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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 04, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 04, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - May 04, 1965
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MEMORANDUM TO Account Executives, Branch Managers, Officers and Department Heads FROM Edmund W. Tabell, N. Y. May 4, 1965 At the end of every month each Account Executive receives copies of the Tabell Recommended List. The list is kept up-to-date and every stock on the list is followed through from its o;iginal recommendation to its removal rom the list. Additions and removals are noted in the weekly TabeH letter. While the recommcndations are for long term and intermediate term holding rather than or trading turns, it is lnteresting to note how the price action of the list compares with the DowJones Industrial Average for the four-month period between the end of 1964 and April 30th 1965. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average in this period rose fI-om 874.13 to 922.31, or a rise 0(5 1/2. The Recommended List, as of'April 30th, contained 71 issues. During the four-month period several issues were dropped and several added so It was necessary to adjust both the price action of each individual stock and the Industrial Average for the period held. On that basis, the rise in the'Dow-Jones Industrials was 5, and the rise in the entire list was 15.1 or three times better than the averages. ObvlOusly, like the Jlverage, this figure includes both gains and losses. Quite a number of issues showed much better than average gains during the four- month period. For example, on the Price Appreciation portion of our Recommended list, which consists of issues of medium quality, the rise was 14.2 compared to 5. 1 in the Averages, adjusting for additions and removals. Several individual issues showed price appreciation of 25 or more during the four-month period as compared to a 5 rise in the Averages. Better acting issues of the 45 stocks 10 the Price Appreciation sector include Copperweld Steel Crowell Collier Eaton Mfg. International Mlnerals Koppers Co. McGraw Edison Newmont Mimng Scovill Mfg. Swingline, In. Vornado, Inc. 12/31/64 52 3/4 25 1/8 43 1/ 4 3S 55 51 45 36 7/S 37 1/2 30 l/S 4/30/65 68 1/2 34 3/4 54 1/ S 56 1/s 6S 5/S 6S 1/s 55 7/S 4S 3/S 4S 3/S 47 3/4 Rise 30 38 25 4S 25 34 24 31 290/0 59 The Low-Priced Speculative section of the list contained 11 stocks. These showed a rise of 21. 20/0 compared to 4.9 in the Average, or 4. 3 times better than the Dow.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - May 10, 1965
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Walston &- Co. INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFfiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER May 10, 1965 The Dow-Jones Industrial Average moved ahead through most of last week, reaching an intra-day high of 938.12 on Thursday, slightly above the 928-930 figure previously men- tioned in this letter as an upside objective. Breadth and volume action on the advance was somewhat unimpressive withouT.'IDreadth index lagging tleaverage on its move into new high ground and volume being decidedly lower than tha t on1Yrevious advances. This is, of course, to be expected at the present mature stage of the market and is an indication that selectivity may increase. Accordingly, it is necessary contmually to revise our recommended list. Revbn (48), reviewed adied last week t,o our list, an!LAluminum Co. of America (74 7/8), was added to our Qu-ality list. This week, recoriimen- ' … , ded just a year ago at 25 5/8, reached its long term technical upside objective of 54 and is, therefore, being deleted. Three other stocks reached or approached intermediate term technical objectives. Copperweld Steel (71) recommended in January 1964 at 38 3/4, Spar- tans Industries (27 1/8), recommended early this year at 19 1/ 8 and Swingline, Inc. (49 3/4) recommended in August 1963 at 35 3/4. While these stocks may require some consolidation, they all have longer term obJectives above current levels and are being retained in the recommended list. REVLON, INC. A number of Wall Street phenomena are calculated security analyst SOme- what cynical about the scientific pretentions of his professi8n.th icl history of Revlon common stock is a claSSiC example. It was to e ic in 1955 at an ad- Justed price of 3.00 per share. Since that time botfH.t s lOgS bave posted in- creases in every year and will do so again dy ncome data presents a sim- ple and rather impressive history. e- .The.oJOiginalotfer.ing pr.i.ce,.was – , something less than five anct;the rationale for this even-then-Iow ratio was that cosmetics was sort 0 – too dependent on fashion or single products to be A , t growth could be expected. Six years later the stock sold for 84. Earnings had s, ourse, but the main factor behind the rise was the fact that the earnings mult Ie gone from 5 to 37. As ever, the market was ready with a rationale. In the afflue ociety, cosmetics had become almost a necessity. Population was growing and the population of cosmetic users was growing even faster. Lucrative for- eign markets were waiting to be opened up. Revlon, indeed, should be considered a growth company par excellence. A year later it sold for 31. This price was thirteen times that year's earnings and the stock has been selling a- round this multiple for the past three years. There is also a conventional wisdom which explains this fact. The reasoning runs that certain items in the toiletry field have incurred heavy promotional expenses and price cutting, and tha t this type of selling, done through supermarkets and discount houses, is cutting heavily into Revlon's traditional higher-price cosmetics outlets. Therefore, it is said, Revlon's profit margins will be under considerabl pressuTrhee. amusing thing is thatthere is an element of truth in all of the.above Cosmetics are, indeed, subject to the vagaries of fashion, but Revlon has shown a consistent ability to anticipate and create fashion. There has indeed been severe price cutting in numerous toiletry items, notably hair spray. However, Revlon's true strength lies in such items as lipstick, make-up, nail polish and perfume. These items are sol d by brand name and generally can be maintained at a high markup through dealer franchises. In this area, . the highly promoted Revlon name is a major asset. What is basically true is that cosmetics is indeed a growth industry for the reasons mentioned above and others, and that Revlon's record in this industry is excellent. For 1965 per share earnings should show their tenth consecutive increase to 2.90 from 2. 68 in 196 and the technical pattern of the stock has improved sharply with an upside objective of over 100 possible if 50 is reached. MeanWhile, the present price, at 16 times estimated 1965 earn ings, is historically 10w.With.out.any elaborate rationale these simple facts qualify the stock for addition to our recomm-endedoJ.ist. Dow-Jones Ind. 932. 52 Dow-Jones Rails 213. 39 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This market letter is published (or your convemence and information and IS not an offer to sell or II. solicitation to buy rlny eeeurlUes discussed The m formation WI'Ll! obtained from sourcl2'S we b(.1ieve to Le rehable. but we do not guarantee Ita accuracy Walston &. Co Inc. and 1tS offieers. dlreetors or employeefl may have an Interest In or purchue alld sell the securities referred to herein WNSOl

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - May 17, 1965
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Walston &Co. —–Inc —-INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNOS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 17, 1965 At the week's intra-day high of 944.82, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average reached new high territoryfor the fifth successive week. In so doing, the market continued the tech- nical pattern that has been in force for the two and a half years since the Cuban crisis low of 549. 65. Eliminating the shaLpWni.tia!1 rise, the Industrial Average since thaCtiHl.l!lfiilsmoved ahead in a series of relatively modest advances and corrected itself internally by a series of even more modest corrections. The greatest decline in the last two and a half years was the decline from the September 1963 high of 767.24 to the Kennedy assassination low of Novem- ber, 1963. A large part of this decline took place in one day and amounted to 7.4. It was itlat.carrietlrom310.. . .,. This aavance of 17.6 was the sharpest rise of the series. The average rise of the two and a half year period has been slightly over 10, and the average correction less than 5. The present rise from the February low of 877.48 to the present high is slightly over 7 and, so far, is one of the smaller advances of the series. From a technical point of view, it is difficult to anticipate a further steep advance at the moment as far as the averages are concerned. The advance has carried above our 930 objective for the move and some consolidation would appear indicated at this level. If the technical pattern of the past two and a half years continues, the indication would be for a correction to the next support level (around 910-905) followed by a consolidation period of a couple of months followed by an advance to new high territory. Obviously, this pattern is not going to continue indefinitely. The technical background must be watched carefully for signs. of signs of have appeared as yet, but the tec'hmcal actlOn of the marke n P!W'es t advance 1S begm- ning to give some preliminary warning signals that r e e m serious if they conti- nue. Our concern is centered mainly in the action of urea t . ex. The breadth index re- presents the entire market while an average l ! i 'hke J Industrials represents 30 in- vestment blue chip companies. The basic the ind ket breadth action is that as long as the investment issues, as 0 0 Industrial-Average; move in the same direction as the general . breadth index, the trend in force will continue. It is only when there a e between these two indices that a warning of a possible change in t ely, these warning signals are usually given be- fore the market strial Average graph and the breadth index have been in uptrend channels s e he edy assassination lows. They are still in uptrend channels. However, for the last th ee eks, the breadth index has failed to confirm the new highs reached by the Averag his pattern could change, but this is the longest period of non- confirmation since the advance started. Technical action on the next market decline and subsequent rally must be watched closely. In the meantime, individual issues continue their diverse action with the majority still in various stages of an uptrend. Of the issues in our recommended list, Litton Industrie (95 5/8), reached its first technical objective at 96. This-stock has a much higher long term potential and retention is advised along with buying on minor price declines. Mohasco (217/8) has had a sizable price advance since its original recommendation about a year ago at 13 1/2 Despite its rise, we continue to believe the stock has a higher potential from both the funda- mental and technical viewpoint. The intermediate term technical potential is 29. We would conti!1ue to hold and buy on minor price declines. – Since our last issue of the monthly recommended list on May 3rd, three issues have broken out on the upside of long term potential base patterns. Fruehauf Corp. (36 1/2) has been holding in the 27-34 area for almost two years and has finally moved out of the range to reach a high of 367/8 during the week. Earnings, which have also been in a three-year pla- teau, are expected to move higher. The long term price potential, from a technical viewpoin is 44-49. Revlon (50), which was added to our recommended list two weeks ago at 45 1/8, has broken out of a three-year trading area between 49 and 31 and reached 50 on Friday to confirm a long term uptrend. Hewlett-Packard (30 1/4), recommended at 205/8 in Septem- ber,1963, earlier in the.m(w.dh,,crok-eLout of the 16-27 range in which it held sincelate1962. The long term technical upside' obJective now becomes 41 for the intermediate term and 59 for the longer term. The 1961 high was 53. DOW-Jones Ind. 939.62 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 209. 50This market letter is published for your convemence Bnd mformation and is not fl.n offer to sell or fL solicitAtion to buy any eeeurities diseus&ed The information was obtamed from sources we b.heve to 11' reliable. but we do not guarantee its 81IUraey, Walston & Co Inl and Its officers. dIrectors or Vemployees may have an lftU!rest in or purehlUle and sell the seeurltwlI referred to herem, -WNSOI

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 21, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 21, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - May 21, 1965
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Walston &CO. Inc ;,…..;…….;;….;;. INVESTMENT …..NKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange end Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchan98s OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER May 21, 1965 Over the, past few months this letter has consistently noted the shift in leadership which appears t.e be taking place, out of blue chip issues, which had been in the forefront of the advance through 1963 and 1964, and into secondary and tertiary issues, which still appear to represent good investment value. Since it does not seem that this tendency has altered appreciably of latel.the1iltiyer who by reason of regulation or preference, is restricted solely to primary grade equities has found himself confronted with a shortage of relatively attractive investment media. There are, however, eScceptions to this rule, and two higher grade stocks, which appear attractive for new buying at the present time, are discussed below. — Aluminum Company of America (77 -1 / 8) was 'added-to'oUl;'high;-qualityRe-coinmeno'eQ List two. weeks ago, and National Cash Register (88-3/ 8) is being added herewith. The aluminum group, at the moment, presents somewhat of a paradox. Despite the fact that the outlook for 1965 is as bright as it has been in years, most stocks are selling more cheaply in relation to earnings than they have at any time in the past half-decade. This -situation presents an interesting opportunity. Growth in domestic aluminum usage continues, and, although it may not expand at the 10/0 rate of the 1950's, a 7/0 annual expansion through 1970 is expected. Moreover, the factors that masked this growth in the latter part of the 1950 ' s are conspicuous by their absence. The key too-the situation is the fact that the supply-demand equation in aluminum has been brought into line,and present conservative expansion plans indicate that it will remain there. This has resulted in a noticeable strengthening of product prices which, to the companies who derive a large portion of sales from fabricated products, can mea an i t increase in earning power. ((C Alcoa, of course, is the leading factor in 34/0 of all aluminum-produced and, with expansion 'd y, accounting for some ough 1967, it should be able to maintain that share of the market. in 1964, and first quarter Cash flow was over 7.00 a earnings and cash generatieo' c when 57 was reported (YI nsiderable improvement in both 1\tgie' coming year. The stock is unques,tionably the quality National Ca annals. Sales' hav 'n e 's u roup. – oment, presents a history not uncommon in corporat ed since 1955 and cash flow has snown a respectable increase, yet per s e a gs over the past decade have been virtually level. Explora- tion of all the reasons his decline in margins would require a more complete analysis, but certainly a large ortion of the pressure on margins is centered on one area—heavy research and development expenditures amounting to over 10 per share in the five years through 1963. A great portion of this R&D has gone into computer development, and the relative unprofitabilityof NCR's computer operations is, of course, tied into IBM's dominance of the industry. With the current rapid technological change in Electronic Data Processing, it is impossible to say at this time what the future holds, but it is possible to suggest that NCR has basic strengths which augur well for its future. These strengths in the fact that the company dominates the cash register field, much as IBM does the computer industry, and is a major factor in accounting machines, This strength can become more important as time goes on. Technology has developed computers able to process data at fantastic speeds. The major problem to be solved overlhe next decade is getting the data to the computer. This bottleneck can be broken by producing data in hard form, i. e., a form that can be read by a machine, at the point of transaction. It is, therefore, worthy of note that the cash register is far and away the most common pOint-of-transaction device in U. S. business. NCR has pioneered the development of total systems, which coordinate point-of-transaction devices with computer)! in order to simplify record keeping. Meanwhile, near term prospects appear promising, especially in the foreign area which accounts for almost half total volume. In 1965, earnings should show a significant improvement over the '2J6'g of 1'9'64, and, from a technical point of view, the stock has recently broken out of a three-year base, with a long term upside objective of 144 to 188. The stock sold at a high of 142-1/2 in 1961. It is suggested for purchase in quality Dow-Jones Ind. 922.01 – ANTHONY W DDW'…d'tM.Qtt!r . h ,,;y convenience and mformatlon and Is not an offer to I'!eI1 or ft fOriiULtlOh was 0 n rom sources we tx.o(leve to be reliable, but we do not guarantee Its enJllloyee. may have an Interest In or putchue and sell the securities referred to herein. TABELL The lft. or WN.8Dl ./

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 01, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 01, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - June 01, 1965 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - June 01, 1965 page 2
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Walston &- Co. —–Inc —– INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONOS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFices COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER June 1, 1965 The market declined'shaTply over the past week, and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average reached an intra-day low of 904.82 on Thursday. At this level the Average had entered a strong support area in the 910-900 range. This support area is off the top of the two-and-a-half month trading shelf between 911. 80 and 877.48, formed during the period between February and April. This was finally penetrated on the upside late in April and resulted in the advance to 944.82 earlier this month. It is technically logical for a decline to halt off the top of a previous broad consolidation area. Also the 40 point decline in nine trading days was extremely sharp. It resulted in most of our shorter term technical indicators entering oversold territory. The upward trend pattern in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, that'started in late 1962, is still intact. Since the Cuban crisis low of 1962, the Industrial moved ahead in a series of relatively modest advances (averaging 10) and corrected itself internally by a series of even more modest declines (averaging about 5), followed by a consolidating phase of two or three months and then an advance to new high territory. There have been ten such advances and declines in the past two-and-a-half years. The most recent series was the 7.7 advance from the February low of 877.48 to the recent high of 944.82. The present decline from 944.82 to Thursday's low of 904.82 was 4.7. Both of these moves fall into the two-and-a-half year pattern. If this pattern continues, the market should consolidate around this level and be followed by another advance into new high territory. Obviously, this pattern is not going to continue line a high will be reached and, after the subsequent to reach new high territory, and the next decline wilff6arr this happens, the uptrend channel is destroyed, Dow Theory reasoning. The only trouble is that to probably result in missing a good part of Wei Somewhere along the n market will be unable e e vious low. When n 's in effect. This is old a sequence of events would al indicators might be able to anticipate such a development As yet, there is' orily one technical in ar – readth should furnish the clue. s'om-e- dOubt on of the advance continuing new high territory. Our breadth index did not confirm the adv ce f ne's Industrial Average into new high territory earlier in the mont. i e ce before in the last two-and-a-half years. It occurred in Septe 6 e Average reached a high of 767. 24 and was followed by the Kennedy assassin '0 I f 710. 83 in November. With the Johnson confidence boom, the breadth index rever at th.e turn of the year and has been in an uptrend channel since the end of 1963. At t moment, we would be inclined to wait for another testing of the breadth index on the next rally. Inability of the breadth index to reach new high territory, despite a new high in the Average, would be a definite warning signal. In the past such warning signals have occurred quite some time before the advance topped out and there was the opportunity to lighten holdings before the decline actually occurred. Technical action must be observed closely on the next advancing phase. Inability to reach new high territory by both the Industrial Average and the breadth index would be definitely discouraging. With the market showing no signs of the rampant over-speculation that occurred in 1961-1962, the action of individual issues continues to be much more important than the broad moves of the general market. We note that a considerable number of individual issue have reached their upside potentials but have not, from a technical viewpoint, built up dangerous tops. If a top pattern is developing, it will take more time to form. At the same time, there are a sizable number of issues that indicate higher levels over both the intermediate and longer term. Stock of this type could move higher while the remainder of the market consolidates. In our Recommended List, a number of issues continue to show interesting potentials Besides the recent recommendations of Aluminum Company of America (76-1/2), National Cash Register (90), and Revlon (48-3/8), there are a number of other issues with above average attraction. They include Fruehauf (36), MGM (42-1/8), Sundstrand ( 23-3/4), and Warner Brothers Company (34-3/4). In the lower priced more speculative field, we continue to like American Bosch (22), Audio Devices (16-3/4), and Mohasco (20-3/4). A new monthly list can be obtained from your Account Executive next week. Dow-Jones Ind. – 918.04 EDMUND W. TABELL Dow-Jones Rails – 205.04 WALSTON & CO., INC. Thts market letter 18 published for your convemence Rnd Information and is not an offer to sell or A solicitation to buy any l51!Curtties dUUU8Sed The In(ormntlon was obtamed from sources we hdlCve to l … reliable, but we do not guarnntee Its accuracy Walston &. Co Inc. And Its officers. dlrE'etoro; or em.,toYeEs may have an lRterest in or Jlurchase and sell the securlt.les referred to herein, WN801 Walston &Co. Inc INVESTMENT SANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONOS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS EDMUND ,-W. RECOMMENDED LIST June 1, 1965 This edition of our Recommended List gives long term technical upside objectives and indicated support levels in cases where such levels exist. An asterisk in the Upside Objective column indicates either that the objective is unclear, or that the stock has not yet broken out of its base formation. QUALITY & LONG TERM GROWTH Close Qual- Upside Sup- Close Qual- Upside Sup- .. 5/28/65 J!y Ob. port 5/28/65 ity Obj. port Alum CoAmer 76-1/2 B . 70-65 Nat Cash Reg 90 A 140-180 85-80 Amer. Can 46 B Norfolk & W 126 A 155-170 125-118 Gen'l Elec. Gulf Oil 103-3/8 A 56- 3/8 A 130 95 Reynolds Tob 41-1/8 A 66-92 50-45 Royal Dutch 41 A 86 39-3fJ PRICE APPRECIATION Close Qual- Upside Sup- Close Qual- Upside 5/28/65 ity Obj port 5/28/65 ity Ob Atchison, Top 31-5/8 A- 46-52 28 McDermott 41 B 48-80 Beaunit Corp. Cenco Inst Clark Equip. 43-1/4 B 32 -1/2 B 77 A- 57-60 42 ,. '0 50-45 McGraw Ed. 31-1/2 4- 35-40 Mesabi Trust 13-7/8 22 MGM 42-1/8 70 Clevite Cluett Peab. 45-7/8 B 57-100 72-3/8 B 92 Metromedia 37-1/2 B 64 NewmontM 54 -1/2 A- 62 Copperweld S 33-3/4 B 47 N Amer.Car 32 A Crowell ColI Denver, R. G. 33-3/4 B 20-3/4 B 45-58 30-28 Raytheon 28-43 Revlon 24 48-3/8 A- 100 Disney, Walt 56-1/2 B 65-100 Reynolds Met 43-1/4 B 51-80 Eaton Mfg. 52 B 78 Riegel Paper 23 B 34 Elec. Stor. B 50-3/8 A- 56-80 SchIumberger 79-1/2 A 90-130 ElPaso N. G. 20-5/8 B First Charter 21-7/8 ;l Scovill Mfg 50-7/8 B 65 Shell Oil 63-5/8 A 120 Fruehauf 36 B 44-49 Signode Corp 30 A- 33-50 Gen'l Dyn 43 56-84 Southern Rwy 55 B 77-104 Hewlett Pack 28-1/2 B 40-60 Spartans Ind 28-1/2 36 Illinois Cent 53-3/4 B 78-114 Stevens, J P 50 -1/4 B 75 Int. Min.Chem. 54-3/4 A- Storer Broad 48-1/2 B 54-70 Kansas City 40-1/8 A- ;' 40-38 Sundstrand 23-3/4 B Koppers Co. 64-1/2 B 80-100 Swinglme 4 48-3/8 B 70 Korvette,E. J. 43-7/8 B 60-80 43-40 United Fruit 19-1/2 B Litton Ind. 95-5/8 B 96-128 Vulcan Mat. 19-7/8 B 28 Lykes Bros. 23 B 32-60 20 Warner Bros Co '35-3/8 B 50 Support 37-35 30 53-50 45 LOW-PRICED Close Qual- Upside Sup- 5/28/65 Obj. port Amer. Bosch Audio Dev. 'Camp Chib. Foote Min. Gt. West. Fin. Int'l. Pack. Ling-Temco 22 16-3/4 4-15/16 21-3/8 10-3/4 13-5/8 24-1/2 B- . B B 40-50 ' 29 44-62 21 SPECULATIVE Close Qual- Upside 5/28/65 ity Obj. Microwave Mohasco 10-3/4 B 20-3/4 B 29 National Can 25-1/4 B 50-60 Pacific Pete 10-5/8 B- Sbd. W. Air 10-1/2 C 14-20 Univ. Match 16-3/8 B Varian Assoc. 17 B w 0' Support Th B II t 's IlUbhshcd (or )our 111111 l11formllllon lind II not .In olTu til 'ell I \ … tlon to Luy 1\1l ,(,purltles fhscUSM,,.j. The mfOlmatlO1l from source.. w/.. iwh,vc to I.. Iclmhlc, hut t' ,lu not Io!u.lrll,ntl-t' Its .l('IUI.I\ \'al,ton & Co, IIll'. .\Tul It; officer!!, dUI'l'tor'l 01 cmllio,,es mn) hRve nn Interest In or purchll.M' an.1 ,1,11 thl' ,ccuntlt.'; rt(elIP1 tn h ..rlrn WN-916

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 07, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 07, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - June 07, 1965
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Walston &Co. Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges ';f-';'r OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS lABELL'S MARKET LETTER June 7, 1965 On Friday we sent the following wire to all Walston offices One of our short-term technical indicators tells us how much the market is over-sold or over-bought at a particular time. This indicator, which is based on advancing and declining stocks, reached minus 3300 at last night's close. At this level it is as low as it was at the bottom of the Cuban crisis low and at the bottom of the Kennedy assassination low. This would indicate that the market, at least on a short term basis, is deeply over-sold and in the next few days could turn around sharply. The rise will be selective. An issue with an interesting technical pattern is mentioned below. E. J. Korvette, Inc., was originally recommended by this letter in January at a price of 42. Subsequently, it'moved ahead sharplyto n-ews developrrfertt-s-have- brought the stock back to support at around the original recommended level. It, therefore, becomes worthwhile to re-examine the original recommendation. As we pointed out in January, when one buys Korvette, one is buying a concept. Korvette is unique in the retailing field. It is neither a discounter nor a department store but rather a unique retailing operation that combi nes the price appeal and mass merchandising concept of the discounter with the broad line, general attractiveness, and—recently—credi availability of a modern department store operation. What has been the success of this concept The table below compares Korvette's growth over the past five and ten years with that of Sears, Roebuck, America's leading retailer, Federated Department Stores, the leading department store operator, and Interstate Department Stores, a typical discounter. For comparative purposes in this and all subse- quent tables, Korvette's fiscal year ending July is facal years of the others ending in January of the s'ame year. Sales Sales s crease /0 Increase 1955-6 1959-60 4-5 955-1964 1959-1964 E.J.Korvette Stores 17.8 – 7. E 9 3973 – 7.3 360 Federated Dept. Stores 1215' 126 60 The figures speak orvette's sales growth has far outstripped that of other leadi ng retail p i i mewhat better than that of Interstate, a pure discount house. A tabulatlOn of O'''–n'r soo re shows the same story. As the table below indicates, Korvette's earnings n has been consistently superior to that of the other retailing companies. Earnings Per Share Increase Increase 1955-6 1959-60 1964-5 1955-1964 1959-1964 E. J. Korvette .12 .74 2.30-E 1817 310 Sears, Roebuck .95 1. 32 2.00 110 52 Interstate Dept. Stores .59 1. 98 230 Federated Dept. Stores 1. 53 1. 98 3. 10 101 45 Despite this fact, Korvette sells at a considerable discount from both Federated and Sears and at a price not much higher than that of Interstate despite the fact that it is a much more broadly based operation and has shown better sales and earnings growth. The table below shows comparative price earnings ratios. Current Price Earn! share 1964-5 p! E Ratio E.J. Korvette 42 2.30-E 18.3 Sears, Roebuck 70 2.00 35.0 Interstate Dept,Stor,es 33 1. 98 16 6 Federated Dept. Stores 73 3.10 23.5 These figures, it would seem, attest to the success of Korvette's retailing philosophy. We continue to estimate earnings for 1964-5 at approximately 2. 30 per share and look for further growth in 1966. Recent acquisitions should further integrate the operation and make for additional long range profitability. The stock continues to have a long term technical objective of 60-80, and is again suggested for inclusion in growth accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. – 900.87 Dow-Jones Rails – 200.47 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO., INC. ThiS market letter i8 IJubhshed (or )our ('onv('nl('n('(' nnd In(ormatlon and IS not lUI offer to sell or a solllltatJon to buy any lleeUtities discussed The In formntlon was obtmncd from SOUf'('S hdlCve to I rehnhle, but we do not gull.rRntee Its 1\C'C'urRC'\ \\fllston . Co, Ine Rn It officelS, dlret'tors or emJ'loyeea may have an mtereat In or purchase Rnd sell the st'l'untu'!' re(l'rren to heft'ln WNSOI

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 14, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 14, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - June 14, 1965
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W—-a–l-s–tIonnc–&—C–o–. INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges Of-fleES COASl 10 CO'Sl AND OnflSeAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER June 14, 1965 – During the past eighteen trading days the stock market has suffered the steepest de- cline since the Cuban 11. 6. The drop from the May 14th intra-day high of 944.82 to the Thursday intra-day low of 869.35,- on the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, was 7.9. This is slightly greater than the Kennedy assassination decline of 7.4 in November, 1963. Incidentally, that decline also occurred in eighteen trading days. The present decline has resulted in a downside penetration of the 200-day moving aver age line of the Dow-Jones Industrials. This means the Industrial Average is selling below the average price of the last 200 trading days. Obviously, this implies a loss of upside mo- mentum. The 200-day line is 887 decline,has ed'me-upward trendCchannel that has been in effect since the-Cuban crisis low of October, 1962. While these two developments are unfavorable, the steep d cline has also resulted in bringing the m,!rket down into sharply oversold territory on both our short term and inter- mediate term rate of change technical indicators. The level reached by these technical indi- cators is comparable to the oversold condition reached at both the Kennedy assassination am Cuban crisis lows. When these indicators reach present levels. there has been. on most past occasions,at least a technical rally of fairly sizable proportions. The first warning signal of market deterioration was given last month when our breadt index failed to confirm the new high in the Industrial Average. This is usually a warning sig- nal and in the past has occurred six months to a year before the market suffers a major de- cline, When the market moved somewhat above its upside objective at last months I high of 944.82, there was no top pattern at that level. immediately and penetrated both the 905-900 support level and the 885- 0 witho!lt hesi- tating. This type of spear formation top made it 1 r ma nical viewpoint, to assess the possible downside projection of the decli il a r part of the decline had already occurred. The Industrial Average d a . ra- high of 911. 80 in early Feb- ruary and the count across the five-month p 0 -t the -905 level indicates, from a' tech' nical,viewpointra.downside ,potential . .s-the-lowest-eowns t can be figured from the would appear doubtful that the d s deeply oversold at the moment it would be reached before at least a tech- nical rally. It ho dustrial Average .'n' t c i ed as the downside risk at the moment. For the In e tential than those mentioned above would necessitate a rally back to the 0v broaden the top. If that.level is reached, it would be necessary to take ano er at the market. . While the marke s given warning signals by the divergent action of the breadth ind and the breaking of the 200-day moving average, these indicators usually give signals before a major market decline. With the .market deeply oversold at the moment, the averages could move at least ba'ck to the tops and individual issues could reach new high territory. In the 1956-1957 top, for example, the averages reached a triple top around the 525 level and the technical indicators .signalled warnings long before the last top was reached. This also oc- curred in the 1959-1960 top. In 1961-1962, a divergence in breadth occurred in August, 1961 eight months before the market started its decline. There were several 60/0 to 7 corrections during this period. The breaking of the 200-day moving average occurred three months be- fore the decline. There was plenty of opportunity to sell on strength once the warning signals were given. This letter has been suggesting for quite some time Selling on gtrength objectives on individual stocks were reached. We would continue this policy at an accelerate pace, but would continue to hoM and add attractive stocks to our list at favorable price levels. There ar several stocks we have been watching for some time. We will add them to our rec ommended list if the leMets;tmen,j;ioned below are reached. Buy At Buy At American Hospital S. (27 1/8) American Potash (40 1/2) Automatic Canteen (20 3/4) 25 39 19 Interstate Motor Freight (29) 28 Perkin- Elmer (50) 48 Pfaudler Permutit (-30 l/S) 28 Bobbie Brooks (23 3/8) International Paper (32) 22 31 Radio Corp. Wallace & Tiernan (33 1/2) 32 (30 7/8) 29 Dow-Jones Ind. 881. 70 Dow-Jones Rails 195.80 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. senThiS market letter 18 publi!lhed for your convenience and information and is not an offer to or R BOIlcitatlon to buy any eeeuritiee dll!alA8ed. The in- (ormation was obtained from sources we believe to tl' rehable. but we do not guarRntee its accurRcy. WRleton & Co.. Inc. Rnd Its officers. directors or employees ml\.Y have an interest in or purchase and sell the seeurltles referred to herem. WNSOl ,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 21, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 21, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - June 21, 1965
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Walston- Inc, &Co. INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS MembersNew Stock and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO .COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER June 21, 1965 The 21-day decline which.had brought the Dow-Jones- Industrial Average from a May 14th high of 944.82 to a low'of'859-1'! abated, at least temporarily, this week when, after reaching the aforementioned low on Tuesday, the market sharply reversed itself,and closed' up decisively on heavy volume. Further advances on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday morning brought the index to an intra-day peak of 888.44 on Thursdaybefore profit-taking set in. The week's close was 879. 17 . As was pointed out last week, the decline had brought all of our short and intermediate term indicators into sharply oversold territory. When oversold territory is reached, -. .aE. that is lastweek's-mid-weeI upsurge produced just such a rebound. Obviously; 'at this point no base exists for any substantial advance, and it wiU be necessary for one to form. This can be accomplished by continued backing and filling around current levels. Possibly involved may be .a testing oLthe old low, or even a move to moderate new lows .. Whatever 'form it takes, the ultimate formation of a base appears to be the most likely po\'sibility at this point. A less likely possibility'is a reversal of the short and' intermediate 'term- bUY'Signals already given by a new move deeper into oversold territory. With all the variou!i permutations and combinations of market moves possible at'this stage, it 1S well to keep a few simple thoughts i'1 mind. The market froin,October, 1962 through May 1965 could be simply as moving within a narrow and clearly defined uptrend channel. The most likely description of the market phase which began this month will likely be a fairly wide sideways trading range. Such a iSa tbe normal postlude to a long upswing, and there appears no particular not again be the ca In such a market, two factors become a – the identification of intermediate term buying and selling points and . With the move into over- sold territory, we noted in last week's t added to our recommended list if downside price targets were lry-torecognize any future intermiit seging points and use these to remove from our recommended list those s k' term technical action has deteriorated. Some of the stocks adde 0 s !eff are reviewed briefly below. AMERICAN 0 AL (41) has expended some 46 million, almost 16 per share, during tn s on new plant and equipment, and the fruits of this ex- pansion are now beginn ng e seen in operating results. Earnings, 2. 61 per share in 1964, reached an 8-yea eak and further improvement is likely in 1965, as evidenced by the March quarter in w ich 72 per share was earned vs. 56 in the like 1964 period. Mar- gins have also increased in each of the last two years and appear likely to do so again in ' 1965. All this is especially noteworthy since current prices mark the stock at less than six- teen 1964 results and less than fourteen times estimated 1965 earnings for an equity that consistently achieved multiples in the upper 20's throughout the 1957-1962 period. Amon the new facilities coming on stream for this major producer of boron and potash products and electrochemicals is a titanium dioxide pigment plant which opened last month and should add appreciably to earning p.ower. INTERNATIONAL PAPER (31) is the largest paper making company in the world and has extensive timber holdings. lnd for, the paper industry, 'this leader in the field should enjoy good earnings growth over the tlext , few years. It has, from a technical point of view, field in a base formation fo'r more than five years, and the ultimate upside potential is more than double current levels. It therefore appears to be a worthwhile.,ho1d.itnglll'cor-.high grade accounts and is accordingly being add'ed to our recommended list for qualityan.d long term growth. The 1. 20 dividend provides a 3. yield. Other stocks being added to the list last week include Interstate Motor Freight, 'Perki Elmer and Radio Corporation of America and they will be reviewed in subsequent editions of 1his letter. Dow-Jones Ind. 879. 17 Dow-Jones Rails 196.56 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This market letter Is published for your con,,-emence And mformation and IS not fln olter to Bell or A. soIidtatlon to buy An,. -.rities The in- formation was obtained from sources we believe to t.' reliable. but we do not JNnIRl'Itee Its n((urhCV Wahlon & Co., Inc. I\nd its oftircrs. direrton! qr emJ'JIOyeeB may have an Interest U\ or purdlfl..se and Bell the seUntH's referred t.o herein.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 28, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 28, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - June 28, 1965
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, — Walston &- Co. Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL fUNDS MUNICIPAL BONOS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges TABEll'S MARKET lETTER OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS June 28, 1965 After a two-day technical rally of thirty points from the June 15th intra-day low of 859.13 in the Dow-Jones Ind\lJSctr.ia1srto the June 17th intra-day high of 884. 44, the market turned down again last week to reach a new low for the move at Friday's intra-day low of 849.75. This level compares with the December intra-day low of 850. 19. Moreover, Friday' closing price level of 854.36 was below the December low closing of 857.45. Under the Dow Theory this constitutes a bear market signal. This could bring some further selling into the market but, in our opinion, the Dow Theory is outmoded and has give\l several false signals in the past when the market low was reached shortly after a Dow sell signal was given. Our opinion expressed several weeks ago still holds. We believe the market would be in a buy- mg area In…….. '!. the 850- -8- 20 ra-ng- e.-… – – .. , . – – – – JZ – \9ur opinion of the long term outlook for the stock market has not changed. We believe the market in 1961 reached a major top in the advance that started from the 1949 low around 160 in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average to 741. 30 in November, 1961..JThe market during this twelve-year period advanced in a five-wave pattern with three advances and two correct ionary moves. CAll stocks did not reach their highs at the same time. Some groups, like the oils, reached their highs as early as 1957. Other groups, like the steels, reached high in 1959. The glamour/ growth issues reached their highs in 1961. In the 1961 period the act- ion of the market showed all the indications of a classical top. There was frantic overspecu- lation in glamour issues with pIE ratios in some cases reaching 100-or-more times earn- ings. This was followed by the 1962 break. The 1962 decline to 525 was 29 and was the sharpest decline in twenty-five years and fully corrected advance. It is our thesis that the market reached a major top in the 1957-19 p – nd a major low in the 1960-1962 period. This overlapping of dates is ef c orne groups, like the oils, reached their lows in 1960 rather than 1962. \YV CI'he usual technical pattern after a major op, IS a three-wave consolidating move in order for most stocks to form a bro pat prior to a major long term ad- – – – -.- efirst was the 1962 decline. The ,WWthe ll)63-1965 advanceJIn this second wave, the averages reached new high ter 't was extremely selective. Of the thirty stocks in the Dow-Jones teen moved above their respective 1957-1961 high In the entire mar p eaching new highs was even less. This letter has felt for some time that 1 CO d e that started three years ago had reached a mature stage of development and ad autionary attitude as the market advanced. In December, we advised a gradual deve ent of a 25 cash reserve by selling on strength as issues ed their upside potential. C.The uptrend channel in which the market has held since the Cuban crisis low has ended and will, in our opinion, be succeeded by a broad trading area which will be featured by wide swings both up and down. The outer limits of this range are not yet clearJOn the downside, the potential top at the 910-905 level indicates the area we mention- ed two weeks ago of 850-820. At Friday's low of 849.75, the Average had reached the 850 level and was less than 4 from the lower limit of 820. This would appear to be the down- side risk at this stage. A broader top using the November high of 895 would read a bit lowe at about 790, but because of the sharply oversold position of the market, this appears un- likely at this stage and we would consider 850-820 as the buying area. The upper limit of the broad trading range which we envision as the. n,! possible to ascertain until a base nasformed–If toe market followed the 1956-195'Tpattern,- – which it resembles, the Average could move back to near the old high. The third wave move ment we envision is not comparable in any way, from a technical viewpoint, to the 1962 de- cline. The present move is in the nature of a broad consolidation to build up and enlarge base patterns prior to muchThigherdevels in the latter half of the 1960 's(The market cou11 remain in this third-wave movement for a year or longer with the Averages and individual issues showing wide price swings.The lower limits of the range should be viewed as a buy- ing opportunity. The upper limits should be viewed as a selling opportunity in issues with below-average longer term attraction Dow-Jones Ind. 854. 36 Dow-Jones Rails 190.74 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS market letter IS pubhshed ror your convenience p.nd InformatIOn Rnn IS not Rn ofter to seU or R solidt.ation to buy fmy aeeurltaes Th(' In- formntlon \l,RS obtamed from sour('t') we h,-heve to Lt' reliable but we cio not R'Unrant('e its Ilccurl\ry v..'nlRton Co. Int'. Rnd t,.. offirclS. dlrertors or employees may have an mterest In or purchllSe and sell the rdt'lred to herein WN301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – July 06, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 06, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - July 06, 1965
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r- Walston & Co. —–Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS lABEll'S MARKET lETTER July 6, 1965 The Dow-Jones Industrial Average entered our suggested 850-820 buying area and rebounded sharply on heavy volume to close 20.80 points higher on the week at 875. 16. An intra-day low of 832.74 was reached on Tuesday and was followed by an intra-day high of 878.40 on Friday. Considering the sharply oversold condition of the market after an 11. 8 decline in eight weeks, it is difficult to figure just how far the rebound in the Averages might carry. Steep declines, caused largely by emotiJnahcharrgesllI'ather than by specific economic developments, can reverse quite sharply. A comparable 11.80/0 decline in eight in April of 1956 was followed by a complete retracement of the decline in two months. Our opinion on the market pattern for the foreseeable future is that the uptrend channel . rom the October, 1962 low has ended arid -will b-e-roeplaced oy a b-ioad-trnding-area with U wide price swings both up and down. During this period the action of individual stocks will be far more important than swings in the market averageiwe would watch closely stocks that are showing above average relative strength and would concentrate our attention on issues that at last week's low held above the low they had reached in December when the Industrial Average was at the 850.19 level. One such a stock was Radio Corp. of America (34 1/8) which, at this week's low,fail- ed to penetrate its December bottom of 31. The technical action of RCA has been interestin Early in 1964 it reachd a high of 35, then reacted and, throughout most of 1964 and early 1965, held in the 27-34 range. Early this year it posted an upside breakout from this range. In our June 14th letter we recommended its purchase on any reaction to the support level of 32, and the dip to this level subsequently occurred. The objective of over 60 per share. to have an upside 0 Such an objective appears attainable over e this growth compan Obviously, the most interesting aspect of RCA at company did most of the initial research and largest individual prOducer of tubes. Sales i a color television. The in 's area and is now by far the 'on sets have been growing at an astronomical rate, they are will no doubt accelerate as more pro .to 500/0oincrease.this year. The trend W cast in color, and yet the market is far from saturated. At the is a color Yet televis' n y of every seventeen television sets in use V a e only string to RCA's bow. Its data processing oper ation has recently itt ack; backlog is up; and its new Spectra 70 computer line is expected to achiev re ely favorable reception. Defense business is sizable and NB profits continue good. sent prices mark the stock at just over twenty times estimated 1965 profits of 1. 60 er share. The stock is added to our recommended list for quality and long term growth. While certainly not of the quality of RCA, Automatic Canteen (20 3/8) also, on re- cent break, held above its December low. It also appears to have a highly interesting growt potential. The company is both an operator and manufacturer of vending 'TIachines, but the greatest portion of revenues comes from vending operations and food services rather than manufacturing. Total revenues have shown an increase in every year since 1955, but net earnings have been erratic, due to various non-recurring items and other factors causing pressure on margins. Nevertheless, 1964-1965 earnings (the fiscal year ends September) are expected to reach a new peak at 1. 10 per share, and further growth appears in pros- pect as the demand for fooa service continues to grow. It now appears that any change in coin silver content will not seriously affect the company or the industry, and, therefore, one potential cloud On the horizon appears to have been removed. On the assumption that per-share net can more closely approximate sales growth in the future, the stock appears to have merit as a growth speculation. The technical pattern, meanwhile, is highly attractive. The stock from 1962 to mid- 1964 held in a base formation in the 10-17 area. The upside penetration of this base indi- cated a possible 40, and good support exists not too far below current levels. Other stocks mentioned in our June 14th letter, anclca.'ddieu;to.our recommended list as buying levels were reached, includeAmerican Hospital Supply (27 1/8) bought at 25, and the previously mentioned American Potash (401/4) bought at 39, International Paper (313/8) bought at 31, Interstate Motor Freight (27 1/2) bought at 28 and Perkin-Elmer (51 1/4)bough at 48. EDMUND W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 875.16 Dour-Jones 97 70 WALSTON & CO. lNC. ThiS market letter IS published or )our COil nlenre 1'11' I/lirmntlon and 1; ,!l fTr to '1,,11 or J\ w\lrlh\tlon to b\l\ Rn seeuntiM thsrU''1ed Th(' \J\- formation WI\' obtaln('(i from !IOU ret's We! lilliCH, to 1. f.hallle, but \' ito not gu,'l,lnt(. ll(UI 1('\ \\',,J.lun S. C, In. olnd It!! dlrt'dor'l or emJ'llo)ei'!l rna) have nn interest In or .lIltj ;,1 uf'II!'.! to nl'I!I

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