Tabell’s Market Letter – December 13, 1965

Walston &Co. Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL fUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER December 13, 1965 Despite the fact that the Dow-Jones Industrial reached new high territory at 969.98 just a month ago, the stock market has not been a one-way street for the last four years. The Dow-Jor.es Industrial Average reached a high of 741. 30 in November 1961. It was not until late 1963, jus tab 0 u t two years later, that this high was bettered. If one had bought a representative list of investment stocks at around the highs of four years ago, how would he have fared at today's prices In that four-year period, between 1961 and 1965, the Dow-Jones average of 30 industrial stocks had advanced approximately 310/0. In order not to handpick our list to suit the purpose, we have selected the thirty Industrial companies in – . -America with–th-e–b..iggest sales in the year of 1964. This list was taken from a compilation – i made by Fortune Ma'i;azine and includes only industrial companies; not banks, insurance com -, panies or utilities. Western Electric, an American Telephone subsidiary, was included in th list of the thirty biggest. In the list below we have substituted American Telephone for West- ern Electric, which has no public market. The list is arranged according to the best price performance since the 1961 highs. Prices are approximate, but have been adjusted for splits, stock dividends, etc. 1961 Dec. High 1965 Change 1961 Dec. 0/0 High 1965 Change Chrysler 15 54 260 Shell Oil 47 63l/2 35 Boeing 57 138 142 Gulf Oil 44 58 32 Radio Corp. 22 47 114 Westinghouse Elec. 50 63 26 Socony Mobil General Motors Lockheed Stand. Oil of Indiana International Harvest. 53 58 39 29 28 95 79 103 78 66 69 46 1/2 60 44 1/2 59 National Dairy 79 Int. 41b5 b4t . la 4 Uthi\)y\ Car . 72 86 518 491/2 62 70 9 7 -3 -3 Stand. Oil of N. J. Gener.al General Electric 52 82 58 33 471/2 81 113 Tire 47 45 -4 . ..E0 59 55 -7 0 ef. Tel.& Tel. 70 61 –13- DuPont 171 Armour 54 421/2 21 Stand. Oil of General Dynamics 4 9 Bethlehem Steel 49 36 -27 Proctor & Gamble 102 69 1/2 33 Texaco CY-80 36 U.S. Steel 91 48 1/2 -47 The hst has gain d 7 ich is somewhat better than the gain of 310/0 in the Dow-Jone Average. However, the ection of individual stocks would have made a tremendous differ- ence. For example, a urchase of the first fifteen issues would have resulted in a percentag gain of 770/0. An investment of 1,000 in each issue, or 15,000 total, would have a value of 26,550 today. If, however, the investor bought the second fifteen issues in the list, he woul have found thathis original 15,000 investment had decreased 30/0 and was worth only 14,650 after four years. The main conclusion to be drawn from the above compilation is that it is poss ible for individual issues to move against the main trend. This happened above when average prices were moving higher. It can also happen when average prices are moving lower. If the above sounds familiar, it should. ILappeared in this letter. on pecemtJer 8, .– The only things that have been changed are the dates, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average fig- ures, the stocks in the table (the 1965 Fortune compilation was used), and the comparison periods. (the original compilation used the 1956 highs vs. the price in December 1961). The 1961 survey showed substantially the same sort of results as those noted above. Why do we repeat the letter at this time Simply because investors persist in refusing to believe the conclusion drawn in the last paragraph. The letter, remember, WUE written in 1961, a few months before the worst market break in 25 years. As the compilation above shows, the philosophy expressed then proved true despite that break. It will prove true again regardless of what market vicissitudes may be over the next 12 months. Dow-Jones Ind. 952.72 DowJones Rails 244.72 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Thlll market letter IS pubhshed for )our con'('ntcnce tnd mformatlon nn.1 l not ,\n offer to sell or a 'l()h(,ltt-tion to buy flny seeUfltle!l diseusoed The 111 formntlOn Wf\'1 obtnlnerl from sources we bti1c\-c to I. rfhable. hut ….. e flo not guarAntee Its RCeUnl.C\ \\'nJton l( Co, Inc, ano It., offiet'rs. 01 cm)'lloyees mny havc nn rnterC'lt In or .md .,tll th(! hl!eurriles refel red to hcr cln WN301