Viewing Month: December 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 06, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 06, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - December 06, 1965
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Walston &- Co. Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL fUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OfFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER Lecember 6, 1965 Most segments of the stock market appeared to be under moderate pressure last week. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average pushed io a new intra-day low of 93S SO on Thurs- day, continuing the slow erosion that has taken place since the November 4th high of 969 9S. Under the pressure of competition with an ever-weakening bond market, the Utilities continue their slide and at the week's intra-day low of 152.00 were at their lowest level since the June bottom. Meanwhile, the Rails spent most of the week continuing the sharp advance that had begun just before Thanksgiving Day and posted a new intra -day top of 245. 14 on Wednesday The week was, in short, one of highly mixed action. Such cross currents are likely to COl'- .t…i…nue–. — – —— – This sort of thing tends to be confusing to tile average investor. Cor years he has been bombarded with the illusion thal the market must be ei1.her a bull market or a bear market and that there is no rOOm for anything in between. A market in which a great many stocks go up and a greai many siocks go down, both phenomena occurring at the same time, tends to leave him somewhat confused. Yet this is precisely the type of market we have seen in 1965 and the type of market we are likely to see throughout 1966. The Dow-Jones Indus- trial Average will end the year at a level not far removed from where it traded most of last Spring, yet an examination of most portfolios will reveal boih sizable profits and sizable losses. j The experience of ihe Price Apprecicltion section of our recommended list, since the last issue in mid-Ociober, is iypical of the kind of ihing ihai can be expected. On Octobe 11th, the date of the issuance of ihe list, the DC'w-Jones at 942.65, not ioo far different from Friday's close of 946.10. Of thc 42 Wdown, although, of the 17 losses, 6 are fractional. 5 are up and 17 are go i approxima tely 50 than the average loss, and the list as a show, j5j)reciaiion during lhe perlOd. ,\- ' list has \I/'ny s!.Q.cl-;s.Jmve moved l.lR . – sharply and ha ve reached, or are ueJi. e ob,iec lives. Sparians Industries. for example, originally UJ65 al much lowpr levels, has reached its upside objective of term accounis. ct, c; rcmoved, aJll,ough it may be held in long (S4) .Inc! Scovill Manufac1.uring (61) are approaching their 10 Je . . es of !)O and 65 respec1.iveJy, and will be removed if these objec1.ives are r ched ther stocks 111 the 11st which have behaved well include I American Hospital Suppl ,9 5/S), Eaton Manufactunng (595/8). General Dynamics (60 1/4) Illinois Central (65 1/4f J. McDermott (49 7/8) anc! Sundsll'and (36) Any lisi, of course, has its quota of recommendations which, at least iemporarily, turn out poorly and in our case the worst acling recommendalion has been E. J. Korvette which reached a low of 26 5/S on Friday in the face of an extremely disappointing first- quarter earnings statemeni showing results down 50 from J.1st year The sharp decline in the stock has been stimulated by a number of factors induding management changes, re- ports of insider selling, and a host of other ostensible difficulties. However, our original recommendation of Korvette was based on the company's proven ability to increase sales sharply over the past decade, and the expectation thal this sales growth would continue. It was our feeling that this ircre.1se would be coupled with in ing profit margins which had plagued ihe company over receni years. While recent reports indicate that such an improvement is not immineni, it does not mean thai it is out of the question. The current losses resulting from food and furniture operations should, I be reversed. And 120 of sales behind each share provides a good deal of leverage. IMeanwhile, from a technical point of view,lhe siock has just about reached its down – side Objective. While it will undoubtedly continue under heavy pressure from tax-loss selling for the time being, we feel that the stock has merit as a long range speculation Ind. 946. 10 Rails 243. 70 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thl market letter IS Iluhh.;hed for )our ('011,,'1111'11('1' ,11.1 ,nrrmation .1n.1 ,,, nn\ 'I fT. to ell or R ..ohl'ltatton to huv til) 'lM'Uf,tlf'S dl;'U.',1 1 h. 1- ormnllOn WitS obtnHlId from source, we Iil,v to I 1.llIbll', but (' d not ),,\l,1t Int., ,I .. aC('ull\!' \\ ,ton K ell Ill .lntl Ih … hl emjJlo'eS mllY have nn Interest 11\ or pUf('h,l!' In.1 I'll tht -.'IunlL(S ,.f.II,, to hlllin.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 13, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 13, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - December 13, 1965
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Walston &Co. Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL fUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER December 13, 1965 Despite the fact that the Dow-Jones Industrial reached new high territory at 969.98 just a month ago, the stock market has not been a one-way street for the last four years. The Dow-Jor.es Industrial Average reached a high of 741. 30 in November 1961. It was not until late 1963, jus tab 0 u t two years later, that this high was bettered. If one had bought a representative list of investment stocks at around the highs of four years ago, how would he have fared at today's prices In that four-year period, between 1961 and 1965, the Dow-Jones average of 30 industrial stocks had advanced approximately 310/0. In order not to handpick our list to suit the purpose, we have selected the thirty Industrial companies in – . -America with–th-e–b..iggest sales in the year of 1964. This list was taken from a compilation – i made by Fortune Ma'i;azine and includes only industrial companies; not banks, insurance com -, panies or utilities. Western Electric, an American Telephone subsidiary, was included in th list of the thirty biggest. In the list below we have substituted American Telephone for West- ern Electric, which has no public market. The list is arranged according to the best price performance since the 1961 highs. Prices are approximate, but have been adjusted for splits, stock dividends, etc. 1961 Dec. High 1965 Change 1961 Dec. 0/0 High 1965 Change Chrysler 15 54 260 Shell Oil 47 63l/2 35 Boeing 57 138 142 Gulf Oil 44 58 32 Radio Corp. 22 47 114 Westinghouse Elec. 50 63 26 Socony Mobil General Motors Lockheed Stand. Oil of Indiana International Harvest. 53 58 39 29 28 95 79 103 78 66 69 46 1/2 60 44 1/2 59 National Dairy 79 Int. 41b5 b4t . la 4 Uthi\)y\ Car . 72 86 518 491/2 62 70 9 7 -3 -3 Stand. Oil of N. J. Gener.al General Electric 52 82 58 33 471/2 81 113 Tire 47 45 -4 . ..E0 59 55 -7 0 ef. Tel.& Tel. 70 61 –13- DuPont 171 Armour 54 421/2 21 Stand. Oil of General Dynamics 4 9 Bethlehem Steel 49 36 -27 Proctor & Gamble 102 69 1/2 33 Texaco CY-80 36 U.S. Steel 91 48 1/2 -47 The hst has gain d 7 ich is somewhat better than the gain of 310/0 in the Dow-Jone Average. However, the ection of individual stocks would have made a tremendous differ- ence. For example, a urchase of the first fifteen issues would have resulted in a percentag gain of 770/0. An investment of 1,000 in each issue, or 15,000 total, would have a value of 26,550 today. If, however, the investor bought the second fifteen issues in the list, he woul have found thathis original 15,000 investment had decreased 30/0 and was worth only 14,650 after four years. The main conclusion to be drawn from the above compilation is that it is poss ible for individual issues to move against the main trend. This happened above when average prices were moving higher. It can also happen when average prices are moving lower. If the above sounds familiar, it should. ILappeared in this letter. on pecemtJer 8, .– The only things that have been changed are the dates, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average fig- ures, the stocks in the table (the 1965 Fortune compilation was used), and the comparison periods. (the original compilation used the 1956 highs vs. the price in December 1961). The 1961 survey showed substantially the same sort of results as those noted above. Why do we repeat the letter at this time Simply because investors persist in refusing to believe the conclusion drawn in the last paragraph. The letter, remember, WUE written in 1961, a few months before the worst market break in 25 years. As the compilation above shows, the philosophy expressed then proved true despite that break. It will prove true again regardless of what market vicissitudes may be over the next 12 months. Dow-Jones Ind. 952.72 DowJones Rails 244.72 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thlll market letter IS pubhshed for )our con'('ntcnce tnd mformatlon nn.1 l not ,\n offer to sell or a 'l()h(,ltt-tion to buy flny seeUfltle!l diseusoed The 111 formntlOn Wf\'1 obtnlnerl from sources we bti1c\-c to I. rfhable. hut ….. e flo not guarAntee Its RCeUnl.C\ \\'nJton l( Co, Inc, ano It., offiet'rs. 01 cm)'lloyees mny havc nn rnterC'lt In or .md .,tll th(! hl!eurriles refel red to hcr cln WN301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 20, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 20, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - December 20, 1965
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Walston &- Co. —–lnc —– INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST O,ERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER December 20, 1965 As the year draws to a close, it is appropriate to do some reflecting on the year just past and to try to gauge the outlook for the year ahead. In next week's letter we shall try to draw some conclusions as to the investment prospects for 1966, but, as a prelude to this, it might be well to look back on the action of the market during the year now coming to an end. In terms of the most widely used index, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, the market is up some 9 1/2 from a December 31, 1964 close of 874. 13. However, this advance was consider- ably more moderate than that of 1963 when the Dow advanced 15, or 1964 when it advanced 14. Also, the advance has hardly been in a straight line. The market advanced sharply durin the month of January 1965, but then moved more or less sideways until early April w)ten a — shirj) advanceoof someoO poinfs-to944-82 wasfollowectbya drastic decline1n— May and June which surprised many investors and which brought the averages to their year's low at 832.74. The second half of the year was spent in recovering the ground lost and then some, with an advance to a high of 969. 98 in November. Since that time, the market has dippe to a low of 924.44 in the early part of this month and has since been rallying toward the old highs. The Dow-Jones Rails present an entirely different pattern. They are at the moment 21 above their December 31, 1964 close of 205. 34, an advance much greater than that of the In- dustrials and, in addition, most of that advance took place in the second half of the year. The Rails hardly participated in the April-May rally and declined in June to the year's nadir of 184. 63. Since then, again unlike the Industrials, their advance to new peaks has been steady nd an intra-day high of 251. 41 was made this week. The action of the Utilities has been the saddest of the effect on these in- come-type stocks of a declining bond market. Their 9,igh fo h 164. 39, made in pril, and on recent strength to 159.84 in no re near this high. In- deed, at this week's low they were within a point of om of 149.15, and below the level at which they ended 1964. The diverse actJon of the three ct the year just en a year in which security selection was liy tar the most portfolio results. This fact is illustr have recently been r -n a\fice during the year of our recommended list. We n of the performance of that list during the year. In- cluded in the tabula 1 I a – sues on the recommended list as of December 31,1964 tl a during the year. Also shown will be the percentage appre- ciation or decline in eac ue from December 31, 1964 or date of recommendation, which- ever is later, to Dece er 31, 1965 or the date of removal, whichever is earlier. A compari- son will be made with the performance of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average for the same period. A preliminary compilation, made as of the close December 16, is interesting. Our list, as mo st investors are aware, is divided into three sections, the Price Appre- \ ciation segment, the Low-Priced Speculative segment and the High Grade Long Term Growth segment. In the Price Appreciation section, some 42 issues were on the list a year ago and 10 issues were added subseq uently, for a total of 52 issues. Of the 52 issues, 42 advanced while II IOn the list, 35 of them more than the Dow-Jones Industrials for the comparable period. Ten I' issues declined. The average appreciation for all 52 issues, including losses was 24. 1 or I more than 3 times the average appreciation for the Dow during the comparable time periods. – The Low-Priced Speculative section of the list turned in the most dramatic perform- nce. A total of 21 stocks were in the list a year ago, with 3 added during the year. Average appreciation, including all losses, was 54. 6 or about 7 1/2 times the appreciation of the Dow. Twenty of the stocks were up, 19 more than the Dow-Jones, and 4 were down. Meanwhile, the High Grade section of the list was, as could be expected, a sub-par per- former. This compilation included 12 stocks of which 6 advanced, 5 more than the Dow, and 6 declined. Overall appreciation was 6.5 vs. 8 in the Dow. In next week's letter we will ex- plore the possibilities of this relatively poor perforrna nce in high grade issues reverSing it- self in 1966. The above performance summaries are, of course, not meant to imply that such results could have been obtained by purchase of issues in the recommended list, or that similar results will be obtained by purchase in the future. Commissions are, of course, not included. The full tabulation will be available from your Account Executive shortly after the first of the yea Dow-Jones Ind. 957.85 Dow-Jones Rails 249. 55 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThIs rnl'lrket letter is IJuhhshcd for )'our eon'l.cnlcnce nd Information Rnd IS not an offel to lIel! or R 8oli('ltAtion to buy Rny IleCUrltietl discussed. Tht' informatIOn wa … obtained from sources we believe to 1… reliable. but …. e do not guarantee Its necurRC\ Walston & Co.. Inc and officers, directors or may have an Interest. In or pUr('hnse and sell the secUrities rderred to herein.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 23, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 23, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - December 23, 1965
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Walston &Co. Inc INVESlMENl BANKHS MUlUAl fUNDS MUNICIPAL SONOS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges TABELL'S MARKET LETTER c OFfiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS ., December 23, 1965 Tradition is a strong force – – in the punditry profession as elsewhere – – and tradition dictates that at year-end the stock ma rket forecaster must try to gaze into the future and predict the course of the rna rket for a year ahead. At other times, the forecaster is per- mitted to plead that his crystal ball, although clear for 'the short term, is clouded for the longer term, or vice versa, In December, however, it is expected that he will have clea-r insight running exactly fifty-two weeks into the future, A lOin, therefore, is herewith girded and an attempt is made to set down some thoughts as to the course of stock prices in 1966, Our brethren in the economic forecasting field have already consulted their oracles and their view of the outlook for1966 corporate profits is almost uniformally roseate. This view is, no dount, – comforting to those who' persist in 'theillusion'that'it is earnings rather than the expectation of earnings that determines the short-term course of stock prices, We are inclined to believe that the corporate profits outlook for 1966 is quite adequately reflected in the prices that are being paid for stocks today. We are, therefore, less impressed by the generally good profits outlook than we are by the number of potential psychological factors which could disturb market equilibrium at some time during the year, i. e., tight money, balance of payments problems, Vietnam, etc. It is a market, we think, where psychological factors will predominate more and more and it is to gauge these factors tha t we turn to our technical work. As we have pointed out in previous letters, the current upswing, forty-two months old to the Dow highs made this week, is the longest in study of individual stocks reveals that a great many market leaders have reac d hwus'de objectives. On the other hand, it must be noted that a great many are present, and it must furthermore be emphasized of market deterioration are at the moment icu u analysts have pointed with some trepidation a h eav fa ora echnical patterns a grea any of the classical signs by lr absence. A- great many ume, largely in speculative stQcks. –,!,his theRlain taken place,- in the post-war period until has peaked out and begun to con- tract. For example, in 1961 th i 'n e lta–rket was not reached until six months after the volume il, later. It would req . e sort of volume peak c M t ious part of the decline did not begin until a year 0 volume from current levels in order to produce the cast all previous tops. The above, we re Ii sounds a good deal like an attempt at equivocation and, in a sense, it is. It is very; icult a t the moment to find arguments for a sustained rise in stock prices from these levels and it is equally difficult to find cogent reasons why a decline of serious magnitude should take place. The logical forecast, therefore, seems to be that there will be very little change in the popular averages from their recent levels. Th 1965 range on the Dow-Jones Industrials was 974.16 high and 832.74 low, It seems probable that 1966 figures will be fairly close to these. To those who feel that it is nature's law that the market must go either up or down, this smacks of heresy but, actually, it is the most common post-war experience for a long upswing to be followed by a relatively narrow trading range which, in turn, leads again to another bull market. 1951-1953, 1956-1957 and 1960 are typical examples which come to mind. Such sideways rna rkets are generally produced y in market leadership and we would expect 1966 to be characterized by such shifts. Many of the groups which have led the market to date will undoubtedly relinquish their leadership at some time during the year, and other groups hitherto dormant may well replace them. One phenomenon to be expected is possible better relative action on the part of heretofore dormant blue chip issues. In our letter of last week we emphasized the fact that stock selection had been the key to 1965. This will be true, we think, to an even greater degree in 1966. A MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A. VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL. Dow-Jone sInd. 966. 36 Dow-Jones Rails 246. 84 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThIS market letter 18 pubhshed for your concmence rind information Rnn i; not an offer tl'l sell or R soIU'tIltlon to buy any Beeuritle1l diSCUS9ed Thp In formntlOn WI\'I obtained from sourc\!s we bel)('ve to L\ reliable, hut w(! do not guarantee its ,\('('urney W,llston 8.. Co, Ine nnn Its offi('ci s, dlrL''Wr'l 01 emJlioyees rna)' hnve an mterest In or purchase Rnd sell the secuntu's referred to herem. WN301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – December 31, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – December 31, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - December 31, 1965
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Fr Wdlston &Co. TABEll'S MARKET INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS lETTER December 31, 1965 For some years now, we have studied the familiar seasonal tendency of the stock market to stage a year-end rally, and it has been the custom of this letter each December to pOint out some of the cmclusions that can be derived from a study of this phenomenon. We have suggested that an exhaustive study of chart patterns since the Dow-Jones Industrial average was first computed in 1897 indicated that such a rally, however minuscule, had invariably taken place. This year the apparent starting date of the rally was on December 6th at 924. 44 in the Dow. A number of interesting facts about the market action of the year end may be noted. an-1f -As sta tecfabove identifiable yearend rally taken place year since 1897. This rally has often been of great magnitude with advances as great as 28/0 having been recorded. It has also, on occasion, continued with only minor interruptions for as long as six months into the new year. However, on other occasions it has been of only a few days duration, reaching a top extremely early. Thus, in 1960 and 1962, the rally reach ed a peak in the first week in January. In 1961, 1963, and 1964 it continued into the latter part of February or March. In 1965, the rally peak was reached in early February. (2) – There has been a persistent tendency for the rally to begin early in years when the market has been up and late in years when the market has been down. In recent upward years, 1959 and 1963 are examples, the rally commenced from early in December. In 1962, it began late in the year. This tendency apparently held true this year with the De- ,cember 6th starting date. (\\ 0 (3) – The important thing to watch in a' in the early months of the new year is the low for the previous Decembe. is 10 s been broken in forty years out of the past sixty-seven. In e 0 se ty cases, it was broken in January and February. Since 1937 it has ne n b en later than mid-March, with t-t – December lbw- for the first 2 1/2 months of good that this low will not be broken. For example, in recent ears e January 1962. In 196 , e was broken early in January 1960 and – was never broken. 1965, as noted above, was unusual with the 1 of 850.19 being broken in June when the Dow reached an intra-day low of (4) – In years whe e December low has been broken, the subse J.uent trend has been downward two-third of the time. 1960 and 1962, of course, are typical cases. Again, 1965 is an exception. (5) – The magnitude of the rally is an important clue as to the year's market trend. For example, an advance of 10/0 or more from the December lows has been followed by an upward or neutral market in twenty-eight of the thirty-three years that such an advance has occurred. An advance of less than 10/0 from the December low before an identifiable correc ion takes place has been followed by a downward market in twenty-two of thirty-four years. In 1961, 1963, and 1964, the year-end rally approximated 10/0. In both 1960 and 1962 it was under 5/0. (6) – The length of time in which the rally continues into the new year is also important. For example, in eighteen years the rally has continued into March or later. In sixteen of these eighteen years the eventual trend was upward. In 1964, the year-end rally continued inco March and in 1961 and 1963, into late February. In the coming year, therefore, the December low an important point to watch. If the present rally tops out in early January and breaks this low, it would be a strong indication of probable market weakness.. A like indication would be a failure of the Dow to advance 10/0 or to approximately (iU On the other hand, if a rally continues into late February or March, or reaches above Dan extension of the upswing might be indicated. Dow-Jones Noon Ind. – 969.04 Dow-Jones Noon Rails – 246.74 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter IS pubhshcd for your convenience and mformation and 1; not an offer to sell or R solicitation to buy nny securltieA dlseUIIR'!d The In formation WR.'1 ohtmned from sources we bdieve to t.t' rellsble, hut we do not guarantee Its Rcrumry \Valston & Co. InC' and Its officels, dlrt''oors or emJ'loyees may have an Interest m or purchase and 'lell the securities refel red to herein. WNSOl

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