative in relation to present high cash generation capability. From a technical point of view the stock has an initial objective of 44 followed by a longer term objective of 70. The recent move upward has been sharp, but any periods of minor weakn.ess.shQuldprovide an !)xcellent buying opportunity. Dow-Ji5rfe'sT 'Irldtt95'2;ifZ'''' .. – . ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Tones Rails 235 61 WALSTON & CO INC This market letu-r 18 pubhshed lor your convenience Rnd mformation and is not an offer to Bell or 8OI1cltation to buy any aeeurltles dlseussed. The m. fonnation WRS obtained from soure'S we believe to t.. rellllble. but we do not guarantee its act'urnc Walston & Co., Inc. and its officers, directors or emttloyees may have an Interest In or purchASe And sell the seeurltles referred to herein '-,– – – –

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 01, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 01, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - November 01, 1965
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. —-Inc —INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock and Other Principai Stock and Commodity Exchanges TABELL'S MARKET LETTER OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS November 1, 1965 Most major market indices continued their surge into new high territory last week after weakness on Monday which saw the Dow-Jones Industrials close off 4. 28 and reach an intra-day low of 944.30. The rest of the week was strong and an intra-day high of 966. 47 reached on Friday. The Rails, while following the action of the Industrials, failed to follow through into new high ground and last week's intra-day peak of 238.05 was below the high of 238.70 reach ed last Friday. The Utilities also continued the irregular trend which has characterized their action since mid-September. Despite the market strength, there are, from a technical pOint of view, a number of negative items'in the Th-ese items may be summed up as follows. At this week's high, the Dow has, apparently, reached all upside objectives. The same is true of a great many individual stocks including many of those that have heretofore been market leaders. It should be noted that reaching an objective is not the same thing as forming a top. The former simply indicates that a new pattern must form before it is possible to project a major price change one way or the other. The latter indicates some degree of vulnerability, and it is significant that most stocks which have reached objectives have only formed the tentative beginnings of potential top formations. As the market moved ahead to new highs this week, volume was sharply reduced. Volume for the week was 35,980,000 shares vs. over 43 million shares last week and 44 million the week before. Thus, some loss of momentum Perhaps the most important negative feature has b tfttued deterioration of market breadth. The market has now posted a new i h in 3 secutive weeks and it is 5 weeks since the May intra-day high of 944 lle. ,in all this time, our longer term weekly breadth index has failed e igh in the Average. On a shorter term our daily breadth .index h a ally in a slight downtrend since mid negative acter of market leadership an was obvious heavy speculation going on in a number of compare the pres . factor has led a number of analysts publicly to e t peculative binge of 1961. This, of course, is ridicu- lous. It is quite true un eek ago, a great deal of market activity centered on growt favorites, many of Whl h selling at high levels based on recent earnings. However, to compare this activity the level of speculative frenzy and over-valuation that existed in 1961 is clearly unrealistic. What is worthy of note is that the market leadership may very well be slowly changing. In this connection, the following table is of interest. It shows the prices of five major market favorites and five investment quality issues at their highs of a week ago, at this week's low, and at Friday's close. It will be noted that despite the Dow ral- lies into new high ground, the five glamor issues have failecHCachieve new high territory while the investment issues have, by and large, shown similar performance as the Dow. High Low Close High Low Close 10/22/65 10t.l5-29i65 10/29/65 10/22765 10/25-29/65 10/29/65 Fairchild C. 1437/8 Nat'l Video 145 Syntex 1367/8 Litton 1217/8 Magnavox 70 1/4 1151/2 96 1191/8 1131/2 65 5/8 1221/4 1141/4 –130 r/2 1167/8 69 1/8 Amer..Tob. 41 1/4 Alum.Amer. 705/8 Minn.Mining 61 1/4 Honeywell 75 Std. of Calif. 77 7/8 403/8 70 1/2 60 1/8 737/8 77 1/4 415/8 733/8 62 3/4 763/4 77 3/4 It is obviously too early to state that a shift in leadership in the direction of blue chip issues has occurred, but such a development would hardly be abnormal at this stage of the market. Certainly it would seem appropriate for many investors to consider upgrading the quality of some of their holdings in order to improve market performance in the months ahead. Dow-Jones Ind. 960.82 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 235.86 This market letter is pubhshed tor your convenienee And mformatlon and i8 not an offer to sell or II. solicitation to buy Ilny IlE(!Urlties diecUSM'd. The m tormatlon wall obtained from sources we believe to k reliable. but we do not gulLrantee Its accuracy W,fllston & Co, Inc and Its officers, directors or eml'Ioyee8 may have an mterest In or purchase and sell the seCUrities referred to herem ———-

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 08, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 08, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - November 08, 1965
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS MARKEr LETTER November 8, 1965 The Dow-Jones Industrials reached an intra-day peak of 969.98 on Thursday before profit-taking at the end of the week set in and thus chalked up the fifteenth consecutive week in which a new high, above that of the previous week, had been posted. At Thursday's high, the index was in all-time high territory and some 30/0 above the previous top reached in May of this year. Yet, for many investors, the market since May has not been a particularly enjoyable one. As the Averages continued their advance to successive new peaks, the question Why stocks going up was on the lips of a good many stockholders. Indeed, a good many stocks are considerably below their May tops. This fact is evi- denced by our breadth index which, with the Dow well above its May levels, is still below its peak of six months ago. It has been a period when the stock in the Average has done consid- erably better than the average stock. However, in order to achieve real capital appreciation over the past six months it has been necessary for the investor to concentrate his holdings in a few selected issues which have led the market on the upside. Most of these issues are concentrated in the electronics, color TV, airline, aerospace and office equipment fields, as shown in the table below. May High Recent High Change Fairchild Camera 49 1/2 143 7/8 190.7 Boeing 763/8 1255/8 64.5 Zenith 837/8 120 43.1 Xerox 147 190 29.3 National Airlines DJIA 841/4 944. 82 119 3/4(\' , 9 aB \2J 2. 7 A great many of the aforementioned leaders m ntinue outperform the market. However, as we pointed out last week, a th a eached upside objectives, and it is quite possible that at this stage shifts in a shi uld occur. As suggested, it seems logical that, at this stage,.the shift in e.t rd higher-quality issuesnoted.above could continue, and that the ital appreciation opportunities, u \ gd list could provide both worthwhile capdownside protection. Those familiar with our k . 's . ded into three categories, the first of which is headed Quality a r . This segment of the list would appear to be an attractive area from 1 to se new commitments. Three of the stocks in this list are reviewed below. AMERICAN CA 1/2), which has recently moved into newall-time high territory, has done so on attractive earnings reports which indicate the benefits of diversification, a major capital program and extensive corporate realignment which began two years ago. Earnings for the nine months ended September were 2.92 vs. 2. 19, and record results of 3.60 are expected for the year. Extensive research and development efforts have placed the company in the forefront of improvements in the packaging and canning field. ALUMINUM CO. OF AMERICA (74) continues to appear attractive for what is, essen- tially, a very simple reason. While the consumption of aluminum has grown dramatically ove the past seven years, the company's earnings have remained relatively stable as margins have trended sharply downward due to excess capacity and increasing costs. There are now distinct signs that this trend is over. In 1964, margins improved for-the first time and the company's earnings of 2.72, up from 2. 27, showed a much better increase than did sales. This continued throughout 1965 and earnings this year should approach 3.50, with the trend continuing at least through the first half of 1966. The recent price increase is a concrete sig that the poor supply-demand situation has abated and the stock, presently cheap on an histor- ical basis, could well regain its status as a growth company. ROYAL DUTCH PETROLEUM (45) holds a 600/0 interest in the Royal Dutch-Shell Group, the second largest petroleum enterprise in the world. The company is a well entrenched pr;o dueing, refining and marketing operation whose operations are worldwide in scope. Recently, earnings have trended upward due to firming prices in the United States and there is now some indication that the hitherto competitive West European price situation could stabilize. Any improvement in margins could bring 1966 results to a figure well above the record 3.8 per share estimated for 1965. The stock appears attractive on a growth-income basis. ,EOWrJones dnCil..,.-. ,9,5.9., 46,,Dow-Jones Rails – 238. 53 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter is pubhshed for your convenience hnd Information Rnd is not an offer to !leU or II. 3OIicltfttion to buy Rny 5eC!UTltlPS dlfleuss-M. The tn- formabon was obtamed from sources we bUlCve to IN relmble. but we do not guarantee Its arcuracy \Va!;ton & Co, Inc. and Its officN'! dlT('rtors or employee,; may have an interest In or purchase and sell the secuntif'S referred to herein . WN801

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 15, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 15, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - November 15, 1965
View Text Version (OCR)

TABELL'S Walston &- Co. Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL SONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock 'and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST ANO OVERSEAS MARKET LETTER November 15, 1965 GILLETTE COMPANY Curreht Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt Common Stock Sales- 1965-E Sales- 1964 39 1. 20 3. 10/0 None 28,390,730 shs. 340,000,000 P98,960,000 Sweet, in Shakespeare's words, are the use of adversity. Adversity, especially of a temporary na ture, often provides buying opportunities in the stock market and this is, we believe, currently the case with Gillette Company. As recently as 1962, Gillette had to be conside ed the very model of a modern merchandiser. The s, Earn. per sh. 1965-E Earn. per sh. 1964 1. 55 1. 33 a necessity in every American home, was relatively easy to make, and would, one would think, be the focu of intense competition. Yet, by dint of product supe- Currrent Range 1965-64 433/8-251/2 riority, effective promotion and advertising, and an untarnished reputation, Gillette held, in 1962, an astounding 900/0 of the total double-edged razor blade market. Nor had the company achieved this pre-eminent position by scraping by on razor-thin profit margins. Indeed, in 1961, of the 500 largest industrial corporations in the United States, Gillette ranked third in terms of return on sales, operating income as a percentage of sales running as high as 350/0. Then came the debacle – – in the form of a razor blade made of stainless steel and first imported into this country by a little-known English manufacturer of garden tools. The stainless steel blade, with its superior shaving quality shaving market by storm, and Gillette, delaying its entry i t could achieve the proper quality control, and the vasr01u t fa' blade life, took the s market until it es it would require, found itself, for the first time, losing ground to its nwj6)j' com ors. AltYiough sales conti- nued to increase, profit margins dropped 70/0 in 1964 and per-share earnings declined from 1. 60 in 1962 to r a . In the face of the uncertainty, the 1964-fo1 '25- r/2 vs-a -r961 high e;There is now evidence, 0 situation has begun to stabilize. It appears that the stainless stee b 'eved its maximum market penetration and Gillette' share of the total . s et also appears to have leveled out. Starting with the last quarter 1964, ter- uarter earnings comparisomfor the company again became favorable and for this have started on the ro rnings should improve to around 1. 55 per share. Gillette may ck to pre-eminence. Helping it along that road, will be two new products recently introduced. The first of these is a ne.w stainless blade, to be sold at a higher price and evidently of even better qual- ity than existing stainless blades. The introduction of this product is highly reminiscent of Gillette's 1959 introduction of the Super Blue blade which brought to it the lion's share of the blade market which it enjoyed in the early 1960's. Another new and perhaps even more dramatic product is a new type of razor utilizing a replaceable cartridge with a continuous band of stainless steel. This razor will mark Gillette's first entry into the single-edge injector market, a market estimated to account for a quarter of all U. S. blade' sales. In short, it appears that Gillette's growth over the next few years could come not only from world-wid growth in razor blade also by the company's carving out a large slice ofJhe.blade market it had lost with the introduction of stainless – Meanwhile, the company continues to do well in non-shaving areas. Its Toni Compan Division, despite declining sales of home permanents, has increased profits with such toilet- ries as Adorn hair spray. The company's Right Guard is a leading name in the deodoran market, and the company is also a leader in shaving cream and hair grooming products. Its Sterilon Division is a profitable producer of disposable hospital supplies. From a technical point of view, the recent upside breakout from the long 1962 -1965, base between 40 and 26 indicates an upside objective of 80 with support just under current levels. The 1. 20 dividend provides a 30/0 yield and the stock is considered attractive for pur chase in capital gains accounts. It is being added to our recommended list for quality and long term growth. Dow-Jones Ind. 956.29 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 238. 55 ThIS market letter lS Ilubh'lhed for )our And informatIon find 1'1 rIOt nn offer to sell or ft 8OI.iclWion to buy Rny aecurltlCfl dU!Cll'lSed The In. formation WfiS ObtfllRCti from we hdi('v(' to I, rehahlt', hut we do not Its RlCur.IlY Walston & Co., Ine. nnd lls officcls, hrt''tors or employcc'! may have an mlerest In or purchase and sell the selUrltl('5 refctrcd to herem. WN.301 ,( ,

Download PDF